new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
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1KIKI

Saturday, February 22, 2020 12:39 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Oh, toilet paper. Don't forget the toilet paper in your emergency kit. A pack of N95 masks and a box of disposable gloves and a pump-bottle of hand sanitizer, shampoo, toothpaste, and a month's worth of whatever medication you're taking.

Unfortunately for us, dear daughter can't eat beans and dear hubby can't eat too much starch, so I will have to think up another emergency kit for the family.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

Hi Signy. I guess I accidentally answered your question in your 'In the garden and RAIN!!!' thread. I made some suggestions there; so here's the link: http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58882&mid=1
094532#1094532

1KIKI

Sunday, February 23, 2020 1:13 AM

Hey JSF - I'm posting this because it does somewhat address a question of yours I didn't find an answer for originally:

"This Ship Is Out Of Control" - NYT Exposes Japan's "Disastrous" Missteps In Botched "Diamond Princess" Quarantine

Japanese officials have admitted that at least 23 patients released from the Diamond Princess were never tested for COVID-19.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, February 24, 2020 12:50 AM

I heard news say 35 confirmed cases in America, 18 were from Cruise Ship.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, February 24, 2020 1:05 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Just a comment: I have read of people being reinfected literally within a week or being cured. Maybe it doesn't happen very often, but that does kind of imply that vaccines might not be very successful.

I assume the CDC is pursuing that kind of info more carefully than I can, and if that's the case then they would be focusing on antivirals, not vaccines. We might be able to tell what's going on by watching whether CDC zigs, or zags.

Just trying to read the tea leaves. Extracting maximum info from controlled press is a necessary art form. For example, they were WAAAY more forthcoming about the Zika virus, which is kind of an inverse indication how worried they are now, when the info comes out as clipped mixed messages: There's nothing to worry about and we're taking heroic measures!

Some of this sounds like BS to me, or maybe I just don't understand some things.

There is not yet any test which definitively proves that somebody does not have the coronavirus. Right? Meaning, if you have a person in front of the doctors, in the lab, in the emergency room, or anyplace you choose, you cannot ascertain at that moment for certain that the person does not have the virus. You can keep testing for days, and maybe they will fail the test at some point, but at the moment, you cannot know. Maybe biopsy or dissection would work.

There are claimed to be no vaccines or medications to cure the illness. Apparently, nobody is able to create antibodies for this virus.
So how are patients being treated? Just treating the symptoms?

Mention was made of the virus responding to HIV medications, but then I heard no further word.

So, how are patients being "cured" and then released. If you cannot prove that they do not have the virus, then how can you prove that they "no longer" have the virus?
If the virus dropped to undetectable levels, but the patient still carries it, how can you claim "reinfected" later? And during this person's "cured" stage, they are carriers in the pubic, and exposing it to the general population, right?

I understand that nobody in America has died from the virus, so I don't want to be pessimistic, but I don't think folks have a good handle on it at this point.

1KIKI

Monday, February 24, 2020 1:50 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Some of this sounds like BS to me, or maybe I just don't understand some things.

There is not yet any test which definitively proves that somebody does not have the coronavirus. Right?

Right.

Quote:
Meaning, if you have a person in front of the doctors, in the lab, in the emergency room, or anyplace you choose, you cannot ascertain at that moment for certain that the person does not have the virus. You can keep testing for days, and maybe they will fail the test at some point, but at the moment, you cannot know.

IMO, a positive test is meaningful, a negative test isn't. So, I agree with you.

Quote:
Maybe biopsy or dissection would work.

I've wondered if a postmortem test on lung tissue would be reliably meaningful. If so, a biopsy of lung tissue on live patients might be more definitive than the swabs they're going now.

Quote:
There are claimed to be no vaccines or medications to cure the illness.

So far, you're correct. There are none.

Quote:
Apparently, nobody is able to create antibodies for this virus.

