Guess the October Surprise -
POSTED BY: Righteous9
UPDATED: Sunday, November 12, 2006 15:16
VIEWED: 11708
PAGE 9 of 11
Well, with God on our side...
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Oh god .... no wait! I mean Oh! God! 
Hey, here's something I found. I did notice that all of the sudden Iran WASN'T in the news. This could be why:
http://www.atimes.com/
AsiaTimes Online
Cashing in on the fear factor
There's a widespread belief that the Bush administration deliberately manipulated oil prices down ahead of mid-term elections, by suddenly softening its line on Tehran, for example. What drove prices up in the first place was fear - fear about a clash with Iran and the spread of war to other oil producers in the Middle East. Expect such fears to be stoked again after the elections. - Michael T Klare
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
You people are so focused on politics you haven't seen the real clue to the nature of the October Surprise - The New Orleans Saints are 3-0.
This un-natural occurance beggars rational explanation. There must be something sinister behind it.
I figure that the Saints winning streak will be artificially maintained until either their home game against Philadelphia (Oct 15) or Baltimore (Oct. 29). These games will be played in the SuperDome, and will probably be sellouts.
During half-time at one of these games, an out-of-control barge (or maybe on hijacked by terrorists) will ram the levee, threatening to flood the dome and environs.
Fortunately, Dubya will be touring a Corps of Engineers facility nearby, and immediately order that the 100,000 sandbags that just happen to be filled and ready be dumped in the hole. When one of the workers is overcome by exhaustion, Bush will step right in and pitch sandbags. Superdome and New Orleans saved due to the foresight of the Administration.
"Keep the Shiny side up"
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Whatcha been smokin' there?
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
There's a widespread belief that the Bush administration deliberately manipulated oil prices down ahead of mid-term elections, by suddenly softening its line on Tehran, for example. What drove prices up in the first place was fear - fear about a clash with Iran and the spread of war to other oil producers in the Middle East. Expect such fears to be stoked again after the elections. - Michael T Klare
Hey Rue,
While I agree that the strife in the Middle East has a large impact on the price of oil, Do not forget the other variables involved. Oil prices have also gone down because of the less stormy hurricane season which is being forecasted. I believe BP has reopened their supply lines or at least portions of them after the maintenance work which will also drop the price due to increased supply. There are also forecasts of a more temperate winter which again drops the price due to decreased demand. Perhaps during the last spike in oil prices, a large number of SUV owners saw the writing on the wall and decided to do away with their gas guzzlers therefore decreasing demand. Prices normally drop after the end of the summer driving season as well. And there is always the impact on the price of oil based on OPEC increasing or decreasing their output.
So with all of these other factors involved, it seems to me that perhaps the current Administration might not have as much to do with the falling price of oil as you would like to portray.
I will have to go through your last extensive post to me before responding or not. Not to say that I do not appreciate the time and effort which you obviously put into it to...?
Posting to stir stuff up.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
BigDamnNobody, all of that is true, but the math still doesn't add up. Same link as before:
http://www.wltx.com/news/story.aspx?storyid=42313
Quote:
Fifty five percent of what you pay for a gallon of gas is tied directly to the price of crude oil. Refining, distribution (and marketing) and taxes each make up roughly fifteen percent. So for every dollar that a barrel of oil moves, up or down, gasoline prices should move about three cents.
Back in July, both crude oil and gasoline hit their highest recorded prices. Gas was averaging about three dollars a gallon. By mid-September, oil had dropped about fifteen bucks a barrel. So gas should have dropped about forty five cents a gallon. But actually dropped fifty cents a gallon, and more since then.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060927.ROPEC27/TPSt
ory/Business
Quote:
U.S. crude fell 44 cents to close at $61.01 a barrel...
Oil prices have had their steepest decline since the Gulf War in 1991, falling from July's peak of $78.40 a barrel...
So, 78.40 - 61.01 = 17.39. 17.39 X 0.03 = 0.53 (rounded up). Prices at the pump should have dropped around .53 cents.
The national average price of gas peaked at $3.04 per gallon according to the Energy Information Administration. The average price today is 2.36 per gallon. 3.04 - 2.36 = 0.68
That's 0.15 more than prices should have dropped. The numbers just don't add up...
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
There's a widespread belief that the Bush administration deliberately manipulated oil prices down ahead of mid-term elections, by suddenly softening its line on Tehran, for example. What drove prices up in the first place was fear - fear about a clash with Iran and the spread of war to other oil producers in the Middle East. Expect such fears to be stoked again after the elections. - Michael T Klare
Hey Rue,
While I agree that the strife in the Middle East has a large impact on the price of oil, Do not forget the other variables involved. Oil prices have also gone down because of the less stormy hurricane season which is being forecasted. I believe BP has reopened their supply lines or at least portions of them after the maintenance work which will also drop the price due to increased supply. There are also forecasts of a more temperate winter which again drops the price due to decreased demand. Perhaps during the last spike in oil prices, a large number of SUV owners saw the writing on the wall and decided to do away with their gas guzzlers therefore decreasing demand. Prices normally drop after the end of the summer driving season as well. And there is always the impact on the price of oil based on OPEC increasing or decreasing their output.
So with all of these other factors involved, it seems to me that perhaps the current Administration might not have as much to do with the falling price of oil as you would like to portray.
I will have to go through your last extensive post to me before responding or not. Not to say that I do not appreciate the time and effort which you obviously put into it to...?
Posting to stir stuff up.
I thought it was already common knowledge that the Saudi's do not want Dems to win fearing higher taxes on energy, as a result have picked up production. I am pretty sure I heard this on NPR a couple weeks back. The price will rise again after the election, prompting screams of I told you so, because the north will begin to turn on their heaters. Hugo must be pissed.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by kaneman:
I thought it was already common knowledge that the Saudi's do not want Dems to win fearing higher taxes on energy, as a result have picked up production. I am pretty sure I heard this on NPR a couple weeks back. The price will rise again after the election, prompting screams of I told you so, because the north will begin to turn on their heaters. Hugo must be pissed.
We don't get to tax the Saudis, Kaneman. It's not part of the US.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
This is even sadder - the major oil refineires buy their crude on long-term contract. The only major purchaser that buys crude on the spot market is China. But when the oil supplies are even assumed to have a potential to be affected by some possible change - it's that insane - the spot market zooms, and so of course does the price of gas, and heating oil, and even natural gas. How about that! Refiners charge the high cost of the spot market but pay on low-cost contract!
To give an even more telling example - Valero is THE refinery in the US specializing in refining sour heavy crude. Everyone else - BP/Arco, Chevron, Exxon/Mobil and the rest can only work with sweet light crude. It is sweet light crude that is quoted in the market and that is so expensive. Sour heavy crude doesn't cost much. Do you think Valero sells its gas adjusted to the cost of production ?
HA HA HA HA HA HA Ha ha ha ha ..... if you do.
COST doesn't drive how refiners and natural gas producers price their products.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
PLEASE look up basic information before you em-bare-ass yourself further!
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp
Shows the price of crude has dropped less than the price of gasoline.
http://oilceo.blogspot.com/2006/04/gasoline-days-of-inventory.html
Shows gasoline inventories and pump prices are not related.
"Saudi's ... have picked up production."
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100120/content.asp?menu=co
mmodities&dia=2692006
"The paper also points out that Saudi Arabia has been cutting output since the end of last year. That fact shows that the Saudi's will most likely not have a problem cutting back on output if called upon to do so. And if the Saudis cut then the rest of the cartel will most likely fall in line with what is asked of them which in some countries might not be much."
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME