***** Sound of Freedom
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 23, 2024 03:13
VIEWED: 17421
PAGE 38 of 47
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Today Bruce updated Australia, NZ, Mexico. Total again remained unchanged, since 12 Sept. The first 2 early in the day, and Mexico sometime in afternoon or evening.
Mexico actually did better than the 38% factor that Colombia did.
I'll update Mexico when BOM posts the update.
Nothing new today at BOM.
I expect Mexico to update at BOM tomorrow, possibly late at night. Might also get all of the other Latin America countries. Some countries only update every 2 weeks. These all updated on 12 Sept.
I don't understand this at all.
His report date for Mexico is now 9/25 (Today), with $10,973,752, but he took all that extra money for the week for Mexico out of the "Rest of World" pool.
Same with New Zealand, Australia and the UK, apparently.
That's about another $4.9 Million that The-Numbers is now going to be behind BOM's international figures once they update Mexico and the others on top of the $1,787,245 he was already lagging behind.
This is what his international graph looked like when I last archived it:
9/22: https://archive.ph/PUnBM#selection-16187.1-16190.0
The "Rest of World" total was $14,804,652 at the time. Now it's only $9,904,630. Yet the International Total remains exactly $27,565,724 today as it did on the archive from even the archive I took all the way back on 9/17 here:
https://archive.ph/PUnBM
WTF is Bruce doing?
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Update on the Above post...
None of the numbers for the 16 Latin America countries on BOM have gone up since the archive I took on the 22nd here: https://archive.ph/URMtg
If you don't include Mexico's $7,477,850 they have on record, the rest of those 15 countries added up to $12,384,396.
Bruce's current "Rest of World" is now $2,479,766 less than that combined total, with no country-specific spots on his table for any of them.
Up until now, the-numbers and BOM were reasonably close to each other for the international totals, with BOM pulling away by close to $1.8 Million being only a recent event.
Of course, it would have been thought that his "Rest of World" total that had been up there for weeks now included all of these Latin American countries, but he's now treating that pool like it was predictive of what Mexico, Australia, New Zealand and United Kingdom was eventually going to make.
This is all very sus.
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After my post last night, Bruce added in UK update, without changing a single digit of "rest of the world' or "total"
I assume it was last night because the update has the date listed as the 25th.
Pretty sure Bruce is using Voodoo math, being opaque and just making up numbers.
I'm not too hopeful about figures from Brazil. Bruce links are dead, not interactive. BOM looks pretty opaque, intermittent, even for Oppenheimer.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
After my post last night, Bruce added in UK update, without changing a single digit of "rest of the world' or "total"
I assume it was last night because the update has the date listed as the 25th.
Pretty sure Bruce is using Voodoo math, being opaque and just making up numbers.
I would certainly like an explanation of what's going on.
Quote:
I'm not too hopeful about figures from Brazil.
What makes you say this? Do you mean you're not hopeful we're getting them anytime soon or that you don't think it did well there?
Quote:
Bruce links are dead, not interactive. BOM looks pretty opaque, intermittent, even for Oppenheimer.
Yeah. I don't like how either of them handle the International stuff. I think BOM's system has the potential to be far better. But when they get updates so infrequently and without rhyme or reason, with the worst part being they only get detailed information on some of the countries. I don't understand why they only put weekly updates for the weekend on the international countries too, making you have to do a lot of work on your own for each week to figure out what it made during the week days.
I just noticed that BOM's total went up a bit today. I'm going to figure that out and post a little update.
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BOM's International SoF Increases on 09/26/2023:
These are all of BOM's increases today over the archiave I took on 9/22 here:
https://archive.ph/URMtg
New BOM archive from 9/26 here: https://archive.ph/eHxMP
New The-Numbers archive from 9/26 here: https://archive.ph/CwvL3
INTERNATIONAL TOTAL: $32,788,261, up from $29,270,012 (+$3,518,249)
Lithuania: $41,914, up from $40,264 (+$1,650)
South Africa: $360,077, up from $326,451 (+$33,626)
NEW ENTRIES:
Poland: $82,957 (+$82,957)
And that's it...
So the international BOM total increased $3,518,249, but the only entries in the BOM tables that changed or were added total $118,233. So we've got an extra $3,400,016 added to BOM's international total that is not allocated anywhere yet.
My first thought was this was possibly opening weekend money for Brazil. But I just looked at the difference between what The-Numbers had last week for Mexico vs. Bruce's update for Mexico last night, and the difference was $3,438,609.
We already know from experience that it's kind of a rarity for both BOM and The-Numbers to show identical per-country numbers when they both get an update at the same time, so I think that's well within the margin of error there and it looks like BOM added Mexico's update and forgot to update the Mexico field with it.
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No more new figures from Bruce today, but France is now on the roster.
2 hours ago BOM updated South Africa and Lithuania, but the new numbers don't seem to add up, so I suspect more is coming.
South Africa has some increase in performance again. Higher 7-day BO than the prior week, and more $ per theater for the weekend. Plus 2 straight weeks of both increased weekday BO and weekday $ per theater.
ETA:
For Brazil, I won't be surprised if it does well there. But I have doubts about getting the figures from either site, timely or complete. Try to show me any film with consistent figures or details reported from Brazil, and every week.
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Updating:
Sound of Freedom International Box Office.
I think I need to start a new table for this. Data is hard to come by, is not transparent, and seems to fluctuate a bunch. I will need to use Box Office Mojo for source data, and work from there. If other data becomes available, I will try to reconcile that.
Legend:
Each nation's entry is comprised of 2 lines.
In the first Identifier places, the order is by the stated Release Date. Next is the Country Abbreviation.
In the line below that, the Maximum number of theaters I could find for a film in that country. Then the day which they start their weekend, according to their Box Office Results. This is either Thursday or Friday.
The remainder of the columns have weekday figures in the top line, and weekend figures in the 2nd line, plus the subtotals.
The column labeled Date Range has the range of dates for those figures.
Next column is Box Office for those dates.
Next is the Rank of that Box Office figure.
Next is Theater Count.
Next is $ per Theater Average.
Next is the Rank of the $ per Theater figure.
Next is the Total, for weekdays only.
Next is the 7 Day Totals, which is both lines added together.
Next is the Rank of that 7 Day Total Box Office (when available, or calculated).
Next is the Cumulative Total for that Country.
Then are selected figures from the Prior week, to reference for comparison.
Data is culled from Box Office Mojo. Countries with Asterisks are using data from The Numbers - mostly because that data is not available on BOM.
Fields highlighted green are values greater than the prior week. Box Office, rank, theater count, $ per theater, rank, weekly total or subtotal.
Figures highlighted red are intended to be placeholders for fields which are waiting for updated or current data.
Week of 4-10 September:
Nation0 DateRng _____________________This Week______________________ ___________Last Week___________
Rel Thtr Weekdy BoxOffc Rk Thtr $ per Rnk Total 0 7 Day Rnk Cummultv BoxOffc Rk Thtr 7 Day Cummultiv
Dte Cont Weeknd00000000000 Cnt Theatr0000Weekday SbTotal0000Total BO00000000000 Cnt SbTotal0Total BO
18A Icel 4 -7 S00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 $10,440 __ 0 6
000014/F 8 -10S000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000$ 57,465 $ 7,039 #7 0 3 $17,479 $ 57,465
17A UAE- 4 -6 S00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 $53,592 __ 019
000200/T 7 -10S0000000000000000000000000000000000111,421 __ $599,290 113,996 #7 018 167,588 $487,869
18A SAfr 4 -7 S $ 8,786 __ 062 $0 142 __ $ 8,78600000000000000000000 $30,485 __ 064
000117/F 8 -10S $21,650 #5 053 $0 408 #5000000000$30,436 __ $297,538 $41,930 #3 062 $72,415 $267,102
18A Lith 4 -7 S00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 $ 3,491 __ 013
000177/F 8 -10S000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000$ 30,809 $ 7,822 #9 018
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It looks like I probably owe an apology to you, JSF, for pointing out a pattern you noticed that I said didn't exist. We're going on three weeks in a row now where Talk To Me gets a projection for the weekend that doesn't get reconciled, and then there are no updates for it in the middle of the week. I'm quite sure it was not always clockwork like that, but it's gone on long enough for you to pick it up and I missed it.
If the projections by A24 are right, it had a pretty fantastic late-run weekend, losing only 19%, 21% and 24% on Friday through Sunday for a Domestic total of $47,647,317 as of Sunday. I'm going to split the difference here and call Monday's drop 30% for a Monday total of $41,913 and a current Domestic total of $47,689,230 through Monday.
I'm going to continue the numbers I added up through Thursday the last time I made a list using the same 55% drop week-to-week on SoF's missing numbers to get us up to Monday. (Now that we're missing 14 whole days, this is likely not to be very accurate at all... but at least it's something).
That would be an additional $87,918 for Friday through Monday on top of the additional $325,174 I calculated for the 9 missing days prior, for a total of $413,092 missing Domestic numbers.
So.... ACTUAL numbers for The-Numbers and BOM right now:
TTM BOM International: $22,365,361 (+$44,071 since Thursday)
SoF BOM International: $32,788,261 (+$3,518,249 since Thursday)
TTM The-Numbers Domestic: $47,641,317 (+$447,531 since Thursday)
SoF The-Numbers Domestic: $183,234,204 (+$0 since 09/12)
TTM's prediction for Monday at .70% of previous week: $41,913
SoF's missing 14 Domestic Days at .45% of previous week: $413,092
TOTAL TTM: $ 70,048,591 (+$533,515)
TOTAL SoF: $216,022,465 (+$3,193,075)
Based off of that...
Monday's (Theoretical) Numbers:
1. Talk to Me - 1,556% (+0%)
2. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,490% (+21%)
4. Super Mario Bros - 1,360% [FINAL]
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% [FINAL]
SoF needs 67% to beat Talk To Me. (About $10 Million)
SoF needs 19% to beat M3GAN. (About $3 Million)
So I'm not going to bother theorizing what SoF and TTM will end up getting right now since nothing changed from my predictions on Thursday from the little new data we got in the last 2 days.
These above Theoretical numbers are simply what The-Numbers shows currently for both movies Domestic and what BOM shows currently for both movies Internationally.
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Weird.
Poking around at BOM, rthe Mexico figures are in the Mexico page, but even refreshing does not update the main page, which lists the old figure for Mexico.
I'll add it in.
ETA: Also looks like all of the prior weeks of data for UAE have been deleted.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Weird.
Poking around at BOM, rthe Mexico figures are in the Mexico page, but even refreshing does not update the main page, which lists the old figure for Mexico.
I'll add it in.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
So the international BOM total increased $3,518,249, but the only entries in the BOM tables that changed or were added total $118,233. So we've got an extra $3,400,016 added to BOM's international total that is not allocated anywhere yet.
My first thought was this was possibly opening weekend money for Brazil. But I just looked at the difference between what The-Numbers had last week for Mexico vs. Bruce's update for Mexico last night, and the difference was $3,438,609.
We already know from experience that it's kind of a rarity for both BOM and The-Numbers to show identical per-country numbers when they both get an update at the same time, so I think that's well within the margin of error there and it looks like BOM added Mexico's update and forgot to update the Mexico field with it.
Well... That answer that. As I suspected, that wasn't new money from Brazil's opening weekend and that is exactly the $3,400,016 we were missing from the new money added on BOM since yesterday. Good catch.
Quote:
ETA: Also looks like all of the prior weeks of data for UAE have been deleted.
How so? I see 4 weeks on there right now, up through Sept 14-17. The total of $729,261 also remains unchanged from the 9/22 archive.
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