new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
PAGE 78 of 283
Quote:I thought I'd throw this in as well. What could be giving SK its low case fatality rate is a number of factors besides lots and lots of testing (which in and of itself changes the numbers), and early action which kept hospitals from being overwhelmed is - In SK it primarily infected adult female non-smokers, who typically fare much better than other people in other categories.
So I was just looking at some figures to try and see where things are. I took current data from the WorldOMeter and selected only those countries with more than 5,000 cases. I calculated the percent increase in the last 24 hours.
The numbers are:
USA 26
Fran 17
S. K. 01
Germ 29
Spai 18
Iran 8
Ital 13
Chin 00
China and SK have obviously stopped rampant spread.
I also calculated case fatality ratio as percent. The numbers are
USA 1.7
Fran 2.3
S. K. 1.0
Germ 0.3
Spai 4.5
Iran 6.1
Ital 7.9
Chin 4.0
SK, with the widest available testing and first-world health system is I think the optimum result to expect. And with numbers somewhat stabilized, instead of rapidly changing timelines chasing each other, this seems a reasonably good figure. Germany with a 0.3 is I think a result of a rapidly expanding number of new cases. Infected people haven't had a chance to die yet and catch up to the number of new cases. But we'll see how the numbers develop over time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavi
rus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Glad that you're recording the numbers, KIKI. It helps to put things in perspective ... where have we been? Where are we now? Where will we be a month from now?
It's SO frustrating thet testing is STILL not widely available! How can you take appropriate action if you don't know where you are? Whoever was responsible for the testing clusterfuck ... and there are probably several people responsible ... should lose their jobs.
Quote:
More National Guard Troops Deployed In Geogia Than People Who've Tested Positive For Covid-19
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/more-national-guard-troops-deployed-g
eogia-people-whove-tested-positive-covid-19
Panic? Or prudence?
How can you tell without DATA???
Now, my guess is "panic" bc Georgia isn't exactly a hotspot for foreign travellers, but without the DATA, who can tell?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Darn. I should have kept track of how MANY times people have promised more testing kits - for sure this time! - and have the promise fizzle.
Well, here's one for the end of this week. For sure.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8088669/Vulnerable-Americans-
need-avoid-crowds-U-S-health-official-warns.html
Tuesday, Mar 17th 2020
Top coronavirus expert Dr Fauci says four million tests should be available by end of week
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:What we SHOULD have done is set up a betting pool: when will test kits be available?
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Darn. I should have kept track of how MANY times people have promised more testing kits - for sure this time! - and have the promise fizzle.
Well, here's one for the end of this week. For sure.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8088669/Vulnerable-Americans-
need-avoid-crowds-U-S-health-official-warns.html
Tuesday, Mar 17th 2020
Top coronavirus expert Dr Fauci says four million tests should be available by end of week
I say... by end of next week they will have been distributed to labs.
Well, we missed that oppty but how about we set up a couple more, just to keep things interesting?
When will confirmed USA cases reach 10,000? When will USA cases reach 20,000?
When will the CDC (those fuckers) change their criteria for testing?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I giggled. I laughed. I snorted. I'm still chuckling.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
50M ppl in SK // .25M tested => ~0.5% ppl tested
https://news.yahoo.com/u-needs-today-south-korea-173919494.html
330M ppl in US @ ~0.5% ppl tested => 1.65M tested
But not every test is used for patient testing. The CDC may go back to requiring each swab be tested separately instead of together. That reduces 4M test kits down to 2M. And then every test batch is run with blanks and controls. By experience, roughly 35% of every run is QC. That runs it down to 1.3M ppl. Even with 4M kits, should such a bounty ever come true, we'd fall 350,000 short of the SK example.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
The Infuriating Story of How the Government Stalled Coronavirus Testing
www.gq.com/story/inside-americas-coronavirus-testing-crisis
How one young doctor at a Seattle lab tried to get out in front of the coronavirus crisis by inventing his own test. And why the absurdity of his struggle should make us all afraid.
Alex Greninger was watching it all from the start. An epidemiologist and expert in laboratory medicine, Greninger spent the first few weeks of the year paying close attention to China, where a new SARS-like virus was burning through the city of Wuhan at an alarming rate. He watched as Chinese officials struggled to contain the virus, locking down the giant city of 11 million people, going door-to-door to test its citizens. He watched as the virus evaded their grasp. More than most people, Greninger could guess at what was coming for America. And more than most people, he was in a position to do something about it.
The key to getting an outbreak like the current one under control, say medical professionals, is implementing proper testing protocols. Testing for the virus allows doctors to pinpoint and isolate those who are carrying the virus and prevent them from spreading it. Aggressive testing allowed China, eventually, to get the outbreak in Wuhan under control and bring the number of new infections down dramatically. It’s been central to the strategy that Singapore and South Korea have used, too: test and isolate. And yet, two months since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in the U.S., tests for the novel coronavirus are still exceedingly hard to find.
How did the U.S. fumble its response to the coronavirus so colossally, even with so much lead time? Why, with the number of diagnosed COVID cases in the U.S. climbing toward 4,000, do we still not have nearly enough tests?
A large part of the blame lies with President Trump, who has not wanted widespread testing, apparently out of an obsession with keeping the number of confirmed COVID cases low. It’s why he waffled so long on whether to let the Grand Princess cruise liner, where COVID infections were spreading rapidly, dock in the United States. “I would rather have them stay on [the ship], personally,” Trump said earlier this month. “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.” His administration turned down tests provided by the World Health Organization and instead wasted precious time having the Centers for Disease Control create its own test. While that was underway, the president denounced the spread of the disease as a Democratic hoax, giving the public a dangerously false sense of complacency just as a pandemic was getting underway.
In the meantime, a more prosaic and bureaucratic tangle of frustrations ensnared those on the front lines of the fight—those like Dr. Greninger, whose struggles offer a window into how the rollout of testing has been bungled, and why the situation isn’t likely to improve any time soon.
More at www.gq.com/story/inside-americas-coronavirus-testing-crisis
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Just rough-sketching how the numbers are zooming up in the USA .... JSF, you really should chart that, it's eye-opening ....
I place my marker on the USA hitting 10,000 in four days. March 21. (Actually, my chart says in two days, but even I can't believe it's expanding that fast. I should plug the numbers into an exponential regression-line calculation and see what a more accurate estimate gets me.)
I can't imagine when we reach 20,000 ... a few days after 10,000? March 25?
When will the CDC change the criteria for testing? When hell freezes over. (My calendar doesn't go out that far)
Well, good, bad, or indifferent, I've put my markers down. Let's see how good I was at sketching this out.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I think it would be interesting to have data from TWO types of tests ... serology tests, which look for the presence of circulating antibodies in the blood. Since antibodies persist for months (for MERS, a coronavirus, that's 34 months) it should be possible to test for the number of people who had COVID-19 at one time or another, even asymptomatically. It should reveal the true infection rate, which would help calculate the true Rnaught and well as the true case fatality rate.
The other test- for the virus itself- should reveal who is actively infected.
Is that about right, KIKI?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
The coronavirus curve versus the social trust curve
Lethality rates reflect variables that are hard to measure and model: our willingness to trust in and to sacrifice for each other.
To see why, run some numbers. Adam Kucharski, an expert on the mathematics of contagion, calculates that if each Covid-19 case leads to 2.5 more infections over five days, then a single case leads to 244 more cases over the course of a month. But if social distancing measures hold that to 1.25 new infections for every case, that’s only four new cases over the course of a month — which also means the cases that do emerge will be less lethal because health systems won’t be as overwhelmed.
Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.
But if social behavior cuts the replication rate to 1.25 and — due to higher health system capacity and more effective quarantining of the elderly — the case fatality rate to 0.5 percent, then after 30 days there will only be a bit more than 533,000 cases and 2,665 deaths. That loss of life would remain tragic, but more than 72,000 lives would be saved.
Here’s the catch: These measures are far more effective if implemented, well, now. “One of the particularly tough things about this infection is you get this delay of about a month between exposure and death,” Kucharski told me. “By the time people are taking it seriously, even if you stop transmission completely, you still likely have another three or four weeks of hospitals filling up.” In other words, you need to stop the disease before the health system is visibly overwhelmed, not after.
But implementing radical and rapid social distancing before the crisis is undeniable requires two resources in short supply: social trust and social solidarity.
More at www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/3/17/21180645/covid-19-coronaviru
s-social-solidarity-epidemic-pandemic-paid-leave-health-care
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME