new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
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And now a word from the other side ...
Quote:You can have a large portion of "the vulnerable" die and thus "flatten the curve" but ONLY IF you have a massive die off first, and THEN have the daily deaths diminish. OTOH, neither Finland nor Norway have had a die-off, and yet they've managed to "flatten the curve" without killing off their most vulnerable, so his statement is clearly false on its face.
Sweden Vs COVID-19: Why "Herd Immunity" Matters & Why Lockdown Doesn't Really Work
Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:
UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
The paper was very much too pessimistic
Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
Quote:When is that? Two years from now?
The results will eventually be similar for all countries
Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
In any case, testing serological testing in CA is demonstrating relatively low infection rates (Probaby less than 5%). It would be interesting to see what the infection rates are in such clusterfucked areas as northern Italy and NYC, but they're so up to their asses in alligators I don't know if they have time to test.
That would be where coordination would help, since lesser-impacted states could volunteer to help with the sampling and analysis.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Thanks for looking up the problems w/ the Stanford study. I don't know how long it took you to dig that out, but it's extremely relevant. I appreciate it.
I did also read about the USC study here: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serolo
gy-testing-la-county
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Though I wish tptb would give serious consideration to what really works, short of fantasizing that antibodies will be manna from heaven, thinking that ppl will need an 'antibody passport' registered with the government to do anything in public, or that we'll just have to endure and wait to line up whenever $vaccine$ becomes available, or some other fascistic fantasy. There are better ways to deal with this. Yanno, look at SK, with an extremely low infection rate, and a nearly flat (log) curve, that didn't do any of that nonsense, and still has its economy running.
The solution is abundantly clear.
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What is abundantly clear?
Are you comparing SK to the US?
By what metric? Everything from our cultures to our infrastructure couldn't be more different. And the variations of population densities across our country couldn't be more wild... something that SK really doesn't have.
Even with their "limited" response to the Coomph, they sound pretty worried about the effects of them. They seem a lot more honest about the reprocussions from what little comparative actions they have taken than any of our media is.
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200421005300320
Quote:
SEJONG, April 21 (Yonhap) -- The coronavirus pandemic could have a negative impact on births and marriages this year and is feared to accelerate population decline in South Korea, a senior finance ministry official said Tuesday.
Vice Finance Minister Kim Yong-beom said in a meeting on the nation's population policy that the coronavirus outbreak has reshaped people's everyday lives, prompting people to work from home and students to take online classes.
"There are worries that shocks from COVID-19 could have a negative impact on births and marriages and accelerate a decline in birthrates this year," Kim said.
Kim urged officials to take a "new approach" on population policy in the wake of the pandemic.
South Korea's total fertility rate hit an all-time low in 2019, a clear sign of its population decline down the road.
The country's total fertility rate, which refers to the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime, came to 0.92 last year, down from 0.98 a year earlier, according to the data from Statistics Korea.
Last year marked the second consecutive year for the rate to fall below 1. South Korea was the only member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that had a total fertility rate below 1.
As for people here? It's been 5 or 6 weeks now for most of us, which for many of us is all the time it takes to develop new habits. Good or bad.
People aren't just going to bounce back from this. Some will. Most won't. People are going to be changed, and more people will be changed the longer this goes on. But at least they'll be washing their hands, because I guess until late March of 2020 that wasn't a thing that a lot of people did.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:If you take the USC and Stanford studies at their word (since they both came up with reasonably similar percentages), you could extrapolate that 0.04 fraction of the state of California was infected. Multiplying that by the state of 40M population gives 1,600,000 infected. There were roughly 1250 deaths in California so the fraction of deaths of those infected is 0.0008.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
But other studies are in the works ... the latest from USC which shows that approximately 4% of the LA population had Covid-19 at one point.
If you take the number of deaths in NYC (roughly 10,000) and divide by the death/infected fraction, you get 12,800,000 infected. But that's impossible, since there are only about 8M people in NYC.
The tests are bogus.
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Here’s a Lifesaving COVID-19 Test That Costs Almost Nothing
Well, almost nothing after you buy the $40 pulse/oxygen meter from Walgreens. It is next to blood pressure monitors and blood glucose monitors.
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/heres-a-lifesaving-covid-19-tes
t-that-costs-almost-nothing/
The New York Times ran a fascinating op-ed on Monday, and I’m surprised that it hasn’t gotten more attention. Here’s the nickel summary: a hotshot ER doctor volunteered to spend time at Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan and discovered something odd. Practically everyone he saw had pneumonia caused by COVID-19:
Even patients without respiratory complaints had Covid pneumonia. The patient stabbed in the shoulder, whom we X-rayed because we worried he had a collapsed lung, actually had Covid pneumonia. In patients on whom we did CT scans because they were injured in falls, we coincidentally found Covid pneumonia. Elderly patients who had passed out for unknown reasons and a number of diabetic patients were found to have it.
And here is what really surprised us: These patients did not report any sensation of breathing problems, even though their chest X-rays showed diffuse pneumonia and their oxygen was below normal. How could this be?
www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html
You can—and should!—click the link to read the details, but the short answer turns out to be that COVID-19 attacks the lungs in an unusual way: it causes the air sacs to collapse and oxygen levels to fall, but the lungs still expel carbon dioxide normally. Since it’s carbon dioxide buildup that causes you to feel short of breath, patients had never even noticed anything was wrong:
A vast majority of Covid pneumonia patients I met had remarkably low oxygen saturations at triage — seemingly incompatible with life — but they were using their cellphones as we put them on monitors….Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it….By the time patients have noticeable trouble breathing and present to the hospital with dangerously low oxygen levels, many will ultimately require a ventilator.
As you know, about 80 percent of people with COVID-19 have either mild symptoms or no symptoms. But the other 20 percent develop pneumonia and many end up on ventilators and eventually die. The problem is that they don’t feel anything for the first week, and by the time they do it’s too late. So how can we catch these cases earlier? With this:
This is a pulse oximeter, and it measures the level of oxygenation in your blood. You probably get a quick oxygenation test every time you see a doctor. So the answer is: test your blood oxygenation every day. If it falls below normal levels, get to an ER and get tested for COVID-19. Your chances of survival are way higher if you can get to it early.
Yes, I Bought a Pulse Oximeter Today
by Kevin Drum
Just to follow up on this morning’s post, I did indeed go out to Walgreens and buy a pulse oximeter today.
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/yes-i-bought-a-pulse-oximeter-t
oday/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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KIKI already posted this but thanks for the repeat.
If people truly are damaging their own lungs in an effort to get more O2, then one super easy way to prevent damage is to simply give people O2 early on, and to test for Osats at home. Both in-home tests and therapies
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What is abundantly clear?
Are you comparing SK to the US?
By what metric? Everything from our cultures to our infrastructure couldn't be more different. And the variations of population densities across our country couldn't be more wild... something that SK really doesn't have.
Even with their "limited" response to the Coomph, they sound pretty worried about the effects of them. They seem a lot more honest about the reprocussions from what little comparative actions they have taken than any of our media is.
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200421005300320Quote:
SEJONG, April 21 (Yonhap) -- The coronavirus pandemic could have a negative impact on births and marriages this year and is feared to accelerate population decline in South Korea, a senior finance ministry official said Tuesday.
Vice Finance Minister Kim Yong-beom said in a meeting on the nation's population policy that the coronavirus outbreak has reshaped people's everyday lives, prompting people to work from home and students to take online classes.
"There are worries that shocks from COVID-19 could have a negative impact on births and marriages and accelerate a decline in birthrates this year," Kim said.
Kim urged officials to take a "new approach" on population policy in the wake of the pandemic.
South Korea's total fertility rate hit an all-time low in 2019, a clear sign of its population decline down the road.
The country's total fertility rate, which refers to the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime, came to 0.92 last year, down from 0.98 a year earlier, according to the data from Statistics Korea.
Last year marked the second consecutive year for the rate to fall below 1. South Korea was the only member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that had a total fertility rate below 1.
As for people here? It's been 5 or 6 weeks now for most of us, which for many of us is all the time it takes to develop new habits. Good or bad.
People aren't just going to bounce back from this. Some will. Most won't. People are going to be changed, and more people will be changed the longer this goes on. But at least they'll be washing their hands, because I guess until late March of 2020 that wasn't a thing that a lot of people did.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Ignoring facts outside of your one track mind again, I see.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Signy, looking at DIVOC the California 'cases' curve started to heel over ~March 31, 2020. The event previous to that was "===> CA stay at home March 19, 2020 (PM)", so it looks like stay at home most closely associates with bending the curve.
Then there's another bend around April 10, 2020. The event previous to that was "===> April 03, 2020 LACounty asks all people wear masks outside the home.".
LACounty has an extremely inconsistent up/down pattern that I think might be due to backlogged laboratories (and it's been well reported how delayed results are) submitting positive results in batches. Just the other day, there was an extra large backlogged batch of ~1,100 confirmed cases submitted in one day. That spike and the reason for it even made the news.
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This is an exceptionally data-comprehensive article in the NYTimes, which you can access for free as long as you're not in incognito mode.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-death-ra
tes.html
You can look at California https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/california-coronavirus-cas
es.html to see how we're doing, by going to the bottom of the page. Links to (among other things) individual states are found there.
Unfortunately, when it comes to California data, the dump of ~1,100 backlogged new positive LACounty cases by a laboratory in one day (April 20, 220) makes hash of any time sequence you might want to formally derive.
But if you except that artificial spike, it looks like stay-at-home had the clearest effect 2 weeks out at significantly cutting new California cases from an upslope curve to a downslope curve.
CA stay at home March 19, 2020 (PM)
April 03, 2020 The CDC recommends all people wear masks outside the home.
April 03, 2020 LACounty asks all people wear masks outside the home.
April 07, 2020 The City of Los Angeles requires all people wear masks outside the home.
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