new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
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I just wanted to thrown this in: article head in CNN "You can catch it more than once"
Reading down into the article, it says no such thing. It says you may not be protected - but leaves unstated that then again you may - but nobody knows for sure.
That kind of misrepresentation really irks me.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:Another gross misunderstanding of how the world works.
They're not getting all the free shit that Western cultures give to them on any given usual day because we're not producing the free shit to give them anymore.
No it's not. We've talked about this shit ad nauseam in the past and we're in agreement on it. You just forget that we used to agree about stuff.
Quote:
Poor nations around the world don't get "free shit" from the USA and the EU. The reason why they're poor is because the USA and the EU have predatory relationships with them.
No shit.
But I'm sure the fact that you and I know this is going to look great on the tombstone for the mass graves of millions of people dying of hunger because the free shit train stopped immediately overnight.
There is a difference between being poor and exploited and being dead from starvation. It might not be much of a difference, but the overreaction in the Western World to The Coomph is going to make that pretty clear soon.
Quote:
Why do you suppose we have bases all over the goddamn world, SIX? Do you think it's because people everywhere are grateful for all the "free shit" that we give them?
Why are you asking me these questions as if we haven't discussed this before and we aren't in agreement on it?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:You went to the place I was thinking you would be going. It is no surprise that you found the movie Joker admirable. Joker plays a number game, too, and will kill an unlimited number of people to get for himself what he wants.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:What a load of bullshit. There is nothing you have ever written that shows you are "concerned". You could be a politician lying about caring for "survivors".
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What I'm concerned about is what life is going to be like for the survivors of The Coomph. The many, many, many, many, many, many survivors.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
It's not a load of bullshit. How so?
Even when I talk about our overpopulation problem that most people are afraid to even bring up because of dumbass comments like yours from dumbass people like you, I always talk about them with the survivors in mind.
At the end of the day this little cold isn't going to do anything at all to solve a much larger problem we all face down the road. There are far too many people on this planet. That is just a fact.
And with 360,000 more babies being born every single day, we're not even coming close to putting a dent in the growth of new lives by adding any temporary death increases brought about by The Coomph.
Not even close.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=36&tid=63327&mid=1095451#
1095451
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Whatever, faggot.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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If you don't want to read the whole article, basically what it says is that in almost all of 14 countries that they looked at (except Denmark), the total number of "excess" deaths compared to five-year average is 60% higher than the officially reported Covid-19 deaths. In some underdeveloped areas (presumably where testing and reporting is overwhelmed) the excess deaths are 100X reported Covid-19 deaths.
The conclusion is that Covid deaths are being underreported.
Quote:
Coronavirus Deaths Likely 60% Higher Than Official Numbers Reflect, FT Finds
As experts try to model the true number of coronavirus deaths, and some random 'surveillance' studies have suggested that - at least in some badly hit areas - the number of confirmed coronavirus cases might be many multiples of the official count, the FT has published its latest attempt at trying to 'model' the true coronavirus death toll.
The FT used a fairly straightforward methodology: the paper took data on national death tolls over a certain stretch of time going back five years, calculated the mean for each country, then compared that figure to the number of deaths reported during the same time period in 2020.
To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.
The difference between the average from the past five years and the 2020 number is, roughly, the number of deaths caused by the coronavirus (by far the biggest differentiating factor). Across countries in the developed world, the FT found 122,000 deaths 'in excess' of normal levels. That's compared with ~77k reported coronavirus deaths. If the FT's methodolgy checks out, that would mean coronavirus deaths have been 60% higher than official statics reflect - at least in the developed world.
The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries. Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods. If the same level of underreporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000.
The only country that showed almost now deviation between 'excess deaths' and the number of confirmed coronavirus cases was Denmark.
The gulf between the 'official' coronavirus death toll and the 'excess mortality' rate tabulated by the FT. was widest in the emerging world. In some places, the difference was ~100x (that's 100x not 100%). Officials reported roughly 250 deaths due to the virus, but the number of 'excess' deaths was 10,200 in Ecuador's Guayas Province.
In Ecuador’s Guayas province, just 245 official COVID-19-related deaths were reported between March 1 and April 15, but data on total deaths show that about 10,200 more people died during this period than in a typical year - an increase of 350 per cent.
If we assume that every single 'excess' case calculated by the FT is representative of a single case of COVID-19 (not exactly a scientific assumption, but fair enough for an estimate...), then we can compare which provinces, states and countries were most badly impacted. According to the FT, the region surrounding the Italian city of Bergamo suffered a much more severe outbreak than New York State.
In the northern Italian region of Lombardy, the heart of Europe’s worst outbreak, there are more than 13,000 excess deNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
That's quite significant, Signy.
I did somewhat anticipate it, but in the context of China.
Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=1
Ultimately, long after the fact, the number could be estimated by population-wide statistical 'excess deaths', if there are enough to move the overall death rate enough beyond chance probabilities.
Yes, that's the other way to look for COVID-19 deaths, is 'excess' deaths. For example, the reportedly 5X 'excess' deaths due to specifically heart attack and heart failure, which I've already mentioned. But if COVID-19 is a multi-system pathology - heart, kidney, clotting, lung, GI, liver, and brain ... that we know of ... and who knows what else ... then a big spike in 'other' deaths and all deaths would be an indicator.
And it looks like those numbers are SO high, we don't need to sift through data like I thought we might.
And those excess deaths in NYC track the real-life facts of overwhelmed ERs and hospitals, hundreds on hundreds of dead every day, reefer storage for bodies, and mass graves.
So I'm very interested in those actual numbers, and at the same time, discouraged.
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A couple of comments on those graphs:
Those are legitimate graphs. Do you know how some illustrators start the vertical axis at something other than zero, to exaggerate the difference between "before" and "after"? Well, NOT HERE. The vertical axis starts at zero, and the increased death rate is as big and bad as shown: double, triple, quadruple OR MORE the usual death rate. (And no, SIX, it's not due to starvation or suicide.)
One explanation is that Covid-19 DIRECTLY caused these deaths thru non-pneumonia pathways that simply weren't recognized as covid. Another explanation is that, as hospitals are overwhelmed, other illnesses and trauma sinply aren't treated. I have a hard time believing that second explanation as causing more than some small fraction ... say, 10%... of those excess deaths.
Another thing about those graph: despite the fact that Covid-19 is reducing only slowly, the excess deaths are dropping pretty quickly. I don't know if that's because the drop is really proportionate to the reduction of covid-19 cases and its just time scale that makes it look so steep, or whether the "excess deaths" really are dropping a lot faster than the covid-19 cases. I would have to chart both to see if they're both dropping equaly sharply. If not, it's a puzzle to pursue.
But rather than finding these discouraging, I find them encouraging because the excess death rates seem to be dropping very quickly. Except for Jakarta, which still seems to be on the way up. London which has JUST passed its peak, and Sweden which has just reached its peak (maybe). It's too bad that they didn't study India. Yhere you wouldhave had a confounding factor of fewer air pollution deaths and higher covid-19 deaths.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:Another gross misunderstanding of how the world works.
They're not getting all the free shit that Western cultures give to them on any given usual day because we're not producing the free shit to give them anymore.
No it's not. We've talked about this shit ad nauseam in the past and we're in agreement on it. You just forget that we used to agree about stuff.Quote:
Poor nations around the world don't get "free shit" from the USA and the EU. The reason why they're poor is because the USA and the EU have predatory relationships with them.
No shit.
But I'm sure the fact that you and I know this is going to look great on the tombstone for the mass graves of millions of people dying of hunger because the free shit train stopped immediately overnight.
There is a difference between being poor and exploited and being dead from starvation. It might not be much of a difference, but the overreaction in the Western World to The Coomph is going to make that pretty clear soon.Quote:
Why do you suppose we have bases all over the goddamn world, SIX? Do you think it's because people everywhere are grateful for all the "free shit" that we give them?
Why are you asking me these questions as if we haven't discussed this before and we aren't in agreement on it?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Did you see this reply, Sigs?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Germany and the other NATO nations, plus Japan, don't spend as much on the military because they have USA bases presumably "protecting them" from attack. But these are not the nations in danger of mass starvation, which was your concern.
SIX: They're not getting all the free shit that Western cultures give to them on any given usual day because we're not producing the free shit to give them anymore.
SIGNY:Another gross misunderstanding of how the world works.
SIX: No it's not. We've talked about this shit ad nauseam in the past and we're in agreement on it. You just forget that we used to agree about stuff.
The nations that are in danger of starvation are South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh), Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia etc), parts of the Mideast that the USA had destabilized (Syria, Iran, Iraq), all of Africa, and all of Central and South America.
WHAT "free shit" does the USA give them?
Quote:WHAT "free shit"? Show me in dollars where this "free shit" is going. Be specific.
SIGNY: Poor nations around the world don't get "free shit" from the USA and the EU. The reason why they're poor is because the USA and the EU have predatory relationships with them.
SIX: No shit. But I'm sure the fact that you and I know this is going to look great on the tombstone for the mass graves of millions of people dying of hunger because the free shit train stopped immediately overnight.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:I think the peaks look so sharp because the graphs are over a full year time span.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
A couple of comments on those graphs:
Those are legitimate graphs. Do you know how some illustrators start the vertical axis at something other than zero, to exaggerate the difference between "before" and "after"? Well, NOT HERE. The vertical axis starts at zero, and the increased death rate is as big and bad as shown: double, triple, quadruple OR MORE the usual death rate. (And no, SIX, it's not due to starvation or suicide.)
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
And I think they're interesting because they show background seasonal variation, as well as the wide variation in when cities started their outbreaks.
Something that I've been thinking about for a while is why large cities seem especially vulnerable to such rapid escalation (and perhaps deescalation), beyond a scaled-up version of smaller cities that have the same interaction patterns in a smaller footprint. Is there a density factor? Is there a very rare event that shows up better in larger cities, like perhaps the presence of super-super spreaders? And how do very large, very dense cities like Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Seoul, manage in the face of what appears to be a severe environment for outbreaks?
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Spain
March 16, 2020 lockdown
April 13, 2020 some construction and factory workers may return to work, masks recommended
May 9, 2020 preliminary date for lockdown expiration
New York
March 22, 2020 stay at home order
TBA
England
March 16, 2020 avoid all non-essential contact
March 23, 2020 lockdown
TBA
Italy
February 21, 2020 quarantine covering eleven municipalities of the province of Lodi enacted
March 8, 2020 expanded to cover much of Norther Italy, with some limits. Except for mass events and limited hours, most businesses were kept open with social distancing in place. However, people weren't permitted to enter or leave the area.
March 10, 2020 quarantine was expanded to all of Italy with travel to and from work and for necessities only allowed.
March 21, 2020 all non-essential businesses closed down
April 14, 2020 stationery shops, bookshops and children clothing's shops are allowed to open
May 4, 2020 projected time to reopen travel within municipalities
France
March 16, 2020 'strict' lockdown instituted including mandatory home confinement
May 11, 2020 projected date to ease restrictions
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