Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
PAGE 97 of 111
December 19, 2025
When addressing responsibility for the invasion, Putin again falsely claimed that Russia did not start the war and that he bears no responsibility for the deaths it has caused.
"We do not consider ourselves responsible for the deaths of people because we did not start this war," he said, falsely accusing Ukraine of lacking readiness for peace.
The claim contradicts overwhelming evidence that Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, killing tens of thousands of civilians and displacing millions.
https://kyivindependent.com/putin-opens-annual-presser-with-maximalist
-demands/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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#Rootin4Putin
#FuckUkraine
--------------------------------------------------
Be Nice. Don't be a dick. 
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Europe kicks the €210 billion question down the road
EU leaders told the Commission to keep trying. The deadline: end of 2027.
By Peeter Helme | Dec 19, 2025
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/19/eu-delays-210bn-frozen-assets-e
nd-2027/
The European Union’s €90 billion ($105 billion) loan for Ukraine isn’t an ending. It’s a countdown. EU leaders approved the emergency funding early Friday after disagreeing on tapping €210 billion ($246 billion) in frozen Russian assets, according to European Council conclusions.
But they also gave the Commission a mandate to keep working on the reparations loan mechanism—and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made clear where this is heading.
“Financing Ukraine beyond 2027 will be part of the next long-term EU budget discussion,” she wrote on X.
“We reserve our right to use the cash balances from Russian assets immobilised in the EU to finance the loan.”
Translation: the €90 billion buys time. The fight for the frozen assets continues.
The 2027 problem
The €90 billion covers roughly two-thirds of Ukraine’s estimated needs through 2027. After that, Europe faces the same question it just ducked: borrow more, or finally touch Russia’s money?
One EU diplomat told Reuters the compromise amounted to “saving face” rather than solving the problem.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Ukraine cannot continue to survive on Europe’s starvation rations
Editorial: Despite agreeing to a €90bn interest-free loan that could keep Kyiv afloat for two years, European leaders seem unduly nervous about forcing Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. If Europe is ever to defeat Russia, it must now go further – or risk humiliation
Friday 19 December 2025 14:43 EST
https://www.the-independent.com/voices/editorials/ukraine-russia-eu-lo
an-putin-war-b2887890.html
Unlike some of his more aloof predecessors, the latest autocrat running Russia doesn’t mind subjecting himself to lengthy media questioning, if only once a year, as a kind of pre-Christmas treat for himself.
Vladimir Putin enjoys delivering rambling lectures as much as his American counterpart, though the Russian president’s aren’t quite so angry and possess more of a scholarly veneer, fake as it is. His latest marathon press conference does, however, serve to confirm that this is a leader who is determined to achieve his maximalist strategy in Ukraine by whatever means suit him best at any given point.
These include multi-spoked diplomacy to divide the EU (Hungary being the weapon of choice), peeling America out of Nato, military activity on the battleground, espionage and disinformation abroad, and, of course, bombing and freezing Ukrainian civilians to death. He can also tap up powerful allies in China, India and Iran for financial support, dual-purpose technology, weaponry and even manpower to support his crude “meatgrinder” method of war.
At this moment, President Putin is content to maintain an involved but uncompromising stance in the peace talks, while simultaneously pressing on with his slow advances on the ground, and the indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian infrastructure, be it power plants or kindergartens. If his friends in the US administration – including Donald Trump himself – manage to pressure Volodymyr Zelensky into surrendering territory that Russia hasn’t been able to capture in the fighting, and to disarm Ukraine, then so much the better. Russia can then regroup while America relaxes its economic sanctions, and prepare for the next invasion.
If not, and the war drags on, then Putin won’t mind either the human cost – more than one million Russian casualties so far – or the stress to the Russian economy. His goal of occupying Ukraine, extinguishing its national identity, and integrating it into his empire makes any sacrifice made by his people worthwhile. It would cement his regime in permanent power – and, in his review, consolidate Russia’s superpower status – and would command the respect of his enemies at home and abroad. He likes to be feared – another thing he shares with Mr Trump.
Unlike Mr Trump, though, Russia’s leader is normally calm in demeanour, and, as it suits him to at the moment, gives the impression that he is relaxed about the glacially slow progress of his “special military operation”. He also seems rather pleased about the disarray in Europe in recent days. He derides European leaders as “piglets”, and as “burglars” attempting to steal the $200bn (£150bn) of Russian financial assets that have been frozen in the European clearing system since his unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Sadly for Europe, the EU leaders are far from a ruthless, well-organised gang of jewel thieves. Instead, they resemble a squabbling band of amateurs, with some members under suspicion of wanting to help the Kremlin rather than frustrate it, and openly obstructing the attempt to make Russia pay for its aggression.
In the end, the Europeans stumped up an interest-free loan of €90bn (£79bn) for Ukraine. This, it is claimed, will keep the Kyiv government running for a year or two. The unspoken assumption is that, by 2027, when the war will be in its sixth year, the Russians will be so exhausted, and their economy and war machine struggling to such an extent, that Moscow will be forced to sue for peace. At that point, a fairer settlement can be achieved – and with it, the return of most of
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“You do nothing and you can still be shot”: Ukrainian woman describes torture in Russian detention
By Kathrine Frich | Dec 20, 2025
https://www.dagens.com/war/you-do-nothing-and-you-can-still-be-shot-uk
rainian-woman-describes-torture-in-russian-detention
Life under occupation reshapes daily routines in ways that are hard to imagine from afar.
For civilians trapped behind shifting front lines, survival often depends on silence, luck and endurance.
One Ukrainian woman’s testimony offers a rare account of what that reality looked like from the inside.
Early disappearances
According to The Insider, Olena Yagupova lived in Kamianka-Dniprovska, in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, when Russian forces took control of the area in the first days of the full-scale invasion.
She said order was imposed quickly through patrols, checkpoints and house-to-house searches.
“People started disappearing from the very beginning,” Yagupova told The Insider, describing how residents were detained without explanation.
She said workers from the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant were among those targeted.
“They had lists of the plant’s employees,” she said, adding that some people were pressured into cooperation while others were tortured or sent to dig fortifications. Communication with the outside world, she said, was almost impossible.
Arrest without charges
Yagupova said she was detained on October 6, 2022.
Her husband served in the Ukrainian army, and she had worked in regional public administration, factors she believes made her a target.
“They had no warrant and no charges,” she said.
An FSB officer and members of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic searched her home, she said, taking property before moving her to a local police station.
“They suffocated me with bags, tortured me with electricity, simulated execution, raped me,” Yagupova said.
She described two days of abuse aimed at forcing false confessions, followed by months in detention without formal accusations.
Life in detention
She told The Insider she spent four months in pre-trial detention, often sleeping on the floor in overcrowded cells during winter. “In pretrial detention, your goal is to live one day,” she said.
Food was scarce, water limited and medical care nonexistent, she said.
Guards forced detainees to sing the Russian anthem for hours while beatings took place.
Many inmates, she added, were civilians detained for minor or unclear reasons.
A guard once gave her a book, she recalled. “Read it, it will be useful to you,” he said. The book was about the Nuremberg Trials.
Forced labor
In January 2023, Yagupova said she was transferred from detention to a labor camp. Before the transfer, she said, officials filmed a video claiming she had been released.
“They forced us to dig trenches and demine the fields,” she said. Such videos, she added, were meant to mislead families and avoid responsibility.
In October 2025, the International Criminal Court in The Hague accepted Yagupova’s testimony, according to The Insider, adding her account to a growing body of evidence about alleged abuses in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Sources: The Insider, International Criminal Court, Digi24.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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#Rootin4Putin
#FuckUkraine
Seriously dude. Fuck yet another Democratic money laundering scheme that was your Ukraine bullshit.
We're done with that too.
The fleecing of Americans by Democrats comes to an end here.
You lose. Forever.
Checkmate.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
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A Russian cargo plane broke in half—because Russian industry is broken, too
A Russian air force An-22 that disintegrated near Moscow is indicative of deeper Russian dysfunction.
By David Axe | 19/12/2025
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/19/an-22-crash/
• The crash of a Russian air force airlifter speaks to a wider problem
• Russian warplanes are wearing out faster than Russia can replace them
• The Russian air force is doomed to shrink as more planes get grounded ... or crash
The Russian air force Antonov An-22 heavylift transport plane that broke in half and crashed near Ivanovo air base 250 km west of Moscow on 14 December may have been the last An-22 in Russian service.
The horrific crash, captured on video from the ground, underscores a growing problem for the Russian air force as Russia's wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its fifth year: Russian warplanes are wearing out faster than Russian factories can replace them.
The Russian air arm is still much bigger than the Ukrainian air force and boasts capabilities the Ukrainian air arm lacks, such as heavy bombers and stealth fighters. But the Russian air force, or VKS, will almost certainly shrink, a lot—and not just because its aircraft are getting shot down by Ukrainian missiles and blown up on the ground by Ukrainian drones.
No, the Russian air force will shrink because many of its roughly 1,700 fixed-wing aircraft—fighters, attack jets, bombers, and transports—will simply wear out from overuse in the wider war.
"It wouldn't shock me if by the time the war in Ukraine ends, between combat losses, wear/tear and aging of its already old aircraft fleet, [the] VKS might end up being down ~40% from its pre-war fleet of combat aircraft," Czech analyst Jakub Janovsky predicted.
The four-engine, turboprop An-22 that crashed near Moscow, killing seven people, was around 50 years old, but continued in service a year past its anticipated retirement, likely owing to the demands of the Russian war effort. Russian transport aircraft shuttle troops and supplies around Russia and also deliver cruise missiles to Russian bomber bases shortly before those bombers strike Ukrainian cities.
The Fighterbomber Telegram channel claimed it was the last An-22 in air force use. The giant turboprop could haul 80,000 kg of cargo and land on rough airstrips.
An airlifter can safely fly for 50 years or even longer if it's properly maintained, overhauled, and upgraded. But it's evident from the An-22's mid-air disintegration that it wasn't properly maintained, overhauled, and upgraded.
The problem may be endemic across the Russian air force fleet. Maintenance isn't keeping up with use as Russian planes relentlessly bombard Ukraine.
It's a problem Defense News identified as early as March 2024. "The Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, continues to burn through the life span of its fighter aircraft in the war against Ukraine," the trade publication reported.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/2000268262672896151/
Combat losses aren't the real problem
The Russians have lost around 170 aircraft in combat in Ukraine since February 2022. That's 10% of the pre-war fleet.
Russian factories have produced enough new aircraft to replace virtually all of the combat losses.
But they haven't produced enough new aircraft to make up for older planes that become unflyable owing to metal fatigue.
Consider the Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-35, respectively—the Russian air force's best attack plane and best fighter. The VKS went to war in February 2022 with around 130 Su-34s and 100 Su-35s. In 45 months of hard fighting, the air arm has lost 35 Su-34s and eight Su-35s.
Over the same span of time, Sukhoi has delivered around 39 Su-34s and 26 Su-35s, more than making good combat losses. But that doesn't mean the air force's inventory isn't shrinking.
"A subset of its fleets has built up significant fatigue hours," the Royal United Services Institute in London
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
A Russian cargo plane broke in half—because Russian industry is broken, too
Oh. I'm sure it is.
Get fucked, loser.
You're a fucking idiot.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Ukraine cannot continue to survive on Europe’s starvation rations
Then maybe they should stop wasting money on gold toilets.
------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to seize all of Ukraine and ultimately restore control over parts of Europe that once belonged to the Soviet empire, according to six sources familiar with US intelligence assessments.
These conclusions contradict the Kremlin’s public claims that Russia poses no threat to Europe and directly refute Putin’s own denials.
Despite these assessments, the Donald Trump administration continues to claim that Russia is interested in peace, even as US intelligence agencies maintain the opposite view.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/20/us-intelligence-say-putin-wants
-ukraine-baltics-poland-and-more-trumps-team-says-russia-wants-peace/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Who Wins Wars — and Why (Introduction)
As Samuel Charap, one of the leading analysts of the Russian military for the Rand Corporation – arguably the US government’s most important strategic studies think tank – described the situation, Russia was so strong that the west should not even bother to arm Ukraine:
Russia has the ability to carry out a large-scale joint offensive operation involving tens of thousands of personnel, thousands of armored vehicles, and hundreds of combat aircraft. It would likely begin with devastating air and missile strikes from land, air, and naval forces, striking deep into Ukraine to attack headquarters, airfields, and logistics points. Ukrainian forces would begin the conflict nearly surrounded from the very start, with Russian forces arrayed along the eastern border, naval and amphibious forces threatening from the Black Sea in the south, and the potential (increasingly real) for additional Russian forces to deploy into Belarus and threaten from the north, where the border is less than 65 miles from Kyiv itself.
‘U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine: A Silver Bullet?’, Rand Corporation, 21 January 2022,
https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/01/us-military-aid-to-ukraine-a-silver-
bullet.html
As Charap and his co-author argued, US weapons could ‘do nothing’ to change the basic flaws in the Ukrainian military, nor did they represent a threat large enough to deter Russia. As such, it would be best to leave Ukraine to accept its doomed fate and throw itself on the mercy of Putin’s Russia. This was no one-off. It was a vision of Russian power and Ukrainian weakness that had been used for years to argue against providing Ukraine with modern weaponry – on the assumption that Ukrainian conventional resistance against the great power of Russia and its military was doomed.
In speaking this way, Charap and others were parroting (without properly interrogating) the great power paradigm that has been in wide-scale operation since the nineteenth century. Even more unfortunately, Charap and other analysts who believed Russia would conquer Ukraine easily argued publicly for strict limitations on weapons to be sent to Ukraine. It was part and parcel of why Ukraine was so short of advanced weapons when the Russians invaded, and has arguably resulted in the limitation of what Ukraine has been sent since. This has led to the unnecessary deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainians (and Russians), and shaped a war that could have been over far more quickly. It should have been the nail in the coffin of a concept that never made much sense to begin with. Sadly, the idea of great powers, probably because of its deceptive ease, has lived on. But we need to drop the whole phrase entirely – before it gets even more people needlessly killed in wars that cannot be won by non-existent ‘great’ powers.
From the introduction to War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why
By Phillips Payson O'Brien [2025]
https://z-lib.fm/s/?q=Phillips+Payson+O%27Brien+War+Power
https://z-lib.fm/book/120019548/4ff78e/war-and-power-who-wins-warsand-
why.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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From Chapter 10, States vs Alliances, in War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why
By Phillips Payson O'Brien [2025]
The experience of the war in the Middle East also revealed that the US had forgotten its failure in South Vietnam and the extreme difficulty of trying to create an ally who would fight for it. The United States’ intervention in Afghanistan started in 2001, just days after 9/11. Over the next two decades, the US is estimated to have spent an eyewatering $2.3 trillion on the intervention.25 This is larger than the GDP of all but a handful of nations. At the same time, the human cost was large. The US lost 2,324 military personnel and 3,917 contractors, and 1,144 allied troops died as well. Afghani deaths were exponentially higher; considering those who died on all sides and civilians killed, the number would probably reach into the hundreds of thousands.26 All this expense was in vain. Different US governments from both parties, including the Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, tried many different strategies to try to establish a workable Afghanistan government that could outlast the US occupation. In other words, the United States tried to create an ally where none existed. The results made the American intervention in Vietnam and the earlier Soviet intervention in Afghanistan look like relative successes. The US-installed regime, with its large army well-equipped with US weapons, outlasted the occupation by a few hours. Without US military force, America’s putative Afghan ally was doomed. It was one of the most disastrous attempts to create an ally in human history.
And it had a further disaster in that it led to the US failing to understand that Ukraine offered the exact opposite case – a possible ally who wanted US friendship and support and would be willing to do the fighting. In Ukraine, the US was presented with a chance to help a people who wanted to build a democratic system and were more than willing to risk their own lives and futures to do so. At the same time, the Ukrainians were fighting the greatest threat to US security in Europe – Vladimir Putin’s Russia. However, the US seemed to have totally lost any ability to properly judge its own interest and the strength of its possible allies, and instead prepared to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia before the Russian Army had even crossed the border.
The assumption that the Biden administration had made (and those around Donald Trump had as well) was that Ukraine would be quickly conquered. Indeed, the administration thought so little of the Ukrainians’ willingness to fight for themselves that they engaged in a bout of self-pity. On the eve of the Russian invasion, the president bemoaned his own fate, saying: ‘Jesus Christ! Now I’ve got to deal with Russia swallowing Ukraine?’27
Sadly for the US and the democratic world, the Biden administration was never able to adjust its understanding of the value of Ukraine as an ally. It continued to view Russia as some great power that should not be defeated and Ukraine as a small power that needed modest support, but who could never be a true ally. Biden kept Ukraine from being given a clear path to NATO membership and also strictly limited the military aid given to the Ukrainian military. Crucially, Ukraine was given US aid to fight only a limited-range war, and was forbidden to attack Russian military targets in Russia (even those which were being used almost daily to attack civilian targets in Ukraine). The result was that the Biden administration transformed what could have been a Ukrainian victory into a long-term, bloody and grotesque attritional struggle that resembled World War I (with drones) more than anything else.
It was a catastrophic view that stretched the gamut of failure from all aspects of war and power. Biden had, like US presidents before him, such as Trump and Obama, failed to understand that Ukraine was not some insignificant state whose people would give up in the face of Russian power. The Ukrainians had a strong sense of identity and the economic/technologi
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High-ranking Russian general killed in Moscow car bombing
By Kateryna Hodunova | December 22, 2025 10:54 am
https://kyivindependent.com/high-ranking-russian-general-killed-after-
car-bombing-in-moscow-russia-cites-possible-ukrainian-involvement/
Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff's operational training department, was killed in a car bombing in Moscow on Dec. 22, Russia's Investigative Committee said.
An explosive device attached to the underside of the lieutenant general's car detonated in the morning on Yaseneva Street in Moscow. Sarvarov was taken to the hospital but later died from his injuries.
Russia's Investigative Committee said it had opened a criminal case into the killing and that investigators and forensic experts were working at the scene. Security forces were also examining the site, interviewing witnesses, and reviewing CCTV footage.
Investigators are considering multiple lines of inquiry, including a possible link to Ukrainian special services, the committee said.
The Kyiv Independent cannot independently verify the Russian Investigative Committee's claims.
Sarvarov was appointed head of the Russian Armed Forces' operational training department in 2016. Sarvarov previously served in Syria from 2015 to 2016.
Ukraine has not been officially linked to the car bombing and is yet to comment, though Kyiv has previously targeted Russian officials involved in Moscow's full-scale invasion.
Igor Kirillov, the head of the Russian Armed Forces' radiation, chemical, and biological defense troops, was killed in an explosion at a residence in Moscow in December 2024, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine told the Kyiv Independent.
Mikhail Shatsky, a Russian expert involved in modernizing missiles launched against Ukraine, was shot dead near Moscow on Dec. 12, 2024, a Defense Forces source told the Kyiv Independent.
Aleksey Kolomeitsev, a Russian colonel who trained specialists in the use of attack drones, was killed in the city of Kolomna in Moscow Oblast, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on Sept. 28, 2024.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:‘We are f–king fascists’ — Pussy Riot memoir looks at everything wrong with Russia
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
#Rootin4Putin
#FuckUkraine
By Kate Tsurkan | December 21, 2025 7:27 pm
https://kyivindependent.com/we-are-f-king-fascists-pussy-riot-memoir-l
ooks-at-everything-wrong-with-russia/
Upon being released from prison in December 2013 after serving time for “hooliganism motivated by religious hatred,” Russian political activist Maria Alyokhina observes that she and her fellow Pussy Riot punk group members “arrived in a different country.”
Outwardly, Russia sought to convey to the world during this period that it was a serious global power through events such as the Sochi Winter Olympics. The reality, as Alyokhina writes, was completely different: just a few months later, Russia would launch its war against Ukraine, annexing the Crimean Peninsula and sparking a fight in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
As Russian soldiers began to commit violence abroad, Russian society itself descended into something darker: “The authorities give the green light to create violence within our own country. The number of Nazi groups increases. Gopniks with St. George’s Ribbons, calling themselves patriots, attack and beat up anyone who disagrees with the new ‘patriotism’.”
Alyokhina’s new book, “Political Girl: Life and Fate in Russia,” covers the period from her first release from prison to her escape from Russia in the spring of 2022, a span that coincides with some of the darkest moments in the country’s recent history. These years are punctuated by events such as the assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine, and the poisoning of Alexei Navalny — episodes that function less as narrative climaxes than as recurring markers of a system sliding deeper into repression.
The book lingers unevenly on these moments, but the inconsistency appears deliberate rather than careless. The effect, when the episodes are read in close succession, is cumulative rather than dramatic. What emerges is not only a record of political violence in contemporary Russia, but an account of how quickly the extraordinary becomes habitual — how catastrophe, repeated often enough, loses its capacity to shock.
Against the often fractured and polemical discourse that characterizes much writing by Russian exiles, Alyokhina’s book stands out for its clarity of judgment. She does not avoid the question of Russian society’s collective guilt for the war, unlike those who claim “if everyone is guilty then nobody is guilty.”
Instead, Alyokhina insists on holding together two uncomfortable truths: that she did what she could to change the country, repeatedly and at increasing personal cost, and that Russian society at large remains complicit in the horrors that followed. The book’s moral weight lies precisely in this refusal to convert individual resistance into collective exoneration.
“I’m afraid to say the most important thing out loud — a verdict," she writes about the Bucha Massacre. "(It’s a verdict) on all of us. I’m not sure Russia has the right to exist after this."
The horror of Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine is intensified by how quickly much of Russian society appears to embrace the conflict, Alyokhina writes, with many insisting that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “doing the right thing.” The Kremlin’s survival is bound up with the machinery of war: it is not only a tool of foreign aggression but a domestic imperative, used to consolidate loyalty and suppress dissent as Alyokhina observes with unflinching bluntness: “Numbness. We are f–king fascists.”
A substantial portion of “Political Girl” is devoted to documenting Russia’s crimes against Ukraine, while also noting related injustices like the persecution of the Crimean Tatars or the Kremlin-backed repression in Belarus. Alyokhina details the meticulous planning behind Pussy Riot’s high-profile actions, both in Russia and abroad, aimed at securing the release o
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to seize all of Ukraine and ultimately restore control over parts of Europe that once belonged to the Soviet empire, according to six sources familiar with US intelligence assessments.
First of all ... anonymous "sources familiar with"? Not one of our intelligence agencies directly?
Who?
Since originally "reported" in Reuters (a British publication) was it British sppoks making up shit again, like the Steele "dossier"?
Secondly, Tulsi Gabbard herself publicly said no such report exists, and she laid it at the feet of those working against a negotiated settlement.
We can always count on you, SECOND, to bring us the latest propaganda so we know what the deep state wants us to think.
Thank you for your service.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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EU sanctions Jacques Baud, a SWISS Retired Colonel who was a Swiss Intelligence officer and analyst.
Quote:
Jacques Baud, a retired Swiss colonel with a background in intelligence services and peacekeeping work, has been sanctioned by the EU for being a "mouthpiece for pro-Russian propaganda".
Baud, who resides in Belgium, has now had all his assets frozen and faces a travel ban within the union. He himself rejects the accusations and maintains that he never uses Russian material in his books.
Jacques Baud is a former member of the Swiss Strategic Intelligence Service and a specialist on Eastern European countries. He has served as head of the UN Doctrine for Peacekeeping Operations and participated in negotiations with senior Russian military and intelligence officers directly after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Within NATO, he participated in various programs in Ukraine, particularly during the Maidan Revolution in 2014.
https://nordictimes.com/europe/swiss-ex-colonel-sanctioned-by-eu-for-p
ro-russian-propaganda/
I have listened to Col Baud, and he is one of the clearest, most level-headed analysts of the war.
Eurocrats can no longer tolerate objective, reasoned analysis. The EU is an unelected bureaucracy that slipped into authoritarianism and now requires total allegiance to its warmaking objective.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Quote:There is no confirmed information in the provided sources that Jacques Baud is directly paid by the Russian government. He does, however, regularly appear on pro-Russian media programs and has been sanctioned by the European Union for spreading Russian propaganda.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I have listened to Col Baud, and he is one of the clearest, most level-headed analysts of the war.
Eurocrats can no longer tolerate objective, reasoned analysis. The EU is an unelected bureaucracy that slipped into authoritarianism and now requires total allegiance to its warmaking objective.
Key Details
• Sanctions: The EU has added Baud to its sanctions list for "information manipulation and influence operations" that undermine stability in Ukraine, which the EU attributes to actions supporting the Russian government. These sanctions include an asset freeze and a travel ban within the EU, and prohibit EU citizens and companies from providing him with funds. This makes it difficult for him to receive royalties from his French publisher within the EU, for example.
• Allegations of Propaganda: Baud, a retired Swiss army colonel and former NATO and UN analyst, is described by sources as a mouthpiece for pro-Russian propaganda. His claims include that Ukraine orchestrated its own invasion to join NATO and questioning Russian responsibility in the Bucha massacre.
• Baud’s Denials: Jacques Baud rejects accusations that he spreads conspiracy theories and, in turn, has accused his own detractors of being "paid by foreigners".
• Known Income Sources: His current main publisher is the French company Max Milo. He is also an author of several books on intelligence and war.
While the EU has sanctioned him for actions supporting the Russian government's narrative, there is no direct evidence in the provided search results confirming a salary or direct payment from the Russian state to Jacques Baud. His financial support seems to come from his publications and media appearances, although the source of funding for the pro-Russian platforms he appears on is not specified.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Is+Jacques+Baud+paid+by+Russia
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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What are these "pro Russia" media?
Dialogue Works, hosted by Brazilian engineer Nima Alkhorshid?
Glenn Diesen, "a Norwegian political scientist, political commentator and politician currently serving as a professor at the Department of Business, History and Social Sciences, University of South-Eastern Norway."?
Colonel Daniel Davis (ret) on Deep Dive?
Die Weltwoche?
Vague accusations like that are just censorship.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:‘We are f–king fascists’ — Pussy Riot memoir looks at everything wrong with Russia
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
#Rootin4Putin
#FuckUkraine
#Rootin4Putin
#FuckUkraine
--------------------------------------------------
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Jacques Baud on Col Daniel Davis' Deep Dive channel explains why he never uses Russian sources or appears on Russian media, how there is no legal process or appeal to this extralegal political decision (sonce no laws were broken), and why even supporting him can get you in trouble.
So much for freedom of speech in the EU!
:HANG:
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Quote:A Russian agent interviewing a Russian agent: Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Davis has been characterized by some critics as a "Putin apologist" for repeatedly blaming NATO and Ukraine for the conflict and arguing that Ukraine must surrender territory to Russia to achieve peace. He maintains that these views are based on a "realistic" military assessment of Russia's advantages in manpower and industrial capacity.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Jacques Baud on Col Daniel Davis' Deep Dive channel
In March 2025, the Trump administration reportedly tapped Davis for the position of Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration. However, the offer was rescinded shortly after following public controversy over his "anti-Israel" and "anti-West" statements.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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‘Minimum Victory’
Weary of war and staring down the likelihood of an unjust peace, Ukrainian intellectuals are plotting out a road map for the future.
By Linda Kinstler | December 20, 2025
https://www.nybooks.com/online/2025/12/20/minimum-victory-ukraine-peac
e-talks/
On December 1, a group of prominent Ukrainian intellectuals and politicians published a manifesto in Ukrainska Pravda about how the war might end. “It is difficult to speak of victory,” it begins, “when the enemy is mounting unprecedented and at times successful ground attacks.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2025/12/01/8009732/
Already in August, when the group started drafting the text, Ukraine’s military was understaffed; new recruits were increasingly hard to come by, pushing the government to resort to violent tactics in its search of draft dodgers and deserters; and the Trump administration’s shifting policies were imperiling the army’s access to funding and weaponry. These trends have persisted in the months since.
https://www.equator.org/articles/the-demand-for-silence
The head of the armed forces of Ukraine reported last week that the army is currently seeing its highest daily volume of clashes with Russian soldiers since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/12/13/8011693/
Though the frontline has remained mostly static, the Russians continue their attempts to press forward on the battlefield and the Ukrainian public is growing weary of war. Whatever the terms of an eventual peace deal—if such a deal materializes at all—they will bring profound losses for Kyiv, its aspirations for NATO membership and the restoration of its occupied territories almost certainly among them. The manifesto aimed to give Ukrainians a vocabulary they could use to imagine this situation as anything other than a kind of defeat—a necessity, the authors believe, if the public is to accept what one MP recently called a “bad, or very bad” peace settlement. “There is despair in Ukraine, and people must be given hope,” the historian Yaroslav Hrytsak, one of the lead drafters, told me. “So we need to redefine victory.”
The document—which was written primarily for a domestic audience and signed by public intellectuals including the head of the Center for Civil Liberties Oleksandra Matviichuk, the writer Serhiy Zhadan, and the philosopher Volodymyr Yermolenko, as well as several current and former members of parliament and soldiers—offers two visions for Ukraine’s future. The first, which they call “maximum” victory, would entail the complete restoration of Ukrainian territory, international war crimes trials for Russian aggressors, the return of every single kidnapped child, prisoner of war, and civilian, and the payment of reparations. It would not only ensure the “final defeat of our enemy and the disappearance of the aggressor from the world stage,” the authors explain, but also secure Ukrainian membership in NATO and the European Union. This form of total victory is, at present, a distant dream.
The manifesto does not abandon the possibility that “maximum” victory may still one day be achieved and argues that Ukraine must continue working toward it. But for the time being the authors suggest that the country must be prepared to accept what they call “minimum victory.” This would include a cease-fire along the current frontlines, the maintenance of Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself, and the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty, among other measures. It would also, in the document’s telling, enable Ukraine to pivot from the current war of attrition to a policy of what former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a coauthor of the manifesto, has called “strategic neutralization.” Under this approach—which assumes that hostilities will continue even after any peace deal is signed—Ukraine would still be able to pursue targeted attacks on Russian military assets but would abandon the attempt to capture “every soldier or vehicle.”
Accepting this kind of “victory” would mean acknowledgi
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The Fewer Soldiers On The Front Line The Better
Comments on the interview with General Havrylov
Phillips P. OBrien
Dec 23
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-fewer-soldiers-on-the-front
-line
Hi All,
I thought I would follow up the interview that was held with General Havrylov yesterday with a short commentary piece focussing on the issue of Ukraine’s supposed manpower crisis. This idea has been a key part of the analysis for more than two years now, analysis saying Ukraine was on the verge of military failure. I will also include a special section for paying subscribers explaining, as best as I can, how Ukraine was able to successfully counterattack in the last few months north of Pokrovsk and around Kupyansk. Its a fascinating story and I have been publishing overwhelmingly free material, so thought I would provide you something special; a little Christmas present as it were.
By the way, if you have not watched the interview, here it is. I would strongly urge you to do so, as General Havrylov explains clearly and effectively how the fighting has evolved over the last few years and why the battlefield looks as it does now.
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/phillips-obrien-and-volodomyr-h
avrylov
How Did We Get Here?
Right off the bat what was interesting was the realization process that the Ukrainian military has had to undergo. As General Havrylov outlines at the start, the Ukrainians began the war with mostly Soviet-designed equipment and expecting to fight a combined arms war. What happened, however, was that technology, particularly the growth of UAVs (drones), started making such a plan impossible.
And it took a while for the Ukrainians to get here. He states that it was really not until 2025 that the Ukrainian military understood many aspects of the new, UAV-defined battlefield. A key moment in this process was the creation of a distinct Ukrainian UAV focussed military command, the Unmanned Systems Force, in 2024. This process was crucial, because until the realization of exactly how the battlefield had changed, Ukrainian casualties remained high. General Havrylov did not say this last statement exactly, but it was implied.
How Have UAVs Changed the Battlefield?
The first change started by the constant surveillance that UAVs could provide. As long as you had enough of them, and cheap First Person View (FPV) UAVs were fine, you could have a very good idea of what was happening on the battlefield. When UAVs were then also built to be offensive weapons (called Kamikaze drones at times) that was extremely important. It meant that not only vehicles, but also individual soldiers were in great peril almost as soon as they were identified.
This compounded so many things. Large logistic dumps had already been pushed back a great deal because of HIMARS, but now even small dumps were incredibly hard to protect, meaning that more and more supplies had to struggle even to reach the area of engagement.
This was when the creation of what Havrylov called the “Grey” Zone (its also been called the Kill Zone) really took off. It was the area between the two armies that was so regularly patrolled by UAVs that staying alive was almost impossible unless you had really good cover. Havrylov discusses the Grey Zone a great deal, saying now it is 10-15 kilometres wide but that the expectation soon is that it will grow to 25 or even 50 kilometres wide.
How Have the Russians Coped With This?
I do not know if you noticed, but the awesomely adaptive Russian military we have been hearing about for the last two years, sent some soldiers into the grey zone on horses the other day (where they were promptly killed).
This is just one example of what the Russians are doing—which is sacrificing their soldiers in many different ways to basically cross the Grey Zone and try to reach cover a little further forward. It can be horses, crawling, motorcycles, taking advantage of bad weather, etc, but the process is the same. Find some way to get some soldiers across the grey zone, even if you lose ma
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Quote:. Sometimes, SECOND, what sounds like a biased POV is the truth. It just sounds biased bc it's being viewed from a brainwashed perspective.
Originally posted by second:Quote:A Russian agent interviewing a Russian agent: Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Davis has been characterized by some critics as a "Putin apologist" for repeatedly blaming NATO and Ukraine for the conflict and arguing that Ukraine must surrender territory to Russia to achieve peace. He maintains that these views are based on a "realistic" military assessment of Russia's advantages in manpower and industrial capacity.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Jacques Baud on Col Daniel Davis' Deep Dive channel
In March 2025, the Trump administration reportedly tapped Davis for the position of Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration. However, the offer was rescinded shortly after following public controversy over his "anti-Israel" and "anti-West" statements.
I've been saying for YEARS that Russia was going to win this war. And yanno what?
Despite all the posted hopium, Russia is winning the war.
How do I know this?
Because Ukraine is resorting to terror attacks and assassination. Only desperate forces resort to such ineffective tactics.
Because Britain, Germany, and France- the three nations with the most invested in Ukraine - are trying to recover their money by robbing Russian assets knowing that Ukraine is a lost cause.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Quote:When the United States was firebombing Germany and Japan, it must have been losing the war to resort to such desperate tactics against women and children. The Axis powers could take delight in knowing that the USA would soon beg for peace. Those atomic bombs were the dying gasp of defeated Harry S. Truman before he killed himself by hara-kiri. The Emperor of Japan had destroyed the health of crippled President Roosevelt, and his feeble successor, President Truman, knew he was also doomed.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Russia is winning the war.
How do I know this?
Because Ukraine is resorting to terror attacks and assassination. Only desperate forces resort to such ineffective tactics.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:I'm not talking about firebombing, dummy. I'm talking about assassinations, terror attacks on entertainment centers, and pinprick sabotage. None of that is militarily significant.
Originally posted by second:Quote:When the United States was firebombing Germany and Japan, it must have been losing the war to resort to such desperate tactics against women and children. The Axis powers could take delight in knowing that the USA would soon beg for peace. Those atomic bombs were the dying gasp of defeated Harry S. Truman before he killed himself by hara-kiri. The Emperor of Japan had destroyed the health of President Roosevelt, and his feeble successor, President Truman, knew he was also doomed.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Russia is winning the war.
How do I know this?
Because Ukraine is resorting to terror attacks and assassination. Only desperate forces resort to such ineffective tactics.
------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Ukraine is FINISHED.
And nobody gives a shit. Nobody EVER gave a shit.
Even the furthest left brainwashed retards on Twitter took the Ukraine flags out of their bios over 2 years ago. That Fad died years ago. The trendsetting white liberal women found it unfashionable and everyone jumped ship, leaving nothing but a few of you weirdos and the NeoCons to try to keep anybody caring.
Where's Mila Kunis for instance. They couldn't get her to shut the fuck up about it for a couple of weeks, since she's from Ukraine or her family is or whatever, right?
Now I'm not saying she's still not out there doing it. Maybe she is. But I am saying that if she is, your Legacy Media hasn't been parading her around for a very long time. It's more likely they just paid her to talk and once that stopped keeping people on one station enough to sit through boner meds and car insurance commercials until she came back, they stopped paying her to tell people she gave a shit about Ukraine.
Shut the fuck up, Second.
Nobody gives a single fuck about Ukraine.
Nobody.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
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Quote:Signym, you have zero understanding of what is significant. And the people at the top don't know anymore than you do. During WWII, the US Air Force wasted an extraordinary number of planes to kill civilians who had no value as military targets. At the very end, Truman wasted the top-secret atomic bombs to kill even more civilians. After, the politicians spread the lie that the A-bomb ended the war. The same politicians took zero responsibility for starting the nuclear arms race, something that wouldn't have begun if only the politicians had shown self-restraint and the generals had not been such bloodthirsty fools.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:I'm not talking about firebombing, dummy. I'm talking about assassinations, terror attacks on entertainment centers, and pinprick sabotage. None of that is militarily significant.
Originally posted by second:Quote:When the United States was firebombing Germany and Japan, it must have been losing the war to resort to such desperate tactics against women and children. The Axis powers could take delight in knowing that the USA would soon beg for peace. Those atomic bombs were the dying gasp of defeated Harry S. Truman before he killed himself by hara-kiri. The Emperor of Japan had destroyed the health of President Roosevelt, and his feeble successor, President Truman, knew he was also doomed.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Russia is winning the war.
How do I know this?
Because Ukraine is resorting to terror attacks and assassination. Only desperate forces resort to such ineffective tactics.
Ukraine has a bloodthirsty fool for a general: Ukrainian Assault Troops Squandered One M-1 Tank In A Pointless Attack
Dec 23
https://www.trenchart.us/p/ukrainian-assault-troops-up-armored
After a grinding yearlong siege, the Russian Center Group of Forces has captured the ruins of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and 1st National Guard Corps have pulled back—and established a new defensive line threading through the very northern outskirts of Pokrovsk toward neighboring Myrnohrad, which is also mostly under Russian control.
The battle for Pokrovsk is over. Anyone pretending it’s not over is refusing to acknowledge the Russians’ five-to-one troop advantage—and also failing to understand that a mine-, drone- and artillery-first defense on open terrain, as opposed to an infantry-first urban defense, in better for manpower-starved Ukrainian forces.
Especially in Pokrovsk, where the Russians have fairly robust supply lines.
Count the commanders of the Ukrainian 425th Assault Regiment among those denying reality. On Dec. 20, the regiment organized some of its newly delivered ex-Australian M-1 Abrams tanks and upgraded BMP-1TS infantry fighting vehicles for a doomed assault along one of the most heavily droned roads into northern Pokrovsk.
Precious tanks
This year Australia delivered to Ukraine 49 2000s-vintage M-1A1s. They joined the survivors of 31 M-1A1s the United States delivered in 2023. After losses, the Ukrainians may have had around 60 of the 69-ton M-1s left prior to Dec. 20.
The type still equips the original Ukrainian Abrams unit, the 47th Mechanized Brigade. But some of the ex-Australian tanks belong to the 425th Assault Regiment.
Up-armored with explosive reactive armor bricks, rubber skirts and anti-drone screens, the 425th Assault Regiment’s M-1s are some of the best-protected tanks in Russia’s 46-month wider war on Ukraine.
But even the toughest tank is vulnerable to repeated strikes by explosive first-person-view drones. And the best FPV unit in the Russian armed forces, the Rubicon Center, patrols the road from Hryshyne into Pokrovsk alongside the battered, but still powerful, 76th Guards Air Assault Division.
So what happened to the 425th Assault Regiment’s M-1 column on Dec. 20 was all but inevitable. At least one M-1 “was detected and destroyed by the FPV drones of the Rubicon Center with the support of the 7
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Quote:Fearful Republicans wasted $20 trillion on nukes because they were scared of the Russian Army. Your typical Trumptard is too cowardly to get into a fight that he is not absolutely sure he can win. In contrast, the Ukrainians aren't cowards. They fight despite not knowing the eventual outcome. And they don't have nukes and are not intimidated, unlike Trumptards, by Russia's nukes.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Ukraine is FINISHED.
And nobody gives a shit. Nobody EVER gave a shit.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Ukraine has been implementing a long-term grand strategy they should have been allowed to pursue all along
Dec. 22, 2025, 7:05 pm
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/66284
Despite Washington’s attempts to limit Kyiv’s legitimate aerial counterattack, Ukraine is implementing its own variety of strategic campaigns
White House officials, from both the current, almost overtly pro-Kremlin Team Trump and the previous timidly pro-Kyiv Biden administration, have used diplomatic threats, political strings attached to US and European weaponry in Ukraine’s hands, and outright embargoes on Ukrainian use of NATO long-range strike munitions against Russia. The justification put forward by both the Biden and Trump administrations has been, simply put, that Washington thinks Ukraine, using sophisticated weapons to defend itself with long-distance attacks against Russia might make the Kremlin angry.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:Fearful Republicans wasted $20 trillion on nukes because they were scared of the Russian Army.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Ukraine is FINISHED.
And nobody gives a shit. Nobody EVER gave a shit.
No. They didn't.
Quote:
Your typical Trumptard is too cowardly to get into a fight that he is not absolutely sure he can win.
It's not our fight. And your pussy ass is too cowardly to do anything about anything.
You sit in your mom's basement and make toothless threats and assassination wishes all day, everyday.
You're a little bitch, dude. Go fuck yourself.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
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Oh. By the way...
Your little bitch ass Zelensky has a plan to end the war.
SPOILER ALERT: It's the same fucking plan that Trump had a few weeks ago that he said "ABSOLUTELY NO!" to.
Zelensky Proposes Demilitarized Zone in Eastern Ukraine as Way to Peace
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/zelensky-proposes-demilitarized-zone-
in-eastern-ukraine-as-way-to-peace-532a36e9?st=WU7znB
You lose, bitch.
Zelensky is a dead man walking.
--------------------------------------------------
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Quote:Remember this? http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=2&tid=67251&p=1 "HAKEN: THIS NEEDS TO STOP. IMMEDIATELY. I'M NOT ASKING ANYMORE." 6ixStringJoker begs for mercy, but there is none for Nazis.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
No. They didn't.
It's not our fight. And your pussy ass is too cowardly to do anything about anything.
You sit in your mom's basement and make toothless threats and assassination wishes all day, everyday.
You're a little bitch, dude. Go fuck yourself.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
6ixStringJoker threatened to kill himself, but he didn't. There is still time, 6ixStringJoker, to end Christmas tragically. Or if you are too cowardly today, then turn New Year's Day into a day of fatal mental illness for 6ix.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Russia is winning the war.
How do I know this?
Because Ukraine is resorting to terror attacks and assassination. Only desperate forces resort to such ineffective tactics.
SECOND:
When the United States was firebombing Germany and Japan, it must have been losing the war to resort to such desperate tactics against women and children. The Axis powers could take delight in knowing that the USA would soon beg for peace. Those atomic bombs were the dying gasp of defeated Harry S. Truman before he killed himself by hara-kiri. The Emperor of Japan had destroyed the health of President Roosevelt, and his feeble successor, President Truman, knew he was also doomed.
SIGNYM
I'm not talking about firebombing, dummy. I'm talking about assassinations, terror attacks on entertainment centers, and pinprick sabotage. None of that is militarily significant.
SECONDV
Signym, you have zero understanding of what is significant. And the people at the top don't know anymore than you do. During WWII, the US Air Force wasted an extraordinary number of planes to kill civilians who had no value as military targets. At the very end, Truman wasted the top-secret atomic bombs to kill even more civilians. After, the politicians spread the lie that the A-bomb ended the war. The same politicians took zero responsibility for starting the nuclear arms race, something that wouldn't have begun if only the politicians had shown self-restraint and the generals had not been such bloodthirsty fools.
Ukraine has a bloodthirsty fool for a general: Ukrainian Assault Troops Squandered One M-1 Tank In A Pointless Attack
Dec 23
https://www.trenchart.us/p/ukrainian-assault-troops-up-armored
After a grinding yearlong siege, the Russian Center Group of Forces has captured the ruins of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and 1st National Guard Corps have pulled back—and established a new defensive line threading through the very northern outskirts of Pokrovsk toward neighboring Myrnohrad, which is also mostly under Russian control.
The battle for Pokrovsk is over. Anyone pretending it’s not over is refusing to acknowledge the Russians’ five-to-one troop advantage—and also failing to understand that a mine-, drone- and artillery-first defense on open terrain, as opposed to an infantry-first urban defense, in better for manpower-starved Ukrainian forces.
Especially in Pokrovsk, where the Russians have fairly robust supply lines.
Count the commanders of the Ukrainian 425th Assault Regiment among those denying reality. On Dec. 20, the regiment organized some of its newly delivered ex-Australian M-1 Abrams tanks and upgraded BMP-1TS infantry fighting vehicles for a doomed assault along one of the most heavily droned roads into northern Pokrovsk.
Precious tanks
This year Australia delivered to Ukraine 49 2000s-vintage M-1A1s. They joined the survivors of 31 M-1A1s the United States delivered in 2023. After losses, the Ukrainians may have had around 60 of the 69-ton M-1s left prior to Dec. 20.
The type still equips the original Ukrainian Abrams unit, the 47th Mechanized Brigade. But some of the ex-Australian tanks belong to the 425th Assault Regiment.
Up-armored with explosive reactive armor bricks, rubber skirts and anti-drone screens, the 425th Assault Regiment’s M-1s are some of the best-protected tanks in Russia’s 46-month wider war on Ukraine.
But even the toughest tank is vulnerable to repeated strikes by explosive first-person-view drones. And the best FPV unit in the Russian armed forces, the Rubicon Center, patrols the road from Hryshyne into Pokrovsk alongside the battered, but still powerful, 76th Guards Air Assault Division.
So what happened to the 425th Assault Regiment’s M-1 column on Dec. 20 was all but inevitable. At least one M-1 “was detected and destroyed by the FPV drones of the Rubicon Center with the support of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division,” Rubicon reported—and posted video to prove it. An uNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:German and Japanese civilians, not just soldiers, were slaughtered by the millions. What did that accomplish? Germany and Japan became American allies. If those civilians hadn't died, and the survivors had not received a lesson on consequences for bad behavior, and if German and Japanese leaders had not been executed, America would have been in several more wars with Germany and Japan by now. If Russian civilians don't receive the same message during this war, Russia will be back at war with Ukraine soon after the next peace treaty.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
You're making my point for me. If firebombing and nuking civilians en masse is ineffective, how much LESS effective are assassinations, minor acts of sabotage, and terror attacks on entertainment centers? (Apparently British special services is in love with James Bondian sabotage and is urging that on Ukraine. )
And how desperate does Ukraine have to be to take that path?
Similarly, Vietnam only had to slaughter a few thousand Americans to accomplish the goal of WWII, making allies out of enemies. American civilians got the message, and now America is an ally of Vietnam. There have been no more wars between those countries.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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The widespread milblogger criticism of the Kremlin’s and the Russian military command’s false and exaggerated claims in Kupyansk further exposes how the ongoing Russian cognitive warfare effort, which aims to paint Ukrainian defenses as on the verge of collapse and major Russian battlefield victories as inevitable, does not reflect the battlefield realities.[22]
Russian milbloggers also acknowledged that Russia’s failures in Kupyansk indicate that Russia does not have sufficient manpower or materiel to imminently defeat the northern part of the Fortress Belt while simultaneously continuing offensive operations elsewhere. The Fortress Belt refers to Ukraine’s main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014 that includes four cities — Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka.[23]
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-december-24-2025/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
You're making my point for me. If firebombing and nuking civilians en masse is ineffective, how much LESS effective are assassinations, minor acts of sabotage, and terror attacks on entertainment centers? (Apparently British special services is in love with James Bondian sabotage and is urging that on Ukraine. )
And how desperate does Ukraine have to be to take that path?
SECOND:
German and Japanese civilians, not just soldiers, were slaughtered by the millions. What did that accomplish? Germany and Japan became American allies. If those civilians hadn't died, and the survivors had not received a lesson on consequences for bad behavior, and if German and Japanese leaders had not been executed, America would have been in several more wars with Germany and Japan by now. If Russian civilians don't receive the same message during this war, Russia will be back at war with Ukraine soon after the next peace treaty.
Similarly, Vietnam only had to slaughter a few thousand Americans to accomplish the goal of WWII, making allies out of enemies. American civilians got the message, and now America is an ally of Vietnam. There have been no more wars between those countries.
Wow, you have a weird reading of history.
A) Vietnam is NOT an 'ally'.
B) The Nuremberg trials were show trials. A few (37) top Nazis were tried, convicted, and sentenced to death, but thousands of ranking officers were never tried, many escaped (some with CIA help) to the Americas, and Nazi scientists were recruited in Operation paperclip. Leading to the Nazification of a segment of top families in politics. There was a large population of pro-Nazi Hungarians in Canada and pro-Nazi military in Ukraine, for example. And I don't mean Nazi-flavored, I mean with pictures of Hitler or Bandera, and Nazi ideology and symbols. Given the number of high ranking, ideologically minded Nazis who escaped trial, Nazism was never really eradicated.
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Quote:A) Yes, the U.S. and Vietnam are now close partners, elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) in 2023, moving far beyond their past conflict to focus on economic, security (especially maritime), and people-to-people ties, with shared goals for regional stability against growing Chinese influence. While not a formal military alliance in the traditional NATO sense, they cooperate extensively, treating each other as trusted partners and important players in the Indo-Pacific.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Wow, you have a weird reading of history.
A) Vietnam is NOT an 'ally'.
B) The Nuremberg trials were show trials. A few (37) top Nazis were tried, convicted, and sentenced to death, but thousands of ranking officers were never tried, many escaped (some with CIA help) to the Americas, and Nazi scientists were recruited in Operation paperclip. Leading to the Nazification of a segment of top families in politics. There was a large population of pro-Nazi Hungarians in Canada and pro-Nazi military in Ukraine, for example. And I don't mean Nazi-flavored, I mean with pictures of Hitler or Bandera, and Nazi ideology and symbols. Given the number of high ranking, ideologically minded Nazis who escaped trial, Nazism was never really eradicated.
Key Aspects of the Relationship:
• Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: This framework, established in 2023, guides deepening cooperation across all sectors.
• Economic Powerhouse: The U.S. is Vietnam's second-largest trading partner, with trade growing significantly since normalization in 1995.
• Security Cooperation: Both nations work together on maritime security and addressing challenges from China's assertiveness in the South China Sea.
• Shared Vision: Both countries advocate for a rules-based international order, allowing nations to prosper without domination by any single power.
• Reconciliation: A strong focus on overcoming the legacy of the Vietnam War has fostered trust and a forward-looking relationship.
In essence, while they have different political systems, the U.S. and Vietnam are strategic partners with a strong, pragmatic relationship built on mutual respect and shared interests, especially in a changing geopolitical landscape.
https://www.google.com/search?q=is+vietnam+an+american+ally
B) America has two incompatible systems to change the minds of its enemies: the military system and the legal system. The military changes the minds of America's enemies with a bullet. The entire process takes one second from start to finish. The legal system attempts to convince a captured enemy of America (and anyone who has infinite patience) that the enemy's behavior was wrong. The entire legal process is extremely slow, expensive, and cannot be widely used because it requires tens of millions of lawyers, which America does not have, unlike bullets, which are abundant.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Why Russians haven't risen up to stop the Ukraine war
Inspired in part by state propaganda, many in Russia have developed an anti-Western identity
By Anna Matveeva | Dec 25, 2025
Dr. Anna Matveeva is a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at King’s College London, Russia Institute https://www.kcl.ac.uk/people/anna-matveeva
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/russian-identity/
After its emergence from the Soviet collapse, the new Russia grappled with the complex issue of developing a national identity that could embrace the radical contradictions of Russia’s past and foster integration with the West while maintaining Russian distinctiveness.
The Ukraine War has significantly changed public attitudes toward this question, and led to a consolidation of most of the Russian population behind a set of national ideas. This has contributed to the resilience that Russia has shown in the war, and helped to frustrate Western hopes that economic pressure and heavy casualties would undermine support for the war and for President Vladimir Putin. To judge by the evidence to date, there is very little hope of these Western goals being achieved in the future.
The first post-Soviet president, Boris Yeltsin, sought a radical break with communism and based his rule on the negation of his country’s — and his own — past, leaving Russia with a profound sense of negative identity. Vladimir Putin, upon assuming office, presented a more positive vision centered on integration with the West (albeit on Russian terms and predicated on retaining Russian independence), but it foundered in the face of irreconcilable differences between Russia and the West.
The state has since struggled to articulate a coherent conception of identity that would define Russia’s distinctiveness. Only World War II emerged as a potential unifier, with the majority of Russians expressing their pride in Russia’s role in it, and it acquired an almost religious reverence within the leadership’s narrative.
Apart from pride in the “Great Patriotic War” (as World War II is known in Russia), the overall public response to identity construction was for a long time lukewarm. When the war in Ukraine started, without any warning to the Russian public, it was initially met with disbelief, confusion, and bewilderment. Most were concerned with their chances to navigate the troubled waters rather than providing support for their country.
No longer. Nearly four years of war has profoundly transformed Russia. Fostered by state propaganda, many ordinary Russians have developed a sense of pride that Russia has survived in the face of Western hostility. This feeling has been fed by Western expressions of contempt toward the Russian people and Russian culture — insults that are assiduously quoted by the state-controlled Russian media. The Russian public struggles to see how the situation can be viewed from the other side and acknowledge that Western concerns may have grounds behind them; for example, the Kremlin’s attempts at meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections better explain the negative attitudes toward Russia in Washington, rather than pre-existing cultural prejudices.
For some time now, patriotism has appeared to be ascendant: recruitment progresses steadily, men are willing to serve (admittedly in return for extremely high wages), and the “Help the Army” movement by women and pensioners shows no sign of abating. Speaking against the tide is considered socially unacceptable as well as dangerous.
Even though it was Russia that invaded Ukraine and that continues to attack the formerly ‘brotherly nation’, many in Russia view the war as defensive in nature and inevitable. A perception of external threat united much of the nation, and anti-Westernism became pervasive. Many Russians have become convinced that the West means Russia no good and, given an opportunity, would seek to inflict harm, unless it is strong enough to protect itself.
The state, which has a responsibility to protect, should be supported — paradoxically even when, as exemplified by
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A) Vietnam and BRICS
Quote:
Vietnam takes a risk and a chance on BRICS
Vietnam aligns with Russia-China-led bloc while bidding to maintain strategic partnership and market access with US
On June 13, 2025, BRICS officially welcomed Vietnam as “a partner country”, marking a significant milestone in Hanoi’s foreign policy. This decision reflects a carefully planned strategy, developed over years, to diversify Vietnam’s international relations and strengthen its position in a multipolar world.
By aligning with BRICS – a bloc comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and recently expanded to include other emerging economies –Vietnam aims to reduce its dependence on specific partners while navigating complex global dynamics.
Vietnam’s relationship with the United States, elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership in September 2023, has faced challenges since the re-election of President Donald Trump.
The Trump administration has imposed stringent tariff barriers and scrutinized Vietnam’s trade practices, particularly its role as a potential conduit for Chinese goods entering the US market.
Hanoi, acutely aware of these tensions, seeks to balance its economic ties with the US by deepening engagement with other global players. Joining BRICS is a strategic step in this direction, aligning Vietnam with a bloc that collectively represents over 40% of the world’s population and a significant share of global GDP.
Vietnam’s accession to BRICS, even as a partner rather than a full member, carries both opportunities and risks. On one hand, it enhances Hanoi’s access to economic resources, particularly from China, a dominant BRICS member.
Recent agreements with Beijing, including financing for a high-speed railway project connecting Vietnam and China and other infrastructure initiatives, underscore Vietnam’s reliance on Chinese loans and technical expertise.
These projects are critical for modernizing Vietnam’s economy, which remains heavily dependent on foreign investment to sustain growth. BRICS membership also offers Vietnam a platform to advocate for a more equitable global economic order, aligning with the bloc’s calls for reforming institutions like the United Nations and the World Bank.
However, this move risks straining relations with the US under the Trump administration, which targets China’s economic influence. The US has expressed concerns that Vietnam serves as a transit hub for Chinese goods relabeled to evade US tariffs.
MORE AT https://asiatimes.com/2025/06/vietnam-takes-a-risk-and-a-chance-on-bri
cs/
Quote:
Is the U.S. Losing in Vietnam? Russia, North Korea and China Are Gaining.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/vietnam-russia-relations
.html
I understand Vietnam's fear of China. I asked a Burmese coworker about that and she said that there is a signficant minority of ethnic Chinese in Myanmar, that they tend to be business owners and wealthier, and are resented. Plus, there are maritime disputes.
So altho China is Vietnam's BIGGEST trading partner, Vietnam needs to try, at least, keep its options open.
BRICS isn't an exclusive organization, but since Trump is trying to force nations into an "either/ or" choice while at the same time driving nations away with his tariff policy, he is forcing Vietnam into closer BRICS ties.
B)
Quote:
America has two incompatible systems to change the minds of its enemies: the military system and the legal system. The military changes the minds of America's enemies with a bullet. The entire process takes one second from start to finish. The legal system attempts to convince a captured enemy of America (and anyone who has infinite patience) that the enemy's behavior was wrong. The entire legal process is extremely slow, expensive, and cannot be widely used because it requires tens of millions of lawyers, which America does not have, unlike bulNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Why Russians haven't risen up to stop the Ukraine war
Inspiredin part by state propaganda,by rampant anti-Russian hostility and actions by western neocons and warhawks, many in Russia have developed an anti-Western identity
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Putin’s Ukraine War Is Killing Russia’s Poorest
December 25, 2025
By: Stavros Atlamazoglou
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/putins-ukraine-war-is-killing-r
ussias-poor-not-its-cities-sa-122525
Russia’s intentional avoidance of deploying residents of large urban centers is aimed at preventing political instability.
The Kremlin relies on troops for rural regions to wage its offensive war in Ukraine.
A report by an independent Russian media outlet revealed that Russians living in large urban centers contribute very little to the Kremlin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Rural Russians Are Dying in Large Numbers
The independent Russian media outlet Proekt recently came out with the results of a large-scale study on Russian military casualties in Ukraine. The study found that less than 1 percent of Russian state officials have relatives who have deployed in Ukraine. Moreover, the study found that an unequal contribution of troops from large urban centers compared to rural areas of Russia.
“Whilst Russia has sustained continuously high casualty rates since launching the illegal, full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including likely more than 400,000 killed and wounded in both 2025 and in 2024, ethnic Russians from cities continue to contribute a disproportionately small share of service personnel and resultant casualties relative to the rest of the population,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed in its latest intelligence update on the Ukrainian conflict.
In total, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties in almost four years of fighting. Out of those casualties, Western intelligence estimates put the number of killed in action at over 250,000, with the rest being wounded. For comparison, the initial Russian invasion force numbered approximately 190,000 troops.
To sustain that number of losses, the Russian Ministry of Defense has had to be creative, offering large sign-up bonuses, pressing into service convicts with the promise of freedom, and relying on foreign mercenaries.
The avoidance of deploying residents of large urban centers is aimed at preventing political instability.
“By focusing recruitment efforts disproportionately on impoverished regions, often predominantly populated by ethnic minorities, Russia’s state apparatus better leverages financial inducements, whilst also limiting the impact on those urban-dwelling parts of the Russian population that have greater political agency,” the British Ministry of Defence added.
Russia’s Tolerance for Steep Casualties
The Russian political and military leadership is prepared to take extremely high losses in Ukraine to achieve the invasion goals.
“Russian President Putin and the Russian senior leadership are almost certainly prepared to tolerate continuously high casualty rates so long as this does not negatively affect public or elite support for the war, and those losses can be replaced,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded in its intelligence assessment.
In recent remarks to senior defense officials, the Russian leader stated a commitment to continue waging war against Ukraine until the Kremlin’s objectives are met. However, Putin was not clear as to Russia’s exact objectives. Indeed, they could range from the initial goals to topple the Ukrainian government and replace it with a puppet state to territorial concessions in eastern and southern Ukraine.
At different points in the war, all of the above have been at some point Moscow’s goals. And the appetite of the Russian bear seems to be growing, depending on how well the fighting is going on the battlefield.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ Sc
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Russian milbloggers continued to blame Russia’s deteriorating situation in Kupyansk on the widespread Russian practice of sending false reports up the chain of command.[33] A Russian milblogger assessed that the Russian military command will need to redeploy additional forces to the Kupyansk sector and adjust their plans to reflect the actual situation – not the “reported situation” – in order to stabilize the area.[34] The milblogger assessed that a rapid turnaround in Russia’s favor is unlikely, however. Another Russian milblogger stated that Russia’s problems with false reports about Kupyansk have been accumulating since Summer 2025, when the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces had semi-encircled Kupyansk and seized a number of settlements to the west.[35] The milblogger stated that Russian forces never established solid and sustainable control over Radkivka, Myrove, and Sobolivka (all northwest and west of Kupyansk), however, and that Ukrainian forces were able to exploit these weak points. The milblogger added that Russian forces only controlled slightly more than half of Kupyansk when the Russian MoD announced the seizure of the town in late November 2025. The Russian milblogger active in crowdfunding efforts amplified footage of a Russian soldier commenting on Kupyansk, stating that you cannot surrender something you have not completely captured.[36]
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-december-26-2025/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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In the Kharkiv region, the Strix reconnaissance and strike unmanned aerial systems unit of the 4th border detachment thwarted an insidious attempt by the occupiers to cross the border across the Lozova River. The Russian invaders waded through icy water, but they were warmly welcomed by drones of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, which is an integral part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and effectively counters Russian aggression. As a result of the precise and coordinated work of the UAV operators, the enemy offensive was thwarted. At least nine occupiers will no longer see the New Year. Join the Strix reconnaissance and strike unmanned systems team of the 4th border detachment. Your role can be decisive
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/27/ukraines-border-drones-kill-nin
e-russians-caught-crossing-icy-river/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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The Russian MoD is likely now doubling down on its efforts to cover up its failures in Kupyansk in order to not weaken Russia’s position in the ongoing peace talks with the United States. The scale of available open-source evidence of Ukrainian advances in the Kupyansk direction, coupled with the uncharacteristically high number of corroborating reports from Russian sources who do not typically discuss Ukrainian battlefield successes, seriously undermine the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort that aims to paint a Russian military victory as inevitable and Ukrainian defenses on the verge of collapse.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-december-27-2025/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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When it comes to the Trump administration, I can say with confidence that it is an enemy of Ukraine.
By Askold S. Lozynskyj | Dec. 27, 2025, 10:57 am
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/67018
. . . By chance as I surfed the networks I came upon Vice President JD Vance’s speech at Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA conference last Sunday in Phoenix, Arizona. Initially, Vance made two major points, sounding very much like an American Hitler, which he once called Donald Trump. He insisted that white people should not apologize for being white and he demanded patriotism. I did not fully understand what he was saying since I had never heard a white person in America apologize for being white. But I have heard American white supremacists vilify people of other races, particularly the black race.
To me Vance’s words sounded like an excuse for the denigration over centuries of those who were not white. I used to think that Vance was not a white supremacist, since he had chosen a non-white spouse. Perhaps that was simply good for his political career. Vance is notorious for being an unprincipled panderer. I suppose that is why he is the Vice President. His position on Trump evolved 180 degrees.
As to demanding patriotism, I am not sure that in a democracy one should demand patriotism from others. Patriotism is a personal choice of devotion to one’s country because of what it stands for.
All of history’s thugs demanded patriotism, aka fealty to the fatherland in the person of the great leader. Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, Mao, Putin, and yes, now Trump, all demanded fealty and patriotism. Demanding patriotism is a strictly authoritarian or fascist approach to governing.
Vance went on to denigrate “antifa” as if it were a terrorist structure in America today. I could not understand what he was trying to say. “Antifa” has no structure, cells or members. Ideologically I consider myself an “antifa” because I am antifascist. I consider Trump and Vance fascist. Their policies and behavior are fascist.
Certainly the most egregious statement by Vance was:
“We help older Americans in retirement, including by ending taxes on Social Security, because we believe in honoring your father and mother rather than shipping all of their money off to Ukraine.”
It was a complete non sequitur and entirely gratuitous coming out of the blue. Vance had not spoken about Ukraine. True, after the recent Miami peace talks he had sided with Russia. If I had not been convinced previously that the Trump administration was replete with Russian assets, this nailed it. This hillbilly JD Vance is certainly a Russian asset and, perhaps, an agent. He should be investigated, beginning with his impoverished hillbilly background as well as his post-high school military service and ultimate GI admission to Yale law school. Russians feed on these types and work assiduously in making them influential, and thus helpful.
Vance has been in the Russian camp throughout his term. In fact, he was one of the major instigators during the shameless behavior by the Trump administration in February this year hosting Ukraine’s President Zelensky in the Oval Office.
And so my conclusion at this time is that Ukraine, with the help of its European allies and its 25 million diaspora, must fight on without American assistance. America has not betrayed Ukraine. Trump, Vance and the like have betrayed America and Ukraine. So our fight is with the Russians and those who serve them. There is no question anymore that this White House is an enemy of Ukraine.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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It is time for Trump to permit Raytheon to sell Tomahawks to Ukraine. Think of all the money Raytheon will earn. Think of intimidating Putin into peace.
U.S. Orders Additional Tomahawk Cruise Missiles
December 27, 2025
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/us_orders_additional_tomahawk_cru
ise_missiles_even_cheaper_due_to_large_order-16960.html
Raytheon is to produce 219 Tomahawk cruise missiles for $384 million.
Unit cost is $1.75 million.
In December 19, 2024, Raytheon received an order for 131 cruise missiles priced at $401.2 million. Unit cost is $3.063 million.
This quite clearly demonstrates how much the cost of a unit of production can decrease depending on the volume of production.
Previously, the production rate was supposed to be a nominal 3.35 missiles per month, and now the average Tomahawk production rate should increase to a nominal 7.14 missiles per month.
_______________
I know a country that needs 3,000 Tomahawks and, most importantly, has the money!
Perhaps the unit cost could be lowered to $1 million with such a large order. And the production rate could be increased to 30 missiles per month. Or even 60 per month!
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Storm Shadow/Scalp Cruise missiles show the importance of Taurus/Tomahawks
Phillips P. OBrien | Dec 28, 2025
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-165-why-the-pant
omime
Western cruise missiles remain very important for Ukraine. The US and Germany have both weakened Ukraine by not providing such systems to the Ukrainians. While the Russians have continued their terror campaign on Ukrainian cities, launching two large attacks on Kyiv this week, the Ukrainians have continued their campaign against legitimate military-industrial targets.
Three days ago, the Ukrainian general staff announced an attack on the large Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's Rostov Oblast. Interestingly, they specified that in this case the attack was at least partly made by the British/French Storm Shadow/Scalp Cruise missile.
Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia burns after explosions
The Russian Novoshakhtinsk refinery—before the Storm Shadows appeared.
Normally we have to assume that when such systems are used, the Ukrainians consider it a very high value target and one that they believe that their own systems would struggle to damage in needed ways. This attack, for instance, was a repeat attack on the same facility, and there seems to have been a large number of systems involved as up to ten major explosions were recorded.
The issue with the Storm Shadows is that Ukraine only has a small number of them, and they are actually less effective than US or German equivalents. The Taurus, for instance, has better range and punch than the Storm Shadows, which is why it is the preferred missile in Europe these days. Likewise, the US-made Tomahawk missile has much greater range than the Storm Shadows.
And the US and Germany are both increasing production of newer cruise missiles, which would allow them to part with these older systems. Still, they are not being sent. The US is more on Russia’s side these days, so was just bluffing about Tomahawks earlier. However the Germans seem, even more than the British and French, to understand the real peril Europe is in. It is worth noting, then that they have an ability to help Ukraine in a way that no other power does (other than the USA).
Ukraine has shown what it can do with inferior systems. What they could do with better ones would be notable. I am not holding out hope that this will happen. However, it is worth pointing out.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Ukrainian military dismisses two brigade commanders after Siversk debacle traced to false reporting
Two Ukrainian brigade commanders are out after investigations revealed they falsely reported troop presence in Siversk while positions stood empty, allowing Russian forces to capture the northern Donetsk city with minimal resistance
By Maria Tril | Dec 27, 2025
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/27/ukrainian-military-dismisses-tw
o-brigade-commanders-after-siversk-debacle-traced-to-false-reporting/
Following the rapid fall of Siversk in northern Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian military command has dismissed the leaders of two brigades responsible for the city's defense, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing three sources in the Defense Forces. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/12/27/8013612/
Colonel Oleksiy Konoval, commander of the 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade which held positions directly in Siversk, has been removed from his post. Colonel Volodymyr Poteshkin, commander of the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade stationed south of the city, is currently receiving medical treatment and will likely be dismissed upon his return to service, according to UP's sources.
The dismissals stem from systematically false reporting by both brigade commanders, UP has learned. They reported maintaining positions in their areas of responsibility that had in fact been abandoned by personnel long before. "The lie came to light during the rapid loss of the entire city," UP reports. Russia announced the capture of Siversk on 12 December.
The 11th Army Corps, which had operational command over both the 54th and 10th brigades, trusted the brigades' reports and believed they reflected reality on the ground, according to UP's sources. Inspectors from the corps regularly visited the units but detected no problems or discrepancies between reports and the actual battlefield situation, as these were "constantly concealed," UP's interlocutors said.
The Eastern Grouping of Forces removed the 11th Corps and its commander, Brigadier General Serhiy Sirchenko, from managing the Siversk situation. A tactical group called "Soledar" was formed for this sector, headed by Brigadier General Denys Maistrenko, the former commander of the 54th Brigade who now leads the Desna training center. UP's sources who have worked with Maistrenko give positive assessments of his leadership.
Inspection commissions have been dispatched to both the 54th and 10th brigades. The Soledar tactical group also came under the oversight of Eastern Grouping commander Brigadier General Dmytro Bratishko.
UP reports that Bratishko was furious upon learning of Siversk's loss and demanded the Ukrainian flag be raised over the partially captured city by almost any means necessary. A flag was then delivered via FPV drones—which are currently in short supply—to operators from the 54th Brigade, who flew it on drones to the railway station building in Siversk. "All this was done to create a 'flag video' and please the Eastern Grouping commander," according to UP.
Russian forces captured Siversk by exploiting the dense fog that blanketed Donetsk Oblast in November and December 2025, UP's sources say. Starting around 20 November, the 54th Brigade began losing the capacity to destroy Russian forces in the numbers they were infiltrating the city. "For example, out of 15 occupiers, they managed to destroy 10, while the other 5 imperceptibly seeped deeper into the city and established positions," UP reports.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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The second largest city in Zaparozhiy region, Huliapole, was taken by Russua.
The city of Myrnograd is finally under Russian control, turning the town cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnograd fully under Russian control.
Having occupied Sirversk, Russian forces are advancing towards the city of Slavyansk.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of 14.4 square kilometers per day in 2025, meaning it would take Russian forces until April 1, 2029 (1,190 days) to seize the rest of the four oblasts should the current tempo persist.
This calculation, however, does not take into account the many obstacles Russian forces would face along the way, such as crossing the Dnipro River, overcoming other water features throughout the oblasts, and seizing the major cities of Zaporizhzhia City (with a pre-war population of about 710,000 people) and Kherson City (with a pre-war population of about 280,000).
Russian advances are not likely to be linear, and it will likely take Russian forces longer than 1,190 days to seize all four oblasts.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-december-28-2025/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Bundestag members call for supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine
by Iryna Kutielieva | 28 December, 17:36
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/12/28/8013729/
Omid Nouripour, Vice President of Germany's Bundestag, who represents the Greens, has called for the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
Source: German press agency n-tv, as reported by European Pravda
Quote: "It is good that Chancellor Merz is laying claim to a leadership role for Germany. Merz must now stick to what he rightly demanded while in opposition and clear the way for Taurus deliveries."
Details: Nouripour stressed that refusing to supply cruise missiles to Ukraine would cost human lives.
Quote: "It is not enough simply to support the Ukrainian president in phone calls. The EU must increase pressure on Putin. Putin is the only one who can immediately put an end to this horrific war. Without pressure, he will not budge."
Background:
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said in summer that he was taking a cautious approach to an initiative to supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles.
For their part, Germany's Greens have urged the government to provide greater support for Ukraine, including by supplying Taurus cruise missiles.
________________
A German Taurus missile costs roughly €1 million to €1.5 million ($1.1 to $1.6 million USD) per unit for existing stock, but new advanced Taurus Neo missiles are priced higher, with recent plans for 600 units costing around €2.1 billion, equating to about €3.5 million ($3.8 million USD) per missile including support, though experts estimate the base missile cost closer to €1.75-€2 million.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Why the Pantomime by Trump? It Has Always Been About Defending Putin
And Perhaps Getting A Nobel Prize
By Phillips P. OBrien | Dec 29, 2025
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/why-the-pantomime-its-always-be
en
Let’s start with two recent quotes about Vladimir Putin.
The first was a claim by President Trump yesterday during the press conference he held with President Zelensky after the latest episode of the long-running pantomime negotiations between the USA, Ukraine and Russia.
“Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed…President Putin was very generous in his feeling toward Ukraine succeeding, including supplying energy, electricity and other things at very low prices.”
And then this quote from Trump’s chief of staff and intimate, Suzie Wiles, in her extraordinary Vanity Fair interview. It has the ring of truth
“The experts think that if he (Putin) could get the rest of Donetsk, then he would be happy,” Wiles told me in August. But privately, Trump wasn’t buying it—he didn’t believe Putin wanted peace. “Donald Trump thinks he wants the whole country,” Wiles told me.
Both of these statements cannot be true. Indeed they cancel each other out. There is one that is far more likely to be true (Wiles estimation) and one that was almost certainly a lie (what Trump said yesterday).
The statement by Trump that Putin wants to see Ukraine succeed seems to have been deliberate choice by Donald Trump to deceive. The reason for that lie is to protect Vladimir Putin and mislead the American people (and the world) about Russia’s intentions. It explains why this pantomime is no joke or “nothingburger”. Instead, it has been deadly effective and it serves Russian interests and has protected Russia for almost a year and threatens to do so well into a second year.
Btw, you can watch the whole press conference here. The lie about Putin wanting Ukraine to succeed comes at 20:05.
The fact was that Trump spent most of the press conference yesterday either defending or praising Putin and undermining the Ukrainian position. It is indicative of why he is doing what he is doing and why it has been so effective. This whole pantomime is not a “nothingburger” or anything like that. It is a very effective con that has gone on for almost a year, which has provided protection to Putin/Russia and strung along Europeans and Ukrainians. Moreover, it is a pantomime that Trump will keep going as long as possible.
Lets look at other examples of how Trump defended or praised Putin during the press conference yesterday. Will include the time stamps so you can check
The Praise For Putin.
Trump gushed about the closeness of his relationship with Putin and it came up regularly during the press conference. He boasted about how long the Trump-Putin phone call was before the meeting with Zelensky—”two and a half hours” (17:11).
btw, that really is extraordinary. Before meeting with Zelensky for far less than 2.5 hours, Trump initiated a call with Putin to coordinate plans. And afterwards Trump was slated to call Putin as well for a debrief. He clearly gets nervous about operating without Putin’s advice.
Moreover, Trump a number of times waxed rhapsodical about the closeness of his connection to Putin and in particular how the two bonded about what he calls the Russia “hoax”, but of course which was very real. Here was the first mention (10:27).
“Uh, and I spoke with President Putin. I got along with him very well despite the Russia Russia Russia hoax, which was a total hoax. Used to say, "What is going on over there?" But it was a total hoax as he knew and as I knew.”
Here was the second mention, which shows Trump believes they have bonded (16:03).
“Don’t forget we went through the Russia Russia Russia hoax together. And he'd call me, I'd call him, I'd say, "Can you believe the stuff that they're making up?" And it turned out we were right.”
Finally, Trump feels so close to Putin that he explains the Russian dictator’s opinions and
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TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP 
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Quote:6ix, will you ever know that you, Trump and Putin are evil and all of you earned your misfortunes? Self-awareness only comes in bursts and spurts for you three, but then you force the realization back into the darkest recesses of your minds where it won’t bother you until the next time the evil thoughts escape out of your mouths and fingertips as you type. 6IXSTRINGJACK wrote on Tuesday, December 2, 2025 1:35 PM
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
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Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
Quote:http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=2&tid=67251&p=1
If I do end up killing myself, I'll make sure to remark in the suicide note to pour over this site, along with the long list of abuse, constant suggestions out of the both of them that I kill myself, death threats and assassination fantasies out of second, and for them to find Second and Ted in real life, and have my family sue all three of you. My disabled brother would at least never have to worry about anything in his life if that's the way this all goes.
I think I'm okay with that outcome.
Putin has made the same threat to kill himself (as 6ixStringJoker did, above) and the world if Russia isn’t victorious in Ukraine:
While Vladimir Putin has used various phrases to suggest that Russia's defeat in Ukraine would have global consequences, his most direct quote regarding the necessity of Russia's existence for the world's survival is: "Why do we need a world if there is no Russia in it?".
This statement and similar rhetoric have been reinforced by recent actions and warnings throughout 2024 and 2025:
• Nuclear Doctrine Revision (2024): On November 19, 2024, Putin formally signed a revised nuclear doctrine that lowered the threshold for the use of atomic weapons. The new policy allows for a nuclear response to conventional attacks that pose a "critical threat" to Russia's sovereignty, as well as joint attacks by non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers.
• Civilizational Threat Warning (2024): In his 2024 State of the Nation address, Putin warned that Western intervention in Ukraine "threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization".
• Ultimatum for Victory (2025): Throughout 2025, Putin has maintained that the only way to end the war is for Russia to achieve its goals by force if Ukraine and the West do not agree to his terms, which include total control over annexed territories.
• Escalatory Rhetoric: In December 2025, Putin stated that if Europe were to start a war with Russia, it would end so swiftly that there would be "no one left to negotiate with". He has also hinted at the possibility of using nuclear weapons to bring the invasion to its "logical conclusion".
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wa
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Dr. Strangelove or: How the West taught Putin to stop worrying and love his bombs
By Andrew Chakhoyan | December 29, 2025 9:18 PM
Academic director at the University of Amsterdam
https://kyivindependent.com/dr-strangelove-or-how-the-west-taught-puti
n-to-stop-worrying-and-love-his-bombs/
In Netflix's House of Dynamite, a ballistic missile hurtles toward the United States, the nightmare scenario that keeps defense planners awake at night. Yet the West's Russia policies, over the past decade, have done more to increase the odds of such a catastrophe than prevent it.
Washington's unwitting effort to teach Moscow that nuclear threats work and aggression pays has culminated in a 28-point dictator’s wishlist, bizarrely presented as a "peace plan."
The United States, the world’s most powerful nation, is chasing Kyiv for territorial sacrifices while meekly pleading with the predator state to accept them.
This approach to peacemaking is as helpful as pouring vodka on a raging fire. Expansionist wars end only in one of two ways: the aggressor is defeated, as Hitler reminded us in 1945, or the cost of continuing outweighs the gains, as Russia learned in Afghanistan in 1989. There is no third way.
Zoom out from the 24-hour news cycle and the absurdity slaps you in the face. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. For nearly a decade, Western capitals buried their heads in the sand, offering only halves of half-measures. Moscow predictably read this as a green light to escalate. But after 2022, when Russian tanks rolled over Ukraine’s sovereign border en masse, looking the other way ceased to be a viable option.
In early 2025, the Trump administration recognized that peace negotiations are a two-step process – hostilities must be halted first, and everything else comes after. Within 24 hours of the March Jeddah talks, Ukraine accepted the unconditional ceasefire – demonstrating it wants peace, not war.
And Russia? Before the Americans put a ceasefire on the agenda, it was murdering Ukrainian children in their beds with depraved regularity, and so it continues to this day. Russia commits unimaginable, most heinous war crimes; the world watches.
Rejecting peace at every turn, the aggressor was given the famous "two weeks" deadline, on repeat. But those came and went without serious consequences. Russia effectively spat in the face of American negotiators, and the White House failed to find the resolve and wisdom to respond.
Empty demands, unbacked by pressure, do not deter colonial revanchism. They invite, incentivize, and assure it.
If Ukraine were to offer preemptive concessions, it would derail the very goals Western leaders are pursuing. Only the willfully blind wouldn't see that yielding to a violent aggressor, like Russia, is a straight line to a larger war. To advocate for peace through strength is not warmongering; abandoning it, is.
History has run this macabre experiment — repeatedly. Europe's political class convinced itself in 1938 that handing Hitler the Sudetenland would secure "peace for our time." Instead, it taught the Nazi regime that democracies lacked resolve. The result wasn't stability — it was a continent-wide inferno.
When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, the West pushed Tbilisi into a ceasefire while Moscow consolidated territorial control. The aggressor paid no price. Six years later, Russia returned to this script in Crimea, then Donbas. Every off-ramp became the runway for the Kremlin's escalation.
No Western concession can alter Moscow's trajectory toward Beijing, because that alignment is structural. Russia's extractive economy is export-dependent, and its military-industrial base cannot function without Chinese inputs. Most critically, Russia's imperial ethos requires perpetual confrontation with the West as a way to legitimize despotic rule. That naturally drives Moscow into Beijing's arms.
A Russia kicked out of Ukraine has at least a theoretical chance to rethink its colonizer identity and
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:6ix, will you ever know that you, Trump
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
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Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
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Russia claims Ukraine allegedly attacked Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Valdai residence.
Peace plan 90% agreed. Then Putin called Trump. Now Trump is “very angry” at Ukraine, except the “attack” did not happen.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/29/peace-plan-90-agreed-then-putin
-called-trump-now-trump-is-very-angry-at-ukraine/
Why is the residence attack a lie?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has claimed that on the night of 29 December, Ukraine allegedly tried to attack Putin’s residence with 91 drones. However, the Russian Ministry of Defense itself confirms other numbers, Spravdi reports.
According to the data:
From 11:00 PM on 28 December to 07:00 AM on 29 December — 18 UAVs over Novgorod Oblast;
From 07:00 to 09:00 AM — another 23 drones.
In total, 41 drones, not 91 as Lavrov claims. These numbers are also confirmed by the governor of Novgorod Oblast, with no mention of an “attack on the residence.”
Authorities in the Valdai district, where Putin’s residence is located, reported no emergencies. District head Yuriy Stade held a scheduled public broadcast on social media, without mentioning attacks or security threats.
Lavrov's statement about 91 drones that allegedly attacked Putin's residence is not confirmed by any other official statements from the Russian side, neither the Ministry of Defense, nor the regional authorities, nor local structures.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Russia losing six times more troops on front line than Ukraine
By Kateryna Shkarlat | Mon, December 29, 2025 – 20:55
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-losing-six-times-more-troops-on
-front-1767033826.html
Russia is losing six times more troops on the front line than Ukraine. Daily losses of the Russian army on the front amount to 1,000–1,100 soldiers, states the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, in an interview with Channel 24.
He was asked about the number of irreversible enemy losses, referencing Russian calculations of contracts signed with the armed forces. In particular, the Russian army faces a discrepancy of roughly one and a half million between those reportedly enlisted in the military and the 700,000 currently at the front.
"Yes, these are real losses. This is evidenced by the fact that the enemy planned to form 14 new divisions this year. Only seven were actually formed: two marine divisions consist of just one regiment each. The formation of the other seven brigades has been postponed to next year," Syrskyi said.
Russia is forced to take personnel from these divisions and assign them to combat units, confirming the aggressor country’s problems with manpower recruitment.
"This is facilitated by the effectiveness of our forces. The latest figures show that daily enemy losses average 1,000–1,100 personnel," the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported.
He also confirmed the difference in losses between Russia and Ukraine — the Russian forces are losing roughly six times more soldiers than the Ukrainians.
"This is the difference specifically in killed personnel. This is the total figure across all branches of the Armed Forces," Syrskyi emphasized.
Russian losses in the war
Since the start of the full-scale war, the aggressor country has lost 1,205,690 soldiers on the front. In particular, enemy losses on December 28 amounted to 1,180 troops.
Western officials told the Financial Times that Russian generals often lie to President Vladimir Putin about the situation on the front. For this reason, the Kremlin leader believes that Russia could allegedly defeat Ukraine.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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US peace efforts make a full circle, as Putin tells Trump Ukraine out to kill him
By Oleksiy Sorokin | December 30, 2025 1:57 pm
https://kyivindependent.com/us-peace-efforts-make-full-circle-as-putin
-tells-trump-ukraine-out-to-kill-him/
Donald Trump’s peace negotiations have seemingly made a full circle.
After U.S. pressuring Ukraine to accept an unfavorable peace settlement, Kyiv spent over a month renegotiating the offer and getting close to receiving Trump's blessing on a revised proposal.
Then Vladimir Putin called. Twice.
A few hours before the second call, on Dec. 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Ukrainian drones had allegedly attempted to strike Putin's state residence with 91 drones in Russia's Novgorod Oblast overnight.
No evidence had been provided of the following claim. That didn’t matter.
The following day, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov had doubled down on the claim that Ukraine was to assassinate the Russian president, once again directing the comments to Trump.
"It's not just directed against President Putin personally. It's also directed against Trump, aimed at thwarting President Trump's efforts to promote a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian conflict," Peskov said on Dec. 30.
"'May he perish,' each of us may think to ourselves," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his Christmas Eve address, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Peskov tied the two events together. “I'd like to recall Zelensky's Christmas address and the words he addressed to Putin,” he said.
Trump’s response was predictable.
"I don't like it. It's not good. I heard about it this morning. You know who told me about it? President Putin told me about it ... I was very angry about it," Trump said on Dec. 29 after holding a call with the Russian president.
When questioned on the source, Trump hesitated.
“You're saying maybe the attack didn't take place? That's possible too, I guess. But President Putin told me this morning it did."
Zelensky on Dec. 29 dismissed Russia's claims as "another lie," warning that Moscow is using the allegation to justify potential strikes, most likely targeting Kyiv.
"With this statement about an alleged attack on some residence, they are preparing the ground to strike, most likely the capital and government buildings," Zelensky said.
Yet, the Ukrainian president’s comments fell flat.
“Deeply concerned by reports of the targeting of the residence of the president of the Russian Federation. Ongoing diplomatic efforts offer the most viable path toward ending hostilities and achieving peace. We urge all concerned to remain focused on these efforts and to avoid any actions that could undermine them,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote on X in English and Russian on Dec. 30.
The leaders of Russian-friendly Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan held phone calls with Putin, condemning the attack that has yet to be confirmed.
“Pakistan condemns the reported targeting of the residence of His Excellency Vladimir Putin, president of the Russian Federation. Such a heinous act constitutes a grave threat to peace, security, and stability, particularly at a time when efforts aimed at peace are underway,” wrote Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
“Pakistan expresses its solidarity with the president of the Russian Federation, and with the government and people of Russia,” wrote Sharif, as Russia was bombing Ukrainian civilians, cutting millions of people in Kyiv and other major cities from power and heating.
The ease with which Russia was able to gather support for its president and war effort has puzzled Ukraine.
“Almost a day passed, and Russia still hasn’t provided any plausible evidence to its accusations of Ukraine’s alleged ‘attack on Putin’s residence.’ And they won’t. Because there’s none,” Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote on X on Dec. 30.
“We were disappointed and concerned to see the statements by Emir
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Trump says he believed Putin's lie because Putin owns Trump. How much did Putin pay?
Valdai Residents Report No Signs of Claimed Ukrainian Drone Attack on Putin Residence
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/30/valdai-residents-report-no-s
igns-of-claimed-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-putin-residence-a91581
“There was no noise that night, no explosions, nothing,” one resident was quoted as saying. “If something like that had happened, the whole town would have been talking about it.”
__________
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: Russia's tale of attack on Putin residence is merely pretext to abandon peace efforts
By Alona Mazurenko | 30 December, 14:51
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/12/30/8014002/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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In this exclusive interview, Peter Pomerantsev (author of "How to Win an Information War") reveals how Sefton Delmer's "black propaganda" operations defeated Nazi Germany by appealing to Germans' "inner pig dog" — their greed, self-interest, and desire for survival — rather than their moral conscience. (What moral conscience? Had they fully functioning moral consciences rather than partial ones extending only a tiny distance beyond their own skin? This is news to me that Russians, Nazis and Trumptards had moral consciences. Since when? I have NEVER seen any evidence for that idea from Trumptards' behavior toward those who aren’t either family or nearly identical to them.)
Ukrainian psychological operations teams have rediscovered Delmer's counterintuitive insights: telling Russians about rising crime rates works better than showing them war crimes.
Download the book from https://annas-archive.org/search?q=Peter+Pomerantsev
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Ukrainian commanders neglected the defense of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Now the town has fallen … and the chaos has just begun.
By David Axe | Dec 30, 2025
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/30/huliaipole-has-fallen/
Struggling to mobilize enough fresh manpower to fully replace its losses along the front line, the Ukrainian military now has precious few reserves. And that means commanders must make hard choices about where to attack, where to defend ... and where to hope the Russians don't exploit gaps in Ukrainian lines.
It's now evident that, in recent months, the Ukrainian brass chose to attack in Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast in the northeast, defend around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast in the east ... and accept a high degree of risk around Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the southeast.
But hope isn't much of a strategy. Sensing weakness, the powerful Russian Dnipro Group of Forces moved aggressively against Huliaipole, a critical strongpoint for the defense of Zaporizhzhia city, 80 km to the west. Abruptly just before Christmas, the Russian 57th Motor Rifle Brigade captured the town.
Huliaipole was the largest and most fortified Ukrainian stronghold in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast—a town that had long remained impregnable while Russian forces battered themselves against its defenses from multiple directions.
Its fall—chaotic, with at least two top officers killed or captured, a command post abandoned with equipment still inside—wasn't a sudden collapse. It was the predictable result of defending with a few territorial battalions what needed a full brigade. Russia still recruits over 30,000 soldiers monthly. Ukraine doesn't. The 80-km path to Zaporizhzhia city and its 700,000 residents is now open.
A gamble that didn't pay off
Now Ukrainian defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are in disarray. And it's unclear whether, or how, the Ukrainian 17th Army Corps can prevent further Russian gains—and stave off a direct threat to Zaporizhzhia city and its approximately 700,000 residents.
Ukrainian forces that should be reconsolidating west of Huliaipole have wasted precious people and equipment in a bizarre local counterattack toward Rivnopillia, 9 km east of Huliaipole.
Maps and more at https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/30/huliaipole-has-fallen/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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ISW has observed evidence indicating a Russian presence (either through assaults or infiltration missions) in 4,899.75 kilometers in 2025 — indicating that Russian forces have sustained at least 83 casualties per square kilometer.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-december-30-2025/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:How To Kill 50 Russians On 1 Road In 1 Night
Originally posted by second:
ISW has observed evidence indicating a Russian presence (either through assaults or infiltration missions) in 4,899.75 kilometers in 2025 — indicating that Russian forces have sustained at least 83 casualties per square kilometer.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-december-30-2025/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
First, wait for the Russians to walk in a straight line without thermal camo—and then swarm them with bomber drones
Dec 30, 2025
https://www.trenchart.us/p/how-to-kill-50-russians-on-1-road
The village of Novopavlivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, lies roughly halfway between between two eastern hotspots: the ruins of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast and the ruins of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Capturing Novopavlivka would bring the Russians a few miles closer to the city of Pavlohrad, a strategic hub for Ukrainian forces in Dnipropetrovsk. But that effort suffered a setback this week when Ukrainian bomber drones massacred an entire platoon of Russian infantry marching along a road apparently around five miles east of Novopavlivka.
Yes, the Kremlin can afford to lose 50 infantry. But it can’t afford to frequently lose 50 infantry. Russian manages to recruit enough fresh troops every month to make good its losses—30,000 or so—but only barely.
In fact, it’s possible that in recent weeks, Russian losses finally exceeded Russian recruitment. The Russian military may finally be shrinking the way the Ukrainian military has been shrinking for many months now.
One night apparently this week, a Russian unit—possibly the 27th Motor Rifle Division—reportedly tried to rotate forces along the front line near Novopavlivka, where Russian and Ukrainian troops have been taking turns attacking in recent days.
But the Russians took few of the usual precautions. They moved out in an orderly column, seemingly without wearing the thermal cloaks that might’ve masked their body heat and helped them blend in with the snowy landscape on Ukrainian drones’ infrared sensors.
A Ukrainian surveillance drone spotted the platoon column: bright hot bodies standing out like beacons on the dark cold landscape. Heavy bomber drones swarmed the road. One grenade at a time, the bombers reportedly massacred the entire platoon.
There’s a lot we don’t know. The geolocation is tentative. We have video of the initial surveillance (see at top). But ostensibly related videos of grenade drops (see above) might actually be associated with a different time and place.
But we know Novopavlivka is important. It wouldn’t be surprising for the Russians to rush fresh infantry into the sector. Likewise, it wouldn’t be surprising for the Ukrainians to deploy a large number of bomber drones in the area.
While Russian formations to the left and right advance through Huliaipole and Pokrovsk, the 27th Motor Rifle Division and adjacent units are trying to push through Novopavlivka and surrounding villages—and enjoying some success despite horrific losses.
The pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team, citing the Ukrainian Deep State analysis group, reported Russian gains in Novopavlivka this week. But then, the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted a Ukrainian counterattack from Novopavlivka around the same time.
One thing is clear. “The contested area has expanded,” CIT observed.
The bomber drone massacre along that road, if indeed it’s the road observers suspect it is, underscores Russian and Ukrainian advantages in the area. The Russians enjoy a significant manpower advantage—it’s five to one in many sectors.
But the Ukrainians still enjoy a drone advantage. The Russians can, at times, match the Ukrainians in smaller first-person-view drones. But Russia has consistently lagged behind Ukraine when it comes to reusable bomber drones.
Those bomber drones absolut
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2025 In Review: The Year The US Changed Sides
Among many stories, one stands out
By Phillips P. OBrien
Dec 31, 2025
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/2025-in-review-the-year-the-us-
changed
US aid, as Trump boasted about in front of Zelensky on Sunday, is over. The US is only selling small amounts of military equipment (at high profit margins) to European states, allowing them to pass on material to Ukraine. The US has ruled out, seemingly into perpetuity, Ukrainian membership of NATO, has called for the cessation of not only conquered lands, but unconquered part of Ukraine to Russia. It has called for an amnesty for Russian war criminals, the return of Russian seized assets, and even restrictions on Ukrainian sovereignty going forward.
Overall, the US was treating Ukraine as a partner by the end of 2024 and is now treating that country as an annoyance to be put in its place in the US's quest for better relations with Russia.
The US has changed sides.
___________
Phillips Payson O'Brien is an American historian and professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, Scotland. He was formerly at the University of Glasgow where he ran the Scottish Centre for War Studies.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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The single most important development that will unfold during 2026 are the U.S. midterm elections that will take place in November.
By Francis Fukuyama | December 30, 2025 8:34 PM
https://kyivindependent.com/francis-fukuyama-what-to-expect-in-2026/
The world has seen a dramatic regression of liberal democracies worldwide over the past decade. Two large authoritarian powers, Russia and China, have tightened repression at home and projected their influence around the world.
But critically, their rise has been abetted by the growth of populist nationalist parties in many developed democracies. The most important of these is the United States itself, which over the prior 70 years had created and led a global liberal order.
The election of Donald Trump, first in 2016 and then a second time in 2024, has reoriented that global order in dramatic ways.
Trump’s America has in effect switched sides in the global struggle for democracy, making deals with authoritarian leaders and disdaining democratically elected counterparts in Europe and Asia. This dramatic shift has affected Ukraine first and foremost, with the US ending direct military support and promoting Russian war aims as it seeks a deal with Moscow over the heads of both Ukraine and the Europeans.
At home, Trump is behaving like an autocrat himself, disdaining legality and ruling through executive orders.
During the Biden administration, I and many other supporters of Ukraine lobbied the White House to be more forthcoming in both the level of aid, and the types of weapons being provided to Kyiv. That period ended decisively when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. The disastrous meeting in the White House between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky in February signaled the new orientation the administration would take, and the U.S. president has not really deviated from his pro-Russian posture since then.
This has completely changed the agenda for Ukraine's friends in the U.S. It is no longer useful or possible to lobby for stronger American support when the administration is now siding with the enemy. Donald Trump is not driven by policy arguments or ideology, but rather by personal self-interest, often in the form of direct payoffs to himself and his family.
Ask the Swiss, who got themselves a lower tariff rate by giving Trump an expensive gold bar. Trump's primary interest in the current negotiation with Russia seems to be the prospect of exploiting Ukraine's resources and reintegrating Russia into the global economic order so that Americans could start profiting from investments there again.
The only way that an American can support Ukraine or democracy worldwide is to get Trump out of power. The American system of checks and balances has so far failed to constrain Trump, but it is premature to give up on it. In my view, Trump's influence peaked in the first half of 2025, and there are now clear signs that he is weakening.
The most important check remains elections, and there is strong evidence that the Democrats will retake the House of Representatives next November.
As a result of Trump’s mismanagement of the economy, many voters have soured on him. The off-year election held in November showed Democrats winning by substantial margins across the board. Already more than two dozen Republican members of the House have announced that they will not be running for re-election, primarily because they don't want to be in the minority after the midterms.
The scandal surrounding Jeffrey Epstein has damaged Trump among his core supporters. His tariff policy has been making life more expensive for ordinary Americans, even as he tries to assert that prices are actually going down. Trump will seek to distract people's attention by ramping up pressure on Venezuela and using military power around the world, but that is not why his core supporters voted for him.
If the Democrats retake the House of Representatives, they will hold hearings, subpoena Cabinet members, and investigate th
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Oh No...
T 
NEW YEAR IN MOSCOW: NO ELECTRICITY AND NO INTERNET Vlog 1275: War in Ukraine
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Look how happy Ted's psycho Libtard is in that clickbait thumbnail.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
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12,035 obituaries for Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine in October 2025. That is 388 per day.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62n922dnw7o
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Russian forces seized 4,831 square kilometers in Ukraine in 2025.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-december-31-2025/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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From the start of the German invasion of Russia (Operation Barbarossa) on June 22, 1941, to Germany's unconditional surrender on May 8, 1945 (V-E Day), there were 1,416 days.
1,407 days between January 1, 2026, and February 24, 2022, the day Russia invaded Ukraine.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Dull reality is slowly seeping into Putin's mind. He expresses no hope that his war will end this year or in the next, but perhaps in 2028.
Putin's New Year speech lauds Russia's war, makes no mention of peace in Ukraine.
Putin's speech avoided any mention of Ukraine, peace talks, or plans to bring the war to an end in 2026.
https://kyivindependent.com/we-believe-in-our-victory-putins-new-year-
speech-shows-no-intention-to-end-the-war-in-2026/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Dull reality is slowly seeping into Putin's mind. He expresses no hope that his war will end this year or in the next, but perhaps in 2028.
Putin's New Year speech lauds Russia's war, makes no mention of peace in Ukraine.
Putin's speech avoided any mention of Ukraine, peace talks, or plans to bring the war to an end in 2026.
https://kyivindependent.com/we-believe-in-our-victory-putins-new-year-
speech-shows-no-intention-to-end-the-war-in-2026/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
I hope Russia collapses tomorrow.
T
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Quote:Ukraine is a bear trap that Russia stepped into. Russia will have to chew off its own leg to escape.
Originally posted by THG:
I hope Russia collapses tomorrow.
T
Putin’s 5 Strategic Miscalculations
https://www.dagens.com/war/putins-5-biggest-strategic-miscalculations-
in-the-war-on-ukraine
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin framed it as a brief yet decisive moment that would reshape Europe’s security order. Instead, the conflict has evolved into a prolonged war that continues to strain Russia’s military power, economy, and international standing. Analysts argue that this outcome was not inevitable. Rather, it flowed from a series of fundamental choices that went wrong and reinforced one another over time.
1. A war that never needed to start
Perhaps the most consequential mistake was the decision to launch the invasion at all. What was intended as a quick victory after a brief show of force turned into a grinding conflict with no clear end. Russia is now locked into a war it cannot easily win or abandon. The political, diplomatic and economic costs have far exceeded what the Kremlin anticipated at the outset.
2. Misreading Ukraine
Moscow expected Ukraine to fracture under pressure and offer only limited resistance. Instead, the invasion unified Ukrainian society and strengthened its sense of national identity. This miscalculation also extended to Ukraine’s partners. Western governments responded faster and more decisively than the Kremlin had expected, supplying weapons, intelligence and financial support that proved critical to Kyiv’s defence.
3. Too few forces, too late
Russia’s initial assault relied on a limited number of troops, reflecting confidence that Ukrainian resistance would collapse quickly. That assumption proved false. When Kyiv held firm, Russian forces lacked the manpower and logistics needed for a rapid breakthrough. The failure to commit sufficient forces early on cost Russia momentum and contributed to heavy losses.
4. Turning the war into destiny
By framing the invasion as an existential struggle for Russia’s survival, Vladimir Putin raised the stakes dramatically. Such rhetoric left little room for compromise or a negotiated exit. This approach also hardened opposition abroad and at home. Defeat or retreat, once politically manageable, became far more dangerous for the Kremlin to contemplate.
5. Strengthening the very alliance he feared
One of the war’s most ironic outcomes has been the revival of NATO. Rather than weakening the alliance, Russia’s actions unified it. Finland and Sweden joined, defence budgets increased and NATO’s presence along Russia’s borders expanded. The bloc Putin sought to intimidate is now more cohesive than it has been in decades.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Dec 29, 2025
Germany's Skynex system has destroyed Russian cruise missiles, including the Kh-101 and Caliber, with Ukrainian crews praising its effectiveness, marking a crucial step in enhancing Ukraine's air defense system.
List of video sources https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kanZcmvOOxPxW9Woz0uT5Z9iyRQUq7zE_C
1_s0VHqyw/edit?tab=t.0
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Putin’s Threats to Europe: Anatomy of a Great Deception
Putin’s bluff relies on his opponent not looking at the cards, as he seeks to turn Europe’s insecurity into his own projection of strength.
By Dr. Orhan Dragas | Jan. 1, 2026, 12:58 pm
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/67259
For the European public, 2025 felt like déjà vu. As they watched battles near Kharkiv and in the Donetsk region, many wondered if Russian President Vladimir Putin was preparing to “occupy” Berlin, Paris or Warsaw after Ukraine.
Propaganda broadcasts on Russian state channels and melodramatic headlines in Western tabloids fueled fears. People forgot that in February 2022, the Kremlin promised a “special military operation” lasting only a few days and a march on Kyiv. Four years later, the Russian army was frantically trying to capture eastern Ukrainian cities while defending its own regions against Ukrainian drones.
Putin has been threatening Europe for three years with the same language he used to threaten Ukraine in 2021. The only difference is that Europe thought it was a bluff then, but now it acts like it was unavoidable. In both cases, the mistake is the same. The first time, Europe underestimated reality; the second time, it overestimated fantasy.
In the meantime, the Russian state is engaged in an attrition-based war against a nation it had intended to destroy in a matter of days. That war is not being fought on the Rhine, the Vistula, or NATO’s borders. The battle is taking place deep in eastern Ukraine, characterized by significant losses, improvisation, mass mobilization, and a growing reliance on domestic repression.
The Russian army is stranded in the trenches, relying on the large-scale mobilization of prison recruits and ammunition from Iran and North Korea. This is not the image of a force about to march on Paris and Berlin. It is the image of a country trying not to lose the war it has already started in Ukraine.
Yet instead of this failure weakening the Russian threat in European perception, the opposite is happening: the weaker Russia is on the battlefield, the louder it is in the media.
This is no accident. It is the old logic of authoritarian regimes: when real power declines, symbolic power must shout.
And just at the moment when the difference between myth and reality is most obvious, Europe begins to act as if the myth is prevailing.
There is that scene in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail” where the knight, who has had both arms and one leg cut off, keeps shouting, “It’s just a flesh wound!” and calls on his opponent to come back and fight “like a man.” The scene is funny because it is absurd. But it would be even funnier if the audience began to seriously consider whether that knight really posed an existential threat.
Europe today, unfortunately, is doing just that.
Putin has been threatening war with Europe for years. He threatens Britain, France, Germany, and Poland. He threatens NATO. He threatens the “collective West.” He threatens a nuclear response, “unprecedented escalation,” and “historic consequences.” The longer the war in Ukraine continues, the greater the Russian losses. The more distant the goals become, the more theatrical the threats grow.
Putin’s bluff
Let us repeat: Russia has been waging war against a single country for the fourth year. Not against a bloc. Not against an alliance. Not against a continent. Against Ukraine. The war, which was supposed to last several days, has turned into an exhausting conflict in which Moscow is losing men, technology, and strategic initiative, while simultaneously trying to convince the world that it is ready for war with all of Europe.
But this is not even a strategy. It is a bluff that relies on the opponent not looking at the cards. However, if the cards are examined, the game ends.
All this would be merely grotesque. What is becoming dangerous is that part of the European public and political elite begins to treat these threats as a real military projection, rather than as what they are: a substitute f
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Why The Constant Failure To Understand War?
Phillips P. OBrien
Jan 02, 2026
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/why-the-constant-failure-to-und
erstand
Why does the analytical community in the USA fail repeatedly to properly understand and evaluate what matters in a war? This obviously came into focus in late 2021 and early 2022 when analysts within and outside government had no idea how to understand what a Russian invasion of Ukraine would look like. Since then things have arguably not improved and could be said to be getting worse.
There have been repeated mistakes in judging what matters, from “strategic Pokrovsk” (which the BBC is still pushing), to what I would argue is the enormous consensus that Ukraine was going to collapse from a manpower crisis and needed to draft all its young people. This last point was a chorus all year, whether one was pro-Trump or Trump-skeptical. In January 2025, Mike Waltz, who was then the incoming National Security Adviser, went on US television and said Ukraine needed to draft everyone from 18 year old on upwards. He even said they needed to do it to be “all in for democracy”. The irony of a man who was about to help enable Trump screw over democratic Ukraine for dictatorial Russia is beyond parody. And the chorus never let up. Two weeks ago John Bolton, not Trump’s favorite man, claimed that Ukraine needed to lower the draft age to 18 to “get more men on the battlefield”. Actually, Ukraine needs to find further ways to reduce the number of men on the battlefield, not raise it. But hey.
This consensus in the US discussion is fascinating, and it has reached the point that US voices are even telling Ukraine that it needs to draft all its women. The extraordinary confidence/arrogance coming from the US on this question, which pays no attention to the very nuanced Ukrainian discussion of the same question, is not only depressing, it is a key indicator of just why the US has failed utterly during the period of its hegemony.
Much more at https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/why-the-constant-failure-to-und
erstand?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share from the author of How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II (Cambridge Military Histories)
Download for free from https://annas-archive.org/search?q=Phillips+Payson+O%27Brien+War+Power
https://z-lib.fm/s/?q=Phillips+Payson+O%27Brien+War+Power
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Russian forces occupied 4,336 square kilometers (1,674 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in 2025, the Ukrainian open-source mapping project DeepState reported in a year-end assessment published on Jan. 1.
According to DeepState, Russian forces managed to capture 0.72% of Ukraine's total territory over the past year, including territory in oblasts not previously occupied.
Amid the Russian advances, Donetsk Oblast saw the highest percentage increase of Ukrainian land seized by Russian forces at nearly 78% of the oblast's territory occupied — a 10 percentage point increase year-over-year.
According to DeepState, Russian forces have now captured approximately 75% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, up slightly from about 73% at the end of 2024, while Kherson Oblast remains at 72% occupied.
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-captured-over-4-300-square-kilomete
rs-of-ukraine-in-2025-deepstate-reports/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Ukraine holds 10,000 Russian POWs but Moscow prefer ‘ethnic’ Russians returned
The Kremlin is far from eager to bring all of them home.
By Kathrine Frich | Jan 2, 2026
https://www.dagens.com/war/ukraine-holds-10000-russian-pows-but-moscow
-mainly-wants-ethnic-russians-back
Thousands of Russian soldiers captured during the war in Ukraine remain in detention, offering a rare insight into how Moscow has fought the conflict.
The data sheds light not only on the scale of surrender but also on who Russia prioritises in prisoner exchanges.
Scale of captivity
More than 10,000 Russian servicemen have been taken prisoner by Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to the “I Want to Live” project.
The initiative analysed records of prisoners of war and published its first comprehensive statistics, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine.
The authors said that Russia most often asks for the return of ethnic Russians from the Moscow region, as well as from Krasnodar and Perm, when negotiating exchanges.
Surrenders rising
The report shows a steady increase in Russian soldiers surrendering over time.
In the first half of 2025 alone, more Russian troops were captured than during all of 2022 and 2023 combined.
At that stage, between 60 and 90 soldiers were surrendering each week. In August 2024, the figure peaked at around 350 per week.
Since June 2023, Ukrainian forces have taken more Russian prisoners than the number of Ukrainians captured by Russia.
Where they were captured
Most prisoners were taken in eastern and southern combat zones, including the Pokrovsk and Bakhmut areas of Donetsk region, Russia’s Kursk region, and the Polohy district of Zaporizhzhia region.
In 2025, the number of foreign fighters captured also increased.
The project said nearly 7% of prisoners were mercenaries from around 40 countries, with two to three surrendering each week.
Who the prisoners are
The majority of prisoners are contract soldiers, while senior officers are rare. The highest recorded rank was colonel. Ages ranged from 18 to 65 at the time of capture.
According to the report, about 76% were contract soldiers, including recruits from prisons and private military companies.
Around 19% were mobilised troops and nearly 5% were conscripts. Almost a quarter said they were forced or deceived into joining the war.
Criminal pasts and returns
The analysis found that 40% of prisoners had criminal records, most commonly for theft, drug offences, robbery, assault or murder.
Education levels were low, with only 7% holding university degrees.
More than 6,000 prisoners have been returned to Russia through exchanges. Over half of those swaps took place in 2025.
The project said it was aware of at least 237 former prisoners who were later killed or went missing after being sent back to the front.
The ethnic makeup of exchanges also differed. While ethnic Russians made up 66% of all prisoners, they accounted for 83% of those returned, suggesting a clear preference by Moscow.
Sources: Interfax-Ukraine, “I Want to Live” project, Ziare.com
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Dull reality is slowly seeping into Putin's mind. He expresses no hope that his war will end this year or in the next, but perhaps in 2028.
Putin's New Year speech lauds Russia's war, makes no mention of peace in Ukraine.
Putin's speech avoided any mention of Ukraine, peace talks, or plans to bring the war to an end in 2026.
https://kyivindependent.com/we-believe-in-our-victory-putins-new-year-
speech-shows-no-intention-to-end-the-war-in-2026/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
I hope Russia collapses tomorrow.
T
tick tock tick tock...
T
Russian banks just went into crisis mode! Collapse possible.
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Inside the fight for Ukraine's river islands
By Olena Zashko, Francis Farrell
Jan 2, 2026
Along the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, the front line has remained largely static, but fighting continues every day. The Kyiv Independent’s Francis Farrell and Olena Zashko embedded with Ukraine’s forces in Kherson Oblast, following FPV drone and night bomber teams tasked with defending river islands. The two also joined river operations training to see how such missions differ from those on land. From daytime drone flights to nighttime logistics missions, the report shows how the war on the Dnipro River is fought — and how soldiers endure it.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Belarus says it’s working with Russia to put nuclear warheads on its 290-kilometer range Polonez missile systems.
The announcement appears to be part of Russia’s continuous strategy of nuclear blackmail, which has intensified since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.
Russia has already transferred Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles into Belarusian territory — these weapons are able to mount both conventional and nuclear warheads.
However, these actions don't mean that the Kremlin will have the guts to hit the launch button.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/02/belarus-boasts-of-tactical-nuke
s-that-can-reach-four-european-capitals/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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The Russian Strategy Would Normally Be Seen As A Failure
It was a year that in terms of the front line saw approximately the same changes as in 2024—and that means minimal. Russian territorial gains in Ukraine remained at less than 1 percent for the year, yet their casualties were enormous, so much so that maintaining present strength seems to be the best the Russians can do. This kind of strategy would, historically, be seen as a strategy of failure. It is doing little in the way of strategic damage to Ukraine, costing a great deal and gaining little territory. Yet the narrative, too much controlled by Washington, is that the Russian strategy is inexorably rolling to victory. That needs a reset.
At the end of 2025 many different groups, analysts did a calculation of all the territory that Russia had seized during the year. The best, by the way, was from the Institute for the Study of War, which is linked to here. In these different reports there were charts, discussions of trends, etc. However the key one was sometimes overlooked. During all of 2025, and at vast cost, the Russians seized less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory. The ISW calculated that they took 0.8 of 1 percent.
And that territory was of no strategic value. Most of it was empty fields that the Russians seized using their infiltration tactics—often troops running forward, or on motorcycles or horses, just to the next tree line or structure and hoping to reach it before being killed. Most of the time they are killed or wounded, but sometimes they reach cover—and huzzah the map line shifts incrementally. No wonder that sensible analysts, such as in this CSIS report, understand that Russian battlefield performance has major weaknesses.
At the same time, the Ukrainians seem to be reducing their casualties and replacing manpower in the front line with machine (I refer you to my discussion with General Havrylov).
This in almost all historical cases would be considered a Russian strategy of failure. They are wasting their military resources for tiny gains, not taking any territory that effects Ukrainian force generation, and will, eventually see a declining military efficiency. As long as Ukraine can keep casualties down, the Russians will find themselves in the mother of all quagmires.
And yet that is not the portrayal. Mostly because of the narrative in Washington, but as much because Europeans are afraid to act on their own, the general portrayal of the war is that Ukraine is the one withering (we have had more than 2 years of manpower crisis stories which hint darkly that Ukraine is about to collapse—and yet amazingly Russian advances have flatlined). Naturally Donald Trump has been key in spreading this idea. He even reinforced it in front of President Zelensky just the other day. Trump claimed that Ukraine needs to take the bad deal he wants to force on them, because Russia is going to seize Ukrainian territory anyway. Here was the exact quote.
“well I think uh the land you're talking about some of that land has been taken some of that land is maybe up for grabs, but it may be taken over the next period of a number of months and you're better off making a deal.”
Phillips P. OBrien
Jan 04, 2026
More at https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-166-the-russian-
strategy
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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US will get back all money spent on Ukraine, Trump says
Mon, January 05, 2026 - 08:30
Author: Kateryna Danishevska
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/us-will-get-back-all-money-spent-on-uk
raine-1767594199.html
US President Donald Trump said he believes Washington will be able to recover all the money that was spent on Ukraine during the Trump administration, the White House reports.
While speaking to the press, Trump said the war in Ukraine currently costs the United States nothing. According to him, Washington is making money instead.
"In fact, we make money because, unlike Biden (former US President Joe Biden - ed.), Biden gave $350 billion, gave it away," the US president said.
He added that, thanks to a rare earth deal, Ukraine has already returned a significant portion of the funds spent to the United States. At the same time, Trump believes there will be even more returns.
"Now, I got a lot of it back because we did a rare earth deal going into rare earth. And we're going to get a lot of that money back. Maybe all of the money, maybe more than all of the money," the White House chief concluded.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Poland: For a fair peace in Ukraine, the Russian elite has to accept invasion was a mistake
Jan 5, 2026
https://www.dagens.com/news/poland-for-a-fair-peace-in-ukraine-the-rus
sian-elite-has-to-accept-invasion-was-a-mistake
We will get a fair solution only once Russian elites have concluded that the original invasion was a mistake and that the aim of rebuilding the Russian empire is unachievable.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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When will Ukraine start receiving €90 billion EU loan? European Commission responds
Author: Kateryna Shkarlat | Mon, January 05, 2026 - 17:02
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/when-ukraine-will-start-receiving-90-b
illion-1767625370.html
The European Union is currently working on the final adoption of the legal framework needed to provide Ukraine with the promised €90 billion loan over the next two years. Kyiv may receive the first tranche in the second quarter of 2026, according to a statement by European Commission spokesperson Maciej Berestecki during a briefing on January 5.
According to Berestecki, the European Commission’s proposal to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan under the mechanism of "enhanced cooperation" is currently before the Council of the European Union. It still needs to be approved there, but blocking it will not be possible, as only a qualified majority is required.
In addition, approval of the decision on enhanced cooperation requires the consent of the European Parliament. It is planned that both of these steps will be completed "within the next few weeks."
The European Commission is also currently drafting a proposal for a regulation that will set out the terms of the loan for Ukraine. It is expected to be adopted as early as January, along with proposals to amend the EU’s multiannual budget through 2027, which are necessary to provide the loan.
"We are, of course, aware of the urgency of the financing needs of Ukraine. We are planning to issue a first disbursement to Ukraine, the latest in the second quarter of 2026," Berestecki noted.
In December, during a summit in Brussels, EU member state leaders agreed to allocate €90 billion in support for Ukraine in 2026–2027. This involves a concessional loan that was considered a fallback option in case the mechanism for using frozen Russian assets is not implemented.
According to Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko, these funds are effectively interest-free and conditionally non-repayable for Kyiv: repayment would only be possible after Russia compensates Ukraine for the damages caused by its full-scale war.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Analysis: Why effective use of manpower will define who is winning the war in Ukraine in 2026
Manpower determines whether Ukraine loses the war
By Francis Farrell | January 6, 2026 4:53 pm
https://kyivindependent.com/analysis-effective-use-of-manpower-will-de
fine-whether-ukraine-loses-the-war-in-2026/
Over 2025, the regiment has gained attention as one of the military's top "firefighter" units, responding rapidly across the front line to quickly localize and liquidate Russian breakthroughs.
But with that attention has also come notoriety for its reckless use of mobilized soldiers in costly assault operations, leading to consistently high losses, while standard mechanized brigades are starved of reinforcements.
. . .
In areas well covered by crack Ukrainian drone teams, and with a well-manned, competent brigade holding the sector, Russia remains unable to achieve anything close to a true operational breakthrough.
If this could remain the case across the entire front line going forward, Kyiv would be well placed to resist outside pressure to accept a capitulatory peace deal for years to come, as Russian costs incurred for each kilometre, treeline, and village would simply be too high to sustain.
In some front-line hotpots, this continues to be the norm, especially in areas where the defense is led by top brigades and drone units under the umbrella of a respected corps command.
But elsewhere, the trend over 2025 has been in the other direction, in worrying signs for the future direction of the war.
The strain on the army is being felt in the form of larger and larger weak points opening along the front line, while sectors that for years had been locked down with a stable defense are now becoming the sites of fresh Russian advances.
This is most evident on the southern front line, near the town of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which was overrun by Russian forces over the Christmas period.
Here, despite the area’s strategic importance, chaotic Ukrainian withdrawals over the past month put the entire defense of Zaporizhzhia Oblast in jeopardy, and the defense of Huliaipole was still being led by the undermanned, poorly equipped, and poorly commanded 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade.
In late December, the unit made headlines for all the wrong reasons after one of its battalion-level command posts was captured by Russian forces, hastily abandoned with computers, maps, and other sensitive communications equipment still intact.
Around the same time, the city of Siversk, which had served as a key bastion for Ukraine’s defense of northern Donetsk Oblast for years, was taken by Russian forces in the space of weeks.
The brigades defending this area were battle-hardened and combat-effective.
But after the ranks of their infantry were degraded for too long without proper replenishment, and as their drone teams were increasingly targeted by Russian fire, these veteran units simply could not hold the line in the way they once did.
Meanwhile, along the state border in Sumy Oblast, Russia's entry into the village of Hrabovske — in an area that until now had not seen any movement but was also defended by a thinly-spread Territorial Defense unit — exposed the growing threat of new front lines being opened, creating further strategic dilemmas for Kyiv.
Much more at https://kyivindependent.com/analysis-effective-use-of-manpower-will-de
fine-whether-ukraine-loses-the-war-in-2026/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Soon, Putin will have failed to do to Ukraine what Stalin did to the Nazis
By Jens Asbjørn Bøgen | Jan 6, 2026
https://www.dagens.com/news/soon-putin-will-have-failed-to-do-to-ukrai
ne-what-stalin-did-to-the-nazis
3 years, 10 months, one week, and three days. Or 1412 days.
That is how long the war in Ukraine has been raging, if we start the count from the 2022 invasion and not the annexation of Crimea.
Now compare those numbers to this: 3 years, 10 months, and two weeks. Or 1418 days,
That is the time it took the Soviet Union to defeat Hitler's Nazi Germany, when looking at the timeline made by the Holocaust Encyclopedia.
This means that by next week, Putin will have fought longer in Ukraine than the time it took Stalin to defeat Hitler in World War II.
Humiliating gains comparison
In an analysis by the Kyiv Post, the numbers become even more embarrassing for Putin.
According to the analysis, the Soviets conquered 1.1 million square kilometers (445,999 square miles) in 1944, and that was not even the Red Army's most successful year.
In comparison, Russia is estimated to have captured approximately 28,500 square kilometers (11,004 square miles) since the initial push into Ukraine was halted in 2022.
New push for peace
According to Euronews, the coalition of willing is meeting this week to try and re-spark the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but there is little hope that it will actually bring anything substantial to the table, as the Kremlin continues to stand firm on its demands.
Additionally, both Putin and the Kremlin have repeatedly declared that Russia can, and will, win in Ukraine, with Putin stating on Nov. 27. 2025, “if Ukrainian troops leave the territories, they occupy (referring to the parts of Eastern Ukraine still not under Russian control), then we will stop fighting. If they don’t, we will achieve our aims militarily.”
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Syrskyi: Ukraine’s drones now destroy Russian troops faster than Putin can replace them
December marks turning point as losses match monthly recruitment.
By Benjamin Murdoch | Jan 6, 2026
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/06/december-first-month-russian-lo
sses-matched-recruitment/
December 2025 was the first month in which Russian battlefield losses roughly matched the number of troops Moscow was able to recruit in the same period, according to a statement by Ukraine’s armed forces commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Syrskyi said the results were linked to the expanded use of unmanned systems by Ukraine’s forces. Over the past year, drone operations have become a central part of combat activity across the front.
33,000 neutralized in December
More than 33,000 Russian soldiers were neutralised during the month, Syrskyi said. The figure includes only cases confirmed by video footage, while actual losses are likely higher.
In December, units operating unmanned aerial systems reportedly carried out about 339,000 missions, while ground-based robotic systems completed nearly 2,100 tasks. Overall, the number of targets hit or destroyed by drones increased by 31%, and the number of Russian personnel hit rose by more than a quarter, he said.
According to Syrskyi, Ukraine significantly expanded its drone capabilities in 2025 and plans further growth in 2026, including the formation of specialised units.
The expansion builds on the rapid growth of the Unmanned Systems Forces, which Ukraine established in June 2025 as the world's first dedicated military drone branch. Despite comprising just 2.2% of Ukraine's total military personnel, the unit has emerged as one of the most effective forces on the battlefield.
Moscow scaling its own drone force
He also said Russia is building up its own unmanned systems forces. Based on Ukrainian military intelligence, Syrskyi said Moscow has created separate drone troops numbering about 80,000 personnel, with plans to expand them to 165,500 in 2026 and nearly 210,000 by 2030.
Syrskyi said Russia has exceeded its annual state order for long-range drone production and is now producing more than 400 such drones per day.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Russia parked the tanks in 2025—and gained 30% more ground. Will it work in 2026?
Infantry slipped past drones in cities. Open fields are different.
By David Axe | Jan 6, 2026
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/06/russian-demechanization/
• In 2025, the Russians mostly stopped using armored vehicles
• It's not that they lack vehicles: they've pulled many thousands from long-term storage
• No, the Russians have de-mechanized because infantry tactics work better
• The infantry can slip past drones that easily spot approaching vehicles
• But Russian infantry casualties are mounting as they bear the brunt of the fighting
In 2025, the Russian armed forces in Ukraine traded vehicles for infantry. What was once among the world's leading mechanized armies with tens of thousands of armored vehicles of all types instead became an army that mostly marched into battle on foot.
It was a costly new doctrine for the Russians: potentially around 100,000 Russian troops died—probably more than in any of the three previous years.
But it worked. The Russians advanced, and at a faster pace than before.
Will the new doctrine work again this year? There are reasons to be skeptical. Namely, the terrain Russia will fight on in 2026 is much different than the terrain it fought on in 2025 —and it may favor Ukraine.
When did Russia park its vehicles?
Looking back 12 months, the open-source analysts at Warspotting identified the moment the Russians parked their vehicles. "Something changed starting late April/early May," the group explained.
In those few weeks, daily Russian vehicle losses dropped by half to fewer than eight per day. The decline coincided with the culmination of Russia's successful counteroffensive that ejected Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast in western Russia following a nine-month battle.
Eight vehicle losses a day for seven months through the end of 2025 marks the lowest sustained daily vehicle losses for the Russian military in 36 months. In 2024, the Russians lost 16 vehicles a day, on average. In 2023, they lost 10. In 2022, they lost a staggering 26 a day owing to their failed mechanized offensive toward Kyiv and Ukraine's own successful counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine later that year.
Russian vehicle losses per day 2022-2025 chart showing dramatic decline in 2025
Warspotting art
Vehicle losses vs. ground gains
Unthinkable prior to Russia's wider war on Ukraine beginning in February 2022, the de-mechanization of the Russian armed forces is now complete. Large groups of armored vehicles make only infrequent appearances along the 1,100-km front line—and, when they do appear, usually get blasted to pieces by Ukrainian mines, drones, and artillery.
It's not that the Russians don't have more vehicles. To be sure, losses have been extreme. In total, since February 2022, Russia has written off no fewer than 23,000 vehicles and other heavy equipment that the analysts at the Oryx collective have visually identified.
However, through a combination of new production and the reactivation of old vehicles from rapidly contracting Cold War stocks, Russia has made up for its equipment losses.
Russia's armored vehicle losses versus storage withdrawals chart
How Russia offset its armored losses in Ukraine. Graph by Euromaidan Press
Yes, that means there's no huge stock of stored vehicles to replenish battlefield losses in some future war. For now, however, the Russians still have many thousands of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and armored tractors.
They're just not using them very often or in large numbers. And for a good reason. Vehicles are easy targets for mines, drones, and artillery.
T-72B3M tanks of Russia's 126th Coastal Brigade based in occupied Crimea outfitted with special cage armor intended to protect from Javelin anti-tank missiles supplied to Ukraine by the United States. Photo from Russian social media
Small groups of infantry marching on foot or riding on mo
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Western outlets reported in late December 2025 and early January 2026 that a German military document states that Russia is intensifying its covert attacks on key German infrastructure, likely as possible preparation for a wider conflict.[11] The document reportedly also frames Russian cyber operations and influence campaigns as preparation for a military confrontation. The document further notes that Germany expects Russia to target German energy and defense infrastructure early, given Germany’s role as a NATO hub for moving and sustaining forces and forecasts that Russia will see Germany as a priority target for long range missile strikes, armed drones, and special forces after an open armed attack on NATO’s eastern flank. The document presents an assessment that Russia will develop these capabilities and “strategic options” by 2029 at the latest, even if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues unchanged.
ISW continues to assess that Russia would likely be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many Western estimates, particularly in the event of a future ceasefire in Ukraine that would free up Russian forces and allow Russia to rearm and reconstitute.[12] Russian covert attacks against German infrastructure are likely a line of effort within Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[13]
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive
-campaign-assessment-january-6-2026/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Why Russia weaponizes peace talks
The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) put it bluntly in a 2024 report: "The Kremlin sees democratic values as the greatest security threat and the West as an existential, systemic enemy. The logic of a zero-sum game excludes negotiations understood as a path to compromise, while violence is seen as a natural part of diplomacy."
This explains why sanctions that should rationally constrain Russian behavior often fail to do so. Moscow is willing to absorb enormous economic and human costs—including 35,000 casualties per month during its 2025 offensive operations—because suffering demonstrates strength, and strength commands the respect that Russia craves.
This isn't Ukraine-specific. The pattern is visible across post-Soviet conflicts.
The West's failure to grasp Russian negotiating psychology carries real consequences.
Ukraine cannot negotiate away Russia's imperial ambitions. No clever formula will satisfy a negotiating partner who views fear as the foundation of respect and suffering as proof of strength. The Kremlin does not want a deal; it wants victory. And as long as the West keeps searching for rational actors in a room full of ghosts from the Soviet past, Moscow will keep using the negotiating table as just another weapon in its arsenal.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/31/gromykos-ghost-at-abu-dhabi-the
-soviet-playbook-russia-still-uses-to-sabotage-peace/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Russia’s advance in Ukraine is the slowest of any major army in a century, analysis shows
Chasiv Yar offensive gains 10 km in two years – city still not captured.
By Benjamin Murdoch | 30/01/2026
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/30/russias-advance-in-ukraine-is-t
he-slowest-of-any-major-army-in-a-century/
Around Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia launched an offensive in February 2024, troops have advanced at roughly 15 metres per day without capturing the city.
Near Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces have moved forward at around 23 meters per day since late 2024.
Russia captured about 0.6% of Ukrainian territory in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025 while sustaining extremely heavy losses. Western intelligence assesses total Russian casualties since the full-scale invasion at more than one million.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Russia’s parliament erupts with threats, calls for strike on Ukraine with 'retaliation weapons'
Fri, January 30, 2026 - 23:00
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-s-parliament-erupts-with-threat
s-calls-1769794856.html
The Russians wished to express their strong desire to kill all Ukrainians without explicitly saying the words "Hydrogen Bomb" or "Atom Bomb".
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Vladimir Solovyov is thrilled with Trump's approach towards US allies
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Weekend Update #170: Russian Advances Are Slower Than The Battle Of The Somme
Phillips P. OBrien
Feb 01, 2026
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-170-russian-adva
nces
Russian Economic Strength: Having discussed high Russian casualties and low Russian gains, the paper then gets to one of the factors for such lack of success—the weakness of the Russian economy. In a nutshell, the Russian economy is simply not that strong and is struggling to support a winning war effort. It is burning through its cash reserves, its growth is stagnating, and it is not competitive in high tech. One chart shows after the original large spurt in economic growth brought about by the massive spending right after the full-scale invasion (entirely predictable) Russian growth has stalled badly (not predictable).
To have such anaemic growth in 2025 and 2026 (projected) shows just how the Russian economy is running on fumes.
You add these points up and it reinforces the point that the Russian war machine is underperforming and Ukraine can win. I know that might not be a shock to regular readers here, but it needs to be stressed and shared more widely. Hopefully this excellent report can help do that.
The "excellent report" is:
Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine
Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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She spent 15 years decoding Russian talks. Her verdict: the battlefield will decide.
A veteran diplomat on reading Russia’s negotiation theater
By Daniel Thomas
31/01/2026
Key takeaways: How Russia weaponizes peace talks
• The "no-name" trick: Russia sends delegations without decision-making authority to stall
• Timing manipulation: Short talks signal disinterest; marathon sessions exhaust opponents
• Attack during talks: Military strikes mid-negotiation apply psychological pressure
• High anchoring: Extreme opening demands force opponents to argue from Russia's frame
• Avoidance strategy: Key figures vanish when Russia wants to freeze progress
• Intangibles over interests: Moscow values pride and fear over cost-benefit calculations
• The Gromyko inheritance: Modern Russian diplomacy fuses Soviet-era endurance tactics with KGB psychological manipulation
Much more at https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/31/russia-doesnt-want-a-deal-it-wa
nts-fear-former-ukrainian-diplomat-on-why-abu-dhabi-wont-end-the-war/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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But 'Russia is not insane' / Medvedev dusts off nuclear threats again
February 2, 2026
https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-is-not-insane-medvedev-says-while-
threatening-nuclear-weapons-50580322.html
On Dec. 4, Medvedev threatened war against Europe if EU countries decide to use frozen Russian assets to finance reparations or support for Ukraine.
On Dec. 30, Medvedev launched a stream of insults against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, bizarrely linking his rhetoric to aliens.
What do you do when your next-door neighbor is insane and violent? Move away? Give them the title to your house? Voluntarily become their slave?
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Russia's Medvedev says victory will come soon in Ukraine war
By Reuters | February 1, 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-says-victory-wil
l-come-soon-ukraine-war-2026-02-01/
MOSCOW, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's powerful Security Council, said that Russia will "soon" win military victory in the Ukraine war but the key thing was to prevent any further conflict.
"Soon," Medvedev, who served as Russian president from 2008 to 2012, said, when asked by the WarGonzo Russian war blogger in an interview when Russia would win the war. "I would like this to happen as soon as possible."
"But it is equally important to think about what will happen next. After all, the goal of victory is to prevent new conflicts. This is absolutely obvious," Medvedev said in the interview with TASS, WarGonzo and Reuters.
Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Vladimir Soldatkin
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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