Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
PAGE 467 of 1104
Wow, you DO cling to your narrative, don't you SECOND?
You want to know how I know you're lying?
It's whenever you post.
*****
Meanwhile, in the real world.... Russia will come out from behind their defenses when they think the Ukrainian army has been attrited enough to offer little resistance. Until then, they're perfectly willing to let the Ukrainian military impale itself on their defenses. There are a few good reasons why:
It reduces Russian losses. Defenders survive better than attackers, especiallly with well-constructed fortifications defended by an array of weapons, from long range (striking in the far distant rear of Ukie military) to artillery, drones, tanks, mortars and helicopter gunships.
It increases Ukrainian losses. In this era of universal ISR there's no such thing as gathering your forces for a blitzkreig/ surprise/ combined arms attack. Bc once you've collected your forces, you become a juicy target. The Pentagon seems to want Ukraine to do just that. It's a criminal waste of Ukrainian lives, and yet despite Ukraine taking horrific losses during their "counteroffensive" - with little territorial gains to show for it - the Pentagon (or whoever is driving this bus. Nuland, maybe?) apparently hasn't learned. I've posted this before: the worst thing Ukraine can do to Russia is go on the defensive.
It reduces infrastructural destruction. By fighting on essentially static lines, fewer hamlets/villages/towns are detroyed.
According to Andrei Martyanov, Russia's MoD has this all calculated with a series of differential equations: Rate of supply and rate of delivery minus rate of fire/loss. And they supposedly have this calculated for Ukraine as well.
So they have a rough idea, for example, when Ukraine will run out of 155 mm shells: A trickle arriving from the west minus the weapons stores Russia can destroy from a distance is the maximum average rate of Ukrainian fire.
Ditto such things as drones, tanks, APCs, air defenses, even including trained soldiers. The west is scraping the barrel bottom, and coming up with alternates ... cluster munitions instead of explosive 155mm shells, depleted uranium shells, Abrams tanks (too heavy, not suited to most Ukrainian bridges or mud), cross border attacks on civilian targets (terror attacks, good for Ukrainian morale but not much else), sabotage attacks etc.
Supposedly Kiev is planning on drafting a whole new batch of soldiers (200,000) this winter, and up to 300,000 in srping. Reaching a long arm into Germany, Poland etc to grab back military-age men who fled the war. In order to make it stick, they fired all of the recruiters bc of extensive bribe-taking. The collective west plans a new tranche of weapons in spring (I think) - F-16s, Abrams tanks, Leopard 1s, possibly long-range cruise missiles.
So the question for Russia is, do they attack in winter (when the ground is frozen and armored vehicles can move more freely) or withstand the next tranche of attacks some time in spring, and attrit Ukrainian forces and NATO spare weapons once and for all?
It seems a close call to me. There is the rsik that the longer this drags on and the more desperate the State Dept/ Biden* neocons get, the more likely they will escalate to something ridiculously dangerous: tactical nukes, false flag, direct NATO involvement, infrastructural attacks elsewhere (South Stream, commercial shipping, Syria). Something stupid like that.
OTOH, as long as NATO keeps things conventional, Russia can probably outlast the collective west's last gasp, and having Project Ukraine go up in flames next summer would be a image that would be hard for necons of BOTH parties to shake.
What do you think?
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Quote:Russia has the same attitude as North Korea does. North Korea has been predicting imminent victory against South Korea for 70 years and Russia has been predicting the same against Ukraine for two years. In North Korean and Russian imaginations, when the time is right, but soon, North Koreans shall defeat South Korea (Ukraine in Russia's case) and humble the USA (EU in Russia's case).
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
What do you think?
The USA never stopped supporting South Korea and the EU will never stop supporting Ukraine. Perhaps Russia will be predicting its victory in Ukraine for the next 70 years, but the victory won't arrive. That's my prediction -- Russia will be endlessly hostile toward Ukraine, but never achieves a permanent victory, only periods of less hostility before the next military attack by Russia on Ukraine.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Maybe in your case, SECOND, I should have shortened the question to "Do you think?"
To me, west's support of Ukraine sounds a lot like us predicting victory in Vietnam.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Quote:Between 1979 and 1991, there was 12 years of war between China and Vietnam. China lost, despite being richer, larger, more populous, better armed, etc.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Maybe in your case, SECOND, I should have shortened the question to "Do you think?"
To me, west's support of Ukraine sounds a lot like us predicting victory in Vietnam.
The Ukrainian War could go the same direction for 12 years. China finally realized it was wasting time, money, life itself and decided to quit the war-making on Vietnam. If you didn't notice, quitting made China prosperous. Quitting would make Russia prosperous.
Sino-Vietnamese conflicts (1979–1991)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_conflicts_(1979%E2%80%93
1991)#Background
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:Quote:Between 1979 and 1991, there was 12 years of war between China and Vietnam. China lost, despite being richer, larger, more populous, better armed, etc.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Maybe in your case, SECOND, I should have shortened the question to "Do you think?"
To me, west's support of Ukraine sounds a lot like us predicting victory in Vietnam.
The Ukrainian War could go the same direction for 12 years. China finally realized it was wasting time, money, life itself and decided to quit the war-making on Vietnam. If you didn't notice, quitting made China prosperous. Quitting would make Russia prosperous.
Sino-Vietnamese conflicts (1979–1991)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_conflicts_(1979%E2%80%93
1991)#Background
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
First of all there wasn't '12 years of war between Chian and Vietnam'. There was a brief border conflict in 1979 that lasted less than a month, and intermittent border clashes to 1991. It was hardly an existential, industrial-scale war between China and Vietnam, and nothing like OUR massive effort that took 50,000 American and roughly 2 million southeast Asian lives.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War
My god, son, you lie about EVERYTHING, don't you? I can't imagine what it must be like living in that head of yours, and I'm not sure I want to find out.
Also, I don't know if you noticed, but Russia isn't fighting Ukraine, it's fighting NATO in Ukraine. And Ukraine isn't fighting a war on it's own behalf, it's fighting a proxy war, armed and directed by the USA which has a habit of losing wars against smaller weaker nations like Vietnam and Afganistan.
Yanno, maybe if the UNITED STATES stopped war-making across the globe, WE could be prosperous.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Russian State TV Threatens Nuclear Strike on US
By Brendan Cole On 9/4/23
"The most important message we should send to the Americans is that we will not wage war with you in Europe. In response to your attacks on Russian military or civilian facilities, the first strike will be a preventative limited strike against targets on the territory of the United States of America, " he told the anchor of 60 Minutes, Yevgeny Popov. Last week, Russia announced that its Sarmat strategic missile system, which can reach the U.S., had been put on combat duty.
https://www.newsweek.com/kremlin-nuclear-strike-us-popov-korotchenko-1
824285
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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We, the Unsited States, have ringed Moscow with nuclear misiles and nuclear capable facilities (Poland, Romania) within minutes of Moscow.
Quote:
Beyond the alliance’s three nuclear powers [USA, UK, France], five others participate in U.S. nuclear sharing: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. Seven more participate in the Support of Nuclear Operations With Conventional Air Tactics (SNOWCAT), providing assistance in nuclear missions through conventional air support: Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland and Romania. All 30 members of the alliance excluding France are also a part of the Nuclear Planning Group, which discusses policy issues. The North Atlantic Council remains NATO’s ultimate authority, and member states retain control over their own nuclear forces.
The United States and its NATO allies do not disclose exact figures for its European-deployed stockpiles. In 2021, it is estimated that there are 100 U.S.-owned nuclear weapons stored in five NATO member states across six bases: Kleine Brogel in Belgium, Büchel Air Base in Germany, Aviano and Ghedi Air Bases in Italy, Volkel Air Base in the Netherlands, and Incirlik in Turkey. The weapons are not armed or deployed on aircraft; they are instead kept in WS3 underground vaults in national airbases, and the Permissive Action Link (PAL) codes used to arm them remain in American hands. To be used, the bombs would be loaded onto dual-capable NATO-designated fighters. Each country is in the process of modernizing its nuclear-capable fighters to either the F-35A, the F-18 Super Hornet, or the Eurofighter Typhoon.
That cuts the Kremlin's nuclear response on a hair-trigger. There is no way to tell whther any particular nuclear-capable jet (such as, BTW, the F-16) is carrying nuclear warheads or not.
Somehow we did this with the supreme confidence that we Americans are protected by miles and miles of ocean on either side, and if anyone would be damaged by the fallout of an accidental nuclear exchange, it would be our allies pawns/ dupes in Europe.
Since the American elite apparently don't give a shit about Russian security or European fallout from a nuclear war, Moscow is telling our decision-makers that they, too, are in the crosshairs and need to consider their own personal safety.
They've made this statement many times. I think they're basically reminding USA decision-makers, who seem remarkably blase about nuclear war, not to resort to tactical nukes or large bombs on Russia. I think they're doing this because they project that American decision-makers will become politically desperate by summer 2024 because they're losing militarily and might resort to WMD.
I think the answer to this is simple: Don't escalate and bomb Russia. Keep the war geographically limited and don't use nukes.
BTW, America and the EU has been steadily escalating involvement in Ukraine. They crossed the many red lines that they initally set for themselves. The concern that they would cross this one, too, is well-founded.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Russia has North Korea’s backing / Ukraine has the EU’s backing
Kim Jong-un and Putin Plan to Meet in Russia to Discuss Weapons
Russia seeks more weaponry for its war in Ukraine, and a North Korean delegation recently traveled to Russia by train to plan for Mr. Kim’s visit this month, officials say.
By Edward Wong and Julian E. Barnes
Reporting from Washington
Sept. 4, 2023, 2:06 p.m. ET
Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, plans to travel to Russia this month to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin to discuss the possibility of supplying Russia with more weaponry for its war in Ukraine and other military cooperation, according to American and allied officials.
In a rare foray from his country, Mr. Kim would travel from Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital, probably by armored train, to Vladivostok, on the Pacific Coast of Russia, where he would meet with Mr. Putin, the officials said. Mr. Kim could possibly go to Moscow, though that is not certain.
Mr. Putin wants Mr. Kim to agree to send Russia artillery shells and antitank missiles, and Mr. Kim would like Russia to provide North Korea with advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines, the officials said. Mr. Kim is also seeking food aid for his impoverished nation.
Both leaders would be on the campus of Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok to attend the Eastern Economic Forum, which is scheduled to run Sept. 10 to 13, according to the officials. Mr. Kim also plans to visit Pier 33, where naval ships from Russia’s Pacific fleet dock, they said. North Korea celebrates the anniversary of its founding on Sept. 9.
On Wednesday, the White House warned that Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim had exchanged letters discussing a possible arms deal, citing declassified intelligence. A White House spokesman, John F. Kirby, said high-level talks on military cooperation between the two nations were “actively advancing.” U.S. officials declined to give more details on the state of personal ties between the leaders, who are considered adversaries of the United States.
The new information about a planned meeting between them goes far beyond the previous warning. The intelligence relating to the plans has not been declassified or downgraded by the United States, and the officials describing it were not authorized to discuss it. They declined to provide details on how spy agencies had collected the information.
While the White House declined to discuss the new intelligence, Adrienne Watson, a National Security Council spokeswoman, said in a statement that Sergei K. Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, traveled to North Korea, officially known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, to try to persuade Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition to Russia.
“As we have warned publicly, arms negotiations between Russia and the DPRK are actively advancing,” she said. “We have information that Kim Jong-un expects these discussions to continue, possibly to include high level diplomatic engagement in Russia.”
At other times since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials have released declassified intelligence to try to dissuade North Korea, China and other countries from supplying Russia with weapons. U.S. officials say White House warnings about planned transfers of North Korean artillery shells stopped previous cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.
In late August, a delegation of about 20 North Korean officials, including some who oversee security protocols for the leadership, traveled by train from Pyongyang to Vladivostok, and then flew to Moscow, an indication that North Korea was serious about a visit by Mr. Kim. Their trip, believed to be a planning expedition, took about 10 days, according to officials briefed on the intelligence reports.
One potential stop for Mr. Kim after Vladivostok, an official said, is Vostochny Cosmodrome, a space launch center that was the site of a meeting in April 2022 between Mr. Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a partner of Mr. Putin’s in t
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Russia doesn't need N Korea. But I'll bet they want to bring N Korea in from the cold.
Since the USA wants to make trouble anywhere it can (Africa, Mideast, Central Asia, Asia especially Taiwan, Thailand etc) I see this as a countermove on the Asian front.
There is a N Korea/Russian border, and Russia could pipe gas directly to N Korea and indirectly to S Korea and Japan, if S Korea and Japan will let them.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Quote:Russia should send food to North Korea. North Koreans can't eat H-bombs, one thing that is abundant there.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Russia doesn't need N Korea. But I'll bet they want to bring N Korea in from the cold.
Many stories over the years about Starvation North Korea
https://www.google.com/search?q=starvation+north+korea
One in particular: Food Distribution Suspended to High-Ranking Officials - July 28, 2023
In 2023, the situation worsened even further. Since January, rice supply has been cut off at food sales stations nationwide. Even in Pyongyang, food supply through sales stations has stopped in most areas. In fact, out of Pyongyang's 19 districts and 4 counties, 13 districts and all 4 counties have suspended supply through food sales stations.
In the remaining six central districts (Jung, Pothonggang, Moranbong, Songyo, Taedonggang, and Mangyongdae), rice was supplied through food sales stations until they were closed in May. High-ranking officials of the Workers' Party and the government used to receive food from exclusive supply stations until supplies ceased in June.
Military officers, security officers, and security guards received 700 grams (1.5 pounds) of food rations per person per day until May. But this was suspended in June 2023. Similarly, distributions to their families (500 grams or 1.1 pounds per person per day) have stopped since around November 2022. Some central government agencies and factories have purchased food on their own and distributed it to their employees.
North Korea's new "Arduous March" is currently underway. Many people are dying from diseases and starvation, as well as the freezing temperatures during the winter, even in the capital of Pyongyang.
https://japan-forward.com/speaking-out-mounting-deaths-in-north-korea-
as-famine-worsens/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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