new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
PAGE 24 of 29
Many people with 'symptoms' get tested. The vast majority in most cases do NOT have SARS-CoV-2.
If the testing program is adequate and it's sampling enough people to be representative, you'll have a maximum of about 5% positive. (It's a sampling statistical thing.) From that you can back-calculate and estimate of how many people in the population actually have the virus.
Many deaths occurred before sampling was widespread. But since then sampling has really kicked up. The old case fatality rate before all the testing was, iirc, 4% or thereabouts. Since then it's dropped so that total number is now around 2% +/-. As time goes on, the early numbers will get washed out, and the total should approach the real value.
The other way to do it is to keep track of CURRENT new cases/ new deaths, accounting for the timelag between infections and deaths, to properly assign the right numbers to each other. And to keep track of them for a while and then average them out, since the numbers will definitely be 'noisy'.
But that's for people whose full-time job is culling through databases and reports, and I'm actually too busy in my retirement to do that.
I'm OK with a ballpark figure at this point. And even if it's only 1%, it's STILL 10X more deadly than 'the' flu - which isn't deaths from one single flu virus, but a combination of deaths from all flu viruses and flu-like viral illnesses in an entire flu season. AS A SINGLE VIRUS, it outstrips an armada of influenza viruses for lethality.
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This is a graphic that shows what's hard to get off of 91-DIVOC, since that website doesn't allow for data overlay.
The sequence of cases => deaths is easy to see, as well as the timeline where testing finally got ahead of deaths (when 'daily new cases' sets a new direction before 'daily new deaths').
But indeed, new cases => new deaths.
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the current situation
Quote:Now that it's taking off - again - the rise will be at an ever faster rate.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/12/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/inde
x.html
There are currently at least 10.5 million cases of coronavirus in the US and more than 242,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
Hospitalizations, ICU admissions and ventilator use are rising in every single state, the [Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Policy Lab] said; [and] "COVID-19 patients are occupying more than 25% of ICU beds" in every Midwestern state.
Some hospitals have reached full capacity and are sending patients away. https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/11/health/hospital-staff-shortages-covid-1
9/index.html
predictions with numbers and dates
Quote:Of course, as with all predictions, not only do these have error bars attached, but it's assuming nothing is done differently between now and then.
The previous ensemble forecast, published November 5, projected up to 266,000 coronavirus deaths by November 28.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts there will be 260,000 to 282,000 coronavirus deaths by December 5, according to a forecast published Thursday.
Another widely-used Covid-19 model is predicting 438,941 deaths by March 1. That model is run by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine.
But if states relax restrictions and mask mandates, deaths could hit a staggering 587,000 by March 1, the IHME said.
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Quote:
Covid-19 was present in Italy as early as SEPTEMBER 2019, study of lung cancer screenings shows
https://www.rt.com/news/506796-coronavirus-italy-blood-september/
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:Wasn't it already agreed and understood that the first few months of testing would not reveal the entier specrum of cases, such as the asymptomatic and youth?
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Thinking ...
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
And now with vastly larger quantity of testing, the results are "finding" the previously hidden sector, the cases which were previously not tested.
So this sudden "rise" or explosion of newly reported cases is exactly what everybody knew would be found when testing caught up, right?
Or did I miss something way back then?
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Hospitalizations and deaths are the more reliable metrics, as I stated WAY back at the beginning of the thread.
HOWEVER - they lag the virus spread considerably. If you need to know what's happening RIGHT NOW, you need to look at current infections numbers, immediately past infections numbers, and percent positivity, with the understanding that ^'cases' will always lead to ^deaths; and that positivity rates > 5% mean your testing is falling way behind actual cases.
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So, I believe I've concluded my quest to understand 'how SARS-CoV-2 spreads through a population'.
This post started with Sweden having to impose tough new rules due to an explosion of cases, and a beginning surge in deaths.
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavirus/1605539591-in-first-sweden-
bans-gatherings-of-more-than-8-people-as-covid-19-cases-rise ...
After suffering a per capita fatality rate easily 10X more than its Nordic neighbors http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ Sweden has had to start imposing strong restrictions due to soaring cases - and deaths. (Where 'cases' rise, 'deaths' inevitably follow.).
As you might know, all along I've been wondering how exactly the virus moves through a population. And I think there are 2 things that needed to be separated out, which, due to the history of the virus, was difficult: 1) detectability, and 2) actual transmission/ cases.
Superspreader events
For a long time there was an idea that very few people transmitted the virus, and that it depended on 'superspreader' events for spread, which I think of as being a combination of circumstances and really effective transmitters - like the old Chinese guy on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, who managed to infect dozens, if not over a hundred, in his few days on board.
At the time, in the early stages of the pandemic, because testing capacity was so low, the medical system depended on major superspreader events to detect the presence of the virus. And that led to a bias in thinking.
Small scale transmission
But now the theory is that even small gatherings transmit the virus, and there's good historical data that it was spreading in N Italy and SoCal (and probably Wuhan) months before anyone realized it.
N Italy https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/covid-19-circulating-in-italy-as-
early-as-september-2019-scientists-claim/ar-BB1b3yvR
SoCal https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/09/11/ucla-study-covid-19-spreadi
ng-la-december/
And with increased testing capacity, we don't need tens of thousands of deaths to announce the presence of SARS-CoV-2, and can see it moving through communities and even families.
Anyway, given all that historic quiet spread, it looks like the virus actually spreads normally like the flu: between household members, between people just out in public, and so on, except it's more contagious.
But it ALSO has the capacity for superspreading, when conditions are appropriate, like SARS-CoV-1.
Historically, where it landed I think determined whether or not it was detected by the medical system at large.
In N Italy and SoCal it landed in the general population where it spread quietly, not creating a 'signal' event. (Eventually the 'signal' event in N Italy was triggered by a superspreading soccer match with Spain.) In Washington State and Sweden, it landed in nursing homes where it set off a notable conflagration that got a lot of attention. And in NYC, due to density and the high level of intermingling, after languishing for a while, it eventually set off a superspreader event, which triggered other superspreader events and so on. It went thermonuclear, "and it exploded" (to borrow a phrase from Galaxy Quest).
And WAY back when, before it was in the population very much, it was possible to contain it by limiting large gatherings - and by doing testing, contact tracing, and isolation.
But now that it's seeded itself throughout the country in even small communities, preventative measures have to be far more fine-grained, and take into account small scale transmission.
And fwiw, there's still a lot about the virus that's unknown. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions
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United States
On Nov. 16 14-day change
New cases 166,226 +82%
New deaths 796 +40%
NYTimes
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Interesting vid on today's NYTimes front page:
http://vp.nyt.com/video/2020/11/18/90130_1_graphic-containment-hp-vid_
wg_480p.mp4
The states with the fewest COVID-19 measures have the highest per capita COVID-19 cases.
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A beginning shift in the M$M?
Lockdowns could be avoided if 95% of people wore masks, says WHO
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/europe/coronavirus-europe-lockdown-
tiers-intl/index.html
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How Many Americans Are About to Die?
A new analysis shows that the country is on track to pass spring’s grimmest record.
Because the case-fatality rate has stayed fixed for so long and there are now so many reported cases, predicting the virus’s death toll in the near term has become a matter of brutal arithmetic: 150,000 cases a day, times 1.5 percent, will lead to 2,250 daily deaths. In the spring, the seven-day average of daily deaths rose to its highest point ever on April 21, when it reached 2,116 deaths. With cases rising as fast as they are, the U.S. could cross the threshold of 2,000 daily deaths within a month. Without a miraculous improvement in care, the United States is about to face the darkest period of the pandemic so far.
https://web.archive.org/web/20201119195210/https://www.theatlantic.com
/science/archive/2020/11/coronavirus-death-rate-third-surge/617150/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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The US just recorded more than 2,000 Covid-19 deaths in a day. One forecasting model predicts that number will keep growing. The group also hiked its Covid-19 death forecast considerably, now predicting a total of 471,000 American deaths by March 1.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
Trump views this as a success! Directly from White House: President Trump’s Coronavirus Response Has Saved Over 2 Million Lives and Outperformed Other Nations.
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-trumps-coronavirus-r
esponse-saved-2-million-lives-outperformed-nations/
White House on 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths: Call Us When 2 Million of You Are Dead. Apparently a heckuva lot more people are going to have to die before the administration takes this COVID-19 thing seriously. Anyway, just 200,000 deaths, woohoo, party time! Somebody get a cake and streamers, the White House is celebrating tonight!
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/09/white-house-coronavirus-deaths
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Signy, just for you -
Cases are soaring in LACounty. Estimates are that 12% of all new cases will be hospitalized roughly 2 weeks after cases go up. (As I heard on KNX1070) the trigger to hardline restrictions is when they think choices will have to be made between which patients get resources - between say a COVID-19 patient getting a ventilator v a stroke victim getting one, or a COVID-19 patient getting an ICU bed v a trauma victim.
Yes, it's heading towards T-day, but this is a time to be extra vigilant.
California coronavirus cases hit record for 2nd time this week amid new restrictions
COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen by 63.6% over the last 14 days, hitting 4,523, according to Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state’s health and human services secretary. The number of patients in intensive care — 1,155 — is 40.5% higher than two weeks ago.
With the virus becoming more widespread statewide, "activities that you normally do are higher risk today than they were a month ago," Ghaly said.
"We’ve seen reports of people saying, 'Well, I haven’t changed my behavior. I was doing the same thing a month ago,'" he said. "Well, today, because the background transmission rate, the level of COVID in our communities, is higher, even our everyday activities become higher risk. And we must be resolved to put up our protective guards even more than we usually do."
https://news.yahoo.com/california-coronavirus-cases-hit-record-1923539
94.html
L.A. is facing the most dangerous moment of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here's how we got here
A Times analysis found that L.A. County is reporting an average of 3,362 coronavirus cases a day over the previous five days as of Thursday. If that rate hits 4,000 cases a day — a scenario that could plausibly happen in a matter of days — county officials say they'll order an end to outdoor restaurant dining and require eateries to serve food only by delivery or takeout.
And if that rate hits 4,500 a day, authorities warn they'll order a stay-at-home order, which would allow only essential and emergency workers and those securing essential services to leave their homes, and impose a 10 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew that would generally only exempt essential workers.
If COVID-19 hospitalizations pass the threshold of 1,750 in L.A. County, officials say they plan to order restaurants to close outdoor dining areas. And authorities plan to issue a new stay-at-home order if hospitalizations pass 2,000.
In September, L.A. County recorded about 100 new cases of patients with COVID-19 needing hospital admission every day. "Now, that number is closer to 200," Ghaly said. The sharp increase in hospitalizations is a warning sign. "It is highly likely that we will experience that highest rates of hospitalizations that we have seen in the COVID-19 pandemic to date within the next month unless we take action immediately to substantially reduce transmission within our communities," Ghaly said.
The effective transmission rate of the coronavirus in L.A. County is now estimated at 1.18, meaning that every person infected with the virus on average transmits it to 1.18 people. "This is a marked increase from last week, when we estimated that the [transmission rate] was 1.03," said Dr. Christina Ghaly, the L.A. County director of health services.
https://news.yahoo.com/l-facing-most-dangerous-moment-170154245.html
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Scrounging around, I found some information that points to an answer about age v comorbidities and COVID-19.
As the 'deaths' numbers go up with age, the percentage of those 'deaths' with commodities stays more or less the same. That means that comorbidities go up with age, and seem to be the biggest risk factor, not age per se.
If age alone was a factor, the percent of people dying with comorbidities would be going down as age goes up, because they would be dying of COVID-19 + age alone.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Signy, just for you -
Cases are soaring in LACounty. Estimates are that 12% of all new cases will be hospitalized roughly 2 weeks after cases go up. (As I heard on KNX1070) the trigger to hardline restrictions is when they think choices will have to be made between which patients get resources - between say a COVID-19 patient getting a ventilator v a stroke victim getting one, or a COVID-19 patient getting an ICU bed v a trauma victim.
Yes, it's heading towards T-day, but this is a time to be extra vigilant.
California coronavirus cases hit record for 2nd time this week amid new restrictions
COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen by 63.6% over the last 14 days, hitting 4,523, according to Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state’s health and human services secretary. The number of patients in intensive care — 1,155 — is 40.5% higher than two weeks ago.
With the virus becoming more widespread statewide, "activities that you normally do are higher risk today than they were a month ago," Ghaly said.
"We’ve seen reports of people saying, 'Well, I haven’t changed my behavior. I was doing the same thing a month ago,'" he said. "Well, today, because the background transmission rate, the level of COVID in our communities, is higher, even our everyday activities become higher risk. And we must be resolved to put up our protective guards even more than we usually do."
https://news.yahoo.com/california-coronavirus-cases-hit-record-1923539
94.html
L.A. is facing the most dangerous moment of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here's how we got here
A Times analysis found that L.A. County is reporting an average of 3,362 coronavirus cases a day over the previous five days as of Thursday. If that rate hits 4,000 cases a day — a scenario that could plausibly happen in a matter of days — county officials say they'll order an end to outdoor restaurant dining and require eateries to serve food only by delivery or takeout.
And if that rate hits 4,500 a day, authorities warn they'll order a stay-at-home order, which would allow only essential and emergency workers and those securing essential services to leave their homes, and impose a 10 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew that would generally only exempt essential workers.
If COVID-19 hospitalizations pass the threshold of 1,750 in L.A. County, officials say they plan to order restaurants to close outdoor dining areas. And authorities plan to issue a new stay-at-home order if hospitalizations pass 2,000.
In September, L.A. County recorded about 100 new cases of patients with COVID-19 needing hospital admission every day. "Now, that number is closer to 200," Ghaly said. The sharp increase in hospitalizations is a warning sign. "It is highly likely that we will experience that highest rates of hospitalizations that we have seen in the COVID-19 pandemic to date within the next month unless we take action immediately to substantially reduce transmission within our communities," Ghaly said.
The effective transmission rate of the coronavirus in L.A. County is now estimated at 1.18, meaning that every person infected with the virus on average transmits it to 1.18 people. "This is a marked increase from last week, when we estimated that the [transmission rate] was 1.03," said Dr. Christina Ghaly, the L.A. County director of health services.
https://news.yahoo.com/l-facing-most-dangerous-moment-170154245.html
I think this is people not taking the virus very seriously. It's been here for almost a year and people aren't very good at vigilence.
Our family is still, basically, in lockdown. we go grocery shopping and mail letters and pick up medicines, and I thank my lucky stars that I started out with some decent N95s and have recently been able to purchase some more and done my level-best to make sure that they aren't counterfeit. But these are supposedly mfrd by a chinese compnay that is approved both by the CDC and NIOSH and seems to have all the right markings, so f
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OK. I just wanted to alert you to SoCal conditions. 
I'm not sure how tuned in you are to strictly local things!
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This is just to point out that it's not just the m$m that lies ... it's anybody with a single-minded agenda that can't have it exposed to the light of facts:
Quote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/danish-study-suggests-masks-do-
little-stop-covid-iowa-gov-insists-there-evidence-both
Danish Study Suggests Masks Do Little To Stop COVID As Iowa Gov Insists There Is "Evidence On Both Sides"
What the study https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817 ACTUALLY found was - masks did little to protect the WEARER, at a time and place where infection rates were extremely low and many stringent public measures were already in place.
But people knew that 2 months in. Masks MOSTLY protect everyone else.
So why print this extremely misleading article now?
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Just tracking major turning points:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/one-in-5-u-s-hospit
als-face-staffing-crises-within-a-week
One in Five U.S. Hospitals Face Staffing Crises Within a Week
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They keep saying stuff like this, but you take a step outside and everything is just as it always has been except for all the masks.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Scrounging around, I found some information that points to an answer about age v comorbidities and COVID-19.
As the 'deaths' numbers go up with age, the percentage of those 'deaths' with commodities stays more or less the same. That means that comorbidities go up with age, and seem to be the biggest risk factor, not age per se.
If age alone was a factor, the percent of people dying with comorbidities would be going down as age goes up, because they would be dying of COVID-19 + age alone.
That graph doesn't take into account that a lot of people just live with problems and/or don't
regularly go to the doctor for yearly visits at all if ever. Especially when they're under 50.
Also, unless you're a fat sack of shit, it's highly unlikely that those 35 or under would even
be expected to have a comorbidity if they've never gone to the doctor to get something checked out.
(You DID after all, just make a point last night to tell me that I probably have problems that
I'm not aware of yet due to smoking even if I don't' realize it, didn't you?)
It's extremely likely that 100% of those deaths 50 years and below were due to comorbidities that
weren't known. The number might fall after 50 years old, but probably not. Most people in their 60's
and above DO have at least one of the things considered a comorbidity.
(Using me, as an example, if I were to die of Covid, I would be one of those who died without any comorbidities. Yeah, I smoke... But "smoking" isn't a valid cause of death. I don't have high blood
pressure, I'm not obese, I've never had cancer. They would list me as dying without any comorbidities.
But maybe I do have early stages of COPD or some other smoking related ailment that has never been diagnosed before.)
It's not exactly as if everybody has the free time to test for comorbidities posthumously since
everybody is supposedly overworked as it is. They're more than happy to just mark it down as
another Covid death and continue to bump those numbers to get the additional Federal money.
I'm saying it right now. I don't believe that anybody dies from Covid unless they had other major
health problems beforehand, regardless of age. The one scary thing about this might be that their
comorbidities were "under control" with pills or other treatment and Covid adds something new
to the mix rendering the treatments for other problems moot. (THIS would actually be the first thing
I've ever heard about Covid that would be scary. Imagine if getting Covid means that the countless
people on current Blood Pressure medications are not being helped out by those pills at all while
Covid jacks up their system).
Take a look at charts. For years... decades even, the US has come up extremely high on the lists
for being one of the most unhealthy nations on the planet. Maybe the higher death counts here can
mostly be attributed to our general BS lifestyles and terrible eating and physical habits, vices, etc.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Thanks for doing a SECOND and completely misrepresenting my post.
And apparently your 'genius' failed to comprehend the logic - as simple as it was.
So, of all the people who died of COIVD-19, most of them died in hospital. DO YOU THINK (a good question for you as well as SECOND) that their comorbidities weren't noticed? For all that their BPs were taken, that nobody noticed hypertension? For all that their blood chemistries were run, nobody noticed diabetes? Or kidney or liver disease? Nobody noticed any comorbidities at all and noted them? Or that pathologists/ medical examiners didn't notice those conditions either?
And, oh, BTW, DO YOU THINK that people with whited-out lungs, steadily falling to deadly hypoxemia, and on respirators with maximum settings, had COVID-19 listed as the cause of death just because they were in car accidents? Or ODed?
And DO YOU THINK that nobody younger than 50 has any known medical conditions?
What a dolt.
So let me make the point - AGAIN.
IF AGE ALONE IS A FACTOR, THEN OLDER PEOPLE SHOULD BE DYING OF AGE+COVID-19 AT INCREASED RATES AS AGE GOES UP. THAT DROPS THE PERCENTAGE OF THOSE WHO DIE WITH COMORBIDITIES AS AGE GOES UP.
But that's not what the data shows.
I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.
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Apparently your hospitals in California do a whole bunch of frills and unnecessary bullshit.
It's very easy to assume that comorbidities are missed around these parts. ESPECIALLY IN CROOK FUCKING COUNTY WHERE YOU POSTED A CHART FROM.
My Uncle got his bladder removed and a balloon inserted because of bladder cancer at Hynes hospital. One quarter of a million dollars on the taxpayer dime.
Whoopsie!
Turned out that he already had cancer all over his body and in his brain. Guess that's why the new bladder didn't take.
They could have just given him $25,000 and told him he had a few months to live and go to Disney world and saved Illinois taxpayers a bundle if they did some tests before jumping right to highly invasive surgery and making his last month to live something I wouldn't wish on Nilbog.
He spent his last three days looking like cross-eyed Christ on a cross and sitting in his own shit and piss.
Fuck Cook County. Fuck Cook County Medical "Professionals" hard.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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DO YOU THINK that ALL of the stats out of multiple hundreds are all wrong?
I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.
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Yes.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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THANKS for the lulz!!
I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.
Why on earth would you assume that you, personally, have anything to do with my thoughts on Covid.
I just get a great laugh at your paranoia about it.
You don't bring anything new to the conversation. You sound exactly like a CNN anchor when the topic comes up.
YOU are the one that changes YOUR behavior when Covid is the topic.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep track of COVID-19, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.
Why on earth would you assume that you, personally, have anything to do with my thoughts on Covid.
I just get a great laugh at your paranoia about it.
You don't bring anything new to the conversation. You sound exactly like a CNN anchor when the topic comes up.
YOU are the one that changes YOUR behavior when Covid is the topic.
P.S. Sorry not sorry that I didn't stay up and indulge your idiocy all night.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep up with facts about SARS-COV-2, and driving JACKAREN over the edge with too much reality.
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Where we last had ON TOPIC FACT-BASED posts, starting here:
This is just to point out that it's not just the m$m that lies ... it's anybody with a single-minded agenda that can't have it exposed to the light of facts:
Quote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/danish-study-suggests-masks-do-
little-stop-covid-iowa-gov-insists-there-evidence-both
Danish Study Suggests Masks Do Little To Stop COVID As Iowa Gov Insists There Is "Evidence On Both Sides"
What the study https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817 ACTUALLY found was - masks did little to protect the WEARER, at a time and place where infection rates were extremely low and many stringent public measures were already in place.
But people knew that 2 months in. Masks MOSTLY protect everyone else.
So why print this extremely misleading article now?
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Just tracking major turning points:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/one-in-5-u-s-hospit
als-face-staffing-crises-within-a-week
One in Five U.S. Hospitals Face Staffing Crises Within a Week
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But the most salient information is this: it shows that 'age' is not a comorbidity. If age was a comorbidity, the percent of people dying from COVID-19+age(and only age) would go up as years go up. And that would drop the relative percent of people dying with other comorbidities down.
But that's not what the data shows.
The data seems to show that comorbidities go up as age goes up. And people are dying from COVID-19+comorbidities regardless of age.
ETA: What makes this so noteworthy is that it's the first time I've seen data where age is cleanly separated from comorbidities. Finding the data where they were separated out was fruitless until now. The subsequent calculations based on the data to estimate the effects of age v comorbidities is easy enough.
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And now for some NYTimes doublespeak. What I did was put all the contradictory statements together up top, with the complete article below:
† Yes, the coronavirus can be spread over cocktails and dinners. But these get-togethers do not account for the huge rise in cases seen now, the data show.
† Household get-togethers undoubtedly do contribute to community transmission of the virus.
† But are dinners and backyard barbecues really the engine driving the current surge of infections?
† The available data do not support that contention, scientists say.
† political leaders and public health officials have said ... that unmasked people are sitting too closely in kitchens and living rooms
† But many epidemiologists are far less certain, saying there is little evidence to suggest that household gatherings were the source of the majority of infections since the summer.
† Indeed, it has become much harder to pinpoint any source of any outbreak, now that the virus is so widespread and Americans may be exposed in so many ways.
† long-term care facilities, food processing plants, prisons, health care settings, and restaurants and bars are still the leading sources of spread, the data suggest
† It is nearly impossible to compare the relative contribution of social gatherings
† These gatherings, especially if held indoors, certainly can drive infections.
† In Louisiana, social events account for just 1.7 percent of the 3,300 cases for which the state has clear exposure information.
† I can get together with nine of my best friends and sit around a table at a restaurant. So why can’t I do that in my house?
† the data are not clear
† “There’s more of these social gathering clusters, there’s more workplace clusters, there’s more church clusters, there’s more youth sports clusters — more everything.”
† In this sort of conflagration, it’s impossible to estimate how much social gatherings contribute to community transmission.
† “More and more, our exposures are due to community spread and are not traceable to a single event,”
† In most places, the virus is too widespread to claim with any confidence where someone became infected.
† “Many individuals are reporting more than one exposure.”
† In Minnesota ... there were about 202,000 coronavirus infections. Nearly 12,000 were attributed to restaurants, bars and sports sites, and about 17,000 to congregate care settings.
† Yet more than 115,000 of the cases could not be traced back to a known setting.
† “Household gatherings would be much safer if officials put stricter limits on commercial and nonresidential activities."
Small Social Gatherings Aren’t Driving the Virus Surge (So Far)
Yes, the coronavirus can be spread over cocktails and dinners. But these get-togethers do not account for the huge rise in cases seen now, the data show. While household gatherings may contribute to community transmission, they are not the engine driving the recent spread of the virus.
By Apoorva Mandavilli
Nov. 23, 2020, 1:23 p.m. ET
As states struggle to contain the resurgent coronavirus, many officials are laying the blame on an unexpected source: people gathering with family and friends.
Household get-togethers undoubtedly do contribute to community transmission of the virus. Canada’s recent Thanksgiving certainly added to its rising cases; such an increase may happen here, too, as the United States embarks on a holiday season like no other. That’s why the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday warned so strongly against gathering with others outside the household during Thanksgiving.
But are dinners and backyard barbecues really the engine driving the current surge of infections? The available data do not support that contention, scientists say. Still, the idea has been repeated so often it has become conventional wisdom, leading to significant restrictions in many states.
In dozens of statements over the past weeks, political leaders and public health officials have said that while previous waves of infection could be link
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https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/17/how-covid19-has-been-curtailed-in-
cherokee-nation/
‘They’ve been following the science’: How the Covid-19 pandemic has been curtailed in Cherokee Nation
While the United States flounders in its response to the coronavirus, another nation — one within our own borders — is faring much better.
With a mask mandate in place since spring, free drive-through testing, hospitals well-stocked with PPE, and a small army of public health officers fully supported by their chief, the Cherokee Nation has been able to curtail its Covid-19 case and death rates even as those numbers surge in surrounding Oklahoma, where the White House coronavirus task force says spread is unyielding.
Elsewhere in the U.S., tribal areas have been hit hard by the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that American Indian and Alaskan Native populations have case rates 3.5 times higher than that of white individuals. The Navajo Nation, where Covid testing, PPE, and sometimes even running water are in short supply, has seen nearly 13,000 cases and 602 deaths among its roughly 170,000 citizens. The Cherokee Nation, with about 140,000 citizens on its reservation in northeastern Oklahoma, has reported just over 4,000 cases and 33 deaths.
“It’s dire, but what in the world would it look like if we weren’t doing this work?’” said Lisa Pivec, senior director of public health for Cherokee Nation Health Services. Pivec leads a team that jumped into action in late February, holding coronavirus task force meetings twice a day, instituting procedures to screen thousands of employees, stockpiling PPE, protecting elders, ensuring food security, and educating residents in both English and Cherokee language. With no guidance on contact tracing available from the CDC early in the pandemic, Pivec researched the World Health Organization’s Ebola response to set up tracing protocols; after the first case appeared on the reservation March 24, she made many of the contact tracing calls herself.
She said the Cherokee Nation has seen no cases of workplace transmission; Sequoyah High School, with rapid testing and masks, reopened for in-person learning this fall; and elective medical and dental procedures have been widely restored.
The tribe’s Covid response meets the approval of global health leaders. “It’s very impressive. It’s a reminder of how much leadership matters and how even under difficult circumstances, with limited resources, you can make a huge difference,” said Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. “It fits with what I’ve seen in the world. You see countries like Vietnam. They’re not a wealthy country, but they’ve been following the science and doing a great job.”
If the U.S. had acted as the Cherokee Nation did, “we would be doing so much better,” Jha added, “with tens of thousands of fewer deaths, and probably a much more robust economy.”
The Cherokee Nation mounted an earlier and more aggressive response than neighboring states that have waited months — and are still waiting — for a national response. Pivec and other Cherokee leaders remain incredulous at the continued lack of federal leadership. “It’s as if Russia had invaded the U.S. and the federal government said, ‘Every county should fend for itself,’” Pivec said..
Lisa Pivec
A citizen of the Cherokee Nation, Pivec has stewarded the tribe’s public health program for nearly 30 years; in 2016, she helped the tribe become the first to be accredited by the Public Health Accreditation Board. She said she’s inspired by none other than Wilma Mankiller, an activist who became the nation’s first female principal chief in 1985.
“She inspired me to stand up and say we can determine our own destiny. We can determine how we run our government, and we can determine how we respond to the coronavirus,” Pivec said.
Pivec gives much credit to Principal Chief Chuck Hoskin Jr., who leads the vast, 14-county reservation larger than Connecticut, in the rolling foothills of the Ozarks — land Cherokee citize
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Thank you for wading through the mostly bullshit and doublespeak that was the NYT article. I myself wouldn't have the patience to sift thru all of that. What I noticed is that they seem to think that if they can't link a case to a social gathering EXCLUSIVELY they discount social gatherings completely. That doesn't make sense. If you see a big jump of cases after Thanksgiving I suppose that will be their answer right away, but it will be too late. FWIW, I feel very safe outdoors. I put up my surgical mask when someone approaches, and chat at a safe distance with my neighbors. I mostly count on sun, wind, and distance, and so far it seems to be working.
I did notice this, however
Quote:As someone who has recently had a spate of doctors visits, and who will be having more in the near future, I wonder what this means. I DO wear my N95 when at the doctor's office.
Most states don’t collect or report detailed information about the exposure that led to a new infection. But in states where a breakdown is available, long-term care facilities, food processing plants, prisons, health care settings, and restaurants and bars are still the leading sources of spread, the data suggest.
But just OOC, what about the dentist? It's not like you can mask up and have them look in your mouth!
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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When it comes to health care settings, I think they mean infections of personnel.
Anyway, to comment a bit about the NYTimes article and the whole topic of spread ...
Do you remember the joke about the guy looking for his lost car keys at night under a streetlight? And someone asks him where he lost them and he says I think I lost them outside my home. And they person asks then why are you looking here? And the guy says it's because it's where the light is!
That's kind of like COVID-19 testing and discovery v actual spread. Early on there already was community spread at some level that was completely unnoticed and unaccounted at the time. And the only people they were testing were people who'd been in China, or were 'close contacts' of people who'd been in China. Not testing anywhere else meant of course they didn't find anything anywhere else. And so they assumed it didn't exist anywhere else.
(BTW very early on I said that the medical system at large would detect a viral outbreak in the community because of increased numbers of people ill and dying from pneumonia. I credited it with being far more alert than it really is. Only in retrospect did it notice, when people looked back and said - oh look here! Here are the early numbers we missed!)
When there were superspreader events that finally brought community COVID-19 to notice, it changed the medical community's understanding of where it was. After a short hesitation of a month of so claiming it was only a few isolated outbreaks and people in general were at low risk, they finally admitted there was general community spread. But then they were stuck on superspreading as the one and only paradigm. And at the time, that was probably the most prominent mode of spread, because, at the time, it hadn't entered the community at large in large numbers.
(The paper showing that COVID-19 should die out without superspreaders because it follows the 20/80 rule and 80% of people don't spread COVID-19 or only spread it to one other person was flawed, imo. It didn't take into account the 'lifestyles' of the population. An examination of that might have showed that the Hong Kong residents they studied had a Swedish mostly-self-isolating lifestyle.)
(I also had tried to game-out how COVID-19 might spread in rural communities, and figured that small towns would be vulnerable because everybody knows and interacts with everybody else; and that the only people spared would be remote farms where nobody goes into town.)
Anyway, time, and an unhindered exponential growth later - and what there is is COVID-19 well-seeded throughout communities. Wyoming for example currently has a 77.2% positive testing rate. Mississippi has an 86% positive testing rate.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/map/percent-positive
At THIS point, it's pretty obvious (to me) that the MAIN mode of spread under these conditions is small-gathering/ general public. Yanno, there just aren't enough superspreader events in Wyoming and Mississippi to account for all their cases.
The time to have managed this was before it went viral, so to speak. (As I also noted very early on) small numbers aren't reassuring. They just mean you're at the beginning of an exponential curve. The idiots in the states that didn't require masks back then when they would have done the most good, are finding out that sometimes, it pays to look down the road and be proactive, instead of driving pedal to the metal looking in the rearview and being reactive.
Well, whatever. It COULD have been far far better than this. It really didn't have to be this way.
Now all anyone can do is cross their fingers and hope that the potential long-term consequences of COVID-19 - like heart and kidney failure, strokes and dementia, asthma and COPD and respiratory failure - don't materialize.
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Kiki, thank you for posting that article. I am so glad to see the Cherokee doing so well in the bad time.
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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/27/opinions/scientifically-illiterate-
scotus-covid-decision-sachs/index.html
Supreme Court's scientifically illiterate decision will cost lives
It will. As does anti-masking, and other belief-based attitudes. Religions, literal and figurative, are based in denying reality.
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previous predictions
Quote:
The previous ensemble forecast, published November 5, projected up to 266,000 coronavirus deaths by November 28.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts there will be 260,000 to 282,000 coronavirus deaths by December 5, according to a forecast published Thursday.
Another widely-used Covid-19 model is predicting 438,941 deaths by March 1. That model is run by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine.
But if states relax restrictions and mask mandates, deaths could hit a staggering 587,000 by March 1, the IHME said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/27/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.
html
nearly another 60,000 people could lose their lives over the next three weeks, according to an ensemble forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week
It sure would have been nice of them to post a link and actual numbers and dates.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/27/opinions/scientifically-illiterate-
scotus-covid-decision-sachs/index.html
Supreme Court's scientifically illiterate decision will cost lives
It will. As does anti-masking, and other belief-based attitudes. Religions, literal and figurative, are based in denying reality.
Cool.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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SIGNY - the next few months are going to be a time where you definitely don't want to get sick.
Quote:
New COVID-19 spike spreading beyond urban areas to all corners of California
The data suggest California will face new problems in December if the unprecedented rise in cases continues. In earlier phases of the pandemic, different parts of California could help harder-hit areas, like San Diego County and San Francisco taking in patients from Imperial County. But that could be difficult in this wave, with the pandemic worsening in most places across California simultaneously.
“We can’t depend on our counties next to us because they are under the same stress and strain,” said Dr. Marty Fenstersheib, the Santa Clara County COVID-19 testing officer. “They can’t provide us with beds in their counties. So we are on our own. And our hospitals are hurting at this point.”
https://ktla.com/news/california/new-covid-19-spike-spreading-beyond-u
rban-areas-to-all-corners-of-california/
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But before these next few months and subsequently after these next few months is the time where you DO want to get sick.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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The state {CA} reported 21,185 new cases on Thursday alone, the second-highest figure ever for a single day. The record, 21,848, was set Monday — though that number was inflated somewhat by reporting delays over the Thanksgiving weekend.
The unprecedented case counts aren't merely a byproduct of ramped-up testing, either. The average rate at which coronavirus tests are coming back positive has also soared recently, from 5.2% two weeks ago to 7.7%.
Statewide, 8,831 Californians were hospitalized with a confirmed case as of Wednesday — an all-time high and nearly double the number seen two weeks ago. There are also more coronavirus-positive patients in intensive care, 2,066, than ever before.
Faced with COVID-19's relentless acceleration, the state on Thursday pulled an emergency brake — announcing new and far-reaching restrictions tied to regional strains on critical care services.
For purposes of the new statewide order, officials carved California into five regions: Southern California, the San Joaquin Valley, the Bay Area, the Greater Sacramento area and rural Northern California.
Additional restrictions — such as closing hair and nail salons, playgrounds, zoos, museums, aquariums and wineries; and requiring restaurants to return to takeout service only — would be implemented when a region’s intensive care unit capacity falls below 15%.
The new stay-at-home order takes effect Saturday, and the earliest it would be imposed is Sunday.
So far, none of the regions have dipped below the state-set threshold — though officials have said they expect all of them will do so soon.
Like the state, L.A. County is contending with unprecedented numbers of new infections and hospitalizations.
The county set records for both Thursday — reporting an all-time-daily high of 7,713 new cases and 2,668 patients with a confirmed case in its hospitals.
https://news.yahoo.com/state-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-190525324
.html
Four of the regions are expected to have less than 15% of ICU capacity by early December: Southern California, the San Joaquin Valley, the greater Sacramento area and rural Northern California. The Bay Area is expected to hit that threshold in mid- to late December.
Here’s the current available ICU capacity by region, based on actual numbers, according to the California Health and Human Services Agency:
Bay Area: 25.4%
Greater Sacramento: 22%
Southern California: 20.6%
San Joaquin Valley: 19.7%
Rural Northern California: 18.6%
https://news.yahoo.com/californias-stay-home-order-hit-154909553.html
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Guess we're really screwed if something bad ever comes along.
What have you done today to earn your place in this crowded world? :)
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It seems that people with "significant" allergies should not get the Pfizer vaccine, as they can experience anaphylactoid reactions.
Guess I don't have to think too hard about the vaccine, since I have significant allergies and carry an epipen with me.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Guess I don't have to think too hard about the vaccine, since I have significant allergies and carry an epipen with me.
Chin up - it's just one of many vaccines, and I'm sure Pfizer will recalibrate based on these findings.
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Quote:I sure hope so.
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Guess I don't have to think too hard about the vaccine, since I have significant allergies and carry an epipen with me.
Chin up - it's just one of many vaccines, and I'm sure Pfizer will recalibrate based on these findings.
Thanks for the encouraging words!
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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I saw that too. Considering my last reaction to Prevnar-13 (pneumonia) I guess the Pfizer vax is not for me either.
But there are many others, even ones based on a completely different technology with different proteins. So I'm keeping an eye out for their suitability.
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First, the more nuanced, accurate reporting by the LATimes.
The FDA didn’t ‘approve’ Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine. Here’s why
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-12-12/why-fda-didnt-approve
-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-eua
What the LATimes notes is that the vaccine got "emergency use authorization", not "approval".
And now for the shading into downright misrepresentation.
FDA authorizes Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fda-approves-pfizer-vaccine-emergency-use
-fight-covid-19/
First Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine shipments to be delivered to US distribution sites starting Monday
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/12/12/covid-vaccine-di
stribution-first-pfizer-shipments-arrive-monday/6521379002/
With F.D.A. approval, Pfizer will ship millions of vaccine doses immediately.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/world/millions-of-pfizer-vaccine-do
ses-to-be-shipped-immediately-after-fda-approval.html
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OK. FINALLY.
ACTUAL CDC NUMBERS for SOME causes of death for SOME of 2020.
Now, the CDC cautions that these numbers are "provisional" and "incomplete".
But their numbers show that deaths from OTHER medical causes, like hypertension, diabetes, kidney failure and so on, are HIGHER than before COVID-19, not less.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
For example, additional "excess" deaths above normal since February 2, 2020 for
influenza and pneumonia IIXXXXXXXXXX 3,054
chronic lower respiratory disease XXXXXX 1,026
other diseases of the respiratory system IX 1,921
Big ticket killers and the excess death contributions are
Alzheimer's disease and dementia XXXX 37,125
Hypertensive diseases IIXXXXXXXXXXX 21,954
Ischemic heart disease IXXXXXXXXXXX 14,504
Diabetes XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13,739
All in all, 117,383 EXTRA people are estimated to have died in addition to deaths from COVID-19.
(Suicides, accidents, and homicides are excluded as the CDC notes, many investigations are still ongoing.)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Dr. Woolf also warned that many people who are not captured in mortality statistics may still have adverse health outcomes.
“A person who survived the pandemic may end up deteriorating over the next few years because of problems that happened during the pandemic,” he said.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/13/us/deaths-covid-other-c
auses.html
X-posted in the 'some covid-19 thoughts' thread
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Hope your little dickies don't fall off and your ovaries don't drop.
You are the test subjects.
What have you done today to earn your place in this crowded world? :)
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SARS-CoV-2 was found in a wild mink in Utah.
This is not about the human toll, but potential environmental consequences.
Since ranched mink appear to be exquisitely susceptible to the virus, becoming ill and dying within 24-48 hours, I'm curious about the condition of the wild mink. But that wasn't included in any of the stories.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/utah-mink-becomes-first-wild-a
nimal-in-us-to-test-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB1bVE6a
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-updates-utah-mink-is-fir
st-wild-animal-with-covid-19-california-to-get-nearly-400k-more-vaccine-doses-us-deaths-top-300k/ar-BB1bWki0?fbclid=IwAR1Ieqtv13wCZW3v6pYvjdud_hZZSfS-l3bdkrivP3DVTUhocZy1he11y3o&c=8495145480156559174%252C3456294100466084595%252C14967239620863114758&mkt=en-us%252Cen-us%252Cen-us
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/utah-mink-first-wild-animal-us-
test-positive-mutated-coronavirus
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miscellaneous items of note
1 in 20 Americans has tested positive
One in 20 Americans has tested positive for COVID-19, Johns Hopkins University data and Census Bureau population estimates show.
Should I get the vaccine if I've had COVID? Doctors say yes
One of the frequent questions asked with the coronavirus vaccine rollout is whether people who have been previously infected should still get inoculated. After all, the one benefit from contracting the disease is supposed to be a level of immunity.
The Cincinnati Enquirer, part of the USA TODAY Network, posed the question to medical professionals in the area. All four doctors who responded said yes, get the shot, although it would be polite to let others who have not been infected get immunized first, considering demand for the vaccine currently outstrips supply.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-updates-utah-mink-is-fir
st-wild-animal-with-covid-19-california-to-get-nearly-400k-more-vaccine-doses-us-deaths-top-300k/ar-BB1bWki0?fbclid=IwAR1Ieqtv13wCZW3v6pYvjdud_hZZSfS-l3bdkrivP3DVTUhocZy1he11y3o&c=8495145480156559174%252C3456294100466084595%252C14967239620863114758&mkt=en-us%252Cen-us%252Cen-us
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Well, total deaths are a bit over 303,000. Anyone want to guess if we'll hit 1/3 M - 333,333 - when the clock rolls around to 00:00 Christmas morn?
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Signy, just in case you're not keeping track, SoCal data is dire - last I knew about a week ago positivity rates were at 11% (I think they're higher now), and as of last night there were all of 20 ICU beds left in all of SoCal (KNX1070), with many hospitals having no beds left. Transmission is now rampant household-to-household, and within households. (KNX107)
Stay safe!
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Quote:
U.S. deaths top 3 million, by far the most in one year
The increase over 2019’s total fatalities will mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918.
Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019. ... the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.
... life expectancy for 2020 could end up dropping as much as three full years, said Robert Anderson of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
https://apnews.com/article/us-coronavirus-deaths-top-3-million-e2bc856
b6ec45563b84ee2e87ae8d5e7
This is preliminary CDC data, unfortunately there were no links back to the CDC in any version of this story I found online.
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And of course there's the "mutant" coronavirus:
UK mutant coronavirus is probably already in U.S., Fauci says
Atlanta Journal-Constitution|3 hours ago
A mutant form of the coronavirus that originated in the United Kingdom is probably already in the U.S., according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
And of course there's the "mutant" coronavirus:
UK mutant coronavirus is probably already in U.S., Fauci says
Atlanta Journal-Constitution|3 hours ago
A mutant form of the coronavirus that originated in the United Kingdom is probably already in the U.S., according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Translation = Be afraid forever, sheep.
What have you done today to earn your place in this crowded world? :)
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Just as WISHI doesn't understand it's possible to disagree with people and even struggle against them without hating anyone (or in her extreme case, having her emotions, thoughts, and life ruled by hate), you seem to be oblivious to the notion that it's possible to be careful without being afraid (or in your extreme case, having your emotions, thoughts, and life ruled by fear/ anxiety).
But maybe you're a person who's internal life is ruled so much by fear that you can't imagine that either - how to consider danger rationally and be careful rationally, without fear - and your only way of dealing with danger is denial.
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Quote:Thanks for the info. I rely on my N95 for indoor exposure, but try to limit exposure as much as possible.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Signy, just in case you're not keeping track, SoCal data is dire - last I knew about a week ago positivity rates were at 11% (I think they're higher now), and as of last night there were all of 20 ICU beds left in all of SoCal (KNX1070), with many hospitals having no beds left. Transmission is now rampant household-to-household, and within households. (KNX107)
Stay safe!
With the holidays, people will be tempted to relax their precautions "just this once" and prolly accelerate the spread even faster. Also, drinking alcohol lowers inhibitions.
We should be looking at mid-January and later to see the effects of the holidays.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Just as WISHI doesn't understand it's possible to disagree with people and even struggle against them without hating anyone (or in her extreme case, having her emotions, thoughts, and life ruled by hate), you seem to be oblivious to the notion that it's possible to be careful without being afraid (or in your extreme case, having your emotions, thoughts, and life ruled by fear/ anxiety).
What fear?
I'm the guy who's entire family decided they're staying home for Christmas after deciding a month earlier they were all staying home for Thanksgiving.
That's on them. It ain't on me.
Fuck your fake pandemic, Karen.
What have you done today to earn your place in this crowded world? :)
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I can imagine you were extremely disappointed when nobody in your family bought into your narrative.
I'm curious - when the CDC officially reports that the US lifespan dropped by 3 years in 2020 are you going to call it fake news? Are you going to say they were ready to kick off anyway? Or what?
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Who said nobody bought into it?
I was just down with my brother last weekend with my dad, and we didn't sit around wearing facemasks while we were in the apartment or in his car. My Grandma asks me nearly every day if I'm coming over for Christmas too, but my Aunt that lives with her doesn't let anybody come by now.
There's plenty of people who agree with me. They just live with wackjobs. I'm SUPER impressed with their staggering show of cowardice.
P.S. Fuck what the CDC says. Fucking WMD's all over again.
You're a hypocrite and an idiot.
What have you done today to earn your place in this crowded world? :)
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Yanno, I NEVER bought into WMDs, was one of the very few people arguing against all of that here, and took more than my share of shit for it from the usual suspects.
I never bought into it because all there was was WH/ Pentagon/ State Department say-so, with no actual - what's that word again? - EVIDENCE. (Just like I never bought into the RUSSIA!!!RUSSIA!!!RUSSIA!!! stampede for the same reason.)
But believing something with no evidence is merely the opposite of not believing sometime for which there is a ton of evidence.
Personally, I follow the evidence. And there's not only my personally witnessed evidence for COVID-19, but the statements of the people who work in hospitals and clinics, and indeed of countries from around the world with political intentions as diverse as Ireland and India and Iceland, Russia and the Republic of Congo. And they're all saying the same thing.
And I'm not so deluded as to think the whole world is conspiring just to gaslight the people of the US, or moi in particular.
Now, what one wants to with that information is a completely different topic. But especially here in SoCal, I think it calls for personal safety measures.
As for your BS, I'm happy for you that you can close your eyes to hundreds of thousands of excess deaths and call it all 'fake'.
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I know you didn't buy into the WMDs. That's why you're a fucking hypocrite now.
It's a grand social experiment. I said so since day one.
Mass hysteria, inflicted upon us by the Legacy Media.
You're a tool.
What have you done today to earn your place in this crowded world? :)
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BTW, no you DIDN'T say so from day one. There was a time when you were all over the JH numbers. But then ... they didn't go your way.
What does your family say when you tell them every news item from anywhere in the world over all this time through any media you can think of is all faked?
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
BTW, no you DIDN'T say so from day one. There was a time when you were all over the JH numbers. But then ... they didn't go your way.
Yes I did. But I also was over the JH numbers for YOUR benefit.
Go back through my post history. Once this started spreading here and they were starting to talk about possibly shutting down stuff I said it.
Quote:
What does your family say when you tell them every news item from anywhere in the world over all this time through any media you can think of is all faked?
They don't believe the media any more than I do, about anything. They're certainly not taking any vaccines.
To this day, I still don't know a single person who's had it, unless you include the guy who did my gutters who I finally stopped chasing to get something fixed that his guys messed up after he used Covid as an excuse during the last few weeks of reasonable outdoor working weather.
The only people my old man knows who "died of it" were two women over 100 years old that my step-mom used to "babysit". One of them happened very early on and she died alone since they wouldn't let any of her kids or grand kids in to say goodbye to her.
Aside from some "numbers" thrown around everyday, there is ZERO evidence that any of this is even going on for most people.
If there were no internet, we would not be locked down today. If this were the mid-90's, people wouldn't stand for it, because they wouldn't have their smart phones constantly drilling them with fear and/or guilt. This isn't the Spanish Flu. This isn't the Bubonic Plague. Nobody is piling bodies out in the street and burning them.
Those numbers are pure bullshit and are stolen from other causes of death.
You're going to see a huge increase in suicides this year, as well as domestic abuse cases, divorces, murders and a lowering of the average American's quality of life that dwarfs the dot-com and housing market bubbles. And the longer this goes on, those numbers grow exponentially.
We're destroying everything over nothing.
What have you done today to earn your place in this crowded world? :)
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Quote:How many people do you know, Jack and keep up with so that you know what's going on in their lives? With your extreme disinterest in anybody but yourself, I'd be surprised if it's over 10. And, you know for a FACT the gutter installer was using COVID-19 as an excuse and he didn't have really it?
To this day, I still don't know a single person who's had it, unless you include the guy who did my gutters who I finally stopped chasing to get something fixed that his guys messed up after he used Covid as an excuse
Quote:I'm sure your family only watch a very limited selection of media.
They don't believe the media any more than I do, about anything.
But that's not what ** I'm ** asking about. What ** I'm ** asking about is what looks like YOUR belief that every research paper in every publication from around the world, every clinical study, every paper on every pre-print server, and every publication from French-language LeMonde and Paris Match (I read French) to English-language Xinhua ... literally EVERYBODY - every government, every bit of research, every publication, every tweet, on the entire planet - is faking COVID-19 as some grand social experiment.
Because if that's what YOU believe, that sounds nuts.
Quote:They're just stacking them in reefers. But I guess that doesn't count with you. Because it's not about you.
Nobody is piling bodies out in the street and burning them.
Quote:And what if there were so MANY excess deaths that the average US lifespan drops 3 years for every single person in the US in 2020? What will you say then?
Those numbers are pure bullshit and are stolen from other causes of death.
Meanwhile, you're making predictions that may or may not come true.
In any case, I don't expect you'll trust any numbers at all that come up that don't go your way. The only numbers that you'll trust, the only data that you'll trust, the only verbal communication from anyone that you'll trust, is what you already agree with.
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Time to see how the old predictions held up, and post a new one.
Quote:It was 266,170.
The previous ensemble forecast, published November 5, projected up to 266,000 coronavirus deaths by November 28.
Quote:It was 281,222.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts there will be 260,000 to 282,000 coronavirus deaths by December 5, according to a forecast published Thursday.
Quote:It was a bit under 32,000.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/27/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.
html nearly another 60,000 people could lose their lives over the next three weeks, according to an ensemble forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week (November 27, 2020 through December 11, 2020.
Quote:A new prediction has similar number.
Another widely-used Covid-19 model is predicting 438,941 deaths by March 1. That model is run by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine.
But if states relax restrictions and mask mandates, deaths could hit a staggering 587,000 by March 1, the IHME said.
Quote:That's a bit over half a million total by the end of February.
Nearly 332,000 Americans have died of Covid-19. Another 193,000 could lose their lives over the next two months, according to predictions from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
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Central and Southern California have 0 percent I.C.U. capacity, in a state already low on hospital beds.
New York Times|2 days ago
L.A. County is out of ICU beds and dangerously low on oxygen
Digital Journal|2 days ago
I'm not sure what the capacity is today - perhaps people have croaked and opened up a few beds.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
L.A. County is out of ICU beds and dangerously low on oxygen
Digital Journal|2 days ago
It sure is a good thing we live on a planet with enough oxygen to support 8 Billion people.
What have you done today to earn your place in this crowded world? :)
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SIX, in another thread you asked whether anyone here knew anyone with Covid-19 and my answer is: Yes. My across-the-street neighbors both had Covid-19. The husband was really sick (but didn't go to hospital).
And my in-law's mom died of it.
So, yup, it's real.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:Supposedly the cases have peaked and are going down. There is some thinking that this latest peak was caused by Thanksgiving, which I supposed would be about right ... transmission on T-day, 1-2 weeks to symptoms and another 2-3 weeks to illness requiring hospitalization.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Central and Southern California have 0 percent I.C.U. capacity, in a state already low on hospital beds.
New York Times|2 days ago
L.A. County is out of ICU beds and dangerously low on oxygen
Digital Journal|2 days ago
I'm not sure what the capacity is today - perhaps people have croaked and opened up a few beds.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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So I imagine that Christmas and New Year MIGHT cause another peak, this time in early February.
But by then, many people (including my across the street neighbor) were directly affected by Covid-19, or know somebody who was, because all I've been hearing about is how people spent Christmas mostly with family members that they already lived with.
The riots - did they ever create a wave of infections? I should look that up. I not, then outdoor exposure isn't a main mode of transmission, it's an indoor problem. If they did, then close outdoor exposure is also a problem.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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I'm sorry to hear about your in-law's mom. A COVID-19 death is a brutal way to die.
I looked into the riots - and I didn't see anything. They began early June, but many other things also happened in June, specifically a lot of states lifted stay-at-home orders, and many young people traveled to Florida and elsewhere for their vacation.
So I specifically looked at Portland, because of its protracted rioting, and compared the rates of COVID-19 in Multnomah county with COVID-19 in other counties and didn't see any noticeable difference in rates or timing compared between counties, to Oregon as a whole, or to the US as a whole.
https://multco.us/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/regional-covid-19-data-da
shboard
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
A lot of outdoor things have been superspreader 'events' - like Mardi Gras and spring break, where there are a lot of people gathered close together outdoors (like the infamous Hot Springs pool party). But then there probably are a lot of people gathered close together indoors as well, as well as travelling together. So it would be hard to make the connection I think unless one did a really deep analysis of the numbers.
Something like 82M people travelled for Christmas or about 1 in every 4, who would then go on to have small indoor unmasked gatherings, and then travel back home. Nationwide, that predicts quite a surge.
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Interesting development in Britain:
Britain Opts for Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Confounding Experts
If a second dose of one vaccine isn’t available, another may be substituted, according to new guidelines in the country.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain
.html
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Medical care suffers across L.A. County — even basic services outside COVID-19 wards
L.A. County has been forced to temporarily shut down five public primary care clinics to help staff hospitals amid a deadly surge in coronavirus cases.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-01/medical-care-acros
s-la-county-suffering-covid-19-wards
https://news.yahoo.com/medical-care-suffers-across-l-190831830.html
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As a reminder, it didn't need to be this way:
Op-Ed: How I found a little slice of COVID-free utopia in Singapore
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-01-01/covid-travel-singapor
e-pandemic-quarantine-lockdown
https://news.yahoo.com/op-ed-found-little-slice-110647640.html
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Quote:
Britain Opts for Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Confounding Experts
If a second dose of one vaccine isn’t available, another may be substituted, according to new guidelines in the country.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain
.html
And not one day later ...
Quote:
We do not recommend mixing Covid-19 vaccines,' Public Health England chief says
Mixing Covid-19 vaccines is not recommended, Public Health England’s Head of Immunisations Dr. Mary Ramsay said Saturday, after government guidance was updated this week to say the interchangeability of Covid-19 vaccines was a "reasonable" option.
“We do not recommend mixing the Covid-19 vaccines – if your first dose is the Pfizer vaccine you should not be given the AstraZeneca vaccine for your second dose and vice versa,” Ramsay said in a statement.
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-u
pdates-01-02-21/h_d1d793728fc3d8b1886c8ad2846f07d0
THANKS! NYTimes, newspaper of record! (not)
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However, Astra Zenica, with Russian cooperation, is studying using both their vaccine and the Russian Sputnik 5 (one jab followed by the other) because ... apparently ... they're based on similar technologies and not mRNA. At least, that's what I've read. But all I know about Sputnik 5 is that is grew out of their work on an Ebola vaccine. Technical details are impossible to find.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Interesting. I'm going to see if I can find a link for that because it's a good data point in my list of information.
ETA
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/11/oxford-covid-vaccine-to-
be-combined-with-sputnik-jab-for-trial
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-01-02/russia-ready-
to-trial-combined-astrazeneca-sputnik-v-vaccine-in-ukraine
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russia-ready-trial-combined-astrazeneca-1804
27785.html
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:
Britain Opts for Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Confounding Experts
If a second dose of one vaccine isn’t available, another may be substituted, according to new guidelines in the country.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain
.html
And not one day later ...
Quote:
We do not recommend mixing Covid-19 vaccines,' Public Health England chief says
Mixing Covid-19 vaccines is not recommended, Public Health England’s Head of Immunisations Dr. Mary Ramsay said Saturday, after government guidance was updated this week to say the interchangeability of Covid-19 vaccines was a "reasonable" option.
“We do not recommend mixing the Covid-19 vaccines – if your first dose is the Pfizer vaccine you should not be given the AstraZeneca vaccine for your second dose and vice versa,” Ramsay said in a statement.
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-u
pdates-01-02-21/h_d1d793728fc3d8b1886c8ad2846f07d0
THANKS! NYTimes, newspaper of record! (not)
Sounds like that human experiment must have gone south in record time.
Who's dick fell off?
The first draft of anything is shit. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
As a reminder, it didn't need to be this way:
Op-Ed: How I found a little slice of COVID-free utopia in Singapore
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-01-01/covid-travel-singapor
e-pandemic-quarantine-lockdown
https://news.yahoo.com/op-ed-found-little-slice-110647640.html
Yeah. It did.
Once it's out, it's out.
Maybe if the Chinese did a better job with it and/or didn't lie to everybody about it and travel bans were instituted immediately from in and out of China it could have been contained.
We're all going to get it if we haven't already.
The first draft of anything is shit. :)
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Jesus Christ... did you actually read that article?
How awful.
Quote:
I lived in complete isolation.
Sure... It was in a five star hotel. (Which I'm SURE she got on the luck of the draw that everybody else has, and not at all because she was a US reporter). But if she left the room at any time after using her one-use key, she did so with the threat of 6 months in prison and a $10k fine.
I know we do a fairly good job of pissing away tax dollars in this country, but I seriously doubt that we'd be paying for 2 week 5-star hotel stays under a mandatory quarantine. No. You're getting Motel 6 with some daily hard boiled eggs pushed through a doggy door and armed guards in the hallway. And if you do try to leave, you're being downgraded to a 6 month stay in a place that will make you wish you were back in the Motel 6.
One of the last lines says all that need to be said about this article and the way her non-brain functions...
Quote:
...and the government was doing everything it could to keep its residents safe.
The first draft of anything is shit. :)
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I recently spent 14 days quarantined in Singapore, as required by the city’s COVID-19 protocols for travelers.
Noncitizens — as well as Singaporeans who left the city after March 27 — have to pay fees to cover their quarantine stays and COVID-19 testing.
I lived in complete isolation (for 2 weeks). ... Hearing people talk about "serving" quarantine and "release" from quarantine added to these thoughts.
But the experience was anything but austere. The location for my quarantine was a five-star hotel. ... Set meals, prepared by the hotel's chef, were delivered three times a day, placed on a chair outside my door.
While I was in quarantine, the headlines in the news showed the U.S. setting records for the number of new cases and deaths every day.
I felt like I was in a COVID-free utopia.
I say it’s wicked good.
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Yeah. I read it too.
What's your point?
She got a 5 star hotel stay on the government dime that she supposedly "won" in a lottery.
We wouldn't get that here. We'd get Motel 6 and a continental breakfast shoved through the doggy door each morning. And they're be armed guards standing outside the hallway since that's cheaper than installing security locks outside the doors for one-use keys.
And she wraps up the article by stating she loves that the government is keeping her safe.
I seem to remember a time when our government was keeping us safe from WMDs.
The first draft of anything is shit. :)
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There was no evidence at all for WMDs, which is why I never bought that story.
There's at least 20,427,782 pieces of evidence in the US alone for COVID-19 (as of today), which is why you should accept it as reality.
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Quote:The "one other" is an India-developed vaccine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/world/asia/india-covid-19-vaccine.h
tml
India Approves Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine and 1 Other
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-02/india-grants-emerge
ncy-approval-to-astra-oxford-covid-19-vaccine
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-covaxin-ti
me-idUSKBN2970KI
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
There was no evidence at all for WMDs, which is why I never bought that story.
There's at least 20,427,782 pieces of evidence in the US alone for COVID-19 (as of today), which is why you should accept it as reality.
Not even my point.
Anybody who relies on their government to keep them safe doesn't deserve to be safe.
But do keep on taking your marching orders with the rest of the sheep.
Sheep.
The first draft of anything is shit. :)
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Quote:You CLEARLY equate WMDs with COVID-19 as government fabrications! But hey, live in denial for all I care!
I seem to remember a time when our government was keeping us safe from WMDs.
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So, I want to take the time to deconstruct this article written by a COVID-19 denier and propagandist, to highlight all the various lies put forth.
Quote:Please explain how, then!
It Is Long Past Time for the CDC and NCHS to Clean Up the COVID-19 Death Counts
Stacey Lennox
Quote:likely is his first fudge
Some of us have been questioning the COVID-19 death counts reported by the CDC through the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for some time. Of course, CNN and the corporate media love the
Quote:Then he attributes a position to the CDC it doesn't hold by claiming it calls for lockdowns as part of some nefarious plot. These are the limits of the CDC's authority: https://www.cdc.gov/regulations/index.html
likely elevated counts to push their narrative.
Quote:Then he fails to provide a link to a report he bases his entire article on.
Lockdown Inc. loves them to justify their destruction of lives and livelihoods.
Quote:He claims the report says there are problems in Washington State, not the US.
A report from the Freedom Foundation, a Washington State think tank, explains why. The foundation’s original analysis of deaths
Quote:may have
in the state found the number
Quote:And by focusing on Washington State, he implies the CDC gets its numbers from state data. It doesn't. It PURCHASES all death certificates from around the country and compiles the data separately.
may have been inflated by as much as 13%:
In May, a report released by the Freedom Foundation, an Olympia-based free-market think tank, revealed the DOH was attributing to COVID-19 every death in which the deceased previously tested positive for the virus. However, it’s clear that catching the disease and dying of it are two very different matters.
Quote:Here he's still focusing on Washington State's numbers as if they were meaningful ...
Washington’s data was riddled with cases — as much as 13 percent of the total — in which the death certificate made no reference to COVID-19 as a cause of death. In several cases, even gunshot deaths were chalked up to the virus.
Quote:... but apparently accepting the validity of DEATH CERTIFICATES.
While the Department of Health did remove 200 deaths from the count, the Freedom Foundation did another analysis. Combining data sources from the Department of Health for nearly 2,000 deaths as of early September,
Quote:Now he finally addresses the CDC, and completely misrepresents the data, which CLEARLY show that bad things happen when you have "Conditions mentioned in conjunction with COVID-19" like "pneumonia unspecified" 96,314 deaths, or "acute respiratory failure" 50,728 deaths, or "respiratory failure, unspecified" 37,683 deaths. Who'd a' thunk COVID-19 could cause pneumonia and respiratory failure?
the new analysis found that 170 death certificates did not mention COVID-19. Another 171 deaths had no causal connection to the virus. According to the Post Millennial, the group estimates Washington’s death counts could be inflated by as much as 20%.
Quote:snicker
New data from the CDC regarding the conditions contributing to deaths where COVID-19 is also involved clearly demonstrates deaths from the virus are overestimated nationwide.
And THEN he goes on to equate "what's in a patient's chart" with "primary cause of death" listed on a death certificate?
REALLY? Stacey? Do you think nobody notices how you lie?
Quote:Then he goes on to quote his own BS
This is not surprising given the loose guidelines for attributing a death to COVID-19 and the financial incentives through public and private insurance to put COVID-19 on a patient’s chart.
Quote:
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:You CLEARLY equate WMDs with COVID-19 as government fabrications! But hey, live in denial for all I care!
I seem to remember a time when our government was keeping us safe from WMDs.
Covid exists, just as there were WMD's somewhere in that region of the globe.
You've bought into one hysteria and not the other.
Sad.
Fuck your reliance on the very same Government that lied to you about WMDs to protect you from Covid. You sicken me.
The first draft of anything is shit. :)
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Quote me where I "relied" on government protection.
I posted a story, which was one person's experience, reaction, and opinion. If I can't post something like that here to point out DIFFERENCES FROM THE US from around the globe, then you have no business posting anything at all, because all YOU do is whine your endless self-centered whine and hyperventilate.
And, no, it didn't have to be this way. Singapore is merely one alternate example. Canada is another.
OTOH we could have been like Brazil. HEY!! We ARE like Brazil! OOPS. I guess that's one example we would rather not resemble.
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I brought up no less than twice how she had said that, and you avoided the fact that she did and that I was bringing it to your attention.
If you're so happy about her reaction to how they handle it there, and you can't even bring yourself to call out her bullshit on her reliance on her government to keep her safe, and then you post the article while saying a phrase that Ted says all the time "IT DIDN'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY", than you agree that you want our own Government to protect you from the big bad virus. The same government that lied to you about WMDs and a million other things and whether or not there are any truth to their lies, they never let a good opportunity to take away your personal liberties in the name of your safe go to waste.
There's no other way to spin that, darlin'.
The first draft of anything is shit. :)
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So, SHE 'SAID' SOMETHING! Big fucking deal.
This is EXACTLY like how you kept claiming I was 'for lockdowns' and 'full government control over everything' when I never - not once - posted any such things. You have a really stoopid way of reading what isn't there.
Grow up.
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One of us isn't down with complete government control in exchange for keeping us safe. The other one of us is.
Period.
The first draft of anything is shit. :)
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You can't quote me so you have to make shit up. But that's no different from usual.
So just keep making shit up.
JACK.
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Quote:LINKS, OR IT HASN'T HAPPENED. This is just as delusional as WISHY insisting that KIKI and I discussed giving all of our weaposn to Russia, and then magically made the whole thing disappear.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
One of us isn't down with complete government control in exchange for keeping us safe. The other one of us is.
Period.
The first draft of anything is shit. :)
We ALL know that your statement isn't true, SIX. Your mommy issues are screwing you up, just like WISHY's uncle issues are screwing HER up. Please, try to work you way thru them.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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Quote:MORE AT https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-new-mutant-covid-strain-ravagin
This Is Why The New Mutant COVID Strain That Is Ravaging South Africa Has Scientists Extremely Worried...
Scientists are telling us that the new mutant strain in South Africa has a total of eight changes to the spike protein, and Dr. John Bell of Oxford University is calling them “pretty substantial changes”…
g-south-africa-has-scientists-extremely-worried
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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