End of the world Peter Zeihan
POSTED BY: THG
UPDATED: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 23:52
VIEWED: 13043
PAGE 2 of 30
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It took you a long time to write that reply.
Be gone with you now.
You think that because you're a dummy. It took but a brief moment to write, once I decided to point out again what a moron you are. And your comeback here is priceless. Completely proves my point.
And yes, I'm gone.
T
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The non- Western world doesn't even exist, as far as Zeihan's concerned.
Anyone who has that significant blind spot can't possibly be accurate. I believe that was my very first reaction to one of his videos, and apparently it's still true.
That, and his "facts" have turned out to be garbage so far.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It took you a long time to write that reply.
Be gone with you now.
You think that because you're a dummy. It took but a brief moment to write, once I decided to point out again what a moron you are. And your comeback here is priceless. Completely proves my point.
And yes, I'm gone.
T
I KNOW that because 99% of the stuff you write is pure gobbledy gook and that last post actually looked like somebody older than a 2nd grader wrote it.
You're borderline retarded and it's why you've gone through life struggling to find anybody who could understand you.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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So, moving past the point about Zeihan being an idiot and whether he's right in the specifics, I also think OUR world as WE (USA, UK, EU) know it will end. There will still be global trade ... China will want to trade with Africa, South America, Russia etc, and Russia probably wouldn't notice if the west ("us", "we") dropped off the face of the globe bc they're an autarky.
But "they" will probably stop dealing with us bc, frankly, we aren't agreement capable and our dollar will be worth a lot less. And until we stop trying to be Masters of the Universe we'll be in semi- quarantine.
Which in the end will be a good thing bc we'll have to learn to "do for ourselves" again instead of expecting everybody else to "do" for us. Transition is going to be mighty rocky, tho.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Why SECOND'S posts are brainless: "I clocked how much time: no more than 10 minutes per day. With cut-and-paste (Ctrl C and Ctrl V) and AI, none of this takes much time."
Or, any verification or thought.
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Personally, I just take anybody who claims that this is the end of the world (as we know it, or otherwise) with a grain of salt.
How many times since Y2K have we been told the world was about to end now? How many times before that?
Whatever...
We've got real problems to face. We don't need to be worrying about stuff that we have zero control over even if we believed it was true. Spending all your time pondering existential shit like this just clogs up your neurons with irrational fears that cripple you from doing anything that's meaningful.
What's our government doing about any of this would be the real question. If we are truly at a point internationally where life as we have known it is now ending, why aren't they doing anything about it?
They spend all day, every day doing things they're not charged with, spending reckless amounts of money in ways that would never be approved if the people got a vote on them, and doing whatever they can to ensure they have more control over everything. Yet this right here is an example of what the American Federal Government was Constitutionally charged with taking care of and they can't even be bothered with it. Not dissimilar to how they can't be bothered with securing our own borders.
They get away with this because everybody's minds are clogged up with an irreparable amount of crap from staring at shiny rectangles all day long. Be always afraid, because through endless fear comes unwavering obedience.
--------------------------------------------------
Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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Well, yes and no.
What I think will happen (again IMHO) in the not too distant future is an outgrowth of what government (and the elites that run it) are doing today:
Our propensity for making enemies and failed states. We could do it as long as nobody stood up to us. Like the bully on the playground who terrorizes everyone until a few other kids stand up to him and show everyone else there is an alternative.
It was bad enough that we launched a large scale proxy war against Russia. Biden* is now apparently antagonizing China as well.
Putting a timeline on all of this, the Kremlin knew, in 2014, that it would eventually have to fight NATO militarily. Russia appointed Shoigu at that time and designated 3-4% (IIRC) of its budget to the military, up from 2%. They also developed a non -SWIFT interbank payment system, tossed American software (Microsoft) out of governemnt offices, semi-nationlaized the oil and gas industry and started to bring western- linked oligarchs to heel, and in 2012 restricted foreign NGOs. They also supported Syria and their own military bases in Crimea and Syria, engaged in a proxy war in the Donbas, and forged closer relationships with China and Iran.
So, they were preparing their military, financial system, commodities base, trade relations, and information space for an eventual split from the west. (Our sanctions caused them to complete the effort - sucessfully). Just as we were diddling Russia along to give ourselevs time to arm Ukraine, Russia was playing along to give themselves time to become independent.
** I go thru this to try and assess where China is.
China is like a huge cargo ship. It takes a long LONG time to turn around.
Xi Jinping became Party Secretary in 2012 and President in 2013. One of his first acts was to visit Putin in Russia. (Xi's interesting history. He looks young but he's a bitbolder than me. https://apnews.com/article/congress-xi-jinping-beijing-china-governmen
t-and-politics-36f8476c2f604282c08178d661111686) Over time, he overcame internal factions and was put in direct charge of everything from foreign policy to internal security.
So Xi, I think, is committed to preparing to split ftom the west.
BUT there is a large contingent of wealthy that are still tied to the west and still expect to make a lot of $$$ from those ties. And unlike the Kremlin, Xi doesn't have sufficient control over them.
Also, while China's military is huge (and its parades impressive, with everyone being exactly the same height and all...) it's not "blooded". Russia's military has been engaged in various conflicts defending against USA- backed Islamic terrorists in Chechnya and Syria and neo-Nazi ethnic cleansing in the Donbas, and fighting a brief defensive war against Georgia in S Ossetia.
China had no such experience. Watching the Russian effort in Syria where they got to test weapons and tactics and training (they trained a whole new Syrian Army division) I've often thought that China should send some of its commanders and troops there to form at least a small cadre of trained military.
China also began redirecting its foreign trade, initially with something called "string of pearls" (a series of ports on the Indian Ocean) which became the grander Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
But judging by what is happening in China with its debt bubble, its foreign trade
and its Treasury holdings (still over $1 trillion)
I think China can huff and puff about western aggression in Taiwan but thry sre still linked to us as much as we are to them.
So China will break from us only as much as we break from them with arms rp Taiwan and tariffs and sanctions. Because judging from their trade partners and foreign reserves, while China's trade with Russia and Africa is just coming up to normal internationsl levels, i
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
The non- Western world doesn't even exist, as far as Zeihan's concerned.
Anyone who has that significant blind spot can't possibly be accurate. I believe that was my very first reaction to one of his videos, and apparently it's still true.
That, and his "facts" have turned out to be garbage so far.
What non-western countries are you talking about? He predicts their collapse, and he does it in detail. He uses facts to do so. If you've watched the different videos I've posted, you'd have seen all this. Pick a non-western country and I'll post a video explaining their coming demise. Don't like Zeihan, I'll post another globalists video.
What facts are garbage? You have no facts to dispute Zeihan or you'd post more than gibberish. Real numbers comrade, not Chinese or Russian self declared numbers.
T
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, yes and no.
What I think will happen (again IMHO) in the not too distant future is an outgrowth of what government (and the elites that run it) are doing today:
Our propensity for making enemies and failed states. We could do it as long as nobody stood up to us. Like the bully on the playground who terrorizes everyone until a few other kids stand up to him and show everyone else there is an alternative.
It was bad enough that we launched a large scale proxy war against Russia. Biden* is now apparently antagonizing China as well.
Putting a timeline on all of this, the Kremlin knew, in 2014, that it would eventually have to fight NATO militarily. Russia appointed Shoigu at that time and designated 3-4% (IIRC) of its budget to the military, up from 2%. They also developed a non -SWIFT interbank payment system, tossed American software (Microsoft) out of governemnt offices, semi-nationlaized the oil and gas industry and started to bring western- linked oligarchs to heel, and in 2012 restricted foreign NGOs. They also supported Syria and their own military bases in Crimea and Syria, engaged in a proxy war in the Donbas, and forged closer relationships with China and Iran.
So, they were preparing their military, financial system, commodities base, trade relations, and information space for an eventual split from the west. (Our sanctions caused them to complete the effort - sucessfully). Just as we were diddling Russia along to give ourselevs time to arm Ukraine, Russia was playing along to give themselves time to become independent.
Russia can't take out Ukraine comrade so how are they going to take on NATO as well. There are 32 NATO member countries. The United States being one of those countries. Do you realize how stupid your logic is?
You say Russia was giving itself time to become independent. What was really happening was the west was completely pulling out of Russia. As were, Russia's own educated population. Doctors, engeiners, tech, all leaving or have already left. Russia is just trying to survive.
Shoigu just lost his job so I guess your assessment of how well he was doing is flawed.
Shoigu Reshuffle Shows Putin 'Desperation' to Sustain Ukraine War, State Department Says
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-05-13/shoigu-reshuffle
-shows-putin-desperation-to-sustain-ukraine-war-state-department-says
T
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
China's Treasury holdings (still over $1 trillion)
I think China can huff and puff about western aggression in Taiwan but thry sre still linked to us as much as we are to them.
So China will break from us only as much as we break from them with arms rp Taiwan and tariffs and sanctions. Because judging from their trade partners and foreign reserves, while China's trade with Russia and Africa is just coming up to normal internationsl levels, it has yet to break into the top 4.
America's GDP in 2023 is estimated to be 27.36 trillion. Be careful believing Chinas' numbers. Chinese Local financing bonds, a thirteen trillion-dollar market, it's how all the local markets fund themselves mostly through realistate, is in default. 80% is in default.
The peoples bank of China, the Chinese Fed that regulates their banking system, issued an edict. The Chinese government said they should just say those bonds are current. Thats a 13 trillion-dollar coverup.
tick tock
For a long time, no one minded. When economic or social threats reared their heads, like global financial crises in 1997 and 2007, Chinese authorities poured money into industry and the real estate sector to pacify the people. The investment-driven growth felt good, but it was much more than the country could digest and left China’s landscape scarred with empty cities and industrial parks, unfinished bridges to nowhere, abandoned highways and amusement parks, and airports with few flights.
To raise money for the government investment binge, Beijing allowed local authorities to collateralize land — all of which is ultimately owned or controlled by the state — and borrow money against it. This was like a drug: Local governments borrowed like crazy, but with no real plan for paying the money back. Now many are so deep in debt that they have been forced to cut basic services like heating, health care for senior citizens and bus routes. Teachers aren’t being paid on time, and salaries for civil servants have been lowered in recent years. Millions of people all over China are paying mortgages on apartments that may never be finished. Start-ups are folding, and few people, it seems, can find jobs.
When monthly government data revealed last year that 21 percent of Chinese youth in urban areas were unemployed, authorities stopped publishing the figures. It resumed early this year, but with a new methodology for defining unemployment. Presto! The number dropped to 15 percent.
But the era when China was able to take over whole industries without foreign pushback is over. Many countries are now taking steps to protect their markets from Chinese-made goods. Under U.S. pressure, Mexico’s government last month reportedly decided it would not award subsidies to Chinese electric vehicle makers seeking to manufacture in Mexico for export to the U.S. market; the European Union is considering action to prevent Chinese electric vehicles from swamping its market; and the Biden administration has moved to encourage semiconductor manufacturing in the United States and limit Chinese access to chip technologies, and has promised more actions to thwart China.
China won’t be able to innovate its way out of this. Its economic model still largely focuses on cheaply replicating existing technologies, not on the long-term research that results in industry-leading commercial breakthroughs. All that leaves is manufacturing in volume.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/11/opinion/china-economy-dead-end.html
T
Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing?
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Sounds like NYT and I agree
Quote:
Here's what I think China is doing wrong:
Instead of working on developing independently, the Chinese government took the easy and quick way out. They duplicated the Japan model of development: count on foreign investment and foreign markets and export your labor. Walmart suppliers, Apple, Nike, CocaCola, and a whole host of formerly western- based industries relocated right quick. For a while, whole factories were being dismantled and shipped to China! But while it gave quick results, it distorted Chinese production and geared it to western markets. China is STILL taking the easy way out. Why else do you think they were doing Covid research in Wuhan?
And if the foreign markets dry up, as they did in 2008 and are doing again now, yiur economy will nosedive as well.
China still believes, apparently, that having a grossly and endlessly positive trade balance is a good thing. It's not. If having an endlessly negative trade balance is endlessly borrowing money, then having an endless positive trade balance is endlessly lending money. It's all well and good to be sitting on piles of dollars and euros, as long as the dollars and euros retain their value. But it makes them hostage to American and European fiscal policy and affects China's foreign policy. Why else do you think they keep whinging about win- win, and peace and prosperity?
China has made a clusterfuck of its lending policies, and blew up debt loads beyond all reason, only to have that money plunked into speculation.
China also has made a clusterfuck of its revenue sharing. The central government collects taxes. It does not share revenue and provincial governments can't collect taxes. So they float bonds. Lots and lots of bonds! For lots and lots of pointless infrastructure! Because like any good bureaucracy, they want to see their budgets grow!
And like revenue sharing, China has made a clusterfuck of social benefits, which are based on provincial registration and not national. It ties people to their province.
China's emphasis on The Next Big Thing. They jump in with both feet, withiut being able to develop, test, and modify if necessary.
And finally, China's social policy. With its emphasis on standard of living, it leaves China with nothing to fall back on in adversity.
I would like to add, demonstrating China's piggybacking on USA research, that Russia would NEVER allow USA bioweapon lab research on its own soil (i.e. Covid). And look where it got THEM. And, ultimately, everyone.
China's development is at a "running scared" pace. I've read they are trying to avoid another Tiananmen Square. They're doing everything at breakneck speed, but -like a lot of their showcase projects - not very well. They need to slow down and make sure their development is done well and makes sense from a demand standpoint.
I still think that Xi wants to break from co-deoendence with the west. But China's trade with Africa, which currently stands at $250-300b, would need to triple to rival it's trade with the USA at $1T, and at its previous rate of increase that would take 49 years.
https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/27880.jpeg
https://www.statista.com/chart/27880/trade-between-china-and-africa/
China's trade with Russia, while important, only totals about $100b, between exports and imports
https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-graphic-truth-china-russia-trade-ties
That would have to multiply by a factor of 10 to rival its trade with the USA.
So even tho China is casting about - desperately, some might say- for non western trade partners, it would take at least 15 more years to rearrange its production and trade.
Xi, given his age, doesn't have that much time! And unlike Putin, he doesn't appear to be arranging for a successor.
So unless the west literally pushed China away thru tariffs, sanctions, and saber- rattling and forces China to b
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