Will Your State Regain It's Representation Next Decade?

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, January 15, 2020 6:02 AM

Now I will try to make projections of 2020 Census figures, based upon the 2019 Estimates data, and assuming the amount of change from 2018 to 2019 (as reported in 2019) continue for the remaining 9 months before 1 April 2020 (since 1 July 2019).

Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Alright, I'll see if I can pack in the new data, alongside the data from last year.

Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Census had a press release on 30 Dec 2019. They dodged and weaved around the facts, but some data could be discerned from it. I have not yet found a set of actual raw data from them. This is all a report of the Census data for 1 July 2019.


https://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html


Here I have copied a prior table, where I extrapolated the projected 1 July Population figures, and I will add a last column or 2 which reflect the data that was just provided.


Well, now that I've filled out the portions of data that they've provided, I can see that none of the numbers add up. The figures that they had for 2018 and now for 2019, the differences do not add to what they state are the differences. So maybe they revised some data from last year. I'll need to look into this.

Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.

This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.

I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)

There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is Population in the 2010 Census. As reported in 2018.
Second column is current Population (est 1 July 2018). As reported in 2018.
Third column is Projected Population for 2019.


Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, January 23, 2020 4:28 AM

If the above projection holds true, then no state will regain it's Representation from the last decade. But Montana gains a seat, which I think it had once before.


Of note, most of these projections are showing that NY and IL are on the verge of losing a 2nd seat, not just a single seat.

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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, January 27, 2020 2:27 AM

I heard that U-Haul gave it's Best Salesman of the Year award to Governor Fredo Cuomo of NY. Not sure if that was serious or not.

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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, January 31, 2020 5:51 AM

Ever since the new data from 2019 was released and provided "revised" or whatever data retroactively changing the Census 2010 population counts, I've been wondering if this new Fake Data would have changed the allocation of Representatives for the past 10 years.

As an exercise, I've decide to check that out.

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Alright, I'll see if I can pack in the new data, alongside the data from last year.

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Census had a press release on 30 Dec 2019. They dodged and weaved around the facts, but some data could be discerned from it. I have not yet found a set of actual raw data from them. This is all a report of the Census data for 1 July 2019.


https://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html


Here I have copied a prior table, where I extrapolated the projected 1 July Population figures, and I will add a last column or 2 which reflect the data that was just provided.


Well, now that I've filled out the portions of data that they've provided, I can see that none of the numbers add up. The figures that they had for 2018 and now for 2019, the differences do not add to what they state are the differences. So maybe they revised some data from last year. I'll need to look into this.

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.

This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.

I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)

There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is Population in the 2010 Census. As reported in 2018.
Second column is current Population (est 1 July 2018). As reported in 2018.
Third column is Projected Population for 2019.


Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, February 1, 2020 3:53 AM

In case I haven't done so before, this is a link to the priority numbers resulting from the 2010 Census. These do not itemize or list the actual population figures used, but through reverse formula the actual population figure can be found. Until they also revise this with Fake Data.


https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2010/data/apportion
ment/PriorityValues2010.pdf



From that:
Priority value for seat 2, then what the population figure must have been to get that priority number:
CA 26404774 37,341,990
TX 17867470 25,268,418
NY 13732760 19,421,055
FL 13364865 18,900,773
IL 9096490 12,864,380

PA 9004938 12,734,905
OH 8180161 11,568,495
MI 7008578 9,911,626
GA 6878428 9,727,566
NC 6764029 9,565,782

NJ 6227844 8,807,501
VA 5683538 8,037,737
WA 4775353 6,753,369
MA 4638369 6,559,644
IN 4597313 6,501,582

AZ 4534464 6,412,700
TN 4508110 6,375,430
MO 4250757 6,011,478
MD 4094098 5,789,929
WI 4029257 5,698,230

MN 3758187 5,314,879
CO 3567304 5,044,930
AL 3396221 4,802,982
SC 3285200 4,645,974
LA 3220137 4,553,961

KY 3076343 4,350,606
OR 2721375 3,848,605
OK 2662174 3,764,883
CT 2532593 3,581,627
IA 2159353 3,053,786

MS 2105934 2,978,240
AR 2069156 2,926,228
KS 2025022 2,863,814
UT 1959227 2,770,765
NV 1915858 2,709,432

NM 1461783 2,067,273
WV 1315088 1,859,815
NE 1295296 1,831,825
ID 1112632 1,573,499
HI 966517 1,366,861

ME 942626 1,333,074
NH 934403 1,321,445
RI 746172 1,055,247
MT 703158 994,416

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