Real World Event Discussions
new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
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Friday, April 24, 2020 2:30 PM
FWIW I also went to DIVOC and looked through major countries with significant outbreaks, new deaths/ day/ 1M linear graph. (When I refer to significant outbreaks, that leaves SK, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Norway and so on out of the picture, since they started their responses early and have kept cases and deaths down to a manageable, minimal level.)
I wanted to see which countries had turned the corner on new deaths/ day/ 1M. Only Spain and Italy are on a very slow decent, kind of like a slowly sagging plateau. All other major countries are still on a upswing or have plateaued. (A few more days might reveal a new pattern, but not as of today.)
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Friday, April 24, 2020 2:57 PM
Quote:SK which doesn't mandate but has strong social pressure to wear a mask in public doesn't even register a death rate/ 1M
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Just as a point of curiosity, Czechia has been pointed out quite often as the nation which requires wearing masks in public. Their current death rate is 19.5/MM.
However, masks weren't their only response. They were one of the first to close their borders to China (Jan 30), Italy, S Korea, and Iran (Mar 2-7), and eventually to all nations (Apr 6), one of the first to ban gatherings (Mar 23) and close schools (mar 10), and require face masks (march 18). Since then, they have eased a lot of restrictions.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Friday, April 24, 2020 6:44 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
The problem with preventing epidemics is that if you do everything right ... nothing happens.
That tends to lead to the question "What WOULD have happened if we had done nothing"?
That's why I look at primarily Sweden and Norway, two nations that are culturally, economically, socially, as alike as possible, with the exception that Sweden has decided not to impose mandated social distancing while Norway has.
So, just checkin in with these nations on 91-divoc, I see that Sweden has surpassed a whole number of nations in deaths/MM, and is closing in on the Netherlands, which was one of the EU nations noted with a relatively high death rate - not quite as bad as Italy and Spain, but almost. So Sweden has jumped up to 187 deaths/MM and is still climbing rather smartly. It still has that peculiar "stairstep" pattern to the data.
Norway OTOH is at about 35 deaths/MM. Altho other nations have managed to control their outbreaks more successfully (Albania, Lithuania, Greece etc) Norways's curve is a lot flatter than Sweden's.
Just as a point of curiosity, Czechia has been pointed out quite often as the nation which requires wearing masks in public. Their current death rate is 19.5/MM.
However, masks weren't their only response. They were one of the first to close their borders to China (Jan 30), Italy, S Korea, and Iran (Mar 2-7), and eventually to all nations (Apr 6), one of the first to ban gatherings (Mar 23) and close schools (mar 10), and require face masks (march 18). Since then, they have eased a lot of rstrictions.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
You're still talking almost nothing in Sweeden. 2,021 deaths out of a population 10,230,000. I guaranty you that most of those are old and ill people.
And just like you can't prove that preventative measures did anything, you also can't prove that they didn't do anything either.
At some point you just have to look at the numbers as a whole and realize that this is not nearly as deadly as the panic mongers were saying that it would be and start looking at what we're doing to everybody else's lives and potentially their livelihood going forward in response to it and asking yourself if it's worth it.
We haven't even begun to really feel the effects of it yet. We'll know more about it when we see how many people who used to be employed don't have a job to go back to when things start opening up again.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Friday, April 24, 2020 7:04 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:Of course not. That's because you just blithely ignore reality.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm not going to adhere to those specific weeks.Quote:Well, if you're saying that the # of deaths per day will eventually go down as vulnerable people die off... you're right! But it won't happen as you show because there are still lots and lots and lots more (about 20X more) people across the USA to be infected, so my guess is that if we follow your "advice" and don't try to slow transmisison down the number of deaths per day would peak out 10X higher than it is now. So yeah... imagine that chart ten times taller, and the #of deaths per day at 15,000, not 2,000.
SIX: I'm not wrong though.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
No. You don't know that.
Models showing that 50 to 80 times as many people are infected than we know about (and I'm not providing a link for that since YOU AND KIKI posted those already, and you know exactly what I'm talking about) show a much higher number of those infected.
Current Known Cases in America: 869,172
x50 = 43,458,600
x80 = 69,533,760
People living in America: 328,200,000
x50: 328,200,000 / 43,458,000 = 7.5 times
x80: 328,200,000 / 69,533,760 = 4.7 times
(Neither of these are close to x20)
Current Deaths (supposedly) by Coomph in US: 49,963
x50: 49,963 x 7.5 = 374,723 (.115% of all Americans)
x80: 49,963 x 4.7 = 234,826 (.072% of all Americans)
I did imagine the chart taller. Not 10 times, but I'm under no illusion this number won't grow for a while. But eventually there is no one left to infect, and if there isn't any real evidence that re-infection will occur AND is still dangerous the 2nd time than what I'm saying holds true.
Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.
But at the end of the day, it's going to be an extremely small portion of the population. This isn't even throwing old people under the bus since most old people who get it aren't even going to die from it.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Friday, April 24, 2020 7:09 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.
I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?
Yeah. I actually do. I loved my job.
It's not just about work.
If you don't get it now, you will.
How'd you lose it?
Do you think that's true of most of these yahoos out "protesting?" Total BS if you think so.
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Friday, April 24, 2020 7:15 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.
Everyone dies eventually, so let's just stop Health Care in general - we'd save tons of money. Less traffic, no waiting in long lines, front row seating, nothing but upside. And by all means, let's let politicians decide on who to treat and when. TSSYP
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Friday, April 24, 2020 7:16 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.
I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?
Yeah. I actually do. I loved my job.
It's not just about work.
If you don't get it now, you will.
How'd you lose it?
Do you think that's true of most of these yahoos out "protesting?" Total BS if you think so.
How do you know half of my story but don't know all of it?
After corporate restructuring and replacement of the store manager and some middle management, I got laid off. My shift was deleted. Third time in my life I've been laid off now. First time it was at a low paying job. Sure, the money sucked, but once they got to know my work ethic I was able to pick my own schedule and got an amazing workout every night since I volunteered to do the area that was the most physical work. They also let me work 10 hours per night instead of the 7.5 hours we got on our normal shifts because they were happy to have me around as long as I wanted to. And none of my "peers" even bitched about my special privileges because they were just as happy to see me on nights I worked as the management was because it meant they had an easy night.
Pay could have been better. But I don't need much money and some things are more important than cash when you're not a wage slave.
But I'm wondering what your point is here...
Are you suggesting that people who aren't working now because they hate their jobs are better off for it?
Because I guaranty you that when the "free" government money stops and the economy opens back up and millions who used to have jobs don't have one to go back to that will not be the case.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Friday, April 24, 2020 7:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Almost all of the people who were going to die from this before the shutdowns are likely to die of something else soon or are going to eventually die of this anyhow.
Everyone dies eventually, so let's just stop Health Care in general - we'd save tons of money. Less traffic, no waiting in long lines, front row seating, nothing but upside. And by all means, let's let politicians decide on who to treat and when. TSSYP
I didn't say anything about health care, dummy.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Friday, April 24, 2020 7:27 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
At some point you just have to look at the numbers as a whole and realize that this is not nearly as deadly as the panic mongers were saying that it would be and start looking at what we're doing to everybody else's lives and potentially their livelihood going forward in response to it and asking yourself if it's worth it.
That's because people stayed home, doofus. Can't contract it if you stay away from those that have it, gdamn. You still don't get how a virus works.
The problem is how to reintegrate everyone without making it worse. Too many people too fast and we go back to overwhelming HC providers and that's a DEF Con 5 situation - absolutely can't keep pushing those people.
Georgia? Trump pushed the Gov and he took the bait. He's out on a limb all by himself. Well, with his entire state. They're the test subject. We'll see. Would they even post the real numbers if they were bad? Or would Trump fire people until he finds one who will say "it worked!"
TREATMENT is key. Vaccine is way too far out to be effective in bringing back any semblance of normal or a stable economy.
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Friday, April 24, 2020 7:34 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
At some point you just have to look at the numbers as a whole and realize that this is not nearly as deadly as the panic mongers were saying that it would be and start looking at what we're doing to everybody else's lives and potentially their livelihood going forward in response to it and asking yourself if it's worth it.
That's because people stayed home, doofus. Can't contract it if you stay away from those that have it, gdamn. You still don't get how a virus works.
The problem is how to reintegrate everyone without making it worse. Too many people too fast and we go back to overwhelming HC providers and that's a DEF Con 5 situation - absolutely can't keep pushing those people.
Georgia? Trump pushed the Gov and he took the bait. He's out on a limb all by himself. Well, with his entire state. They're the test subject. We'll see. Would they even post the real numbers if they were bad? Or would Trump fire people until he finds one who will say "it worked!"
TREATMENT is key. Vaccine is way too far out to be effective in bringing back any semblance of normal or a stable economy.
No it's not. (In regards to the underlined sentence).
You can look at my math. At 100% infection rate not even 500,000 die here from this, and the number could be quite a bit smaller.
You have to start asking yourself if the life we're going to go back to is worth saving lives of people who didn't have a lot of time left in the first place.
I know a bleeding heart pussy like you can't comprehend that idea and it makes you cry just thinking about it.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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