Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, August 2, 2024 09:17
VIEWED: 13031
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I said in one of the other threads that Oppenheimer was never going to make a Billion dollars.
That's still true. It's pretty much run out of gas at $853 Million, but it's probably going to do over $900 Million pretty easily, which was a lot more than I would have given it credit for a month ago when I said it wasn't going to hit $1 Billion.
I'm going to say that 2023 is the year of movies that probably have no business being at the top of the Worldwide Box Office list. Two movies based on toys and video games with the top two spots and an allegedly highly fictionalized biopic about a topic most people who went to see it didn't even ever hear the name of the titular character before the Barbieheimer meme was a thing.
There are only two comic book properties in the top 10 this year at number 4 and number 6... One of them underperformed and the other one was was a cartoon. The only other comic book movie coming out this year (if it doesn't get pushed back to 2024) is The Marvels, which probably won't make the top 10.
Two of the top 10 flicks are Chinese movies.
Fast X is fifth place, but after Production and Marketing it only actually grossed the studio around $35 Million; possibly actually losing up to $160 Million if the 2.5x RoT applies. The same story more or less with The Little Mermaid in 9th place, which made Disney $61 Million but could have actually lost Disney up to $64 Million with the 2.5x RoT.
Mission Impossible 7 rounds out the list at number 10, but each day that passes makes it look more and more like it's a box office flop because of its monstrous $295 Million budget that it's still $30 Million away from doubling.
It's been a wild year so far.
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We still haven't gotten reconciled lists for the weekend. Some movies are still showing projections.
If they're not going to do it, I'm not going to drive myself crazy with it.
I may just do them tomorrow.
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08/28/2023 Lists.
I'm going to do the same thing in here as I did with the Disney thread and keep all the current numbers in the 1st post, while just quoting the old lists every week before I update them.
The Description for what these lists are will stay with last week's post that I'm quoting here. Once the year is over I'll add something back, but for now I want it to just have the information as it comes.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
These are lists I've been updating weekly for going on 2 months now in the Sound of Freedom Thread, but I felt that they deserve their own thread now. The Big Budget Hollywood Movie is Dead.
As you can see from List 3, after nearly $1 Billion in movie losses so far this year on films that have completed their Domestic Box Office run in 2023, Hollywood has only seen a $450k profit overall and it's almost September. And this is when you use the 2.0x Rule of Thumb stating a movie needs to make twice its Production Budget just to break even. There is plenty of evidence out there now that the actual Rule of Thumb is at least 2.5 times in 2023, including an article by Variety that said Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania lost Tens of Millions of Dollars for Disney when I had it as a $60 Million Plus Winner, and the fact that the producers of Barbie came out and said that the Marketing Budget for the movie was $150 Million, which was $5 Million more than the Production Budget was. After theater takes, it is likely that Barbie needed 3 Times the Production Budget to break even (or $435 Million).
Granted, the wins from both of the top earners of 2023 have not been taken into account yet, so they will be getting a nice, big $2 Billion Plus bump when they exit the theaters, but there are a whole lot of big-money losers that are still showing in theaters that haven't been taken into account either, and once the year is over I will be updating to show the 2.5x Rule of Thumb as well which paints a much darker picture for the industry overall.
This will be the spot that I use to update these lists going forward. I will still put the daily lists in the Sound of Freedom thread.
08/28/2022 LISTS:
LIST 1: WORLDWIDE OPENING VS. PRODUCTION BUDGET
As of 08/28/2023, this list includes Worldwide Opening Weekend and percentage of Production Budget made on opening weekend for all American made films currently in the global top 80 that had Production Budget info available.
The only new addition this week is Gran Turismo.
1. Insidious: The Red Door / Budget: $16,000,000 / WWO: $64,000,000 / 400%
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $377,000,000 / 377%
3. M3GAN / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: $45,000,000 / 375%
4. Sound of Freedom / Budget: $14,000,000 / WWO: $42,000,000 / 300%
5. Barbie / Budget: $145,000,000 / WWO: $356,000,000 / 246%
6. Talk to me / Budget: $4,500,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 222%
7. Evil Dead Rise / Budget: $19,000,000 / WWO: $40,000,000 / 210%
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $209,000,000 / 209%
9. The Pope's Exorcist / Budget: $18,000,000 / WWO: $36,500,000 / 203%
10. Scream VI / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $67,000,000 / 191%
11. Oppenheimer / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $180,000,000 / 180%
12. John Wick: Chapter 4 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $138,000,000 / 138%
13. Creed III / Budget: $75,000,000 / WWO: $100,000,000 / 133%
14. Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $250,000,000 / 125%
15. The Blackening / Budget: $5,000,000 / WWO: $6,000,000 / 120%
16. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $290,000,000 / 116%
17. Meg 2: The Trench / Budget: $129,000,000 / WWO: $142,000,000 / 110%
18. Knock at the Cabin / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $21,000,000 / 105%
19. Jesus Revolution / Budget: $15,000,000 / WWO: $15,000,000 / 100%
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NOTES ON 09/05/2023:
Miles Morales 2 exited cinemas last weekend and now takes its place as the highest money maker of 2023 so far using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb and subtracting that from the final worldwide take for a final $486,760,673 2.0xRoT profit. This number is likely to fluctuate within a few million for the next month or two while everything is reconciled.
It wasn't even close. It took 1st place from Guardians of the Galaxy 3, which had been number one for most of the year with $142 Million less than Miles Morales 2 made.
And with that, the surplus money that MM2 just made has more than doubled the $450 Million profit that Hollywood had been floundering with on the movies that finished their run, bringing it close to its first billion in profit... Needing 243 days to get there.
TOTAL GAINS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$1,876,507,733
TOTAL LOSSES ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: -$939,513,155
TOTAL GAIN/LOSS ON BOX OFFICE FINISHES 2023: +$936,994,578
Now... We've still got some real sinkers coming up for retirement that will eat away at that number too, but MM2's contribution should easily ensure that along with Barbie and SMB we don't get to witness Hollywood actually lose money in 2023.
However... this is all using 2.0xRoT, with 2.5xRoT being much more likely in 2023. Hollywood should still turn a profit once I calculate all of those numbers, but I don't imagine that Hollywood in general is very happy right now. Some studios are probably very happy with the results so far though. I do want to do a studio by studio breakdown for the year once everything wraps up.
Meanwhile, as much as it pains me to do it, I've moved MI7 from the "Likely Eventual Winners" on List 4 to the list of movies likely to never break even. $295 Million for the budget was a huge mistake, and even Tom Cruise can't pull in over a billion on every movie he does.
My one hope here is that since the two films were made together they didn't split the budget evenly between the two of them and we find out next year when Part II releases that they only had $100 Million on that budget and it becomes a pretty big winner. But if they actually spent $295 Million on each part, I think it's probably safe to say that's the last time we're ever going to see Tom Cruise playing Ethan Hunt.
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How about that...
Super Mario Bros. is FINALLY retired from the box office.
They still managed to keep the lights on for The Little Mermaid, Elemental and Indy 5 though.
They made $18, $19, and $63 per theater on Wednesday.
How embarrassing for them. 
I told you dumb shits that it was a stupid idea to raise the theaters for Elemental to 2,155 this weekend. Then you went right ahead and raised it to 4,080 per theater on Sunday!!!! Stupid. And not a huge embarrassment for you.
Indy 5 loses 36 theaters and will be showing in an even 100.
The Little mermaid loses 206 theaters and will be showing in only 45.
Elemental loses 1,445 (they're not including all those extra Sunday theaters that got it up to 4,080 here) and it will be somehow inexplicably showing in 710 theaters.
Sound of Freedom is still in 710 theaters this week. That's the first time in 3 weeks that Bruce remembered to put it on the theater count list.
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Oh...
I don't really care about them not retiring movies when they should anymore now. I now have a way to track all of this stuff very easily daily if I wanted to. Not only the movies down to the exact dollar amount, but I can track how much each studio has spent on production budgets in total, how much their movies have grossed in total, and how much money they've made or lost on all of their movies using both the 2.0x and 2.5x Rule of Thumb.
Disney's lost the most money this year by far, but it's not the worst studio percentage-wise, believe it or not. Hell... if you don't include the $170 Million it threw away on Peter Pan and Wendy, it's actually a slight winner with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, and there are 3 studios that lose on either RoT which are beneath Disney percentage-wise. We do count Peter Pan and Wendy though, so there are 4 losing studios in 2023 so far.
Universal is Top Dawg so far in 2023, and it's not even close.
Sure... It put out this years biggest box office flop by far with Renfield, but it also put out M3GAN, Super Mario Bros and Oppenheimer to name a few.
Warner Bros. is probably crying right now. It's got Barbie and some other minor winners, but with the 2.5 RoT after three Comic Book movie flops in a row, it's sitting at only around $500 Million profit for the year (if memory serves). And we all know that Barbie specifically had to make more than 2.5x too since they came out and bragged that their marketing budget was $150 Million after admitting they actually spent $145 Million to produce the damn thing. They're probably more like $300 Million in the black for 2023.
A24 is the winner by percentage with Talk To Me being the only movie I'm tracking.
Angel Studios is 2nd place by percentage with Sound of Freedom being the only movie I'm tracking.
I know for sure AS put out at least one other flick this year. I'm pretty sure that A24 did as well. They're just not on my lists because they're not in the top 100 grossing films of 2023. Maybe I'll add more as time goes on.
Not sure when I'm going to actually update these lists on this website anymore, but I will get around to it eventually. The amount of new data I have at my fingertips with this is pretty astounding and I do look forward to sharing it with all of you.
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I've always liked Denzel Washington and I've heard a lot of good things about the Equalizer series of movies, but I'm wondering if the 3rd one is going to be a success in 2023 or not.
Equalizer 1 had a Production Budget of $55 Million and grossed $192,903,624, or around 350% of the budget. Not only that, but it was 9 years ago when people still bought a lot of physical media, so it saw another $42 Million in DVD and BluRay sales.
Equalizer 2 had a $77 Million budget and grossed $190,376,181, or around 250% of the budget. Still a winner back in 2018 with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, but not nearly as successful as the first movie with the $27 Million smaller budget. Physical media sales had started winding down by that point too, and it only saw $26 Million in DVD/BluRay sales.
Now, Bruce doesn't have the Production Budget of E3 up, but I've heard that it cost $70 Million. I'm hoping for the movie that this is the case or it's even higher than the actual budget was. Either way, they made a smart decision to not go nuts and raise the budget for E3 to $100 Million from $77 Million and it looks like they may have even dialed it back a bit.
By no means is it doing terrible, with nearly $76 Million in the bank after only 7 days and only 3 more days until more international numbers get reported... but it does have a much larger Domestic Box Office than International right now (about 2/3rds) than the first two movies had. (52% for E1 and 54% for E2).
So unless there is some delay in International reporting going on here, or unless there are still countries it's going to be shown in that it hasn't yet, this one might be in trouble. I do see that it has yet to open in Argentina, Brazil and Japan. The first movie was so old that Bruce doesn't have any in-depth International numbers for it, but those 3 territories did somewhere in the area of $10 Million for the sequel. The International list for E2 is about twice to even three times as long as they currently have up for E3 as well, so maybe the worry here is about nothing.
But it's seeing a pretty rapid drop of in Domestic Numbers compared to E2 right now, with the last 3 days this week making about a Million less per day than E2 did.
With Horror movies seeing somewhat of a resurgence in 2023 and The Nun II coming out this weekend, The Equalizer might be mortally wounded already.
Even with a $70M budget less than the predecessor, it has a big hill to climb to get to $175M to break even on 2.5x RoT. Especially since it will probably only see $1 or $2 Million in physical sales after the fact if it's lucky in 2023.
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So...
With huge updates how I track this info making the process much easier and more accurate than it was before, my biggest problem is getting the information up here. Nothing I've done is easily transferable to this Web 1.0 site, and it's going to jibe at all with my old tables here.
I think, at least for now, I'm going to completely abandon Lists 3 and 4.
List 3 was the list where I kept track of how much Hollywood has collectively Made and Lost on movies once they ended their theatrical runs. I don't need to do this anymore. I now have an up to the minute figure on this not only for Hollywood in general, but for every individual studio that had a movie in the Top 80 as well. And I also have those figures for both the 2.0x and 2.5x Rule of Thumb. And instead of having to wait for a movie to end its run, it calculates every movie I've added to the list with up to date figures regardless of whether or not it is finished in the theaters.
So I won't be abandoning List 3 really, just replacing it with something more concise and much more accurate to the minute than waiting for movies to end their runs.
As for List 4 was just a rough gusstimate of how many days a movie took to break even worldwide. It was an afterthought and as I stated when I made it, it is the least scientific of all the lists. It also proved to be the most time-consuming list to maintain. Though I found this information interesting at the time, I've grown bored with maintaining it and I'm not even sure if anybody else cared at all.
I may try to find a way to program that information to be updated with the parameters I set for List 4 to make the data available, but for now I'm not going to put the work into that. If I don't do anything with it in future record-keeping, I may choose to go back to it one last time after the year is over and all the 2023 films have left the box office, just to have closure on it.
I'm not sure how I'm going to update Lists 1 and 2 here yet, but I'll be playing around with it today, so if you see anything weird in here, that's what's going on. I'm still not sure if I'm going to be updating this every week going forward. It all depends on how easily I can transfer the information over.
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2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS (MOVIES)
By % of WORLDWIDE GROSS / PRODUCTION BUDGET
00000000000000000000| PRODUCTION0| WORLDWIDE0000|% OVER|2.0x RoT000000|2.5x RoT000000|FINAL|
Rnk|MOVIE TITLE00000| BUDGET00000| GROSS00000000|BUDGET|PROFIT/LOSS000|PROFIT/LOSS000|DATE0|STUDIO000|
001|M3GAN 0000000000|0$12,000,000|00$181,012,024|1,508%|00$157,012,024|00$151,012,024|03/16|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002|Sound of Freedom|0$14,500,000|00$210,065,799|1,449%|00$181,065,799|00$173,815,799|00000|ANGEL STU|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003|Talk To Me000000|00$4,500,000|000$63,071,928|1,402%|000$54,071,928|000$51,821,928|00000|A24000000|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004|Super Mario Bros|$100,000,000|$1,359,687,777|1,360%|$1,159,687,777|$1,109,687,777|00000|UNIVERSAL|
000000000000000000000---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005|Insidious: TRD00|0$16,000,000|00$186,256,309
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Holy balls this is a pain in the ass...
It won't be bad after I set it up, but it will still require a good deal of manual work going forward when I've got everything automated otherwise.
I think I'm just going to do this and the Studio/Hollywood numbers.
I'll probably abandon List 1 for opening weekend too. I can't see going through all this work essentially twice for a table that really doesn't matter in the end.
I'm taking a break from it now. I'll get to finishing it. Those numbers are all through Sunday and aren't going anywhere until next Monday anyhow.
Oh, and 15 entries in and we haven't seen Disney yet.
SPOILER ALERT: Disney doesn't show up until 18.
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