The Blue Beetle Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, October 20, 2023 10:03
VIEWED: 4841
PAGE 8 of 9
Well... International reporting continues to be abysmal on all the movies across the board for the 3rd week in a row...
Let's check in and see how Blue Beetle is doing compared to my September 3rd predictions....
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (September 3rd):
After 4 weeks it's got $113,274,000 worldwide.
After 5 weeks it's got $120,114,000.
After 6 weeks it's got $124,218,000.
Remember... My "weeks" were just AFTER the weekend on these predictions, where Bruce calculates the week ending on Thursday of every week (I really wish he wouldn't do that since the movies START on Thursday/Friday night, and International numbers tend to come in on Sunday/Monday. IMO, Opening Weekend should be considered its own week because of this).
Also, I made this projection just before Labor Day Weekend, so BB did get quite a bump I didn't calculate for, especially on the following Sunday and Monday.
Current Worldwide BO for BB: $122,917,883.
My prediction for today on September 3rd: $124,218,000
That's $1,300,117 less than my prediction for Today, made 22 Days ago.
Though we know that Blue Beetle is up-to-date on the Domestic numbers through Sunday, it's hard to tell what the International total really is, or even if international numbers for the weekend have come in yet. Quite a few countries on his international tabs are still numbers all the way back from 8/21 (opening weekend numbers), or haven't gotten any money updates at all. But at the same time, the "Rest of World" shows $24,666,030 that has been un-allocated. I used to think that this field meant countries that he didn't have on the list, but we've already seen with other movies that Bruce just uses that field as a placeholder for money that has been reported by the Studios that he hasn't gotten around to allocating to their proper countries yet... some/many/all of which are already on his board.
So there could be $5 million that hasn't been reported internationally for all I know. I recently witnessed Disney gain $28 Million over 4 or 5 films that were already out of theaters weeks ago up to over 6 months ago from international numbers finally being reconciled. With this just being a singular movie and only having $53 Million international receipts so far, I don't expect anything nearly as dramatic here, but since it is still in the theaters and we haven't given this film nearly enough time for international numbers to come in, I'm willing to give that at least around $5 Million internationally so far that hasn't been accounted for.
These predictions were made in reply to Jaynez' post on September 3rd when he claimed Blue Beetle had $95 Million Worldwide (It was actually $102 Million at the time) and he questioned my early predictions that Blue Beetle would be a failure:
Quote:
Can it get another 100 Million, now it is in contest with another film The Equalizer 3 a horror movie Birth/Rebirth and Gran Turismo Starts Strong, Columbia Pictures and Sony
And like I said in my two replies... No. It couldn't possibly.
To be fair to Jaynez though, earlier in his post he said the following:
Quote:
It seems to have staying power, I'm not sure you're wrong but
Seems to be doing better than Black Adam, The Flash and new 'Shazam! Fury of the Gods.'
Not trying to call you out here buddy... Just trying to teach you how this stuff works. I happen to know a bit about these things after a few years of following them and really getting down and dirty with the numbers over the course of 2023. I knew very early on that my pre-release prediction was right and Blue Beetle was going to be another major failure for Warner Bros.
It didn't do close to the business that Black Adam OR The Flash did, not even in regards to the production budget vs. WW Gross.
Blue Beetle [CURRENT] WW Gross vs. Production Budget: 102% ($123M over $120M, rounding up).[/
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well... International reporting continues to be abysmal on all the movies across the board for the 3rd week in a row...
Let's check in and see how Blue Beetle is doing compared to my September 3rd predictions....Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (September 3rd):
After 4 weeks it's got $113,274,000 worldwide.
After 5 weeks it's got $120,114,000.
After 6 weeks it's got $124,218,000.
Remember... My "weeks" were just AFTER the weekend on these predictions, where Bruce calculates the week ending on Thursday of every week (I really wish he wouldn't do that since the movies START on Thursday/Friday night, and International numbers tend to come in on Sunday/Monday. IMO, Opening Weekend should be considered its own week because of this).
Also, I made this projection just before Labor Day Weekend, so BB did get quite a bump I didn't calculate for, especially on the following Sunday and Monday.
Current Worldwide BO for BB: $122,917,883.
My prediction for today on September 3rd: $124,218,000
That's $1,300,117 less than my prediction for Today, made 22 Days ago.
Though we know that Blue Beetle is up-to-date on the Domestic numbers through Sunday, it's hard to tell what the International total really is, or even if international numbers for the weekend have come in yet. Quite a few countries on his international tabs are still numbers all the way back from 8/21 (opening weekend numbers), or haven't gotten any money updates at all. But at the same time, the "Rest of World" shows $24,666,030 that has been un-allocated. I used to think that this field meant countries that he didn't have on the list, but we've already seen with other movies that Bruce just uses that field as a placeholder for money that has been reported by the Studios that he hasn't gotten around to allocating to their proper countries yet... some/many/all of which are already on his board.
So there could be $5 million that hasn't been reported internationally for all I know. I recently witnessed Disney gain $28 Million over 4 or 5 films that were already out of theaters weeks ago up to over 6 months ago from international numbers finally being reconciled. With this just being a singular movie and only having $53 Million international receipts so far, I don't expect anything nearly as dramatic here, but since it is still in the theaters and we haven't given this film nearly enough time for international numbers to come in, I'm willing to give that at least around $5 Million internationally so far that hasn't been accounted for.
Oh...
And Box Office Mojo (an IMDB subsidiary) currently reports that BB has made $55 Million Internationally, vs. The-Numbers.com saying $53,099,648.
https://archive.ph/toszF
The worldwide total according to BOM is $124,818,235.
Now I don't use BOM for my tables and consider The-Numbers to be the ultimate source for legitimate Box Office accounting, but there are times like right now where Bruce falls behind on more than one movie when it comes to International reporting. He's behind over $4 Million on Talk To Me and somewhere around $1.5 Million for Sound of Freedom on the international numbers and has been for about three weeks now.
This current Blue Beetle WW total of $124,218,235 reported at BOM is itself $1,900,352 more than what the-numbers is reporting.
BOM's current number of $124,218,235 WW is also only $600,235 higher than my prediction for Blue Beetle would be worldwide from 22 days ago.
So I'm $1,300,117 above The-Numbers and $600,235 below Box Office Mojo reporting for yesterday.
I'm sure that there's AT LEAST as much international as BOM is reporting though, so I know my prediction was low (by at least $600k), but as I've stated several times before that was due to the extra couple of million it got on Labor Day and the holiday weekend that I hadn't
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
This current Blue Beetle WW total of $124,218,235 reported at BOM is itself $1,900,352 more than what the-numbers is reporting.
BOM's current number of $124,218,235 WW is also only $600,235 higher than my prediction for Blue Beetle would be worldwide from 22 days ago.
So I'm $1,300,117 above The-Numbers and $600,235 below Box Office Mojo reporting for yesterday.
I'm sure that there's AT LEAST as much international as BOM is reporting though, so I know my prediction was low (by at least $600k), but as I've stated several times before that was due to the extra couple of million it got on Labor Day and the holiday weekend that I hadn't accounted for in my predictions. I'm still happy with it.
In a rare turn of events, Bruce updated the international total at The-Numbers and is now showing exactly the same amount Worldwide to the dollar as BoxOfficeMojo.
Blue Beetle The-Numbers Archive 09/26: https://archive.ph/SRgHV
$124,988,677
So minus the $170,442 it pulled in on Monday in the states, my prediction from September 3rd was exactly $600,235 less than both sites show for the 22nd.
And even though it's still doing quite a bit better than I thought it would in the states this late in the game, it doesn't appear to be getting that much traction internationally. Unless there are some international surprises that neither site is reporting right now, I think I'll be even closer on Sunday/Monday or it might actually fall behind my week 7 prediction.
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Blue Beetle started the week off strong. I mean, not a lot of money this late in the game, but it gained 10% on Monday, lost 34% on Tuesday, and 35% on Wednesday. Not bad, especially considering that a high def version of the movie leaked online.
But it appears that the dual releases of Saw X and the sci-fi The Creator may have taken a bite out of what was left of its Domestic audience since it lost 48% on Thursday.
BOM and The-Numbers are even on their reporting now, with the only difference being Thursday's projection of $70,000 stateside.
Going into Weekend 7, Blue Beetle now has $125,324,308 worldwide.
It's impossible to tell how far behind the reporting is internationally. Unlike some other movies I'm tracking, BOM and The-Numbers are showing the same amount internationally. Clicking on the individual countries at BOM that had large box offices, most of them haven't been updated in a while, but most of them have had huge drops in numbers to the point where it's possible that they just didn't show it anymore beyond the last week reported.
This isn't the case with Brazil though. The last week it was updated was August 24-27, and it pulled in $1.4 Million that weekend (for a total of $4.2 Million). However, BOM also reports that Brazil has pulled in $7.9 Million in total for BB, so there is $3.7 Million extra reported that hasn't been put into a weekly breakdown. If we were to carry the known first weekend drop of 36% week to week off of the $2M it made in Brazil in its second week, that would only amount to $2.959 Million through Sunday the 24th, so I think it's pretty safe to say that Brazil is actually up to date.
Mexico hasn't been reported since Sep 8-10 and the money there matches the Mexico total, so there probably is more money yet to be reported. But it only made $375k on the weekend of Sep 8-10, so maybe it made another $1 Million through Sunday?
Columbia is up to date, and it only made $3.3k there last weekend, so it's probably not even being shown there anymore by this weekend.
I'd give it maybe $1.5 Million everywhere else tops from perusing the charts at BOM.
So I'd expect we're probably looking at a true figure of around $127M to $127.750 Million if everything were up to date.
At this point, I think the only way that Blue Beetle can beat Shazam II's box office dollar-wise is if we get some international reporting surprises after it's dumped from the US Box Office since it would still need about $5 Million.
Blue Beetle lost 1006 theaters in the States this weekend, dropping to 948 theaters. It was already making end-stage money despite the low losses week to week the last several weeks, but I imagine that after losing 50% of its theaters this weekend those losses will be quite a bit larger going forward.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
BOM and The-Numbers are even on their reporting now, with the only difference being Thursday's projection of $70,000 stateside.
Going into Weekend 7, Blue Beetle now has $125,324,308 worldwide.
It's impossible to tell how far behind the reporting is internationally.
...
Mexico hasn't been reported since Sep 8-10 and the money there matches the Mexico total, so there probably is more money yet to be reported. But it only made $375k on the weekend of Sep 8-10, so maybe it made another $1 Million through Sunday?
...
I'd give it maybe $1.5 Million everywhere else tops from perusing the charts at BOM.
So I'd expect we're probably looking at a true figure of around $127M to $127.750 Million if everything were up to date.
There was an update on BOM today for Blu Beetle.
Worldwide it's now $126,124,919, which is $800,611 more than the $125,324,308 it was showing this morning when I made the previous post.
All I know is that it did not come from Mexico. So that's half the money I said BOM was likely to be behind internationally everywhere else besides Mexico.
New archive for 9/29 here: https://archive.ph/YDUA1
At $126,124,919, Blue Beetle needs $6,067,443 to beat Shazam II.
It has now made 105% of its production budget. Shazam II made 106%. Like I said before, BB's going to beat Shazam II on the WW Gross vs. Production budget, but it's still unknown if it's going to go down in history as DC's biggest flop by pure dollars in ticket sales or not.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Blue Beetle started the week off strong. I mean, not a lot of money this late in the game, but it gained 10% on Monday, lost 34% on Tuesday, and 35% on Wednesday. Not bad, especially considering that a high def version of the movie leaked online.
But it appears that the dual releases of Saw X and the sci-fi The Creator may have taken a bite out of what was left of its Domestic audience since it lost 48% on Thursday.
BOM and The-Numbers are even on their reporting now, with the only difference being Thursday's projection of $70,000 stateside.
Going into Weekend 7, Blue Beetle now has $125,324,308 worldwide.
...
Blue Beetle lost 1006 theaters in the States this weekend, dropping to 948 theaters. It was already making end-stage money despite the low losses week to week the last several weeks, but I imagine that after losing 50% of its theaters this weekend those losses will be quite a bit larger going forward.
Yup... Weekend 7 losses were quite a bit more severe. The worst weekend loss by far.
Friday: $170k (-59%)
Saturday: $330k (-60%)
Sunday: $215k (-63%)
Total: $710k (-61%)
BOM and The-Numbers were even on Domestic/International reporting until BOM added $800k on Friday to the international totals for $126,124,919. Bruce still hasn't updated this $800k international, so he's behind on that, but BOM doesn't have Saturday and Sunday added yet where Bruce does.
Taking the international from BOM and the Domestic from Bruce, Blue Beetle now has $127,374,919 worldwide. Rounding up the percentage, it is now 106% of the Production Budget for a virtual tie with Shazam II, with more money still coming both Domestic and International, albeit not that much.
It is now $4,817,443 behind Shazam II's worldwide gross.
I don't imagine any scenario where there is still nearly $5 Million of new money that Blue Beetle makes going forward, but there will still be international updates through the weekend and there's also a probability that there is at least some international money that remains unreported.
We're close enough now where I can't really give a prediction on which movie comes out on top in the race to the bottom. It's pretty much a coin flip at this point.
But with my experience on the way international numbers are handled late in a movie's run, I'd probably have to give a slight edge to Blue Beetle here, simply because Shazam II has been out of the theaters so long it is basically a 0% chance that they'd find any more money there and we could be seeing sporadic international additions to Blue Beetle as late as December.
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Quote:
Week 7 = $126,269,642
Week 8 = $127,034,642
Week 9 = $127,326,692
Week 10 = $127,474,314
Week 11 = $127,540,744
Week 12 = $127,570,638
Due to higher than expected Domestic numbers the last few weeks, it appears that we're 2 weeks ahead of schedule on my predictions (about $1.1 Million) that included the Australia/New Zealand money.
After Weekend 7's numbers came in, we're at $127,339,537 worldwide.
And even though we had a 73% drop from last Monday this week, it was still $45k, so we're not going to see next to nothing numbers like I thought we'd be seeing now until next week.
We are at the end stage of the box office for this though, regardless, and I doubt very much that BB gets 12 weeks in the theaters like Black Adam did.
After Monday, Blue Beetle needs $4,807,210 to beat Shazam II.
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Given the fact that the $4.5 Million movie Talk To Me just got a surprise $15 Million added internationally, which was about a 40% addition to its previous international numbers, I'm going to have to guess that Blue Beetle beats Shazam II.
International reporting has been terrible for the last 4 to 5 weeks. There could be another $15 Million in there for Blue Beetle too for all I know.
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Just saw Bruce's theater count update for next week. Blue Beetle will still be playing in 538 theaters starting tomorrow, so it officially gets at least 1 more week in theaters than Shazam II did.
I doubt it will make 12 weeks like Black Adam, but I can't imagine that they're going to just yank it next week if it's still playing in over 500 this week. It should get at least 9 if not 10 weeks. Next week it will be making about $20k per day after the weekend.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Week 7 = $126,269,642
Week 8 = $127,034,642
Week 9 = $127,326,692
Week 10 = $127,474,314
Week 11 = $127,540,744
Week 12 = $127,570,638
Due to higher than expected Domestic numbers the last few weeks, it appears that we're 2 weeks ahead of schedule on my predictions (about $1.1 Million) that included the Australia/New Zealand money.
After Weekend 7's numbers came in, we're at $127,339,537 worldwide.
And even though we had a 73% drop from last Monday this week, it was still $45k, so we're not going to see next to nothing numbers like I thought we'd be seeing now until next week.
We are at the end stage of the box office for this though, regardless, and I doubt very much that BB gets 12 weeks in the theaters like Black Adam did.
After Monday, Blue Beetle needs $4,807,210 to beat Shazam II.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
8 weeks in and we're at $128,062,513 Worldwide, or $722,976 more than last week.
Somehow, beyond all logic, this one is stubbornly persisting at the very tail end of its run, even in the Domestic box office. Yesterday it made $77,390. That doesn't even make any sense. It only made $45,615 last Monday, so it's up 70% this Monday.
Oh... Nevermind. It was Columbus Day (or what most government employees probably refer to as Indigenous People's Day). You know that crowd is the type that would go see Blue Beetle for the 4th time.
Tuesday should be about $30-$35k and Wednesday and Thursday should be in the $20-$25k range.
We're quibbling over pennies at this point though. It ultimately did better than I predicted it would, but not by much. It's still lost Warner Bros a ton of money and it still could make less than Shazam II.
Blue Beetle still needs $4,129,849 to beat Shazam II.
NOTE: BoxOfficeMojo reports that Blue Beetle's Worldwide Gross is $128,563,796. In that case, Blue Beetle needs $3,628,566 to beat Shazam II.
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