new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
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Quote:Yes.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think it would be interesting to have data from TWO types of tests ... serology tests, which look for the presence of circulating antibodies in the blood. Since antibodies persist for months (for MERS, a coronavirus, that's 34 months) it should be possible to test for the number of people who had COVID-19 at one time or another, even asymptomatically. It should reveal the true infection rate, which would help calculate the true Rnaught and well as the true case fatality rate.
The other test- for the virus itself- should reveal who is actively infected.
Is that about right, KIKI?
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
At the time this started, the CDC said they were also working on a serology test - a test for antibodies in the blood. Since then, there's been no word on how that's working out.
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see latest post for most recent figures
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As of March 18, 2020 +1955 from previous day
7678
As of March 17, 2020 +1471 from previous day
5723
As of March 16, 2020 +1169 from previous day
4252
As of March 15, 2020 +584 from previous day
3083
As of March 14, 2020 +667 from previous day
2499
As of March 13, 2020 +420 from previous day
1832
As of March 12, 2020 +397 from previous day
1412
As of March 11, 2020 +228 from previous day
1015
As of March 10, 2020 +221 from previous day
787
As of March 09, 2020 +102 from previous day
566
As of March 08, 2020 +91 from previous day
464
As of March 07, 2020 beginning posting
373
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see latest post for most recent figures
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Just rough-sketching how the numbers are zooming up in the USA .... JSF, you really should chart that, it's eye-opening ....
I place my marker on the USA hitting 10,000 in four days. March 21. (Actually, my chart says in two days, but even I can't believe it's expanding that fast. I should plug the numbers into an exponential regression-line calculation and see what a more accurate estimate gets me.)
I can't imagine when we reach 20,000 ... a few days after 10,000? March 25?
When will the CDC change the criteria for testing? When hell freezes over. (My calendar doesn't go out that far)
Well, good, bad, or indifferent, I've put my markers down. Let's see how good I was at sketching this out.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
I'll say 10,000 in 2, due to not enuf kits. Otherwise it'd be 10,000 in 1.
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Information for Signy
Coronavirus has 8 million Californians under shelter-in-place orders
By Rong-Gong Lin II, Colleen Shalby, Howard Blume, Hannah Fry
March 18, 2020
10:24 AM
With coronavirus cases spreading rapidly and reaching all 50 states, more than 8 million Californians are living under shelter-in-place orders as Gov. Gavin Newsom said he doubted schools would reopen for the remainder of the academic year.
The extraordinary measures were designed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. California has seen the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continue to rise: 472 confirmed cases and 13 deaths as of Tuesday, compared to 157 confirmed cases and three deaths the week prior. The jump in numbers is largely due to a recent increase in testing capacity.
Officials said they are racing to get more coronavirus testing done so they have a better sense of how many people have the virus — but that effort remains painfully slow.
In the meantime, they are pushing people to stay home to avoid spreading the coronavirus and avoid hospitals being overwhelmed.
Extraordinary measures
At least 10 counties in the Bay Area and Central California and the city of Palm Springs have directed all residents to stay at home as much as possible, with Sonoma, San Benito and Monterey counties deciding Tuesday to join the order implemented a day earlier by San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin and Santa Cruz counties. In Ventura County, health officials Tuesday announced a shelter-in-place order that applied only to older residents.
In total, about 20% of the state’s population is under shelter-in-place orders.
Southern California authorities stopped short of shelter-in-place orders, but still imposed sweeping restrictions. Orange and San Bernardino counties issued new orders Tuesday that ban all gatherings, a day after Riverside County banned gatherings of 10 or more people and L.A. County prohibited gatherings of 50 or more people. San Diego County issued a ban Tuesday prohibiting gatherings of 50 or more people.
Besides the 10 counties imposing a shelter-in-place order, enforceable as a misdemeanor, Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Ventura and San Diego counties ordered restaurants to end dine-in eating and required them to offer only pickup and delivery service.
Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Ventura and San Diego counties ordered bars that do not serve food to close; Ventura, San Bernardino and Los Angeles counties also ordered gyms and movie theaters to close.
Church officials throughout the suspend mass. Following decisions from the Los Angeles Archdiocese and San Jose Diocese, the Diocese of San Bernardino announced Tuesday night that it would do the same, suspending services at all parishes, missions, chapels and hospitals.
Schools
Newsom confirmed Tuesday that California public schools are likely to be closed for the remainder of the school year in response to the coronavirus.
“Don’t anticipate schools are going to open up in a week. Please don’t anticipate in a few weeks,” Newsom said during a Sacramento news conference on the state’s coronavirus efforts. “I would plan, and assume, that it’s unlikely that many of these schools — few, if any — will open before the summer break.”
Nearly all school districts in the state, 98.8%, are closed in response to the pandemic, Newsom said. The state education department is assembling detailed guidelines on how schools can attempt to continue teaching 6.1 million students out of their classrooms in the weeks and months ahead.
California schools are all but shut down — a hardship for children and families in a state where 60% of students qualify for free or reduced-price meals because they are members of low-income households. In Los A
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Officially the US-Canadian border is closed to all but essential traffic. Flow of trade goods to keep moving.
More cases of Covid-19 in BC but that is because of over 17,000 tests having been done.
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Hubby just called up a former colleague to see how things were going. Colleague told him about a professor who had cough who was still holding classes and meetings even tho their maid had tested positive. Now colleague himself feels sick and is self-isolating at home.
There is a very interesting interview by Rachel Madcow (of all people) of an American health reporter who was stuck in China during the crisis, and they had an interesting procedure worked out. They hand noticed that most (80%) transmission occurred within the family, so when someone had symptoms they were whisked away to a special clinic ... not a regular hospital or doctor's office ... for testing and isolation, if necessary. Not allowed to go back home. Anyway, let the interviewee tell you about it.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
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Oh yeah!
We're a mere ~550 cases away from the 10,000 challenge! Neither of us was right!
You said "10,000 in four days. March 21". On the 18th I said in 2 days - or March 20. But it looks like it'll be March 19.
OK - new challenge!
I predict 20,000 in 3 days from now - March 21 - but really short days! Like /just after midnight on March 21/ days.
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