new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
PAGE 14 of 29
Quote:
6IXSTRINGJACK:
I agree. All of that is funny, despite it being true.
Which part made you laugh, Karen?
SIGNY: SIXSTRINGSHIT- why don't you just call KIKI a "Russian troll" and turn into a GSTRING?
#WEARAMASK
SIX: Too late. I already did.
She should probably stop spouting fear mongering propaganda that is enabling a shift of our government toward Communism.
First of all, I happen to think her numbers are correct. Certainly better than yours!
Secondly, if we're veering towards anything it would be fascism. But, hey, I've been calling THAT for years! *America is an oligarchy*, remember?
So given that the death rate is going to be high if we don't do anything, what do we do to stop the virus WITHOUT falling into out-and-out fascism?
Well, how about ...#WEARAMASK? You could go back to work, you wouldn't have to wait for ...and pay for ... a vaccine or treatment and give big pharma/ hospital corporations even more control of your life and paycheck than they already do. It's not even like you have to wait for "someone" to make a mask for you! You can make one yourself! Government and monopoly control over the economy would be rolled back.
How about #STOPTAKINGONDEBT? I know I'm preaching to the choir, SIX, but we've got to stop giving the banks, and The Fed, such leverage over our economy!
Jeez, just how about more people being rational adult human beings and taking rational steps to protect their own lives and finances, instead of being babies who're waiting for big daddy government or scientists or "somebody" to step in and helpthem, or (oppositely) being so deep in denial that they're willing to throw themselves onto the bonfire?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/coronavirus
-vaccine-ian-frazer/12144260
Will we have a vaccine?
Norman Swan: So, everyone is hanging out for a vaccine, and lots of research groups around the world are having a go. The Australian with the most success in vaccine development is Professor Ian Frazer. The virus was the human papilloma virus which causes cervical cancer, and the immunisation took years of work. Ian is still active in vaccine development. Ian, welcome back to the Health Report.
Ian Frazer: Norman, it's good to speak with you.
Norman Swan: What's the challenge here?
Ian Frazer: The challenge is the coronavirus, let's face it, we have a lot of people who are working to develop vaccines against this particular coronavirus, but we haven't had much success with coronavirus vaccines in the past, and that's partly because it seems to be a difficult virus to get a successful and safe vaccine against, and partly because the virus infects a bit of us which our immune system doesn't really do very well at protecting.
Norman Swan: Meaning the upper respiratory tract, the nose and throat.
Ian Frazer: Indeed. I mean, it's a separate immune system, if you like, of its own, which isn't easily accessible by vaccine technology.
Norman Swan: So just explain why not. Because there is a blood supply, we've got white blood cells, why is there this problem with the upper respiratory tract? And it's true of influenza as well, we've got a pretty lousy vaccine for influenza, it's the best we've got but…
Ian Frazer: We want to get a vaccine that stops the cells getting infected, and that really means that you've got to have something that can neutralise the virus outside of the body because effectively our upper airway is outside of the body.
Norman Swan: This is mind-bending but really it feels as if it's inside but in fact it's an external surface, even though it might be surrounded by your nose and throat.
Ian Frazer: Yes, it's a bit like your skin, you know, it's trying to get a vaccine to kill a virus on the surface of your skin. We do have of course the ability to put some antibody in there and we have a local immune system in our lungs which makes the right sort of antibody, but that doesn't connect quite as well as it should do with the systemic immune system that would respond to a vaccine. And one of the problems with corona vaccines in the past has been that when that immune response does cross across to where the virus infected cells are it actually increases the pathology rather than reducing it, so that immunisation with SARS corona vaccine caused, in animals, inflammation in the lungs which wouldn't otherwise have been there if the vaccine hadn't been given.
Norman Swan: Because you're trying to get the virus once it's in. This virus mutates, in fact they've been able to track the virus through the world and where it came from by its mutations. It is the mutation rate changing its coat enough to confuse a vaccine?
Ian Frazer: I don't think so. The total number of mutations to date has been quite small, it seems to be very small point mutations in the genetic information, and from what we've seen so far over the course of basically now four or five months of keeping track of this virus, nothing has changed enough that it would prevent the immune system having a go. We still have to identify what the best target in the virus is. It seems likely that it would be some part of the spike protein, which is the bit that allows the virus to stick to cells. But there hasn't been enough change there yet to prevent a vaccine that worked against the first version of this virus, now coping with the minor changes that have occurred.
Norman Swan: What's the story with antibodies to this coronavirus with SARS-CoV-2? Every day goes by and you seem to get a different story. Some people get a strong antibody response, some people
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
First of all, I happen to think her numbers are correct. Certainly better than yours!
Bullshit.
She doesn't just get to add the "a factor of x60 may be applicable" to all of her bullshit numbers she's been posting since the beginning as a get out of jail free card for all of the extremely erroneous numbers she's been touting as fact.
x60 is MUCH closer to the numbers I've been predicting since the beginning, and would only be my very conservative estimate.
And you say "ALL of mine"?
Do you argue the numbers I've been throwing out for daily US and world death rates as well as the daily birth rates for the US and the world? Because I assure you they're a matter of fact and they come nowhere near even leveling off our overpopulation problem even in your worst case scenarios of the Coomph. (Which, BTW, are looking less and less likely by the second. Which subsequently mean that mine are looking more and more accurate).
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:6ix, what you are doing is called Red-baiting. Republicans have been doing it since before your parents were born: "As the Cold War heated up in the years following World War II, liberal political candidates were frequently accused of being either Communists or at the very least sympathetic to the Communist Party." - www.jstor.org/stable/43264751?seq=1
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Too late. I already did.
She should probably stop spouting fear mongering propaganda that is enabling a shift of our government toward Communism.
She only believes the numbers that show worst case scenario and throws out any that destroys her agenda.
I had no idea that I was friendly with hostile agent Karen this whole time.
Second praises Communist tactics because he's an idiot and probably isn't even aware that he's doing it. Karen is not an idiot.
GString might have been right about her all this time.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Trump's lawyer, Roy Cohn, was a famous Red-baiting Republican who worked with the ultimate Red-baiting Republican, Senator Joe McCarthy. Red-baiting is in the DNA of Republicans. It is a habit of theirs very much like dogs eating poop. You dogs do it, but to humans it is disgusting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_McCarthy#Army%E2%80%93McCarthy_he
arings
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Well...
If you weren't Red, you wouldn't take the bait.
But here we are.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Thursday, March 12, 2020 5:43 PM
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/study-estimates-covid-19-may-hav
e-infected-over-9000-in-us/
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=13
Eh - it wasn't UCLA that came up with the X60 factor, it was Cedars Sinai plus me. They came up with a projected number of cases, I calculated the X60 factor from that and the confirmed number of cases at the time.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
I've already made myself clear.
The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.
You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.
In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I say throw the doors wide open! especially in those republican states that hate their fetters so much. But should the virus resurge, I don't think anyone should make any efforts to help them out either. It's called taking responsibility for your decisions and living - or not - with the consequences.
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lol
Says Karen from Commiefornia who is giving stimulus relief to people who don't even live here legally.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:And what amount of deaths would be "enough" to justify closing the economy?
SIGNYM:
SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
#WEARAMASK
SIX: I've already made myself clear.
The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.
You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.
In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.
did you even bother to look at the chart that I linked, or the video that I posted which shows the number of deaths per week due to the coronavirus versus other causes of death, like heart attacks and the 2017-2018 flu plus pneumonia?
https://i.insider.com/5e98cd7173d0c818b1055a52?width=1300&format=j
peg&auto=webp
When is "enough" enough?
And what's wrong with mask-wearing? Do you WANT people to die?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:Then you must think it's very strange that California leads all other states in per capita GDP by a huge margin.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol
Says Karen from Commiefornia who is giving stimulus relief to people who don't even live here legally.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
But what does that have to do with COVID-19 and allowing states to reopen their economies at will, but at their own risk??
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:And what amount of deaths would be "enough" to justify closing the economy?
SIGNYM:
SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
#WEARAMASK
SIX: I've already made myself clear.
The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.
You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.
In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.
did you even bother to look at the chart that I linked, or the video that I posted which shows the number of deaths per week due to the coronavirus versus other causes of death, like heart attacks and the 2017-2018 flu plus pneumonia?
https://i.insider.com/5e98cd7173d0c818b1055a52?width=1300&format=j
peg&auto=webp
When is "enough" enough?
And what's wrong with mask-wearing? Do you WANT people to die?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
100 Million deaths. I already answered that question.
I don't have any problem with easily scared people wearing masks. I have a problem with the idea of Government mandating that everybody wear a mask.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:Then you must think it's very strange that California leads all other states in per capita GDP by a huge margin.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol
Says Karen from Commiefornia who is giving stimulus relief to people who don't even live here legally.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
But what does that have to do with COVID-19 and allowing states to reopen their economies at will, but at their own risk??
Yet they can't manage to clean literal human shit off the streets.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
JACK:
Yet they can't manage to clean literal human shit off the streets.
And yet the libertarian paradise of Indiana has a far, far higher rate of opioid deaths than California.
But what does that have to do with COVID-19 and allowing states to reopen their economies at will, but at their own risk?
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Quote:
SIGNY: SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
#WEARAMASK
SIX: I've already made myself clear.
The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.
You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.
In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.
SIGNY: And what amount of deaths would be "enough" to justify closing the economy?
did you even bother to look at the chart that I linked, or the video that I posted which shows the number of deaths per week due to the coronavirus versus other causes of death, like heart attacks and the 2017-2018 flu plus pneumonia?
https://i.insider.com/5e98cd7173d0c818b1055a52?width=1300&format=j
peg&auto=webp
When is "enough" enough?
And what's wrong with mask-wearing? Do you WANT people to die?
#WEARAMASK
SIX:100 Million deaths. I already answered that question.
I don't have any problem with easily scared people wearing masks. I have a problem with the idea of Government mandating that everybody wear a mask.
100 million? In the USA?
SIX, you and reality have parted ways. NOBODY would risk a 1:3 chance of dying to "reopen" the economy, especially an economy that only serves to make the rich richer. What I don't get is why you (of all people) would promote such fascistic (and yes, I mean fascistic) nonsense. I thought you were all for freedom.
I can see sacrificing my life for something, but for sure not to go back to "business as usual". That would be worse than pointless.
AFA government telling you to wear a mask ... you're just throwing a giant temper tantrum. That's all this whole thing is about, isn't it? You convinced yourself that the economy was "doing great" despite all indications to the contrary, decided to take a "vacation" in spite of being advised against it, and just when you thought you had a gig being someone's handyman and the value of your house would go up with all the work you put into it, the rug got pulled out from under you. I agree with KIKI: Your life has been a series of bad decisions. You're smarter than that; you might want to look back and figure out what it is that caused you to do that.
Well, that's enough of discussing you, your temper tantrums and your nasty fantasies.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
SIGNY: SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
#WEARAMASK
SIX: I've already made myself clear.
The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.
You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.
In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.
SIGNY: And what amount of deaths would be "enough" to justify closing the economy?
did you even bother to look at the chart that I linked, or the video that I posted which shows the number of deaths per week due to the coronavirus versus other causes of death, like heart attacks and the 2017-2018 flu plus pneumonia?
https://i.insider.com/5e98cd7173d0c818b1055a52?width=1300&format=j
peg&auto=webp
When is "enough" enough?
And what's wrong with mask-wearing? Do you WANT people to die?
#WEARAMASK
SIX:100 Million deaths. I already answered that question.
I don't have any problem with easily scared people wearing masks. I have a problem with the idea of Government mandating that everybody wear a mask.
100 million? In the USA?
SIX, you and reality have parted ways. NOBODY would risk a 1:3 chance of dying to "reopen" the economy, especially an economy that only serves to make the rich richer. What I don't get is why you (of all people) would promote such fascistic (and yes, I mean fascistic) nonsense. I thought you were all for freedom.
I can see sacrificing my life for something, but for sure not to go back to "business as usual". That would be worse than pointless.
AFA government telling you to wear a mask ... you're just throwing a giant temper tantrum. That's all this whole thing is about, isn't it? You convinced yourself that the economy was "doing great" despite all indications to the contrary, decided to take a "vacation" in spite of being advised against it, and just when you thought you had a gig being someone's handyman and the value of your house would go up with all the work you put into it, the rug got pulled out from under you. I agree with KIKI: Your life has been a series of bad decisions. You're smarter than that; you might want to look back and figure out what it is that caused you to do that.
Well, that's enough of discussing you, your temper tantrums and your nasty fantasies.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
Let's start with 100 Million worldwide first and see where it goes from there.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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So, looking a Sweden via the latest updates on http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ I expected Sweden to be in first place in 20 days (I think that was day #50 on the chart)
Again, so far I've been looking at DEATHS PER MILLION because CONFIRMED CASES is hostage to the number of tests performed, and you MUST adjust the results for population size otherwise they make no sense ...
Few surprises showed up on the chart.
SWEDEN, the "do nothing nation" is still climbing at a faster rate than many other nations (excpet that other "do nothing" nation, Brazil). It overtook Swizterland, Ireland, and the USA some time between day #27-#30 and look on-track to catch up to the Netherlands by day #35, and France and Italy by day #40. (The chart times each nation by "days since the first infection was confirmed".) It still has that peculiar 7-day stepwise pattern which makes the data hard to project. My guess is they don't want to pay their coroners overtime on Saturday and Sunday.
It will probably never catch up to that poor little rich nation of San Marino (surrounded by Italy in the Appenine Mountains) with an astonishing ~1200 deaths per million (1.2%)
It may never catch up to poor little rich nation of Andorra (in the Pyrenees Mountains between France and Spain) with an astonishing 500 deaths per million (0.5%).
Both of these nations are tourist attractions like Switzerland, and tourism probably accounts for all of their high death rates.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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How are either of those numbers "astonishing"?
Boy are you people in for a rude awakening when something comes that is actually serious.
BTW... 1,200 deaths per million is .12% and 500 deaths per million is .05%.
Not 1.2% and .5%.
Making them less "astonishing" by a factor of 10.
At least you're thinking out side of the box now though and not going by confirmed cases anymore.
What made you finally come around? I've been saying that was bullshit since day fekkin one.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:I have NEVER counted confirmed cases, moron. I have been pointing out the problem with limited testing EVER SINCE I STARTED POSTING about this, which you would have noticed if you paid the slightest attention to anything other than your own feelz.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How are either of those numbers "astonishing"?
Boy are you people in for a rude awakening when something comes that is actually serious.
BTW... 1,200 deaths per million is .12% and 500 deaths per million is .05%.
Not 1.2% and .5%.
Making them less "astonishing" by a factor of 10.
At least you're thinking out side of the box now though and not going by confirmed cases anymore.
What made you finally come around? I've been saying that was bullshit since day fekkin one.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Now, how about getting back to your ridiculous plan to kill off almost a third of the people in the USA to "re open" a fascist economy?
Sounds like a winner to me! /snark
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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So. Singapore has seen a sudden resurgence of cases, and deaths. This is tied to their immigrant workers who live 12 to a room and are transported like cattle, standing up and jam-packed in the back of a truck.
A factor which has not been considered in the spread of the disease, but which may explain the varying experiences with different death rates is the number of people living together in any specific building.
In Italy, for example, many households are multigenerational, with great grandparents to babies living in one house.
In NYC, many people live in apartment buildings, and often several people to an apartment. In Sweden and Finland and California, smaller households live in single family homes, and grandma and grandpa are packed off to "assisted living facilities" (where they die in droves but don't infect anyone but each other and the caregivers).
If "social distancing" is the answer, and your most immediate and constant contact is your family, roommates, or dorm-dwellers, then it makes sense that the more contacts you have along those lines the more spread you'll see.
I sensed this with the military, but didn't make the connection to civilian life right away
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:Quote:I have NEVER counted confirmed cases, moron. I have been pointing out the problem with limited testing EVER SINCE I STARTED POSTING about this, which you would have noticed if you paid the slightest attention to anything other than your own feelz.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How are either of those numbers "astonishing"?
Boy are you people in for a rude awakening when something comes that is actually serious.
BTW... 1,200 deaths per million is .12% and 500 deaths per million is .05%.
Not 1.2% and .5%.
Making them less "astonishing" by a factor of 10.
At least you're thinking out side of the box now though and not going by confirmed cases anymore.
What made you finally come around? I've been saying that was bullshit since day fekkin one.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Now, how about getting back to your ridiculous plan to kill off almost a third of the people in the USA to "re open" a fascist economy?
Sounds like a winner to me! /snark
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
My point, dummy, is that nowhere near 1/3 of the population would die.
Quit your fear mongering, Karen 2.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:THANKS FOR THE LAFF !!!
JACK:
My point, dummy, is that nowhere near 1/3 of the population would die.
Quit your fear mongering, Karen 2.
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You're welcome, Karen 1.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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So, Signy, I know you've been busy elsewhere. Originally my thoughts were that to really explode, the virus needed dense housing, and lots of mixing.
But I've also been trying to find distinct categories of settings, and distinct categories of response. This is my understanding off the top of my head as to what was done where.
Sweden appears to be nearly alone on the 'do nothing' end. And it's a high-income, high-tech country that might be easily compared to other high-income, high-tech countries. BUT there are a lot of exceptions and caveats with the Swedish example. Half the Swedish working population works from home anyway, so social distancing is already built in to the country. And the population is very dispersed, so that makes Sweden not a very good comparison to countries with dense populations, or dense population centers. Sweden relies on volunteerism, and it claims that 90% are voluntarily practicing social distancing anyway. And the news I've seen about Sweden is distinctly contradictory - from they're not doing anything at all to they've recently started to impose controls to they've lifted those controls (about 10 days after the report they were imposing controls). And their testing rate is low. So Sweden is one example of one response, but not a simple, clear-cut one.
SK had a completely different response. It started mass testing EARLY, created a protocol for people trying to enter the country, and imposed MANDATORY (police enforced) home quarantines only for those who test positive and a 14 day home quarantines for people who recovered. In the public sphere it created a very strong social pressure campaign to wear masks, practice good hygiene, and avoid gathering in large groups. Other than that, SK didn't issue any mass stay-at-home recommendations or orders. But SK also has a peculiarity behind its data, in that at one point half of all people with COVID-19 were from the breakaway church that decided to hold large gatherings anyway. So its entry into SARS-COV-2 was extremely circumscribed to that group, and that allowed it to get a handle on who was infected very early.
Taiwan initially had measures similar to SK with the exception that it closed its borders and airports, but cases have spiked recently. Also, I'm not sure that they have as much testing as SK. BTW Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan are currently in the same place w/ cases/1M but got there by different routes. Macau is right across the bay from Hong Kong and is essentially Las Vegas, it simply shut down all its casinos, and has leveled off at a very low level. After a big jump lasting about 20 days, Taiwan is leveling off, but Hong Kong is still very much on the upswing. THANKS! Carrie Lam!
Anyway, Italy is a good example of ... something. Because it wasn't all of Italy that was affected, it was mostly some very restricted urban regions in the north. So, as a very urban example of do nothing until too late, maybe it works. Maybe the closest equivalent is NYC, with its very dense urban population that had unseen community spread for a long time as well. (And NJ seems very tied to NYC in terms of cases/1M and the shape of the curve.)
California is a good example of ... idk. Overall it has a really dispersed population w/ high levels of mixing - yanno, driving large distances from all over to get together in one place like work, at the store etc. And it has a curve that's unlike most others in that despite stay at home advisories, and while the numbers are really low per 1M, the curve is hardly bending. It's a puzzle.
BTW, looking at the data and how hard it is to bend the curve in dense urban areas, and how SLOWLY the curve returns back to zero, I have a theory. Assuming dispersed populations have an automatic cut-off in terms of mixing, once people stop making the effort to get together, the natural isolation drops the mixing to near zero. But a dense population will ALWAYS have a residual amount of mixing because you just can't get away from each other, even
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Well, my main concern was to try and compare Sweden's "do nothing" approach (altho, as you posted, in reality they ARE doing something, it's just voluntary) to a mandatory approach.
Denmark isn't a good comparison because it's a lot more crowded than Sweden, so in terms of population density, percent of people in assisted living, percent of people who work from home and technical capability Norway is the closest analogue and Finland would be second. None of them are big tourist destinations.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/879251/employees-teleworking-in-th
e-eu/
Sweden is currently at 146 deaths/MM (Jeez, last time I pulled out a figure it was 88) Norway is at 30.6, Finland is at 16.3 and (just for kicks) Denmark is at 59.4.
****
I can explain San Marino and Andorra, which are microstates heavily dependent on tourism. Switzerland is in the same boat. Spain and Italy also have a lot of tourists, and under troika-enforced austerity I would imagine that housing is more multi-generational than in the Nordic countries because assisted living is a luxury that neither the government nor individuals can afford, but I can't explain Belgium which is right up there with Andorra and still climbing. Also, you would think that Portugal would be the same as Spain (austerity, tourism) but it's not.
Anyway, your post sparked a whole lot of thoughts about "where people are exposed" ... at work; in residences; in open-air public; at mass gatherings like spring break, religious celebrations, and sports events ... and so far mass gatherings seem to be the biggest driver, place of residence seems to be another, and work - specifically in the tourism sector - seems to be another important one. But that is already evolving as the initial exposures spark secondary exposures (in health care workers, for example).
I have heard that "wealth is a Covid-19 vector", which goes along with my observation that in the west it was first prevalent in what I called the "well-heeled, well-traveled, well-connected".
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If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Plenty of poor people have had it and recovered from it.
They just don't go running to the doctor every time they get the sniffles like the rich folk do.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:The Swiss have plenty of other high tech and financialism income, so it's not as dependent on tourism. And indeed Switzerland is about 3,000cases/M, while Andorra is ~9,000 and San Marino is ~11,000. I don't really count either Andorra or San Marino though, because their populations are so low, fluke events could drive their statistics in any direction.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, my main concern was to try and compare Sweden's "do nothing" approach (altho, as you posted, in reality they ARE doing something, it's just voluntary) to a mandatory approach.
Denmark isn't a good comparison because it's a lot more crowded than Sweden, so in terms of population density, percent of people in assisted living, percent of people who work from home and technical capability Norway is the closest analogue and Finland would be second. None of them are big tourist destinations.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/879251/employees-teleworking-in-th
e-eu/
Sweden is currently at 146 deaths/MM (Jeez, last time I pulled out a figure it was 88) Norway is at 30.6, Finland is at 16.3 and (just for kicks) Denmark is at 59.4.
****
I can explain San Marino and Andorra, which are microstates heavily dependent on tourism. Switzerland is in the same boat.
Quote:In terms of ppm deaths, and not counting San Marino and Andorra, it's Belgium on a steep rise, Spain leveling off, Italy / France/ UK on literally the exact same curve (except France and UK were later getting there), then the Netherlands with a weirdly undulating curve, then Sweden and Switzerland on the same curve except Sweden's still soaring at the recent end while Switzerland is leveling off. I can account for the Belgium - it's a wealthy, highly international place with a very dense population. In terms of economy/ austerity/ density/ culture ... I'd put Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal in the same category. Wasn't that big soccer match between Italy and Spain? That could explain why those 2 countries specifically were so hard hit and Portugal and Greece weren't.
Spain and Italy also have a lot of tourists, and under troika-enforced austerity I would imagine that housing is more multi-generational than in the Nordic countries because assisted living is a luxury that neither the government nor individuals can afford, but I can't explain Belgium which is right up there with Andorra and still climbing. Also, you would think that Portugal would be the same as Spain (austerity, tourism) but it's not.
In terms of ppm deaths, Italy / France/ UK being on the exact same curve. But maybe because Italy's issues were limited geographically but are averaged out across the whole country, it puts a big kink in comparisons. But I can see both France and the UK being equivalent. But why they're both so high I'm not sure. BTW Sweden Switzerland and the US are on the same curve with some variation - the US's curve in time isn't as long as either of the other 2, and Sweden is still headed to the stratosphere while Switzerland is leveling off.
Quote:
Anyway, your post sparked a whole lot of thoughts about "where people are exposed" ... at work; in residences; in open-air public; at mass gatherings like spring break, religious celebrations, and sports events ... and so far mass gatherings seem to be the biggest driver, place of residence seems to be another, and work - specifically in the tourism sector - seems to be another important one. But that is already evolving as the initial exposures spark secondary exposures (in health care workers, for example).
I have heard that "wealth is a Covid-19 vector", which goes along with my observation that in the west it was first prevalent in what I called the "well-heeled, well-traveled, well-connected".
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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What I got out of this is that there is no "one size fits all" solution*. Some nations (or states) have many people who can work from home, others have high tourism/travel, some are manufacturing intensive and others can manage with testing and contact tracing.
Sweden can get away with an approach that NYC can't. And even with all of its built-in advantages, Sweden's experience isn't as good as similar nations with similar advantages.
Unless you're like China, and you pull out all the stops and do EVERYTHING POSSIBLE, at the point of a gun, literally locking down an entire province, separating sick family members from healthy, and building at least a half-dozen pop-up hospitals. But then, that's China.
*Except #WEARAMASK in public. That is truly appropriate no matter what kind of society.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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I think it's hilarious how many commercials I heard on the radio today while working outside in the garage telling people to wash their hands.
As if that's only something they should be doing when the government is lying to them about a fake deadly disease.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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So, thinking back KIKI to what you posted about California's slow but steady increase in cases ... I think you can infer the mode of transmission from the shape of the curve.
So, what mode of transmission produces this slow, steady rise? I think we can rule out any specific mass-gathering/event because that would produce sudden spikes in the case #s. Close contact spread would lead to a higher curve, as would crowded housing (because then it would spread to 3,4 or more people all at once). And given that so much is locked down we can rule out schools, gyms etc.
It probably is person-to-person in "essential" public spaces... grocery stores, home improvement stores etc.
Well, it's only been two weeks since the people in my local stores have gotten to near-100% on mask-wearing, so if it's "essential" public spaces, for example, we should see the effects soon (once we get past the Mardi Gras bump?)
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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I've been reading about this - how atypical COVID-19 pneumonia is.
A little background: except with certain very particular diseases, like advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, people get a sense of needing to breathe MORE!!! NOW!!! (suffocation) not because they're running low on blood oxygen, but because the carbon dioxide they'd normally exhale is building up in their blood. And pneumonia interferes with gas exchange in the lungs, because the tiny delicate sacs called alveoli where gases are normally exchanged between air and blood are instead filled with pus or fluid. Oxygen needs to go into the blood, and carbon dioxide needs to go out.
Normal blood oxygen is 94-99(100)% of all the oxygen the blood can hold. In COVID-19 pneumonia, people can have a little as 50% the normal blood oxygen without feeling distress. (BTW, in my hospital work, there were plenty of people dying at 70-80% blood oxygen during a code, and if it was lower than 65% we assumed it was an accidental draw from a vein instead of an artery. So when this doctor writes about how shockingly low their blood oxygen levels were, I can understand a bit of how he feels).
Somehow, oxygen isn't getting in due to pneumonia, but carbon dioxide is getting out.
How is this disconnect happening?
Quote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumon
ia.html
We are only just beginning to understand why this is so. The coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant. This substance helps keep the air sacs in the lungs stay open between breaths and is critical to normal lung function. As the inflammation from Covid pneumonia starts, it causes the air sacs to collapse, and oxygen levels fall. Yet the lungs initially remain “compliant,” not yet stiff or heavy with fluid. This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath.
Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it. This silent hypoxia, and the patient’s physiological response to it, causes even more inflammation and more air sacs to collapse, and the pneumonia worsens until their oxygen levels plummet. In effect, the patient is injuring their own lungs by breathing harder and harder. Twenty percent of Covid pneumonia patients then go on to a second and deadlier phase of lung injury. Fluid builds up and the lungs become stiff, carbon dioxide rises, and patients develop acute respiratory failure.
By the time patients have noticeable trouble breathing and present to the hospital with dangerously low oxygen levels, many will ultimately require a ventilator.
Silent hypoxia progressing rapidly to respiratory failure explains cases of Covid-19 patients dying suddenly after not feeling short of breath. (It appears that most Covid-19 patients experience relatively mild symptoms and get over the illness in a week or two without treatment.)
A major reason this pandemic is straining our health system is the alarming severity of lung injury patients have when they arrive in emergency rooms. Covid-19 overwhelmingly kills through the lungs. And because so many patients are not going to the hospital until their pneumonia is already well advanced, many wind up on ventilators, causing shortages of the machines. And once on ventilators, many die.
This explains to me the many people who were improving, in the hospital or at home, who then suddenly died. And it explains the many patients who die at home because they weren't ever doing too badly.
I think there should be a protocol for EMS that requires hospital transport for evaluation when a person's oxygen saturation is below 90% (optimal) or 87% (practical). Because by then, the person has serious pneumonia.
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I have read in various places - but can't recall where at the moment- that if you treat with oxygen very early in the disease you will reduce mortality by quite a bit... 50% or more. That may be one of the reasons why fatalities seem to escalate beyond the number of infections when the crisis becomes acute. Because as medical systems are overcome, they resort to keeping people at home with no treatment, and that more people then progress to severe/fatal illness when they might have recovered with less radical treatment earlier.
As the weeks go on doctors are learning more and more how to treat covid-19.
The one thing I'm very resistant to is that Fauci, Bill Gates et al seem to be bent on keeping everyone hostage, prolonging the crisis until we get a vaccine ... THEIR vaccine... by which they will make a lot of money
That's one of the reasons why I don't understand what people like SIX have against mask-wearing, even mandatory mask-wearing. It's the one preventative action that everyone can take that isn't going to get any corporation or bank rich, and doesn't cede a whole lot of control to the government.
You'd have to be a bonehead not to get that point.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Interesting. Don't spend a lot of time on that, but if you could find it I'd be interested.
I read something related. It was that common practice was to automatically intubate patients with low oxygen saturations (O-sats), but that intubation might be causing its own set of pathologies. So it recommended pronation, O2 by nasal cannula, and CPAP or BIPAP first, in that order.
Maybe there should be special treatment hospitals/ wings/ floors for people with COVID-19 whose only symptom is low O-sats (and fever plus other non-life-threatening symptoms). You do want to continuously monitor them in case they progress to ARDS, and in a place where they could be quickly transported to an intensive-care setting, so you'd want them to be in a hospital. But it seems you could avoid a lot of mortality with early at home screening, and widespread, low-invasive, O2 treatment and monitoring.
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As for masks - no kidding.
Just fyi - as you know, I've been harping about testing for quite a while (and after all this time, in the 'greatest' country on the planet, we still don't have enough). But I've also been recommending masks and hand sanitizers since page 1 of this thread.
So Signy and I have been posting the same things for a long time.
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99% or more don't need hand sanitizers or masks.
They need one of two things... preferably both.
1. Don't be old.
2. If you can't help that... healthy eating habits, vitamins, regular exercise and just a general healthy lifestyle will do.
But, I mean, it's too late if you're already old and you treated your body like shit your entire life. Then you better wear a mask and wash your hands like you've got the world's worst case of OCD.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Yanno, if only 1% are going to die of COVID-19 in this country, that's 3.5M deaths.
You either need to check your math or you need to check your brain, because something isn't right with your post.
I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep up with facts about SARS-COV-2, and driving JACK over the edge with too much reality.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Yanno, if only 1% are going to die of COVID-19 in this country, that's 3.5M deaths.
You either need to check your math or you need to check your brain, because something isn't right with your post.
I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep up with facts about SARS-COV-2, and driving JACK over the edge with too much reality.
Hence the "or more"... very likely or more.
I'm perfectly alright with 3.5 million deaths, but there won't be that many.
NYC is near 100% infection rate.
I'm a patient man. I've been waiting years to rub Trump's upcoming win in Ted and Second's face.
Going to be fun rubbing this one in yours too. Maybe even more because you've dethroned Wishy as king bitch of the RWED, Karen.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Well, WISHY was willing to flush all but 100 in support of her agenda, and you're willing to flush 3.5M+ in support of yours. I think that puts you number 2 on the Hitler scale.
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But I have a question for you. Is your goal environmental, to, yanno, reduce the number of people on the planet?
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Apaprently there are a number of serological tests being run by various research institutions to look at the infection rate of SARS Cov-2.
One, in Santa Clara, purported to show that the infection rate was 50-80X higher than previously confirmed. However, I heard some interesting criticisms of that test that I wouldn't have known about if I had taken the results at face value.
The first is that the sample population was NOT random. The authors recruited people on FB by offering a Covid-19 test, so the sample could have been enriched by people who felt that they had had symptoms and/or were exposed and were looking to get tested by the only means available to them. And, since they were recruiting on FB, I'll bet you dollars to donuts some people on FB recruited their equally worried FB friends. Statistically, only 50 people in 3,300 with specific concerns would have been enough to kink the study results.
The second comment is that the (Chinese) particular test kit that they used had real-world issues with false positives.
The third criticism is that one of the lead authors has a financial interest in the test kit so there's a built-in conflict of interest.
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/20/california
-antibody-studies-suggest-higher-infection-rates-but-experts-warn-data-could-be-flawed-1278211
But other studies are in the works ... the latest from USC which shows that approximately 4% of the LA population had Covid-19 at one point. Unlike the Stanford study, the population was really random. But they used the same point-of-care test kits as the first study, which are plagued by high false positives.
https://news.yahoo.com/early-study-points-far-more-072149550.html
In any case, I think it's safe to assume that California is in the realm of about 1-6% infected, depending on where you are, which puts us in the very early stages of the pandemic. That means that there are potentially ~15 - 80X more deaths still waiting in the wings.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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And now a word from the other side ...
Quote:You can have a large portion of "the vulnerable" die and thus "flatten the curve" but ONLY IF you have a massive die off first, and THEN have the daily deaths diminish. OTOH, neither Finland nor Norway have had a die-off, and yet they've managed to "flatten the curve" without killing off their most vulnerable, so his statement is clearly false on its face.
Sweden Vs COVID-19: Why "Herd Immunity" Matters & Why Lockdown Doesn't Really Work
Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:
UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
The paper was very much too pessimistic
Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
Quote:When is that? Two years from now?
The results will eventually be similar for all countries
Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
In any case, testing serological testing in CA is demonstrating relatively low infection rates (Probaby less than 5%). It would be interesting to see what the infection rates are in such clusterfucked areas as northern Italy and NYC, but they're so up to their asses in alligators I don't know if they have time to test.
That would be where coordination would help, since lesser-impacted states could volunteer to help with the sampling and analysis.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Thanks for looking up the problems w/ the Stanford study. I don't know how long it took you to dig that out, but it's extremely relevant. I appreciate it.
I did also read about the USC study here: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serolo
gy-testing-la-county
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Though I wish tptb would give serious consideration to what really works, short of fantasizing that antibodies will be manna from heaven, thinking that ppl will need an 'antibody passport' registered with the government to do anything in public, or that we'll just have to endure and wait to line up whenever $vaccine$ becomes available, or some other fascistic fantasy. There are better ways to deal with this. Yanno, look at SK, with an extremely low infection rate, and a nearly flat (log) curve, that didn't do any of that nonsense, and still has its economy running.
The solution is abundantly clear.
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What is abundantly clear?
Are you comparing SK to the US?
By what metric? Everything from our cultures to our infrastructure couldn't be more different. And the variations of population densities across our country couldn't be more wild... something that SK really doesn't have.
Even with their "limited" response to the Coomph, they sound pretty worried about the effects of them. They seem a lot more honest about the reprocussions from what little comparative actions they have taken than any of our media is.
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200421005300320
Quote:
SEJONG, April 21 (Yonhap) -- The coronavirus pandemic could have a negative impact on births and marriages this year and is feared to accelerate population decline in South Korea, a senior finance ministry official said Tuesday.
Vice Finance Minister Kim Yong-beom said in a meeting on the nation's population policy that the coronavirus outbreak has reshaped people's everyday lives, prompting people to work from home and students to take online classes.
"There are worries that shocks from COVID-19 could have a negative impact on births and marriages and accelerate a decline in birthrates this year," Kim said.
Kim urged officials to take a "new approach" on population policy in the wake of the pandemic.
South Korea's total fertility rate hit an all-time low in 2019, a clear sign of its population decline down the road.
The country's total fertility rate, which refers to the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime, came to 0.92 last year, down from 0.98 a year earlier, according to the data from Statistics Korea.
Last year marked the second consecutive year for the rate to fall below 1. South Korea was the only member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that had a total fertility rate below 1.
As for people here? It's been 5 or 6 weeks now for most of us, which for many of us is all the time it takes to develop new habits. Good or bad.
People aren't just going to bounce back from this. Some will. Most won't. People are going to be changed, and more people will be changed the longer this goes on. But at least they'll be washing their hands, because I guess until late March of 2020 that wasn't a thing that a lot of people did.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:If you take the USC and Stanford studies at their word (since they both came up with reasonably similar percentages), you could extrapolate that 0.04 fraction of the state of California was infected. Multiplying that by the state of 40M population gives 1,600,000 infected. There were roughly 1250 deaths in California so the fraction of deaths of those infected is 0.0008.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
But other studies are in the works ... the latest from USC which shows that approximately 4% of the LA population had Covid-19 at one point.
If you take the number of deaths in NYC (roughly 10,000) and divide by the death/infected fraction, you get 12,800,000 infected. But that's impossible, since there are only about 8M people in NYC.
The tests are bogus.
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Here’s a Lifesaving COVID-19 Test That Costs Almost Nothing
Well, almost nothing after you buy the $40 pulse/oxygen meter from Walgreens. It is next to blood pressure monitors and blood glucose monitors.
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/heres-a-lifesaving-covid-19-tes
t-that-costs-almost-nothing/
The New York Times ran a fascinating op-ed on Monday, and I’m surprised that it hasn’t gotten more attention. Here’s the nickel summary: a hotshot ER doctor volunteered to spend time at Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan and discovered something odd. Practically everyone he saw had pneumonia caused by COVID-19:
Even patients without respiratory complaints had Covid pneumonia. The patient stabbed in the shoulder, whom we X-rayed because we worried he had a collapsed lung, actually had Covid pneumonia. In patients on whom we did CT scans because they were injured in falls, we coincidentally found Covid pneumonia. Elderly patients who had passed out for unknown reasons and a number of diabetic patients were found to have it.
And here is what really surprised us: These patients did not report any sensation of breathing problems, even though their chest X-rays showed diffuse pneumonia and their oxygen was below normal. How could this be?
www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html
You can—and should!—click the link to read the details, but the short answer turns out to be that COVID-19 attacks the lungs in an unusual way: it causes the air sacs to collapse and oxygen levels to fall, but the lungs still expel carbon dioxide normally. Since it’s carbon dioxide buildup that causes you to feel short of breath, patients had never even noticed anything was wrong:
A vast majority of Covid pneumonia patients I met had remarkably low oxygen saturations at triage — seemingly incompatible with life — but they were using their cellphones as we put them on monitors….Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it….By the time patients have noticeable trouble breathing and present to the hospital with dangerously low oxygen levels, many will ultimately require a ventilator.
As you know, about 80 percent of people with COVID-19 have either mild symptoms or no symptoms. But the other 20 percent develop pneumonia and many end up on ventilators and eventually die. The problem is that they don’t feel anything for the first week, and by the time they do it’s too late. So how can we catch these cases earlier? With this:
This is a pulse oximeter, and it measures the level of oxygenation in your blood. You probably get a quick oxygenation test every time you see a doctor. So the answer is: test your blood oxygenation every day. If it falls below normal levels, get to an ER and get tested for COVID-19. Your chances of survival are way higher if you can get to it early.
Yes, I Bought a Pulse Oximeter Today
by Kevin Drum
Just to follow up on this morning’s post, I did indeed go out to Walgreens and buy a pulse oximeter today.
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/yes-i-bought-a-pulse-oximeter-t
oday/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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KIKI already posted this but thanks for the repeat.
If people truly are damaging their own lungs in an effort to get more O2, then one super easy way to prevent damage is to simply give people O2 early on, and to test for Osats at home. Both in-home tests and therapies
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What is abundantly clear?
Are you comparing SK to the US?
By what metric? Everything from our cultures to our infrastructure couldn't be more different. And the variations of population densities across our country couldn't be more wild... something that SK really doesn't have.
Even with their "limited" response to the Coomph, they sound pretty worried about the effects of them. They seem a lot more honest about the reprocussions from what little comparative actions they have taken than any of our media is.
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200421005300320Quote:
SEJONG, April 21 (Yonhap) -- The coronavirus pandemic could have a negative impact on births and marriages this year and is feared to accelerate population decline in South Korea, a senior finance ministry official said Tuesday.
Vice Finance Minister Kim Yong-beom said in a meeting on the nation's population policy that the coronavirus outbreak has reshaped people's everyday lives, prompting people to work from home and students to take online classes.
"There are worries that shocks from COVID-19 could have a negative impact on births and marriages and accelerate a decline in birthrates this year," Kim said.
Kim urged officials to take a "new approach" on population policy in the wake of the pandemic.
South Korea's total fertility rate hit an all-time low in 2019, a clear sign of its population decline down the road.
The country's total fertility rate, which refers to the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime, came to 0.92 last year, down from 0.98 a year earlier, according to the data from Statistics Korea.
Last year marked the second consecutive year for the rate to fall below 1. South Korea was the only member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that had a total fertility rate below 1.
As for people here? It's been 5 or 6 weeks now for most of us, which for many of us is all the time it takes to develop new habits. Good or bad.
People aren't just going to bounce back from this. Some will. Most won't. People are going to be changed, and more people will be changed the longer this goes on. But at least they'll be washing their hands, because I guess until late March of 2020 that wasn't a thing that a lot of people did.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Ignoring facts outside of your one track mind again, I see.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Signy, looking at DIVOC the California 'cases' curve started to heel over ~March 31, 2020. The event previous to that was "===> CA stay at home March 19, 2020 (PM)", so it looks like stay at home most closely associates with bending the curve.
Then there's another bend around April 10, 2020. The event previous to that was "===> April 03, 2020 LACounty asks all people wear masks outside the home.".
LACounty has an extremely inconsistent up/down pattern that I think might be due to backlogged laboratories (and it's been well reported how delayed results are) submitting positive results in batches. Just the other day, there was an extra large backlogged batch of ~1,100 confirmed cases submitted in one day. That spike and the reason for it even made the news.
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This is an exceptionally data-comprehensive article in the NYTimes, which you can access for free as long as you're not in incognito mode.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-death-ra
tes.html
You can look at California https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/california-coronavirus-cas
es.html to see how we're doing, by going to the bottom of the page. Links to (among other things) individual states are found there.
Unfortunately, when it comes to California data, the dump of ~1,100 backlogged new positive LACounty cases by a laboratory in one day (April 20, 220) makes hash of any time sequence you might want to formally derive.
But if you except that artificial spike, it looks like stay-at-home had the clearest effect 2 weeks out at significantly cutting new California cases from an upslope curve to a downslope curve.
CA stay at home March 19, 2020 (PM)
April 03, 2020 The CDC recommends all people wear masks outside the home.
April 03, 2020 LACounty asks all people wear masks outside the home.
April 07, 2020 The City of Los Angeles requires all people wear masks outside the home.
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How many people in NYC have been infected with SARS-COV-2?
150% as some data indicates?
100% as JACK claims?
The answer so far is closer to 20%
Quote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-tes
t-ny.html
1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest
But rather than using antibodies in the decision to relax anti-SARS-COV-2 measures, Cuomo is basing his recommendation on numbers of people being hospitalized, about 1,350 patients per day. That number indicates there's still dangerous levels of infection.
Quote:
The state’s plan would involve tracking infections as restrictions are loosened on gatherings and businesses. Antibody testing would be used, Mr. Cuomo said, for identifying coronavirus survivors who can donate convalescent plasma — the part of the blood that contains antibodies — for a treatment that is being tested on patients with the virus at the Mount Sinai Health System in New York, and elsewhere.
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And now for what could be worse news:
Quote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-release
d-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/
New data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for coronavirus patients. Company still sees reason for hope
Quote:However, as I previously posted, that could be because the drug was given AFTER cytokine storm became the primary pathology.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slide-report-gilead-miracle-d
rug-remdesivir-flopped-during-first-clinical-trial
Stocks Dump, Gilead Crashes After FT Reports Gilead's Remdesivir "Flops" In First Clinical Trial
Update (1350ET): How did the FT and Statnews get their hands on the remdesivir study? They were simply perusing the WHO website at the right time and just happened to stumble upon.
Giving it earlier might still work.
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SEROLOGY TESTING FOR SARS-COV2 IN NYC AND ACROSS NYS
Quote:
...The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it, Cuomo said.
With more than 19.4 million people residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.
The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. In Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester, where the state's first major outbreak originated, 11.7% of the tests were positive. The Covid-19 pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results.
....The testing results also may be artificially high because "these are people who were out and about shopping," Cuomo added. "They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn't come out of the house."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13po
int9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html
Yep. Biased sampling, Always a confounding factor,
Also, I don't know what test kit they used, but I'm sure Chris Martenson will have something to say about that.
For those of you unfamiliar with testing, one of the continuing problems with these point-of-care (fingerstick) tests is that they suffer from high false positives (as high as 5%) because they will also react to other coronaviruses. So you could, in theory, test 100 people who have never been exposed to SARS-CoV2 and get five positive results.
Therefore, when testing people with a low exposure rate, the results are somewhat iffy, as they could be attributed to false positives/chance. However, at the roughly 21% exposure rate in NYC the results become more robust, and chance has less of an impact.
So we should expect to see roughly 4X more deaths until herd immunity is reached at about 85%, or slighlty less than 5X more deaths until everyone has been exposed and infected. That would mean about 60,000 - 75,000 in NYC. ASSUMING ANTIBODIES CONFER ROBUST, LONG-LASTING IMMUNITY, which could be a mirage.
Also, since everyone wants to know "what does this mean FOR ME?" since 21% of 8.7 million people (NYC) have been infected and about 15,000 have died this is a case fatality rate of about 0.8%. However, since people are STILL dying of infections thta got weeks ago (there is a lag between infections and death of AT LEAST 2 weeks)
the possibility is that the case fatality rate will be somewhat higher ... maybe more in the realm of 1%. Also, this will vary from region to region depending on how old, fat, and sick the population is as well as quality of care, but doesn't bode well for the rural south where people are fatter and sicker than in most other parts of the nation. By contrast, Colorado should do better, since people there are leaner, healthier, and younger, with higher quality of care.-----------
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Quote:If I were to characterize this study, I'd call it a survey. Sometimes before you do an actual study you go out there and poke around to get an idea of how much is there, how well does your method/ equipment/ logistics work.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
SEROLOGY TESTING FOR SARS-COV2 IN NYC AND ACROSS NYS
....The testing results also may be artificially high because "these are people who were out and about shopping," Cuomo added. "They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn't come out of the house."
Yep. Biased sampling, Always a confounding factor.
Quote:One developed by NYS apparently, just like they developed their own PCR test for the SARS-COV-2 virus.
Also, I don't know what test kit they used, but I'm sure Chris Martenson will have something to say about that.
Quote:The state believes this test is accurate enough to be usable. But they're limiting any intended application so far to identifying people who might be able to donate plasma. They're not looking to base any policy decisions on that.
For those of you unfamiliar with testing, one of the continuing problems with these point-of-care (fingerstick) tests is that they suffer from high false positives (as high as 5%) because they will also react to other coronaviruses. So you could, in theory, test 100 people who have never been exposed to SARS-CoV2 and get five positive results.
Therefore, when testing people with a low exposure rate, the results are somewhat iffy, as they could be attributed to false positives/chance. However, at the roughly 21% exposure rate in NYC the results become more robust, and chance has less of an impact.
As I read elsewhere, Cuomo is basing lifting restrictions on numbers of hospital admissions for COVID-19, which are currently still deemed to be too high for any change in policy.
Quote:
So we should expect to see roughly 4X more deaths until herd immunity is reached at about 85%, or slightly less than 5X more deaths until everyone has been exposed and infected. That would mean about 60,000 - 75,000 in NYC. ASSUMING ANTIBODIES CONFER ROBUST, LONG-LASTING IMMUNITY, which could be a mirage.
Also, since everyone wants to know "what does this mean FOR ME?" since 21% of 8.7 million people (NYC) have been infected and about 15,000 have died this is a case fatality rate of about 0.8%. However, since people are STILL dying of infections that they got weeks ago (there is a lag between infections and death of AT LEAST 2 weeks)
Quote:There's a reason why I believe that after a majority in a referendum states should be able to throw their doors wide open, but only with the caveat that they can't then later tap into federal monies for help with COVID-19.
the possibility is that the case fatality rate will be somewhat higher ... maybe more in the realm of 1%. Also, this will vary from region to region depending on how old, fat, and sick the population is as well as quality of care, but doesn't bode well for the rural south where people are fatter and sicker than in most other parts of the nation. By contrast, Colorado should do better, since people there are leaner, healthier, and younger, with higher quality of care.
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If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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KIKI- thanks for the clarifications!
Seeing in the other thread about remdesivir, and having heard very similar things about hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) ... didn't work, but maybe if given earlier and with zinc ...
Plus the fact that people are STILL popping up with SARS-CoV2 months after having tested "negative" still puts a question mark after the concept of vaccine ...
leaves us with
masks
handwashing
social isolation
test and contact trace
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lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:One of the problems with chloroquine (related to HCQ) is that it causes significant - and sometimes fatal - heart arrhythmias. Both these drugs have been used for a long time to treat other conditions besides malaria, such as lupus, As such, their side effects are well known. After a debate about the relative safety of both drugs, a small study in Brazil was launched to test chloroquine, as it was deemed the safer drug. The study was halted after only 10 days due to a large number of deaths (~17% of patients) on the higher dose. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056424v2
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
... having heard very similar things about hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) ...
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If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
MASKS
HANDWASHING
Are you dense, or something??
It's working in Czechia (Czech Republic), why not here?
GO to 91-divoc and look at deaths per million.
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If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.
I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?
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Today, Trump took to the podium and made a deeply bizarre inference.
“Supposing we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light ... and then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re gonna test that,” Trump said, addressing Bryan. “And then I see disinfectant, where it knocks it [coronavirus] out in a minute — one minute — and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning. Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that. So, that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me.” https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253448500676898818
He then attacked Washington Post reporter Philip Rucker after Rucker advised him, “People tuning into these briefings — they want to get information and guidance and want to know what to do. They’re not looking for rumors.”
“I’m the president and you’re fake news,” Trump said.
www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21233628/trump-disinfectant-injections-sunlight-
coronavirus-briefing
The first reporter that yells out: "What the fuck are you talking about?" should automatically receive a Pulitzer Prize.
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COVID-19: NOT "THE FLU"
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.
I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?
Yeah. I actually do. I loved my job.
It's not just about work.
If you don't get it now, you will.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
COVID-19: NOT "THE FLU"
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If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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Do you think that people who haven't seen a graph before will just suddenly "get it" and that's the only reason they didn't before?
....
Hey. Maybe you're right. Maybe all you need is a graph. Here's a graph for you.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Yep, SIX making shit up again. Because he's all about "facts".
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Hey JACK - if your graph doesn't come true, will you admit you were wrong?
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I'm not going to adhere to those specific weeks. That graph took me 30 seconds to make with my limited graphic arts skills and a parabola tool.
I also couldn't be arsed to give it any more time than that because it was already more effort than this Coomph panic deserves.
I'm not wrong though. That's how these things always have worked out in the past. The Coomph will always be with us. And it will always be something that kills a few tens of thousands of old folks every year for as long as there are still old weak folks to kill off.
Boo hoo. Maybe people shouldn't eat so much McDonalds if they're going to cry about it when it's too late to do anything about it.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Of course not. That's because you just blithely ignore reality.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm not going to adhere to those specific weeks.
Quote:Well, if you're saying that the # of deaths per day will eventually go down as vulnerable people die off... you're right! But it won't happen as you show because there are still lots and lots and lots more (about 20X more) people across the USA to be infected, so my guess is that if we follow your "advice" and don't try to slow transmisison down the number of deaths per day would peak out 10X higher than it is now. So yeah... imagine that chart ten times taller, and the #of deaths per day at 15,000, not 2,000.
SIX: I'm not wrong though.
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JACK, you have no idea what reality is. And that's why you can't stand behind ANY of your posts, including the phony made-up graph you posted. As soon as real data trashes your blather, you drop it like a hot potato and go on to other equally stupid blather.
Whatever.
I already spent more time replying than it's worth.
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Now this is an interesting conundrum in England very similar to the US political dynamic.
Recent reports were that BoJo (:Trump) missed 5 emergency meetings about COVID-19, while it became a runaway train. Apparently, that's a 'sackable' offense. But as incompetent as BoJo was, the alternative Labor (:democratic) party seems to be even more odious. And they just can't gain any political traction from BoJo's (:Trump's) COVID-19 awfulness.
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The problem with preventing epidemics is that if you do everything right ... nothing happens.
That tends to lead to the question "What WOULD have happened if we had done nothing"?
That's why I look at primarily Sweden and Norway, two nations that are culturally, economically, socially, as alike as possible, with the exception that Sweden has decided not to impose mandated social distancing while Norway has.
So, just checkin in with these nations on 91-divoc, I see that Sweden has surpassed a whole number of nations in deaths/MM, and is closing in on the Netherlands, which was one of the EU nations noted with a relatively high death rate - not quite as bad as Italy and Spain, but almost. So Sweden has jumped up to 187 deaths/MM and is still climbing rather smartly. It still has that peculiar "stairstep" pattern to the data.
Norway OTOH is at about 35 deaths/MM. Altho other nations have managed to control their outbreaks more successfully (Albania, Lithuania, Greece etc) Norways's curve is a lot flatter than Sweden's.
Just as a point of curiosity, Czechia has been pointed out quite often as the nation which requires wearing masks in public. Their current death rate is 19.5/MM.
However, masks weren't their only response. They were one of the first to close their borders to China (Jan 30), Italy, S Korea, and Iran (Mar 2-7), and eventually to all nations (Apr 6), one of the first to ban gatherings (Mar 23) and close schools (mar 10), and require face masks (march 18). Since then, they have eased a lot of rstrictions.
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If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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FWIW I also went to DIVOC and looked through major countries with significant outbreaks, new deaths/ day/ 1M linear graph. (When I refer to significant outbreaks, that leaves SK, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Norway and so on out of the picture, since they started their responses early and have kept cases and deaths down to a manageable, minimal level.)
I wanted to see which countries had turned the corner on new deaths/ day/ 1M. Only Spain and Italy are on a very slow decent, kind of like a slowly sagging plateau. All other major countries are still on a upswing or have plateaued. (A few more days might reveal a new pattern, but not as of today.)
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Quote:SK which doesn't mandate but has strong social pressure to wear a mask in public doesn't even register a death rate/ 1M
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Just as a point of curiosity, Czechia has been pointed out quite often as the nation which requires wearing masks in public. Their current death rate is 19.5/MM.
However, masks weren't their only response. They were one of the first to close their borders to China (Jan 30), Italy, S Korea, and Iran (Mar 2-7), and eventually to all nations (Apr 6), one of the first to ban gatherings (Mar 23) and close schools (mar 10), and require face masks (march 18). Since then, they have eased a lot of restrictions.
-----------
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If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
The problem with preventing epidemics is that if you do everything right ... nothing happens.
That tends to lead to the question "What WOULD have happened if we had done nothing"?
That's why I look at primarily Sweden and Norway, two nations that are culturally, economically, socially, as alike as possible, with the exception that Sweden has decided not to impose mandated social distancing while Norway has.
So, just checkin in with these nations on 91-divoc, I see that Sweden has surpassed a whole number of nations in deaths/MM, and is closing in on the Netherlands, which was one of the EU nations noted with a relatively high death rate - not quite as bad as Italy and Spain, but almost. So Sweden has jumped up to 187 deaths/MM and is still climbing rather smartly. It still has that peculiar "stairstep" pattern to the data.
Norway OTOH is at about 35 deaths/MM. Altho other nations have managed to control their outbreaks more successfully (Albania, Lithuania, Greece etc) Norways's curve is a lot flatter than Sweden's.
Just as a point of curiosity, Czechia has been pointed out quite often as the nation which requires wearing masks in public. Their current death rate is 19.5/MM.
However, masks weren't their only response. They were one of the first to close their borders to China (Jan 30), Italy, S Korea, and Iran (Mar 2-7), and eventually to all nations (Apr 6), one of the first to ban gatherings (Mar 23) and close schools (mar 10), and require face masks (march 18). Since then, they have eased a lot of rstrictions.
-----------
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If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
You're still talking almost nothing in Sweeden. 2,021 deaths out of a population 10,230,000. I guaranty you that most of those are old and ill people.
And just like you can't prove that preventative measures did anything, you also can't prove that they didn't do anything either.
At some point you just have to look at the numbers as a whole and realize that this is not nearly as deadly as the panic mongers were saying that it would be and start looking at what we're doing to everybody else's lives and potentially their livelihood going forward in response to it and asking yourself if it's worth it.
We haven't even begun to really feel the effects of it yet. We'll know more about it when we see how many people who used to be employed don't have a job to go back to when things start opening up again.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:Of course not. That's because you just blithely ignore reality.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm not going to adhere to those specific weeks.Quote:Well, if you're saying that the # of deaths per day will eventually go down as vulnerable people die off... you're right! But it won't happen as you show because there are still lots and lots and lots more (about 20X more) people across the USA to be infected, so my guess is that if we follow your "advice" and don't try to slow transmisison down the number of deaths per day would peak out 10X higher than it is now. So yeah... imagine that chart ten times taller, and the #of deaths per day at 15,000, not 2,000.
SIX: I'm not wrong though.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
No. You don't know that.
Models showing that 50 to 80 times as many people are infected than we know about (and I'm not providing a link for that since YOU AND KIKI posted those already, and you know exactly what I'm talking about) show a much higher number of those infected.
Current Known Cases in America: 869,172
x50 = 43,458,600
x80 = 69,533,760
People living in America: 328,200,000
x50: 328,200,000 / 43,458,000 = 7.5 times
x80: 328,200,000 / 69,533,760 = 4.7 times
(Neither of these are close to x20)
Current Deaths (supposedly) by Coomph in US: 49,963
x50: 49,963 x 7.5 = 374,723 (.115% of all Americans)
x80: 49,963 x 4.7 = 234,826 (.072% of all Americans)
I did imagine the chart taller. Not 10 times, but I'm under no illusion this number won't grow for a while. But eventually there is no one left to infect, and if there isn't any real evidence that re-infection will occur AND is still dangerous the 2nd time than what I'm saying holds true.
Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.
But at the end of the day, it's going to be an extremely small portion of the population. This isn't even throwing old people under the bus since most old people who get it aren't even going to die from it.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.
I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?
Yeah. I actually do. I loved my job.
It's not just about work.
If you don't get it now, you will.
How'd you lose it?
Do you think that's true of most of these yahoos out "protesting?" Total BS if you think so.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.
Everyone dies eventually, so let's just stop Health Care in general - we'd save tons of money. Less traffic, no waiting in long lines, front row seating, nothing but upside. And by all means, let's let politicians decide on who to treat and when. TSSYP
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.
I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?
Yeah. I actually do. I loved my job.
It's not just about work.
If you don't get it now, you will.
How'd you lose it?
Do you think that's true of most of these yahoos out "protesting?" Total BS if you think so.
How do you know half of my story but don't know all of it?
After corporate restructuring and replacement of the store manager and some middle management, I got laid off. My shift was deleted. Third time in my life I've been laid off now. First time it was at a low paying job. Sure, the money sucked, but once they got to know my work ethic I was able to pick my own schedule and got an amazing workout every night since I volunteered to do the area that was the most physical work. They also let me work 10 hours per night instead of the 7.5 hours we got on our normal shifts because they were happy to have me around as long as I wanted to. And none of my "peers" even bitched about my special privileges because they were just as happy to see me on nights I worked as the management was because it meant they had an easy night.
Pay could have been better. But I don't need much money and some things are more important than cash when you're not a wage slave.
But I'm wondering what your point is here...
Are you suggesting that people who aren't working now because they hate their jobs are better off for it?
Because I guaranty you that when the "free" government money stops and the economy opens back up and millions who used to have jobs don't have one to go back to that will not be the case.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.
Everyone dies eventually, so let's just stop Health Care in general - we'd save tons of money. Less traffic, no waiting in long lines, front row seating, nothing but upside. And by all means, let's let politicians decide on who to treat and when. TSSYP
I didn't say anything about health care, dummy.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
At some point you just have to look at the numbers as a whole and realize that this is not nearly as deadly as the panic mongers were saying that it would be and start looking at what we're doing to everybody else's lives and potentially their livelihood going forward in response to it and asking yourself if it's worth it.
That's because people stayed home, doofus. Can't contract it if you stay away from those that have it, gdamn. You still don't get how a virus works.
The problem is how to reintegrate everyone without making it worse. Too many people too fast and we go back to overwhelming HC providers and that's a DEF Con 5 situation - absolutely can't keep pushing those people.
Georgia? Trump pushed the Gov and he took the bait. He's out on a limb all by himself. Well, with his entire state. They're the test subject. We'll see. Would they even post the real numbers if they were bad? Or would Trump fire people until he finds one who will say "it worked!"
TREATMENT is key. Vaccine is way too far out to be effective in bringing back any semblance of normal or a stable economy.
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
At some point you just have to look at the numbers as a whole and realize that this is not nearly as deadly as the panic mongers were saying that it would be and start looking at what we're doing to everybody else's lives and potentially their livelihood going forward in response to it and asking yourself if it's worth it.
That's because people stayed home, doofus. Can't contract it if you stay away from those that have it, gdamn. You still don't get how a virus works.
The problem is how to reintegrate everyone without making it worse. Too many people too fast and we go back to overwhelming HC providers and that's a DEF Con 5 situation - absolutely can't keep pushing those people.
Georgia? Trump pushed the Gov and he took the bait. He's out on a limb all by himself. Well, with his entire state. They're the test subject. We'll see. Would they even post the real numbers if they were bad? Or would Trump fire people until he finds one who will say "it worked!"
TREATMENT is key. Vaccine is way too far out to be effective in bringing back any semblance of normal or a stable economy.
No it's not. (In regards to the underlined sentence).
You can look at my math. At 100% infection rate not even 500,000 die here from this, and the number could be quite a bit smaller.
You have to start asking yourself if the life we're going to go back to is worth saving lives of people who didn't have a lot of time left in the first place.
I know a bleeding heart pussy like you can't comprehend that idea and it makes you cry just thinking about it.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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https://reason.com/2020/04/22/shouldnt-covid-19s-lethality-inform-the-
response-to-it/
Quote:
Confirmed cases are limited to people who have tested positive for the virus, and testing so far has been skewed toward people with severe symptoms. Since people infected by the virus typically experience mild to no symptoms, it is not surprising that the official tally understates the number of infections, although the apparent size of the gap is striking.
Since the number of infections in Los Angeles County is much higher than the official numbers indicate, Ferrer told reporters, the risk of transmission is higher than expected, which reinforces the case for aggressive control measures, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders. At the same time, she said, the fact that 95 percent or so of the county's adult population remains uninfected shows those measures are working.
In other words, no matter what the actual prevalence of the virus is, and no matter how you look at it, that information justifies maintaining the statewide lockdown. One wonders what conceivable results from the antibody study might have caused Ferrer to reconsider the wisdom of that policy.
The question is especially pressing in light of the fatality rate implied by the study. In contrast with the current crude case fatality rate of about 4.5 percent, Ferrer said, the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.
That finding is consistent with the results of an earlier antibody study in Santa Clara County. "The mortality rate now has dropped a lot," Ferrer conceded.
Santa Clara Study:
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-th
an-flu-says-new-study/
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How do you know half of my story but don't know all of it?
wtf? Who the fuk cares about your "story???"
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
After corporate restructuring... yawn
But I don't need much money and some things are more important than cash when you're not a wage slave.
Huh - like maybe being alive? Like those old people you want to see die off?
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Are you suggesting that people who aren't working now because they hate their jobs are better off for it?
I'd say ask them but I know you wouldn't get a straight answer. Some yes, some not so much.
I do know that if they want their old jobs and life back, those jobs will only last or be sustainable if the virus is treatable or if people have the confidence to go to their workplace and to shop, that they won't get sick just getting haircut.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Because I guaranty you that when the "free" government money stops and the economy opens back up and millions who used to have jobs don't have one to go back to that will not be the case.
And how would "opening up" help if it just means more people get sick and die and huge part of the population doesn't want to get within 6 feet of anyone?
Oh, right, Jack says they won't.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:That's because people stayed home, doofus. Can't contract it if you stay away from those that have it, gdamn.
No it's not. (In regards to the underlined sentence).
So it's just been a coincidence that once the stay the fuk home was put in place new cases dropped?
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
You can look at my math.
pass
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I know a bleeding heart pussy like you can't comprehend that idea and it makes you cry just thinking about it.
This whole thing has you flipping out, doesn't it? Seriously, since this thing happened you've been a flaming asshole to just about everyone here. Nice one.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.
Everyone dies eventually, so let's just stop Health Care in general - we'd save tons of money. Less traffic, no waiting in long lines, front row seating, nothing but upside. And by all means, let's let politicians decide on who to treat and when. TSSYP
I didn't say anything about health care, dummy.
You sure didn't - just let 'em die.
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How do you know half of my story but don't know all of it?
wtf? Who the fuk cares about your "story???"
You asked me, dumbfuck. Don't ask questions if you don't want to know the answer to them.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
After corporate restructuring... yawn
But I don't need much money and some things are more important than cash when you're not a wage slave.
Quote:
Huh - like maybe being alive? Like those old people you want to see die off?
At this point, I just about have nothing to say to you other than "shut up faggot".
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Are you suggesting that people who aren't working now because they hate their jobs are better off for it?
Quote:
I'd say ask them but I know you wouldn't get a straight answer. Some yes, some not so much.
I do know that if they want their old jobs and life back, those jobs will only last or be sustainable if the virus is treatable or if people have the confidence to go to their workplace and to shop, that they won't get sick just getting haircut.
Nobody but the extremely old and already sick are going to die getting a haircut, pussy.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Because I guaranty you that when the "free" government money stops and the economy opens back up and millions who used to have jobs don't have one to go back to that will not be the case.
Quote:
And how would "opening up" help if it just means more people get sick and die and huge part of the population doesn't want to get within 6 feet of anyone?
Because that's only in your head, retard.
Quote:
Oh, right, Jack says they won't.
I haven't been wrong here yet.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Because Sweden isn't the US. More than half of Sweden's residences house just one person. A quarter of Sweden's workers work from home, a third of them do in Stockholm, and 90% do for the largest companies. It has no large metropolises. Its very largest city, Stockholm, has about 1M people, the same size as San Jose, California. 90% of Swedes say they're socially isolating due to SARS-COV-2.
JACK:
You're still talking almost nothing in Sweden.
With all that going for it, Sweden, with a population of 1M has over 2,100 deaths, and heading sharply up. Norway, with a similar setting to Sweden and a population of 0.5M has 200 deaths, or less than 1/5 of Sweden's on a per capita basis and slowly increasing. And Los Angeles County, with a vastly different culture and 10M inhabitants, has 800 deaths or quite a bit less than half of Sweden, on a per capita basis, on a similar slope with Norway.
Social isolation works.
Now, in case you think I'm in favor of social isolation, I'd like to remind you that I'm all for states opening up without any controls at all ... as long as it passes by majority referendum, and as long as they don't later go to the feds for COVID $help$ because they messed up.
What I would LIKE to see is mandatory mask-wearing in public. It's the fastest, cheapest, simplest, least intrusive measure to take.
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Quote:Your numbers are off.
JACK:
Models showing that 50 to 80 times as many people are infected than we know about (and I'm not providing a link for that since YOU AND KIKI posted those already, and you know exactly what I'm talking about) show a much higher number of those infected.
I've already disproved the 4% figure for anywhere but Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties (where the 4% numbers were generated) because when applied to California as a whole, and using that factor to apply to NYC, they give an infection rate of 150%. Even taking 2 random counties in California and applying that figure across the state gives a bogus factor. Applying the LACounty 4% infection rate to LACounty alone, them back-calculating to NYC gives an infection rate of 50%, which is better than 150%, but over twice the current measurement of 20%.
OBVIOUSLY you can't take a percent from one population and apply it to another, because you know those populations differ in terms of exposure. Nome Alaska is not Long Beach, California.
Your assumptions are invalid.
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Anyway, I was hoping to look at Los Angeles County to see what affects different measures might have on infections rate. But the data looks erratic - provably so when one laboratory submitted 1,100 backlogged positive results in a single transaction. I might have to wait for data to smooth out over longer time periods, or the information might not be recoverable at all.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I haven't been wrong here yet.
Really? Remember how just last week you didn't know what RT/retweets were, and thought they were some kind of conspiracy?
Remember 6StringJack: "When we get Mitt into the President's Chair (which is an inevatibility now), I will vote for Dems in the congress in 2014."
Remember 6ixstringjack ...predicts seeing a '15% sales taxes and 85% taxes on booze and smokes', and generally we should 'expect to pay more for everything'.
Remember: 6ixstringjack No way Obama gets another term...
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=51008&p=2
The real question is: are you right about anything?
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:Because Sweden isn't the US. More than half of Sweden's residences house just one person. A quarter of Sweden's workers work from home, a third of them do in Stockholm, and 90% do for the largest companies. It has no large metropolises. Its very largest city, Stockholm, has about 1M people, the same size as San Jose, California. 90% of Swedes say they're socially isolating due to SARS-COV-2.
JACK:
You're still talking almost nothing in Sweden.
With all that going for it, Sweden, with a population of 1M has over 2,100 deaths, and heading sharply up. Norway, with a similar setting to Sweden and a population of 0.5M has 200 deaths, or less than 1/5 of Sweden's on a per capita basis and slowly increasing. And Los Angeles County, with a vastly different culture and 10M inhabitants, has 800 deaths or quite a bit less than half of Sweden, on a per capita basis, on a similar slope with Norway.
Social isolation works.
Now, in case you think I'm in favor of social isolation, I'd like to remind you that I'm all for states opening up without any controls at all ... as long as it passes by majority referendum, and as long as they don't later go to the feds for COVID $help$ because they messed up.
What I would LIKE to see is mandatory mask-wearing in public. It's the fastest, cheapest, simplest, least intrusive measure to take.
I'm all for mask wearing in public, but with soft enforcement - more encouragement than enforcement. Warnings mostly. Some people, including Dumpfuss, are too vain or too immature to wear them in front of others, so just a push could help them get over themselves.
I wouldn't trust any state that screws up with 'too soon and too much' and pays a price, to not try and guilt the Fed Gov for aid after the fact.
Thanks for pointing out how different Sweden is from the US! Some people only see numbers without thinking what's under it all.
BTW 41 grocery store workers have died from c-19.
Hey Jack - at what age can we write someone off as, "they were going to die anyway?" Anyone 70+? 80+? 85? Who gets to make that call?
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South Korea has done really well with a social campaign of mask-wearing (and also, mass testing, contact tracing, MANDATORY police-enforced quarantine of anyone testing positive, and border control; plus the fact that half of SK's cases were highly concentrated in a single Church). But SK has a strong culture of social cooperation. In one of the many links I have is a story about how an old, unmasked man was coughing on a bus, and the frowns directed at him made him so uncomfortable he got off.
Just like the US isn't like Sweden, the US isn't like SK either. OTOH the US isn't like the US as well! Boise, Idaho is nothing like Baltimore, Maryland. Nome, Alaska couldn't be more different from New York, New York. So maybe there needs to be some nuance in response. I can see where places with a lot of naturally inbuilt social isolation could get a lot of mileage out of 'encouraged' mask-wearing. But in other places I can see where that would be appallingly insufficient, given how many people are in contact with each other in the course of a normal day, and how many people are actively opposed to anything other than rugged individualism and opposed to any type of authority.
I also don't think it works without mass testing, contact-tracing, and quarantining.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:Quote:Your numbers are off.
JACK:
Models showing that 50 to 80 times as many people are infected than we know about (and I'm not providing a link for that since YOU AND KIKI posted those already, and you know exactly what I'm talking about) show a much higher number of those infected.
I've already disproved the 4% figure for anywhere but Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties (where the 4% numbers were generated) because when applied to California as a whole, and using that factor to apply to NYC, they give an infection rate of 150%. Even taking 2 random counties in California and applying that figure across the state gives a bogus factor. Applying the LACounty 4% infection rate to LACounty alone, them back-calculating to NYC gives an infection rate of 50%, which is better than 150%, but over twice the current measurement of 20%.
OBVIOUSLY you can't take a percent from one population and apply it to another, because you know those populations differ in terms of exposure. Nome Alaska is not Long Beach, California.
Your assumptions are invalid.
No. You're wrong.
I already did the math for NYC.
At 80 times it's a bit higher than 100%
At 50 times it's 67%.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
BTW 41 grocery store workers have died from c-19.
No they didn't.
Quote:
Hey Jack - at what age can we write someone off as, "they were going to die anyway?" Anyone 70+? 80+? 85? Who gets to make that call?
It depends on how fat and stupid they are.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:NYC infection rate MEASUREMENTS show that you're wrong. NYC MEASUREMENTS show a 20% infection rate. So there's no need to try and shoehorn Santa Clara numbers onto NYC to try and guesstimate what portion of NYC has already had it.
JACK:
"Models showing that 50 to 80 times as many people are infected than we know about "
No. You're wrong.
I already did the math for NYC.
At 80 times it's a bit higher than 100%
At 50 times it's 67%.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
And you just claiming you're right doesn't make it so.
But what the heck. Keep insisting that reality isn't so. It's no skin off of my nose.
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Quote:presumably disposable paper masks
Coronavirus Diagnoses In Staff Drop By Half After Boston Hospital Requires Masks For All
April 23, 2020
Carey Goldberg
After Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston began requiring that nearly everyone in the hospital wear masks, new coronavirus infections diagnosed in its staffers dropped by half — or more.
Brigham and Women’s epidemiologist Dr. Michael Klompas said the hospital mandated masks for all health care staffers on March 25, and extended the requirement to patients as well on April 6.
"When we first began our universal masking policy, we had 12 to 14 new infections per day among our health care workers," he said. "And then after we instituted employee masking, that number dropped down to around eight."]licNPR One
It dropped still further to about six new infections a day once patients had to wear masks, too.
This is by no means gold-plated evidence, Klompas said, and correlation is not causation, but it does suggest that wearing simple masks
Quote:
may help stem the spread of the virus, whether in a hospital or out in public.
He hopes to find out whether other hospitals in the Partners Healthcare system, which imposed the "universal mask" policy system-wide, have seen similar drops. "If it's a consistent pattern, I'd be more apt to believe it," he said.
It's thought that employees most often catch the virus outside the hospital, Klompas said, so that could explain why the number of new infections did not drop all the way to zero.
Before the masking policy was brought in, the numbers of new infections had been rising steadily, he explained. Under the new policy, they stabilized and then within a couple of days began to drop, even though the overall numbers were still rising in Boston and Massachusetts.
"So we were seeing a mismatch," he said, "in between what was happening with the health-care workers, where things were getting better, compared to the rest of the town, where things were getting worse."
The universal mask policy was still relatively rare when the Partners hospitals imposed it in late March, but is now common.
Reaction to the masking policy has been positive, Klompas said.
"My biggest challenge is simply remembering that I need to put my mask on every time I leave my office," he added. "Even I need reminding."
https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/23/brigham-and-womens-masks-
infections
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Here's a link for you, Dummy.
https://people.com/food/world-face-multiple-famines-biblical-proportio
ns-coronavirus-crisis/
I know you don't take stuff I post seriously without one, and I don't usually care, but since male suicides in our country are of no concern for you, here's the prelude to an insane amount of people who are going to die of hunger just so you don't get a wittle cold. Boo hoo.
Quote:
UN Leader Says the World Could Face 'Famines of Biblical Proportions' amid Coronavirus Crisis
“While dealing with a COVID-19 pandemic, we are also on the brink of a hunger pandemic,” David Beasley, the director of the UN World Food Program warned
As the world continues to battle the coronavirus pandemic, the United Nations is warning that without action, the world is at risk of numerous famines “of biblical proportions” in the near future.
He explained that famines could be seen “in about three dozen countries,” ten of which already have more than 1 million people on the verge of starvation.
“There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself,” he warned.
lol
I'm right again. Imagine that.
And yes... I did mention this the other day repeatedly, but it was ignored by both of you.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Your father and brother are going to starve to death??!!! My gosh! I thought you were in Indiana, not India!
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That response doesn't even make any sense, dummy.
Try again.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:It makes as much sense as yours.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That response doesn't even make any sense, dummy.
Try again.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
SIX, if you're really worried about someone near and dear to you committing suicide, why not step in to help? Your brother ... he's on meds, right? He has a doctor, right? How about calling the doctor and expressing your concern? He has a church, right? How about calling the pastor or minister and expressing your concern?
Now, I don't know what kind of support your dad has, but I gather that he and wife made two unwise moves in a row, first to one of the sunshine retirement states (AZ?) and then to FL to help out a step-child launch some sort of new business. And then covid-19 came along, and prolly torpedoed the business. Unlucky timing! MOST small businesses fail, but this really was a death-knell.
Does he have Social Security and/or any retirement plan? He may have to tighten his belt, but I hope he's looking for ways to get thru this.
In any case, if you know ANYBODY who seems imminently about to commit suicide, PLEASE give them a suicide hotline number.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by JACK:
since male suicides in our country are of no concern for you, here's the prelude to an insane amount of people who are going to die of hunger
Quote:You mean they're NOT going to commit suicide by starvation in India? I suppose that should be some relief!
Originally posted by JACK:
That response doesn't even make any sense, dummy.
Try again.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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