Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
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The Clock Is Ticking As Ukraine Destroys More Russian Vehicles, Faster.
The Kremlin Could Run Out Of Fighting Vehicles In Six Months.
By David Axe | Feb 4, 2024, 05:08pm EST
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/04/the-clock-is-ticking-
as-ukraine-destroys-more-russian-vehicles-faster-the-kremlin-could-run-out-of-fighting-vehicles-in-six-months/?sh=17adf709c5e2
On each of 705 days since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, Russian forces on average have lost—destroyed, abandoned or captured—19 tanks, fighting vehicles, howitzers or other heavy weapons.
On Saturday, they lost at least 54. Another 16 were damaged. Saturday was, in other words, one of the worst days of the war for Moscow.
Open-source analyst Andrew Perpetua, who tallies vehicles losses and publishes a daily list, noted the tragic record on Sunday, after adding up Saturday’s losses. “It’s the most I've ever found in a day,” he wrote.
Ukrainian losses were light: nine vehicles destroyed, abandoned or captured and other 21 damaged.
Worse for the Russians, their losses included 16 tanks and a staggering 29 fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, while Ukraine’s losses mostly were trucks and civilian vehicles the military apparently was using for supply runs. The Ukrainians lost two tanks and a single APC.
To be clear: the wrecked vehicles Perpetua counted on Sunday weren’t necessarily lost on Saturday. But since he counts losses every day, the date he tabulates a loss is a useful stand-in for the actual date of the write-off. Just subtract 24 hours.
The obvious question is whether this loss-rate is sustainable for the Kremlin. The obvious answer is: no. As production of new armored vehicles continues to lag, the Russians still mostly ride in older Cold War-vintage vehicles they’ve pulled out of long-term storage.
These reserves are finite. One analyst who goes by @HighMarsed scours satellite imagery in order to track Russia’s stocks of old vehicles. In December, they concluded the Kremlin had reactivated 1,081 of its pre-war inventory of 4,811 old BMP fighting vehicles.
But of the remaining 3,730, at least 765 were “visibly broken beyond repair.”
In 2022 and 2023, according to the analysts at Oryx, the Russians lost around 80 BMPs a month. If that rate of loss had continued into 2024, while production of new BMPs also remained steady at between 30 and 40 a month, the Kremlin would’ve run out of fighting vehicles in two years or so. Say, early 2026.
The problem, of course, is that so far this year the Russians are losing more and more vehicles, faster than ever. They lost 13 BMPs—plus addition BTR fighting vehicles—in a single day, according to Perpetua’s Sunday tally.
That implies a monthly loss-rate for BMPs approaching 400. Five times the rate we observed in 2022 and 2023. At the current rate, Russia doesn’t have a two-year reserve of fighting vehicles.
No, it has maybe a six-month reserve. The uptick in losses—to levels that are far beyond sustainable for Russian forces—also is evident among tanks and APCs.
Despite pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. Congress cutting off aid to Ukraine last fall, despite the best efforts of authoritarian Hungary to block European aid to Ukraine, despite Russia’s bigger population and bigger economy compared to Ukraine’s, despite everything, Ukrainian troops aren’t just holding. Launching drones and firing from trenches, they’re winning the war of attrition.
The even better news for friends of free Ukraine is how much ground the Ukrainians are losing as they wreck Russian assault groups: very little. In the most violent sector of the front—around Avdiivka—on one of their costliest days of the war, the Russians advanced a hundred yards in the south and three-quarters of a miles in the north.
No rational and moral commander would trade 54 armored vehicles and, according to the Ukrainian general staff, more than 800 troops ... for a few hundred yards.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediaf
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In air combat during World War II, five percent of pilots—the luckiest and most skilled aces—accounted for 40 percent of aerial kills, according to author and historian Mike Spick.
In ground combat in Russia’s 23-month wider war on Ukraine, this truism holds. The luckiest and most skilled fighters do a disproportionate share of the killing.
As in World War II, the aces in the Ukraine war do the most killing—and may also have a higher rate of survival thanks to the same instincts and finely-honed skills that make them such fearsome killers.
If there’s anything that can defeat the Aces, it’s the American Republican Party, which for months has refused to vote on additional aid to Ukraine. Aid that would include more Javelin missiles.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/05/one-ukrainian-paratro
oper-and-his-partner-working-alone-near-vuhledar-have-knocked-out-40-russian-vehicles-he-got-a-taste-for-blood/?sh=78d4294828eb
It's called marksmanship. Most soldiers are very poor marksmen. Their fear makes them unsuccessful killers. It is mostly dumb luck when the poor marksman gets a kill and the main reason why Armies fire tens of thousands of rounds for every kill. It is also the reason why artillery is so extremely important because, despite ridiculously poor aiming, the exploding shell can still kill if it lands in the general vicinity of an enemy soldier.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Avdiivka Is About to Fall [Population 32,436 (2020), 31,392 (2022 estimate)]
Updated Feb 06, 2024 at 10:34 AM EST
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-avdiivka-fall-donetsk-1866925
Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov, writing on Sunday that Avdiivka "increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May."
He added that the acute ammunition shortage has been caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine.
Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, said that the Russian capture of Avdiivka could strengthen the position of Western skeptics advocating for a reduction in military and financial support for Ukraine.
"The seizure of Avdiivka holds significant political importance for Putin, driven by the urgent need to showcase victories for Russia ahead of the presidential election and a potential new wave of mass mobilization of soldiers."
Battle of Avdiivka (2022–present)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Avdiivka_(2022%E2%80%93present)
The fighting started on 21 February 2022
Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a Kyiv-based think tank, assessed in late 2023 that the Russian capture of Avdiivka would not have a strategic impact on the overall war, but "would make the situation more tenable for occupied Donetsk as a major Russian logistics hub." The capture of Avdiivka would serve as a morale boost for Russian forces and deal a psychological blow to the Ukrainians, Bielieskov added.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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The US Army plans to significantly increase US domestic production of 155mm artillery shells and shell components for Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, should the proposed Congressional supplemental appropriations bill pass.
US Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology Doug Bush stated on February 5 that the US Army aims to double the US monthly production of 155mm artillery shells from 28,000 shells per month in October 2023 to about 60,000 shells per month in October 2024 - if the Congressional bill passes.[11]
The US Army hopes to further increase production to 75,000 shells per month in April 2025 and 100,000 shells per month in October 2025. Bush stated that the construction of a new factory in Texas, which will “have an entirely new way” of using technology to make artillery shells, will contribute to the Army’s increased production goals. Bush noted that US shell production in part depends on US domestic production of explosive materials. Bush stated that the proposed supplemental bill includes $600 million for increasing the production of explosives at the Holsten Army Ammunition Plant in Tennessee from five million pounds of explosives a year to 13 million pounds.[12]
The proposed bill would also include $93 million to reestablish the production of M6 propellant (used to fire artillery shells but no longer in production in the US) at the Radford Army Ammunition Plant in Virginia, and $650 million would go to constructing a facility (likely also at the Radford Army Ammunition Plant) to domestically produce TNT, which the US currently does not produce. Bush stated that the proposed bill also includes $14 million to construct and recommission a black powder explosive production line in Louisiana. Such investments in US manufacturing are necessary to help support US strategic readiness by rebuilding America’s atrophied defense industrial base, separate and apart from the need to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-february-6-2024-0
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Ukrainian Minefields Are Complicating The New Russian Offensive
By Vikram Mittal | Feb 6, 2024, 10:47am EST
https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2024/02/06/ukrainian-minefie
lds-are-complicating-the-new-russian-offensive/?sh=6f753f6026fc
For over a century, armies have used mines to limit the maneuverability of their adversaries on the battlefield. Recently, the Ukrainian counter-offensive was halted by an extensive network of Russian minefields. As the conflict shifts into a new phase with Ukraine on the defensive against a renewed Russian offensive, the Russian forces must now face similar challenges as they deal with Ukrainian minefields.
The Ukrainian minefields currently appear to be much less extensive than the Russian minefields, which were 20 km deep at locations. Since the Ukrainian minefields are less formidable, Russian forces are attempting to clear paths through them. However, once the Russian forces enter the minefield, they are canalized to these cleared paths. As they proceed down these paths, they can be quickly detected by Ukrainian surveillance drones and targeted by an artillery strike.
Last week, the Russians reportedly experienced minefields near Novomykhailivka in the western Donestk Oblast, where a column of armored vehicles was destroyed by Ukrainian artillery as it attempted to pass through the minefield. Russian military bloggers have reported that Ukrainian minefields are causing similar issues along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis.
The use of minefields, though effective, does have its controversy. Unlike Russia, Ukraine signed the Ottawa Treaty, which limits the use of anti-personnel mines; however, the Ottawa Treaty does not limit the use of larger anti-tank mines, of which the Ukrainians have an ample stockpile. Indeed, Ukraine had a large pre-existing supply of anti-tank mines that it inherited from the Soviet Union, including the TM-62, TM-83, and PTM-1. The Ukrainians have also received mines from several NATO countries including the German DM-22, DM-31, and DM-1399, the French HPD-2A2, the Danish M/56, and the American RAAMS. While some of these mines are hand-emplaced, others can be put in place by mine-laying machines, yet others can be scattered from helicopters or artillery. Additionally, they differ in their detonation mechanisms, with some activated by the vehicle's pressure and others triggered by detecting the magnetic signature of an armored vehicle.
Similar to the tactic used by the Russians, the Ukrainians are combining their dated mine systems with modern drone technology. Indeed, the use of drones allows the Ukrainians to provide constant overwatch of the minefield. The Ukrainians have a vast armada of surveillance drones including systems provided by other countries, including the American Puma and the Polish FlyEye, and those that are domestically produced, including the A1-SM Fury and the ASU-1 Valkyrja. Many of these drones feature advanced optics that can see through smoke screens and other obscurants that are commonly used to hide military movements. Further, many of these systems include advanced autonomy features and long loitering times.
Given that some of the mine systems can be remotely delivered from artillery shells and helicopters, the Ukrainians have been able to emplace minefields forward of their lines. Moreover, the use of drones allows the Ukrainians to maintain overwatch of these minefields even if they are forward of their lines. If the Russians are able to push through these initial minefields and approach the Ukrainian lines, they will likely find much thicker minefields, similar to what the Russians used against the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The slow progress of the Russian assault is providing the Ukrainians with enough time to build out their defensive minefields.
The Russians will likely try to mitigate these minefields through enhancing their counter-drone technology, limiting the ability of the Ukrainians to overwatch the position. While Russian counter-drone technology, especially using electronic warfare equipm
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Ukraine says Russia's Black Sea Fleet suffered debilitating losses since collapse of grain deal
Ukraine has made major gains in taking back control of the western Black Sea with a months-long campaign
By Peter Aitken | February 7, 2024 9:18am EST
https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-says-russias-black-sea-fleet-suf
fered-debilitating-losses-collapse-grain-deal
The grain deal, brokered in July 2022, helped ensure that the "breadbasket of Europe," responsible for 30% of the global grain supply, would continue to ship vital grains despite a Russian blockade. Russia started attacking grain silos after ending the deal in 2023.
Instead of folding, Ukraine hit back and struck major blows against the Russian fleet, which had initially scored Russia’s strongest victories in the early stages of the invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proudly claimed at the end of the year that the fleet "is no longer capable of operating in the western part of the Black Sea and is gradually retreating from Crimea."
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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I discussed tanks and other armored vehicles already.
Tanks were a formidable weapon in WWII. Since then, many anti-tank weapons have been developed: anti tank mines, ATGMS, RPGS, drones (all with shaped charges), artillery, even helicopter gunships. I probably missed a few.
Tanks were outfitted with reactive armor, active defenses, and anti-drone EW. Even so, they don't seem to be useful to lead offensives against prepared defenses. We saw that near Rabotyno when Ukies tried to charge across a minefield, destroying so many Bradleys the field became known as "Bradley Square", and also southwest of Adiivka, when Russians tried to cross a minefield.
Really, armored vehicles only work when MOST anti-tank defenses have been neutralized and only scattered infantry is left. Or when a defense belt has collapsed and the area behind is hollow of defenses.
*****
Your focus on sharpshooting must come from first person shooter games, because a whole army of sharpshooters (or drone operators) can't stop an army that is well- supplied with a variety of both heavy and light weapons. Each weapon has its purpose. Some are used to destroy fortifications or ammo or fuel depots. Others - like TOS "flamethrowers"- can wipe out a football field of soldiers, even dug in in trenches or tunnels. Others can pick off individual soldiers or vehicles. Still others are used for deep underground command centers etc.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Feb 6, 2024 - Damage to Ukraine caused by the ongoing war with Russia has an estimated cost of between $411 billion and $1 trillion.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/02/even-as-the-war-persists-ukrain
e-is-rebuilding-heres-how/
Signym, if Russia conquers Ukraine, then Russians and Ukrainians will pay this cost. If Russia fails to conquer, Russia can avoid the cost of rebuilding Ukraine, except for what the EU can extract. Financial institutions in the United States and Europe hold about $300 billion worth of Russian state assets that were frozen at the start of the war and which, if seized, could go a long way toward paying for the damage wrought by the invasion.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/30/biden-russia-ukraine-assests-bank
s-senate/
Signym, Russia has two choices:
1) it is in Russia's best interest to kill Putin now and withdraw from Ukraine, but
2) it is in Putin's best interest to continue fighting in Ukraine until he dies.
The two choices are the same: Either choice ends with Putin's death, with the only difference being how long he lives and how large a bill he leaves for Russia to pay the longer he lives.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Fuck Ukraine.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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Quote:If Ukraine committed to not being in NATO, if NATO committed to not creating a "security agreement" with Ukraine, if Ukraine were to be a neutral nation likee Austria, the war would end tomorrow.
Originally posted by second:
Feb 6, 2024 - Damage to Ukraine caused by the ongoing war with Russia has an estimated cost of between $411 billion and $1 trillion.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/02/even-as-the-war-persists-ukrain
e-is-rebuilding-heres-how/
Signym, if Russia conquers Ukraine, then Russians and Ukrainians will pay this cost. If Russia fails to conquer, Russia can avoid the cost of rebuilding Ukraine, except for what the EU can extract. Financial institutions in the United States and Europe hold about $300 billion worth of Russian state assets that were frozen at the start of the war and which, if seized, could go a long way toward paying for the damage wrought by the invasion.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/30/biden-russia-ukraine-assests-bank
s-senate/
Signym, Russia has two choices:
1) it is in Russia's best interest to kill Putin now and withdraw from Ukraine, but
2) it is in Putin's best interest to continue fighting in Ukraine until he dies.
The two choices are the same: Either choice ends with Putin's death, with the only difference being how long he lives and how large a bill he leaves for Russia to pay the longer he lives.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
But NATO (i.e. the USA) can't agree to let Russia alone.
I was reminded what set this all off.
Regime change in Ukraine.
Attempted ethnic cleansing of Russian-spraking people.
Civil war.
The west ignoring not one, but TWO, peace agreements, and bragging about it afterwards.
Shelling civilians in Donbas.
Including in Ukraine's constitution the goal of joining NATO (2014)
Massing Ukrainian troops on the border.
Stuffing Ukraine with weapons.
Increased shelling of Donbas civilians, which the west blamed as "false flags"(!)
But I think the thing that pushed this over the edge was Zelensky prancing around the Munich Security Conference in 2022 and bragging he was going to get nukes. Not in his official speech, but when he was hobnobbing with attendees. And none of the EU attendees told him to STFU. That was in February 2022, just two or three days before Russia launched its SMO.
Russia wasn't intending a full-on war. Despite a botched airborne operation, Russia managed scare Kiev into negotiating. Negotiators had reached an cease fire agreement leaving Donbas part of Ukraine and giving Ukraine security guarantees from wester narions AND Russia.
Russia would have been happy to sign, but Boris Johnson twisted Zeneskys arm to continue the war with a promise (We'll give you everything you need for as long as it takes) but worse, a THREAT:
If you sign this agreement there will be no security guarantees from the west.
The west NEVER intended to reach a negotiated settlement. EVER. They (we) just wanted to use Ukraine to bludgeon Russia and topple Putin. Even if it meant fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.
Has nothing to do with defending democracy or territorial integrity. We were provoking a fight with Russia intneding to destroy them.
stop rewriting history.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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