new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
PAGE 16 of 283
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/doctor-who-tried-to-warn-people-about-corona
virus-has-died-211153344.html
Kinda like the first person that Iraq/Iran arrested as responsible for shooting down the airplane with 2 missiles was the guy who recorded the missiles hitting the plane, and then posted it to social media.
Probably more like Epstein.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/wuhan-institute-virology-and-chinese-
army-submit-patent-gilead-anti-ebola-drug-fight
Wuhan Institute Of Virology And Chinese Army Submit Patent For Gilead Anti-Ebola Drug To Fight Coronavirus
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-patent/china-lab-seeks
-patent-on-use-of-gileads-coronavirus-treatment-idUSKBN1ZZ0RL
“Gilead is working closely with global health authorities to respond to the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak through the appropriate experimental use of our investigational compound remdesivir. While there are no antiviral data for remdesivir that show activity against 2019-nCoV at this time, available data in other coronaviruses give us hope,” the company stated.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/scientists-warn-you-can-contrac
t-the-coronavirus-more-than-once_02062020
Scientists Warn: You Can Contract The Coronavirus More Than Once
Expert: Recovered coronavirus patients are still prone to reinfection
This virus also has a high likelihood of mutation, which means it could get even more deadly before it’s over. (comment: This is a generic statement, since it's an RNA virus, and RNA viruses are especially prone to mutation.)
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
3 Americans stuck on Cruise ship, have coronavirus.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/3-americans-test-positive-coronavi
rus-183312804.html
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
So, I went back to find out the story of the Princess cruise ship under quarantine off of Japan, after coronavirus cases started to zoom out of sight. In a way, this is another test of the infectivity of the virus, since we can't depend on numbers coming out of China.
https://www.wionews.com/world/japan-to-quarantine-cruise-ship-on-which
-coronavirus-patient-sailed-278445
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3048795/coronavirus-j
apan-quarantines-cruise-ship-called-hong-kong
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-
in-japan-quarantined-after-passenger-diagnosed-with-coronavirus/ar-BBZCVN1
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-61-passengers-test-positive-q
uarantined-cruise-ship-japan/
Going through various stories, as best I can tell the timeline goes like this: An 80 year old man flew into Tokyo on January 17, 2020, and 2 days later, January 19, he developed a cough (but no fever). He boarded the cruise ship Monday January 20, 2020. After a short cruise, he departed the cruise ship partway through its scheduled itinerary at Hong Kong Saturday, January 25, 2020. And he was diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after seeing a doctor Thursday January 30, 2020 because of a fever he developed that day. (In other words, he went a week and a half between having the cough and being infectious, and developing a fever.)
This story was first reported late Monday Feb 3, 2020 after the ship was quarantined earlier in the day. On Feb 4, 10 cases of coronavirus were detect in the passengers tested, and later 10 more were detected on the same day (as far as I can tell from news reports). Roughly a day ago Feb 6, and additional 41 tested positive.
Personally, I think this rapid increase of positive people has to do more with the slowness and incompleteness of the testing, though rapid spread could also be playing some part.
So, patient zero in this case was spreading coronavirus without a fever for 4-5 days (depending on time of embarking Jan 20 and debarking Jan 25). And either he had a heck of a lot of 'close contact' with 61 other passengers, OR the virus is spread more easily than officials state, and/or newly infected passengers are spreading coronavirus in a very short time.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I hope the CDC and any of the government powers of the world are watching this and taking note.
lol
If something comes along that is going to decimate us, there either isn't shit we can do about it, or we are woefully under-prepared for the challenge.
But hey, maybe this is the big one. 
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
First American death, never escaped Wuhan. Death toll rises over 700.
https://www.newser.com/story/286692/a-coronavirus-first-american-repor
ted-dead.html
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html
The upshot of the NYTimes article , which was based on 2 JAMA papers is that
1) not only does coronavirus spread like the flu, it has superspreaders, like SARS
2) one paper reports a death rate of 4.6%
Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessK
ey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=020720
Epidemiologic and Clinical Characteristics of Novel Coronavirus Infections Involving 13 Patients Outside Wuhan, China
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761043?guestAccessK
ey=4304fae0-947f-4a45-852c-ffb9240ff8be&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_content=olf&utm_term=020720
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Excellent test environment model.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
So, I went back to find out the story of the Princess cruise ship under quarantine off of Japan, after coronavirus cases started to zoom out of sight. In a way, this is another test of the infectivity of the virus, since we can't depend on numbers coming out of China.
https://www.wionews.com/world/japan-to-quarantine-cruise-ship-on-which
-coronavirus-patient-sailed-278445
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3048795/coronavirus-j
apan-quarantines-cruise-ship-called-hong-kong
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-
in-japan-quarantined-after-passenger-diagnosed-with-coronavirus/ar-BBZCVN1
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-61-passengers-test-positive-q
uarantined-cruise-ship-japan/
Going through various stories, as best I can tell the timeline goes like this: An 80 year old man flew into Tokyo on January 17, 2020, and 2 days later, January 19, he developed a cough (but no fever). He boarded the cruise ship Monday January 20, 2020. After a short cruise, he departed the cruise ship partway through its scheduled itinerary at Hong Kong Saturday, January 25, 2020. And he was diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after seeing a doctor Thursday January 30, 2020 because of a fever he developed that day. (In other words, he went a week and a half between having the cough and being infectious, and developing a fever.)
This story was first reported late Monday Feb 3, 2020 after the ship was quarantined earlier in the day. On Feb 4, 10 cases of coronavirus were detect in the passengers tested, and later 10 more were detected on the same day (as far as I can tell from news reports). Roughly a day ago Feb 6, and additional 41 tested positive.
Personally, I think this rapid increase of positive people has to do more with the slowness and incompleteness of the testing, though rapid spread could also be playing some part.
So, patient zero in this case was spreading coronavirus without a fever for 4-5 days (depending on time of embarking Jan 20 and debarking Jan 25). And either he had a heck of a lot of 'close contact' with 61 other passengers, OR the virus is spread more easily than officials state, and/or newly infected passengers are spreading coronavirus in a very short time.
Are you keeping track of the various models? Obviously, some will be faster moving, some slower. But having a range of the accurately-known cases can be enlightning.
Do you give credence to the report of 16% death rate?
Or have you seen or confirmed credible figures for rate of spread (?contagion rate?) versus rate of fatality after contracting the case?
For the cruise ship, I'm not sure if you found these details: When testing/screening, were all passengers screened? Meaning, were they screened once, then after some days, screened again positive? Or were the screenings just progressive, not the whole manifest screened each time, just however many test kits they had available?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Sadly, many details aren't in the news. Regarding screening - there are all of 400 test kits prepared by the CDC here in the US and distributed to various agencies across the states for more rapid screening v sending them to the CDC. It's known that China is short of test kits. So I don't imagine Japan is in any condition to test all 4000+ people (passengers and crew) even once on the one ship that was quarantined (there are 2 that I can think of offhand, btw). I imagine they only tested 'for cause'. I didn't find any reports of how many were tested v how many were positive.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Excellent test environment model.
Are you keeping track of the various models? Obviously, some will be faster moving, some slower. But having a range of the accurately-known cases can be enlightening.
Do you give credence to the report of 16% death rate?
Or have you seen or confirmed credible figures for rate of spread (?contagion rate?) versus rate of fatality after contracting the case?
For the cruise ship, I'm not sure if you found these details: When testing/screening, were all passengers screened? Meaning, were they screened once, then after some days, screened again positive? Or were the screenings just progressive, not the whole manifest screened each time, just however many test kits they had available?
The death rate is extremely difficult to determine, I think. Unless you test everybody, you don't know how many people are sick. And then you have to accurately determine the cause of death. So I don't give too much credence to any death rate at this point.
As for the various models, they exist under various conditions. So for example there is the cruise ship model which I think is a good representation of free spread, and I think the most salient model for a sick person moving though a dense population. Then there's the JAMA-reported model of spread in a Chinese hospital. Then there's the US-based model which is spread after identification (for cause) and quarantine. So ... it depends.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME