Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, August 2, 2024 09:17
VIEWED: 13031
PAGE 10 of 25
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Originally posted by second:Quote:The $159 million was to use computers to make the actors look young in the early parts of their story.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
But the budgets are just out of control. I had no idea The Irishman cost $159 Million to make until you made that post. WTF for?
Again... I have little doubt that Killers is objectively a much better movie than FNAF is. But the blatant favoritism and how this entire industry is reported on is just disgusting.
mmmmmm... maybe? Part of it. That's a huge bill. And after Killers comes out at practically the same cost after you factor in the huge inflation in the last 4 years and puts nothing on screen that makes people say "I know where that $200 Million went", I'm not really buying that.
Good on Scorsese for calling Marvel movies exactly what they are, but on the other hand, none of his movies have any business spending Disney/Marvel budgets either.
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This is kind of important to explain why so many movies crash and burn:
What screenwriter is famous for saying "nobody knows anything"? William Goldman
The title comes from a William Goldman quote from his book "Adventures in the Screen Trade", where he says that "the single most important fact, perhaps, of the entire movie industry" is that 'nobody knows anything'.
Yeah. Can't argue that logic. It's what's paralyzed Hollywood into putting out repeat trash for so long. And that goes back way further than when Woke became a thing.
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Everybody reviewing movies is either guessing what the audience wants (and writing reviews to match their guesses at how an audience will react) or they are truthfully telling you what they like and dislike about a movie.
I believe the 2nd part of that statement is true, but I don't believe the first is. You're discounting the power of Access Media. These people are paid to give good reviews and they're shut out of future review opportunities if they don't give good reviews, just like in the video game industry. They're also paid to call people names who don't want to go see the trash that they regularly churn out too.
There has not been very much at all put in theaters in recent years that the audience wants. And if you look at the average Critic vs. Audience scores long enough, that becomes very apparent.
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‘Killers Of The Flower Moon’ Is Sadly Another 2023 Big-Budget Flop
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2023/10/30/killers-of-the-flow
er-moon-is-sadly-another-2023-big-budget-flop/?sh=7cc3db5919ee
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Even if the film manages miraculous holds every week and weekend from now on, at percentages on par with Oppenheimer’s historic and record-shattering performance for a biopic, Killers of the Flower Moon would still be on course for a roughly $200 million final cume at best.
Seriously. Stop simping for this film. You're just shooting your credibility to shit.
It lost 60% on the 2nd weekend, and it's lost more than 50% on average so far this week.
It just made $1.2 Million on Cheap Seat Tuesday when FNAF made $5 Million, and that's coming off a 2nd weekend where it only eeked out $9 Million Domestic while adding only $8 Million international for the entire previous week. It has zero overlapping movies as competition right now with 5 of the daily top 10 being horror flicks, 2 of them being kids movies, one being a sci-fi movie and the last one being an Angel Studios flick that' isn't going to gross 1/10th of what Sound of Freedom did.
This movie is dead. Though you correctly label it a flop even if it makes $200 Million, but it will never make $200 Million. Absolute best case scenario it makes $150 Million worldwide, and I suspect that after next weekend's numbers clear that $150 Million will be viewed as an impossibility.
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I just realized right now that I neglected to add Saw X to the list. I thought there was another horror movie making the top of the charts, but for whatever reason I forgot to add this one. I guess I should make a list of the top movies that come out in between updates if they're not going to be weekly anymore.
That being said, I've got to update the Notable Happenings list that I posted 2 days ago to account for it...
Notable happenings since last update:
1. FNAF is in 13th place after only 3 days in the box office for total WW Gross vs. Production Budget, and 1st place for Opening Weekend WW Gross vs. Production Budget.
2. Killers of the Flower Moon is in last place (62st) for total WW Gross vs. Production Budget after two weekends, and ranked 54th place for Opening Weekend WW Gross vs. Production Budget.
3. Killers of the Flower Moon is single-handedly responsible for dropping Paramount Pictures from 7th place in the studio rankings all the way down to 13th (last) place. Only Disney now is doing worse than Paramount when you add back the $170 Million Production Budget wasted on Peter Pan & Wendy.
4. Equalizer 3 is going to wrap up its run safely in the black with at least 265% of its Production Budget grossed.
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5. After next weekend, FNAF will land somwhere in the bottom half of the Top 10, pushing out Miles Morales 2. When this happens, not one single movie in the Top 10 will be a comic book property and 6 of the Top 10 will be Horror movies. 10 of the Top 20 are currently Horror movies already, and Miles Morales is the only Comic Book movie in the Top 20.
This one is now completely incorrect. Miles Morales 2 was already pushed out of the Top 10 because Saw X now sits at 9th place with 719% and The Nun II at 10th place with 690% and Miles Morales at 11th place with 683%.
6 of the Top 10 Movies of 2023 are now Horror Movies. 11 of the Top 20 are Horror Movies. Zero of the Top 10 are Comic Book Movies. Miles Morales 2 is the only Comic Book Movie in the Top 20.
6. The Creator, Expend4bles, A Haunting in Venice, Mission Impossible 7 and Killers of the Flower Moon are bona fide flops with no hope of ever reaching 200% of their Production Budgets.
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7. Hollywood, as a whole, has only made 268% of its combined Production Budget back on the Top 100 movies of 2023, barely eeking past the 2.5x RoT.
8. Even with 2.5x RoT considered, Universal has made a monsterous $1.45 BILLION, Warner Bros. has made $800 MILLION, Sony Pictures has made $525 MILLION. If it weren't for these three as well as Angel Studios, A24 and United Artists, Hollywood would be underwater as of November this year.
9. With only $1.2 BILLION in total profit out of the $14.5 BILLION Hollywood has made so far this year, it's very unlikely that Hollywood will actually post a loss for the year overall. But there are a few major flops still coming down the pike. Hollywood almost certainly won't even be able to claim that they've made over $1 BILLION in profits in 2023 despite having grossed well over $15 BILLION in box office receipts.
Time to start trimming those budgets.
These figures may have changed just slightly with the additional $13 Million budget and $93.5 Million worldwide take of Saw X, but it's pretty incidental.
I didn't add those figures to the studio totals for now. They will be included in the next major update which will probably be in late November or early December. For now, you can just add $13 Million to both Lionsgate and Hollywood Budget total numbers and $93.5 Million to both Lionsgate and Hollywood total numbers.
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Also, when adding just the Domestic take from Monday and Tuesday this week, FNAF rises from 531% to 590%. That doesn't bring it above 13th place yet since it needs to do more than Missing's 644% for another spot on the chart. It won't get that until probably Friday night. My guess it goes into the weekend around 620% to 625%.
After the Weekend Domestic comes in, it should be somewhere in the area of 780% (8th place). Add in the international take and it should end this weekend somewhere above 880% (still 8th place).
Barbie has 944% and Oppenheimer has 994% above that. I think it has a pretty good chance of displacing both of them once all the numbers come in on Monday the 13th and join the 1,000% Club. (Which would require it to make an additional $103 Million Worldwide in the next 11 days).
Way too far out to call anything beyond this though, especially with the fact that it was streaming on Day 1. I think it's still going to have a strong 2nd weekend because it grossed over $5 Million on Cheap Seat Tuesday, blowing every other movie in theaters out of the water, but I can't say how the longevity of this flick is. If it's not good beyond Weekend 2, my prediction that it beats Barbie and Oppenheimer by the end of Weekend 3 isn't going to happen. It likely beats them before it's out of theaters anyhow, but if it doesn't do it by the end of Weekend 3 that's probably as far as it makes it on the list.
My only guess if it does beat Barbie and Oppenheimer on Weekend 3 is that it should probably be able to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place by making over 1,164% ($292 Million total) of its production budget by the end of its run. Beyond that it would need to make 1,361% if it were to take 4th place from the Super Mario Bros. Movie, and that's probably too tall an order. It would require FNAF to gross $341 Million Worldwide to beat SMB. Because it's streaming, it's got a limited fanbase, Halloween is over and it's getting cold outside I don't think the chances of it making that much is in the cards.
It would be pretty cool seeing 3 of the Top 4 in 2023 being Horror Movies though. 
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FNAF expands 114 theaters this weekend for the most theaters of the week. Killers expands 154 theaters and is just 3 behind FNAF.
FNAF made a disappointing $2.7M on Wednesday. I figured it would keep up the $4M pace from Monday through the week.
It hits 600% with Wednesday's take, but probably won't hit that 620 to 625% I thought it would going into the weekend now. Probably only 612%.
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Way too early to get Bruce's predictions since Thursday's numbers haven't even come in yet, but BoxOfficePro doesn't have a good feeling about FNAF's 2nd weekend chances saying this...
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In the early days of its release, Five Nights has already proven its expected front-loaded nature. Free availability on Peacock’s streaming service won’t help matters on that end, either, as spooky season winds down following Halloween on Tuesday. The film’s 28 percent critics’ rating on Rotten Tomatoes likely won’t motivate adults or stragglers to take a chance on the film.
These were all points that I brought up earlier, but until I saw how poorly it did on Wednesday I didn't think that they would really factor in until after Weekend 2.
BoxOfficePro is predicting only $25 Million Domestic this weekend now, which would be a pretty terrible 69% drop, and I can't really argue with that, although I don't think the drop will be quite that severe.
If Thursday's numbers are low like Wednesday's were and BOP is correct in their prediction, FNAF will wrap up the weekend with around $119-$120 Million Domestic. So around 712% of its Production Budget Worldwide. If the International drop were to mirror that 69% weekend prediction, that would add only another $18 Million on top of the $58 Million it's already gotten. So after internationals were added to the total we'd be at around $196 Million worldwide, or around 784% of the Production Budget.
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Also, when adding just the Domestic take from Monday and Tuesday this week, FNAF rises from 531% to 590%. That doesn't bring it above 13th place yet since it needs to do more than Missing's 644% for another spot on the chart. It won't get that until probably Friday night. My guess it goes into the weekend around 620% to 625%.
After the Weekend Domestic comes in, it should be somewhere in the area of 780% (8th place). Add in the international take and it should end this weekend somewhere above 880% (still 8th place).
So if BoxOfficePro is right, that puts the real numbers just about 100% behind my prediction from yesterday before I saw the low Wednesday numbers.
784% is still enough to bring FNAF to 8th place, leapfrogging Evil Dead Rise, The Nun II and Saw X, but if a second weekend drop that hard is really how this plays out, especially on a weekend where there's basically zero competition, FNAF isn't ever really going to recover from it.
We'd have a situation where the first weekend take was 531%, and then the next 7 days only added 253%. The likely numbers through the 3rd week would be an additional 101%, then 40% through the 4th week, then 16% through the 5th week.
At that point, with 5 weeks and severely diminished returns, it would still be 3% below Oppenheimer for 7th place. It would get another 6% on Week 6 and take 7th place from Oppenheimer, but that would be as high as it ever made it on the charts, with no way of getting another 47% to displace Barbie.
But again, with it being available on streaming and the weather getting cold on top of the fact that this movie might not have very good wide-audience appeal, the normal average drops can't be applied with confidence.
Still though, even if it doesn't join the 1,000% club, 900% and a 6th or 7th place finish for the year is pretty damn good for a movie that critics went out of their way to hate on while being available to watch at home since day one. It would rank 4th among the 2023 Horror releases while grossing more than all of them did and only being so low because of it's $25 Million budget. Talk to Me had a budget of only $4.5 Million. M3GAN's budget was $12 Million and Insidious' budget was $16 Million.
Also, it would be the 2nd highest grossing Horror movie of 2023, only behind The Nun II's $265 Million current take... a feat that it should accomplish before the beginning of Weekend 3 if it doesn't succeed in that by Sunday.
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LOL... Wow....
FNAF just got clobbered on Friday. It didn't even gross $200k more than it did on Cheap Seat Tuesday, for a reported -86% drop on Friday 2. The actual drop was only -81.4% when you discount Thursday Preview numbers from Friday 1's numbers, but this is a death sentence for the movie. I don't recall EVER seeing a drop this steep from Weekend 1 to Weekend 2 on a movie since I started tracking them. (Even Blue Beetle only dropped -74%/-61%, and Shazam II dropped -80%/-71% on their second Fridays).
This changes predictions on anything I've stated up until now (other than the fact that I stated all of the variables in place that could have lead to a steep drop in performance). I always said I didn't think this one would have the longevity to catapult it to the top of the 2023 list, but I honestly didn't think we'd see the steep decline until after Weekend 2 after it performed so well on Monday and Tuesday. That happened quick.
At this point, I don't see how it isn't still going to end up cracking a spot in the Top 10, but 900% or more is an impossibility. The only question left is how high up the list it will make it.
With The Nun II really slowing down (with only $18k on Thursday, vs. $2.1 Million for FNAF), The Nun II shouldn't rise much above the current 690% it has in 10th place. 59% shouldn't be too difficult for FNAF to still achieve, even under these circumstances. Even with this massive drop in attendance, it increased 20% yesterday, and we've still got Saturday, Sunday and we'll find out what the International drop was on Monday or Tuesday. It's a coin flip if it hits the Top 10 by then, but even if interest falls off quite a bit more after this weekend it should be so close to 691% that it doesn't matter.
719% for Saw X shouldn't be too steep of a hill to climb, even though Saw X still made $162.5k on Thursday. I can't imagine interest is going to fall off so much that FNAF doesn't take 9th place by next weekend.
Evil Dead rise has 769%. Can FNAF beat that? Honestly, after seeing this huge negative turnaround in only a few days I can't really answer that. I don't even want to make a prediction on that one until the internationals come in on Monday or Tuesday.
In any event, 8th place on the list is the highest this one is going to go now. It would need 944% to beat Oppenheimer and 994% to beat Barbie, and there's no possible chance for it to even crack 900% now. I don't think it even sees 800%.
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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
‘Killers Of The Flower Moon’ Is Sadly Another 2023 Big-Budget Flop
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2023/10/30/killers-of-the-flow
er-moon-is-sadly-another-2023-big-budget-flop/?sh=7cc3db5919eeQuote:
Even if the film manages miraculous holds every week and weekend from now on, at percentages on par with Oppenheimer’s historic and record-shattering performance for a biopic, Killers of the Flower Moon would still be on course for a roughly $200 million final cume at best.
Seriously. Stop simping for this film. You're just shooting your credibility to shit.
It lost 60% on the 2nd weekend, and it's lost more than 50% on average so far this week.
It just made $1.2 Million on Cheap Seat Tuesday when FNAF made $5 Million, and that's coming off a 2nd weekend where it only eeked out $9 Million Domestic while adding only $8 Million international for the entire previous week. It has zero overlapping movies as competition right now with 5 of the daily top 10 being horror flicks, 2 of them being kids movies, one being a sci-fi movie and the last one being an Angel Studios flick that' isn't going to gross 1/10th of what Sound of Freedom did.
This movie is dead. Though you correctly label it a flop even if it makes $200 Million, but it will never make $200 Million. Absolute best case scenario it makes $150 Million worldwide, and I suspect that after next weekend's numbers clear that $150 Million will be viewed as an impossibility.
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I'm actually quite surprised at how much this has made internationally. The first weekend looked to almost mirror my prediction for Domestic to International share, but after a steep drop of -60% for the 2nd weekend in the US, the drop internationally either wasn't that large or it had opened a week late in numerous other territories to make up for it. Right now, it's $47 Million Domestic and $56 Million International (or 45.4% Domestic / 54.6% International). The international figures are actually better than that because there have been 5 days of Domestic numbers added that won't be added for the International numbers until Monday or Tuesday.
This is still going to be a collisal flop, but it has already pulled in $104 Million worldwide without taking this weeks Internationals into account.
I think it's pretty safe to say that it will beat Shazam II's $132 Million, so it's going to do better than I thought it would thanks to the international audience.
There's no way it's hitting $200 Million like that quoted article said it might, but it probably does somewhere around that $150 Million I stated in reply, give or take about $5 Million.
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Well, well, well...
I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.
Despite a -76% fall in the US, the International Box Office just virtually doubled this week to $103.5 Million and a worldwide total of $217 Million!
Last weekend the US take was $80 Million to the international take of $52.5 Million. Now the totals are $113.6 Million in the US and $103.5 Million Internationally.
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Also, when adding just the Domestic take from Monday and Tuesday this week, FNAF rises from 531% to 590%. That doesn't bring it above 13th place yet since it needs to do more than Missing's 644% for another spot on the chart. It won't get that until probably Friday night. My guess it goes into the weekend around 620% to 625%.
I lowered that prediction after Wednesdays numbers came in to 612% and was still way off. FNAF entered weekend 2 at only 588%. Apparently some of my math must have been fuzzy since obviously it wasn't at 590% after Tuesday. I don't know what happened there.
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After the Weekend Domestic comes in, it should be somewhere in the area of 780% (8th place). Add in the international take and it should end this weekend somewhere above 880% (still 8th place).
After the $19.4 Domestic Weekend came in, it was only at 664% and knowing how low it was going to be after Friday, I said the movie was mortally wounded and wouldn't have a chance of hitting 900%, with the possibility of not even hitting 800%.
But now, all of the sudden, with an additional $50,933,000 International we find ourselves at 868% of the Production Budget Worldwide, which still puts us at 8th place like I said FNAF would be after the weekend, but instead of just eeking that one out it's above Evil Dead Rise by 99%.
Oppenheimer is still in play. Perhaps even Barbie too. It all depends on the International mood for FNAF on Weekend 3, since I don't imagine it making more than $10 to $15 Million more by next Sunday here in the states. If it got $12 Million by then, without International Numbers, it would be at 916%, which is only 28% behind Oppenheimer.
It would only need another $8 Million International on top of that next weekend to match Oppenheimer, and at that point it would only be $12 Million behind Barbie.
I wonder why the International numbers are still so high? Perhaps Peacock is only streaming FNAF in the US now?
If that's the case, it's quite possible that FNAF overtakes Barbie by next weekend because of the international take. It only needs $32 Million to do that. And if it were to get $12 Million US in the next 7 days, and the $20 Million it would still need internationally would be a 60% drop from last weekend.
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Quote:Not a decision. Pirates did their thing to make the movie available for FREE:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well, well, well...
I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.
Five Nights at Freddy's 2023
Horror / Mystery / Thriller
Available in:
720p.WEB 1080p.WEB 1080p.WEB.x265 2160p.WEB.x265
WEB: same quality as BluRay
https://yts.mx/movies/five-nights-at-freddys-2023
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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