new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
PAGE 77 of 283
Yep, JACKASS has been losing his shit week by week as Trump's election chances go down - lying constantly, posting nonsense, and trolling non-stop.
lol 
JACKASS IS A FUCKING LYING SACK OF SHIT. I WAS DESCRIBING AN ARTICLE I READ. I MADE NO PERSONAL COMMENT OF APPROVAL OR RECOMMENDATION.
Making sure you don't misread me - again. 
Meanwhile, JACKASS AND MUSHY have found common cause! Who would have known a pandemic would have brought them together! At long last!
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Quote:Enhanced testing
Number Of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases In US Passes 5,000 As Global Total Nears 200K: Live Updates
...
Cuomo reports 432 new cases, bringing state total over 1,000 and retaking No. 1 spot
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
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Quote:That's true - and Saudi Arabia - or for THUGGER, Saudia Araba - is helping! With with both hands and both feet!
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think, KIKI, that you're forgetting that China and Russia are subtly trying to topple the USA petrodollar at a time when we are at our most vulnerable (everything bubble, coronvirus, and now oil price war).
The Fed's only possible response (and I mean "only possible", the Fed literally doesn't have any other mode of action in its arsenal) is to pump even more debt into the economy. And while the government (Trump) has a lot more modes of action, it won't take them because Trump is unwilling or incapable of perceiving anything other than throwing more dollars into the bonfire.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
I'd need to think about it but aside from collapsing the US and making it a weak player in the international arena, at the moment I don't see it collapsing the City of London.
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see latest post for most recent figures
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see latest post for most recent figures
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It looks like still no progress.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/science/coronavirus-treatment.html
There is no antiviral drug proven to be effective against the virus.
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So I was just looking at some figures to try and see where things are. I took current data from the WorldOMeter and selected only those countries with more than 5,000 cases. I calculated the percent increase in the last 24 hours.
The numbers are:
USA 26
Fran 17
S. K. 01
Germ 29
Spai 18
Iran 8
Ital 13
Chin 00
China and SK have obviously stopped rampant spread.
I also calculated case fatality ratio as percent. The numbers are
USA 1.7
Fran 2.3
S. K. 1.0
Germ 0.3
Spai 4.5
Iran 6.1
Ital 7.9
Chin 4.0
SK, with the widest available testing and first-world health system is I think the optimum result to expect. And with numbers somewhat stabilized, instead of rapidly changing timelines chasing each other, this seems a reasonably good figure. Germany with a 0.3 is I think a result of a rapidly expanding number of new cases. Infected people haven't had a chance to die yet and catch up to the number of new cases. But we'll see how the numbers develop over time.
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Quote:
White House Takes New Line After Dire Report on Death Toll
Federal guidelines warned against gatherings of more than 10 people as a London report predicted high fatalities in the U.S. without drastic action.
Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.
To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”
That is because different steps, intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, could only cut the predicted death toll by half, the new report said.
The White House guidelines urged Americans to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people. That is a more restrictive stance than recommendations released on Sunday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said that gatherings should be limited to 50.
The White House also recommended that Americans work from home, avoid unnecessary shopping trips and refrain from eating in restaurants. Some states and cities have already imposed stricter measures, including lockdowns and business closings.
Asked at a news conference with President Trump about what had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain.
“What had the biggest impact in the model is social distancing, small groups, not going in public in large groups,” Dr. Birx said. “The most important thing was if one person in the household became infected, the whole household self-quarantined for 14 days. Because that stops 100 percent of the transmission outside of the household.”
Dr. Birx’s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report, released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend.
The group has also shared its fatality estimates with the C.D.C., Dr. Ferguson said, including that eight to nine percent of people in the most vulnerable age group, 80 and older, could die if infected.
Get an informed guide to the global outbreak with our daily coronavirus newsletter.
“We don’t have a clear exit strategy,” Dr. Ferguson said of the recommended measures. “We’re going to have to suppress this virus — frankly, indefinitely — until we have a vaccine.”
“It’s a difficult position for the world to be in,” he added.
The report, which was not released in a peer-reviewed journal but was authored by 30 scientists on behalf of Imperial College’s coronavirus response team, simulated the role of public health measures aimed at reducing contact.
“The effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission,” the authors wrote.
Dr. Ferguson said the potential health impacts were comparable to the devastating 1918 influenza outbreak, and would “kind of overwhelm health system capacity in any developed country, including the United States,” unless measures to reduce the spread of the virus were taken.
The White House task force did not respond to requests for comment. Officials stressed that the federal goNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Here's the report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gid
a-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
I just finished glancing over it. I'll look more closely later.
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Here’s the Punch-in-the-Gut Version of the Imperial College Coronavirus Study
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/heres-the-punch-in-the-gut-vers
ion-of-the-imperial-college-coronavirus-study/
It strikes me that it might be useful to summarize the Imperial College team’s estimate of likely coronavirus deaths. They provide mortality estimates for two scenarios: doing nothing and doing quite a large amount. What we’re doing right now is somewhere between those two, so I’ve filled it in with an interpolation. The team also provides a range of estimates for massive efforts that are strictly enforced for over a year. Here’s roughly how it pencils out:
Total US Deaths / Amount of Effort
#1) 2.2 million / Nothing
#2) 1.5 million? / What we're doing now (modest mitigation)
#3) 1.1 million / A lot more (serious mitigation)
#4) 200 thousand? / A massive amount for a long time (suppression)
The kinds of things the IC team recommends are nowhere near being implemented yet, and to have a serious effect they need to put in place soon. Given where we are now, this means that the only realistic options are #2 and #3. In other words, it’s likely that the US will see 1.1-1.5 million deaths from the coronavirus, with more than half of them coming by June.
Now, this is just one estimate. The Imperial College team used an existing microsimulation model that was created about ten years ago and then plugged in lots of guesses and estimates: what measures would be taken; how many families would comply; average class sizes; commuting distances; incubation periods; etc. Some of these are things we have a pretty good handle on, while others are a lot trickier to estimate. Some of them produce only small changes if you get them wrong, while others are pretty sensitive. So in that sense, take this with a grain of salt.
That said, this appears to be the most sophisticated estimate we have at the moment. It might be wrong, but at this point it would be foolish to simply assume so.
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team - 16 March 2020
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellow
ships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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