Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
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6IXSTRINGJACK

Friday, June 2, 2023 7:31 PM

Russia isn't going to use nukes.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

SIGNYM

Friday, June 2, 2023 8:47 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
More bullshit from SECOND. The Soviet Union used attrition effectively and Russia is doing the same, 80 years later.
Troll.
Russians died by the tens of millions. They died in vain because their tactics were not effective. “The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of a million is a statistic.” The Russians have yet to understand Stalin's bon mot. Once a Russian does, they won't volunteer for Ukraine.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Did you know that American military learned about Soviet war strategy from captured Nazi Generals? Of course, Nazi Generals were full of bullshit and excuses..."human waves"... "The winter!" "Subhuman barbarians" ... but the reality is that they LOST THE WAR. Today, our military still believes in blitzkrieg even tho it only works half of the time
You learned your bullshit from Nazis, SECOND. No wonder you sound just like them

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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

SIGNYM

Saturday, June 3, 2023 1:11 AM

Scott Ritter is a former Marine Intelligence Officer. He was an inspector for enforcing nuclear treaties with Russia. He first came to my attention as a WMD inspector under Hans Blix in Iraq. He spoke in great depth about the precautions that the inspection teams took to ensure that their inspections were both a surprise (no sanitized sites) and thorough. He spoke in great detail, which I won't go into, but I was convinced that the UNMOVIC inspections were credible and naysayers from the GWB admin were either bullshitters who didn't know WTF they were talking about, or liars.

I don't agree with all of his analyses, but when describing his actual experience he's honest and forthright.
He just came back from a visit to Russia. I would pay attention to his description of Russia, which he says is vibrant and expanding economically, thanks to sanctions.

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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

SIGNYM

Saturday, June 3, 2023 8:34 AM

Maybe too much reality?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

SIGNYM

Saturday, June 3, 2023 8:39 AM

Ok, how about a thought experiment?

Let's say that Russia has an overwhelming hand against Ukraine and that NATO is unwilling, or incapable, of helping Ukraine any more.
Russian victory, in whatever form, is assured.
What would Russia do?

I think in order to even try to guess ahead, you have to guess what their goal is. IMHO Russia has no interest in taking Ukraine. They have a few goals in mind, openly stated:

They want to protect the Russian speaking people of Ukraine. That I think would ultimately determine how many oblasts they want to fold into Russia.

They want Ukraine not in NATO.

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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

6IXSTRINGJACK

Saturday, June 3, 2023 11:24 AM

All they want is a buffer from NATO.

I can't blame them. NATO is cancer. It stopped serving its purpose decades ago but just keeps finding new and terrible reasons to keep going.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

SECOND

Saturday, June 3, 2023 12:19 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Ok, how about a thought experiment?

Let's say that Russia has an overwhelming hand against Ukraine and that NATO is unwilling, or incapable, of helping Ukraine any more.
Russian victory, in whatever form, is assured.
What would Russia do?

I think in order to even try to guess ahead, you have to guess what their goal is. IMHO Russia has no interest in taking Ukraine. They have a few goals in mind, openly stated:

They want to protect the Russian speaking people of Ukraine. That I think would ultimately determine how many oblasts they want to fold into Russia.

They want Ukraine not in NATO.

To "protect the Russian speaking people of Ukraine" is easy: those people move to Russia. See how easy that is? Nobody dies. No war. It is a simple real estate transaction and moving vans.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
All they want is a buffer from NATO.

I can't blame them. NATO is cancer. It stopped serving its purpose decades ago but just keeps finding new and terrible reasons to keep going.

The way Russia politely asks for a buffer is by either invading or threatening to nuke countries that don't want to be Russia's buffer. NATO's purpose was set when Russia invaded Poland, East Germany, etc. Russian troops moved in and never left until the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia regularly threatened to nuke the rest of Europe. Russia stopped the threats for a while but started making new threats to nuke Europe. 6ix, you should know this. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_138294.htm

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SECOND

Saturday, June 3, 2023 12:33 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
More bullshit from SECOND. The Soviet Union used attrition effectively and Russia is doing the same, 80 years later.
Troll.
Russians died by the tens of millions. They died in vain because their tactics were not effective. “The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of a million is a statistic.” The Russians have yet to understand Stalin's bon mot. Once a Russian does, they won't volunteer for Ukraine.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Did you know that American military learned about Soviet war strategy from captured Nazi Generals? Of course, Nazi Generals were full of bullshit and excuses..."human waves"... "The winter!" "Subhuman barbarians" ... but the reality is that they LOST THE WAR. Today, our military still believes in blitzkrieg even tho it only works half of the time
You learned your bullshit from Nazis, SECOND. No wonder you sound just like them

Russians deliberately kill Russians. That was the policy in WWII. That is the policy in the Ukraine War. That is why tens of millions of Russians died. They were not killed by Germans. They were killed by Russians. See Lethal Politics: Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder since 1917 by R. J. Rummel
Download the free book from https://libgen.unblockit.asia/search.php?req=R.+J.+Rummel
https://www.amazon.com/Lethal-Politics-Soviet-Genocide-Murder-ebook/dp
/B073RQ94KF/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SIGNYM

Saturday, June 3, 2023 2:57 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Ok, how about a thought experiment?

Let's say that Russia has an overwhelming hand against Ukraine and that NATO is unwilling, or incapable, of helping Ukraine any more.
Russian victory, in whatever form, is assured.
What would Russia do?

I think in order to even try to guess ahead, you have to guess what their goal is. IMHO Russia has no interest in taking Ukraine. They have a few goals in mind, openly stated:

They want to protect the Russian speaking people of Ukraine. That I think would ultimately determine how many oblasts they want to fold into Russia.

They want Ukraine not in NATO.
To "protect the Russian speaking people of Ukraine" is easy: those people move to Russia. See how easy that is? Nobody dies. No war. It is a simple real estate transaction and moving vans.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
All they want is a buffer from NATO.

I can't blame them. NATO is cancer. It stopped serving its purpose decades ago but just keeps finding new and terrible reasons to keep going.
The way Russia politely asks for a buffer is by either invading or threatening to nuke countries that don't want to be Russia's buffer. NATO's purpose was set when Russia invaded Poland, East Germany, etc. Russian troops moved in and never left until the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia regularly threatened to nuke the rest of Europe. Russia stopped the threats for a while but started making new threats to nuke Europe. 6ix, you should know this. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_138294.htm

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Russians were promised a buffer in 1990. Instead, NATO moved inexorably east, and NATO even destroyed Yugoslavia to make more little NATO-states.

Russia has been politely asking for a buffer zone since 2000. Instead, the west regime-changed Ukraine and promised it entry into NATO (and the EU).

Obviously, polite-asking the collective west doesn't work, since the collective west has no qualms about invading, destroying, or regime-changing nations that don't do whatthey demand, and the collective west is also "not agreement capable".

So where does Russia go from here?

Well, IMHO they started out with the idea that they were going to panic Kiev into negotiating, and it almost worked until BoJo set Zelenskiy straight a year ago March.

They've been slowly cranking up the "pain dial" and attriting Ukraine. But by now it's very clear that Zelenskiy isn't making the decisions (Altho Ukraine is paying the price) so IMHO Russoa has decided they need to make this painful for the collective west.

So I think there are a few things for them to consider.

I think Russia wants to bleed NATO as much as possible by drawing NATO in to commit more weapons and more volunteers and more "advisors" ino Ukraine, where they can be systematically destroyed. They can best do this by attacking portions of Ukraine that the west feels compelled to defend. Odessa and Kiev would be my two gueses, ut in order to get there they need to munch their way thru Kherson and Kharkov. And before THAT, they need to absorb this ~~winter spring~~ ... summer?? ... offensive, and playing defense to Ukraine;s offense is something that Russia does very well.

So, absorb Ukraine;s counteroffensive then slowly make their way west, attriting as much western weaponry as the west chooses to commit.

Ultimately, I think that Russia might wind up militarily taking the entire Ukraine. Not that it wants western Ukraine ... who wants to administer and rebuild a bunch of Russia-haters in the unproductive part of the country? But in order to reach a settlement they can't leave any portion of Ukraine available to re-arm and start the whole thing over again.

If I were Russia, I would b

SECOND

Saturday, June 3, 2023 7:32 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Russians were promised a buffer in 1990. Instead, NATO moved inexorably east, and NATO even destroyed Yugoslavia to make more little NATO-states.

Russia has been politely asking for a buffer zone since 2000. Instead, the west regime-changed Ukraine and promised it entry into NATO (and the EU).

Obviously, polite-asking the collective west doesn't work, since the collective west has no qualms about invading, destroying, or regime-changing nations that don't do whatthey demand, and the collective west is also "not agreement capable".

So where does Russia go from here?

Well, IMHO they started out with the idea that they were going to panic Kiev into negotiating, and it almost worked until BoJo set Zelenskiy straight a year ago March.

They've been slowly cranking up the "pain dial" and attriting Ukraine. But by now it's very clear that Zelenskiy isn't making the decisions (Altho Ukraine is paying the price) so IMHO Russoa has decided they need to make this painful for the collective west.

So I think there are a few things for them to consider.

I think Russia wants to bleed NATO as much as possible by drawing NATO in to commit more weapons and more volunteers and more "advisors" ino Ukraine, where they can be systematically destroyed. They can best do this by attacking portions of Ukraine that the west feels compelled to defend. Odessa and Kiev would be my two gueses, ut in order to get there they need to munch their way thru Kherson and Kharkov. And before THAT, they need to absorb this ~~winter spring~~ ... summer?? ... offensive, and playing defense to Ukraine;s offense is something that Russia does very well.

So, absorb Ukraine;s counteroffensive then slowly make their way west, attriting as much western weaponry as the west chooses to commit.

Ultimately, I think that Russia might wind up militarily taking the entire Ukraine. Not that it wants western Ukraine ... who wants to administer and rebuild a bunch of Russia-haters in the unproductive part of the country? But in order to reach a settlement they can't leave any portion of Ukraine available to re-arm and start the whole thing over again.

If I were Russia, I would break off a chunk of Ukraine and set up a puppet government with a new Constitution that sys they must remain neutral and demilitarized, and let them join the EU. Make the EU responsible for its economic and financial well=being.

Also, Poland and other neighboring states - Moldova, Hungary, Belarus, and Russia = enter into a security guarantee treaty that requires that no neighboring states arm rump Ukraine. That would probably be ideal for Russia. (Other possibilites inclde paring out the various portions of Ukraine to the nations that contributedto its land mass, especially Poland. For whatever reason, I don't tink that Russia would try that, but that could be be wrong.)

The trick is, what next? Russia really wants those missile installations in Poland and Romania gone, and I think that's a reasonable ask, since they were put in ostensibly to protect Europe from ... wait for it... Iran!

CLEARLY that's just a bogus excuse for USA missiles on Russia's border, and that excuse can easily be argued down.

Also, I think Russia is working hard for as much of the world as possibe to de-dollarize, bc the pinch point in the USA then becomes systemic inflation, and THAT will swing the vote.

Anyway, Ill be very curious to see how this all plays out. If it turns out at all like I've reasoned, I'll be vastly surprised but also pleased with myself.

Pick one out of many words you wrote: "Russia really wants those missile installations in Poland and Romania gone, and I think that's a reasonable ask, since they were put in ostensibly to protect Europe from ... wait for it... Iran! CLEARLY that's just a bogus excuse for USA missiles on Russia's border, and that excuse can easily be argued down."

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