Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, August 2, 2024 09:17
VIEWED: 13031
PAGE 6 of 25
Warner bros DC fail, Disney Marvel crashing
Sound of Freedom making big sales
Taylor Swift making money
‘Five Nights At Freddy’s’ Getting Ready For Second Best Debut At The Fall Box Office With Around $40M
https://deadline.com/2023/10/five-nights-at-freddys-box-office-project
ion-1235577413/
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How many cliche tropes in Creator
Super expensive production, the movie months are competitive while the economy sucks, some paranoid are going back to cinemas now that Covid restrictions but then Biden blabs about a new variant and vaccinations, war on tv 24/7 politics and elections on tv.
Did The Creator Bomb At The Box Office? Breaking Down Its $32M Opening & Why It Matters So Much
https://screenrant.com/the-creator-movie-box-office-opening-weekend-pe
rformance-flop/
The Creator's box office performance could determine whether movie studios continue to take risks on original stories. Is it a bomb or a hit?
Why would anyone find the plot annoying, another marxist bolshevik revolution message, Soldier Lone Wolf and Cub Child Duo, confused Rambo 3 messages Terrorists Are not bad maybe good Rebels and Our Freedom Fighters and they like McDonalds and Freedom Fries, more repeating themes like the cliche GoldenChild stupidfuckingRobokid and a guy that has to protect them, America is once again at war with AI robots, time jumps flash forwards and flashbacks and cuts to five years later, nukes San Francisco and Los Angeles like Battlestar Terminator and every other AI movie, a traumatized ex-soldier who’s mourning the loss of bla bla, Chosen One magic-cave robot thing, Asia Orient robot girl, the main antagonist if its American or German it always has a British accent but no Evil Brit Alan Rickman.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Did The Creator Bomb At The Box Office? Breaking Down Its $32M Opening & Why It Matters So Much
https://screenrant.com/the-creator-movie-box-office-opening-weekend-pe
rformance-flop/
Yes. The Creator bombed at the box office.
Sure, that's easy for me to say now that it's 17 days after this article was written and it only yesterday finally made 100% of its Production Budget back worldwide, but had I been paying attention to my charts I could have answered that question the day it was asked.
It cost $80 Million to make. It grossed $32 Million Worldwide on Opening Weekend. That's 40% of its budget. How did other movies in this range do?
Quote:
34. 80 for Brady / Budget: $28,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 46%
35. Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000 / WWO: $131,000,000 / 43.7%
36. AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
37. Plane / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 40%
38. Blue Beetle / Budget: $120,000,000 / WWO: $44,000,000 / 37%
- 80 for Brady made 143% of its production budget of $28 Million.
- Indiana Jones and the Do Destiny made 127% of its production budget of $300 Million.
- AIR only made 127% of its production budget of $70 Million.
- Plane made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million.
- Blue Beetle made 108% of its production budget of $120 Million.
NOTES:
1. All of these movies at least made their production budget back.
2. None of these movies broke even using either 2.0x or 2.5x RoT.
3. Every one of these movies was a loss for the studio.
Quote:
The Creator's box office performance could determine whether movie studios continue to take risks on original stories. Is it a bomb or a hit?
The studios need to not make the mistake of learning the wrong lesson here. PEOPLE WANT NEW SHIT! They just don't want your woke ideology and Leftist agenda shoved in their faces anymore.
You already know that people are bored of your little comic book universe cash cows, and that's even more evident because movies that aren't woke in the genre are failing too. (See my glowing Flash review). Don't keep making cape flicks or re-making classics and think it's going to turn out any better for you if you just dial down the woke. It's not going to work.
Interesting note... ScreenRant is staffed by some pretty woke trash people who are going to tell you things like "Blue Beetle is doing great at the box office" for as long as they can until it got destroyed by Math and they couldn't lie about it anymore, but they were pretty brutally honest about this one's chances in that article. They also are now making the claim that 2.5x RoT is the standard these days. So that's one more movie website that is making this claim in 2023. I think I'm pretty convinced now that this should be the new rule of thumb since the Left Leaning movie sites like ScreenRant, Deadline and Variety are all seeming to make this claim now. Not good news for the Studios in 2023.
From the article Jaynez posted:
Quote:
In spite of its disappointing opening weekend, there’s still a chance that The Creator can become a moderate hit, but it’s very unlikely. The general rule of thumb is that movies need to gross 2.5 times their production budget to turn a profit after marketing costs and exhibitors’ percentages have been taken into account. This means that The Creator will have to gross somewhere in the $160-200 million range to avoid being labeled a flop. The Creator would need serious legs at the box office to make the journey from a $32.3 million opening weekend to a $200 million final figure.
$160 Million is 2.0x. $200 Million is 2.5x.
The Creator's run is hardly finished. It still grossed $575k on Cheap Seat Tuesday this week, and there's a pretty good chance it grosses over $1 Million at least one day this weekend, or will come very close to that.
But 2 weeks from no
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Warner bros DC fail, Disney Marvel crashing
It appears that The Marvels is possibly set to be the lowest earning Marvel movie yet. Audience tracking is terrible and I've heard rumor that Brie Larson is done with Carol Danvers and has no interest in ever playing the character again.
Also, it appears that by 2027 Marvel intends to find some way to bring back all of the original Avengers cast because they know that Marvel sucks without them. I don't think anybody is going to care by 2027, but it would probably make a few bucks if they can have reasonable budgets.
Warner Bros. itself is still doing great, despite the DC flops. They did have mega-hit Barbie to cover ALL of their losses this year and then some. I haven't updated my lists since September 10th, but at that point WB was in 2nd place out of all the studios in terms of money made after 2.0x RoT ($1,144,457,526) and even with the more likely 2.5x RoT they've still made $730,207,526.
In fact, even with 2.5x RoT, Warner Bros. has MADE almost $200,000,000 more than Disney has LOST in 2023.
The numbers, obviously, will be a bit different when I update the lists since it's been 5 weeks, but I can't imagine everyone's fortunes have changed all that much since. Disney hasn't even put out another big movie since my last update. I can't recall off the top of my head if WB did or not.
But yeah... DC is dead.
They need to retire comic book movies for about a decade, regroup, learn from how Marvel through Phase 3 was such a success, learn why Marvel after Phase 3 ruined the genre, and learn from DC how not to do anything.
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Sound of Freedom making big sales
Taylor Swift making money
Yeah. Sound of Freedom ended up losing badly to Talk To Me's $4.5 Million budget, but nobody was going to compete with a surprise mega-hit movie like that with such a tiny budget that made over 2,000% of it worldwide. It's number 2 now at over 1,600% of production budget worldwide and I don't think anything is going to come close to touching that this year. I'm not going to count concert movies because of their ridiculously unfair advantage to regular movies, so Taylor Swift isn't going to get first place even if the budget was only $10 Million and the total worldwide gross ends up being over $200 Million. Swifts' concert thing will be in competition only with Beyonce's concert thing.
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‘Five Nights At Freddy’s’ Getting Ready For Second Best Debut At The Fall Box Office With Around $40M
https://deadline.com/2023/10/five-nights-at-freddys-box-office-project
ion-1235577413/
I could see that. There's surprisingly deep lore to this franchise, and the kids love it.
Is it going to be any good? Who knows? Even horror movies that are trash have followings and tend to make money because of their small budgets. (See: Exorcist: Believer)
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Wokecercist: Believer cracks $90 Million on Friday night.
As of Friday night, it's at 303% of its budget. After tonight, it should have plenty to beat Meg 2: The Trench at 305%. Assuming Meg 2 was still in 20th place with going on 6 weeks without updates to the charts in the OP, it will be bumped out of the Top 20 by Believer tonight.
It's slowing down quite a bit, and next weekend sees the release of Five Nights at Freddies which is going to annihilate it, but that's the benefits of being small-to-mid budget. Even at a higher than otherwise justifiable cost of $30 Million for this boring woke turd, every $1 Million it rakes in is another 3.33% bump to the final total.
Not including whatever it's made in the last week overseas, it will end the weekend at around 313% of the budget with the Domestic weekend complete.
It would need to get over 405% to break the Top 15, which probably isn't very likely now with FNAF out next weekend, but to be more profitable than Guardians of the Galaxy 3 was, it will only need another 25% or around $7 to $8 Million, which should be no problem.
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Two posts about Killers of the Flower Moon from the Taylor Swift Concert Thing thread...
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
OCTOBER 20TH
Bruce is calling it a coin flip.
His prediction for both of them are around $32 Million over the weekend. He's giving first place to Killers of the Flower Moon with $32.9 Million and 2nd to Eras Tour with a flat $32 Million. He doesn't seem very convinced with either of those predictions though.
I still think he's way off base here...
Deadline reports this now: https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-killers-of-the-fl
ower-moon-1235579033/
Quote:
UPDATED, FRIDAY MIDDAY: AMC‘s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is currently looking to hold onto the No. 1 spot at the domestic box office with a second estimated Friday of $10.25 million, off 73% week over week, for what’s looking like a second weekend around $32 million at 3,855 theaters, -66%. That’s a very similar second-weekend decline to Disney’s 2008 concert film Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert. The running total for Eras Tour by EOD Sunday would be $130.7M.
Meanwhile, Apple Original Films and Paramount‘s 3-hour and 26-minute Martin Scorsese movie Killers of the Flower Moon is looking pretty good. Booked at 3,628 theaters, Friday is shaping up to be $9M ahead of a $22M three-day opening. Some rival distribs even have it higher.
Once again, I don't know where Bruce is getting $32 Million for Killers on opening weekend. Nobody else is coming close to that number. The highest prediction I've seen was only $24 Million.
Deadline doesn't cite its sources here, but they seem pretty confident in stating that the "estimated Friday of $10.25 Million" is correct. I don't know if AMC is saying this, and/or they have all the presale/online sale data at their fingertips, and/or a 3rd party is stating this or what.
Quote:
Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.
Even with a 66% drop, Taylor's thing still makes $31.5 Million over the weekend and I haven't even seen a Killers' prediction saying that anything close to $30 Million was in the cards.
This prediction still stands despite what Bruce has to say on the matter.
And I have to make a note to laugh out loud at the coverage both Eras Tour and Killers are getting in the Legacy Media, in particular that Deadline article.
For one, while Eras Tour still is smashing concert records, it will have done CONSIDERABLY LESS business both Domestic and Worldwide than all the Lefty media outfits had claimed it would in the months leading up to where we are now. So watching them just slather on the praise and tout the record breaking feat itself while never calling themselves out for how disappointing the REAL numbers are compared to their earlier predictions is priceless.
And they really need to stop saying things about Killers like "Meanwhile, Apple Original Films and Paramount‘s 3-hour and 26-minute Martin Scorsese movie Killers of the Flower Moon is looking pretty good. Booked at 3,628 theaters, Friday is shaping up to be $9M ahead of a $22M three-day opening."
No. There is NOTHING that looks "pretty good" about this with its $200 Million budget.
Killers is set to be the biggest flop of Martin Scorsese's storied career, and my prediction in the Hollywood thread from October 18th still stands. This movie is going to make around $70 Million less than the $200 Million Production budget, meaning that it's going to lose Paramount Pictures and Apple around $370 Million by the time it's out of the Box Office. We're talking an Indiana Jones 5 level, catastrophic event here.
And even if somehow I'm just completely wrong about this and it manages to bank $230 Million instead of only $130 Million worldwide, it still loses the studio $270 Million. There is zero chance that anybody
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I wanted to make sure that I put my thoughts on the Killers of the Flower moon in this thread so it didn't just get lost with the Taylor Swift thing in a few weeks when that fades away.
There's something really fishy going on with this movie.
Take a look at Google and see if you can find ANY publications that are calling a flop a flop here.
I found ONE. Singular. The Filmik. I've never even heard of them before. They're the only ones who are being honest about this movie.
Here's their article from October 15th:
Killers of the Flower Moon Box Office Prediction: Forecasting a Flop $35 Million Debut
https://www.thefilmik.com/killers-of-the-flower-moon-box-office-predic
tion/
Quote:
After the massive success of Universal’s ‘Oppenheimer,’ Paramount and Apple Studios are ready to release their epic drama ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ with great expectations, which will be screened in theaters on Friday[1]. The R-rated boasts a strong cast and director, including Martin Scorsese, DiCaprio, and De Niro, which is a big plus point and holds significant promise. The makers have too high expectations for the film, and these expectations have increased even more since the critics have given it the green light. But despite these advantages, perhaps it will not impress the makers at the box office.
One of the major factors is the critical response and buzz, which are very positive for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon.’ However, despite these positive factors and the presence of well-established cast and crew members, pre-ticket sales numbers are not up to par, indicating a slow start. According to industry estimates, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is projected to earn $35-40 million on its opening weekend domestically across 3500+ theaters, which is considered a disappointing debut for a big-budgeted film, especially for an R-rated film. ‘Oppenheimer’ was projected to earn $50 million and opened with $82 million, but there’s no indication that ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ will perform similarly due to a lack of quality buzz.
According to reports, Apple Studios and Paramount Pictures spent $200 million on the production of ‘Killers of the Flower Moon.’ With such a huge production budget, the recovery numbers are automatically set too high. As of now, despite receiving positive reviews and featuring a high-profile cast, the ability to recover its costs is in question as the film’s performance in both domestic and overseas markets is a disappointment. According to industry sources, the full theatrical run is projected to reach $125 million domestically and $250 million globally, which would be considered a disaster.
There is no doubt that ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is headed for a box office failure, as per early box office predictions. Not only is it a failure, but it also has the potential to become one of the biggest losses for the makers in 2023. Paramount has already faced significant failures, including ‘Mission Impossible 7,’ ‘Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves,’ and ‘Babylon.’ Another failure increases production concerns. As for Apple Studios, it would be wise to consider limiting themselves to streaming or producing smaller films, as all of their theatrical releases up to now have been unsuccessful.
However, many social media users and reports are comparing it to ‘Oppenheimer,’ which is not the right thing to do. Regardless of how brilliant ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is, the industry thrives on profitability. ‘Oppenheimer’ tops the list as one of the industry’s most successful R-rated films, while ‘Killers of the Flower Moon‘ is struggling for success. Even if the film is excellent, if the audience doesn’t want to watch it in theaters, it’s a total disappointment for the makers. But despite all of this, we can only hope that the film will avoid losses, if not turn a profit.
Impossible. It will not avoid massive financial losses. The $35 to $40 Million Domestic Opening Weekend that the one honest article about this movie being a flop predicted isn&
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Once again, I don't know where Bruce is getting $32 Million for Killers on opening weekend. Nobody else is coming close to that number. The highest prediction I've seen was only $24 Million.
...
Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.
...
This prediction still stands despite what Bruce has to say on the matter.
...
If we were to erroneously make a guess for the rest of the weekend based off of $9,400,000 on Friday night, we'd come up with a number much higher than reality and we might be saying "This thing might actually crack $30 Million this weekend if it's lucky".
It won't.
I'm going to look at Oppenheimer for the model of my prediction for the weekend here. With Thursday previews included in the Friday number, it dropped 21% on Saturday and another 12% on Sunday.
Applying those drops to Killers and we get the following:
Thursday: $2,600,000
Friday: $6,800,000
Saturday: $7,426,000 (-21% of $9,400,000)
Sunday: $6,534,880 (-12% of $7,426,000)
TOTAL: $23,360,880
That's my prediction based off of Thursday Previews and Friday's Projections, so whoever guessed $24 Million going into this weekend was pretty much spot-on.
Now... It may have actually made as much as $25 Million and change even if the projections match the above numbers come tomorrow afternoon. As I've noted before, the Studios like to low-ball projections early in a film's life as not to embarrass themselves.
I'd say that a range between $22 Million and $26 Million as the final Domestic Opening Weekend Number is a good range to allow for error in my only using Oppenheimer's 1st weekend performance as the model.
...
I'm going to give myself a little bit of cushion here, especially on the Killers movie because Paramount/Apple have an incentive to lowball the predictions. I think I'll give it to Eras Tour as well because of the fact that AMC was not in charge of projections last weekend it ended up being the only movie I can ever recall that actually had lower final numbers on opening weekend than was projected. I've heard that AMC gave the Friday night projection this week, so I'm assuming they don't want that mistake repeated.
My final predictions for top 2 this weekend:
1. Taylor Swift: Eras Tour: $27.5 Million
2. Killers of the Flower Moon: $25 Million
Still no projections for Eras Tour, but the projections for Killers Opening Weekend including Thursday previews are in and it's $23 Million even.
I probably should have just gone with my Oppenheimer model that came up with $23,360,880.
Still though, I think the number will be higher once the actual counts come in by tomorrow afternoon. They probably didn't lowball it by a full $2 Million though.
But yeah. Bruce was out of his mind when he predicted $32 Million for Killers. This movie is DOA now even if the International numbers aren't complete shit.
Taylor's Eras Tour easily wins 1st place this weekend no matter how good or bad Saturday/Sunday is compared to Friday's 70%+ dropoff, but it's not going to get anywhere near the $32.9 Million Bruce predicted either.
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Something weird is going on with Eras Tour now.
Both Bruce and Box Office Mojo are showing $31 Million for the weekend currently, both more or less matching what the Legacy Media is saying about this weekend's performance on sites such as Variety and Deadline, but they're not doing it in their traditional way.
BOM Archive: https://archive.ph/IJn7Y
The-Numbers Archive: https://archive.ph/IJn7Y
Deadline claims $32 Million:
https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-killers-of-the-fl
ower-moon-1235579033/
TheWrap claims $31 Million:
https://www.thewrap.com/taylor-swift-eras-tour-killers-flower-moon-box
-office/
So what's weird about this?
Both BOM and The-Numbers have added an additional $20 Million to their Domestic and Worldwide totals already, but neither site has put the daily projections for either Saturday or Sunday yet. I've never seen this happen before.
Frankly, I think the claim that this did $31-$32 Million based off of Friday's $10,400,000 previews and didn't do in the area of $27-$28 Million is absurd.
I wonder if any of these websites that rushed to put on that news are going to correct themselves when it didn't make what they're claiming it made.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm going to look at Oppenheimer for the model of my prediction for the weekend here. With Thursday previews included in the Friday number, it dropped 21% on Saturday and another 12% on Sunday.
Applying those drops to Killers and we get the following:
Thursday: $2,600,000
Friday: $6,800,000
Saturday: $7,426,000 (-21% of $9,400,000)
Sunday: $6,534,880 (-12% of $7,426,000)
TOTAL: $23,360,880
That's my prediction based off of Thursday Previews and Friday's Projections, so whoever guessed $24 Million going into this weekend was pretty much spot-on.
The Oppenheimer Model was just about perfect.
The verified weekend total for Killers was $23,253,655. Just $107k off.
Using Taylor Swift's first weekend to predict the 2nd weekend wasn't accurate at all. Instead of falling 10% from Friday to Saturday, it rose 27%. It did fall 28% from Saturday to Sunday, only 1% off of what I thought it would, but since it made so much more on Saturday it ended up making $33,209,039 over weekend 2, which was more than $6.5 Million above what the model said and about $5.5 Million more than my final prediction was.
Quote:
Friday: $10,400,000
Saturday: $9,360,000 (-10% of Friday)
Sunday: $6,832,800 (-27% of Saturday)
TOTAL: $26,592,800
I don't know why there was all the shady reporting with the numbers this weekend, but it does appear that I was wrong.
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