Elections; 2024
POSTED BY: THG
UPDATED: Friday, November 21, 2025 00:12
VIEWED: 206031
PAGE 448 of 514
Figuring for the 2016 Polling Biases (8 years ago on this day):
https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2016
2016 Presidential Election ACTUAL vote margins by battleground state:
National:000000 Clint +2.1 (48.2% Clinton / 46.1% Trump)
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +0.8 (46.5% Clinton / 47.2% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +0.7 (47.9% Clinton / 48.6% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.2 (43.5% Clinton / 51.7% Trump)
Michigan:000000 Trump +0.2 (47.3% Clinton / 57.5% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.5 (45.1% Clinton / 48.7% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Clint +2.4 (47.9% Clinton / 45.5% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +3.7 (46.2% Clinton / 49.8% Trump)
Georgia:0000000 Trump +5.2 (45.9% Clinton / 51.0% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +1.2 (47.8% Clinton / 49.0% Trump)
Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results 4 years ago...
(NOTE: A "+" bias is in favor of Trump, a "-" bias is in favor of the Democrat. This is important because Hillary's polling at the national level cratered from +7.2 to nothing in record time at the end and she actually did +0.5 better than the polls suggested she would on November 1st.
A "-" in the "ACTUAL" column means a Trump win, while a "+" means a Clinton win)
National:000000 Clinton POLLS: +1.8 - ACTUAL: +2.1 = 2016 BIAS: +0.3
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Clinton POLLS: +5.5 - ACTUAL: -0.8 = 2016 BIAS: -6.3
Pennsylvania:00 Clinton POLLS: +2.8 - ACTUAL: -0.7 = 2016 BIAS: -3.5
Ohio:0000000000 Clinton POLLS: -1.6 - ACTUAL: -8.2 = 2016 BIAS: -6.6
Michigan:000000 Clinton POLLS: +5.0 - ACTUAL: -0.2 = 2016 BIAS: -4.8
Arizona:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.0 - ACTUAL: -3.5 = 2016 BIAS: +0.5
Nevada:00000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.0 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2016 BIAS: +4.4
North Carolina: Clinton POLLS: -1.8 - ACTUAL: -3.7 = 2016 BIAS: -1.9
Georgia:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.3 - ACTUAL: -5.2 = 2016 BIAS: -2.9
Florida:0000000 Clinton POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: -1.2 = 2016 BIAS: -2.1
Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2016 and apply them to our current day polling...
National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.1 - 2016 BIAS: +0.3 = Harris +0.2
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -6.3 = Trump +6.0
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -3.5 = Trump +3.8
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.1 - 2016 BIAS: -6.6 = Trump +13.7
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -0.8 - 2016 BIAS: -4.8 = Trump +4.0
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.6 - 2016 BIAS: +0.5 = Trump +2.1
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2016 BIAS: +4.4 = Harris +3.4
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2016 BIAS: -1.9 = Trump +3.4
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.3 - 2016 BIAS: -2.9 = Trump +5.2
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2016 BIAS: -2.1 = Trump +10.1
Trump's lowest state margins looked just slightly better in 2016 than in
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Haha...
Michael Bloomberg just wrote up an article "Why I'm voting for Kamala Harris".
Could you imagine actually dealing with or even knowing somebody who gives one single shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris?
I have pretty high doubts that even Ted or Second give a shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris.
--------------------------------------------------
Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President. 
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Quote:It going to be fun for me if Trump loses. All the Trumptards will claim he won because they are sore losers. If Trump wins, it will be even more fun for me. I will eagerly wait for Biden to execute Trump: two in the head, one in the heart. Trumptards won't take that well. Will Trump survive until inauguration day? Or will his plane mysteriously explode in mid-air much like Putin had Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin killed? Maybe nothing happens, other than I get a huge tax cut thanks to President Trump wanting the same for himself. Money shall be my consolation prize.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Haha...
Michael Bloomberg just wrote up an article "Why I'm voting for Kamala Harris".
Could you imagine actually dealing with or even knowing somebody who gives one single shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris?
I have pretty high doubts that even Ted or Second give a shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris.
--------------------------------------------------
Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
Onboard grenade blast caused plane crash that killed Wagner boss, claims Putin
Russian president suggests Yevgeny Prigozhin was on drugs when he died in explosion on private jet from Moscow to St Petersburg
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/hand-grenade-explosion-c
aused-plane-crash-that-killed-wagner-boss-says-putin
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Reasons I think Kamala will win PA (and get to 270 electoral votes while doing it).
The polls say that the swing states are essentially deadlocked. The party that turns out the most of its voters will win the battle. The democrats are ahead on the enthusiasm scale, evidenced by the far greater small donations they have received and the unprecedented number of volunteers.
Roe v. Wade will inspire huge numbers (especially women) to come out and vote. Every recent election that expanded state abortion rights has won big time, even in red states.
Huge numbers of early voters makes it easier for democratic workers to winnow down the lists of registered voters they need to contact to make sure they vote.
Taylor Swift and Beyonce have endorsed Kamala and encouraged young people who love them to register and vote. Young people are less likely to vote, but when they do, it’s usually for the more progressive candidates.
There are more women than men in PA and women have averaged about 60-40% for Democrats. And women are more likely to vote than men.
There are 600,000 people of Polish descent in PA, and Kamala was wise enough to warn them that their old country is where Putin will invade next if he wins Ukraine.
The association of black farmers (many former Republicans) have endorsed Kamala.
Trump fails every popularity poll. Even people who plan to vote for him feels he is repugnant. When some moderate Republicans see the choice on the ballot, many will just not be able to check the name of the convicted felon and women assaulter.
Trump has not even tried to expand his base. His rallies are designed to appeal only to those people already on board. This base was not large enough to elect him in 2020, and Kamala seems to be a more formidable challenge than Biden was.
Since Trump rode down the golden escalator cheered on by a crowd that he paid to be there 9 years ago, 36 million Americans have turned 18 and are eligible to vote. The great majority of young people are more progressive, and care about the climate issue which the Democrats own. On the other hand, since then, 18 million Americans have died, and older people tend to be more conservative (hence, Florida has recently become a red state).
More than 100 motorcyclists in Philadelphia (mostly black males) spent this weekend visiting areas outside that city where low voter turnout is the norm. They stop at bars and restaurants and give a little speech describing why everyone should register and vote for Kamala.
Over 3 million Americans have student loans, many of which have been forgiven by the Biden-Harris administration. Every one of these people should be voting Democratic, especially since the Republicans have fought against loan forgiveness.
Trump has been showing signs of dementia at his rallies, and his age is becoming as issue that he himself was broadcasting as dangerous when Biden was his likely challenger.
(I believe in under-promising and over-delivering, just as Kamala does,) When both Trump and Kamala were in Texas with only 10 days until the election, Trump was either wasting money in a red state or he was worried that Cruz might be vulnerable, and Kamala was there (along with Beyonce and Willie Nelson) for the same reason.
On Friday, October 25, Trump flew to Michigan to have a rally which was streamed by PBS. He was 3 hours late, and many attendees had long since departed. His words were watched by 47,000 PBS followers. On the same day, Kamala gave a speech in Texas attended by 22,000, and PBS streamed it as well, but to an audience of 2.5 million, or more than 50 times as many people as those who tuned into Trump.
Democrats are clearly winning the ground game in PA with so many volunteers. The New York Times reported that 24,000 registered voters were contacted in one time period over which only 3000 Republicans were.
Several busloads of students from the Unive
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:It going to be fun for me if Trump loses. All the Trumptards will claim he won because they are sore losers. If Trump wins, it will be even more fun for me. I will eagerly wait for Biden to execute Trump: two in the head, one in the heart. Trumptards won't take that well. Will Trump survive until inauguration day? Or will his plane mysteriously explode in mid-air much like Putin had Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin killed? Maybe nothing happens, other than I get a huge tax cut thanks to President Trump wanting the same for himself. Money shall be my consolation prize.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Haha...
Michael Bloomberg just wrote up an article "Why I'm voting for Kamala Harris".
Could you imagine actually dealing with or even knowing somebody who gives one single shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris?
I have pretty high doubts that even Ted or Second give a shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris.
--------------------------------------------------
Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
Onboard grenade blast caused plane crash that killed Wagner boss, claims Putin
Russian president suggests Yevgeny Prigozhin was on drugs when he died in explosion on private jet from Moscow to St Petersburg
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/hand-grenade-explosion-c
aused-plane-crash-that-killed-wagner-boss-says-putin
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Does everybody see the insanity of the so-called "good guys"?
You heard it right here, folks. Second YEARNS to live in an America where the Democratically elected President gets murdered in cold blood because they don't agree with his political beliefs. He's said as much dozens of times now.
But I'm the Nazi.
All existing polling data. ALL of it. Shows Trump winning EVERYTHING.
Let's see if this is a Facts election or a Feelings election.
--------------------------------------------------
Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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Hey SECOND ....
Quote:
EPA Ordered to Address Risks of Fluoride in Water Linked to Children's IQ
In August, the National Toxicology Program, part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), released a report that stated "with moderate confidence" that there is a connection between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The report marks the first time a federal agency has determined such findings. It was not designed to evaluate the health effects of fluoride in drinking water alone.
https://www.newsweek.com/epa-fluoride-drinking-water-risks-childrens-i
q-1959434
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA
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Another good story ruined by an eye witness.
--------------------------------------------------
Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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I don't know when they were announced, but it looks like Nevada and Michigan were called by Trump and recognized by CNN eventually at some point.
CNN shows the Electoral Count at 301 / 226 right now. Real Clear Politics has it at 312 / 226.
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BREAKING: Donald Trump has announced if he wins, he will lift sanctions on Russia and Iran. This is why Putin was paying millions to Republican influencers. He’s bought control of Trump’s party. Retweet so all Americans see this alarming announcement.
https://newrepublic.com/post/185652/trump-sanctions-promise-adviser-ch
arged-russia-media
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Nate Silver called the race for the White House a “pure toss-up” Sunday as he gave ex-President Donald Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in his latest forecast.
Silver’s model shows Trump has a 51.5% chance of clinching the Electoral College while Harris has a 48.1% chance, according to a Substack post on Sunday morning, Mediate reported.
https://nypost.com/2024/11/03/us-news/prominent-election-guru-nate-sil
ver-reveals-latest-forecast/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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