Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, August 2, 2024 09:17
VIEWED: 13031
PAGE 5 of 25
Wow.
When I was on Metacritic the other day for something, I saw that the new Exorcist movie only had a 40 something percent by critics. I figured after I saw this it was going to flop.
But it just made $2,850,000 in Thursday night previews.
$30 Million isn't that bad of a number for a production budget either, given that it's a known franchise movie. Scream VI's budget was $35 Million and it's currently 12th place on the chart for 2023.
Scream VI, however, got $5,700,000 on preview night.
Bruce thinks it will make around $20 Million this weekend. Depending on international, it should probably easily make the production budget back over the first weekend. He doesn't seem to think that it's getting good word of mouth by people who have seen it though, so
I don't think it's going to make the top 15 like I thought it might have, but it should probably pay for itself at least, unless it just drops off a cliff after opening weekend.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Well...
If you knew the ending to Exorcist: Believer like I do now, you'd be shocked that the critics didn't love it.
But a 22% at Rotten Tomatoes: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_exorcist_believer
Either woke is truly dying, or the movie was just beyond terrible.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Kids will see the movie, it's not world wide "restricted" 18+
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Rating Revealed for Final DCEU Movie
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/aquaman-lost-kingdom-rating-reveal
ed-160354224.html
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
That didn't factor into my thoughts on how the movie would do. I just always assumed it was going to get a PG or PG13 rating.
Aquaman is already a tough sell (and it was a miracle they somehow made the first one a Billion Dollar movie). If they tried going with an R rating it would have been a massive flop. R ratings are for Batman, Joker and Deadpool. Maybe when today's kids grow up they'd watch Aquaman as adults, but the adults today aren't going to be interested in Aquaman unless they're taking their kids to see it.
I really don't know how either Aquaman or The Marvels are going to do. Comic book movies have done so bad this year that I think it's a pretty safe bet to say that breaking even is a good guess, but they could make money or they could fail. I'd love to see them both fail hard, but I can't bring myself to say that they're both going to be flops.
I don't imagine I'm ever going to make a "Failure Thread" for Aquaman before it's release. I might still do that with The Marvels. That depends on if we get any proof of ultra-woke politics injected into it and/or the three lead actresses don't have a muzzle put on them and they're able to shit all over men before the movie comes out. I think the fact that the movie was trimmed down to only 1 hour and 45 minutes along with Bob Iger coming out and saying that Disney wants to "quiet the noise" means that we're not going to see a bunch of woke shit in it that was originally part of the movie, and after the Rachel Zegler thing they're probably going to be told to STFU and stay off of Twitter for the next few months.
Once opening weekend comes around I should be able to give a pretty good estimate of how they're going to do, so long as we have Production Budget numbers that we're fairly confident are based in reality.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well...
If you knew the ending to Exorcist: Believer like I do now, you'd be shocked that the critics didn't love it.
But a 22% at Rotten Tomatoes: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_exorcist_believer
Either woke is truly dying, or the movie was just beyond terrible.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
It still managed to pull in $11,910,000 on Friday. (This includes the $2,850,000 from preview night, so $9,060,000).
They count those preview Thursdays with the Opening Weekend box office though, so I'm thinking this one is going to do the $26+ Million Bruce's model predicted instead of the $20 Million he said he thought it would do.
I still don't think it's going to do that great overall because everything I've heard about it either bashes some woke content or just calls the movie boring, not scary, and a pale imitation of the first movie. And that includes the critics who gave it a 22% on Rotten Tomatoes.
It won't set any records, but it should make a little bit of money for the studio. If the budget were around $5 to $10 Million it would have done a lot better.
Saw X has already made just shy of 300% of its budget, and that's not including Saturday/Sunday and whatever internationals were since last weekend. It's already a winner, but it took a huge 70% drop from last Friday, so I doubt that it will eventually make enough money to take a spot in the Top 10.
The Nun II should make it there though. As of Friday it's got 610% of its budget back, and it only needs 35% more to knock Missing out of 10th place (About $11 Million). It could possibly have what it needs once international numbers come in after the weekend.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well...
If you knew the ending to Exorcist: Believer like I do now, you'd be shocked that the critics didn't love it.
But a 22% at Rotten Tomatoes: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_exorcist_believer
Either woke is truly dying, or the movie was just beyond terrible.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
It still managed to pull in $11,910,000 on Friday. (This includes the $2,850,000 from preview night, so $9,060,000).
They count those preview Thursdays with the Opening Weekend box office though, so I'm thinking this one is going to do the $26+ Million Bruce's model predicted instead of the $20 Million he said he thought it would do.
I still don't think it's going to do that great overall because everything I've heard about it either bashes some woke content or just calls the movie boring, not scary, and a pale imitation of the first movie. And that includes the critics who gave it a 22% on Rotten Tomatoes.
It won't set any records, but it should make a little bit of money for the studio. If the budget were around $5 to $10 Million it would have done a lot better.
Yup. $27,200,000 is what the weekend predictions from the Studio were.
Worldwide total now at just over $45 Million or 150% of the Production Budget.
It will easily make 2.0xRoT and probably shouldn't have any problems getting 2.5xRoT.
It's got a 39 from Critics on Metacritic, and a 5.4 User Score. 23% from Critics on Rotten Tomatoes and a 57% Audience Score. Like I said before, I think this one is going to sink like a stone. If not by the 2nd weekend, we should see that happen afterward. But by that point it should have already made most of the money back it needed to be profitable.
Disney take note. Even if you make a woke trash film that is boring, your chances are pretty decent you're not going to lose money if the budget is small. Especially if it's a Horror movie in 2023.
I'm sure that the Taylor Swift thing is going to hurt it next weekend. I'd imagine that except for hardcore horror aficionados, the vast majority of the audience for the Horror genre are of the same age demographic that are going to come out in droves for that one. Sure, the girls are going be the ones mostly that want to see Taylor Swift and drag their boyfriends out to see that, but they just made their girlfriends sit through a horribly boring horror flick the previous weekend so fair's fair.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
LOL...
They're now calling it the Wokesercist. I saw an early review from a small channel far before all the regulars got in and started piling on it.
It had a 68% drop from last Friday, which is terrible. Not sure how much that has to do with Taylor Swifts thing being out there and how much because the movie is just trash.
It will still make money, but I don't even know if it can crack the Top 20 for 2023 even with the small $30 Million budget. At $57 Million worldwide right now, it's only at 190% of the budget.
You people had one job.
In 2023, the year of the low-budget Horror movie, you took a 50 year old name brand and crapped on it. All you had to do was make a semi-competent, not boring flick that didn't have a bunch of political messaging in it, but you couldn't help yourselves.
Enjoy the couple of Million bucks that you make off of this one, NBC/Universal. We know that you just paid $400 Million for the Exorcist rights, so you'd better fire your diversity and inclusion department and/or keep them FAR away from this series if you ever want to have a hope of making any of that money back.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
September 8th: RE: Equalizer 3
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I've always liked Denzel Washington and I've heard a lot of good things about the Equalizer series of movies, but I'm wondering if the 3rd one is going to be a success in 2023 or not.
Equalizer 1 had a Production Budget of $55 Million and grossed $192,903,624, or around 350% of the budget. Not only that, but it was 9 years ago when people still bought a lot of physical media, so it saw another $42 Million in DVD and BluRay sales.
Equalizer 2 had a $77 Million budget and grossed $190,376,181, or around 250% of the budget. Still a winner back in 2018 with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, but not nearly as successful as the first movie with the $27 Million smaller budget. Physical media sales had started winding down by that point too, and it only saw $26 Million in DVD/BluRay sales.
Now, Bruce doesn't have the Production Budget of E3 up, but I've heard that it cost $70 Million. I'm hoping for the movie that this is the case or it's even higher than the actual budget was. Either way, they made a smart decision to not go nuts and raise the budget for E3 to $100 Million from $77 Million and it looks like they may have even dialed it back a bit.
By no means is it doing terrible, with nearly $76 Million in the bank after only 7 days and only 3 more days until more international numbers get reported... but it does have a much larger Domestic Box Office than International right now (about 2/3rds) than the first two movies had. (52% for E1 and 54% for E2).
So unless there is some delay in International reporting going on here, or unless there are still countries it's going to be shown in that it hasn't yet, this one might be in trouble. I do see that it has yet to open in Argentina, Brazil and Japan. The first movie was so old that Bruce doesn't have any in-depth International numbers for it, but those 3 territories did somewhere in the area of $10 Million for the sequel. The International list for E2 is about twice to even three times as long as they currently have up for E3 as well, so maybe the worry here is about nothing.
But it's seeing a pretty rapid drop of in Domestic Numbers compared to E2 right now, with the last 3 days this week making about a Million less per day than E2 did.
With Horror movies seeing somewhat of a resurgence in 2023 and The Nun II coming out this weekend, The Equalizer might be mortally wounded already.
Even with a $70M budget less than the predecessor, it has a big hill to climb to get to $175M to break even on 2.5x RoT. Especially since it will probably only see $1 or $2 Million in physical sales after the fact if it's lucky in 2023.
Equalizer 3 reaches the safety level of 2.5x RoT.
As of this weekend (without International figures for the previous week), the Worldwide total is $176,667,493, or 252.38% of the Production Budget.
I'm sure sighs of relief are being had all around at Sony Pictures on this one right now.
It's not going to make a lot of money for Sony, but at least it didn't lose money. They're probably going to have to think pretty long and hard about making an Equalizer 4 in the future unless they can find ways to further trim the budget.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
With 3 weeks already gone by since the last update, I can't really compare any current flicks' performances with any real degree of certainty anymore. Obviously Talk To Me is number one, with Sound of Freedom at number 2, pushing M3GAN to number 3. I'm pretty sure that the rest of the top 10 keeps the same order until Missing, which drops to number 11 and is replaced by The Nun II. I don't believe The Nun II has enough gas left in the tank to overtake Miles Morales 2 at number 9.
