***** Sound of Freedom
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 23, 2024 03:13
VIEWED: 17421
PAGE 40 of 47
Attempting to extrapolate an estimate of Latin America Box Office for last 2 weeks, based upon performance from Mexico and Colombia.
This is not likely to be highly accurate, because scenes in the film actually take place in Mexico, Colombia, Honduras.
As of 10 Sept, the combined Box Office of the 14 other Latin American countries was reported as $8,912,582 by BOM.
At that time Mexico was $7,477,850 and Colombia was $2,507,576.
In the 2 weeks since then Colombia has added another 60.0% of it's total, which would suggest 14 others would have another $5,353,348 if they followed suit.
In those 2 weeks, Mexico has added another 45.47% of it's total, which would suggest 14 others would have another $4,052,357 if they followed suit.
If we ever find out, I wonder how closely those will align.
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I think it is already another $1.213 M added since last week's totals. Not including the 2 week bump from Mexico.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Attempting to extrapolate an estimate of Latin America Box Office for last 2 weeks, based upon performance from Mexico and Colombia.
This is not likely to be highly accurate, because scenes in the film actually take place in Mexico, Colombia, Honduras.
As of 10 Sept, the combined Box Office of the 14 other Latin American countries was reported as $8,912,582 by BOM.
At that time Mexico was $7,477,850 and Colombia was $2,507,576.
In the 2 weeks since then Colombia has added another 60.0% of it's total, which would suggest 14 others would have another $5,353,348 if they followed suit.
In those 2 weeks, Mexico has added another 45.47% of it's total, which would suggest 14 others would have another $4,052,357 if they followed suit.
If we ever find out, I wonder how closely those will align.
I believe right now that Latin America is behind about $9,494,001. This is based off of the assumption that they had not been updated after Weekend 2. I don't have any archives of BOM until the 22nd, but it was all the way back on the 11th that I made a post about the massive SoF update when Bruce raised the total International to $26,928,706 from only $9.15 Million.
I'm pretty sure that outside of Mexico and Columbia, the numbers for the rest of the Latin American countries hasn't been added to since then. As I said, I don't have archives for it, but I'm going based off of what I've written in previous posts.
And because BOM only shows the "Weekend" on the individual country lines and not the full weeks, I was applying a 0.57* multiplier week to week on the other 14 countries, based off of what I would believe the 2nd full week to be after estimating what their opening weekends were using both Columbia and Mexico as a reference to get that figure.
So with two full weeks to add for the other 14 countries, my guess is $9,494,001 that is yet to be added to them. (All my figuring for that is in the posts over the last few weeks).
And in case you missed it, I posted probable evidence that Brazil made nearly $5.8 Million last weekend, so were looking at a possible increase of $15,756,001 that doesn't include the missing Domestic days, or any countries outside of Latin America yet to be updated.
My figuring puts us easily right around $229 Million worldwide, with the possibility of unknown factors pushing it up to as much as $232 Million as of Sunday, what with our known as-of-yet missing countries, any possible unknown missing countries, the missing Domestic figures, and the fact that countries outside of Latin America are doing slightly better than I thought they'd be doing.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think it is already another $1.213 M added since last week's totals. Not including the 2 week bump from Mexico.
$970,724 of that was just from last night (Detailed in a post earlier today). $169,893 was the initial update for Poland that went up just a few days ago (so all of the Poland money is new in the last few days), for a total of $1,140,617. Not sure where the other $72k came from though with the archives and notes I have.
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Oh crap....
I was trying to figure out why your prediction was so different than mine is...
I forgot to subtract those new numbers from Mexico and Columbia from the total for Latin America.
That's $3,400,016 subtracted for Mexico, and $1,506,177 for Columbia for an overcount on my part of $4,906,193. So that's $9,494,001 - $4,906,193 = $4,587,808.
That comes in right about the middle of your two possibilities, leaning toward the low-end.
Well... That puts my figurin' right around $224 to $224.5 Million, without counting the known/unknown missing countries, the missing Domestic money, and whatever is still missing from non Latin American countries.
So we're back down to 1,545%, vs. Talk To Me's likely 1,578% right now.
38% isn't bad though. Just $5 Million more needed to get that, and there's no way that's not happening.
SoF should still be posting some pretty big numbers for a few weeks to catch up and then offset any bumps TTM might get in the twilight of its run.
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No!
Gorramit! This is so freakin' confusing because they won't update their freakin' sites with legit and consistent numbers.
My numbers ARE right because they were from predictions I made long before Columbia and Mexico got their updates. Well... almost right.
Even at only $4,587,808 not accounted for in Latin America as a whole, if you add that and the $5,762,000 from Brazil's opening weekend to the current $216,993,189 that BOM currently shows worldwide, that comes out to $227,342,997.
Now... What I did do is double count the 3rd week of Columbia when I did my math, so that's $802,928 that I shouldn't have added when I predicted $9,494,001 that was uncounted. (This would be Columbia's known 2nd week of $1,408,645 * .57). I subtracted the 3rd week in Columbia before using my multiplier on the rest of the Latin American Total for 2 weeks, but then I added that total which included 2 weeks for Columbia in full to the BOM International total and ended up counting Columbia's actual known 3rd week of $964,238 and also the $802,928 portion of the straight .57 multiplier on top of that.
So...
I have to remove that $802,928 from the 227,342,997 figure. So that's $226,540,069.
My current prediction without the missing Domestic, the known and unknown missing countries, the non-Latin American missing numbers through Sunday and the missing Domestic totals since the 12th is $226,540,069 or 1,566% of the Production Budget.
I figured throw half a million in for non Latin American countries missing money and an additional $407,561 on the missing Domestic days assuming a 55% drop week-to-week every day for let's just call it another $900k.
$227,440,069 worldwide (Excluding missing countries) through Sunday the 24th, or 1,566% of the Production Budget.
THAT'S MY FINAL ANSWER!!!! 
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Data updates which I am hoping for:
Today - UAE, 7 days after last update 21 Sep
Friday - NZ on BOM, 14 days after the update on 15 Sep
Croatia, 14 days after 15 Sep update. I consider it past due for a 7th day update after it's 19 Sep update.
Iceland, 7 days after it's update on 22 Sep.
Saturday - Serbia, 14 days after it's update on 16 Sep.
The "other" countries are all more than 14 days past their 12 Sep updates.
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I should make posts like that more often.
Within 4 hours, BOM updated Croatia, Iceland, UAE, NZ.
Croatia had a 1% drop on it's weekend. Which increased it's rank to 3rd. Also had more $ per theater, still keeping it's #2 rank there.
Iceland had the highest $ per theater for weekdays, of any week that we have data for.
NZ increased the number of theaters.
UAE still has the 5th highest $ per theater for the weekend - holding on since opening on 17 August.
No changes from Bruce.
I gotta say, with 1/10th the market size, Iceland is whipping a$$ on Lithuania here.
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Updating:
Sound of Freedom International Box Office.
I think I need to start a new table for this. Data is hard to come by, is not transparent, and seems to fluctuate a bunch. I will need to use Box Office Mojo for source data, and work from there. If other data becomes available, I will try to reconcile that.
Legend:
Each nation's entry is comprised of 2 lines.
In the first Identifier places, the order is by the stated Release Date. Next is the Country Abbreviation.
In the line below that, the Maximum number of theaters I could find for a film in that country. Then the day which they start their weekend, according to their Box Office Results. This is either Thursday or Friday.
The remainder of the columns have weekday figures in the top line, and weekend figures in the 2nd line, plus the subtotals.
The column labeled Date Range has the range of dates for those figures.
Next column is Box Office for those dates.
Next is the Rank of that Box Office figure.
Next is Theater Count.
Next is $ per Theater Average.
Next is the Rank of the $ per Theater figure.
Next is the Total, for weekdays only.
Next is the 7 Day Totals, which is both lines added together.
Next is the Rank of that 7 Day Total Box Office (when available, or calculated).
Next is the Cumulative Total for that Country.
Then are selected figures from the Prior week, to reference for comparison.
Data is culled from Box Office Mojo. Countries with Asterisks are using data from The Numbers - mostly because that data is not available on BOM.
Fields highlighted green are values greater than the prior week. Box Office, rank, theater count, $ per theater, rank, weekly total or subtotal.
Figures highlighted red are intended to be placeholders for fields which are waiting for updated or current data.