It's hard to say since I haven't seen anybody testing for antibodies. There might not even be a test yet. I think though that they could create one. The presence of antibodies in the blood has generically been a staple test to see if there's been a previous infection - like for HepB - for decades. But even if people create antibodies that you can detect, the caveat is that they might not be protective, very similar to HIV. (You can detect HIV infection through antibodies, but those antibodies don't defeat HIV or stop its progression or transfer of infection.)

Quote:
So how are patients being treated? Just treating the symptoms?

Yes. It's called 'supportive therapy' - being hydrated usually by IV, having the fever controlled, being put on a ventilator, etc

Quote:
Mention was made of the virus responding to HIV medications, but then I heard no further word.

There are many trials of existing anti-virals, including HIV anti-virals in combination with influenza anti-virals, BUT: China has not been forthcoming with viral cultures (especially to Russia, which has an influenza anti-viral that's been effective against - I forget but something like - 15 influenza viruses); AND: either they don't have preliminary results yet or the results are a bust so far ETA: Or news is being suppressed. And there may be other possibilities besides those.

Quote:
So, how are patients being "cured" and then released. If you cannot prove that they do not have the virus, then how can you prove that they "no longer" have the virus?

No symptoms, clear chest X-rays, and 2 negative tests 24 hours apart after testing positive are the recommended criteria, I believe.

Quote:
If the virus dropped to undetectable levels, but the patient still carries it, how can you claim "reinfected" later? And during this person's "cured" stage, they are carriers in the pubic, and exposing it to the general population, right?

It's a rough and ready determination; and possibly.

Quote:
I understand that nobody in America has died from the virus, so I don't want to be pessimistic, but I don't think folks have a good handle on it at this point.

No, nobody has a good handle on it, imo. As for whether or not anyone in the US had died from it ... my puzzlement is - how would we know? It's not a normal post-mortem test.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, February 24, 2020 2:13 AM

I also noticed mention that a China scientist stole the coronavirus from the Canada BSL4 Lab he was working at, and then took it to Wuhan.

I realize this may have been a red herring, but I have not seen mention of the genome being compared to Canada samples from their lab, and I wonder if this really was the source immediately prior to Wuhan. Maybe Canada borrowed it from US?

It just seems preposterous that bumbling imbeciles in China could have progressed viral splicing on their own when they have no clue how to contain or control viral safety measures, protocols. Chinese theft seems much more believable. Many companies are suffering theft of their inventions, in place like Mexico, which are paid by China, and then copies of their machines show up months later at Trade Shows and conventions - even tho the Chinese cannot conjure how to make the equipment work. Chinese are good at theft, but bumbling incompetents at technology or getting anything to work.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, February 24, 2020 2:17 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Some of this sounds like BS to me, or maybe I just don't understand some things.

There is not yet any test which definitively proves that somebody does not have the coronavirus. Right?
Right.
Quote:
Meaning, if you have a person in front of the doctors, in the lab, in the emergency room, or anyplace you choose, you cannot ascertain at that moment for certain that the person does not have the virus. You can keep testing for days, and maybe they will fail the test at some point, but at the moment, you cannot know.
IMO, a positive test is meaningful, a negative test isn't. So, I agree with you.
Quote:
Maybe biopsy or dissection would work.
I've wondered if a postmortem test on lung tissue would be reliably meaningful. If so, a biopsy of lung tissue on live patients might be more definitive than the swabs they're going now.
Quote:
There are claimed to be no vaccines or medications to cure the illness.
So far, you're correct. There are none.
Quote:
Apparently, nobody is able to create antibodies for this virus.
It's hard to say since I haven't seen anybody testing for antibodies. There might not even be a test yet. I think though that they could create one. The presence of antibodies in the blood has generically been a staple test to see if there's been a previous infection - like for HepB - for decades. But even if people create antibodies that you can detect, the caveat is that they might not be protective, very similar to HIV. (You can detect HIV infection through antibodies, but those antibodies don't defeat HIV or stop its progression or transfer of infection.)
Quote:
So how are patients being treated? Just treating the symptoms?
Yes. It's called 'supportive therapy' - being hydrated usually by IV, having the fever controlled, being put on a ventilator, etc
Quote:
Mention was made of the virus responding to HIV medications, but then I heard no further word.
There are many trials of existing anti-virals, including HIV anti-virals in combination with influenza anti-virals, BUT: China has not been forthcoming with viral cultures (especially to Russia, which has an influenza anti-viral that's been effective against - I forget but something like - 15 influenza viruses); AND: either they don't have preliminary results yet or the results are a bust so far.
Quote:
So, how are patients being "cured" and then released. If you cannot prove that they do not have the virus, then how can you prove that they "no longer" have the virus?
No symptoms, clear chest X-rays, and 2 negative tests 24 hours apart after testing positive are the recommended criteria, I believe.
Quote:
If the virus dropped to undetectable levels, but the patient still carries it, how can you claim "reinfected" later? And during this person's "cured" stage, they are carriers in the pubic, and exposing it to the general population, right?
It's a rough and ready determination; and possibly.
Quote:
I understand that nobody in America has died from the virus, so I don't want to be pessimistic, but I don't think folks have a good handle on it at this point.
No, nobody has a good handle on it, imo. As for whether or not anyone in the US had died from it ... my puzzlement is - how would we know? It's not a normal post-mortem test.

An exposed community coming down with it seems a decent clue.

Are YOU confident that a "cured" person is really cured, no longer a crrier?

Are YOU confident that a "cured" and then "reinfected" case is really a separate infection, and not merely another bout of the same infection?

1KIKI

Monday, February 24, 2020 2:28 AM

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Diamond Princess newcases(last24hours) 57 newtotal 691
S. Korea newcases(last24hours) 166 newtotal 602
Italy newcases(last24hours) 78 newtotal 157
Japan newcases(last24hours) 12 newtotal 146

Iran newcases(last24hours) 14 newtotal 43 deaths 8*
At 2% mortality, it back calculates to 400 cases.

1KIKI

Monday, February 24, 2020 2:41 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
An exposed community coming down with it seems a decent clue.

The problem is, we don't have a handle on everyone who was exposed. There were many people coming to the US from that area of China while the outbreak was occurring, but before temperature checking, and then travel restrictions with quarantine. Since the US had as many arrivals from that area of China during that time period as Singapore, and since Singapore had community-based COVID-19, there's every chance so does the US. It's just that we don't have the kind of medical system where people go when they're sick, because it's too expensive. So we don't have as good a way to monitor the population.

Quote:
Are YOU confident that a "cured" person is really cured, no longer a carrier?

Moi? No. I'd require perhaps an after-cure quarantine in a separate facility of at least 14 days to be on the safe(r) side.

Quote:
Are YOU confident that a "cured" and then "reinfected" case is really a separate infection, and not merely another bout of the same infection?

I think the one telltale to keep track of is that so far the 'reinfected' seem to fare worse than newly infected, in terms of cytokine storm and fatalities. And on the flip side, there doesn't seem to be any hospital-based observations of people getting better then cratering. It seems to be a different and more fatal medical pathway than an initial infection. If that observation holds, then it's more likely to be a reinfection with its own set of issues and prognosis, rather than a continuation of the initial one, imo.

SIGNYM

Monday, February 24, 2020 1:14 PM

Interestingly, this seems a lot like the "Spanish flu". Usually the very young get very sick, but with the Spanish flu the very young and the very old were spared. It was the young, healthy adults that got nailed. I presume because there's something about a pre-exposed, active immune system that makes it act in a way worse than a naive one.

Yanno, this flu might be The Real Deal ... the thing that changes everything. I know people were watching the Ebola outbreak, but the difference between Ebola and the Wuhan virus is that Ebola is NOT AIRBORNE. (At least, not yet! Altho it came close in Reston, VA.)

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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