***** Sound of Freedom
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 23, 2024 03:13
VIEWED: 17421
PAGE 33 of 47
6ix, You have mentioned the ratio of Domestic Box office vs. International for several films.
Do you have thoughts on what the ratio will be for Sound of Freedom?
Define the details and parameters as you wish.
For guidance, pedophiles and groomers have incessantly railed that Domestic BO for this film WILL NOT translate to International Box Office.
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Quote:Your obsession with the ranking of SoF is finally clear.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It's actually 9th:
Quote:When SoF becomes #1, Trump will be President.
Tuesday's Numbers:
1. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
2. Sound of Freedom - 1,455% (+0%)
3. Talk to Me - 1,400% (+0)
4. Super Mario Bros - 1,360% [FINAL]
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% [FINAL]
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
6ix, You have mentioned the ratio of Domestic Box office vs. International for several films.
Yeah... I was actually keeping track of it for all the US films in the top 80+ to make my 4th list that guesstimated when the film broke even with the 2.0x RoT.
Even though I'm not doing that anymore with my new tables here, I just realized last night that Bruce already does this. Check out the last column on the international 2023 table here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cu
mulative/released-in-2023
Currently, SoF's Domestic share is 86.92%.
Quote:
Do you have thoughts on what the ratio will be for Sound of Freedom?
Define the details and parameters as you wish.
Well... I'm not quite sure how things are going to look Internationally when it's done. I still don't know what countries it will be releasing in that it hasn't already besides Brazil and Spain, and it appears it's getting new countries all the time.
Also, I didn't know that those 17 Latino countries it released in alongside of Mexico were all 2 weeks ago instead of only 1 week, so that would lower their future take from what I initially thought they would get.
I think the US Box Office is just about done, with it getting $45k on Monday and only $52k on Cheap Seat Tuesday. Likely less than a Million from the US going forward before it's pulled out of theaters. If it's lucky, it will get $185 Million in the US before it's gone, but I kind of doubt that.
I believe that the floor for this movie Worldwide is $230 Million now, with $250 Million possible though unlikely.
At $185 Million domestic rounding up and $230 Worldwide, that's 80.4% Domestic / 19.6% International.
If it manages $250 Million worldwide, that's 74% Domestic / 26% International.
Quote:
For guidance, pedophiles and groomers have incessantly railed that Domestic BO for this film WILL NOT translate to International Box Office.
I know man. You should see Reddit. Before the Latino numbers came in, the Democratic pedophiles were celebrating its lack of box office in South Africa, Australia/NZ and Europe and laughed at people who thought this movie would ever even break $200 Million.
I may alter my predictions on that $230 - $250 Million range after this weekends numbers come in. I don't know what kind of staying power it has in any of these countries since the information we've gotten has been so sporadic and I tend to just consider a 50% drop across the board week to week on movies until proven otherwise.
I made the mistake of giving a hard 55% drop to Blue Beetle this week and I'm being proven wrong there. It looks as though it's only dropping in the mid 30% range for the week, both here and in the same countries where SoF is doing strong except Mexico where it looks like it doesn't have nearly as strong of a hold as places like Brazil.
I think Brazil has potential to put up some huge numbers that I haven't taken into consideration yet too. If a piece of shit movie like Blue Beetle can do $7 Million in Brazil in 3 weeks when it only got $5.9 Million so far in Mexico, I'd imagine that Sound of Freedom might be in for another $10 to $15 Million in Brazil alone.
I mean, seriously... How has Blue Beetle made almost 11% of what it made in the US Box office in Brazil?
If SoF does 11% of the US Box Office in Brazil, that's another $20 Million right there and we get to $230 Million without a single dollar counted from any of the other countries it is currently playing and will be playing.
Who knows? If that comes to pass, SoF might make $275 Million worldwide. The split would be about 67% Domestic / 33% International if that happens.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Tuesday's Numbers:
1. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
2. Sound of Freedom - 1,455% (+0%)
3. Talk to Me - 1,400% (+0)
4. Super Mario Bros - 1,360% [FINAL]
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% [FINAL]
SoF needs 54% to beat M3GAN. (About $8 Million)
SoF is 55% above Talk To Me.
SoF is 95% above Super Mario Bros.
I wasn't able to do a daily update on Wednesday since there wasn't any new information. That hasn't changed today. No new Domestic numbers for SoF since Tuesday, and none for Talk To Me since Sunday.
SoF needs almost exactly $700k for another bump, and Talk To Me appears only to need $53k for the next bump.
There's zero chance SoF got that here in the states. Talk To Me got its bump on Monday for sure now.
Both are going to be relying almost solely on International numbers going forward.
And speaking of international, either BOM is wrong or Bruce is way behind. According to BOM, Talk To Me has already done $21,936,460.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10638522/?ref_=bo_se_r_1
Bruce only has $17,465,112 recorded internationally so far for Talk To Me.
So according to BOM, Talk To Me has already done $67,937,993 worldwide (not including Monday-Thursday Domestic), which would put it at 1,511% and in first place above M3GAN.
That's the bad news for SoF. The good news is that if you look at the weekly breakdowns for Talk To Me, the money coming in this late in its run is next to nothing. Countries such as France, Spain and Russia did middling double-digits last weekend. It's got a better hold in Mexico with $386k last weekend, but that was a 60% drop from the weekend before. It also has a better hold in the UK with $151k, but these numbers are far lower than the millions it was generating.
So because Bruce appears to be about $4.5 Million behind on them, expect some big bumps internationally still making their way to The-Numbers.com for Talk To Me, but know that they're mostly all old numbers. It probably does less than half a million in new numbers internationally this weekend according to what I'm seeing at BOM.
These aren't official since I don't make official updates until Bruce puts stuff on the-numbers, but this is likely where the top list is at right now.
*NOTE: I don't give Talk To Me an extra bump that I said it got on Monday because now with these new international numbers that BOM shows, it wouldn't have made the $500k + it needed for the next rounding bump. Also, SoF doesn't get a bump because there was no way any money it made on Wednesday/Thursday in the states helped it at all either.
In the case below, SoF still needs around $600k for a bump, and Talk To Me needs something really small like $40 or $50k for its next bump.
Thursday's (theoretical) Numbers:
1. Talk to Me - 1,511% (+111%)
2. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,455% (+0%)
4. Super Mario Bros - 1,360% [FINAL]
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% [FINAL]
SoF needs 57% to beat Talk To Me (About $9 Million)
SoF needs 54% to beat M3GAN. (About $8 Million)
SoF is 95% above Super Mario Bros.
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:Your obsession with the ranking of SoF is finally clear.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It's actually 9th:Quote:When SoF becomes #1, Trump will be President.
Tuesday's Numbers:
1. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
2. Sound of Freedom - 1,455% (+0%)
3. Talk to Me - 1,400% (+0)
4. Super Mario Bros - 1,360% [FINAL]
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% [FINAL]
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Nah. Trump will be President on January 20th, 2025.
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How you do anything is how you do everything.
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Thursday's Numbers:
1. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
2. Sound of Freedom - 1,455% (+0%)
3. Talk to Me - 1,422% (+22)
4. Super Mario Bros - 1,360% [FINAL]
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% [FINAL]
SoF needs 54% to beat M3GAN. (About $8 Million)
SoF is 33% above Talk To Me.
SoF is 95% above Super Mario Bros.
Talk To Me finally gets its Monday through Thursday Domestic updates, and it's less than I thought it would be. Cheap seat Tuesday was the high with $115,844 and Thursday was the low with $81,096. Tuesday was the only day it made 6 figures.
Still no Domestic updates since Tuesday for SoF, but it doesn't matter because it's $700k from a bump and it wouldn't even get that Domestic by EOD Sunday.
Talk To Me now needs almost exactly $500k for the next bump.
As I stated this morning, Bruce is behind BOM almost $4.5 Million on the International numbers. If those numbers happen to come in this weekend, that's about another $5 Million rounding up. Depending on how it does here this weekend as well as internationally, we could be rounding up probably as high as $6 Million. I don't think it will be higher than that though, since I doubt very much it is going to make another nearly $2 Million in total Domestic this weekend and International for the last week it would need beyond that to get to $7 Million with that $4.5 Million finally counted.
So that would leave Talk To Me at 1,533% to 1,556% after Bruce reconciles international numbers if he adds everything extra that Box Office Mojo has on file too.
In that case, Sound of Freedom would need another $13 Million to $16 Million to pull ahead again.
As I stated before, $230 Million is the floor for SoF worldwide now by the time it's out of the international box office, which is another $19 Million. And though it never really picked up any traction in Europe and Australia in the first place, it's still got gas in the tank in Latin America. And there's a good possibility it grosses another $10 to $20 Million in Brazil alone once it is released there.
My guess is that Talk To Me will pull ahead for a week or two this weekend but SoF will ultimately end up on top for 2023 since both Domestic and International numbers for that movie seem to be slowing down to a crawl now. I also predict that both of them are going to pull away pretty hard once all the international numbers are figured for and be the only two movies in 2023 that gross more than 1,600% of their Production Budgets. (Assuming the Taylor Swift "movie" that I'm probably going to disqualify anyhow if they try to claim some ridiculously low-ball production budget doesn't also hit 1,600%).
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No Friday projections for SoF or TTM.
SoF needs $700,072 for a bump.
TTM needs $496,600 for a bump.
Some (very small amount of) additional international money must have come in at the-numbers because Bruce is now $4,288,922 short worldwide of what BOM is showing, and they're both up-to-date on Domestic numbers through Thursday.
My guess is about $175k for SoF and $475k for TTM domestic this weekend.
That is assuming that either or both of them haven't been bumped from theaters, of course, since Bruce's weekly theater count article doesn't mention either of them. But with SoF still showing in 730 theaters and TTM still showing in 930 theaters on Thursday night, I find it hard to believe that they're both done in the US just yet.
Neither of them would get a bump this weekend from those Domestic figures alone.
If Bruce updates the TTM figures to match BOM's on Sunday/Monday, that would be $4,763,922 additional for TTM without considering any new International Box Office numbers from last week's update. That would be $68,767,322, or 5 percentage bumps, and would leave TTM $732,678 shy of the next bump.
SoF would get the $175k from the Domestic weekend, getting zero bumps and still being shy of $525,072 shy of a bump.
So this is where we'd be before new international numbers came in:
2. Talk to Me - 1,533% (+133)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,455% (+0%)
I would further give TTM at least the $732,678 it needed for the next bump from new international numbers for this weekend, but not enough to make the $1,732,678 it would need for 2 more bumps, putting it at 1,556%.
And here's some math I did to try to at least have a somewhat educated guestimate for SoF international numbers this weekend:
16 Latin America Countries on BOM 9/16
$1,787,330
$363,139
$841,028
$2,507,576
$798,494
$1,180,678
$175,420
$448,075
$350,729
$7,477,850
$126,017
$570,500
$112,239
$1,723,859
$217,320
$217,754
TOTAL: $18,898,008
Opening Weekend Columbia: $1,098,931 of $2,507,576 (44%)
Opening Weekend Mexico: $3,486,358 of $7,477,850 (47%)
We're going to call those total gross numbers Opening weekend plus 54% for the following 7 days.
So the Opening weekend of all 16 countries was probably somewhere in the area of $8,693,084, with the following 7 days grossing $10,204,924.
Assuming 40% drops week to week, there should be an additional $6,122,954 coming in for those 16 countries for the last 7 days once Bruce updates numbers. (It will be more if it maintains a 70% hold, but I'm just being safe here with the limited data available).
I don't even know how many Eurpoean, Middle East and Africa countries it's even still playing in since it didn't really do very well in those regions. I'm just going to add $250k to the intenrational figure for them and call it a day.
Ditto for Australia and New Zealand. I'm giving that an additional $200k.
With this guess, we add $6,572,954 to SoF's international total this weekend, which would be $216,922,882 total, or 6 bumps and $577,118 shy of the next bump. This would put SoF at 1,496% when Bruce updates the international numbers on Sunday/Monday.
Here's what my guess would look like, depending on a lot of X factors coming through, most importantly Bruce actually updating TTM's numbers to what BOM is currently showing....
Saturday/Sunday's (theoretical) Numbers (post-international update):
1. Talk to Me - 1,556% (+156%)
2. M3GAN - 1,508% [FINAL]
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,496% (+41%)
4. Super Mario Bros - 1,360% [FINAL]
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% [FINAL]
SoF needs 61% to beat Talk To Me (About $9 Million)
SoF needs 12% to beat M3GAN. (About $2 Million)
Things to keep in mind...
1. TTM has been in most international markets much longer than SoF and has really slowed to a crawl in most of them.
2. TTM has still yet to release in South Africa (9/15) or Japan (12/22). I don't know how how well either of these will play, but Japa
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BOM added Serbia today (Sat morn).
NZ subtracted 12.5K on Friday.
Still no figures for Belize or Dominican Republic, although reported to be #1 in both countries.
I also noticed Colombia dropped 20% from 1st to 2nd weekend.
I didn't even realize that SoF was banned from being played in theaters on U.S. Military Bases.
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Quote:I don't think so.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Here's my reply to your previous two posts. I turned my double-post on the last page into this, but it was right at the end of the page and you'd since posted twice. I wanted to make sure you see it:Quote:This, believe it or not, may have been the article that I saw way back when I put $14 Million as the budget.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
My *&#$%^@!*&;@! handheld device keeps deleting things,including the article I wanted to link.
Here's another one:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12307679/Its-peoples-movie-So
und-Freedom-producer-hails-success-14m-budget-film-moves-second-place-box-office-Mission-Impossible-having-grossed-85m.html
Producer states it is a $14M film. But, of course, how would HE know anything?
MI wasn't released until 12 Jul, and took days more to hit $85M.
You posted $14M on July 9.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BOM added Serbia today (Sat morn).
Nice.
Quote:
NZ subtracted 12.5K on Friday.
Buckle in. That's going to happen a lot from here on out without Domestic numbers coming in that are large enough to keep you from noticing it. The good news is it won't be $3-4 Million up and down like SMB, but the bad news is that TTM's ups and downs are going to be even less.
Quote:
Still no figures for Belize or Dominican Republic, although reported to be #1 in both countries.
Yeah. Those must be the two Latin American countries I mentioned still haven't shown up out of the "18".
Quote:
I also noticed Colombia dropped 20% from 1st to 2nd weekend.
That's weekend to weekend (which, oddly, BOM considers Thursday through Sunday), which means it grossed $523,619 Mon-Wed its first week. A 19.5% drop could mean better numbers than I predicted since I went the safe route and figured in a 40% drop week to week for all 18 Latin American countries.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3869803265/weekend/
In Mexico, it actually went up 10.1% from 1st weekend to 2nd weekend (only 3 day weekends for Mexico on BOM). But that would mean it only grossed $154,674 on its first Mon-Thurs, which doesn't make much sense at all.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl229344001/weekend/
I'm not sure how much we can rely on the accuracy of these types of numbers.
Quote:
I didn't even realize that SoF was banned from being played in theaters on U.S. Military Bases.
That makes sense. We've got trannies running things in the military in current year.
Quote:
I don't think so.
MI wasn't released until 12 Jul, and took days more to hit $85M.
You posted $14M on July 9.
Guess not then. It's hard to say. Most media on both sides of the aisle just copy and paste what other outfits say. That's why everybody gets everything so wrong these days since they're all in a big goddamned rush to be the first outfit to put something out before everybody else copies and pastes it.
I want to see an interview with the dude and have him saying flat out the budget was $14 Million. None of the articles I've seen (including that one and the 3 that I linked) even gave a direct quote from him that it was only $14 Million. They all said something like he said it was "around $14 Million".
But like I said before, I don't think it matters. I'm pretty sure that SoF is going to end up with well over 1,600% of the Production Budget in the end and take first place for the year. But if it actually WAS only $14 Million, I would like to know that because I'm striving to be as accurate as possible with my lists.
In related news, I've been hearing that the Taylor Swift tour documentary thing had a production budget of $10 to $20 Million. But I believe that this wouldn't put into account the stupid residuals in the future that they'd be paying out, having had to agree to the SAG interim contract to be able to release it. I'll be recording the results of that "movie" but it might remain separate from all the other movies since it is operating under different rules than everything else was.
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