new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
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Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:Quote:I have NEVER counted confirmed cases, moron. I have been pointing out the problem with limited testing EVER SINCE I STARTED POSTING about this, which you would have noticed if you paid the slightest attention to anything other than your own feelz.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How are either of those numbers "astonishing"?
Boy are you people in for a rude awakening when something comes that is actually serious.
BTW... 1,200 deaths per million is .12% and 500 deaths per million is .05%.
Not 1.2% and .5%.
Making them less "astonishing" by a factor of 10.
At least you're thinking out side of the box now though and not going by confirmed cases anymore.
What made you finally come around? I've been saying that was bullshit since day fekkin one.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Now, how about getting back to your ridiculous plan to kill off almost a third of the people in the USA to "re open" a fascist economy?
Sounds like a winner to me! /snark
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
My point, dummy, is that nowhere near 1/3 of the population would die.
Quit your fear mongering, Karen 2.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:THANKS FOR THE LAFF !!!
JACK:
My point, dummy, is that nowhere near 1/3 of the population would die.
Quit your fear mongering, Karen 2.
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You're welcome, Karen 1.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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So, Signy, I know you've been busy elsewhere. Originally my thoughts were that to really explode, the virus needed dense housing, and lots of mixing.
But I've also been trying to find distinct categories of settings, and distinct categories of response. This is my understanding off the top of my head as to what was done where.
Sweden appears to be nearly alone on the 'do nothing' end. And it's a high-income, high-tech country that might be easily compared to other high-income, high-tech countries. BUT there are a lot of exceptions and caveats with the Swedish example. Half the Swedish working population works from home anyway, so social distancing is already built in to the country. And the population is very dispersed, so that makes Sweden not a very good comparison to countries with dense populations, or dense population centers. Sweden relies on volunteerism, and it claims that 90% are voluntarily practicing social distancing anyway. And the news I've seen about Sweden is distinctly contradictory - from they're not doing anything at all to they've recently started to impose controls to they've lifted those controls (about 10 days after the report they were imposing controls). And their testing rate is low. So Sweden is one example of one response, but not a simple, clear-cut one.
SK had a completely different response. It started mass testing EARLY, created a protocol for people trying to enter the country, and imposed MANDATORY (police enforced) home quarantines only for those who test positive and a 14 day home quarantines for people who recovered. In the public sphere it created a very strong social pressure campaign to wear masks, practice good hygiene, and avoid gathering in large groups. Other than that, SK didn't issue any mass stay-at-home recommendations or orders. But SK also has a peculiarity behind its data, in that at one point half of all people with COVID-19 were from the breakaway church that decided to hold large gatherings anyway. So its entry into SARS-COV-2 was extremely circumscribed to that group, and that allowed it to get a handle on who was infected very early.
Taiwan initially had measures similar to SK with the exception that it closed its borders and airports, but cases have spiked recently. Also, I'm not sure that they have as much testing as SK. BTW Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan are currently in the same place w/ cases/1M but got there by different routes. Macau is right across the bay from Hong Kong and is essentially Las Vegas, it simply shut down all its casinos, and has leveled off at a very low level. After a big jump lasting about 20 days, Taiwan is leveling off, but Hong Kong is still very much on the upswing. THANKS! Carrie Lam!
Anyway, Italy is a good example of ... something. Because it wasn't all of Italy that was affected, it was mostly some very restricted urban regions in the north. So, as a very urban example of do nothing until too late, maybe it works. Maybe the closest equivalent is NYC, with its very dense urban population that had unseen community spread for a long time as well. (And NJ seems very tied to NYC in terms of cases/1M and the shape of the curve.)
California is a good example of ... idk. Overall it has a really dispersed population w/ high levels of mixing - yanno, driving large distances from all over to get together in one place like work, at the store etc. And it has a curve that's unlike most others in that despite stay at home advisories, and while the numbers are really low per 1M, the curve is hardly bending. It's a puzzle.
BTW, looking at the data and how hard it is to bend the curve in dense urban areas, and how SLOWLY the curve returns back to zero, I have a theory. Assuming dispersed populations have an automatic cut-off in terms of mixing, once people stop making the effort to get together, the natural isolation drops the mixing to near zero. But a dense population will ALWAYS have a residual amount of mixing because you just can't get away from each other, even
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Well, my main concern was to try and compare Sweden's "do nothing" approach (altho, as you posted, in reality they ARE doing something, it's just voluntary) to a mandatory approach.
Denmark isn't a good comparison because it's a lot more crowded than Sweden, so in terms of population density, percent of people in assisted living, percent of people who work from home and technical capability Norway is the closest analogue and Finland would be second. None of them are big tourist destinations.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/879251/employees-teleworking-in-th
e-eu/
Sweden is currently at 146 deaths/MM (Jeez, last time I pulled out a figure it was 88) Norway is at 30.6, Finland is at 16.3 and (just for kicks) Denmark is at 59.4.
****
I can explain San Marino and Andorra, which are microstates heavily dependent on tourism. Switzerland is in the same boat. Spain and Italy also have a lot of tourists, and under troika-enforced austerity I would imagine that housing is more multi-generational than in the Nordic countries because assisted living is a luxury that neither the government nor individuals can afford, but I can't explain Belgium which is right up there with Andorra and still climbing. Also, you would think that Portugal would be the same as Spain (austerity, tourism) but it's not.
Anyway, your post sparked a whole lot of thoughts about "where people are exposed" ... at work; in residences; in open-air public; at mass gatherings like spring break, religious celebrations, and sports events ... and so far mass gatherings seem to be the biggest driver, place of residence seems to be another, and work - specifically in the tourism sector - seems to be another important one. But that is already evolving as the initial exposures spark secondary exposures (in health care workers, for example).
I have heard that "wealth is a Covid-19 vector", which goes along with my observation that in the west it was first prevalent in what I called the "well-heeled, well-traveled, well-connected".
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Plenty of poor people have had it and recovered from it.
They just don't go running to the doctor every time they get the sniffles like the rich folk do.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:The Swiss have plenty of other high tech and financialism income, so it's not as dependent on tourism. And indeed Switzerland is about 3,000cases/M, while Andorra is ~9,000 and San Marino is ~11,000. I don't really count either Andorra or San Marino though, because their populations are so low, fluke events could drive their statistics in any direction.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, my main concern was to try and compare Sweden's "do nothing" approach (altho, as you posted, in reality they ARE doing something, it's just voluntary) to a mandatory approach.
Denmark isn't a good comparison because it's a lot more crowded than Sweden, so in terms of population density, percent of people in assisted living, percent of people who work from home and technical capability Norway is the closest analogue and Finland would be second. None of them are big tourist destinations.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/879251/employees-teleworking-in-th
e-eu/
Sweden is currently at 146 deaths/MM (Jeez, last time I pulled out a figure it was 88) Norway is at 30.6, Finland is at 16.3 and (just for kicks) Denmark is at 59.4.
****
I can explain San Marino and Andorra, which are microstates heavily dependent on tourism. Switzerland is in the same boat.
Quote:In terms of ppm deaths, and not counting San Marino and Andorra, it's Belgium on a steep rise, Spain leveling off, Italy / France/ UK on literally the exact same curve (except France and UK were later getting there), then the Netherlands with a weirdly undulating curve, then Sweden and Switzerland on the same curve except Sweden's still soaring at the recent end while Switzerland is leveling off. I can account for the Belgium - it's a wealthy, highly international place with a very dense population. In terms of economy/ austerity/ density/ culture ... I'd put Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal in the same category. Wasn't that big soccer match between Italy and Spain? That could explain why those 2 countries specifically were so hard hit and Portugal and Greece weren't.
Spain and Italy also have a lot of tourists, and under troika-enforced austerity I would imagine that housing is more multi-generational than in the Nordic countries because assisted living is a luxury that neither the government nor individuals can afford, but I can't explain Belgium which is right up there with Andorra and still climbing. Also, you would think that Portugal would be the same as Spain (austerity, tourism) but it's not.
In terms of ppm deaths, Italy / France/ UK being on the exact same curve. But maybe because Italy's issues were limited geographically but are averaged out across the whole country, it puts a big kink in comparisons. But I can see both France and the UK being equivalent. But why they're both so high I'm not sure. BTW Sweden Switzerland and the US are on the same curve with some variation - the US's curve in time isn't as long as either of the other 2, and Sweden is still headed to the stratosphere while Switzerland is leveling off.
Quote:
Anyway, your post sparked a whole lot of thoughts about "where people are exposed" ... at work; in residences; in open-air public; at mass gatherings like spring break, religious celebrations, and sports events ... and so far mass gatherings seem to be the biggest driver, place of residence seems to be another, and work - specifically in the tourism sector - seems to be another important one. But that is already evolving as the initial exposures spark secondary exposures (in health care workers, for example).
I have heard that "wealth is a Covid-19 vector", which goes along with my observation that in the west it was first prevalent in what I called the "well-heeled, well-traveled, well-connected".
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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What I got out of this is that there is no "one size fits all" solution*. Some nations (or states) have many people who can work from home, others have high tourism/travel, some are manufacturing intensive and others can manage with testing and contact tracing.
Sweden can get away with an approach that NYC can't. And even with all of its built-in advantages, Sweden's experience isn't as good as similar nations with similar advantages.
Unless you're like China, and you pull out all the stops and do EVERYTHING POSSIBLE, at the point of a gun, literally locking down an entire province, separating sick family members from healthy, and building at least a half-dozen pop-up hospitals. But then, that's China.
*Except #WEARAMASK in public. That is truly appropriate no matter what kind of society.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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I think it's hilarious how many commercials I heard on the radio today while working outside in the garage telling people to wash their hands.
As if that's only something they should be doing when the government is lying to them about a fake deadly disease.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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So, thinking back KIKI to what you posted about California's slow but steady increase in cases ... I think you can infer the mode of transmission from the shape of the curve.
So, what mode of transmission produces this slow, steady rise? I think we can rule out any specific mass-gathering/event because that would produce sudden spikes in the case #s. Close contact spread would lead to a higher curve, as would crowded housing (because then it would spread to 3,4 or more people all at once). And given that so much is locked down we can rule out schools, gyms etc.
It probably is person-to-person in "essential" public spaces... grocery stores, home improvement stores etc.
Well, it's only been two weeks since the people in my local stores have gotten to near-100% on mask-wearing, so if it's "essential" public spaces, for example, we should see the effects soon (once we get past the Mardi Gras bump?)
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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