Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
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Ukraine’s Smallest Drones Are Decimating Russia’s Heavy Artillery
Ukrainian forces are making increasing use of FPV kamikazes, racing quadcopters modified into loitering munitions by the addition of an RPG warhead and an outsize battery. They look ungainly, but FPVs are highly effective at hitting targets several miles away; a skilled operator can put one right through a specific window. And volunteer groups are making them in vast numbers – one group, Escadrone, say their production alone is up to 1,500 a month and rising and there are several others equally active. Each drone costs less than $400 to produce, just add your own RPG warhead.
Commercial racing FPVs are designed very much for speed and agility rather than range. Ukrainian engineers will have their own priorities, and some recent designs may be optimized for long-range strike. Exactly how much performance they can squeeze out of a small drone is anyone’s guess.
In the longer run though, several Ukrainian groups are already working on aircraft-type FPVs which will be able to strike much further. Again, how far is a matter of speculation, but some hobbyists claim ranges of 100km from the Skywalker X8. This is a drone which is popular among developers and previously been outfitted as a loitering munition by ISIS.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/09/ukraines-smallest-drones-are-decim
ating-russias-heavy-artillery/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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“The Ukrainians are defending the legal order established after the Second World War. They have performed the entire NATO mission of absorbing and reversing an attack by Russia with a tiny percentage of NATO military budgets and zero losses from NATO members. Ukrainians are making a war in the Pacific much less likely by demonstrating to China that offensive operations are harder than they seem. They have made nuclear war less likely by demonstrating that nuclear blackmail need not work. Ukraine is also fighting to restore its grain exports to Africa and Asia, where millions of people have been put at risk by Russia’s attack on the Ukrainian economy. Last but not least, Ukrainians are demonstrating that a democracy can defend itself.
(snip)
“This war will not end because of one sudden event, but nor will it go on indefinitely. When and how it ends depends largely on us, on what we do, on how much we help. Even if we did not care at all about Ukrainians (and we should), getting this war to end with a Ukrainian victory would be by far the best thing Americans could do for themselves. Indeed, I do not think that, in the history of US foreign relations, there has ever been a chance to secure so much for Americans with so little effort by Americans. I do hope we take that chance.”
https://angrybearblog.com/2023/09/ukraine-update
Read the full article here: https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-state-of-the-war
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:By being inveigled into trying to ethnically cleanse their eastern oblasts and provoke Russia, thereby providing the west with an excuse for "sanctions from hell"?
0riginally posted by second:
“The Ukrainians are defending the legal order established after the Second World War.
Oh BTW I have news for you: If Russia miscalculated their first military approach, hoping to scare Kiev into negotiating, the collective west REALLY miscalcuated their sanctions! They really believed those sanctions would bring Russia to its knees, and just to make sure that Germany and other N EU nations couldn't negotaite their way around them, they blew up Nordstream. Well the sanctions haven't crippled Russia yet, but they HAVE bommeranged in the form of inflation and de-industrialization in the EU.
Quote:How many hundreds of billions of weapons in dollars/Euros has NATO sent to Ukraine since 2014? How many hundreds of billions of dollars/Euros has NATO send in direct cash assistance since 2014? What has happened to the European and UK economies as a result of sanctions ... oh, and blowing up Nordstream?
They have performed the entire NATO mission of absorbing and reversing an attack by Russia with a tiny percentage of NATO military [bloated military] budgets
Try as I might, I can't find a total figure, and I don't have time to total it up, but I'll bet it's a over a trillion.
Quote:Oh, baloney. There were NATO officials, officially from NATO, in those command centers that were blown up. NATO can't admit it, of course, bc they were there.
and zero losses from NATO members.
Quote:The only reason why this might be so is because the USA (and NATO) are currently occupied in Ukraine.
Ukrainians are making a war in the Pacific much less likely by demonstrating to China that offensive operations are harder than they seem.
The prediction is that the collective west will cut Ukraine loose to focus on China, and we will do EVERYTHING possible to provoke war with China over Taiwan. Eventually, we will push hard enough on THEIR 'red lines', whether its flying our planes through their airspace or steaming our carrier groups though their waters or arming Taiwan with nuclear-capable missile installations, or regime-changing nations on China's border, or interfering again in Taiwanese elections. We'll do something to force China's hand.
Quote:China's nuclear policy, unlike Russia's, is 'no first use'.
They have made nuclear war less likely by demonstrating that nuclear blackmail need not work.
Bet you didn't know that, did you?
That puts China in a vulnerable position. And of course, we'll never know whether China is fully committed to that policy until nuclear missiles are flying, but that also makes it MUCH less likely to portray China as a nuclear boogeyman. Unless, of course, you're OK with lying.
Quote:Again, I call bullshit
Ukraine is also fighting to restore its grain exports to Africa and Asia
First of all, it's been heavily documented that Urkainian grain was almost completely absorbed BY EUROPE as ANIMAL FEED to keep food inflation lower than it might be otherwise, bc important elections are coming up* and inflation, which is already high there, is a politically sensitive topic. (*This year, Luxemburg Parliament, Polish Parliament, Swiss Federal, and Spanish general elections. Next year Finnish Presidential, Lithuanian Presidential, Belgian national Parliament, Austrian Natinal Parliament, and important regional parliaments in Germany). https://europeelects.eu/calendar/
Inflation in the EU region:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation-rate-in-e
u-countries/
Secondly, if the collective west was REALLY interested in the grain deal, they would have KEPT THEIR END OF THE BARGAIN, which was to reconnect Russia's agriculltural bank to the SWIFT, un-sanction Russian grain and fertilizer exports, and not use O
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Quote:The state of the war, Thoughts from Kyiv
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
This is a carefully-constructed load of manipulative hogwash. Nearly everything in it is counterfactual, and the parts that aren't are pure copium. Yep, angrybear, gonna flush you down the crapper!
Timothy Snyder, Sep 7, 2023
Greetings from Kyiv. I have spent the last several days in Ukraine, here in the capital, and in the southerly regions of Odesa, Mykolaïv, and Kherson, trying to get a sense of the state of the war. I will write more about the experience, but I thought that it might be a good time to share my most general sense.
It is a crucial moment, partly because of what is happening, and partly because of our own sense of time. One and a half years is an awkward period for us. We might like to think that it can be brought to a rapid conclusion, with this or that offensive weapon. When the war does not quickly end, we jump to the idea that it is a “stalemate,” which is a situation that lasts forever. This is false, and serves as a kind of excuse not to figure out what is going on. This is a war that can be won, but only if we are patient enough to see the outlines and the opportunities.
Russia’s gains in this invasion were made almost entirely during its first few weeks, in February and March 2022. Those gains were largely possible thanks to the fact that Russia had seized the Crimean Peninsula in its earlier invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Over the course of 2022, Ukraine won the battles of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, and took back about half of the territory Russia gained.
In the first half of 2023, Russia undertook an offensive that gained almost nothing but the city of Bakhmut. In the second half of this year Ukraine has undertaken a counter-offensive which has taken far more territory than did the Russian offensive, but which has not (yet) changed the overall strategic position (but could). In Russia, a military coup was attempted by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary group that took Bakhmut. He and Putin made a deal, after which Putin killed him. In a related development, Sergei Surovikin, probably the most capable Russian general, has been relieved of his command. Russia now has no meaningful offensive potential. Its strategy is to continue terror against civilians until Ukrainians can endure no longer. This, judging from my experience anyway, is not a tenable approach. On the other hand, Russia has had time to extensively fortify a long long of defense in the east and south, and to prepare for Ukrainian offensives. This makes Ukrainian offensives very difficult.
Ukraine did want to press forward last year, before the fortifications were built. It lacked the necessary weapons, and Elon Musk chose to cut Ukraine off from communications. That move likely extended the war. Because Musk’s decision was based on his internalization of Russian propaganda about nuclear war, and was accompanied by his repetition of that propaganda, he made a nuclear war more likely. If powerful men convey the message that just talking about nuclear war is enough to win conventional wars, then we will have more countries with nuclear weapons and more conventional wars that can escalate into nuclear ones. Ukraine has been resistant to this line of Russian fearmongering, fortunately for us all.
Ukraine did not have the arms it needed last year in part for the same reason: Americans allowed Russian propaganda to displace strategic calculation. By now, though, the American side has generally understood that Russia’s nuclear threat was a psychological operation meant to slow weapons deliveries. The United States and European partners have delivered arms to Ukraine, which has been absolutely indispensable. Historically speaking, though, the pace is slow. Fighter planes are coming, but a year late for the current offensive. So Ukrainians are now trying an offensive in conditions that American staff officers would find challenging. Americans take for granted economic superiority, prior
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Quote:Oh goody. More maniuplative "man on the street" "observations".
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
This is a carefully-constructed load of manipulative hogwash. Nearly everything in it is counterfactual, and the parts that aren't are pure copium. Yep, angrybear, gonna flush you down the crapper!
SECOND; The state of the war, Thoughts from Kyiv
Timothy Snyder, Sep 7, 2023
Greetings from Kyiv. I have spent the last several days in Ukraine, here in the capital, and in the southerly regions of Odesa, Mykolaïv, and Kherson, trying to get a sense of the state of the war. I will write more about the experience, but I thought that it might be a good time to share my most general sense.
Quote:AWKWARD?? This is an AWKAWRD time? It's 'awkward' bc the collecive west is running out of weapons it and money it can credibly funnel to Ukraine. The cupboard is bare, and the "allies" definitely don't want to become cannon fodder themselves.
It is a crucial moment, partly because of what is happening, and partly because of our own sense of time. One and a half years is an awkward
Nobody could be that stupid as to believe this load of crap. Synder is a plant.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Quote:
US Intel Official: Media Misleading Americans About Ukraine’s Battlefield Success
Kyle Anzalone
In an interview with renowned reporter Seymour Hersh, https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/why-putin-killed-prigozhin a US intelligence official scolded the media for misleading the American public about Ukraine’s battlefield failures during the Spring counteroffensive. The unnamed official additionally told Hersh he believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the assassination of PMC Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin to deescalate tensions with NATO.
Responding to reports in recent weeks that Ukrainian forces were gaining momentum and recapturing territory, the official remarked, “Where are the reporters getting this stuff?” he asked. “There are stories talking about drunk Russian commanders while the Ukrainians are penetrating the three lines of Russian defense and will be able to work back to Mariupol.”
He continued, “The goal of Russia’s first line of defense was not to stop the Ukrainian offense, but to slow it down so if there was a Ukrainian advance, Russian commanders could bring in reserves to fortify the line.” The official added, “There is no evidence that Ukrainian forces have gotten past the first line. The American press is doing anything but honest reporting on the failure thus far of the offense.”
MORE AT https://news.antiwar.com/2023/09/07/us-intel-official-media-misleading
-americans-about-ukraines-battlefield-success/
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Quote:You misspelled Snyder so it is not surprising you could not find him or his books using Google:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Nobody could be that stupid as to believe this load of crap. Synder is a plant.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Timothy+Snyder
Snyder is real and Signym is real crazy.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Prigozhin's March on Moscow
Ten lessons from a mutiny
by Timothy Snyder, Jun 25, 2023
How to understand Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow and its sudden end? Often there are plots without a coup; this seemed like a coup without a plot. Yet weird as the mercenary chief’s mutiny was, we can draw some conclusions from its course and from its conclusion.
1. Putin is not popular. All the opinion polling we have takes place in an environment where his power is seen as more or less inevitable and where answering the question the wrong way seems risky. But when Putin’s power was lifted, as when the city of Rostov-on-Don was seized by Wagner, no one seemed to mind. Reacting to Prigozhin's mutiny, some Russians were euphoric, and most seemed apathetic. What was not to be seen was anyone in any Russian city spontaneously expressing their personal support for Putin, let alone anyone taking any sort of personal risk on behalf of his regime.
The euphoria suggests to me that some Russians are ready to be ruled by a different exploitative regime. The apathy indicates that most Russians at this point just take for granted that they will be ruled by the gangster with the most guns, and will just go on with their daily lives regardless of who that gangster happens to be.
2. Prigozhin was a threat to Putin, because he does much the same things that Putin does, and leverages Putin's own assets. Both the Russian state itself and Prigozhin's mercenary firm Wagner are extractive regimes with large public relations and military arms.
The Putin regime exists, and the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg are relatively wealthy, thanks to the colonial exploitation of hydrocarbon resources in Siberia. The wealth is held by a very few people, and the Russian population is treated to a regular spectacle of otherwise pointless war -- Ukraine, Syria, Ukraine again -- to distract attention from this basic state of affairs, and to convince them that there is some kind of external enemy that justifies it (hint: there really isn't).
Wagner functioned as a kind of intensification of the Russian state, doing the dirtiest work beyond Russia, not only in Syria and Ukraine but also in Africa. It was subsidized by the Russian state, but made its real money by extracting mineral resources on its own, especially in Africa. Unlike most of its other ventures, Wagner's war in Ukraine was a losing proposition. Prigozhin leveraged the desperation of Russia's propaganda for a victory by taking credit for victory at Bakhmut. That minor city was completely destroyed and abandoned by the time Wagner took it, at the cost of tens of thousands of Russian lives.
But because it was the only gain in Russia's horrifyingly costly but strategically senseless 2023 offensive, Bakhmut had to be portrayed by Putin's media as some kind of Stalingrad or Berlin. Prigozhin took advantage of this. He was able to direct the false glory to himself even as he then withdrew Wagner from Ukraine. Meanwhile he criticized the military commanders of the Russian Federation in increasingly vulgar terms, thereby preventing the Russian state (and Putin) from gaining much from the bloody spectacle of invaded Ukraine. In sum: Wagner was able to make the Putin regime work for it.
3. Prigozhin told the truth about the war. This has to be treated as a kind of self-serving accident: Prigozhin is a flamboyant and skilled liar and propagandist. But his pose in the days before his march on Moscow made the truth helpful to him. He wanted to occupy this position in Russian public opinion: the man who fought loyally for Russia and won Russia's only meaningful victory in 2023, in the teeth of the incompetence of the regime and the senselessness of the war itself.
I'm not sure enough attention has been paid to what Prigozhin said about Putin's motives for war: that it had nothing to do with NATO enlargement or Ukrainian aggression, and was simply a matter of wishing to dominate Ukraine, replace its regime
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
I see signym is confessing to living with a drunk. That explains where a lot of her anger comes from.
T
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Elon Musk secretly ordered his engineers to turn off his company’s Starlink satellite communications network near the Crimean coast last year to disrupt a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet, according to an excerpt adapted from Walter Isaacson’s new biography of the eccentric billionaire titled “Elon Musk.”
As Ukrainian submarine drones strapped with explosives approached the Russian fleet, they “lost connectivity and washed ashore harmlessly,” Isaacson writes.
Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/07/politics/elon-musk-biography-walter
-isaacson-ukraine-starlink/index.html
Here is Walter Isaacson's version:
Although he had readily supported Ukraine, he believed it was reckless for Ukraine to launch an attack on Crimea, which Russia had annexed in 2014....The [Russian] ambassador had explicitly told him that a Ukrainian attack on Crimea would lead to a nuclear response. Musk explained to me in great detail, as I stood behind the bleachers, the Russian laws and doctrines that decreed such a response.
Throughout the evening and into the night, he personally took charge of the situation. Allowing the use of Starlink for the attack, he concluded, could be a disaster for the world. So he secretly told his engineers to turn off coverage within 100 kilometers of the Crimean coast. As a result, when the Ukrainian drone subs got near the Russian fleet in Sevastopol, they lost connectivity and washed ashore harmlessly.
In Musk's version, he was asked to activate coverage around Crimea to support an "obvious" Ukrainian attack. In Isaacson's version, he deactivated coverage that already existed and didn't tell anyone. The attack went forward and failed.
There's a big difference between the two. Isaacson's version seems most likely to be the true one, which means Musk is lying to make himself look better. I'm surprised that more people haven't commented on this difference in their stories.
https://jabberwocking.com/did-elon-musk-deactivate-starlink-coverage-a
round-crimea/
Elon Musk forced a Ukrainian attack that had already been launched to fail, which is not the same thing as preventing the attack from happening.
Musk turned off StarLink coverage after the attack was launched without telling Ukraine so their resources are wasted and their plan exposed precisely aids the Russian cause.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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