Cinema

***** Sound of Freedom

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 23, 2024 03:13
VIEWED: 17421
PAGE 20 of 47

6IXSTRINGJACK

Friday, August 18, 2023 9:02 AM

Looks like I still won't be able to retire a lot of movies still stubbornly on the list. Super Mario Bros. is somehow still showing in 68 theaters this week despite only making a few thousand per day now. The Little Mermaid is hanging on with 40 theaters. Miles Morales 2 has 121 theaters.

It looks as though The Flash, Guardians 3 and the Transformers movie aren't making a comeback this week though, so it was probably legit that they were out of theaters last week.

Sound of Freedom drops to 2,100 theaters, while Haunted Mansion still has 2,180. Haunted Mansion is still outpacing SoF on a daily basis, but not by much. It shouldn't be long before it falls beneath SoF on a per-day basis. In any event, it will never make anywhere close to what SoF made Domestically, and with how little business it is doing overseas its chances of ever catching up to SoF would have been just about nil even if SoF wasn't going to start showing internationally. Just one more Disney flick with over 10 times the budget failing hard here.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, August 19, 2023 3:27 AM

Updating:

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.

let's see...
For the days when working folk are not working...

Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1
15Jul 10.22 2 $3,132 2
16Jul 9.563 2 $2,929 2
22Jul 7,434 4 $2,263 3
23Jul 6,684 3 $2,035 3
29Jul 4.813 4 $1,411 4
30Jul 4.233 4 $1,241 4
5 Aug 2.870 6 $ 0965 7
6 Aug 2.487 6 $ 0836 6
12Aug 1.965 8 $ 0701 9
13Aug 1.551 7 $ 0554 9

other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2
17Jul 4.954 2 $1,518 1
18Jul 5.449 2 $1,669 2
19Jul 4.722 2 $1,446 1
20Jul 3.702 1 $1,134 1
21Jul 5.706 3 $1,737 3
24Jul 3.168 3 $ 0965 3
25Jul 3.391 3 $1,032 3
26Jul 3.001 3 $ 0914 3
27Jul 2.568 3 $ 0782 3
28Jul 3.766 5 $1,104 5
31Jul 2.001 4 $ 0587 4
1 Aug 2.061 4 $ 0604 4
2 Aug 1.561 5 $ 0458 6
3 Aug 1.440 5 $ 0442 7
4 Aug 2.212 6 $ 0744 6
7 Aug 1.077 6 $ 0362 7
8 Aug 1.170 6 $ 0393 8
9 Aug 0.900 8 $ 0303 7
10Aug 0.822 7 $ 0276 9
11Aug 1.351 8 $ 0482 9
14Aug 0.590 8 $ 0211 9
15Aug 0.732 9 $ 0261 9
16Aug 0.562 7 $ 0201 8
17Aug

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
]I suspect Mansion won't have higher $ Per theater than SoF for Wednesday.
My suspicion failed. WokeSayGay Mansion dropped to $492 per theater, in it's 6th day of release. But SoF dropped more than I expected, to $458 per screen.
I do still feel confident that Mansion will fall below SoF for Sat and Sun.

Sof earned 11% of it's Production Budget. Barbie earned almost 13% from Domestic BO, likely 27% Worldwide.
SoF earned 150% of it's Budget in the past 7 days, Barbie did $157M Domestic in the last 7 days, which would be 157% of Budget, and likely 320% Worldwide.
Talk To Me figures finally posted for the past week, about 2 hours ago. So I updated.

Last week, I balked when Angel Studios projected that Sunday would make less than Friday - for the first time in their run. And I will have the same reaction if they do the same this weekend.
Still no SoF for last night.
--------------------
If trends continue, I expect SoF to gain another 50% this week (end 20 Aug), and another 30% the next week (end 27 Aug), making it about 1315%.
Using Oppy as a guide, 1/5 of the International Box Office comes from UK, Australia, Mexico. i expect $18M from these 3, which would make it about 1445% when these are tallied. Australia starts trickling in after 24 Aug, and UK/Mexico after 1 Sep.

I do understand that barbie has a Production Budget of $145M. However, my other table is done to show the numerical trends I had noticed, and I will continue that without changing the denominator, to demonstrate the trend.
If Barbie had continued the trend, I had seen that Barbie would overtake SoF in 2 weeks, and then 2 weeks later would fall below SoF again. That would be IF the summer weekdays continued past 20 Aug, and SoF had no Box office from International.

The weekend predictions had the Box Office falling by 50%, about $105M. But the projections indicate about $111M Box office, so that would be an increase. Bruce had mentioned that he was tinkering with his formulas for weekend predictions, but he thought that would affect Barbie more than others.

Bruce predicted less drop for Barbie than SoF, I thought that was incorrect.
Compared to predictions, the projections for Barbie are higher than those for SoF. I thought that fishy.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Saturday, August 19, 2023 5:37 AM

Thursday Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,250% (+0%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 832% (+3%)
6. Talk to Me - 867% (+67% for Monday/Thursday Domestic)

SoF needs 109% to beat SMB. (About $16 Million)
SoF needs 226% to beat M3GAN. (About $32 Million)
SoF is 383% above Talk to Me.
SoF is 418% above Barbie.

Numbers for every relevant movie except for Sound of Freedom are in now. I'm confident stating that SoF didn't go up any percentage points Thursday because it would have needed over $760k to do so and that just isn't happening now.

Quote:
Talk to Me still has no new numbers since Sunday. My guess is that from Monday to Thursday night it made enough to round up to $40 Million from $36 Million, which means an 89% gain going into the weekend with around a $400k deficit to the next million. If it falls shy of this though, it will have a surplus with only a 69% gain from Monday to Thursday.

Talk to Me only got the 69% gain with the Monday through Thursday numbers putting it at $39,378,684, so it got rounded down. It will get a larger boost over the weekend because of this.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, August 20, 2023 1:39 AM

Friday Numbers:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,357% (-1%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,257% (+7%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 836% (+4%)
6. Talk to Me - 889% (+22%)

SoF needs 101% to beat SMB. (About $14 Million)
SoF needs 219% to beat M3GAN. (About $31 Million)
SoF is 368% above Talk to Me.
SoF is 421% above Barbie.

Super Mario Bros. bounces back down 1% again. What else is new?

SoF goes up 7%, but only with $686k projected on a Friday and a 49% drop from last week. A repeat of that tonight will get it up another percentage boost, but it's not likely to go up on both Saturday and Sunday. We're nearing the end of SoF's meaningful US Box Office run here.

It started in South Africa yesterday, but we might not see numbers on that for a while. It starts in Australia on the 24th and in Mexico on the 31st.

It's going to need to make roughly its production budget overseas to beat Super Mario Bros, and around 2.25 times its production budget overseas to beat Megan... Minus the few extra million it can scrape up here in the states over the next month or so before it puts up truly meaningless numbers here. It could probably still make half of its production budget in the states before its out of theaters if it's lucky.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Sunday, August 20, 2023 2:13 AM

When I started looking at The Numbers about the time SoF came out, I had thought the projections were from Bruce, as well as the predictions. Then I began to conjure that the projections (green figures) were from the studios, before they became black figures. 6ix also confirmed that he thought so too.

That is for Domestic Box Office.

For International, I'm not sure what is going on. I have not seen an actual definition of "Rest of the World" figures, which go up and down, sometimes daily. Some individual nations have their numbers go either up or down.
Are all of these figures coming from the studios? or from their contract distributors in those countries? Or are the studios reporting some of the numbers, and then Bruce makes up numbers in between, to sort of smooth out the bumps, like extrapolation and interpolation?

I have been starting to take note of these figures, only for Barbie, from the past week. Some things I've noticed, but some things remain elusive.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Sunday, August 20, 2023 2:16 AM

Thursday figures were not posted last night, until this morning:

Updating:

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.

Quote:
If trends continue, I expect SoF to gain another 50% this week (end 20 Aug), and another 30% the next week (end 27 Aug), making it about 1315%.
Using Oppy as a guide, 1/5 of the International Box Office comes from UK, Australia, Mexico. i expect $18M from these 3, which would make it about 1445% when these are tallied. Australia starts trickling in after 24 Aug, and UK/Mexico after 1 Sep.

I do understand that Barbie has a Production Budget of $145M. However, my other table is done to show the numerical trends I had noticed, and I will continue that without changing the denominator, to demonstrate the trend.
If Barbie had continued the trend, I had seen that Barbie would overtake SoF in 2 weeks, and then 2 weeks later would fall below SoF again. That would be IF the summer weekdays continued past 20 Aug, and SoF had no Box office from International.

