new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
PAGE 23 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Go fuck yourself if you're trying to tell everyone that you don't have any bad and unhealthy habits.
I enjoy smoking. I don't particularly enjoy the idea of injecting a Chinese/Russian/US collaboration approved by Bill Gates and the CDC into my veins.
I know exactly what I'm inhaling.
lol - you know what you're inhaling? No you don't and you wouldn't care if you did. But I don't blame you if you won't take anything with Trump's ok or name on it. His water would probably kill you.
You got me on the bad habit though - my worst habit is I reply to your stupid sh*t.
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Quote:If you really think that Russia and the USA are collaborating on anything then you need to dial back your conspiracy theories by... a whole lot.
SIX: I don't particularly enjoy the idea of injecting a Chinese/Russian/US collaboration approved by Bill Gates and the CDC into my veins.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I thought it was pretty ludicrous of you to post that ALL of the world governments were "colluding" to create a Covid hoax, but I let it go because it's possible to think that most governments - while not colluding - might have the same interest in an authoritarian response, leading to similar behaviors even if not cooperating directly.
But at this point, SIX, you're sounding as nutty as Pirate News with his Templar-Jewish-Communist-BritishRoyal-Nazi-Mason-whathaveyou conspiracy, where he lumps them all together even tho they had competing interests.
Come in from the dark side, SIX, and into the light of day!
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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I heard that there were 7 deaths among all of the United States Armed Forces.
That would seem an interesting subset to look at.
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Quote:400k people in 10 days vs. 100 days of Portland.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
By sheer numbers, Portland doesn't come close to the 400,000+ person Sturgis superspreader event, which was followed by sharp outbreaks in both N (150/M -> 350/M) and S (100/M -> 400/M) Dakota.
Portland rioters were known to be 1,000 per night, and they seemed to roam around to Seattle, Kenosha, wherever, and so they likely rotated through the crowds. Can't be surprised if they had 40k different individual participant rioters. That really seems like a superspreader event tome, more so than a 10 day party in the hinterlands.
And the population of Portland is almost 600k all on it's own.
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Maybe you could dig thru the internet and come up with more solid numbers, and pursue this on your own.
But even if there were 40k professional and dedicated amateur rioters 'roaming' through the US - and I seriously doubt it's even 1k - your assumed 40k is still only a tenth of Sturgis.
And you have to remember this about Sturgis, people make a point of coming from all over the country to get together there and mingle in the same place and at the same time ... and then going back home.
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Signy, if you have good info on the Russian vaccine I'd appreciate it. I've truly not been following it because I assume pretty much all the news is fake and geared toward proving "Russia = bad" no matter what the facts are.
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of note for Signy and me
The coronavirus may have reached Los Angeles even before China announced its outbreak
Researchers from UCLA and their colleagues at the University of Washington documented an unmistakable uptick in patients seeking treatment for coughs. The increase began the week of Dec. 22, 2019, and persisted through the end of February.
The researchers didn’t conduct any diagnostic tests, so they can’t say with certainty when doctors first encountered anyone infected with the virus that came to be known as SARS-CoV-2. But if the coronavirus had indeed been spreading under the radar since around Christmas, the pattern of patient visits to UCLA facilities would have looked a lot like what actually happened, they wrote in a study published Thursday in the Journal of Medical Internet Research.
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-may-reached-los-angeles-144529852.h
tml
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
You got me on the bad habit though - my worst habit is I reply to your stupid sh*t.
Who knows...
Maybe one day it might kill you.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:If you really think that Russia and the USA are collaborating on anything then you need to dial back your conspiracy theories by... a whole lot.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
SIX: I don't particularly enjoy the idea of injecting a Chinese/Russian/US collaboration approved by Bill Gates and the CDC into my veins.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Why is that?
So what that Trump and Putin seem to get along fine. There's nothing wrong with the US and Russia getting along. Especially when China is a much greater threat that our legacy media just finds it impossible to say anything negative about.
Overpopulation is the world's biggest problem today, which is also something that nobody ever wants to talk about either. It is also a problem that effects every single person on the planet, no matter their race, sex, nationality, religion or the political makeup of their country.
Trust me, there are people with a lot of money and power that talk about it every day. And there is zero doubt that controlling said population is one of the most important agendas on all of their dockets.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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So, I have a lot of info about SARS-CoV-2 and I thought I'd recap it here, starting with 'origins'.
After a brief flurry of speculation and some rather (apparently) hurried analysis pinning the virus on bats with it then passaging through pangolins - with some sideways discussions about laboratory origins - the whole topic died down into a mumble of maybes that seem to have faded away.
As far as I can tell, there is STILL no definitive answer! but this paper does a pretty good takedown of early results.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cla.12425
It faults most of the research for looking at very few samples from a very limited number of sources (47 human, 2 bat, 1 pangolin). For example, only 1 sample of SARS-CoV-2 was isolated from a sick and captive pangolin at the Wuhan market - and there was no indication whether the humans got sick from the pangolin, or the other way around!
It faults research that looks for overall similarity between viruses, when that similarity may be due to an extremely stable 'template' that's survived a lot of evolutionary pressure over a long time and many species.
And it faults research that focuses on the ACE-2 receptor, which is medically important, but ignores what might be vital differences that are NOT part of that binding function.
There are other points it makes very clearly and cogently.
This paper, while more limited, makes some of the same points: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.26261
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Honestly, how are we supposed to trust anything anybody ever says about the origin of COVID?
The Chinese have been lying about everything from the start and continue to do so with their flat out lies on number of positive cases and deaths.
But that should come as no surprise to anybody since we all know for a fact that the Chinese government controls all of the businesses and so-called media there. The Chinese media is nothing but an arm of the Communist dictatorship of China.
What should be worrisome is that the CDC, the WHO and Johns Hopkins go along with and post those lies for the world to see when they're adding up the so-called numbers. And OUR OWN legacy media, for the most part, is also an accomplice to this lie as well.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Fortunately, genetic analysis can be, has been, and is, being carried out all over the globe. Unfortunately, a quick update through google scholar (sort by date) doesn't show many recent publications.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
You got me on the bad habit though - my worst habit is I reply to your stupid sh*t.
Who knows...
Maybe one day it might kill you.
My money is on you killing yourself first:
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Quote:Nope, nothing wrong with the idea, as long as our interests aren't crossed. BUT with all of the warhawks and neocons IN BOTH PARTIES infesting our spook agencies, Congress, and the State Depatment... evey single one of them trying to bring down Trump on anything, including a revival of RUSSIA!RUSSIA! the chance of actual collaboration with Russia in ANYTHING is nil.
SIX: I don't particularly enjoy the idea of injecting a Chinese/Russian/US collaboration approved by Bill Gates and the CDC into my veins.
SIGNY: If you really think that Russia and the USA are collaborating on anything then you need to dial back your conspiracy theories by... a whole lot.
SIX: Why is that?
So what that Trump and Putin seem to get along fine. There's nothing wrong with the US and Russia getting along.
Quote:China is an economic threat, not a military one ... unless we make it so. And however our economy was damaged and jonbs lost in our bonding with China, we did it to ourselves. Or, at least, our own political and corporate elites did it to us. Joining a the hip with China has been a bipartisan project since Nixon, including Bush1, Clinton, Bush2, and Obama. Nobody forced our industries to rush over to take advantage of cheap Chinese labor.
Especially when China is a much greater threat that our legacy media just finds it impossible to say anything negative about.
Quote:Russia doesnot see either global warming OR overpopuation as THEIR problem. They have vast wide-open territory that could prolly use a little warming. As long as they can control the influx of people from other areas, WTF do THEY care?
Overpopulation is the world's biggest problem today, which is also something that nobody ever wants to talk about either. It is also a problem that effects every single person on the planet, no matter their race, sex, nationality, religion or the political makeup of their country.
Quote:Putin has more-or-less taken Russian oligarchs out of Russian politics, and in any case I don't think that Russian oligarchs have that same concern.
Trust me, there are people with a lot of money and power that talk about it every day. And there is zero doubt that controlling said population is one of the most important agendas on all of their dockets.
IMHO this concern among the eites about overpopulation is purely a Chinese and western phenomenon... Soros, Gates, Lagarde etc. And China has already stablized its population with its one-child policy. And if our elites were that concerned about overpopulation, how does locking down economies reduce population? I see it more as a power grab ... and btw a step towards "the great [financial] reset" that some people claim is coming ... not a step towards population reduction.
But I think this all belongs in another thread.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:Let's see. 400k x 10 days = 4M person-days. 40k x 100 days = 4M person-days.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Maybe you could dig thru the internet and come up with more solid numbers, and pursue this on your own.
But even if there were 40k professional and dedicated amateur rioters 'roaming' through the US - and I seriously doubt it's even 1k - your assumed 40k is still only a tenth of Sturgis.
And you have to remember this about Sturgis, people make a point of coming from all over the country to get together there and mingle in the same place and at the same time ... and then going back home.
My gosh, you are so correct, those are widely disparate numbers!!
Comparing 4M person-days to 4M person-days is just preposterous, unthinkable!!
I used the 1,000 persons per night figure which was reported by the Rioter's propaganda reporters on the scene. Are you suggesting they are lying? I have heard no other reports to refute their validity.
Traveling from Portland to Kenosha, Miami, NYC, LA, Seattle, Chicago, Austin, St. Louis - that does kinda seem like "across the USA" to me>
You may have heard that Milwaukee is The Home of Harley-Davidson. So yes, I do know about Sturgis.
That must be some incredible spike in cases in Portland that you are trying to deny.
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Quote:I had thought all reasonable folk had understood that Wuhan Virus was in SoCal before November.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
of note for Signy and me
The coronavirus may have reached Los Angeles even before China announced its outbreak
Researchers from UCLA and their colleagues at the University of Washington documented an unmistakable uptick in patients seeking treatment for coughs. The increase began the week of Dec. 22, 2019, and persisted through the end of February.
The researchers didn’t conduct any diagnostic tests, so they can’t say with certainty when doctors first encountered anyone infected with the virus that came to be known as SARS-CoV-2. But if the coronavirus had indeed been spreading under the radar since around Christmas, the pattern of patient visits to UCLA facilities would have looked a lot like what actually happened, they wrote in a study published Thursday in the Journal of Medical Internet Research.
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-may-reached-los-angeles-144529852.h
tml
Are you saying you didn't get the news, or are you denying it? Or not infusing your link with known data?
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It stands to reason that mask-wearing would reduce the viral load if people were exposed to the virus, and with a smaller initial inoculum people would become less ill. It works that way for other communicable diseases, so why not SARS-Cov2?
Up until now, tho, there haven't been any studies. Now there are two which support that hypothesis
Quote:https://www.consumerlab.com/answers/how-to-make-covid-19-mask-at-home-
As wearing a mask may reduce the amount of virus to which a wearer is exposed, it has been postulated that even if a mask-wearing person becomes infected, the reduced viral load to which they were exposed may mean that they suffer a milder disease. Supporting this theory is a study that showed that hamsters protected with a surgical mask partition were less likely to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 than those without the partition, and those that did get sick had milder illness. In addition, on cruise ships with COVID-19 outbreaks, the majority of infected patients (81%) were asymptomatic on a ship that had provided masks to all passengers and staff compared to only 18% of cases being asymptomatic on a cruise ship without masking (Gandhi, J Gen Intern Med 2020; Gandhi, N Engl J Med 2020).
as-effective-as-n95
This is behind a pay wall, you may not be able to access the site.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Proof that Covid was created in Wuhan Lab?
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chinese-virologist-claims-she-proof-02570016
4.html
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Quote:THANKS SO MUCH for the link, Signy!!
https://www.consumerlab.com/answers/how-to-make-covid-19-mask-at-home-
as-effective-as-n95
This is behind a pay wall, you may not be able to access the site.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:THANKS for the link, JSF! I saw that in the news and bookmarked it on my 'puter, but - as I don't for probably 95% of my bookmarks - I didn't post it here.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Proof that Covid was created in Wuhan Lab?
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chinese-virologist-claims-she-proof-02570016
4.html
ETA: Despite claims that a laboratory origin has been debunked by this paper https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 , the takedown of many such papers due to poor data, faulty analysis, and unjustified conclusions, by a genuine virologist who specializes in viral evolution has left the 'origins' questions open, imo.
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But here's a link to a far more extended article with extensive quotes, and a link to her paper @ scribd.
The analysis moves MY needle more over to the 'human-made' side (though I admit I only somewhat glanced it over and didn't critically look at it for gaps, errors, or contradictions).
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/rogue-chinese-virologist-joins-twitt
er-publishes-evidence-covid-19-created-lab
This looks to be the link to the paper https://zenodo.org/record/4028830#.X19xByXZglR
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Quote:I also forgot to mention that the population of Portland was 583,000 - and Portland metropolitan area was 2.4 million, thereby diluting any "/100,000" or per capita figures.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
By sheer numbers, Portland doesn't come close to the 400,000+ person Sturgis superspreader event, which was followed by sharp outbreaks in both N (150/M -> 350/M) and S (100/M -> 400/M) Dakota.
The population of the entire state of North Dakota was 762,000 and South Dakota was 884,000.
Your numbers don't mean what you think they mean.
Your stated figures would amount to about 250 extra cases in SD, about 150 for ND.
Equivalent extra cases in Portland Metro would be about 100/M for 250 cases, and about 65/M for 150 cases.
Are you really claiming that Portland metro area did not increase by 100/M cases or even 65/M cases during these 100 days?
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
COVID-19 Can Wreck Your Heart, Even if You Haven’t Had Any Symptoms
A growing body of research is raising concerns about the cardiac consequences of the coronavirus
We’ve also known for a while that some COVID-19 patients’ hearts are taking a beating, too—but over the past few weeks, the evidence has strengthened that cardiac damage can happen even among people who have never displayed symptoms of coronavirus infection. And these frightening findings help explain why college and professional sports leagues are proceeding with special caution as they make decisions about whether or not to play.
More than a dozen athletes at Power Five conference schools have been identified as having myocardial injury following coronavirus infection, according to ESPN; two of the conferences—the Big Ten and the Pac-12—already have announced they are postponing all competitive sports until 2021. And in Major League Baseball, Boston Red Sox ace pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez told reporters that he felt “100 years old” as a result of his bout with COVID, and of MLB’s shortened season because of myocarditis—an inflammation of the heart muscle, often triggered by a virus. Said Rodriguez: “That’s [the heart is] the most important part of your body, so when you hear that … I was kind of scared a little. Now that I know what it is, it’s still scary.”
Why are these athletes (and their leagues and conferences) taking such extreme precautions? It’s because of the stakes. Though it often resolves without incident, myocarditis can lead to severe complications such as abnormal heart rhythms, chronic heart failure and even sudden death.
Here’s the background: Myocarditis appears to result from the direct infection of the virus attacking the heart, or possibly as a consequence of the inflammation triggered by the body’s overly aggressive immune response. And it is not age-specific: In The Lancet, doctors recently reported on an 11-year-old child with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C)—a rare illness—who died of myocarditis and heart failure. At autopsy, pathologists were able to identify coronavirus particles present in the child’s cardiac tissue, helping to explain the virus’ direct involvement in her death. In fact, researchers are reporting the presence of viral protein in the actual heart muscle, of six deceased patients. Of note is the fact that these patients were documented to have died of lung failure, having had neither clinical signs of heart involvement, nor a prior history of cardiac disease.
Ossama Samuel, associate chief of cardiology at Mount Sinai Beth Israel in New York, told me about a cluster of younger adults developing myocarditis, some of them a month or so after they had recovered from COVID-19. One patient, who developed myocarditis four weeks after believing he had recovered from the virus, responded to a course of steroid treatment only to develop a recurrence in the form of pericarditis (an inflammation of the sac surrounding the heart). A second patient, in her 40s, now has reduced heart function from myocarditis, and a third—an athletic man in his 40s—is experiencing recurring and dangerous ventricular heart rhythms, necessitating that he wear a LifeVest defibrillator for protection. His MRI also demonstrates fibrosis and scarring of his heart muscle, which may be permanent, and he may ultimately require placement of a permanent defibrillator.
J.N. ... told me that COVID-19 symptoms first appeared in his case in late March. ... Just 34 years old, he was diagnosed with COVID-induced myocarditis and severe heart failure. Doctors admitted him to the intensive care unit and placed him on a lifesaving intra-aortic balloon pump due to the very poor function of his heart. He spent two weeks in the hospital, has suffered recurrences since his discharge, and now says, “I’m very careful. I’m very concerned about the length of time I’ve been feeling sick, and if these symptoms are lifelong orNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
COVID-19 Can Wreck Your Heart, Even if You Haven’t Had Any Symptoms
A growing body of research is raising concerns about the cardiac consequences of the coronavirus
We’ve also known for a while that some COVID-19 patients’ hearts are taking a beating, too—but over the past few weeks, the evidence has strengthened that cardiac damage can happen even among people who have never displayed symptoms of coronavirus infection. And these frightening findings help explain why college and professional sports leagues are proceeding with special caution as they make decisions about whether or not to play.
More than a dozen athletes at Power Five conference schools have been identified as having myocardial injury following coronavirus infection, according to ESPN; two of the conferences—the Big Ten and the Pac-12—already have announced they are postponing all competitive sports until 2021. And in Major League Baseball, Boston Red Sox ace pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez told reporters that he felt “100 years old” as a result of his bout with COVID, and of MLB’s shortened season because of myocarditis—an inflammation of the heart muscle, often triggered by a virus. Said Rodriguez: “That’s [the heart is] the most important part of your body, so when you hear that … I was kind of scared a little. Now that I know what it is, it’s still scary.”
Why are these athletes (and their leagues and conferences) taking such extreme precautions? It’s because of the stakes. Though it often resolves without incident, myocarditis can lead to severe complications such as abnormal heart rhythms, chronic heart failure and even sudden death.
Here’s the background: Myocarditis appears to result from the direct infection of the virus attacking the heart, or possibly as a consequence of the inflammation triggered by the body’s overly aggressive immune response. And it is not age-specific: In The Lancet, doctors recently reported on an 11-year-old child with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C)—a rare illness—who died of myocarditis and heart failure. At autopsy, pathologists were able to identify coronavirus particles present in the child’s cardiac tissue, helping to explain the virus’ direct involvement in her death. In fact, researchers are reporting the presence of viral protein in the actual heart muscle, of six deceased patients. Of note is the fact that these patients were documented to have died of lung failure, having had neither clinical signs of heart involvement, nor a prior history of cardiac disease.
Ossama Samuel, associate chief of cardiology at Mount Sinai Beth Israel in New York, told me about a cluster of younger adults developing myocarditis, some of them a month or so after they had recovered from COVID-19. One patient, who developed myocarditis four weeks after believing he had recovered from the virus, responded to a course of steroid treatment only to develop a recurrence in the form of pericarditis (an inflammation of the sac surrounding the heart). A second patient, in her 40s, now has reduced heart function from myocarditis, and a third—an athletic man in his 40s—is experiencing recurring and dangerous ventricular heart rhythms, necessitating that he wear a LifeVest defibrillator for protection. His MRI also demonstrates fibrosis and scarring of his heart muscle, which may be permanent, and he may ultimately require placement of a permanent defibrillator.
J.N. ... told me that COVID-19 symptoms first appeared in his case in late March. ... Just 34 years old, he was diagnosed with COVID-induced myocarditis and severe heart failure. Doctors admitted him to the intensive care unit and placed him on a lifesaving intra-aortic balloon pump due to the very poor function of his heart. He spent two weeks in the hospital, has suffered recurrences since his discharge, and now says, “I’m very careful. I’m very concerned about the length of time I’ve been feeNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:THANKS for the link, JSF! I saw that in the news and bookmarked it on my 'puter, but - as I don't for probably 95% of my bookmarks - I didn't post it here.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Proof that Covid was created in Wuhan Lab?
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chinese-virologist-claims-she-proof-02570016
4.html
ETA: Despite claims that a laboratory origin has been debunked by this paper https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 , the takedown of many such papers due to poor data, faulty analysis, and unjustified conclusions, by a genuine virologist who specializes in viral evolution has left the 'origins' questions open, imo.
Apparently that doc was interviewed on Tucker Carlson a day or so after the story broke, several days sago by now.
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Quote:There IS no spike in Portland. Pendleton and Ontario do seem to have that problem, though! https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/oregon-coronavirus-cases.h
That must be some incredible spike in cases in Portland that you are trying to deny.
tml
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Quote:WTF are you babbling about?
I had thought all reasonable folk had understood that Wuhan Virus was in SoCal before November.
Are you saying you didn't get the news, or are you denying it? Or not infusing your link with known data?
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Quote:What your poor brain seems to be missing is the absence of a SPIKE in Portland related to the protests/(riots).
By sheer numbers... during these 100 days?
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CDC abruptly removes guidance about airborne coronavirus transmission, says update 'was posted in error'
The guidance had been quietly updated on Friday, according to the CDC's website. CNN was first to report the change on Sunday. The CDC responded to CNN just before noon on Monday to say it was reverting to the previous guidance.
Despite several studies that have shown the novel coronavirus can spread through small particles in the air, the CDC page now says that Covid-19 is thought to spread mainly between people in close contact -- about 6 feet -- and "through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes or talks." This is the same language it posted months ago.
In language posted Friday and now removed, CDC said Covid-19 most commonly spread between people who are in close contact with one another, and went on to say it's known to spread "through respiratory droplets or small particles, such as those in aerosols, produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, sings, talks or breathes."
These particles can cause infection when "inhaled into the nose, mouth, airways, and lungs," the agency said. "This is thought to be the main way the virus spreads."
"There is growing evidence that droplets and airborne particles can remain suspended in the air and be breathed in by others, and travel distances beyond 6 feet (for example, during choir practice, in restaurants, or in fitness classes)," the page said in the Friday update, which has since been removed. "In general, indoor environments without good ventilation increase this risk."
In the Friday update, the CDC had added new measures to protect yourself in others, including recommendations to use air purifiers to reduce airborne germs in indoors spaces and clear guidance to "stay at least 6 feet away from others, whenever possible." The updated CDC page had also changed language around asymptomatic transmission, shifting from saying "some people without symptoms may be able to spread the virus" to saying "people who are infected but do not show symptoms can spread the virus to others." That language has now been removed.
Also on Friday, CDC updated its coronavirus testing guidance to stress that anyone who has been in contact with an infected person should be tested for coronavirus. A controversial earlier update was not written by CDC scientists and posted online before it had undergone the normal scientific review process, two sources confirmed to CNN last week.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/21/health/cdc-reverts-airborne-transmi
ssion-guidance/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/21/world/covid-19-coronavirus.html
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-09-20/coronavirus-aero
sol-airborne-spread
Also
Despite progress since July, most states are going backward with Covid-19 as doctors worry about 'a very apocalyptic fall'
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/21/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.
html
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My guess is that the new guidance was based on at least 1 CDC study that showed eating at restaurants was a significant source of transmission.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/09/11/91207
6989/adults-with-covid-19-twice-as-likely-to-have-eaten-at-restaurants-cdc-study
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/09/10/Bars-restaurants-are-COVID-
19-infection-hotspots-study-confirms/6691599773114/
And, having some idea how web-pages get changed, I suspect someone at the CDC thought it was important enough to get the new guidance out sooner rather than later, even if they had to say to the Trump Admin OOPS! my butterfingers!, and even if they faced potential retaliation up to and including losing their job(s).
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CDC admits it was wrong about Wuhan Coronavirus, yet again?
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/cdc-says-coronavirus-spreads-mainly-03495028
8.html
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Quote:What your poor brain seems to be missing is the absence of a SPIKE in Portland related to the protests/(riots).
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:
By sheer numbers... during these 100 days?
I gave you generous opportunities to correct your Libtard Maths, but it seems these gifts were in vain.
Portland City Officials were far too busy starting and leading Riots, Looting, Arson, so they didn't have time to provide Covid case data specific to Portland. So let us use Multnomah County data.
A graph of the Multnomah Co Covid Cases is effectively 2 linear graphs. The first part is a linear ramp from about 31 March to the end of May. Then a curve up for a couple weeks, and then the 2nd part (so far) which is practically another linear ramp but at a drastically steeper incline.
With about 120 cases on 31 March,
2185 cases by 1 June.
This provides a baseline of about 233 per week for these 62 days.
Then the next ramp:
1665 cases by 18 June.
6442 cases by 8 Sept.
This is an average of 408 new cases per week for these 82 days.
Including:
3620 cases, 619 per week on 22 July.
319 per week on 1 Sept.
Golly, I wonder what kind of superspreader event occurred starting about 2 week before mid-June, and continuing into September. (The end of this is when most College towns in America are recording breakouts, yet Portland has New Cases practically in freefall.)
Sorry, full post is a couple posts after this.
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links to actual data needed
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Quote:Apparently that doc was interviewed on Tucker Carlson a day or so after the story broke, several days sago by now.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:THANKS for the link, JSF! I saw that in the news and bookmarked it on my 'puter, but - as I don't for probably 95% of my bookmarks - I didn't post it here.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Proof that Covid was created in Wuhan Lab?
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chinese-virologist-claims-she-proof-02570016
4.html
ETA: Despite claims that a laboratory origin has been debunked by this paper https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 , the takedown of many such papers due to poor data, faulty analysis, and unjustified conclusions, by a genuine virologist who specializes in viral evolution has left the 'origins' questions open, imo.
I understand there is a 2nd refugee Doctor of Wuhan who is corroborating the information.
He is also reporting that Covid is one of 2 Viruses STORED at th Wuhan facility.
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Quote:What your poor brain seems to be missing is the absence of a SPIKE in Portland related to the protests/(riots).
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:
By sheer numbers... during these 100 days?
I gave you generous opportunities to correct your Libtard Maths, but it seems these gifts were in vain.
Portland City Officials were far too busy starting and leading Riots, Looting, Arson, so they didn't have time to provide Covid case data specific to Portland. So let us use Multnomah County data.
A graph of the Multnomah Co Covid Cases is effectively 2 linear graphs. The first part is a linear ramp from about 31 March to the end of May. Then a curve up for a couple weeks, and then the 2nd part (so far) which is practically another linear ramp but at a drastically steeper incline.
With about 120 cases on 31 March,
2185 cases by 1 June.
This provides a baseline of about 233 per week for these 62 days.
Then the next ramp:
1665 cases by 18 June.
6442 cases by 8 Sept.
This is an average of 408 new cases per week for these 82 days.
Including:
3620 cases, 619 per week on 22 July.
319 per week on 1 Sept.
Golly, I wonder what kind of superspreader event occurred starting about 2 week before mid-June, and continuing into September. (The end of this is when most College towns in America are recording breakouts, yet Portland has New Cases practically in freefall.)
So you are suggesting a one-time spike of 150 cases in North Dakota or a one-time spike of 250 cases in South Dakota are somehow not only not equivalent, but negligible even, to the Spike/Surge of an extra 175 new cases per week, every week, for 100 days.
In only 3 weeks Portland garnered more extra New Cases (525) than the 2 Dakotas combined (400).
Perhaps you can find somebody who is a non-Libtard to explain to you how math works in the real world.
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OK - ACTUAL data from Multnomah County, where Portland is located, that shows ... not what JSF claims.
https://multco.us/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/regional-covid-19-data-da
shboard
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Quote:Select one of the Situation Status reports:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
links to actual data needed
https://www.portland.gov/omf/covid-19-situation-status-reports-emergen
cy-coordination-center
Here is one displaying the 2-stage ramp graph, with the transition occurring shortly after the riots/looting/arsons start:
https://www.portland.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/2020.08.27_portla
nd-situation-report_final.pdf
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Seems like any time there is a black murderer/rapist shot by a cop or a Supreme Court Justice dies that nobody talks about the plandemic anymore.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
https://www.portland.gov/omf/covid-19-situation-status-reports-emergen
cy-coordination-center
https://www.portland.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/2020.08.27_portla
nd-situation-report_final.pdf
Thanks! for the links.
First of all - those graphs are CUMULATIVE graphs of cases and deaths. OF COURSE they'll continue to go up !! since not too many people will revert to 'never infected' or 'undead'.
If you look at the cases by date that I linked https://multco.us/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/regional-covid-19-data-da
shboard , you'll see that the 'cases' started their rise between the week of May 25, 2020* and May 31, 2020 - far too early to be accounted for by any protests/(riots). There needs to be at least a 2 week lag - for people to become symptomatic and go to the doctor.
And cases then peak the week of July 5, 2020 after which they drop off steeply, far too early compared to the ongoing protests/(riots) which should have sustained the outbreak if they were, indeed, the cause.
Second of all, you need to be careful about increases of 'cases' since - as Fearless Leader has noted - the more tests you do, the more 'cases' you'll find. In this instance, you'll see a disconnect between 'cases' and 'deaths' (after accounting for a 2-3 week lag to give confirmed 'cases' time to become 'deaths'). That indicates more testing, uncovering more 'cases'.
'Deaths' is a better measure (after a 4-6 week lag to confirm 'cases' and for those confirmed 'cases' to become 'deaths'.)
*Third, George Floyd died May 25, 2020. As I noted (above) 'cases' and 'deaths' were occurring far too early to be caused by the protests/(riots).
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Oh... just you wait. There will be plenty of undead voting for Democrats by mail.
I keep telling my Grandpa not to vote for Biden, but I don't think he can hear me through 6 feet of dirt.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:1) 2016 Nov: Trump claims millions voted illegally in presidential poll - www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38126438
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Oh... just you wait. There will be plenty of undead voting for Democrats by mail.
I keep telling my Grandpa not to vote for Biden, but I don't think he can hear me through 6 feet of dirt.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
2) 2017 May: Fact-checking Trump's repeated unsubstantiated claim of widespread voter fraud. - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fact-checking-trumps-repeated-unsubsta
ntiated-claim-widespread-voter/story?id=45021067
3) 2018 April: Trump lies about Voter Fraud in California
www.npr.org/2018/04/05/599868312/fact-check-trump-repeats-voter-fraud-
claim-about-california
4) 2019 June: Trump still lying about Voter Fraud
www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/jun/24/donald-trump/pants-fire-trum
ps-latest-california-voter-fraud-cl/
5) 2020 Sept: Finally Trump proves voter fraud - Trump Encourages People in North Carolina to Vote Twice, Which Is Illegal
www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/trump-people-vote-twice.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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This is the biggest problem I mentioned back in the very early days we even started talking about this.
People like Nilbog going door to door harassing hundreds or even thousands of people who probably weren't going to bother voting, collecting those votes, removing votes they don't agree with, then dropping the rest of them off.
There is zero oversight if there is no ID required.
The ONLY reason that you deny that this is going to be a problem is because you know that it will disproportionately serve the side you want to see win.
My one question is though, do you really KNOW that? Or have you only been told that?
Who's to say that the Republicans won't be better at cheating than the Democrats are, now that we've made cheating in elections easier than it ever has been before?
There is actually zero reason to believe that Democrats are going to be better at this than Republicans will be. In fact, if the Republicans are all that is wrong in evil in the world as the Leftists on the boards here insinuate on a daily basis, I'd say that the chances Republicans will be better at this than Democrats is actually quite good.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Your linky crashes my browser.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:
https://www.portland.gov/omf/covid-19-situation-status-reports-emergen
cy-coordination-center
https://www.portland.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/2020.08.27_portla
nd-situation-report_final.pdf
Thanks! for the links.
First of all - those graphs are CUMULATIVE graphs of cases and deaths. OF COURSE they'll continue to go up !! since not too many people will revert to 'never infected' or 'undead'.
If you look at the cases by date that I linked https://multco.us/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/regional-covid-19-data-da
shboard , you'll see that the 'cases' started their rise between the week of May 25, 2020* and May 31, 2020 - far too early to be accounted for by any protests/(riots). There needs to be at least a 2 week lag - for people to become symptomatic and go to the doctor.
And cases then peak the week of July 5, 2020 after which they drop off steeply, far too early compared to the ongoing protests/(riots) which should have sustained the outbreak if they were, indeed, the cause.
Second of all, you need to be careful about increases of 'cases' since - as Fearless Leader has noted - the more tests you do, the more 'cases' you'll find. In this instance, you'll see a disconnect between 'cases' and 'deaths' (after accounting for a 2-3 week lag to give confirmed 'cases' time to become 'deaths'). That indicates more testing, uncovering more 'cases'.
'Deaths' is a better measure (after a 4-6 week lag to confirm 'cases' and for those confirmed 'cases' to become 'deaths'.)
*Third, George Floyd died May 25, 2020. As I noted (above) 'cases' and 'deaths' were occurring far too early to be caused by the protests/(riots).
Yes, I understand how graphs work. Plus derivatives. But I have not seen evidence that you do.
I tried to extract actual data from that Portland.gov site which I linked. Jeez, I thought the Libtards in Madison were horrible at providing WI data. But these Portland Tards are even worse.
There seem to be 2 sequences of data, which don't mesh. I will list both which I could determine. This is all for Multnomah County.
First, I will call this "posted counts"
Ap 2 0122
My 7 0793 thru 7th
My14 0940 +147 thru 13th (6 days)
My21 1018 +078 thru 20th
My28 1093 +075 thru 27th
Jn 4 1228 +135 thru 3rd
Jn11 1407 +179 thru 11th (8 days)
Jn18 1665 +258
Jn25 1970 +305 thru 24/25th
Jl 2 2304 +334 thru 2nd
Jl 9 2697 +393 thru 9th
Jl16 3199 +502 thru 14th (5 days)
Jl23 3748 +549 thru 23rd (9 days)
Jl30 4131 +383 thru 28th (5 days)
Au 6 4574 +443 thru 4th
Au13 5046 +472 thru 11th
Au20 5500 +454
Au27 5822 +322
Se 3 6141 +319
Se10 6442 +301
Se17 6724 +282
Se24 7031 +307
I will call this "calculated counts from posted data"
Ap 2 0122
My 7 0793 thru 7th
My14 0940 +147
My21 1018 +078
My28 1093 +075
Jn 4 1228 +135
Jn11 1407 +179
Jn18 1665 +258
Jn25 1970 +305 thru 24/25th
Jl 2 2304 +334 thru 2nd
Jl 9 2697 +393 thru 9th
Jl16 3005 +308 thru 14th
Jl23 3622 +617 thru 21st
Jl30 4131 +509 thru 28th
Au 6 4574 +443 thru 4th
Au13 5046 +472 thru 11th
Au20 5459 +413
Au27 5822 +363
Se 3 6141 +319
Se10 6442 +301
Se17 6724 +282
Se24 7031 +307
As you can see, with either set of data, prior to June, no week had new cases exceed 150, even with hinky reporting back then.
And then, from 19 June until 9 September, the weekly new case total never falls below 300.
For folk who are not Libtards, this is not a difficult concept to comprehend. Perhaps you can try to explain to one of your non-Libtard friends how new case rates below 150 per week had DROPPED all the way down "steeply" to 300-600 per week, and this means there was no increase during this superspreader event. Let us know how they respond to such ridiculous claims.
In
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Quote:As I mentioned earlier, I check in with CNN every few days just to keep tabs on the (mostly bullshit) that it spews, and there it was, in big bold headlines, mentioning "covid" and "airborne" in the same sentence! The subhead was that the CDC is recognizing that airborne aerosols are a significant source of transmission. (Gee, whooda thunk? I though the Chinese bus study was pretty telling!) But when I tried to click on the article, several times, all I got was an error.
CDC abruptly removes guidance about airborne coronavirus transmission, says update 'was posted in error'
I guess they couldn't pull the headline fast enough.
The follow-on explanation in ZH was that the WHO put pressure on the CDC to retract the "airborne" designation because ... I dunno. Whatever I read didn't stick because it didn't make sense.
So they are sticking with the 6ft distance, handwashing, and substandard masking which works for large droplets but not aerosols.
It's all a matter of size. The smaller the droplet, the farther it will travel, the longer it will stay suspended in air, and the harder it is to filter out. When someone says "airborne" I mistakenly think of a free-floating naked virus particle, which would be incredibly hard to trap and would probably fall into the category of "ultrafine" particle. But in reality the droplets are probably larger, and more amenable to filtration. As water evaporates the droplets get smaller and smaller, but it look like as the droplets dry out so does the virus, which seems to inactivate it.
Outdoor contagion looks to be rare. So possibly things like bike rallies (Sturgis) and protests (many places) don't result in a massive outbreak.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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What you are missing is reproductive log function that living things have. It starts out very slowly, when the initial numbers are low, so it never looks like much at the start. It's very deceiving that way. But then it takes off ...
2^2 = 4
4^2 = 16
16^2 = 256
256^2 = 65,536
65,536^2 = 4,294,967,296
4,294,967,296^2 = 14,844,674,407,000,000,000
... in only 6 steps ... and so on.
Once the virus is in a population, unless active measures are taken to suppress it, the numbers would zoom up anyway. And when you're looking for the start of exponential growth you have to look where the numbers are low, not where they've already gotten high. So, imo, it would be very difficult to say the increase - which btw started earlier than you think - is due to some random but relatively small number of imports, or the natural mathematics of biological increase.
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I have been wondering what effect the travel rate of Americans has had on the caseload, the rate of infection.
I'll post some lists to ruminate on.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-whose-citizens-travel-th
e-most.html
Rank Country Outbound Trips (average trips per person per year) Domestic Trips (average trips per person per year) Total Trips (average trips per person per year)
1 Finland ------- 1.70 5.80 7.50
2 United States - 0.20 6.50 6.70
3 Sweden -------- 1.50 4.40 6.00
4 Denmark ------- 1.40 3.90 5.30
5 Norway -------- 2.00 3.20 5.20
6 Hong Kong ----- 4.30 0.03 4.30
7 New Zealand --- 0.50 3.80 4.30
8 Canada -------- 1.00 3.20 4.10
9 Australia ----- 0.40 3.40 3.80
10 France ------- 0.40 3.10 3.50
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/IS.AIR.PSGR/rankings
Rank Country Value Year
1 United States 889,022,000.00 2018
2 China 611,439,800.00 2018
3 Ireland 167,598,600.00 2018
4 United Kingdom 165,388,600.00 2018
5 India 164,035,600.00 2018
6 Japan 126,387,500.00 2018
7 Turkey 115,595,500.00 2018
8 Indonesia 115,154,100.00 2018
9 Germany 109,796,200.00 2018
10 Brazil 102,110,000.00 2018
11 Russia 99,327,310.00 2018
12 United Arab Emirates 95,533,070.00 2018
13 Canada 89,380,000.00 2018
14 Korea 88,157,580.00 2018
15 Spain 80,672,100.00 2018
16 Thailand 76,053,040.00 2018
17 Australia 75,667,650.00 2018
18 France 70,188,030.00 2018
19 Mexico 64,569,640.00 2018
20 Malaysia 60,481,770.00 2018
21 Hong Kong SAR, China 47,101,820.00 2018
22 Vietnam 47,049,670.00 2018
23 Netherlands 43,996,040.00 2018
24 Philippines 43,080,120.00 2018
25 Singapore 40,401,520.00 2018
26 Saudi Arabia 39,141,660.00 2018
27 Colombia 33,704,040.00 2018
28 Hungary 31,226,850.00 2018
29 Qatar 29,178,920.00 2018
30 Switzerland 28,857,990.00 2018
31 Italy 27,630,440.00 2018
32 Iran 25,604,870.00 2018
33 South Africa 23,921,750.00 2018
34 Chile 19,517,180.00 2018
35 Argentina 18,081,940.00 2018
36 Peru 17,758,530.00 2018
37 Portugal 17,367,960.00 2018
38 New Zealand 17,249,050.00 2018
39 Greece 15,125,930.00 2018
40 Belgium 13,639,490.00 2018
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-number-
of-airline-passengers.html
Rank Country Number Of Air Passengers (2015)
1 United States 798,230,000
2 China 436,183,969
3 United Kingdom 131,449,680
4 Germany 115,540,886
5 Japan 113,762,000
6 Ireland 113,144,501
7 Brazil 102,039,359
8 India 98,927,860
9 Turkey 96,604,665
10 Indonesia 8,868,576
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Quote:Thanks.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:As I mentioned earlier, I check in with CNN every few days just to keep tabs on the (mostly bullshit) that it spews, and there it was, in big bold headlines, mentioning "covid" and "airborne" in the same sentence! The subhead was that the CDC is recognizing that airborne aerosols are a significant source of transmission. (Gee, whooda thunk? I though the Chinese bus study was pretty telling!) But when I tried to click on the article, several times, all I got was an error.
CDC abruptly removes guidance about airborne coronavirus transmission, says update 'was posted in error'
I guess they couldn't pull the headline fast enough.
The follow-on explanation in ZH was that the WHO put pressure on the CDC to retract the "airborne" designation because ... I dunno. Whatever I read didn't stick because it didn't make sense.
So they are sticking with the 6ft distance, handwashing, and substandard masking which works for large droplets but not aerosols.
It's all a matter of size. The smaller the droplet, the farther it will travel, the longer it will stay suspended in air, and the harder it is to filter out. When someone says "airborne" I mistakenly think of a free-floating naked virus particle, which would be incredibly hard to trap and would probably fall into the category of "ultrafine" particle. But in reality the droplets are probably larger, and more amenable to filtration. As water evaporates the droplets get smaller and smaller, but it look like as the droplets dry out so does the virus, which seems to inactivate it.
Outdoor contagion looks to be rare. So possibly things like bike rallies (Sturgis) and protests (many places) don't result in a massive outbreak.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
What I heard on KNX1070 is that when professionals think of 'airborne', measles is the outstanding example ... if someone comes into the ER with measles and goes into a treatment room, nobody is even allowed IN that room for 2 hours afterward to let the measles virus flush out. With measles, it's the same with the alerts on the radio from time to time, when they'll announce that a person with measles went through a /terminal/date/time-range/ and people who were there who never had measles/weren't vaccinated need to see their doctor.
Measles seems to be on the high end of airborne transmissibility, maybe even at the top; whereas COVID-19 is at the lower end.
So perhaps the questions is how transmissible does it need to be to be a major, instead of somewhat lesser, concern?
BTW I think of CNN as 'raw meat splatter'. *
* I just wanted to be a bit more explicit about what I think of CNN. It's like a window into the unconscious of the great hive-mind of the Deep State. It reacts before it's had a chance to decide if that's the way it *should* be seen to be reacting; before it gets all its alibis and narratives straight. I hope it never cleans up its act.
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Quote:I understand there is a 2nd refugee Doctor of Wuhan who is corroborating the information.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Apparently that doc was interviewed on Tucker Carlson a day or so after the story broke, several days sago by now.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:THANKS for the link, JSF! I saw that in the news and bookmarked it on my 'puter, but - as I don't for probably 95% of my bookmarks - I didn't post it here.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Proof that Covid was created in Wuhan Lab?
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chinese-virologist-claims-she-proof-02570016
4.html
ETA: Despite claims that a laboratory origin has been debunked by this paper https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 , the takedown of many such papers due to poor data, faulty analysis, and unjustified conclusions, by a genuine virologist who specializes in viral evolution has left the 'origins' questions open, imo.
He is also reporting that Covid is one of 2 Viruses STORED at the Wuhan facility.
Also, he mentioned the Coronavirus was released in response to some Sanction against China from Trump.
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I'd appreciate a name to track this down in all its finer details.
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Quote:I'll try to find it. I don't recall hearing the actual name, or remembering what it sounded like.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I'd appreciate a name to track this down in all its finer details.
In April, Luc Montagnier - France.
3 August, Dr. Li-Meng Yan - Wuhan China
Wow, they seem to really have that buried well. Haven't found the right combo of terms yet.
He escaped from Peoples Liberation Army, where he worked.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have been wondering what effect the travel rate of Americans has had on the caseload, the rate of infection.
I'll post some lists to ruminate on.
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/IS.AIR.PSGR/rankings
Rank Country Value Year
1 United States 889,022,000.00 2018
2 China 611,439,800.00 2018
3 Ireland 167,598,600.00 2018
4 United Kingdom 165,388,600.00 2018
5 India 164,035,600.00 2018
6 Japan 126,387,500.00 2018
7 Turkey 115,595,500.00 2018
8 Indonesia 115,154,100.00 2018
9 Germany 109,796,200.00 2018
10 Brazil 102,110,000.00 2018
11 Russia 99,327,310.00 2018
12 United Arab Emirates 95,533,070.00 2018
13 Canada 89,380,000.00 2018
14 Korea 88,157,580.00 2018
15 Spain 80,672,100.00 2018
16 Thailand 76,053,040.00 2018
17 Australia 75,667,650.00 2018
18 France 70,188,030.00 2018
19 Mexico 64,569,640.00 2018
20 Malaysia 60,481,770.00 2018
21 Hong Kong SAR, China 47,101,820.00 2018
22 Vietnam 47,049,670.00 2018
23 Netherlands 43,996,040.00 2018
24 Philippines 43,080,120.00 2018
25 Singapore 40,401,520.00 2018
26 Saudi Arabia 39,141,660.00 2018
27 Colombia 33,704,040.00 2018
28 Hungary 31,226,850.00 2018
29 Qatar 29,178,920.00 2018
30 Switzerland 28,857,990.00 2018
31 Italy 27,630,440.00 2018
32 Iran 25,604,870.00 2018
33 South Africa 23,921,750.00 2018
34 Chile 19,517,180.00 2018
35 Argentina 18,081,940.00 2018
36 Peru 17,758,530.00 2018
37 Portugal 17,367,960.00 2018
38 New Zealand 17,249,050.00 2018
39 Greece 15,125,930.00 2018
40 Belgium 13,639,490.00 2018
Wow, I did not realize how fitting this info was. USA is 5 times the air travel rate as the 3rd ranked. China and USA are alone in the stratosphere above the next plateau of 3.
USA also has large domestic air travel, while Wuhan air travel was locked down to anywhere within China, but Wuhan to the rest of the world was continued and encouraged.
This really seems to far more relevant to the case rate and spread in US, compared to all of these other pretexts.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I'd appreciate a name to track this down in all its finer details.
Quote:THANKS for the efforts!
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll try to find it. I don't recall hearing the actual name, or remembering what it sounded like.
In April, Luc Montagnier - France.
3 August, Dr. Li-Meng Yan - Wuhan China
Wow, they seem to really have that buried well. Haven't found the right combo of terms yet.
He escaped from Peoples Liberation Army, where he worked.
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Quote:I presume that just about everybody here except you can see that your data set does not match the actual graph or data from Portland cases.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
What you are missing is reproductive log function that living things have. It starts out very slowly, when the initial numbers are low, so it never looks like much at the start. It's very deceiving that way. But then it takes off ...
2^2 = 4
4^2 = 16
16^2 = 256
256^2 = 65,536
65,536^2 = 4,294,967,296
4,294,967,296^2 = 14,844,674,407,000,000,000
... in only 6 steps ... and so on.
Once the virus is in a population, unless active measures are taken to suppress it, the numbers would zoom up anyway. And when you're looking for the start of exponential growth you have to look where the numbers are low, not where they've already gotten high. So, imo, it would be very difficult to say the increase - which btw started earlier than you think - is due to some random but relatively small number of imports, or the natural mathematics of biological increase.
On the other hand, I presume most of the same folk can see that the description I provided does fit the Real World data accurately.
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From ZH, fwiw
Quote:
Breakthrough Research On Severe COVID-19 Infections Opens Door To New Treatment
So far, scientists have figured out that being male, elderly, and having underlying medical conditions can all raise risk factors for patients. But even patients who check all these boxes don't always experience serious symptoms. Scientists suspect that several factors influence severity, including pre-existing levels of inflammation, natural immunity levels, and the amount and strain of virus that starts the infection - along with variations in patients' genetic makeup.
As has been previously reported, many patients suffer the worst of the symptoms for COVID-19 due to an immune system overreaction called a "cytokine storm". As Dr. Fauci once explained, while "too little immunity is no good"..."too much immunity is really, really bad".
Now, researchers have discovered the role of a critical protein which could open the door to a new potential COVID-19 treatment.
Studies comparing reactions to COVID-19 in siblings have unearthed an interesting detail: the availability of a substance called interferon. Interferons are signaling proteins that help orchestrate the body’s defense against viral pathogens; they're used to treat diseases like Hepatitis C.
A growing body of evidence, including twin landmark studies published Thursday in the journal "Science" showed that "insufficient" interferon levels may be a dangerous precursor to a serious infection. As one researcher explained, the data suggest the virus uses this "one big trick" to slip past the body's initial defense systems.
"It looks like this virus has one big trick," said Shane Crotty, a professor in the Center for Infectious Disease and Vaccine Research at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California. "That big trick is to avoid the initial innate immune response for a significant period of time and, in particular, avoid an early type-1 interferon response."
The research highlights the potential for interferon-based therapies to expand a range of non-vaccine-related treatments, like Gilead's remdesivir and convalescent plasma.
Research shows the timing of medical intervention is also critical.
"We think timing may be essential because it’s only in the very early phase one can really battle the virus particles and defend against infection," said Alexander Hoischen, head of the genomic technologies and immuno-genomics group at Radboud University Medical Center in Nijmegen that analyzed the DNA of the two sets of brothers.
Then again, some people are believed to have trouble fighting infections because they make antibodies that deactivate their own interferon. On Thursday, a global consortium of researchers said such immune reactions to the protein could account for life-threatening pneumonia in at least 2.6% of women and 12.5% of men that causes inflammation in the patient's lungs.
Findings from the research offer the first explanation for the significantly higher mortality rate seen in male and elderly COVID-19 patients.
Interferon-blocking antibodies appeared in 101 of 987 patients with severe disease, but none of the 663 people with an asymptomatic or mild case, according to the research being published in "Science". Patients over 65 were also more likely than younger ones to have the autoimmune abnormality, which was "clinically silent until the patients were infected with SARS-CoV-2," said a group of more than 100 scientists said.
Researchers estimated that Inteferon issues might underlie as many as 14% of fatalities and the most severe cases.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/breakthrough-research-severe-co
vid-19-infections-opens-door-new-treatment
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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I heard Fake News report over the weekend that all Midwest States are increasing their cases, and their positivity rates. If they are like WI, then the majority of new cases are coming from college kids, age 18-24. Which means, outside of kiki's magical world, deaths will not rise after any lag time from these cases.
3rd graph on this page:
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm
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Get ready for 4 more years of the virus.
The only way the Legacy Media stops talking about it is if Biden wins, which isn't going to happen.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I heard Fake News report over the weekend that all Midwest States are increasing their cases, and their positivity rates. If they are like WI, then the majority of new cases are coming from college kids, age 18-24. Which means, outside of kiki's magical world, deaths will not rise after any lag time from these cases.
3rd graph on this page:
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm
FYI - I don't need your statements and tidbits to see which way things are going. Cases had a first peak at day 37, deaths had a first peak at day 50; cases had a second peak at day 142, deaths at day 154. Cases are going up again but haven't reached a peak.
Sp I'll just wait and see.
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
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Quote:I'm not sure. Maybe it all ends on November 5th, no matter which way the vote goes.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Get ready for 4 more years of the virus.
The only way the Legacy Media stops talking about it is if Biden wins, which isn't going to happen.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Anyhow, those who want 4 more years of Virus are going to vote for Dem Governor, so they all deserve the Government they Elect. Same for Sheriff, Mayor, Congressperson, etc.
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THIS IS A HUGELY LONG READ.
Quote:
There’s something strange about this coronavirus pandemic. Even after months of extensive research by the global scientific community, many questions remain open.
Why, for instance, was there such an enormous death toll in northern Italy, but not the rest of the country? Just three contiguous regions in northern Italy have 25,000 of the country’s nearly 36,000 total deaths; just one region, Lombardy, has about 17,000 deaths. Almost all of these were concentrated in the first few months of the outbreak. What happened in Guayaquil, Ecuador, in April, when so many died so quickly that bodies were abandoned in the sidewalks and streets?* Why, in the spring of 2020, did so few cities account for a substantial portion of global deaths, while many others with similar density, weather, age distribution, and travel patterns were spared? What can we really learn from Sweden, hailed as a great success by some because of its low case counts and deaths as the rest of Europe experiences a second wave, and as a big failure by others because it did not lock down and suffered excessive death rates earlier in the pandemic? Why did widespread predictions of catastrophe in Japan not bear out? The baffling examples go on.
I’ve heard many explanations for these widely differing trajectories over the past nine months—weather, elderly populations, vitamin D, prior immunity, herd immunity—but none of them explains the timing or the scale of these drastic variations. But there is a potential, overlooked way of understanding this pandemic that would help answer these questions, reshuffle many of the current heated arguments, and, crucially, help us get the spread of COVID-19 under control.
By now many people have heard about R0—the basic reproductive number of a pathogen, a measure of its contagiousness on average. But unless you’ve been reading scientific journals, you’re less likely to have encountered k, the measure of its dispersion. The definition of k is a mouthful, but it’s simply a way of asking whether a virus spreads in a steady manner or in big bursts, whereby one person infects many, all at once. After nine months of collecting epidemiological data, we know that this is an overdispersed pathogen, meaning that it tends to spread in clusters, but this knowledge has not yet fully entered our way of thinking about the pandemic—or our preventive practices.
Read: Herd immunity is not a strategy
The now-famed R0 (pronounced as “r-naught”) is an average measure of a pathogen’s contagiousness, or the mean number of susceptible people expected to become infected after being exposed to a person with the disease. If one ill person infects three others on average, the R0 is three. This parameter has been widely touted as a key factor in understanding how the pandemic operates. News media have produced multiple explainers and visualizations for it. Movies praised for their scientific accuracy on pandemics are lauded for having characters explain the “all-important” R0. Dashboards track its real-time evolution, often referred to as R or Rt, in response to our interventions. (If people are masking and isolating or immunity is rising, a disease can’t spread the same way anymore, hence the difference between R0 and R.)
Unfortunately, averages aren’t always useful for understanding the distribution of a phenomenon, especially if it has widely varying behavior. If Amazon’s CEO, Jeff Bezos, walks into a bar with 100 regular people in it, the average wealth in that bar suddenly exceeds $1 billion. If I also walk into that bar, not much will change. Clearly, the average is not that useful a number to understand the distribution of wealth in that bar, or how to change it. Sometimes, the mean is not the message. Meanwhile, if the bar has a person infected with COVID-19, and if it is also poorly ventilated and loud, causing people to speak loudly at close range, almost everyone in the room could potentially be infected—a pattern that’s been observed many times since the pandemic begin, and that is similaNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Headlines are looking like this
Quote:
Spanish Government Seals Off Madrid As COVID-19 Crisis Worsens; Merkel Says "Tougher Measures" Coming: Live Updates
ummary:
Italy tops 5,000 new cases
Spanish gov't locks down Madrid
Merkel says she will impose tougher measures if no improvement seen in ten days
London mayor says lockdown "inevitable"
Netherland reports latest record jump
Spain declares "public health emergency" in Madrid
France places more cities on lockdown
Confirmed COVID-19 cases neared daily record yesterday
Russia reports new record
Takeda enrolls first patients for new drug trial
China joins WHO vaccine initiative
Iran bars hospitals from taking non-urgent cases as COVID hammers country
* * *
Update (1100ET): Italy just recorded 5,372 new cases on Friday, topping 5,000 new cases for the first time since March 29, according to JHU data. Yesterday, Italy reported 4,458 new cases, which was, at the time, the largest daily tally since April 11.
see chart here: (insert https:) //zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ITALYMAP.jpg?itok=pWEIDMO4
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/frances-expands-localized-lockdowns-
global-covid-19-cases-see-near-record-jump-live-updates
Australia's prolonged lockdown is just ... brutal. And nonsensical, since they've included a curfew (why? Is the virus more contagious at night?)
In Melbourne, the restrictions are
Quote:
– No traveling more than 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) from their homes;
– No traveling to other states inside of the country;
– Those under house arrest [everyone] are permitted to leave home for just one hour each day for exercise;
– Only one person is permitted to go shopping per family each day; shopping is to be done within 5 kilometers from home;
– Unlike traditional prisons, visitations are not permitted to house arrestees;
– All school activities are to be conducted online;
– All businesses, services and construction cancelled;
– Organized sport, forget it;
– In the case of funerals, try and delay your demise if at all possible, otherwise, expect just 10 guests;
– Ditto for weddings;
– Curfew in effect between 8 pm and 5 am.
Meanwhile, as to be expected, the authorities have been enthusiastic about meting out their street justice on people who allegedly violate the regime’s rules. And not just on the street. The police have been authorized to enter private residences without a warrant.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/12/letters-from-melbour
ne-ghost-town-police-state-under-brutal-covid-lockdown/
SOME jurisdictions have used Covid-19 as an excuse to ban the sale of guns(??) and alcohol.
There are two things missing from the latest uptick:
Deaths, and masks.
When people start runnig around with their hair on fire about "cases", the first thing I do is check divoc-91 for attendant "deaths". And so far, I'm not seeing the same meteoritic rise.
Quote:
In the last several weeks, Melbourne has introduced shockingly draconian anti-Covid measures, imposed on the metropolis of some 5 million souls. What tragedy was responsible for spurring officials to leap into action? To blame was a fractional uptick in the number of coronavirus deaths – seven to be exact, and all involving citizens above the age of 70 years old.
The media jumped on the “new single-day record in Victoria,” which brought the state death toll to 56. I repeat, 56, and the overwhelming majority of those cases involved elderly people in nursing facilities, some of which are under investigation for their handling of patients. While it goes without saying that elderly lives matter, do seven elderly deaths really warrant the shutdown of one of Australia’s busiest cities?
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/12/letters-from-melbour
ne-ghost-town-police-state-under-bruta
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10,000 mink are dead in Covid-19 outbreaks at US fur farms after virus believed spread by humans
Mink, which are closely related to weasels, otter and ferrets, appear to suffer similar symptoms to humans. Difficulty breathing and crusting around the eyes are usually seen, but the virus progresses rapidly, and most infected mink are dead by the next day, according to Taylor.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/09/us/mink-covid-outbreak-trnd/index.h
tml
the pawer wee things
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There’s something strange about this coronavirus pandemic. Even after months of extensive research by the global scientific community, many questions remain open.
Thanks for posting this, Signy. I did run across this but didn't post because ... lazy, I guess. But I should have known at least you would be interested, and posted it if only for you.
I just have some comments. As you know, I've been puzzling over the spread of SARS-CoV-2 for quite some time. And I'd already concluded that 1) The point of introduction into a population is determined by sheer dumb luck; 2) How it spreads within that population is determined by population characteristics; and 3) Random visitations of superspreader events are like gasoline on smouldering kindling (and I imagined there might even be super-superspreader situations, where superspread is so rampant it triggers multiple other superspreader events in a nuclear-fusion-chain-reaction style).
But I disagree that superspreader events are the primary mode of transmission. Because that doesn't explain what, if this were a Sherlock Holmes mystery story, I'd title "The Strange Case of Southern California".
As you know, there's some reason to believe SARS-CoV-2 was in SoCal as early as December 2019, based on a large swell of people with flu-and-cough doctor's visits (iirc 75% above recent, and above normal). And that makes sense to me, considering the volume of air traffic between SoCal and China. But SoCal didn't have a signal event, like Washington's and Sweden's sudden explosion of illness and death in nursing homes, or N Italy's sudden explosion of illness and death in its elderly at-home population. COVID-19 in SoCal went under the radar for months.
Due to cases in CentralCal, the state imposed stay-at-home March 19, 2020 (almost 4 months after SARS-CoV-2 entered SoCal); LACounty and the State of California issued mask recommendations April 03, 2020; The City of Los Angeles made masks outside the home a requirement on April 07, 2020; and the State of California made masks a requirement June 19, 2020.
Though really, really late compared to community spread, one would think stay-at-home would have eliminated superspreader events, since there were no more large gatherings of people (except at meat processing plants of which there are an abundance here in SoCal, and which became the epicenters of outbreaks in their communities). And one would think masks would have damped overall transmission in the community. Well ... something did go right, since SoCal is 30th on the list of states for per-capita cases and 27th on the list for per capita deaths, DESPITE months of unrecognized and unaddressed community spread. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
But it hasn't stamped out the virus, as the superspreader theory would predict. Because that theory says that if the virus isn't sparking superspreader events, it's dying out. And how long does it take for the virus to go through one infection cycle? 2 weeks? If you stopped all superspreading at once, it seems like it should take 2 weeks for SARS-CoV-2 to disappear.
It looks like sometimes the virus enters a population and fizzles out. And sometimes it enters a populations and explodes. Sometimes when it's widespread in the community it acts like the flu and causes a groundswell of overall infection. And sometimes it enters a population and embeds itself.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Headlines are looking like thisQuote:
Spanish Government Seals Off Madrid As COVID-19 Crisis Worsens; Merkel Says "Tougher Measures" Coming: Live Updates
ummary:
Italy tops 5,000 new cases
Spanish gov't locks down Madrid
Merkel says she will impose tougher measures if no improvement seen in ten days
London mayor says lockdown "inevitable"
Netherland reports latest record jump
Spain declares "public health emergency" in Madrid
France places more cities on lockdown
Confirmed COVID-19 cases neared daily record yesterday
Russia reports new record
Takeda enrolls first patients for new drug trial
China joins WHO vaccine initiative
Iran bars hospitals from taking non-urgent cases as COVID hammers country
* * *
Update (1100ET): Italy just recorded 5,372 new cases on Friday, topping 5,000 new cases for the first time since March 29, according to JHU data. Yesterday, Italy reported 4,458 new cases, which was, at the time, the largest daily tally since April 11.
see chart here: (insert https:) //zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ITALYMAP.jpg?itok=pWEIDMO4
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/frances-expands-localized-lockdowns-
global-covid-19-cases-see-near-record-jump-live-updates
Australia's prolonged lockdown is just ... brutal. And nonsensical, since they've included a curfew (why? Is the virus more contagious at night?)
In Melbourne, the restrictions areQuote:
– No traveling more than 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) from their homes;
– No traveling to other states inside of the country;
– Those under house arrest [everyone] are permitted to leave home for just one hour each day for exercise;
– Only one person is permitted to go shopping per family each day; shopping is to be done within 5 kilometers from home;
– Unlike traditional prisons, visitations are not permitted to house arrestees;
– All school activities are to be conducted online;
– All businesses, services and construction cancelled;
– Organized sport, forget it;
– In the case of funerals, try and delay your demise if at all possible, otherwise, expect just 10 guests;
– Ditto for weddings;
– Curfew in effect between 8 pm and 5 am.
Meanwhile, as to be expected, the authorities have been enthusiastic about meting out their street justice on people who allegedly violate the regime’s rules. And not just on the street. The police have been authorized to enter private residences without a warrant.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/12/letters-from-melbour
ne-ghost-town-police-state-under-brutal-covid-lockdown/
SOME jurisdictions have used Covid-19 as an excuse to ban the sale of guns(??) and alcohol.
There are two things missing from the latest uptick:
Deaths, and masks.
When people start runnig around with their hair on fire about "cases", the first thing I do is check divoc-91 for attendant "deaths". And so far, I'm not seeing the same meteoritic rise.Quote:
In the last several weeks, Melbourne has introduced shockingly draconian anti-Covid measures, imposed on the metropolis of some 5 million souls. What tragedy was responsible for spurring officials to leap into action? To blame was a fractional uptick in the number of coronavirus deaths – seven to be exact, and all involving citizens above the age of 70 years old.
The media jumped on the “new single-day record in Victoria,” which brought the state death toll to 56. I repeat, 56, and the overwhelming majority of those cases involved elderly people in nursing facilities, some of which are under investigation for their handling of patients. While it goes without saying that elderly lives matter, do seven elderly deaths really warrant the shutdown of one of Australia’s busiest cities?
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/12/letters-from-melbour
nNOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
10,000 mink are dead in Covid-19 outbreaks at US fur farms after virus believed spread by humans
Mink, which are closely related to weasels, otter and ferrets, appear to suffer similar symptoms to humans. Difficulty breathing and crusting around the eyes are usually seen, but the virus progresses rapidly, and most infected mink are dead by the next day, according to Taylor.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/09/us/mink-covid-outbreak-trnd/index.h
tml
the pawer wee things
My question is can you give it to moles and raccoons?
I might find a use for this yet.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Your linky crashes my browser.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:
https://www.portland.gov/omf/covid-19-situation-status-reports-emergen
cy-coordination-center
https://www.portland.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/2020.08.27_portla
nd-situation-report_final.pdf
Thanks! for the links.
First of all - those graphs are CUMULATIVE graphs of cases and deaths. OF COURSE they'll continue to go up !! since not too many people will revert to 'never infected' or 'undead'.
If you look at the cases by date that I linked https://multco.us/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/regional-covid-19-data-da
shboard , you'll see that the 'cases' started their rise between the week of May 25, 2020* and May 31, 2020 - far too early to be accounted for by any protests/(riots). There needs to be at least a 2 week lag - for people to become symptomatic and go to the doctor.
And cases then peak the week of July 5, 2020 after which they drop off steeply, far too early compared to the ongoing protests/(riots) which should have sustained the outbreak if they were, indeed, the cause.
Second of all, you need to be careful about increases of 'cases' since - as Fearless Leader has noted - the more tests you do, the more 'cases' you'll find. In this instance, you'll see a disconnect between 'cases' and 'deaths' (after accounting for a 2-3 week lag to give confirmed 'cases' time to become 'deaths'). That indicates more testing, uncovering more 'cases'.
'Deaths' is a better measure (after a 4-6 week lag to confirm 'cases' and for those confirmed 'cases' to become 'deaths'.)
*Third, George Floyd died May 25, 2020. As I noted (above) 'cases' and 'deaths' were occurring far too early to be caused by the protests/(riots).
Yes, I understand how graphs work. Plus derivatives. But I have not seen evidence that you do.
I tried to extract actual data from that Portland.gov site which I linked. Jeez, I thought the Libtards in Madison were horrible at providing WI data. But these Portland Tards are even worse.
There seem to be 2 sequences of data, which don't mesh. I will list both which I could determine. This is all for Multnomah County.
First, I will call this "posted counts"
Ap 2 0122
My 7 0793 thru 7th
My14 0940 +147 thru 13th (6 days)
My21 1018 +078 thru 20th
My28 1093 +075 thru 27th
Jn 4 1228 +135 thru 3rd
Jn11 1407 +179 thru 11th (8 days)
Jn18 1665 +258
Jn25 1970 +305 thru 24/25th
Jl 2 2304 +334 thru 2nd
Jl 9 2697 +393 thru 9th
Jl16 3199 +502 thru 14th (5 days)
Jl23 3748 +549 thru 23rd (9 days)
Jl30 4131 +383 thru 28th (5 days)
Au 6 4574 +443 thru 4th
Au13 5046 +472 thru 11th
Au20 5500 +454
Au27 5822 +322
Se 3 6141 +319
Se10 6442 +301
Se17 6724 +282
Se24 7031 +307
Oc 1 7392 +361
Oc 8 7773 +381
I will call this "calculated counts from posted data"
Ap 2 0122
My 7 0793 thru 7th
My14 0940 +147
My21 1018 +078
My28 1093 +075
Jn 4 1228 +135
Jn11 1407 +179
Jn18 1665 +258
Jn25 1970 +305 thru 24/25th
Jl 2 2304 +334 thru 2nd
Jl 9 2697 +393 thru 9th
Jl16 3005 +308 thru 14th
Jl23 3622 +617 thru 21st
Jl30 4131 +509 thru 28th
Au 6 4574 +443 thru 4th
Au13 5046 +472 thru 11th
Au20 5459 +413
Au27 5822 +363
Se 3 6141 +319
Se10 6442 +301
Se17 6724 +282
Se24 7031 +307
Oc 1 7392 +361
Oc 8 7773 +381
As you can see, with either set of data, prior to June, no week had new cases exceed 150, even with hinky reporting back then.
And then, from 19 June until 9 September, the weekly new case total never falls below 300.
For folk who are not Libtards, this is not a difficult concept to comprehend. Perhaps you can try to explain to one of your non-Libtard friends how new case rates below 150 per week had DROPPED all the way down "steeply" to 300-600 per week, and this means there was no increase during this superspreader event.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Headlines are looking like thisQuote:
Spanish Government Seals Off Madrid As COVID-19 Crisis Worsens; Merkel Says "Tougher Measures" Coming: Live Updates
ummary:
Italy tops 5,000 new cases
Spanish gov't locks down Madrid
Merkel says she will impose tougher measures if no improvement seen in ten days
London mayor says lockdown "inevitable"
Netherland reports latest record jump
Spain declares "public health emergency" in Madrid
France places more cities on lockdown
Confirmed COVID-19 cases neared daily record yesterday
Russia reports new record
Takeda enrolls first patients for new drug trial
China joins WHO vaccine initiative
Iran bars hospitals from taking non-urgent cases as COVID hammers country
* * *
Update (1100ET): Italy just recorded 5,372 new cases on Friday, topping 5,000 new cases for the first time since March 29, according to JHU data. Yesterday, Italy reported 4,458 new cases, which was, at the time, the largest daily tally since April 11.
see chart here: (insert https:) //zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ITALYMAP.jpg?itok=pWEIDMO4
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/frances-expands-localized-lockdowns-
global-covid-19-cases-see-near-record-jump-live-updates
Australia's prolonged lockdown is just ... brutal. And nonsensical, since they've included a curfew (why? Is the virus more contagious at night?)
In Melbourne, the restrictions areQuote:
– No traveling more than 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) from their homes;
– No traveling to other states inside of the country;
– Those under house arrest [everyone] are permitted to leave home for just one hour each day for exercise;
– Only one person is permitted to go shopping per family each day; shopping is to be done within 5 kilometers from home;
– Unlike traditional prisons, visitations are not permitted to house arrestees;
– All school activities are to be conducted online;
– All businesses, services and construction cancelled;
– Organized sport, forget it;
– In the case of funerals, try and delay your demise if at all possible, otherwise, expect just 10 guests;
– Ditto for weddings;
– Curfew in effect between 8 pm and 5 am.
Meanwhile, as to be expected, the authorities have been enthusiastic about meting out their street justice on people who allegedly violate the regime’s rules. And not just on the street. The police have been authorized to enter private residences without a warrant.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/12/letters-from-melbour
ne-ghost-town-police-state-under-brutal-covid-lockdown/
SOME jurisdictions have used Covid-19 as an excuse to ban the sale of guns(??) and alcohol.
There are two things missing from the latest uptick:
Deaths, and masks.
When people start runnig around with their hair on fire about "cases", the first thing I do is check divoc-91 for attendant "deaths". And so far, I'm not seeing the same meteoritic rise.Quote:
In the last several weeks, Melbourne has introduced shockingly draconian anti-Covid measures, imposed on the metropolis of some 5 million souls. What tragedy was responsible for spurring officials to leap into action? To blame was a fractional uptick in the number of coronavirus deaths – seven to be exact, and all involving citizens above the age of 70 years old.
The media jumped on the “new single-day record in Victoria,” which brought the state death toll to 56. I repeat, 56, and the overwhelming majority of those cases involved elderly people in nursing facilities, some of which are under investigation for their handling of patients. While it goes without saying that elderly lives matter, do seven elderly deaths really warrant the shutdown of one of Australia’s busiest cities?
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/12/letters-from-melboNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://multco.us/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/regional-covid-19-data-da
shboard
Quote:If you could see the graph that charts 4 counties, including Multnonah where Portland is located, you'd see what I was posting about. But even if you can't see it, probably most others can see it and understand.
etc
week ... newcases
200426 .. 96
200503 .. 83
200510 .. 103
200517 .. 96
200524 .. 107
200531 .. 197 BEGIN PEAK
200607 .. 287
200614 .. 356
200621 .. 316
200628 .. 418
200705 .. 596 PEAK
200712 .. 526
200719 .. 462
200726 .. 428
200802 .. 410
200809 .. 348
200816 .. 353
200823 .. 243 TROUGH
200830 .. 279
200906 .. 288
200913 .. 320
200920 .. 328
200927 .. 366 RISING
If you were able to see the graph you'd notice that the Multnonah peak happened in July, then numbers fell through August DESPITE the fact that Portland protests(riots) were increasing during that time. "By July 2020, many of the protests, which have been held virtually every day since May 28, have drawn more than 1,000 participants." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests_in_Portland,_Orego
n
The other thing you'd notice is that Multnonah County closely tracks the other 3 counties Clackamas, Washington, and Yamhill, in terms of the timing and numbers of cases.
You'd notice that Multnonah County closely tracks cases in Oregon as a whole, which you can find at this link. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
And finally you'd notice that in terms of the timing of the peaks, Oregon tracks the US as a whole. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
Multnonah County where Portland is located doesn't show that 'cases' tracks protests(riots) since cases increased then decreased as riots steadily increased.
Multnonah County where Portland is located tracks 3 nearby counties, the entire state of Oregon, and the US, all of which also fail to track protests(riots).
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Quote:
WHO Flip-Flops: Urges World Leaders To Stop Using Lockdowns To Fight COVID Contagion
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/who-flip-flops-urges-world-leaders-s
top-using-lockdowns-fight-covid-contagion
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Headlines are looking like thisQuote:
Spanish Government Seals Off Madrid As COVID-19 Crisis Worsens; Merkel Says "Tougher Measures" Coming: Live Updates
ummary:
Italy tops 5,000 new cases
Spanish gov't locks down Madrid
Merkel says she will impose tougher measures if no improvement seen in ten days
London mayor says lockdown "inevitable"
Netherland reports latest record jump
Spain declares "public health emergency" in Madrid
France places more cities on lockdown
Confirmed COVID-19 cases neared daily record yesterday
Russia reports new record
Takeda enrolls first patients for new drug trial
China joins WHO vaccine initiative
Iran bars hospitals from taking non-urgent cases as COVID hammers country
* * *
Update (1100ET): Italy just recorded 5,372 new cases on Friday, topping 5,000 new cases for the first time since March 29, according to JHU data. Yesterday, Italy reported 4,458 new cases, which was, at the time, the largest daily tally since April 11.
see chart here: (insert https:) //zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ITALYMAP.jpg?itok=pWEIDMO4
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/frances-expands-localized-lockdowns-
global-covid-19-cases-see-near-record-jump-live-updates
Australia's prolonged lockdown is just ... brutal. And nonsensical, since they've included a curfew (why? Is the virus more contagious at night?)
In Melbourne, the restrictions areQuote:
– No traveling more than 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) from their homes;
– No traveling to other states inside of the country;
– Those under house arrest [everyone] are permitted to leave home for just one hour each day for exercise;
– Only one person is permitted to go shopping per family each day; shopping is to be done within 5 kilometers from home;
– Unlike traditional prisons, visitations are not permitted to house arrestees;
– All school activities are to be conducted online;
– All businesses, services and construction cancelled;
– Organized sport, forget it;
– In the case of funerals, try and delay your demise if at all possible, otherwise, expect just 10 guests;
– Ditto for weddings;
– Curfew in effect between 8 pm and 5 am.
Meanwhile, as to be expected, the authorities have been enthusiastic about meting out their street justice on people who allegedly violate the regime’s rules. And not just on the street. The police have been authorized to enter private residences without a warrant.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/12/letters-from-melbour
ne-ghost-town-police-state-under-brutal-covid-lockdown/
SOME jurisdictions have used Covid-19 as an excuse to ban the sale of guns(??) and alcohol.
There are two things missing from the latest uptick:
Deaths, and masks.
When people start runnig around with their hair on fire about "cases", the first thing I do is check divoc-91 for attendant "deaths". And so far, I'm not seeing the same meteoritic rise.Quote:
In the last several weeks, Melbourne has introduced shockingly draconian anti-Covid measures, imposed on the metropolis of some 5 million souls. What tragedy was responsible for spurring officials to leap into action? To blame was a fractional uptick in the number of coronavirus deaths – seven to be exact, and all involving citizens above the age of 70 years old.
The media jumped on the “new single-day record in Victoria,” which brought the state death toll to 56. I repeat, 56, and the overwhelming majority of those cases involved elderly people in nursing facilities, some of which are under investigation for their handling of patients. While it goes without saying that elderly lives matter, do seven elderly deaths really warrant the shutdown of one of Australia’s busiest cities?
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Quote:
The "Great Barrington Declaration"
https://gbdeclaration.org/
The Great Barrington Declaration – As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
On what planet do these people live, I wonder. They seem to think that the vulnerable - who may be a very large portion of the population at-risk due to obesity, diabetes, hypertension etc as well as age - can be cleanly separated from the low risk so that they can be protected.
What a bunch of hooey.
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No wonder it the "Great Barrington Declaration" reads like such a crock. It is one, just like the climate change denier's supposed signatory list.
Does anyone think I should sign the "Declaration" using my real name Minnie Mouse?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/the-rebel-scientists-cause-would-
be-more-persuasive-if-it-weren-t-so-half-baked/ar-BB19Ur8Q
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Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I just wanted to comment on the California "mystery": The reason why it keeps spreading is bc nobody takes masking and social isolation seriously.
My fair city has one of the highest rates of infection. According to one pissed-off resident, Instagram is full of people still partying indoors belly-to-belly at our local bars with nary a mask in sight. Even on our street, the neighbors' young adult son held a large nighttime party - again, no mask in sight. (I know bc when I took puppy wuppy out for her b4 bed potty break the street was full of cars and some of the party-goers were leaving ... maskless... and I had to avoid them.)
It's kind of like the AIDS epidemic: Even as it was roaring along, gays were still going to bath houses for anonmymous sex.
Sigh.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/locations.htm
Yeah, your city has about twice the rate as my city. But both are still under 100.
I terms of scofflaws, I only know what I see in the small downtown area and what I read on nextdoor. Earlier on I saw a fair number of maskless people but the vast, vast majority of them were young male sidewalk surfers. Those rebellious independent young souls afraid of nothing were apparently terrified of what their peers would say if they should wear a mask. But over time I'm seeing far fewer of them without masks, I'd say 95-99% of everyone wears masks in public now. Now, whether or not they wear them correctly is another matter. As for nextdoor, there are a few - nearly totally male - cranks who vocally refuse/ object. But they're really on the fringe, saying god will protect/ cure them; and their opinions on other matters are equally irrational.
I haven't really looked at the demographics in CA or across the US, mostly because while I'm sure someone is keeping track, I haven't been able to find the particular data I'm looking for, especially when it comes to time-slice data.
But looking at the overall LACounty demographics at the link above it looks like Hispanics are by far disproportionately the highest rates for both cases and deaths, so maybe the mystery of CA could be solved by solving the mystery of Hispanics.
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J&J paused their vaccine trials yesterday, and Eli Lilly paused theirs today, so that makes the second and third vaccine on hold, respectively.
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A new study has found that SARS-CoV-2 could theoretically infect a large number of mammals.
The research, which appears in the journal Scientific Reports, identifies important animal species that should be the focus of future real-world observations.
Central to scientific efforts to reduce the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic is the development of a vaccine. Suppose an effective vaccine can be developed and made widely available to a significant number of people worldwide. In that case, virus transmission rates should become low enough to allow countries to begin relaxing emergency measures put in place to reduce the spread of the virus.
However, while no doubt a crucial part of the puzzle, humans are not the only species affected by SARS-CoV-2.
As a type of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a non-human animal — thought possibly to be a horseshoe bat — via an intermediary non-human animal that is yet to be determined. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that non-human animals are also susceptible to the virus.
But what is currently unknown is which types of animals are susceptible, how susceptible they are, and how likely they are to transmit the virus. This is important because if the virus can infect other non-human animals, such as pets or livestock, then people who regularly come into contact with these animals may be able to transmit the virus to them, and vice versa.
There are already reports of infections in domestic cats, as well as lions and tigers. Meanwhile, laboratory studies of animal cells suggest that a broad range of animals could host the virus.
By better understanding which animals are susceptible to the virus, hygiene practices can be put in place to minimize the risks of transmission to humans, as well as damage to livestock and other animals.
Computer modeling
To identify which species could be susceptible to the virus — and therefore should be the focus of future research — the researchers behind the present study developed a computer modeling system.
SARS-CoV-2 infects a host cell by attaching to ACE2 proteins. It is very effective at this in humans. As well as ACE2 proteins, the transmembrane serine protease TMPRSS2 is central to the virus’s ability to infect a host cell.
However, the ACE2 and TMPRSS2 proteins vary between species, so the virus may be able to infect non-human animal cells. By using sophisticated computer models drawing on a variety of data, the researchers were able to identify species that theoretically may be more susceptible to the virus than others. According to the first author of the study, Su Datt Lam, a Ph.D student at University College London (UCL)’s Structural & Molecular Biology department and the National University of Malaysia:
“Unlike laboratory-based experiments, the computational analyses we devised can be run automatically and rapidly. Therefore, these methods could be applied easily to future virus outbreaks that, unfortunately, are becoming more common due to human encroachment into natural habitats.”
The researchers found that a “broad range” of vertebrate animals could, in principle, contract SARS-CoV-2. In total, the researchers found evidence that 26 animal species that regularly come into contact with people may be susceptible to infection with SARS-CoV-2. In particular, they found that the binding process between the virus and the host ACE2 protein in sheep and great apes is likely to be as strong as it is in humans.
Sheep are a particular concern, given their prevalence in agricultural settings in many parts of the world.
The study also found that most fish, birds, and reptiles are unlikely to be susceptible to the virus.
Yet the researchers stress their study does not demonstrate with certainty that these animals are susceptible to the virus. Rather, it suggests a significant likelihood that this is the case, which warrants more detailed research to confirm these findings.
Nonetheless, being able to quickly analyze the potential susceptibility o
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This 14-year-old girl won a $25K prize for a discovery that could lead to a cure for Covid-19
As scientists around the world race to find a treatment for the coronavirus, a young girl among them stands out. Anika Chebrolu, a 14-year-old from Frisco, Texas, has just won the 2020 3M Young Scientist Challenge -- and a $25,000 prize -- for a discovery that could provide a potential therapy to Covid-19. Anika's winning invention uses in-silico (using computers) methodology to discover a lead molecule that can selectively bind to the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
"The last two days, I saw that there is a lot of media hype about my project since it involves the SARS-CoV-2 virus and it reflects our collective hopes to end this pandemic as I, like everyone else, wish that we go back to our normal lives soon," Anika told CNN.
Anika, who is Indian American, submitted her project when she was in 8th grade -- but it wasn't always going to be focused on finding a cure for Covid-19. Initially, her goal was to use in-silico methods to identify a lead compound that could bind to a protein of the influenza virus.
"After spending so much time researching about pandemics, viruses and drug discovery, it was crazy to think that I was actually living through something like this," Anika said. "Because of the immense severity of the Covid-19 pandemic and the drastic impact it had made on the world in such a short time, I, with the help of my mentor, changed directions to target the SARS-CoV-2 virus."
Anika said she was inspired to find potential cures to viruses after learning about the 1918 flu pandemic and finding out how many people die every year in the United States despite annual vaccinations and anti-influenza drugs on the market.
"Anika has an inquisitive mind and used her curiosity to ask questions about a vaccine for Covid-19," Dr. Cindy Moss, a judge for the 3M Young Scientist Challenge, told CNN.
"Her work was comprehensive and examined numerous databases. She also developed an understanding of the innovation process and is a masterful communicator. Her willingness to use her time and talent to help make the world a better place gives us all hope."
Her next goal, she says, is to work alongside scientists and researchers who are fighting to "control the morbidity and mortality" of the pandemic by developing her findings into an actual cure for the virus.
"My effort to find a lead compound to bind to the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus this summer may appear to be a drop in the ocean, but still adds to all these efforts," she said. "How I develop this molecule further with the help of virologists and drug development specialists will determine the success of these efforts."
Of course, Anika also finds time to be normal 14-year-old. When she isn't in a lab or working toward her goal of becoming a doctor or researcher, Anika trains for the Indian classical dance called Bharatanatyam, which she has been practicing for eight years.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/18/us/anika-chebrolu-covid-treatment-a
ward-scn-trnd/index.html
Like the young female grade-schooler whose work led to the discovery and use of cancer markers (her insight was that faulty, cancerous DNA would produce faulty proteins) I'm sure this young girl will also disappear over time, and be swamped by the big names who'll capitalize on her brilliance.
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I need to track these figures down.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Like the young female grade-schooler whose work led to the discovery and use of cancer markers (her insight was that faulty, cancerous DNA would produce faulty proteins) I'm sure this young girl will also disappear over time, and be swamped by the big names who'll capitalize on her brilliance.
You sure are a "glass half empty... and it's dirty and what's in it will probably kill you" kind of person. I see her name being relatively well known with this award, so people / drug companies might even want to keep her amazing story alive by giving her a salary and letting them use the pr - win win. If this isn't a fluke then financial security is surely a given for the rest of her life. Plus, she has the knowledge that she's helped mankind - a bonus you can't put a price on. Cheer up, Kookie.
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Yeah, that young girl with that breakthrough insight decade ago ... even Nobel laureates were chagrined to admit they hadn't thought of that concept, that faulty DNA would make faulty proteins, and were quoted saying so. And it was so revolutionary it inspired a whole field of research. But you've never heard of her, and I can't remember her name. And no amount of googling will resurrect her.
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Quote:Hooray for Sucralose and High Fructose Corn Syrup.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
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It took a while, but 'new deaths' in the US are going up. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
'New cases' went up because young, invulnerable people decided they didn't want to give up their party-time lifestyle and caught COVID-19.
But because we don't have a society where vulnerable people live separately from everyone else, and so are able to be protected, young people gave came in contact with vulnerable people, and passed their COVID-19 on to them. And now the vulnerable people are dying.
It's inevitable in the US: news cases = new hospitalizations = new deaths.
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The CDC Just Changed The Definition Of ‘Close Contact’ To Someone With Covid-19
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday expanded the definition of “close contact” to someone with a confirmed case of Covid-19 from 15 consecutive minutes within six feet to 15 total minutes or more, within six feet, over a 24 hour period.
The revised definition is based on new evidence about transmission of the virus from a correctional facility in Vermont. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6943e1.htm
• • A 20-year-old prison employee contracted the coronavirus during the course of his eight-hour shift during which he had multiple, albeit brief, encounters with six asymptomatic incarcerated individuals on July 28.
• • The employee, who was wearing a cloth mask, a gown and eye protection during each interaction, spent a total of 17 minutes with the incarcerated individuals during his shift.
• • The six individuals had arrived from an out of state facility, were quarantined, and awaiting Covid-19 test results – on July 29, all six tested positive.
• • They wore face masks during some, but not all of their interactions with the employee.
• • The employee began showing symptoms August 4, and tested positive August 11 – he reported no other exposure to the coronavirus and had not traveled outside Vermont.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielcassady/2020/10/21/the-cdc-just-cha
nged-the-definition-of-close-contact-to-someone-with-covid-19/#bac1d0f2769e
Even multiple but brief exposures - like passing in the hallway - count.
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If Trump was at all up to the task of handling this pandemic, there would be ONE thing that he should have been able to do BY NOW: Make it possible for every vulnerable person to get an Rx for two N95 respirators once every two months or so.
Dear daugther and I have been using the same six since this started. That's three per person for almost nine months.
Vulnerable people KNOW that they're vulnerable. They're not out running errands five times a week, and with careful use and sanitizing a few N95s could go a long way to protecting the elderly and compromised.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Dear daugther and I have been using the same six since this started. That's three per person for almost nine months.
Uh-huh. I don't think you get how masks work, OR you're lying and just posting to get credits. I'm guessing the latter.
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Apparently YOU don't know about sanitizing for re-use!!
So, are your minders are keeping you well-supplied?
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I have wondered if the CA wildfires have contributed to spread.
The fires caused premature temp drop and cloud cover clocking the sun. Has ths temp drop and UV reduction iven rise to Covid spread?
Was the summer our opportunity to subdue, and squandered by superspreader events from Antifag and BLM?
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I realize you can't get to some linked data, but since most of these links are to maps, I'll have to describe them to you.
Overall, California's rate of COVID-19 spread seems to be most related to relaxing and then re-enforcing restaurant and bar restrictions. For example, on July 6, 2020 bars and in-house dining were re-restricted in selected counties, and by July 13 cases started to level off. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/ca
lifornia/67 By August 14, 2020 cases in CA were dropping steeply.
If fires 
contributed to the spread you'd expect to see the most cases where there were the worst fires - or immediately downwind https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/. That's not the case, as the two maps don't match up.
And if riots were major contributors you'd expect to see the worst spread in urban areas, and not also in very rural, agricultural, and desert areas like San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, Tulare, Modera, and Tehama counties.
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I've pointed out more than once that there's a lot about SARS-CoV-2 that's UNknown. But the meaning of the word UNknown seems to escape many, since people make predictions based on assumptions that may or may not be true.
One of them is herd immunity. Its merits are based on at least 2 assumptions: 1) infection confers lasting immunity, and 2) nearly all infections don't leave lasting damage (ie if you haven't died, or been in a hospital on a ventilator, you'll be OK).
One assumption about infection leading to immunity may be wrong.
Quote:As noted in the article, this was released as an unreviewed preprint, and no link was provided to the preprint server.
UK study finds evidence of waning antibody immunity to COVID-19 over time
Scientists at Imperial College London ... found that antibody prevalence fell by a quarter, from 6% of the population around the end of June to just 4.4% in September.
“On the balance of evidence I would say, with what we know for other coronaviruses, it would look as if immunity declines away at the same rate as antibodies decline away, and that this is an indication of waning immunity at the population level.”
The study backs up findings from similar surveys in Germany which found the vast majority of people didn’t have COVID-19 antibodies, even in hotspots for the disease, and that antibodies might fade in those who do.
World Health Organisation spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said that uncertainty over how long immunity would last and the fact most people had never had antibodies against the coronavirus in the first place showed the need to break transmission chains. Acquiring this collective immunity just by letting virus run through the population is not really an option,” he told a U.N. briefing in Geneva
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-antibody
-idUKKBN27C009
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https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/study-identifies-3-existing-
drugs-that-may-help-treat-covid-19#Three-drugs-identified
Study identifies 3 existing drugs that may help treat COVID-19
Instead, in their study, the scientists used a ligand-based virtual screening (LBVS) (like the 'in silico' method described in a post above -1kiki)
... to study approximately 4,000 drugs[,] then verifying their findings, the scientists identified three that may be effective against COVID-19 and, in their opinion, should be made the subject of clinical trials.
These are the antimalarial drug amodiaquine, the anti-psychotic zuclopenthixol, and the blood pressure medication nebivolol.
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Quote:I meant for the rest of America. I'm in WI, and the smoke blocked the sun and dropped temps suddenly in early Sept.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have wondered if the CA wildfires have contributed to spread.
The fires caused premature temp drop and cloud cover clocking the sun. Has ths temp drop and UV reduction iven rise to Covid spread?
Was the summer our opportunity to subdue, and squandered by superspreader events from Antifag and BLM?
I don't know how Canada was affected. I assume Utah was.
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I forget if this has been brought up. I was told that having A+ blood type makes one immune to Covid. Is this true?
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have wondered if the CA wildfires have contributed to spread.
The fires caused premature temp drop and cloud cover clocking the sun. Has [the] temp drop and UV reduction [given] rise to Covid spread?
Was the summer our opportunity to subdue, and squandered by superspreader events from Antifag and BLM?
Quote:Well, if you're going to believe that some fire smoke affected COVID-19 spread some, then you should agree that more fire smoke affected COVID-19 spread even more. And there was no effect immediately downwind of the fires. Other than that ... weather changes all the time. It would be hard to distinguish smoke effects far downwind from other changes in weather that were also happening.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I meant for the rest of America. I'm in WI, and the smoke blocked the sun and dropped temps suddenly in early Sept.
I don't know how Canada was affected. I assume Utah was.
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No blood type is 'immune' from COVID-19. I hope you reevaluate the person's expertise who told you that. That said, 2 studies indicate people with type O may be less prone (not immune, but less likely) to go on to develop SEVERE COVID-19 once they're infected.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200618/blood-type-could-impact-odds-
for-severe-covid-19#1
Now a team of European researchers have found that people with blood type A had a 45% higher risk of catching coronavirus and developing "COVID-19 with respiratory failure," compared to people with other blood types. On the other hand, people with type O blood had a 35% lower risk for this more serious form of COVID-19.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have wondered if the CA wildfires have contributed to spread.
The fires caused premature temp drop and cloud cover clocking the sun. Has [the] temp drop and UV reduction [given] rise to Covid spread?
Was the summer our opportunity to subdue, and squandered by superspreader events from Antifag and BLM?
Quote:Well, if you're going to believe that some fire smoke affected COVID-19 spread some, then you should agree that more fire smoke affected COVID-19 spread even more. And there was no effect immediately downwind of the fires. Other than that ... weather changes all the time. It would be hard to distinguish smoke effects far downwind from other changes in weather that were also happening.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I meant for the rest of America. I'm in WI, and the smoke blocked the sun and dropped temps suddenly in early Sept.
I don't know how Canada was affected. I assume Utah was.
Yes. The weatherguessers were saying that the temp drop was caused by the smoke from CA fires, so they probably had no clue what they were talking about. Rumor has it that meteorologists get indoctrinated in places like college and stuff, so they probably don't know anything.
They demonstrated the smoke effects from satellite imaging, which was likely Faked.
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JSF - if you think some smoke WAYYYYY up in the atmosphere affects COVID-19 transmission indirectly through weather, don't you think 100X more smoke that affects transmission indirectly through weather 100X more; and that people are actually breathing; would affect it more?
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I have heard of news reports of Obiden election thieves cheering on the Dem team, in rallies without masks or social distancing.
Seems Obiden is in a rush to create Covid Task Force, to respond to the increase of Covid from his rally superspreader events.
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So, I was looking at 91-DIVOC to see which way things were going - especially, to see if/ where new cases => new deaths, either increasing or decreasing. Overall, the link between new cases and news deaths is evident, even for new cases that occurred recently and in a less vulnerable population. What that did was delay new deaths, and attenuate the connection, while young people secondarily transmitted COVID-19 to vulnerable people. But it's clear new cases still result in new deaths.
In looking at the graphs there are some things I needed to decide to interpret them.
At low numbers (per 100,000, which is the graph I used) the 'signal' is extremely noisy, I think just by happenstance. Real life doesn't happen continuously and smoothly, it happens in spatters. And on top of that, it looks like there are many instances where data entry is the deciding factor in the peaks and valleys in the graphs over time. So I discounted any total signal less than 0.2 (per 100,000). There were some states where the numbers both dipped below and rose above 0.2, so I looked at how much of the more recent data was above 0.2. That was often the difference between what looked like a clear association, and an association.
And for some other graphs, the only way to make sense of them is to have a very long timespan that can be "smoothed".
And - I feel I need to point this out even though it seems ridiculous - there's the timegap between new cases and new deaths, since after getting infected, people need time to get sicker and sicker and then pass away.
Just briefly diverging from that, according to WorldOMeter numbers, there've been 10,534,260 cases and 245,557 deaths, for a case fatality rate of 2.3% as of November 10, 2020, 22:29 GMT. So one would expect the new deaths signal to be the new cases signal attenuated by a factor of 50. If new deaths less than 0.2 is too noisy to be reliable, that means that news cases less than 10 is uninterpretable because there's no valid new deaths number to compare it to.
That said ...
Wyoming ..............clear association
Wisconsin .............clear association
W Virginia .............(less than 0.2)
Washington ...........(less than 0.2)
Virginia ..................(less than 0.2)
Vermont ................(less than 0.2)
Utah ......................(less than 0.2)
Texas ....................clear association
Tennessee ............association
S Dakota ...............clear association
S Carolina .............clear association
Rhode Island ........association
Pennsylvania ........(less than 0.2)
Oregon ..................(less than 0.2)
Oklahoma .............(less than 0.2)
Ohio ......................(less than 0.2)
N Dakota ...............clear association
N Carolina .............association
New York ...............(less than 0.2)
New Mexico ...........clear association
New Jersey ............(less than 0.2)
New Hampshire
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Thinking ...
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Mysterious 'gene within a gene' found in the coronavirus
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mysterious-gene-inside-gene-di
scovered.html
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Just briefly diverging from that, according to WorldOMeter numbers, there've been 10,534,260 cases and 245,557 deaths, for a case fatality rate of 2.3% as of November 10, 2020, 22:29 GMT. So one would expect the new deaths signal to be the new cases signal attenuated by a factor of 50. If new deaths less than 0.2 is too noisy to be reliable, that means that news cases less than 10 is uninterpretable because there's no valid new deaths number to compare it to.
I would like to see some data on how many asymptomatic people don't get tested because they feel fine. That would change the total case numbers of infected and the fatality rate %, as well as the danger of spreading the virus. But of course, we can't find that number. What we can absolutely know is this virus is extremely contagious and more deadly than the worst flu we've ever seen. Perhaps, even more deadly than Ebola:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronavirusfrontlines/2020/07/31/why-is-c
ovid-19-more-deadly-than-ebola-an-infectious-disease-doctor-explains/?sh=7c7144f2f734
"The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19 illness surpassed a grim milestone in early July. The number of deaths from Covid-19 in Africa—more than 11,950—exceeded the total number of people who died during the largest-ever Ebola outbreak in West Africa, according to the World Health Organization.
How could this be? How could a disease that usually kills greater than 60% of its victims be outgunned by Covid-19, which “only” kills about approximately 4% of its victims, by the latest numbers.
The answer relates to one fundamental aspect of most viruses. They don’t really like to kill their hosts. They can have a much wider impact if their hosts don’t die. This allows them to circulate in the community much longer and spread far and wide across the world for far greater impact.
When someone becomes ill with Ebola virus, they become bedridden very quickly. It’s really hard to be out in the community spreading disease if you are vomiting or having massive diarrhea. The people who are at greatest risk for Ebola infection are those who have very close contact taking care of the sick, bedridden victims—whether they are in the home or the hospital. Add to that, Ebola virus doesn’t spread until the victim has symptoms. This makes determining who is infected with Ebola and deciding who to isolate and quarantine much simpler than with Covid-19."
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