***** Sound of Freedom
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 23, 2024 03:13
VIEWED: 17421
PAGE 27 of 47
Quote:Ohhhhhh.... Right. Yeah. My bad.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Incorrect.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm not counting any of the numbers until Bruce posts them.
It will be interesting to see if they get the same numbers in the end or not. I'm not very impressed with how different their numbers are right now.
You're backwards on your NZ assessment.Quote:Correct. As reported on 28 August.
It made $275,871 on opening weekend.Quote:Correct. As reported on 28 August.
It now only has $266,958.
At the end of the weekend, by 27 August, it had made this much in total.Quote:
I've already posted about all of this 2 days ago.
Now I remember.
It had something small for New Zealand,like $5 or $6k up there at first, then it had the 266,958 total gross figure up the next week when it put the $257,871 Opening Weekend figure up.
Freakin' international accounting sucks.
You used data from Box office Mojo.
With Box Office Mojo, remembering things is not very important. They keep the data visible, or at least once they make the data available.
Here is the NZ summary for SoF:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2275836673/weekend/
Here is the 17Aug weekend for all releases:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2023W33/?area=NZ&ref_=bo_rl_
table_1
Here is the 24Aug weekend for all releases:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2023W34/?area=NZ&ref_=bo_rl_
table_2
Now, BOM does not list the data for weekdays AFAICS, but a minor amount of math will reveal that info, with the weekend data and total data taken into account.
A minor inconvenience compared to the abysmal lack of data at The Numbers.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
You used data from Box office Mojo.
With Box Office Mojo, remembering things is not very important. They keep the data visible, or at least once they make the data available.
Here is the NZ summary for SoF:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2275836673/weekend/
You clicked deeper than I did. I didn't realize you could do in-depth numbers for individual countries there. Noted.
Quote:
A minor inconvenience compared to the abysmal lack of data at The Numbers.
True, but not without its own problems. The bulk of international numbers so far have come out of Australia and for whatever reason BOM hasn't even listed them at all on the international tab.
This is why I'm not going to add any numbers on any of my various lists until they show up on The-Numbers for consistency. If it so happens that Bruce never adds these numbers from other countries that haven't made their way to his lists, I will have to do a little bit of research why this is the case and I will likely add the extra money to the lists at that time. Maybe I'll write my first email to him for clarification in that event.
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Saturday/Sunday's Numbers:
*NOTE: Since the numbers for SoF finally came out about an hour after writing this, I just edited the post with the actual information rather than update it. Also, new international numbers were just added to Talk To Me, so SoF falls behind TTM for the first time today. New international numbers were released for Barbie as well.
1. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,359% (+0%)
3. Talk to Me - 1,311% (+22% Domestic / +22 International)
4. Sound of Freedom - 1,307% (+0%)
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
6. Barbie - 952% (+5% Domestic / +17% International)
SoF needs 53% to beat SMB. (About $8 Million)
SoF needs 202% to beat M3GAN. (About $29 Million)
SoF needs 5% to beat Talk To Me (About $1 Million)
SoF is 355% above Barbie.
The numbers for Thursday through Sunday finally came in for SoF. It fell $95k short of another percentage bump from rounding. My prediction for the weekend was $800-$850k and it only made $762, at least as far as projections go. I had predicted that it would need to make $825k over the weekend without knowing what Thursday's numbers were, but even that would have been short since it did worse on Thursday than I thought it would.
It starts next week off with an advantage because of that, but I think it's probable it doesn't even get a second percentage bump by the end of next weekend even though it would only need $1.095 Million to do it. If that's the case, at least it should stave off having a week without a percentage bump for another 2 weeks now, even though they're only 7% each without international numbers.
I'd predicted that SoF would lose 200-600 theaters with my firm guess being 1,200 total. It was on the high end of that and lost 502 theaters and is now being shown in only 1,100.
Talk to Me now overtakes SoF with new international numbers coming in without even having to consider the 22% it would have gotten tomorrow anyhow. TTM is not actually going to get that bump now until Wednesday or Thursday because of rounding, so SoF will take back 3rd place for at least a few days with the 7% bump that it will get on Monday, but unless big international numbers start trickling in for SoF, TTM is going to take that right back by a lot and could pull too far away for SoF to catch up.
(Rememeber... SoF only gets 7-8% per $1 Million grossed while Talk To Me gets a 22-23% bump per $1 Million. And SoF isn't even going to pull in $1 Million on weekends Domestically starting this weekend while Talk To Me still does, and is grossing about 40% more per day than SoF has been).
With International numbers in, Barbie takes the crown of top grossing movie of 2023 by over $21 Million as of 09/03/2023.
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It looks like SoF came in 4th place in the UK on Friday with $216k (pounds?) and only 9th place on Saturday with $202k (pounds?). If that is Pounds and not Dollars already, that's a little over half a million dollars in its first two weekend days.
JSF's $14 Million dollar prediction for the UK was insanely optimistic. I'm guessing more like $2 Million. Maybe $3 Million if it's really lucky.
https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/168ja6s/united_kingdom_fri
day_september_1_box_office/
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Monday's Numbers:
*NOTE: It's almost 4PM and no real numbers have come in for any movies over the weekend. It looks like nothing is going to be updated until tomorrow. I'm going to put what I think happened on Monday though and we'll see tomorrow if I was right.
1. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,359% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,321% (+7% Domestic / +7% International)
4. Talk to Me - 1,311% (+0)
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
6. Barbie - 955% (+3%)
SoF needs 39% to beat SMB. (About $6 Million)
SoF needs 188% to beat M3GAN. (About $27 Million)
SoF is 10% above Talk To Me.
SoF is 366% above Barbie.
Talk To Me: As I said yesterday, this one isn't going up on Monday from rounding after the unexpected 2nd batch of international numbers came in this weekend. It's projected at making $473,840 on Monday, which still leaves it over $500k short of another bump. Cheap Seat Tuesday numbers will probably be similar to Monday's numbers. In any event, it should get the next percentage bump of 22% on Wednesday.
Sound of Freedom: It needs only $95k for a bump. It should get that on Monday in the Domestic BO easily with the holiday. If it weren't a holiday I'm not so sure it would have. I'm just guessing that we'll see between $1 Million and $1.5 Million added to the international total by tomorrow afternoon/night for the 2nd bump. It could (and probably should) be more than that, or we might not get any international update at all because who the hell knows what's going on with international numbers anyway.
This rise on Talk To Me might very well be the last time we see Sound of Freedom above TTM unless some massive international numbers start rolling in. Europe and Australia's numbers aren't going to cut it. It needs to play well in Mexico and Latin America or the best it can hope for is 3rd place now after overtaking Super Mario Bros.
Insidious: I missed the fact that Bruce didn't have any theater counts for this for the week, and only noticed it now when I saw that there were no new numbers for the movie all weekend. It appears that this run is done and I'll be able to add that to the finished movies on my main lists. Do expect some additional money to be added in the next month or so once international numbers are tallied.
Barbie: I'm going to call it $4 Million for Barbie on Monday. It's just about perfectly balanced between rounding up or down. I don't think it will make less than $3.5 Million or more than $4.5 Million on Monday, so that should be a safe bet. There shouldn't be any international surprises in the meantime since it got a massive 17% bump from international numbers already this weekend.
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Monday's Numbers (Update 09/05):
*NOTE: Barbie's Monday projection came in as did an update on the-numbers for SoF's international. This is the reason for the update.
1. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,359% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,321% (+14)
4. Talk to Me - 1,311% (+0)
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
6. Barbie - 954% (+2%)
SoF needs 39% to beat SMB. (About $6 Million)
SoF needs 188% to beat M3GAN. (About $27 Million)
SoF is 10% above Talk To Me.
SoF is 367% above Barbie.
Here's what I posted yesterday on each movie:
Quote:
Talk To Me: As I said yesterday, this one isn't going up on Monday from rounding after the unexpected 2nd batch of international numbers came in this weekend. It's projected at making $473,840 on Monday, which still leaves it over $500k short of another bump. Cheap Seat Tuesday numbers will probably be similar to Monday's numbers. In any event, it should get the next percentage bump of 22% on Wednesday.
Sound of Freedom: It needs only $95k for a bump. It should get that on Monday in the Domestic BO easily with the holiday. If it weren't a holiday I'm not so sure it would have. I'm just guessing that we'll see between $1 Million and $1.5 Million added to the international total by tomorrow afternoon/night for the 2nd bump. It could (and probably should) be more than that, or we might not get any international update at all because who the hell knows what's going on with international numbers anyway.
This rise on Talk To Me might very well be the last time we see Sound of Freedom above TTM unless some massive international numbers start rolling in. Europe and Australia's numbers aren't going to cut it. It needs to play well in Mexico and Latin America or the best it can hope for is 3rd place now after overtaking Super Mario Bros.
Insidious: I missed the fact that Bruce didn't have any theater counts for this for the week, and only noticed it now when I saw that there were no new numbers for the movie all weekend. It appears that this run is done and I'll be able to add that to the finished movies on my main lists. Do expect some additional money to be added in the next month or so once international numbers are tallied.
Barbie: I'm going to call it $4 Million for Barbie on Monday. It's just about perfectly balanced between rounding up or down. I don't think it will make less than $3.5 Million or more than $4.5 Million on Monday, so that should be a safe bet. There shouldn't be any international surprises in the meantime since it got a massive 17% bump from international numbers already this weekend.
Sound of Freedom: No Monday numbers for SoF yet, projections or otherwise. The money it needed on Monday Domestic to get a percentage bump is now moot however, since $1,236,173 has been added to the International total on The-Numbers from Australia and New Zealand, which alone was enough to get it over the first hump and secure the second bump. However, these are still the only two countries that Bruce has listed for international reporting as of morning 09/05, when we know full well there are quite a few others that need to be reported.
If no new international numbers come in for SoF soon, this is likely the last bump we'll see for the movie all week. SoF needs $844,673 more for the next bump, and unless it had a stellar performance on Monday, I doubt it's even going to get that much in the states from now through Sunday night.
Talk To Me: Something changed here, but it wasn't Monday's prediction. Talk To Me now only needs around $114k for its next percentage bump instead of over $500k. So it will take 3rd place back from Sound of Freedom with a 22% bump when Tuesday's numbers come in unless the 4 days of projections were far too optimistic.
Barbie: As for Barbie, it performed slightly worse on Monday than I thought it would, with only 3.25 Million projected, so it only go
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Bruce also has more data than I noticed before, historical snapshots including totals, weekend, and therefore mathing for weekdays.
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2023/09/01/New-Ze
aland
Also, this page:
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Sound-of-Freedom-(2023)/New-Zealand#
tab=box-office
includes the disclaimer which explains your numbers jumping around.
Bruce accepts data from other countries, using their local currentcy.
For his charts, he converts that to the USD using the exchange rate at the moment you look at it.
Which means that the data does not have the exchange rate locked in for the time that the Box Office occurred.
So with Bidenflation, the Brandon Dollar is falling against most other currencies in the world, and then there are occasional corrections. So other nations with large Box Office, which then have a currency change will have a large swing in value of the past weeks of Box Office.
Hope that helps.
Croatia and Colombia are added to SoF BO.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Bruce also has more data than I noticed before, historical snapshots including totals, weekend, and therefore mathing for weekdays.
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2023/09/01/New-Ze
aland
Also, this page:
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Sound-of-Freedom-(2023)/New-Zealand#
tab=box-office
includes the disclaimer which explains your numbers jumping around.
Bruce accepts data from other countries, using their local currentcy.
For his charts, he converts that to the USD using the exchange rate at the moment you look at it.
Which means that the data does not have the exchange rate locked in for the time that the Box Office occurred.
So with Bidenflation, the Brandon Dollar is falling against most other currencies in the world, and then there are occasional corrections. So other nations with large Box Office, which then have a currency change will have a large swing in value of the past weeks of Box Office.
Hope that helps.
Oh. Cool. Good information there. It certainly does explain the swings that look pretty wild from day to day sometimes for movies that have grossed as much as Super Mario Bros and Guardians of the Galaxy 3. I wonder when they lock numbers in. Do you know that?
Quote:
Croatia and Colombia are added to SoF BO.
Yes. I just noticed that on Box Office Mojo. Still don't even show up on Bruce's list at all though, of course. And none of the other countries that should have gotten an update by now have gotten one there yet.
So... Assuming that everything gets reconciled and both sites agree in the end, we're looking at $2,104,037 at BOM and $2,655,327 at the-numbers. And with only the first week reported in NZ at BOM being the overlap between them, that's about $4.4 Million that it's brought in internationally that's been reported so far, and just shy of $2 Million of that hasn't even been added to my own numbers yet. That's another 14%, and it brings SoF within 25% of SMB and only $4 Million more necessary to leapfrog SMB.
What did I tell you about the Hispanic countries? If this is going to win 2023 it's going to depend on them. $1.1 Million opening in Colombia where I wasn't even aware until 10 minutes ago it was being released? That's just a few bucks shy of what it got in Australia opening week. Bonus.
I'm still not going to add anything on my lists and figures until The-Numbers reports them for consistency, but this is all very much on my radar.
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Monday's Numbers (2nd Update 09/05):
*NOTE: SoF got a very late night update on the-numbers, so did Talk To Me.
1. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,359% (+0%)
3. Talk to Me - 1,333% (+22)
4. Sound of Freedom - 1,329% (+8)
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% [FINAL]
6. Barbie - 954% (+0%)
SoF needs 5% to beat Talk To Me. (About $1 Million)
SoF needs 31% to beat SMB. (About $5 Million)
SoF needs 180% to beat M3GAN. (About $26 Million)
SoF is 375% above Barbie.
SoF got $954,977 added from the UK for its first 4 days. This would be in line with what I had read from that twitter Box Office account that claimed it made 216k pounds and 202k pounds on Friday and Saturday night.
Grand international total at The-Numbers now is $3,610,304, and that still only has $266k overlap for the 1st week in New Zealand at BOM, which has the international at $2,014,037, so we're looking at just shy of $5.5 Million overseas so far.
This got SoF to its next percentage bump, which was another 8% this time instead of only 7% with rounding.
But speaking of rounding, this puts it just shy of needing $923k for the next percentage bump, which it probably isn't going to make this week in the US. Monday's numbers still aren't in, but I don't expect them to even break $180k on the Holiday. Cheap Seat Tuesday might see as much as $150k, but I don't even expect it to crack $100k on Wednesday or Thursday here. So if we're optimistic, it makes about $450k by the weekend. It's possible that it can make $923k by the end of the weekend, but I'd reckon it's not going to happen.
Its future is all in the hands of international audiences now, with only minor assistance here and there maybe to get it over the million dollar hump on occasion.
Talk to Me found more money and is just less than $48k shy of $60 Million on its $4.5 Million budget. It is now in 3rd place above SoF by 4% and would have to see huge numbers from Latino countries going out to see SoF to ever fall back below SoF again since it's still making gains and for every $1 Million it makes SoF needs almost $3 Million to keep pace.
But the cool news even if SoF finished 3rd for the year is that the 1st and 2nd place movies only had $16.5 Million production budgets combined, and all 3 of the top movies on the Worldwide Box Office vs Production Budget list for 2023 are going to have $30.5 Million Production budgets combined. If it weren't for SMB doing as well as it did, Insidious would have been number 4 and the top four would have been less than $47 Million combined.
With the 2.0 Rule of Thumb (which likely applies to low-budget flicks even in 2023), those 4 movies have made $520 Million for their studios. In total, these movies which had a combined production budget of $46.5 Million have grossed $613 Million.
They have made 1,318% over their combined budgets, and even with Insidious dragging them down with only 1,163%, it shouldn't be long before the 4 movies combined have out performed even the biggest budget movie in the top 5.
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Holy Moley...
I noticed a huge bump this morning after the bump last night for international numbers on Sound of Freedom.
It appears that Bruce got his numbers from Mexico in for 9/6 and its' pulled in $3,976,143 in its first week.
With the overlap between the two sites still only being the first week of New Zealand, we're looking at around just shy of $9.5 Million internationally.
As I said before, I don't expect Europe to be much help, but Latin countries are going to be the thing that could bump SoF to the top.
That's another 28%, putting SoF at 1,357%. Just 2% shy of Super Mario Bros' number today and already higher than the lowest number that SMB has been bouncing around up and down to for the last few weeks.
The next bump for SoF is $947.5k away from now, but when it happens it officially leaves Super Mario Bros in the dust and this has become just a three movie race.
And speaking of the race, it appears that Talk To Me found another $1 Million as well, bumping it up to 1,356%. I really think there's too much gas left it Talk To Me's tank for it not to beat Sound of Freedom with those percentage bumps that it gets every time it banks a million bucks.
I'll update the daily list later today when all the daily numbers come in.
ETA: I said this late last night in the last update, before the nearly $4 Million news from Mexico came in:
Quote:
$923k for the next percentage bump, which it probably isn't going to make this week in the US. Monday's numbers still aren't in, but I don't expect them to even break $180k on the Holiday. Cheap Seat Tuesday might see as much as $150k, but I don't even expect it to crack $100k on Wednesday or Thursday here. So if we're optimistic, it makes about $450k by the weekend. It's possible that it can make $923k by the end of the weekend, but I'd reckon it's not going to happen.
Its future is all in the hands of international audiences now, with only minor assistance here and there maybe to get it over the million dollar hump on occasion.
Well... It might have made that bump by the weekend. It appears that SoF did better on Monday than projected with an actual number of $337,389 (I believe the projections were in the $200k range?). But it only managed $103,552 on Cheap Seat Tuesday.
My guess is somewhere in the range of $70k per day the next two days, which still would have left it still needing $350k over the weekend. I think that would have been doable depending on how many theaters it loses.
It's all moot now, however. With $190,165,447 in the bank after all the international updates and Monday/Tuesday's take recorded, it only needs $334,101 for the next bump and even if we don't get any new international numbers until Sunday it's going to easily get that much Domestic for another bump.
So... with that next bump already set in stone for this week, SoF is only days away from 1,364% and leap-frogging Super Mario Bros. on the list. Depending on when numbers come in, Talk To Me may or may not beat SoF to the punch there since they're both just a bump away from doing that.
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