Week of 4-10 September:
Nation0 DateRng _____________________This Week______________________ ___________Last Week___________
Rel Thtr Weekdy BoxOffc Rk Thtr $ per Rnk Total 0 7 Day Rnk Cummultv BoxOffc Rk Thtr 7 Day Cummultiv
Dte Cont Weeknd00000000000 Cnt Theatr0000Weekday SbTotal0000Total BO00000000000 Cnt SbTotal0Total BO
18A Icel 4 -7 S00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 $10,440 __ 0 6
000014/F 8 -10S000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000$ 57,465 $ 7,039 #7 0 3 $17,479 $ 57,465
17A UAE- 4 -6 S00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 $53,592 __ 019
000200/T 7 -10S0000000000000000000000000000000000111,421 __ $599,290 113,996 #7 018 167,588 $487,869
18A SAfr 4 -7 S $ 8,786 __ 062 $0 142 __ $ 8,78600000000000000000000 $30,485 __ 064
000117/F 8 -10S $21,650 #5 053 $0 408 #5000000000$30,436 __ $297,538 $41,930 #3 062 $72,415 $267,102
18A Lith 4 -7 S00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 $ 3,491 __ 013
000177/F 8 -10S000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000$ 30,809 $ 7,822 #9 018
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I should make posts like that more often.
Within 4 hours, BOM updated Croatia, Iceland, UAE, NZ.
Croatia had a 1% drop on it's weekend. Which increased it's rank to 3rd. Also had more $ per theater, still keeping it's #2 rank there.
Iceland had the highest $ per theater for weekdays, of any week that we have data for.
NZ increased the number of theaters.
UAE still has the 5th highest $ per theater for the weekend - holding on since opening on 17 August.
No changes from Bruce.
I gotta say, with 1/10th the market size, Iceland is whipping a$$ on Lithuania here.
I updated the archive for BOM again here: https://archive.ph/IMxHI
$33,920,461 international today vs. $33,758,985 yesterday (+$161,476).
Croatia up to $246,464 from $202,342 (+$44,122)
Iceland up to $73,552 from $69,742 (+$3,810)
UAE up to $786,354 from $729,261 (+$57,093)
NZ up to $817,307 from $760,856 (+$56,451)
This is all peanut time here. These weekend updates are what the daily Domestic in the US would have looked like that first week they stopped reporting. It's why I kind of just threw everybody outside of Latin America (including the as-of-yet officially counted Brazil money) and the missing Domestic money into the "half a million" container in my predictions up through Sunday.
With all that unexpected Poland money, it's going to do quite a bit more than half a million, but it's still basically peanuts when you consider Brazil's uncounted cash and whatever it's still going to make in the rest of Latin America.
More unexpected minor bumps are always welcome though. It puts my prediction-if-everything-were-legitimately-counted-through-last-Sunday up to $227,601,545, which gives us the next round-up bump to $228M or 1,572%
Talk To Me is at $70,141,443 on BOM now, and both BOM and Bruce show the exact same amount for Domestic totals. So they're pretty much officially at 1,556% right now.
But they're way behind on reporting too. Even worse than SoF in some cases. Or... It's possible they're just not playing in some of these countries anymore too. There hasn't been an update for Mexico since the $386,523 it made the weekend of Sep 8-10. That could mean it's gone after 5 weeks, but that seems like a pretty decent amount to make to just yank it. No update in the UK since Aug 18-20th, but it only made $151,116 that weekend.
I dunno man... It's played for 9 weeks in the UAE that have been reported and it only made $1k on the 8th weekend and $3k on the 9th weekend.
No updates since Sunday Domestically, as per usual. With how little it lost the last week, it probably lost less than 25% every day so far, so it's probably got at least $625k more here in the states by Sunday.
I think I did some predictions on this a little while ago. It's hard to keep track of everything. I'm not going to do it again since it's such a PITA. I'm pretty sure I figured it would hit 1,600% before it was over though.
SoF should still beat that though because of Latin America, especially if that $5.8M in Brazil that I posted here from reddit is accurate.
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Bruce took more money out of the international kitty where it shouldn't have come from.
It was $9,783,953 yesterday, and now it's $9,739,756, for a difference of $44,197.
International Total still remains unchanged at $27,565,724.
...
Looks like it's Croatia. $246,808 now, when it was $202,611 yesterday.
Russia had the $120,677 added on Wednesday, which also came out of the Rest of World.
Those two changes combined were the only ones since I made the last archive on the 26th, and they both add up to the $9,904,630 shown for Rest of World then.
New archive on the 29th: https://archive.ph/Gt4pu
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