The Blue Beetle Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, October 20, 2023 10:03
VIEWED: 4841
PAGE 6 of 9
Continued from the last page...
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
If it only sees a 40% drop the next three days, it grosses $7,778,921 Domestic since Labor Day.
Bruce seems to think it's only going to drop 38% which would add $142,295 to that number, if true.Quote:
Its drops after raising 167% on the holiday from the week before were 55% on Tuesday, 56% on Wednesday, and 59% on Thursday.
If it drops 55% on average this weekend, it grosses $6,711,709 Domestic since Labor Day.
With $4.5 to $5.5 Million likely internationally, its range is between $11.2M and $13.3M added to the figure of just shy of $102 Million it had after Sunday night's and the international numbers were calculated after the weekend.
That's going to put it between $113.2 Million to $115.3 Million after Sunday night.
So $115.5 worldwide is the high end prediction now.
I don't think Bruce is right, but I'm not going to argue it because of how weak the box office is suddenly looking. He's already not even mentioning The Equalizer 3 once in his weekly prediction article, and if you look at the weekdays this week for all the movies after Monday it looks like everybody in the country just collectively said "meh... I don't feel like going out to see a movie anymore".
I mean, really... Thursday's entire box office is probably the most pathetic thing I've ever seen on the-numbers.
34 different movies on offer and they couldn't even crack $10 Million nationwide. It wasn't all that long ago where Barbie was making that or close to it by itself on a weekday.
31 of the movies pulled in $625k or less. 26 of them pulled in less than $100k. 14 of them pulled in less than $50k. 10 of them pulled in less than $10k. 8 of them pulled in less than $5k.
And Insidious, Super Mario Bros, The Little Mermaid and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse are all a part of that sub $5k crowd. First of all, I thought Spider-verse was pulled from the theaters a week ago, and I've been saying for weeks all 4 of those need to be retired. Now they're all grossing $10 to $35 per theater. Not even worth keeping the lights on. Embarrassing.
The Nun II is going to be this weekends winner, but it pulled in less on previews than Blue Beetle did. Equalizer 3 made half of that last night. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 got just $550k on previews.
Blue Beetle could get a bump higher this weekend just from bored people who want to see a movie but aren't into action or horror flicks and just don't see anything else even worth paying for that they haven't already seen.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
Blue Beetle projection for Friday: $850,000 or a 45% drop.
Last Friday Blue Beetle got a 41% drop on Friday, a 34% drop on Saturday and a 48% drop on Sunday. It actually was a very good Sunday that did more business than Saturday because of the Holiday, and only was so high because for some reason Sunday, August 27th only had a 17% drop and did $1.3 Million more business than Saturday, August 26th. Movies almost never do as well on Sunday as they do Saturday, and I fully expect this weekend to be the correction to this strange trend Blue Beetle has had up until now.
Saturday's week-to-week drop should be higher than last weeks 34% too, with maybe only a 30-35% increase over Friday's numbers. Let's call it $1.4 Million on the high end to be safe.
Sunday will pull in roughly what Friday does, give or take 15%. I think it's about a $3.2 to $3.5 Million weekend for Blue Beetle domestically, which would be right in line with my -55% prediction. It probably won't do much better than a -50% drop, but it's not going to get only -45%.
In movies that need to be retired news...
The Little Mermaid embarrasses once again with $44 per theater on Friday.
Elemental gets a pathet
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
If it only sees a 40% drop the next three days, it grosses $7,778,921 Domestic since Labor Day.
Bruce seems to think it's only going to drop 38% which would add $142,295 to that number, if true.Quote:
Its drops after raising 167% on the holiday from the week before were 55% on Tuesday, 56% on Wednesday, and 59% on Thursday.
If it drops 55% on average this weekend, it grosses $6,711,709 Domestic since Labor Day.
With $4.5 to $5.5 Million likely internationally, its range is between $11.2M and $13.3M added to the figure of just shy of $102 Million it had after Sunday night's and the international numbers were calculated after the weekend.
That's going to put it between $113.2 Million to $115.3 Million after Sunday night.
So $115.5 worldwide is the high end prediction now.
I don't think Bruce is right, but I'm not going to argue it because of how weak the box office is suddenly looking. He's already not even mentioning The Equalizer 3 once in his weekly prediction article, and if you look at the weekdays this week for all the movies after Monday it looks like everybody in the country just collectively said "meh... I don't feel like going out to see a movie anymore".
Yeah. Bruce wasn't right. He predicted $4,410,000 for Blue Beetle this weekend. Projections for this weekend are only $3,775,000, for a 47% drop.
Quote:
If you look at Bruce's charts, Blue Beetle had just shy of $46 Million on Day 10 (Sunday). So we had another $18 Million for 7 days after the first $18 Million for 3 days internationally, which adds up to $82 Million. (And we can easily infer that the new international numbers had been posted by Bruce by afternoon on Sunday the 27th because that's when I said the worldwide total for 10 days was $82 Million and that $18 Million didn't exist the week before).
As of Sunday, September 3rd, Blue Beetle had $56,418,800 Domestically, and internationally it's currently at $45,900,000. $46-$18-$18 = $10 Million added for the next 7 days internationally.
$10 Million from $18 Million is a 45% drop from the previous week.
To be conservative, let's assume another 45% drop this week for $5.5 Million to be posted on Sunday, September 10th.
With the $7,336,938 Domestic assuming only a 40% drop every day from Thursday to Sunday, that will total $12,836,938 worldwide once Sunday's numbers are reported.
That's $1,436,938 more than I predicted on September 3rd that Blue Beetle would add to its total over the next 7 days, but that also includes a Holiday Monday where it got $2,312,258 which was +167% from the prior Monday. Had it not been a holiday and got a 40% drop instead, it would have only grossed $518,838. $2,312,258 - $518,838 = $1,793,420.
Domestic box office is now $63,703,555 as of Sunday with the projections. It shouldn't vary much from that when the actual numbers come in this long into BB's run.
That's an increase of only $6,434,755 since Labor Day Monday, which is much more in line with my predictions. And yes, as I mentioned before, Sunday made quite a bit less than Saturday for Blue Beetle, braking that strange trend it started the week before a holiday weekend of having a larger Sunday. Sunday was 35% less than Saturday this weekend.
International numbers are $50,300,000, which is only a $4,400,000 gain over last weekend, or a 56% drop from last weekend.
If no new international numbers are added by Monday and the projections don't change much, Blue Beetle now has $114,003,555 worldwide.
On September 3rd, without taking into account Labor Day and the holiday effect, I said this:
Quote:
After 4 weeks it's got $113,274,000 worldwide.
Even with the extra million it got on Sunday and the extra 1.5 Million or so it got on the holiday that it wouldn't have otherwise, my prediction was only about $750k lower than what it ended up getting.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: (September 8th)
Bruce seems to think it's only going to drop 38% which would add $142,295 to that number, if true.
...
I don't think Bruce is right, but I'm not going to argue it because of how weak the box office is suddenly looking. He's already not even mentioning The Equalizer 3 once in his weekly prediction article, and if you look at the weekdays this week for all the movies after Monday it looks like everybody in the country just collectively said "meh... I don't feel like going out to see a movie anymore".
I mean, really... Thursday's entire box office is probably the most pathetic thing I've ever seen on the-numbers.
34 different movies on offer and they couldn't even crack $10 Million nationwide. It wasn't all that long ago where Barbie was making that or close to it by itself on a weekday.
31 of the movies pulled in $625k or less. 26 of them pulled in less than $100k. 14 of them pulled in less than $50k. 10 of them pulled in less than $10k. 8 of them pulled in less than $5k.
And Insidious, Super Mario Bros, The Little Mermaid and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse are all a part of that sub $5k crowd. First of all, I thought Spider-verse was pulled from the theaters a week ago, and I've been saying for weeks all 4 of those need to be retired. Now they're all grossing $10 to $35 per theater. Not even worth keeping the lights on. Embarrassing.
Bruce had something to say about this in his new artice on the projections this weekend....
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/255080830-Weekend-projections-The-Nun
-II-kicks-off-Fall-season-with-32-6-million-debut
Quote:
Aside from another decent hold by Barbie, returning films are underperforming this weekend. That’s partly due to the comparison against the Labor Day Holiday weekend last weekend, but mostly because the market as a whole is weakening as we hit the slowest time of the year for movies in theaters. The good news is that the $90-million-or-so that will be generated by all movies playing in theaters this weekend compares to a dismal $42-million weekend this time last year. Barbarian topped the box office chart that weekend with just $10.5 million on debut. We’ve come a long way since then.
Interesting. I never looked this deeply into film numbers for this long. I wasn't aware that this was traditionally the slowest time all year for the Box Office.
And boy... He wasn't kidding.
Check this article out from September 11th of last year:
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252580830-Weekend-projections-Barbari
an-wins-on-slowest-weekend-since-January
I thought last week looked bad. This weekend just saw the Top 10 movies pull in over $81 Million. The same weekend last year the Top 10 movies only pulled in $33 Million.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Legit numbers are in and as of Sunday, September 11th, Blue Beetle has $114,049,642 worldwide. My prediction based off of a 40% worldwide drop weekly going forward was $113,274,000 worldwide, and despite Labor Day's Weekend's insane take, it only beat that prediction by $806k.
Now that reality is set in, I'm going to put what I actually think happens going forward, rather than 40% drops.
To be conservative, we're going with 55% drops from here on out. And that's going to be 55% from what it would have gotten on Monday if it weren't a holiday and not what it ended up getting, so $518,838 instead of $2,312,258.
That's $5,537,422 Domestic for this week, with another $4.4 Million International, so let's just call it $10 Million in total.
Week 5 +$4,500,000 (Worldwide Total: $118,549,642)
Week 6 +$2,475,000 (Worldwide Total: $121,024,642)
Week 7 +$1,113,750 (Worldwide Total: $122,138,392)
Week 8 +$501,187 (Worldwide Total: $122,639,579)
Week 9 +$225,534 (Worldwide Total: $122,865,113)
Week 10 +$101,490 (Worldwide Total: $122,966,603)
Week 11 +$45,671 (Worldwide Total: $123,012,274)
Week 12 +$20,552 (Worldwide Total: $123,032,826)
Not only isn't this movie Black Adam, but now that the novelty and media hype around it has more or less died, I predict its' going to behave more like Shazam II did than Black Adam did going forward. But I'm not going to predict 70% and 80% weekly drops. 55% sounds about right.
There will be additional money in there, however. It still gets a release for sure in Australia and New Zealand on the 14th (this Thursday), and although there's no proof of it by any legitimate source, there are still rumors that it will also be getting a release in Japan and China on the same day.
I will not base any of my predictions off of rumors, so if it DOES get a release in China and Japan this will mess my numbers up. The online release date for purchase (not streaming) is also rumored to be on September 19th or September 26th, but some still say it won't be until October. This will also play into the numbers and I won't be factoring it in here.
However, since it is being released in Australia and New Zealand so late (and nearer to the online release date regardless), I have to give it Shazam II numbers for those countries. I think Blue Beetle would have done better than Shazam II did there if it were released simultaneously with the US like Shazam was, although it wouldn't have performed nearly as well as Black Adam did with The Rock heading up that show.
Shazam II made $3,554,532 in Australia and $554,512 in New Zealand. Assuming Blue Beetle doesn't just get yanked on week 7 like Shazam II did, Let's just say it will make $4.5 Million in total in those two countries to be conservative.
With this in mind...
Add $2.5 Million to Week 5 = $121,049,642
Add $1.125 Million to Week 6 = $124,649,642
Add $506,250 to Week 7 = $126,269,642
Add $227,813 to Week 8 = $127,034,642
Add $102,516 to Week 9 = $127,326,692
Add $46,132 to Week 10 = $127,474,314
Add $20,759 to Week 11 = $127,540,744
Add $9,342 to Week 12 = $127,570,638
My prediction, barring releases in countries like China and Japan that aren't yet confirmed by any legitimate news source, is that Blue Beetle does not make the $132 Million + that Shazam II made this spring.
I also think we're going to have our final answer long before a full 12 weeks has passed as well because unlike Disney who loves to overstay their welcome and still keep their flop movies in the theaters long after it's gotten embarrassing, Warner Bros. doesn't seem to like to F-around and gets them out of theaters and onto streaming ASAP.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
To be conservative, we're going with 55% drops from here on out. And that's going to be 55% from what it would have gotten on Monday if it weren't a holiday and not what it ended up getting, so $518,838 instead of $2,312,258.
Monday's projection: $230,000
56% drop from what I said last Monday would have been if not for the holiday. 90% drop from what it made on Labor Day.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Blue Beetle surprises with $373,894 on Cheap Seat Tuesday, only a 34% drop from last week.
When I look at the entire list for the day, the mid-30's seems to be the normal for the drop from last week. What I'm thinking here is that there's actually a hardcore moviegoing base that also overlaps with people who want to go to the theater when it's cheap as well.
We've already mentioned that after Labor Day last week attendance to the theaters for Tuesday through Thursday just fell off a cliff. Maybe Tuesday in particular won't see as large drops for the movies as the other weekdays?
It's too early to tell if (what I thought was a conservative) prediction of 55% drops week to week was actually high for Blue Beetle. I think for sure that it will be once it is released online. I've heard September 19th and September 26th will be the day it's released for online purchase, but still no solid confirmation of that from any legitimate movie news sources.
The $75k or so more it got yesterday than I expected means almost nothing to its gross on face value, but if it is indicative of its performance this weekend then it might have better end-of-shelf-life legs than I was giving it credit for. We'll have to see if my prediction of a 55% drop was too hard on the movie or not. I think it still drops that hard on Wednesday and Thursday, but the weekend might prove kinder to BB and even it out somewhere around the high 40's. The less it drops this week, the less it needs to drop the following weeks to outperform my predictions, even if we are talking about small amounts that don't add up to much compared to the first couple of weeks. I'm really interested in seeing if this movie makes more than Shazam II or not in the end. And I don't even really know why since it will still be a major failure for WB either way at this point.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Blue Beetle loses 400 theaters this weekend.
It only dropped 30% from last Wednesday night this Wednesday, so there may be some life left in it yet, although the big-number days are long behind it.
We'll see what Bruce predicts this for this weekend, but I'm going to give it $1 Million more for the week than I said on Monday. If it weren't for the Australia and New Zealand releases, I still don't imagine it would have cracked $120 Million by Sunday night after the international numbers rolled in.
I don't really have any clue how it's going to play in Australia or New Zealand, but my guess is that it doesn't have more than $122.5 Million as the absolute ceiling with the two of them in mind.
If it doesn't manage $122.5 Million by Sunday night with International numbers, I don't think it will manage to beat Shazam II.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Yeah... Boy... I'm really surprised at Blue Beetle's performance this week.
Last week, after the holiday, it did -55% on Tuesday, -56% on Wednesday, -59% on Thursday during the week. Then it followed that up with -45%, -35% and -57% on the weekend.
I'd thought for sure we were in for at least -50% every day this week, and the only day that would have been true so far was Monday's 90% drop which would have been only about -55% had the prior Monday not been Labor Day.
Tuesday this week was only -35%. Wednesday was -30%. And projections for Thursday now show only -23% from last week, and it is probably only 21 or 22% since every projection this week was slightly lower than reality when the actual numbers came in.
Not only that, but the 57% drop it got on Sunday is not expected to be duplicated since that was just a correction from the last two weeks where Sunday was higher than Saturday, which is usually a thing that doesn't happen.
At least for this weekend, I'm backing way off on my prediction for the drop. From -55% to only -35% for the entire week.
That will be $1.329 Million more for the week Domestic than I predicted on Monday. This might prove to be too high a prediction now with the loss of 400 theaters, but it's still going to be showing in 2,386 theaters, which is roughly 6/7ths of the amount it had up until yesterday and with how little it dropped during the week I can't bring myself to predict it will do any worse than that over the weekend.
According to Collider, it dropped -48% internationally from the previous weekend to this past weekend. (The movie sites only seem to bother tracking weekend drops, and not drops for the whole week). I have the full week drop from the previous week at -56%.
Just to be safe, I'm going to go with -48% drop international for the whole week, so that's another $2.288 Million.
Without Australia and NZ, that comes out to $5,829,564 for Sunday Worldwide. With a guess of $2.5 Million in Australia and NZ opening weekend, that's $8,329,564 in addition to the $114 Million + that it had last Sunday, or around $122.5 Million, which is what I said my new prediction would be last night off the top of my head without putting any math into it.
I don't think it will get any higher than that by Sunday, but we're really not going to know anything until all those international numbers come in. Even if it were to do less business this weekend than my revised numbers, it could have a great opening weekend in Australia to offset that. It's pretty hard to speculate these weird international release schedules they've been doing this year.
At the end of the day, this is all textbook too little too late and we're just quibbling over a few million bucks here and there. The drops we're seeing this week would have been much more impactful and great news for Warner Bros. if they were going on during week 2 and week 3 instead of week 4. But with how little it grossed opening weekend it still wouldn't have amounted to more than about $10 Million extra for the movie which wasn't going to save it anyway.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
At least for this weekend, I'm backing way off on my prediction for the drop. From -55% to only -35% for the entire week.
That will be $1.329 Million more for the week Domestic than I predicted on Monday. This might prove to be too high a prediction now with the loss of 400 theaters, but it's still going to be showing in 2,386 theaters, which is roughly 6/7ths of the amount it had up until yesterday and with how little it dropped during the week I can't bring myself to predict it will do any worse than that over the weekend.
Bruce is apparently feeling ballzier than I am this weekend.
His prediction for BB this weekend Domestic is only $2,170,000, which is a 43% drop from the previous weekend.
That would be $3,226,140 for the 7 days, which would be $315,424 less than my 35% drop I stated this morning.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
At least for this weekend, I'm backing way off on my prediction for the drop. From -55% to only -35% for the entire week.
That will be $1.329 Million more for the week Domestic than I predicted on Monday. This might prove to be too high a prediction now with the loss of 400 theaters, but it's still going to be showing in 2,386 theaters, which is roughly 6/7ths of the amount it had up until yesterday and with how little it dropped during the week I can't bring myself to predict it will do any worse than that over the weekend.
Bruce is apparently feeling ballzier than I am this weekend.
His prediction for BB this weekend Domestic is only $2,170,000, which is a 43% drop from the previous weekend.
That would be $3,226,140 for the 7 days, which would be $315,424 less than my 35% drop I stated this morning.
Projections are in, and they appear to be $2,475,000, or exactly a 35% drop.
That would be $3,531,140 for the last 7 days if accurate.
That's $1,039,300 more than my Monday prediction of $2,491,840 with 55% drops for the week, but perfectly lines up with my Friday afternoon revised prediction of only 35% drops.
Still no word on the date when BB will be available to purchase online yet from any legitimate news sources, although there are quite a few copy and paste articles saying that they moved it back from 9/19 to 9/26. This should give it a little bit of time to make some money in Australia and New Zealand before it face plants.
Now we just wait until the International numbers roll on in. Hopefully today, but probably not until tomorrow.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME