Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers

So I took the time to update the numbers today.

I'm sorry to announce that in the future this will probably be a 1 time per month maximum thing going forward.

It took me just 5 minutes shy of 2 hours to update these tables. And that was only adding 3 new movies to boot. There really is no easy way to transfer all of these numbers as well as take all the time to verify their accuracy and that I didn't miss any of the cells. Try "Reply With Quote" on my table and just look at the insane mess I have to deal with here if you're wondering why it takes so long.

Anyhow...

Kind of crazy seeing how the studios jumped around from just two weeks ago. One movie can just make or break you for sure.


To note, although I don't show it in the graph, even though Walt Disney jumped up to number 5 on the profitability list with RoT 2.0x, once you add in the $170 Million production budget of Peter Pan and Wendy's direct-to-Disney+ decision, it falls all the way back down to number 11 on the list. (It stood at #7 and #12 on the list 2 weeks ago when I first put the new lists up).

If you've heard the rumors that Disney simply can't cancel and shelve the Snow White live action release next year, this is why. It's rumored that movie cost over $300 Million to make now with reshoots, and even if it destroys part of their Brand they're in far too deep now to do what Warner Bros. did when they shelved the $90 Million Batgirl movie.

OPPS!



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Movies have been dying a while now, it probably peaked 2018 and some other big hits continue into 2019 with Avengers End Game

Fallout from the writers strike might continue a while, 2024 still poor?

There will be Left vs Right and Conservative vs Liberal political silly season on tv, sometimes movies do worse during election years.

NOTIFY: N  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

I don't hear any hype about any movies coming out next year.

Nobody is excited about Marvel. Is Deadpool 3 next year or 2025?

Everybody can't wait for Snow White to come out and bomb hard.

The only other movie I'm even aware of that's coming out next year is MI7 Part 2, and after the under-performance of the first one I don't think that there's a ton of excitement for it. I'm hoping for their sake they put a bulk of their production budget for the 2 parts with the first one for tax purposes and the 2nd part didn't cost another $290 Million to make or they're screwed and the Mission Impossible franchise is dead.



Wait... No. I'm aware of one other movie that's coming out next year.

Borderlands by Lionsgate. I noticed this a few weeks back when I was looking for something else at The-Numbers. It's based off of the extremely popular video game franchise, although I think that rather than strike while the iron was hot they decided to put this thing out there several years too late. Maybe Covidmania is to blame for that.

It looks like they've diversified the cast for "modern audiences", but I know little more than that at this point. No word on production budget or if it's ultra-woke on top of the casting. I only ever played the first Borderlands, but it's one of my favorite games of all time. There's plenty of story to work with, so hopefully the people charged with making the flick actually played them.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

I actually didn't even take the time to bother updating the lists on my end this weekend. The whole Hollywood topic has just become rather boring over the last month or so after Summer "Blockbuster" season ended, and international reporting has become so bad that you can't really even keep up with or even make any educated guesses about what a film's final numbers are going to be anymore.

With all of that going on, and no movies to root for, either failing or succeeding, I've just temporarily lost interest in the topic.

It might not be next week. I really don't care about a new Exorist movie coming out in 2023 other than seeing if it continues 2023's trend of rewarding low-to-mid budget horror movies (I'm assuming it's mid-budget). I probably won't show any interest at all until the following weekend when the Taylor Swift concert thing gets released, just because of the novelty of it. (FULL DISCLAIMER: I'm rooting for that one to fail).

Five Nights at Freddy's could be fun when it releases on October 27th. I've never played the game myself but I've seen other people play games from the series and seen videos on the surprising amount of lore behind it. I loved Nicholas Cage's Willy's Wonderland as a guilty pleasure (I think that was what it was called).

But I don't think that my interest in this topic is really going to come back until The Marvels releases on November 10th, with the Rachel Zegler lead Hunger Games prequel coming out the following week... And then Disney's final movie for the year, Wish, coming out the week after that.

I have made a note that when I next update my lists next week I'll have to add Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, The Creator and Saw X, on top of whatever new releases are coming out.




Notable things that have happened this week:

1. Talk To Me gets a massive $15 Million international bump on BoxOfficeMojo making it the undisputed winner of Worldwide Gross vs. Production Budget at a staggering 1,956%. I can't imagine anything yet to come out coming close to touching that number. Congrats to A24 and everybody involved in this production on this win.

2. The Nun II rose from 531% of Production Budget to 608% since last weekend. It's notably slowing down now, but it only needs 37% more to beat Missing and make the Top 10 list for 2023 despite it's $38.5 Million Production Budget. I think it should be able to reach the finish line there pretty easily, possibly boosted by Halloween coming up soon. It only needs around $15 Million more to do it.

If The Nun II manages to make that $15 Million, then 5 of the top 10 movies of 2023 will be from the Horror genre. Either way, 7 of the top 15 already are, and October only just started.

3. Saw X has a budget of $13 Million. In under a week it's already made 238% of that budget back. It is no doubt going to be a profitable film, but I don't know if it's going to make the $103 Million that Jigsaw made or not. You could never get me to sit through 5 minutes of any movie in this franchise, personally, but this is notable because it's the first Horror wide release of October and if it can reach $90 Million worldwide it would displace Miles Morales II to also make the Top 10.

Depending on how well the Nun II does in the end, it might not have to pull off that feat and could end up bumping The Nun II down to 11th place instead. Any one of those three could drop out of the Top 10 when the final numbers for Nun II and Saw X come in since they're all probably going to be pretty close to each other and space in the Top 10 is getting rather crowded this late into the year. Plus, there's still 3 more months to go in the year, so none of them are guaranteed a Top 10 spot by the end anyhow.

Scream IV is currently in 12th place and is the lowest ranking Horror movie of 2023 in the Top 15 currently. So Saw X will not knock it out of the top 15 and in a week or two we should see 8 of the top 15 performin

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Duck Dynasty? The Blind is a 2023 American Christian biographical drama film

Expend4bles seems like it will flop

PAW Patrol The Mighty Movie seems to be doing ok in Asia, Latin America and Europe, Paramount Pictures under Nickelodeon Movies, its a bunch of computer cartoon dogs flying around, voice cast includes Mckenna Grace , Taraji P. Henson, Marsai Martin, Christian Convery, Kim Kardashian, Chris Rock, Lil Rel Howery, Serena Williams, North West, Saint West, James Marsden, Kristen Bell.
It cost $30 million to make.

Japan is not know for big box office but they are starting to watch their own films again, Don't Call it Mystery The Movie

'Barbie' is still making money, Oppenheimer still makes money but not much

'Paw Patrol' does look like a kids Cartoon and not one of these hyper-real CGI things

NOTIFY: N  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

'Expend4bles' opens with epic flop

https://japantoday.com/category/entertainment/%27expend4bles%27-opens-
with-epic-flop-while-%E2%80%98nun-2%E2%80%99-claims-top-spot-again-at-the-box-office

predicted

Expend4bles to Flop at the Box Office

NOTIFY: N  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Yeah. I called Expend4bles a flop 3 days after release. I was ready to call it a flop after its first Thursday Preview night was less than a Million bucks, but when I looked back on the first 3 they all did under a million too (although with inflation they all probably did up to twice that since it was so long since the last one came out).

Half of the money it's made is from China, where it was released 1 week earlier than in the US. After 3 weekends and 2 weeks (17 days), it had already grossed $21 Million in China. We're already 13 days into its US release and it only has $14 Million. This This weekend it would be lucky to make another $1.5 Million in the states, so laughably, it will not have made as much here as it made in China when its done.

I can't make a real guess what it will make by the time it's out of theaters worldwide because international reporting is so shit right now, but I'm going to make a bold claim and say that it won't even make enough money to get it's $100 Million production budget back, meaning that it's going to end up costing Lionsgate anywhere from $100 to $180 Million when it's out of theaters.



I also mentioned my concerns early on that Equalizer 3 might not be successful. On a $70 Million budget, it has managed to make $159 Million. So using the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, it has already made $19 Million, but using 2.5x Rule of Thumb it still has $16 Million to go. Once again, because of the state of international reporting I can't really say if it's going to do this or not. The Domestic takes going forward won't get it where it needs to be. It will likely only make about $1.6 Million this weekend and next week it will be making around $120k per day. Either way, I wouldn't expect an Equalizer 4 in the future.

Quote:

---

PAW Patrol The Mighty Movie seems to be doing ok in Asia, Latin America and Europe, Paramount Pictures under Nickelodeon Movies, its a bunch of computer cartoon dogs flying around, voice cast includes Mckenna Grace , Taraji P. Henson, Marsai Martin, Christian Convery, Kim Kardashian, Chris Rock, Lil Rel Howery, Serena Williams, North West, Saint West, James Marsden, Kristen Bell.
It cost $30 million to make.

'Paw Patrol' does look like a kids Cartoon and not one of these hyper-real CGI things

---

Wow. Only $30 Million? (I'm a bit behind on the Box Office right now).

How the hell did they manage that budget? Disney had better be taking some notes here. It was just announced yesterday that it actually gained theaters and is now in the most theaters any movie has been in since Barbie released.

It's got $49 Million worldwide in 6 days. Even though it looks like its got weak legs, and the money it made during its first week after opening weekend seems abnormally low, this one shouldn't have any problems being a success with a budget that small.

Quote:

---

Japan is not know for big box office but they are starting to watch their own films again, Don't Call it Mystery The Movie

---

I think competition is great for the industry. Especially when ESG leaked into Hollywood and turned most of their offerings to shit. If you look at the Top Worldwide Grossing movies for 2023, 2 of the Top 10 are from China. 6 of the Top 20 are from China. 9 of the Top 30 are from China. 13 of the Top 40 are from China. 15 of the Top 50 are from China. 21 of the Top 60 are from China. 24 of the Top 70 are from China. 29 of the Top 80 are from China. 33 of the Top 90 are from China. 36 of the Top 100 are from China.

More than 1/3rd of the Top 100 Worldwide Grossing movies are from China in 2023.

Talk To Me was made in the UK. (Had I realized this, I probably wouldn't have put it on my list of WW Gross vs. Production Budget race, but to remove it now on this technicality after covering that for so long would seem rather disingenuous).

I know there are a few Bollywood movies in there, as well as a few Japanese movies too.

Quote:

---

'Barbie' is still m

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME