new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
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How many people in NYC have been infected with SARS-COV-2?
150% as some data indicates?
100% as JACK claims?
The answer so far is closer to 20%
Quote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-tes
t-ny.html
1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest
But rather than using antibodies in the decision to relax anti-SARS-COV-2 measures, Cuomo is basing his recommendation on numbers of people being hospitalized, about 1,350 patients per day. That number indicates there's still dangerous levels of infection.
Quote:
The state’s plan would involve tracking infections as restrictions are loosened on gatherings and businesses. Antibody testing would be used, Mr. Cuomo said, for identifying coronavirus survivors who can donate convalescent plasma — the part of the blood that contains antibodies — for a treatment that is being tested on patients with the virus at the Mount Sinai Health System in New York, and elsewhere.
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And now for what could be worse news:
Quote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-release
d-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/
New data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for coronavirus patients. Company still sees reason for hope
Quote:However, as I previously posted, that could be because the drug was given AFTER cytokine storm became the primary pathology.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slide-report-gilead-miracle-d
rug-remdesivir-flopped-during-first-clinical-trial
Stocks Dump, Gilead Crashes After FT Reports Gilead's Remdesivir "Flops" In First Clinical Trial
Update (1350ET): How did the FT and Statnews get their hands on the remdesivir study? They were simply perusing the WHO website at the right time and just happened to stumble upon.
Giving it earlier might still work.
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SEROLOGY TESTING FOR SARS-COV2 IN NYC AND ACROSS NYS
Quote:
...The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it, Cuomo said.
With more than 19.4 million people residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.
The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. In Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester, where the state's first major outbreak originated, 11.7% of the tests were positive. The Covid-19 pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results.
....The testing results also may be artificially high because "these are people who were out and about shopping," Cuomo added. "They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn't come out of the house."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13po
int9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html
Yep. Biased sampling, Always a confounding factor,
Also, I don't know what test kit they used, but I'm sure Chris Martenson will have something to say about that.
For those of you unfamiliar with testing, one of the continuing problems with these point-of-care (fingerstick) tests is that they suffer from high false positives (as high as 5%) because they will also react to other coronaviruses. So you could, in theory, test 100 people who have never been exposed to SARS-CoV2 and get five positive results.
Therefore, when testing people with a low exposure rate, the results are somewhat iffy, as they could be attributed to false positives/chance. However, at the roughly 21% exposure rate in NYC the results become more robust, and chance has less of an impact.
So we should expect to see roughly 4X more deaths until herd immunity is reached at about 85%, or slighlty less than 5X more deaths until everyone has been exposed and infected. That would mean about 60,000 - 75,000 in NYC. ASSUMING ANTIBODIES CONFER ROBUST, LONG-LASTING IMMUNITY, which could be a mirage.
Also, since everyone wants to know "what does this mean FOR ME?" since 21% of 8.7 million people (NYC) have been infected and about 15,000 have died this is a case fatality rate of about 0.8%. However, since people are STILL dying of infections thta got weeks ago (there is a lag between infections and death of AT LEAST 2 weeks)
the possibility is that the case fatality rate will be somewhat higher ... maybe more in the realm of 1%. Also, this will vary from region to region depending on how old, fat, and sick the population is as well as quality of care, but doesn't bode well for the rural south where people are fatter and sicker than in most other parts of the nation. By contrast, Colorado should do better, since people there are leaner, healthier, and younger, with higher quality of care.-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:If I were to characterize this study, I'd call it a survey. Sometimes before you do an actual study you go out there and poke around to get an idea of how much is there, how well does your method/ equipment/ logistics work.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
SEROLOGY TESTING FOR SARS-COV2 IN NYC AND ACROSS NYS
....The testing results also may be artificially high because "these are people who were out and about shopping," Cuomo added. "They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn't come out of the house."
Yep. Biased sampling, Always a confounding factor.
Quote:One developed by NYS apparently, just like they developed their own PCR test for the SARS-COV-2 virus.
Also, I don't know what test kit they used, but I'm sure Chris Martenson will have something to say about that.
Quote:The state believes this test is accurate enough to be usable. But they're limiting any intended application so far to identifying people who might be able to donate plasma. They're not looking to base any policy decisions on that.
For those of you unfamiliar with testing, one of the continuing problems with these point-of-care (fingerstick) tests is that they suffer from high false positives (as high as 5%) because they will also react to other coronaviruses. So you could, in theory, test 100 people who have never been exposed to SARS-CoV2 and get five positive results.
Therefore, when testing people with a low exposure rate, the results are somewhat iffy, as they could be attributed to false positives/chance. However, at the roughly 21% exposure rate in NYC the results become more robust, and chance has less of an impact.
As I read elsewhere, Cuomo is basing lifting restrictions on numbers of hospital admissions for COVID-19, which are currently still deemed to be too high for any change in policy.
Quote:
So we should expect to see roughly 4X more deaths until herd immunity is reached at about 85%, or slightly less than 5X more deaths until everyone has been exposed and infected. That would mean about 60,000 - 75,000 in NYC. ASSUMING ANTIBODIES CONFER ROBUST, LONG-LASTING IMMUNITY, which could be a mirage.
Also, since everyone wants to know "what does this mean FOR ME?" since 21% of 8.7 million people (NYC) have been infected and about 15,000 have died this is a case fatality rate of about 0.8%. However, since people are STILL dying of infections that they got weeks ago (there is a lag between infections and death of AT LEAST 2 weeks)
Quote:There's a reason why I believe that after a majority in a referendum states should be able to throw their doors wide open, but only with the caveat that they can't then later tap into federal monies for help with COVID-19.
the possibility is that the case fatality rate will be somewhat higher ... maybe more in the realm of 1%. Also, this will vary from region to region depending on how old, fat, and sick the population is as well as quality of care, but doesn't bode well for the rural south where people are fatter and sicker than in most other parts of the nation. By contrast, Colorado should do better, since people there are leaner, healthier, and younger, with higher quality of care.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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KIKI- thanks for the clarifications!
Seeing in the other thread about remdesivir, and having heard very similar things about hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) ... didn't work, but maybe if given earlier and with zinc ...
Plus the fact that people are STILL popping up with SARS-CoV2 months after having tested "negative" still puts a question mark after the concept of vaccine ...
leaves us with
masks
handwashing
social isolation
test and contact trace
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:One of the problems with chloroquine (related to HCQ) is that it causes significant - and sometimes fatal - heart arrhythmias. Both these drugs have been used for a long time to treat other conditions besides malaria, such as lupus, As such, their side effects are well known. After a debate about the relative safety of both drugs, a small study in Brazil was launched to test chloroquine, as it was deemed the safer drug. The study was halted after only 10 days due to a large number of deaths (~17% of patients) on the higher dose. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056424v2
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
... having heard very similar things about hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) ...
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
MASKS
HANDWASHING
Are you dense, or something??
It's working in Czechia (Czech Republic), why not here?
GO to 91-divoc and look at deaths per million.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol no.
You're going to have riots on the street if this social isolation goes another month.
You better figure out another answer or just let this thing run its course.
Do you miss going to work? Yup, didn't think so.
I'm guessing (not really) that there's someone or group behind the recent, coordinate, well organized, perfectly timed, all in states with Dem Govs, "we want to go back to work!" bullshit. Were you out there banging a drum to go back to your sh*t job? No? Why not?
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Today, Trump took to the podium and made a deeply bizarre inference.
“Supposing we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light ... and then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re gonna test that,” Trump said, addressing Bryan. “And then I see disinfectant, where it knocks it [coronavirus] out in a minute — one minute — and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning. Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that. So, that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me.” https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253448500676898818
He then attacked Washington Post reporter Philip Rucker after Rucker advised him, “People tuning into these briefings — they want to get information and guidance and want to know what to do. They’re not looking for rumors.”
“I’m the president and you’re fake news,” Trump said.
www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21233628/trump-disinfectant-injections-sunlight-
coronavirus-briefing
The first reporter that yells out: "What the fuck are you talking about?" should automatically receive a Pulitzer Prize.
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