Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
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Quote:Patriot missiles have proven incapable of stopping Russian (and Iranian) missiles and are too expensive to shoot down drones. (They ARE useful against planes.)
Originally posted by second:
'Make them yourself': Trump gives Zelensky green light to produce Patriot missiles
by Chris Powers | July 8, 2026 4:28 pm
https://kyivindependent.com/make-them-yourself-trump-gives-zelensky-gr
een-light-to-produce-patriot-missiles/
Editor's note: This is a developing story and is being updated.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on July 8 that he will grant Ukraine its longstanding request to produce American Patriot missiles, the West's only tool capable of stopping Russian ballistic missile attacks.
While Trump later expressed confidence that Ukraine could produce the missiles quickly, he also said he had not coordinated with the manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, ahead of the announcement.
IDK why everyone wants them so badly, they're like a security blanket or something.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Zaluzhnyi: Assuming Russia has lost the war is a 'dangerous misreading'
by Jimmy Rushton | July 8, 2026 7:34 pm
https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-assuming-russia-has-lost-the-war
-is-a-dangerous-misreading/
"Do not assume Russia has lost the war," Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom and former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi warned in an opinion piece published in The Telegraph on July 8.
Zaluzhnyi pointed to a trend of Western analysts who assumed that "Russia has effectively lost the war," citing Ukraine's increasingly successful deep-strike campaign against the Russian oil industry and its ongoing "middle-strike" campaign to target Russian logistics.
"That is a dangerous misreading of the war," Zaluzhnyi said, arguing that analysts who focus on Ukraine's individual tactical and operational victories — battlefield gains and strikes inside Russia — instead of the broader strategic picture arrive at optimistic assessments of the state of the conflict.
Zaluzhnyi returned to a view he has advanced since 2023, describing the current conflict as a positional war of attrition shaped by drones, surveillance, and precision-strike capabilities.
"This is no longer a war of swift manuevers. It is a war of attrition," Zaluzhnyi said. "Every tactical gain now comes at an extraordinary cost. Positions can be taken, but holding them, reinforcing them and evacuating the wounded has become increasingly difficult under constant drone surveillance. Success on the battlefield is measured in meters rather than miles, and often at a price that bears little relation to its strategic value."
Zaluzhnyi's words will be viewed by many as an implicit critique of his successor as commander-in-chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi. Syrskyi has come under repeated criticism for launching what many consider to be poorly planned and ill-conceived offensive operations, often led by the Assault Forces, a specialized branch of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that answers directly to Syrskyi and has a reputation for taking high casualties during its operations.
Zaluzhnyi argues that the war's attritional logic goes beyond individual battles and operations, with neither Ukraine's nor Russia's deep-strike campaign able to deliver a knockout blow.
"Ukraine's increasingly effective strikes against Russian logistics and critical infrastructure have imposed real costs on Moscow. But these attacks are expensive, technologically demanding, and ultimately reciprocal. Russia retains the ability to strike back with equal or greater force. Neither side can rely on this form of warfare to produce a decisive strategic outcome," Zaluzhnyi writes. He also argues, however, that Ukraine's campaigns of deep-strike and middle-strike operations could strengthen the country's position in any future negotiations.
Zaluzhnyi also believes that neither side is ultimately able to claim victory, with Russia unable to achieve its original war aims but able to continue a grinding war of attrition and Ukraine able to maintain its independence but unable to forcibly remove Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.
"Wars of attrition do not produce clear winners in the conventional sense. They are decided by endurance," Zaluzhnyi writes. He adds a note of caution that Ukraine's endurance depends "heavily upon continued backing from its allies," which he believes shows signs of fraying.
"Political changes in Washington and persistent divisions within Europe raise legitimate questions about whether today's level of support can be maintained indefinitely," Zaluzhnyi writes.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/08/ukraine-ambassador-d
o-not-assume-russia-has-lost-war/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:I asked google AI. It responded: This statement is false. While Patriot missile systems are currently facing major challenges in Ukraine due to extreme supply shortages and upgraded Russian evasion tactics, the system has repeatedly proven highly capable of intercepting Russian and Iranian missiles.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Patriot missiles have proven incapable of stopping Russian (and Iranian) missiles . . .
The reality on the ground is more nuanced:
• Proven Success: The Patriot system remains one of the premier air defense shields. It has a well-documented track record of shooting down advanced Russian weapons, including the Kinzhal (a hypersonic ballistic missile), and successfully intercepting waves of Iranian missiles.
• The Problem of Shortages: The primary reason Russian ballistic missiles are currently bypassing defenses is a severe global shortage of Patriot PAC-3 interceptors. Prolonged conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East have rapidly depleted stockpiles, forcing Ukrainian defenders to conserve ammunition and leaving major areas completely undefended.
• Tactical Adaptation: The effectiveness of the system has fluctuated because Russian forces have heavily modified their Iskander-M missiles. Upgraded software allows these missiles to perform mid-air evasive maneuvers and deploy decoys specifically designed to confuse radar and bypass interceptors.
Would you like to know more about the ongoing production efforts to build more interceptors, or how the Patriot's capabilities compare to other Western air defense systems?
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:I asked google AI.
Originally posted by second:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Patriot missiles have proven incapable of stopping Russian (and Iranian) missiles . . .
Well, shit, SECOND, that was your first mistake!
I know that Kiev CLAIMS to have shot down hypersonic missiles, but up until three days ago they ALWAYS claim great success shooting down pretty much everything! (Big holes in targets say otherwise!)
And Raytheon OF COURSE claims 90% interception.
But here's the thing:
Video analysis of waves of Iranian missile strikes on Israel show Patriot PAC3 repeatedly missing missile after missile, with an estimated interception rate of about 3%. The analysis was done by Ted Postol (MIT, Stanford, Argonne). Of course, I don't take anyone's word and I don't appeal to authority. But I DID watch a video of Iranian missiles raining down on Israel and the notable lack of interceptions despite interceptor launches.
One more thing: The PAC-2 version has an explosive warhead that sends out a cloud of shrapnel. (The PAC-3 doesn't) A video that you may have seen of Patriots "intercepting“ incoming over Doha AREN'T. Those are PAC-2 warheads exploding. A real interception is much brighter and hangs in the sky a lot longer as burning MISSILE particles expand outward.
Just saying.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Quote:It just so happens that Ted Postol is full of shit:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Video analysis of waves of Iranian missile strikes on Israel show Patriot PAC3 repeatedly missing missile after missile, with an estimated interception rate of about 3%. The analysis was done by Ted Postol (MIT, Stanford, Argonne).
Dr. Postol has published video analyses of various conflicts, including conflicts in the Middle East. He has argued that video evidence shows interceptor missiles frequently failing to hit incoming ballistic missiles, resulting in very low interception rates.
The Counter-Argument: Postol's methodologies, specifically his use of ground-level television and social media footage to gauge interception success, have been widely criticized by military analysts, industry experts, and government agencies. Critics, such as defense analyst Fabian Hoffmann, point out that ground videos lack spatial depth, image quality, and complete spatial awareness required to judge whether an interceptor destroyed a warhead in mid-air.
No, the claim that Patriot PAC-3 systems have a 3% interception rate against Iranian missiles is factually unsupported and heavily contradicted by military assessments.
• Overall Success Rates: Analyses from independent agencies and military assessments consistently place the interception rate of the broader, multi-layered air defense network—which includes Patriot, Arrow 3, and David's Sling—at roughly 86% to 90%.
• Viral Video Context: The video analysis in question likely refers to highly specific, isolated engagements where dense Iranian ballistic barrages temporarily saturated local defenses, forcing multiple interceptors to be launched sequentially at single, maneuvering targets.
• System Limitations: The MIM-104 Patriot systems deployed by the U.S. and regional allies are designed for rapid, "body-to-body“ kinetic intercept. While there have been documented instances where a Patriot battery fired multiple missiles to shoot down a single incoming threat—resulting in temporary misses or footage of spent missiles impacting the ground—these do not represent the overall success average.
If you are interested in this topic, I can:
• Provide details on the cost and production delays of PAC-3 interceptors
• Explain how the multi-layered air defense system actually operates
• Share statistics on interceptor usage across different countries in the Middle East
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:It just so happens that Ted Postol is full of shit:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Video analysis of waves of Iranian missile strikes on Israel show Patriot PAC3 repeatedly missing missile after missile, with an estimated interception rate of about 3%. The analysis was done by Ted Postol (MIT, Stanford, Argonne).
Dr. Postol has published video analyses of various conflicts, including conflicts in the Middle East. He has argued that video evidence shows interceptor missiles frequently failing to hit incoming ballistic missiles, resulting in very low interception rates.550
The Counter-Argument: Postol's methodologies, specifically his use of ground-level television and social media footage to gauge interception success, have been widely criticized by military analysts, industry experts, and government agencies. [/wuote}
Of course!
Do you think Raytheon and the Pentagon would agree thst their system is full
of shit?
I looked at the videos myself. I saw a crapton of missile warheads/ submunitions falling and only one interception.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Quote:Do you really think that anti-missile missiles such as the Patriot miss 97% of missiles, but the military of many countries still buys them? That there is a conspiracy to purchase billions of dollars' worth of almost worthless weapons just for the bribes being paid by the manufacturers to the procurement officials. Signym, you literally are fucking crazy. I am not kidding.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Of course!
Do you think Raytheon and the Pentagon would agree thst their system is full
of shit?
I looked at the videos myself. I saw a crapton of missile warheads/ submunitions falling and only one interception.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:I asked google AI.
Originally posted by second:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Patriot missiles have proven incapable of stopping Russian (and Iranian) missiles . . .
Well, shit, SECOND, that was your first mistake!
I know that Kiev CLAIMS to have shot down hypersonic missiles, but up until three days ago they ALWAYS claim great success shooting down pretty much everything! (Big holes in targets say otherwise!)
And Raytheon OF COURSE claims 90% interception.
But here's the thing:
Video analysis of waves of Iranian missile strikes on Israel show Patriot PAC3 repeatedly missing missile after missile, with an estimated interception rate of about 3%. The analysis was done by Ted Postol (MIT, Stanford, Argonne). Of course, I don't take anyone's word and I don't appeal to authority. But I DID watch a video of Iranian missiles raining down on Israel and the notable lack of interceptions despite interceptor launches.
One more thing: The PAC-2 version has an explosive warhead that sends out a cloud of shrapnel. (The PAC-3 doesn't) A video that you may have seen of Patriots "intercepting“ incoming over Doha AREN'T. Those are PAC-2 warheads exploding. A real interception is much brighter and hangs in the sky a lot longer as burning MISSILE particles expand outward.
Just saying.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
Zelensky couldn't hit the ground if you gave him a bow and arrow.
Fucking loser.
It would be like if John Stewart were President here. No... Not Jon Stewart. Who's the gay and completely batshit insane Jon Stewart that loves on kids? I know we have at least one of them in Hollywood. John Oliver? Does he count as ours, or is he the UK's problem?
Meh... Either way. It would be like John Oliver running one of our countries straight into the ground.
Back when I was making as much every year as Joe Biden*'s criminal crackhead son was getting paid by Ukrainan energy firm Burisma every month to doooooooooooooooo.... something? Back in the good old days before Obama completely ruined the trajectory of our country forever, this is what President Track Suit was up to. Inflicting this degenerate shit on his future countrymen on a so-called "comedy" show.
I don't give a shit how big-man-gruff you make your voice sound when you talk today, Batman. Do you honestly think that there isn't a single second when you're sitting in the room with leaders from nations much greater than your own that they're not secretly laughing at you and picturing this clip in their heads every time you open your stupid fucking face hole while everybody is still pretending for some reason that you deserve a seat at the Adult Table?
You're a joke, Zed.
And not a particularly funny one.
--------------------------------------------------
Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:Do you really think that anti-missile missiles such as the Patriot miss 97% of missiles, but the military of many countries still buys them? That there is a conspiracy to purchase billions of dollars' worth of almost worthless weapons just for the bribes being paid by the manufacturers to the procurement officials. Signym, you literally are fucking crazy. I am not kidding.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Of course!
Do you think Raytheon and the Pentagon would agree thst their system is full
of shit?
I looked at the videos myself. I saw a crapton of missile warheads/ submunitions falling and only one interception.
They're buying F-35s, aren't they?
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Quote:The Ukrainians are NOT buying F-35s. They are buying Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets from Sweden. The Ukrainians are also buying Patriot missiles because the Ukrainians have more experience with the Patriot than any country, including the US. Also, Ukraine wants to build Patriot missiles because the US is too slow in building them:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:Do you really think that anti-missile missiles such as the Patriot miss 97% of missiles, but the military of many countries still buys them? That there is a conspiracy to purchase billions of dollars' worth of almost worthless weapons just for the bribes being paid by the manufacturers to the procurement officials. Signym, you literally are fucking crazy. I am not kidding.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Of course!
Do you think Raytheon and the Pentagon would agree thst their system is full
of shit?
I looked at the videos myself. I saw a crapton of missile warheads/ submunitions falling and only one interception.
They're buying F-35s, aren't they?
Soon or years away? When Ukraine could produce its first domestic Patriot missiles
How long does it take to manufacture Patriot missiles in Ukraine?
By Daryna Vialko | Wed, July 08, 2026 - 20:00
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/comment/soon-or-years-away-when-ukraine-cou
ld-produce-1783529153.html
US President Donald Trump has announced that Ukraine will be granted the right to produce Patriot air defense systems.
RBC-Ukraine spoke with experts about the prospects for localizing the production of critical air defense components in Ukraine.
Aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap told RBC-Ukraine that the announcement most likely refers to the production of Patriot missiles rather than the launchers themselves, as Ukraine already has launchers and Poland manufactures them.
According to him, even under an optimistic scenario, it would take at least one year to establish a production site, build the necessary facilities, conceal infrastructure, and begin installing equipment.
"In the best-case scenario, that takes a year. Then it takes another two years to produce the first missile. The production cycle for PAC-3 missiles lasts between 23 and 25 months. So, realistically, the earliest we could see the results is 2029," Kryvolap said.
He added that Ukraine is expected to receive the contracted PAC-3 missiles from the United States in 2027.
Aviation expert and defense industry development director Anatolii Khrapchynskyi told RBC-Ukraine that it remains unclear exactly what kind of production license Ukraine may receive and whether any manufacturing support will be provided.
"The Patriot missile production process involves many countries. There is a plant in Japan, final assembly takes place in Germany, while PAC-3 missiles are produced by Lockheed Martin in Arkansas. Various guidance components and other critical parts are manufactured by different companies. No single factory produces the entire system," he explained.
Khrapchynskyi also stressed that final assembly requires completely different production lines. In his view, the discussion is not about launchers or radar systems, but most likely only about the missiles.
"The positive sign is that Ukraine will most likely be allowed to manufacture part of the system. However, it has not yet been disclosed which stage of production would be localized or whether it would include final assembly," he added.
Where Patriot missiles are produced today
The production of Patriot missiles is a large-scale international industrial effort in which no single company manufactures the entire system.
The latest PAC-3 missiles are produced by the US company Lockheed Martin in Arkansas, while final assembly of the PAC-2 (GEM-T) variant takes place in Germany. Japan also operates licensed production lines.
At the same time, critical components such as precision guidance systems and onboard electronics ar
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