After that, everything up through the top 20 was already out of theaters except for Meg 2: The Trench which appears to have exited theaters last week and didn't get enough to take 19th place. Assuming that no movies that have come out since the 24th have made enough money to do more than 3 times the production budget, those would be the only changes in the top 20 right now.
I think I may try to update this next weekend. I'm a little too busy the next 2 days to try to get it done before the figures for Monday are in this week.
The Wokecercist seems to be doing pretty well overseas with over $40 Million of its $85 Million current total. It's made 283% of its production budget back so far, which already means that it's a winner. It's sitting at 21st place now if my previous statements on the top 20 are correct.
I don't imagine that Killers of the Flower Moon are going to hurt it any more than it hurts itself next weekend. Five Nights at Freddies will almost certainly put an end to it the following weekend though. Priscilla (the new Elvis-related biopic about Elvis being a pedophile) probably won't hurt anything the week after that, except possible overlap with the Killers of the Flower Moon audience.
Killers, BTW, had better make a TON of money. Why Paramount Pictures would think that spending $200 Million to make a 1920's FBI murder mystery set in Oklahoma is a good idea is anyone's guess. How the hell did they even spend that much money on this? This isn't a CGI heavy Disney cape flick. Leo must have held out for $50 Million or something.
After that we get the 1, 2, 3 punch of Then The Marvels on November 10th, the Hunger Games prequel with Rachel Zegler on the 17th and Disney's Wish on November 22nd.
I wonder how that's going to turn out. Two movies with little buzz starring the two most unlikable women currently in Hollywood (Amber Heard isn't in Hollywood anymore) in competition with each other, and then only 12 days after The Marvels is released, Disney is in direct competition with itself by releasing Wish.
--------------------------------------------------
Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't imagine that Killers of the Flower Moon are going to hurt it [The Wokecercist] any more than it hurts itself next weekend. Five Nights at Freddies will almost certainly put an end to it the following weekend though. Priscilla (the new Elvis-related biopic about Elvis being a pedophile) probably won't hurt anything the week after that, except possible overlap with the Killers of the Flower Moon audience.
Killers, BTW, had better make a TON of money. Why Paramount Pictures would think that spending $200 Million to make a 1920's FBI murder mystery set in Oklahoma is a good idea is anyone's guess. How the hell did they even spend that much money on this? This isn't a CGI heavy Disney cape flick. Leo must have held out for $50 Million or something.
DEADLINE: ‘Killers Of The Flower Moon’ Hits Tracking: Three-Hour-Plus Movie Eyes $24M Start – Box Office
https://deadline.com/2023/09/killers-of-the-flower-moon-box-office-pro
jection-1235558660/
Quote:
If Killers at its length can open to a $20M+ number, boosted by Imax, that’s commendable, despite the fact that the movie cost $200M.
No. It's not commendable. This isn't grade school in a woke school district where everybody who participates gets a trophy. This is going to be a catastrophic financial failure.
Let's double the Domestic Prediction of $24 Million and then round up to $50 Million Worldwide. (I think that's EXTREMELY generous of me to do here given the subject matter and how little most people outside of America are going to care about a 1920's FBI drama centered in Oklahoma).
$50 Million Worldwide on opening weekend would be just 25% of the massive production budget, and if it only grosses $24 Million domestic, it's not likely to come close to $50 Million Worldwide in reality.
How did other movies that only grossed 15-30% of their production budget fare by the end of their runs?
Well here's the list from this year:
39. 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
40. Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
41. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Budget: $30,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 23%
42. Strays / Budget: $46,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 22%
43. Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
44. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 19%
45. Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%
And how did they do?
- 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million.
- Elemental only made 246% of it's production budget of $200 Million.
- Are You There God? made 70% of its production budget of $30 Million.
- Strays only made 76% of its production budget of $46 Million.
- Haunted Mansion made 73% of its production budget of $158 Million.
- Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken made 66% of its production budget of $70 Million.
- Magic Mike's LD only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million.
NOTES:
1. 4 of those 7 movies grossed only 3/4 of their Production Budgets or less.
2. 6 of those 7 movies failed to gross 2 times their PB and break even on the 2.0x RoT.
3. 7 of those 7 movies failed to gross 2.5 times their PB and break even on the 2.5x RoT.
Only one of those movies, Elemental, came back from a horrible opening weekend and, best case scenario, didn't lose money for their studio. None of them, including Elemental, made it worthwhile to even make the movie in the first place.
I've got nothing against this movie. I'm not itching to see it fail. But it will. Why the hell did it cost as much to make as a Marvel movie and almost twice as much as 2 of the 3 DC movies that came out this year? This should have been a $50 Million movie. At the very most, they shouldn't have spent one more dime that Denzel's Equalizer 3 which cost $70 Million to make.
The biggest question raised by the ‘Killers of the Flower Moon
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME