new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
PAGE 80 of 283
There's probably a million people with it in the States. Maybe ten. Twenty?
They've tested 41k as of yesterday. By the time they put a dent in testing, half the people they test will have already gotten over it and not even known they had it.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted coronavirus
The Guardian reports:
The small town of Vò, in northern Italy, where the first coronavirus death occurred in the country, has become a case study that demonstrates how scientists might neutralise the spread of Covid-19.
A scientific study, rolled out by the University of Padua, with the help of the Veneto Region and the Red Cross, consisted of testing all 3,300 inhabitants of the town, including asymptomatic people. The goal was to study the natural history of the virus, the transmission dynamics and the categories at risk.
The researchers explained they had tested the inhabitants twice and that the study led to the discovery of the decisive role in the spread of the coronavirus epidemic of asymptomatic people.
When the study began, on 6 March, there were at least 90 infected in Vò. For days now, there have been no new cases.
“We were able to contain the outbreak here, because we identified and eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at Imperial College London, who took part in the Vò project, told the Financial Times. “That is what makes the difference.”
The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic people who tested positive for Covid-19. “If these people had not been discovered,” said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly infected other inhabitants.
More at www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-ita
lian-town-have-halted-covid-19
Scientists find that up to 86 percent of coronavirus infections go undetected
GeekWire reports:
Computer modeling of the coronavirus outbreak’s course in China, in the weeks before a travel shutdown was imposed on Jan. 23, suggest that 86% of the infections went undocumented.
Those undocumented infections were about half as contagious as the documented cases, but were the source of two-thirds of the documented cases, according to a study published online today by the journal Science.
The findings parallel other research into the role of what’s known as stealth or cryptic transmission in spreading the potentially deadly virus. They also underscore the importance of widespread testing, even if patients aren’t experiencing serious symptoms, particularly during the early phases of transmission.
“More active testing procedures would catch more cases,” Columbia University’s Jeffrey Shaman, a co-author of the study, told reporters today. “How that would be implemented is something that we can debate for quite some time. And obviously this all has to be done under the backdrop of the logistics and costs of implementing lots more tests.”
Shaman and his colleagues tracked reports of infections in China from Jan. 10 to 23, and from Jan. 24 to Feb. 8, and fed those reports along with data about population mobility into their computer model.
When the researchers started putting their data together, they suspected the model would show that reported cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” for the spread of infection, Shaman said. That suspicion was based on past research involving more benign coronaviruses — such as those that cause the common cold. Such research suggested that most infections caused symptoms so mild that the people who had the virus didn’t bother to report them.
Their suspicion turned out to be correct. “It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” Shaman said.
More at www.geekwire.com/2020/scientists-find-86-percent-coronavirus-infection
s-go-unreported/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
When the researchers started putting their data together, they suspected the model would show that reported cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” for the spread of infection, Shaman said. That suspicion was based on past research involving more benign coronaviruses — such as those that cause the common cold. Such research suggested that most infections caused symptoms so mild that the people who had the virus didn’t bother to report them.
My post history shows that I suspected that long before they did then.
Quote:
Their suspicion turned out to be correct. “It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” Shaman said.
And according to this article, I was correct.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:You sound like Trump congratulating himself constantly, but Trump did not draw the obvious conclusion back in January: get as many tests per million people as S Korea has, for one country's example, even if Trump has to buy from S Korea the test kits and import the technicians to run the tests. In January, February, and March, until 3 days ago, he was saying his endless bullshit and lies about there was no pandemic to promote his reelection.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My post history shows that I suspected that long before they did then.
And according to this article, I was correct.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
ARTICLE: When the researchers started putting their data together, they suspected the model would show that reported cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” for the spread of infection, Shaman said. That suspicion was based on past research involving more benign coronaviruses — such as those that cause the common cold. Such research suggested that most infections caused symptoms so mild that the people who had the virus didn’t bother to report them.
SIX: My post history shows that I suspected that long before they did then.
ARTICLE: Their suspicion turned out to be correct. “It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” Shaman said.
SIX: And according to this article, I was correct.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Big fucking deal. I was posting about that all the way back at the beginning of this thread about the difficulty of calculating the case fatality rate without knowing the true rate of infection. Specifically, in the case of Wuhan, where test kits were initially in short supply and reserved for the more extreme cases for hospital admission, which would weight the case fatality rate high. I JUST posted about that again when thinking about a the utility of a serology test, which would reveal the true infection rate, not just the active infections.
Jeez, SIX, why don't you bother to read and comprehend what other people have posted?
BTW, that still doesn't take away from the fact that hospitals in China and Italy (and soon to be all of the EU and the UK, and probably the USA) will be overwhelmed with the sick and dying, forcing doctors to decide who should be treated and live, and who should be left to struggle on their own and most likely die. This is NOT a cold. This is NOT the flu. Colds and flus DON'T cause an overwhelming ... repeat, overwhelming ... surge in hospitalizations and deaths.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
And according to this article, I was correct.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
It's awfully lame taking a victory lap when you're in 24th place.
I was carping about it while you were still trying to tell everyone it was no big deal and that I shouldn't be posting about it.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I dunno.
I always said it wasn't a big deal.
Tests are coming out proving me right.
Big nothing burger.
Wowie!
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
On Friday the 13th, 2020, Trump declared SARS-COV-2 a national emergency.
On March 15, 2020, the CDC came out with recommendations, including gatherings of no more than 50 people.
On March 16, 2020, after a study out of England indicated millions infected, Trump told people to limit gatherings to no more than 10 people.
A number of states (with a significant numbers of cases) have already shuttered schools, closed bars, etc; while states without cases have been reluctant to follow suit.
The questions to me - are will these non-specific, fragmentary, and contradictory attempts to limit the coronavirus slow the spread; and will we be able to discern it if testing is increased. So I'll eyeball data as it comes out, though I don't expect to see a result for about 14 days.
However, one figure's accuracy will definitely improve with time especially as/(if) the number of new cases levels out, and that's case fatality ratio.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Tell that to the people of China and Italy, and soon to the entire EU and the UK who are dying in droves. Tht's not "no big deal", unless you have your head stuck up your ass and refuse to cogitate reality.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I dunno.
I always said it wasn't a big deal.
Tests are coming out proving me right.
Big nothing burger.
Wowie!
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Here, since you seem to like outube so much
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME