The Blue Beetle Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, October 20, 2023 10:03
VIEWED: 4841
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WB had better relish the Barbie profits, because DC is going to continue losing them money.
The-Numbers.com home page always has a list of "Most Anticipated Movies" on a sidebar on the right side of the screen. The movies on the list now?
Disney’s Snow White
The Nun II
Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part Two
The Fall Guy
The Creator
Retribution
Dune: Part Two
Five Nights at Freddy’s
The Hill
The Equalizer 3
https://www.the-numbers.com/
Wait? Blue Beetle isn't on that list? When is Blue Beetle coming out again?
That's right. Tomorrow night.
And nobody gives a single shit about it.
Disney's Snow White remake tops the list of "Most Anticipated Movies" for all the wrong reasons. That's a ticking time bomb for Disney, and I suspect they're just going to end up releasing it on Disney+ and hope it goes away like they did with Peter Pan and Wendy. Hell... I suspect that some at Disney are contemplating never letting Snow White see the light of day like WB did with Batwoman.
But people are talking about it. Along with sure to be classics like "The Nun II". But nobody is searching for or talking about DC's Blue Beetle a day before it gets released.
With a $120 Million Production Budget, it needs $240 Million to break even with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb and $300 Million with the much more likely to be accurate 2.5x Rule of Thumb in 2023.
What have other DC movies with characters that your average moviegoer has at least heard of before done in the Box Office in the last 2 years?
Black Adam:
Budget: $200 Million
Worldwide Gross: $391,261,706
Money Lost (2.0x RoT): $8,738,294
Money Lost (2.5x RoT): $108,738,294
Shazam: Fury of the Gods:
Budget: $125 Million
Worldwide Gross: $132,192,362
Money Lost (2.0x RoT): $117,807,638
Money Lost (2.5x RoT): $180,307,638
The Flash:
Budget: $200 Million
Worldwide Gross: $268,163,138
Money Lost (2.0x RoT): $131,836,862
Money Lost (2.5x RoT): $231,836,862
Then you have Batwoman which was shelved and if it doesn't get leaked will never be seen by human eyes. That cost $90 Million.
On the last three DC movies put out and the shelved Batwoman movie, WB has lost anywhere from $348,382,794 to $570,882,794.
If you take Barbie's $1.2 Billion that it's raked in so far, subtract the $400 Million it needed to break even and further subtract a conservative $100 Million additional for theater takes, that leaves WB with roughly $700 Million in profit. That looks decidedly smaller when it needs to make up for not only the last three DC flops it put out, but the shelved Batwoman movie and the future Blue Beetle massive flop.
Without Blue Beetle added, after Barbie covers the losses from all of these films, it only leaves WB with anywhere from $350 Million to as low as $130 Million profit.
And with the 2.5x RoT looking more and more like it's the new model, after Blue Beetle's losses are realized, WB is going to be lucky if the huge Barbie win comes out as a wash after covering the losses of its last 5 DC movies.
And now they're BEGGING you to see this movie, after the dipshit director and idiot George Lopez attacked fans on Twitter earlier this year.
My, my... The times they are a changing. 
I may have to put a Warner Bros 2023 Failure Thread up alongside the Disney one. At first I thought it was kind of hard to justify with WB putting out what will likely be the biggest grossing movie of 2023, but I'm going to have to dig up all of WB's movies and see how close it's come to Disney in terms of hemorrhaging money.
It won't beat Disney in the race to the bottom in 2023 for sure, but WB might not do much better than breaking even this year. Not a good look when you put out the top grossing film that's going to make around $1.3 Billion in the box office.
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I thought 'Barbie' was going to do just 'OK', soooo
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Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
I thought 'Barbie' was going to do just 'OK', soooo
Did you miss the point of the thread?
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Blue Beetle only opens in 3,871, behind Barbie's 4,003 theaters. Uh oh.
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Blue Beetle prediction? difficult to know
the movie studios are in caution mode again with strikes
I will kind of ignore oversea for the moment because international box office is more difficult to predict, however rule out France as not going to the cinema and a Russian market dead with sanctions, Japanese movies are usually late in the cinema and its a smaller box office.
Let's look at its contest, its sort of in a competition against Barbie and Oppenheimer that are still making money from July's box office, then you have Meg 2, because Warner Bros owns both Barbie and Blue Beetle it might be in a contest against itself, you also have kids movies and animations, Strays, The Monkey King, then soon coming Gran Turismo, The Creator, The Equalizer 3, A Haunting in Venice, Retribution, Expend4bles etc
Does the name itself sell? maybe Nobody really knows 'Blue Beetle' unlike Batman, Ironman, Harry Potter, Superman, Luke Skywalker, Mickey Mouse, Spider-Man
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
The-Numbers.com home page always has a list of "Most Anticipated Movies" on a sidebar on the right side of the screen.
The Hill an American biographical sports drama might eat away on some of its profit but The Fall Guy is moved to 2024
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Blue Beetle prediction? difficult to know
Nah. Huge failure incoming. Shazam 2 was the sequel to a DC movie that was pretty well received and made money, yet with only a $125 Million budget it lost almost as much as The Flash did and that had a $200 Million budget.
Quote:
the movie studios are in caution mode again with strikes
Not only that, but the actors won't promote any movies either.
Quote:
I will kind of ignore oversea for the moment because international box office is more difficult to predict, however rule out France as not going to the cinema and a Russian market dead with sanctions, Japanese movies are usually late in the cinema and its a smaller box office.
Let's look at its contest, its sort of in a competition against Barbie and Oppenheimer that are still making money from July's box office, then you have Meg 2, because Warner Bros owns both Barbie and Blue Beetle it might be in a contest against itself, you also have kids movies and animations, Strays, The Monkey King, then soon coming Gran Turismo, The Creator, The Equalizer 3, A Haunting in Venice, Retribution, Expend4bles etc
Once Barbie and Oppenheimer fall off, there's not a lot of excitement over the rest of the year in the box office. Blue Beetle included.
Quote:
Does the name itself sell? maybe Nobody really knows 'Blue Beetle' unlike Batman, Ironman, Harry Potter, Superman, Luke Skywalker, Mickey Mouse, Spider-Man
Nobody knows who Blue Beetle is. They had to reach into the bottom of the barrel for a D-List character for this one. It's DC's discount Spider-Man but he's brown with a blue costume.
Quote:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
The-Numbers.com home page always has a list of "Most Anticipated Movies" on a sidebar on the right side of the screen.
The Hill an American biographical sports drama might eat away on some of its profit but The Fall Guy is moved to 2024
That's not the point of mentioning the list. Snow White isn't coming out (if it ever comes out) until 2024. I've never even heard of half of those movies on the list of "Most Anticipated Movies" but I've heard of Blue Beetle.
It's also not on The-Numbers list of Trending Movies either.
Nobody gives a shit about this movie.
Projections range from $22 to $32 Million on opening weekend. That's 18% to 27% of its production budget (which may actually be the same $125 Million that Shazam was instead of just $120 Million... We'll have to see if that's true or not).
There's some saying that Barbie will beat it and it's Barbie's 5th week in theaters.
Shazam II made $30 Million on opening weekend and finished the US Box office run with $57 Million. The Flash made $55 Million on opening weekend and finished the US Box office run with $108 Million.
I don't consider most Latinos to be woke. Unless there is an amazing unexpected turnout from Latinos to all go out and see a superhero movie about a Latino superhero that nobody ever heard of before, this one is going to make within Shazam II and The Flash range.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Projections range from $22 to $32 Million on opening weekend. That's 18% to 27% of its production budget
Here's other movies at the bottom of the 2023 list when it comes to worldwide opening weekend vs. production budget. I'm going to be extremely optimistic about the film and give it a 50/50 split Domestic/International even though nobody outside of America has heard of Blue Beetle before either, so I'll show any movies that grossed up to 54% of their budget first weekend.
27. Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
28. Book Club: The Next Chapter / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 50%
29. No Hard Feelings / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $22,000,000 / 49%
30. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Th / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
31. 80 for Brady / Budget: $28,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 46%
32. Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000
34. Plane / Budget: $25,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 40%
35. The Flash / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $75,000,000 / 38%
36. 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
37. Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
38. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Budget: $30,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 23%
39. Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
40. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $13,000,000 / 19%
41. Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%
42. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant / Budget: $55,000,000 / WWO: $7,000,000 / 13%
43. Renfield / Budget: $86,000,000 / WWO: $10,000,000 / 12%
Now... Which of these movies ended up winners and which ended up losers?
Winner (That's right... Just one):
25. Elemental made 222% of its production budget of $200 Million.
Losers (and how high they ranked on the loser's list so far):
7. Shazam: FotG only made 106% of its production budget of $125 Million. [FINAL]
15. Book Club: TSC made 140% of its production budget of $20 Million. [FINAL]
18. No Hard Feelings made 187% of its production budget of $45 Million.
14. Dungeons & Dragon: HAT only made 139% of its production budget of $150 Million. [FINAL]
16. 80 for Brady made 143% of its production budget of $28 Million. [FINAL]
8. Indiana Jones and the Do Destiny made 123% of its production budget of $300 Million.
19. Plane made 192% of its production budget of $25 Million. [FINAL]
13. The Flash only made 134% of its production budget of $200 Million. [FINAL]
9. 65 only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
6. Are You There God? IM, M made 70% of its production budget of $30 Million. [FINAL]
3. Haunted Mansion made 48% of its production budget of $158 Million.
5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken made 60% of its production budget of $70 Million.
10. Magic Mike's LD only made 124% of its production budget of $45 Million. [FINAL]
2. Guy Ritchie's The Covenant made 36% of its production budget of $55 Million. [FINAL]
1. Renfield made 31% of its production budget of $86 Million. [FINAL]
Elemental ended up pulling off a miracle after having Pixar's 2nd lowest opening weekend in history. Every other movie that made between 12% and 54% of its production budget worldwide on opening weekend failed to even win on the 2.0x Rule of Thumb.
And there is very much evidence that we're now using the 2.5x Rule of Thumb in 2023. Bounding into Comics says that Blue Beetle needs to make 300 Million to break even.
https://boundingintocomics.com/2023/08/17/box-office-analyst-predicts-
its-possible-for-barbie-to-beat-blue-beetle-at-box-office-says-blue-beetle-will-be-another-flop-for-dc/
I'm only claiming it needs to make $240 Million, and I don't see any way that will be possible.
Even if it does manage to eek out a 2.0xRoT win, it still might not have actually made a profit with 2.5xRoT being on the table. In a world where it makes a few bucks,
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Blue Beetle's Thursday night Preview numbers are in.
$3,300,000
Ouch.
The Flash did $9,700,000 on preview night on June 15th.
Bruce's predictions for The Flash on Friday, June 16th:
Quote:
Warner Bros.’ big bet of the Summer arrives in theaters this weekend, and The Flash looks as though it will set the new DC Universe on its way at a reasonable pace with an opening in the region of $70 million.
...
The preview numbers point to an opening weekend that will fall short of $80 million, but Warner Bros. will be pretty happy with $70 million for a film that has had more than its fair share of negative publicity.
The Flash's actual opening weekend: $55,043,679
Reported Worldwide Opening Weekend: $128 Million. (64%) *They claimed $139 Million using the 4-day holiday trick, but it was $128 Milion for the 3 day weekend worldwide.
Shazam: Fury of the Gods did $3,400,000 on preview night on March 16th.
Bruce's predictions for Shazam: Fury of the Gods on Friday, March 17th:
Quote:
Shazam! Fury of the Gods picked up $3.4 million from preview screenings on Thursday. That’s a lot less than the $9.225 million earned by Shazam! back in 2019, and points to an opening weekend for the latest movie in the DC Extended Universe that will fall well short of the $53.5 million earned by its predecessor. In fact, it might not make it to $30 million this weekend.
...
With a small number of exceptions, super hero movies earn less than 10 times their preview earnings over opening weekend, which makes $34 million a rough upper limit for Shazam!. If it performs as well through the weekend as Birds of Prey, it’ll come in with $28.1 million. For a truly heart-stopping comparison, Shazam!’s opening weekend multiplier was 5.8. If Fury of the Gods does that, it’ll open with just $19.72 million.
Overall, something around $30 million seems likely, but there’s a decent chance it’ll miss that mark. If it does fall short of $30 million this weekend, it’ll probably also struggle to make $100 million in total, which would be a very disappointing outcome for a movie in the world’s number two super hero franchise.
Shazam II's actual opening weekend: $30,111,158
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $66 Million. (53%)
Blue Beetle probably won't break $30 Million Domestic. It's difficult to say for sure since it's a largely unknown property and we've had almost a half a year extra Superhero fatigue since Shazam II came out, but I'd say the Upper Limit for Blue Beetle Worldwide this weekend is only in the area of $60 Million.
It's a coin-flip if it beats Barbie. If it does, I suspect Barbie will beat it next weekend.
EDITED TO ADD: While researching what The Flash made here for the exact numbers, I realized I goofed and put The Flash at number 35 on the Worldwide Box Office vs. Production Budget list with only $75 Million (38%). It actually got $128 Million Worldwide, which bumps it up to 26th place with 64% of its production budget made on opening weekend.
This is probably worse news for Blue Beetle, considering how very far short The Flash fell below what it needed to break even despite making 64% of the production budget on opening. Blue Beetle will come nowhere close to 64% of $120M this weekend. That would require it to make almost $77 Million worldwide.
NOTE: Blue Beetle will be showing in 3,871 tonight and this week. Previews were in 3,400 theaters. I've never looked into the amount of theaters compared to actual theaters for the Friday release before, but I'm surprised it's that high of a number considering the amount of movies they'd have to bump out of theaters a day early to make that happen. Maybe it's normal?
So the $3.3M previews it made was in 88% of the theaters that will be showing it tonight, and it still appears to have fallen $550k short of Barbie's projected $3.85 Million for Thursday night, or 86% of Barbie's Thursday night total. It's going to get 12% more theate
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Bruce's Blue Beetle Prediction:
Quote:
Blue Beetle should top the box office chart this weekend, but it’s looking like it’ll mimic the performance of Shazam! Fury of the Gods and come in with something around $30 million on debut—another disappointment for the DC Extended Universe following The Flash’s $55-million opening and $108-million run in June and July.
Blue Beetle didn’t gain much traction with its potential audience over the past few weeks, with our model measuring audience enthusiasm at 80% of what we’d expect. Aside from the mid-pandemic release of Wonder Woman 1984, it’s also the first DC Universe film to open in fewer than 4,000 theaters, which further reduces our model’s baseline prediction.
...
While Blue Beetle will almost certainly top the chart, Barbie won’t have a huge amount of competition and could hold on better than the model currently expects. If it tops $20 million the weekend result could still be close.
Like I said, unless people are just completely done with the DC Universe, I expect Blue Beetle to take first place this weekend without much trouble. I don't think it will beat Barbie by next weekend though.
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They admit the Budget to Flash was something like 300 Million meaning its box office failure was even worse than expected
Are Major film studios failing in the USA, maybe and maybe not some are foreign owned like 'Sony'
the brands like Sony do have flops but mostly avoid USA's new SJW Bolsevik politcial messages
Disney has flops and Marvel has flops, Disney own Marvel
However a new Spider-Man made money
Disney probably had huge theme park loss with Covid
Warner Bros had a hit with 'Barbie' but a lot of flops
MGM is dead mostly, it still has ownership of Bond brand but was bought by Sony
Universal Pictures... NBCUniversal they don't make as many films any more but they own the Despicable Me brand, movie rights for Mario and did make 'Oppenheimer'
Paramount Pictures might have bounced back with Top Gun Maverick and a Box office $1.496 billion
It's hard to know when the current box office run started and died I think it began with super blockbusters back in 1993, 1995, 1996 - then maybe started to die 2014, 2015 the Superhero thing over-saturated everything, Covid damaged sales and the SJW islamic Homosexual Gay Lesbian Political messages put into every big box office movie might have finally crushed it all.
Some movies can make box office money but its going to continue with failures
Small Indie movies are now Most Profitable Movies, more interesting and pull far mroe cash back Based on Return on Investment
A lot of them if smart might return to the Low Budget Comedy, Scifi or Horror Genre, Halloween, Mad Max, Young Frankenstein, El Mariachi, Rain Man, Easy Rider, Open Water, Clerks, overseas or Japanese genre like the Ringu, Eraserhead , Paranormal Activity etc
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