The Blue Beetle Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, October 20, 2023 10:03
VIEWED: 4841
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Oh... and here's a little insight into how performance of movies at the box office works. Especially those on a downward trajectory out of the gates like all three of these DC flicks were.
If we're being optimistic, you're going to see a 40%-45% drop in worldwide box office per week from here on out. If we're being pragmatic, it's 50%.
Let's give it the benefit of the doubt and call it 40%.
It made roughly $19 Million worldwide in the last 7 days. (That number is high by probably $500k or so, but we'll call it $19 Million).
Week 4 it makes $11,400,000 worldwide.
Week 5 it makes $6,840,000 worldwide.
Week 6 it makes $4,104,000 worldwide.
Week 7 it makes $2,462,400 worldwide.
Week 8 it makes $1,477,440 worldwide.
Week 9 it makes $886,464 worldwide.
Week 10 it makes $531,878 worldwide.
Week 11 it makes $319,127 worldwide.
Week 12 it makes $191,476 worldwide.
Week 13 it makes $114,885 worldwide.
Week 14 it makes $68,931 worldwide.
Week 15 it makes $41,358 worldwide.
And that's assuming it gets that many weeks. Black Adam got 12 weeks. The Flash got 9 weeks. Shazam II only got 7 weeks.
Let's say it gets 12 weeks with its current worldwide gross at $101,874,000 3 weekends into the run.
After 4 weeks it's got $113,274,000 worldwide.
After 5 weeks it's got $120,114,000.
After 6 weeks it's got $124,218,000.
After 7 weeks it's got $126,680,400.
After 8 weeks it's got $128,157,840.
After 9 weeks it's got $129,044,304
After 10 weeks it's got $129,576,182
After 11 weeks it's got $129,895,309
After 12 weeks it's got $130,086,785.
Shazam's worldwide take after only 7 weeks? $132,192,362
Shazam II's drops started out bad, but then they fell off a fucking cliff after the 3rd weekend, and that's the real anomaly.
It's weekly Domestic Box Office drops were 66%, 50%, 65%, 83%, 80% and 56%.
Black Adam's drops were as follows: 58%, 33%, 58%, 29%, 45%, 48%, 17%, 61%, 79%, 22%, 69%.
If Blue Beetle manages to only lose 40% of its box office week after week from here on out (which would be considered AMAZING Barbie-like results given its performance so far), it doesn't even make more than Shazam's $132 Million Worldwide even if it was given the 12 weeks that Black Adam got before it was yanked.
So yeah... if you're wondering why so much emphasis is put on the Opening Weekend Box Office as well as the 2nd Weekend drop, well this is why.
Barbie is the number one movie in the world in 2023, but its Domestic box office dropoff per week has been as follows: 43%, 42%, 38%, 40%, 34%.
Barbie's opening weekend was also $356 Million worldwide vs. Blue Beetles' $43.4 Million, and Blue Beetles 2nd week Domestic dropoff was 53%. This is why even though Barbie has been in the theaters 4 full weeks longer than Blue Beetle, Barbie is still crushing BB every single day since Day 4, despite already seeing 5 weekly drops of 34% to 43% when BB has only had one recorded weekly drop of 53%.
And even though Blue Beetle's projected loss from Weekend 2 to Weekend 3 is only 40%, the weekly drop will be more than this, and next week will drop even harder because it only got propped up by the Holiday. It would have grossed $6 Million over the weekend instead of $7.3 Million, and it would have been another 51% drop like last weekend was, without the holiday.
It will get more money than it would have otherwise on Monday as well (possibly as much as it makes on Cheap Seat Tuesday even), but I expect Wednesday and Thursday's numbers for Blue Beetle to be no more than $370k and $320k. We're looking somewhere in the area of $1.5 Million between Monday and Thursday, which would be a 45% drop for the week. If it somehow managed $2 Million over the next 4 days because of the holiday, that would be a 42% drop.
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LOL... Wow did Blue Beetle get helped by the Holiday weekend. New projections for the entire weekend came in along with Monday's projections. Here's what they looked like yesterday:
Blue Beetle's 3rd weekend (PROJECTED):
Friday: $1,550,000
Saturday: $2,720,000
Sunday: $3,000,000
TOTAL: $7,270,000
And here's what they look like now...
Blue Beetle's 3rd weekend (PROJECTED):
Friday: $1,555,000 (+$5k)
Saturday: $2,735,000 (+$15k)
Sunday: $2,825,000 (-$175k)
WEEKEND TOTAL: $7,115,000 (-$155k)
Monday: $2,120,000
It only pulled in $684k on Thursday and $1.5 Million on Friday, so on a normal Monday it should have only pulled in about $400 to $420k max.
Yeah... when I said that it would probably do better than Cheap Seat Tuesday on the holiday that was an understatement, if those projections are right.
It's going to get about $700-$800k on Tuesday, and both Thursday and Friday will be somewhere in the $300-$400k range.
I still don't think it will change my numbers I predicted in the future too much, other than giving it a temporary boost, and possibly a little bit of a higher start to the drops now that it should only drop 40% from last week with that high Monday number. (It might even bump the Domestic/International percentage up from 56%/44% to 57%/44%.)
That may be enough to save some theaters it would have lost next week too.
So now I'm thinking that it just might beat Shazam II. It will be close now. Not that this is anything to celebrate since it will still lose around $100 to $160 Million before it's out of theaters.
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Hmmmmmmm....
It looks as though it's still yet to come out in Australia and New Zealand on the 14th.
I've heard Twitter/Reddit rumors that it's also releasing in China on the 14th as well, although I haven't seen any reputable movie site state this and it's not on the list of countries showing it on The-Numbers.com.
With Australia/NZ's help alone, it's already beat Shazam II. Probably by $3-$10 Million.
Even if it gets released in China it's still a loser at the Box Office, but not as big a loser as it would have been. It all depends on how burnt out China is on superhero movies. Black Adam didn't get released in China, and Shazam II made only $6 Million there.
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It appears that all speculation needs to just be thrown out the window right now.
https://screenrant.com/blue-beetle-streaming-release-date-information/
It's confirmed to get a release in Australia and New Zealand on the 14th, and a release in China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea on the same day are just rumors.
Also a rumor is that it will be released for online digital purchase in "mid-September" by Screen Rant, with an actual date of September 19th "confirmed" by some shady-looking sites that I believe are pulling that date right out of their asses.
These are VERY hard numbers to research because it looks like these online outfits use the same terminology somewhat interchangeably for "available for online PURCHASE" and available to stream on a platform. I knew that The Flash wasn't available for streaming until August 25th, which was 70 days after its theatrical release, but it appears that it was available for online purchase after only 32 days.
So... if true, the ability to purchase online only 5 days after entering at least 3 more international markets is probably not going to be good news for Blue Beetle. I don't have a lot of experience tracking this behavior though. It's hard to say by looking at numbers for The Flash and determining the impact. After 32 days of release, the largest weekend to weekend drops had already occurred for The Flash and the damage had already been largely done. It only made $750k the following weekend, but it had already made just $2.2 Million the weekend before (weekend 4).
And right around $3 Million on Weekend 4 for Blue Beetle seems to be a pretty safe bet.
Who knows?
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Blue Beetle (2023-) #1
https://readcomicsonline.ru/comic/blue-beetle-2023/1/1
https://getcomics.org/dc/blue-beetle-1-2023/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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And so it begins...
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah... when I said that it would probably do better than Cheap Seat Tuesday on the holiday that was an understatement, if those projections are right.
It's going to get about $700-$800k on Tuesday, and both Thursday and Friday will be somewhere in the $300-$400k range.
Actual BO for Cheap Seat Tuesday: $572,109.
With summer and the Holiday weekend behind it, the fall will be quick.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
And so it begins...Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah... when I said that it would probably do better than Cheap Seat Tuesday on the holiday that was an understatement, if those projections are right.
It's going to get about $700-$800k on Tuesday, and both Thursday and Friday will be somewhere in the $300-$400k range.
Actual BO for Cheap Seat Tuesday: $572,109.
With summer and the Holiday weekend behind it, the fall will be quick.
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How you do anything is how you do everything.
Wednesday's Projection: $345,000.
Yup.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (September 3rd):
If we're being optimistic, you're going to see a 40%-45% drop in worldwide box office per week from here on out. If we're being pragmatic, it's 50%.
Let's give it the benefit of the doubt and call it 40%.
It made roughly $19 Million worldwide in the last 7 days. (That number is high by probably $500k or so, but we'll call it $19 Million).
Week 4 it makes $11,400,000 worldwide.
Week 5 it makes $6,840,000 worldwide.
...
And that's assuming it gets that many weeks. Black Adam got 12 weeks. The Flash got 9 weeks. Shazam II only got 7 weeks.
Let's say it gets 12 weeks with its current worldwide gross at $101,874,000 3 weekends into the run.
After 4 weeks it's got $113,274,000 worldwide.
After 5 weeks it's got $120,114,000.
...
Even though we've seen a 55% drop on Tuesday and a 56% drop on Wednesday from the previous week, if we assume only a 40% drop for the rest of the week through Sunday, that will be a Domestic total of $7,336,938, which includes the $2,312,258 it got on Labor Day Monday which was an increase of 167% from the Monday before it.
Now trying to figure out international numbers on the daily is difficult because of how they're tracked, but I was able to manage to figure out that it made (roughly) $18 Million internationally on both its 1st weekend, and then a repeat $18 for its entire second week.
How did I figure this out?
Well... Opening weekend numbers are easy to come by in the media for big budget movies.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/conormurray/2023/08/21/blue-beetle-posts-
second-lowest-dc-extended-universe-opening-weekend-heres-the-full-ranking/?sh=51c27c8f3160
Quote:
Blue Beetle has also grossed $18 million at the international box office so far, bringing its global total to $43.4 million.
But since I've been tracking progress here in this thread, I was able to dig up my own post from Sunday, August 27th:
Quote:
Blue Beetle makes only $82 Million worldwide in first 10 days.
If you look at Bruce's charts, Blue Beetle had just shy of $46 Million on Day 10 (Sunday). So we had another $18 Million for 7 days after the first $18 Million for 3 days internationally, which adds up to $82 Million. (And we can easily infer that the new international numbers had been posted by Bruce by afternoon on Sunday the 27th because that's when I said the worldwide total for 10 days was $82 Million and that $18 Million didn't exist the week before).
As of Sunday, September 3rd, Blue Beetle had $56,418,800 Domestically, and internationally it's currently at $45,900,000. $46-$18-$18 = $10 Million added for the next 7 days internationally.
$10 Million from $18 Million is a 45% drop from the previous week.
To be conservative, let's assume another 45% drop this week for $5.5 Million to be posted on Sunday, September 10th.
With the $7,336,938 Domestic assuming only a 40% drop every day from Thursday to Sunday, that will total $12,836,938 worldwide once Sunday's numbers are reported.
That's $1,436,938 more than I predicted on September 3rd that Blue Beetle would add to its total over the next 7 days, but that also includes a Holiday Monday where it got $2,312,258 which was +167% from the prior Monday. H
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Blue Beetle loses 530 theaters.
I still think that the holiday weekend saved it from losing as much as it should have, but apparently the last 2 days of really bad numbers were enough to still lose over 500.
It made $104 per theater on only its 20th day Wednesday. There's a chance it could go under $100 per theater Thursday night.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Blue Beetle loses 530 theaters.
I still think that the holiday weekend saved it from losing as much as it should have, but apparently the last 2 days of really bad numbers were enough to still lose over 500.
It made $104 per theater on only its 20th day Wednesday. There's a chance it could go under $100 per theater Thursday night.
Blue Beetle drops 59% on Thursday from last weekend for only $280k projected.
$84 per theater on Day 21.
If it only sees a 40% drop the next three days, it grosses $7,778,921 Domestic since Labor Day.
Its drops after raising 167% on the holiday from the week before were 55% on Tuesday, 56% on Wednesday, and 59% on Thursday.
If it drops 55% on average this weekend, it grosses $6,711,709 Domestic since Labor Day.
With $4.5 to $5.5 Million likely internationally, its range is between $11.2M and $13.3M added to the figure of just shy of $102 Million it had after Sunday night's and the international numbers were calculated after the weekend.
That's going to put it between $113.2 Million to $115.3 Million after Sunday night.
My prediction on September 3rd before the huge Labor Day gross was that it would have $113,274,000, based off of a 40% drop both Domestic and Worldwide.
My prediction off that model for the following week was $120,114,000.
Since 40% is not a thing that is going to be in Blue Beetle's future, I'd say that because of Labor Day Monday the number for Sunday night is pretty close to what reality will be, and that my numbers for week 4 onward are going to be progressively higher than reality every week.
Even though there's still no compelling evidence it's getting a release in China and Japan, it's still getting a release on 9/14 for Australia and New Zealand for sure, but after the first weekend that won't matter much since it looks as though if it's not getting a VOD release for purchase online on the 19th it will have one by the 26th.
Shazam II only grossed $4.2 Million in those countries combined, and unlike the month long delay before they got Blue Beetle, Shazam II was released in Australia and New Zealand on day one.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
If it only sees a 40% drop the next three days, it grosses $7,778,921 Domestic since Labor Day.
Bruce seems to think it's only going to drop 38% which would add $142,295 to that number, if true.
Quote:
Its drops after raising 167% on the holiday from the week before were 55% on Tuesday, 56% on Wednesday, and 59% on Thursday.
If it drops 55% on average this weekend, it grosses $6,711,709 Domestic since Labor Day.
With $4.5 to $5.5 Million likely internationally, its range is between $11.2M and $13.3M added to the figure of just shy of $102 Million it had after Sunday night's and the international numbers were calculated after the weekend.
That's going to put it between $113.2 Million to $115.3 Million after Sunday night.
So $115.5 worldwide is the high end prediction now.
I don't think Bruce is right, but I'm not going to argue it because of how weak the box office is suddenly looking. He's already not even mentioning The Equalizer 3 once in his weekly prediction article, and if you look at the weekdays this week for all the movies after Monday it looks like everybody in the country just collectively said "meh... I don't feel like going out to see a movie anymore".
I mean, really... Thursday's entire box office is probably the most pathetic thing I've ever seen on the-numbers.
34 different movies on offer and they couldn't even crack $10 Million nationwide. It wasn't all that long ago where Barbie was making that or close to it by itself on a weekday.
31 of the movies pulled in $625k or less. 26 of them pulled in less than $100k. 14 of them pulled in less than $50k. 10 of them pulled in less than $10k. 8 of them pulled in less than $5k.
And Insidious, Super Mario Bros, The Little Mermaid and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse are all a part of that sub $5k crowd. First of all, I thought Spider-verse was pulled from the theaters a week ago, and I've been saying for weeks all 4 of those need to be retired. Now they're all grossing $10 to $35 per theater. Not even worth keeping the lights on. Embarrassing.
The Nun II is going to be this weekends winner, but it pulled in less on previews than Blue Beetle did. Equalizer 3 made half of that last night. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 got just $550k on previews.
Blue Beetle could get a bump higher this weekend just from bored people who want to see a movie but aren't into action or horror flicks and just don't see anything else even worth paying for that they haven't already seen.
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