Elections; 2024
POSTED BY: THG
UPDATED: Friday, November 21, 2025 00:12
VIEWED: 206031
PAGE 444 of 514
Quote:
SECOND:
Democrats refuse to call Nazis what they are.
You're right. There are a bunch in Ukraine they could be calling out.
Dood, you walked into that one!
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA
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I didn't want to add it directly to the first post I've been updating because I probably will only update this once, but here are the actual results of 2016 vs the polling aggregates, showing what the polling biases were 8 years ago as well as 4 years ago....
https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2016
2016 Presidential Election vote margins by battleground state:
National:000000 Clinton +2.1 (48.2% Clinton / 46.1% Trump)
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Wisconsin:00000 Trump +0.8 (46.5% Clinton / 47.2% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +0.7 (47.9% Clinton / 48.6% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.2 (43.5% Clinton / 51.7% Trump)
Michigan:000000 Trump +0.2 (47.3% Clinton / 57.5% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.5 (45.1% Clinton / 48.7% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Clinton +2.4 (47.9% Clinton / 45.5% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +3.7 (46.2% Clinton / 49.8% Trump)
Georgia:0000000 Trump +5.2 (45.9% Clinton / 51.0% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +1.2 (47.8% Clinton / 49.0% Trump)
What do those numbers mean in relation to the numbers posted earlier?
Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results...
(NOTE: A "+" bias is in favor of Trump, a "-" bias is in favor of the Democrat. This is important because Hillary's polling at the national level cratered from +7.2 to nothing in record time at the end and she actually did +0.5 better than the polls suggested she would on November 1st.
A "-" in the "ACTUAL" column means a Trump win, while a "+" means a Clinton win)
National:000000 Clinton POLLS: +1.6 - ACTUAL: +2.1 = 2016 BIAS: +0.5
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Wisconsin:00000 Clinton POLLS: +5.5 - ACTUAL: -0.8 = 2016 BIAS: -6.3
Pennsylvania:00 Clinton POLLS: +3.0 - ACTUAL: -0.7 = 2016 BIAS: -3.7
Ohio:0000000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.7 - ACTUAL: -8.2 = 2016 BIAS: -5.5
Michigan:000000 Clinton POLLS: +5.5 - ACTUAL: -0.2 = 2016 BIAS: -5.7
Arizona:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.0 - ACTUAL: -3.5 = 2016 BIAS: +0.5
Nevada:00000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.0 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2016 BIAS: +0.4
North Carolina: Clinton POLLS: +1.0 - ACTUAL: -3.7 = 2016 BIAS: -4.7
Georgia:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.6 - ACTUAL: -5.2 = 2016 BIAS: -0.6
Florida:0000000 Clinton POLLS: +1.0 - ACTUAL: -1.2 = 2016 BIAS: -2.2Quote:
...This was just as bad if not worse in 2016. Maybe I'll get around to doing comparisons to both years as election day draws near for comparison too.
That's what I'm doing right now. 
Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2016 and apply them to our current day polling...
National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2016 BIAS: +.5 = Harris +0.2
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Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -6.3 = Trump +6.0
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -3.7 = Trump +4.0
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +6.9 - 2016 BIAS: -5.5 = Trump +12.4
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -0.8 - 2016 BIAS: -5.7 = Trump +4.9
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.4 - 2016 BIAS: +0.5 = Trump +1.9
Nevada:
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Based on the above information I'm now ready to make my final prediction for the 2024 election.
Trump wins anywhere from every battleground state to every BS -2.
Trump wins the popular vote by over 1 Million votes.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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Quote:That is Putin's talking point to justify killing millions of Ukrainians and taking their land. Like every other Trumptard I know, you are a butthead. Kind of unsurprising that terrible things happen to buttheads like you -- it took decades for you to discover that alcohol was bad for your health, a fact already known for thousands of years.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
SECOND:
Democrats refuse to call Nazis what they are.
You're right. There are a bunch in Ukraine they could be calling out.
Dood, you walked into that one!
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Donald Trump Movie ‘The Apprentice’ Scores Theatrical Release in Russia (Exclusive)
Producers made only modest changes to the acclaimed Donald Trump biopic to win clearance for the movie to open on 800 screens across Putin's Russia.
November 1, 2024 5:00am
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/donald-trump-movie
-the-apprentice-scores-russia-release-1236051075/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Based on the above information I'm now ready to make my final prediction for the 2024 election.
Trump wins anywhere from every battleground state to every BS -2.
Trump wins the popular vote by over 1 Million votes.
--------------------------------------------------
Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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We'll see who's laughing on Wednesday. 
This is interesting...
Susquehanna, which is a known alt-Left polling firm that has given Democrats WAY more points in polling on the national level and the state level than they actually managed in the last two elections just gave Brown +1 in the Nevada senate race.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/nevada/brow
n-vs-rosen
That's the only positive poll for Brown vs. Rosen out of 8 current polls in the aggregate. Otherwise Rosen is a +4.3 favorite on average.
Does Susquehanna know something that Ted doesn't?
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
T
More racism and sexism coming from the Democrat party.
You are a Zero-Testosterone fool of a male facsimile, Theodore.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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