Bruce's predictions for the weekend do not show SoF in the Top Ten.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Sunday, August 20, 2023 2:27 AM

Updating:

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
But I have still been noticing trends, and I'll make a table to help show this.
I fully expect most folk will not have interest in this, but I think it is curious. Not only because Sound of Freedom is such a wonderful film, but also because it is breaking the mold, much like Maverick did last year.

Barbie has been benefitting from strong summer weekday sales, which SMB did not have. (SMB is a Seth Rogan film?) SoF has had strong Saturday and Sunday figures, the days when honest working folk are not working.

Over the weekend, Barbie made 53.0% of it's Production Budget. Sound of Freedom made 54.0% of it's Production Budget.

I m using $14M as the Production Budget figure for Sof, and $100M for Barbie. Barbie's international balances may bounce around, but this table is using the stated observation of 47.5% Domestic and 52.5% International.

All figures not tagged with % are Millions of Dollars.
For Barbie figures, the same figures are both $Millions, but also % of Production Budget.
1st column is Date.
2nd column is SoF Single Day BO.
3rd column is Single Day BO % of Budget.
4th and 5th are Total Cummulative Box Office, and then % of Budget.
6th and 7th are Last 7 Days of Box Office, and then % of Budget. All for Sound of Freedom.
8th column is Barbie single Day Domestic Box Office.
9th column is the % of Budget gain on SoF % for the same day.
10th column is the Total of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
11th column is the total of the Last 7 Days of Barbie's Domestic Box Office.
12th is the % gain on SoF for the same Last 7 Day period.
13th column - 18th columns are the same things, but for Worldwide Box Office.

0000________Sound of Freedom_______ | _______________Barbie_______________________
000/00000 Domestic Box Office 00000\ / Domestic Box Office 0 Worldwide Box Office \
00000000 1 Day Acuml Total Last L 7D 0000 Gain 00000Lst Gain0000 Gain000000Lst Gain
00001Day %Budg Total %Budg 7Day %Bdg 1Day onSoF Ttl 7Dy SoF 1Day onSoF Ttl 7Dy SoF
27J 2.57 18.4% 136.5 0975% 31.9 228% 21.2 +2.8% 258 236 +8% 44.5 26.1% 542 496 268%
28J 3.77 26.9% 140.3 1002% 30.0 214% 29.0 +2.1% 287 239 25% 60.9 34.0% 603 502 288%
29J 4.81 34.4% 145.1 1036% 27.4 196% 34.5 +0.1% 322 204 +8% 72.5 38.1% 676 428 232%
30J 4.23 30.2% 149.3 1066% 24.9 178% 29.4 -0.8% 351 189 11% 61.7 31.5% 737 397 219%
31J 2.00 14.3% 151.3 1081% 23.7 169% 15.0 +0.7% 366 178 +9% 31.5 17.2% 769 374 205%
1 A 2.06 14.7% 153.4 1096% 22.4 160% 15.3 +0.6% 381 167 +7% 32.1 17.4% 800 351 191%
2 A 1.56 11.1% 155.0 1107% 21.0 150% 12.8 +1.7% 394 157 +7% 26.9 15.8% 827 330 180%
3 A 1.44 10.3% 156.4 1117% 19.9 142% 11.8 +1.5% 406 148 +6% 24.8 14.5% 853 311 169% 185
4 A 2.21 15.8% 158.6 1133% 18.3 131% 16.5 +0.7% 423 135 +4% 34.7 18.9% 888 284 153% 218
5 A 2.87 20.5% 161.5 1154% 16.4 117% 19.5 -1.0% 442 120 +3% 40.9 20.4% 928 252 135% 176
6 A 2.48 17.7% 164.0 1171% 14.6 104% 17.0 -0.7% 459 108 +4% 35.7 18.0% 964 227 123% 170
7 A 1.08 07.7% 165.1 1179% 13.7 098% 09.1 +1.4% 468 102 +4% 19.1 11.4% 983 214 116% 160
8 A 1.17 08.4% 166.2 1187% 12.8 091% 09.6 +1.2% 478 096 +5% 20.2 11.8% A04 202 111% 149
9 A 0.90 06.4% 167.1 1194% 12.1 086% 07.4 +1.0% 485 091 +5% 15.5 09.1% A19 191 105% 139
10A 0.82 05.9% 168.0 1200% 11.5 082% 07.1 +1.2% 492 086 +4% 14.9 09.0% A33 181 099% 130
11A 1.35 09.7% 169.3 1209% 10.7 076% 10.0 +0.3% 502 080 +4% 21.0 11.3% A54 168 092% 116
12A 1.96 14.0% 171.3 1224% 09.8 070% 13.2 -0.8% 516 073 +3% 27.7 13.7% A84 1

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, August 20, 2023 6:21 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
When I started looking at The Numbers about the time SoF came out, I had thought the projections were from Bruce, as well as the predictions. Then I began to conjure that the projections (green figures) were from the studios, before they became black figures. 6ix also confirmed that he thought so too.

That is for Domestic Box Office.

I've heard them referred to by Bruce and others as "Studio Projections", so I believe this is a fact.

Quote:
For International, I'm not sure what is going on. I have not seen an actual definition of "Rest of the World" figures, which go up and down, sometimes daily. Some individual nations have their numbers go either up or down.
Are all of these figures coming from the studios? or from their contract distributors in those countries? Or are the studios reporting some of the numbers, and then Bruce makes up numbers in between, to sort of smooth out the bumps, like extrapolation and interpolation?

Any of that could be true. I don't really know how the international numbers work at all.

My suspicion is that Bruce just works with the information he's provided, however right or wrong it is. He does have a paid for tier that has access to what is supposedly a lot more data than what he provides to everyone. You might get some of your answers if you had that subscription. But given that his site gets mentioned in movie review articles and he charges for some of his data, I don't imagine that he's the one who's knowingly providing false numbers or "guessing". One might argue that is sometimes seemingly left-handed bias that shows could be damaging to his reputation, but I don't think that would be even 1/1000th as damaging to his project as somebody finding out he was faking international numbers would be.

I'd attribute the lack of knowing what's going on internationally to two things:

1. A lot of countries don't have their shit together.

2. Studios love that level of obfuscation. For decades upon decades the people didn't have anywhere near the level of knowledge of their financials at their fingertips like they do today, so they can be scrutinized to a much greater degree now then ever before. I would think the more that remains hidden the happier that would make them.

Quote:
I have been starting to take note of these figures, only for Barbie, from the past week. Some things I've noticed, but some things remain elusive.

If you've looked at my daily posts, Super Mario Bros. is all over the damn place. I don't know if that number changes every day or not since I never bother writing it down, but it's been as high as 1,359% and as low as 1,356% and has bounced up and down quite a bit with none of that being attributed to the several thousand per day it's still earning in the US.

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How you do anything is how you do everything.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Sunday, August 20, 2023 11:17 PM

Sunday has fewer theaters than Saturday.

SECOND

Monday, August 21, 2023 2:51 AM

On Aug 18, 2023, 3:47 PM, Donald Trump posted about this story at https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110912577276499871

‘Sound of Freedom’ actor applauds Trump: ‘I believe Donald Trump was selected by God Almighty’

“Sound of Freedom” star Jim Caviezel discussed President Donald Trump during an interview on “War Room” this week, where he talked about the smashing success of the independent film that has brought awareness to the horrors of child sex trafficking.

During his interview on “War Room,” Caviezel stated that President Trump “will be at peace and at rest” when he watches the film because “you, more than anyone, have done incredible things.”

Caviezel observed, “…Donald Trump, people talk about how private he is about his faith. Well, he’s getting it done for our Lord and Savior.”

The star also explained that he believed Trump had been selected by God to serve as president of the United States. He said, “I believe Donald Trump was selected by God Almighty, and I’m talking about the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit God. And he listened to the voice, and probably did not think he was the best guy, or maybe he thought he was the best guy. Because in my opinion he’s pretty great.”

President Trump is set to host a special screening of “Sound of Freedom” at the Trump National Golf Club Bedminster next week. He will be joined by Jim Caviezel and Mexican filmmaker and producer of the film, Eduardo Verastegui.

https://www.rsbnetwork.com/news/sound-of-freedom-actor-applauds-trump-
i-believe-donald-trump-was-selected-by-god-almighty/

At last, I know why 6ixStringJack has been posting about this movie, which could be a two-part episode of Law & Order Special Victims Unit. No one would pay theater prices to see this, other than to show support for Trump. The more money the movie makes, the more support is shown for Trump.
https://www.nbc.com/law-and-order-special-victims-unit

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly