Will Your State Regain It's Representation Next Decade?
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Thursday, July 17, 2025 20:20
VIEWED: 14891
PAGE 1 of 12
To the count you had last decade?
The 2020 Census is scheduled to have the standard set of questions, after the one-time Obama scam set which was used only in 2010. By removing a question to help hide Illegal Alien Status, he was able to redistribute Representatives and Electors to Libtard States and regions. States which were lean on Illegal Aliens like "rust belt" States lost their representation to States consumed and overrun by Illegal Aliens.
I'm in Wisconsin, which looks like it would gain back a seat.
Obviously, California and New York will lose seats. Likely also New Mexico and Arizona.
How about yours?
Or other States you know about?
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I'd say that Indiana never really lost it's focus. The sign you see when you cross into Indiana says "A State that Works".
Low taxes and lots of services. I'd say that's a slogan that continues to be earned.
If I lived 40 or so miles west of where I do, I'd be in Illinois and more than 60% of my projected income in 2018 would go to paying property taxes on a similar home. Here it's closer to around 8 to 10% of it.
If I had a real job, my property taxes would be a pittance.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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A related thread is tid=62878
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Montana is certain to gain a Seat.
Idaho might gain a Seat.
Florida could gain 3 or 4 Seats, unless their Illegal Aliens were overcounted last time.
Texas might gain 3 seats if their Illegal Aliens were counted again (gained 4 seats that way), but without counting Illegal Aliens, might lose a Seat.
If California counted 5 Million Illegal Aliens last time, they could lose 7 Seats without that count.
AZ might lose the Seat they gained last time when counting Illegal Aliens.
NY, PA, IL, OH will likely each lose a Seat, due to Population loss or shift.
NC would gain a Seat, while MI would lose a Seat.
WA and CO could gain a Seat, if Illegals were not overcounted last time.
Utah is certain to gain a Seat, while KS or AR might lose a Seat.
Last time there were 12 House Seats which migrated.
The above summary suggests 10-13 gains.
And perhaps 15 losses.
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I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.
First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.
Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.
ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu 10Pop/Rp 18est P/R
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 702,885 | 760,712 | 52 | 52/052 | 753,501/435
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 698,503 | 755,312 | 38 | 38/090 | 745,565
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 717,707 | 751,623 | 26 | 26/144 | 737,573
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 696,468 | 734,459 | 29 | 28/118 | 747,459
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 712,864 | 796,318 | 16 | 16/177 | 772,541/428
PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 705,716 | 753,356 | 17 | 17/161 |
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 721,045 | 779,296 | 15 | 15/192 | 754,550/433
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | 706,009 | 769,147 | 13 | 13/232 | 741,168
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | 692,049 | 751,391 | 14 | 14/206 |
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | 733,515 | 741,687 | 14 | 13/219 | 769,685/429
NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | 732,661 | 752,739 | 12 | 12/244 |
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | 727,368 | 774,335 | 11 | 11/255 | 741,369
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | 672,454 | 675,963 | 11 | 10/265 | 718,490
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | 727,535 | 766,905 | 09 | 09/283 |
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | 720,470 | 743,542 | 09 | 08/300 | 788,645/424
AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 710,256 | 717,165 | 10 | 09/274 | 755,957/432
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | 705,142 | 752,223 | 09 | 09/292 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | 748,616 | 765,807 | 08 | 08/308 | 722,009
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | 721,723 | 755,340 | 08 | 08/316 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | 710,911 | 726,696 | 08 | 07/323 | 776,870/427
MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 662,991 | 801,597 | 07 | 07/337 | 749,825
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | 718,475 | 813,652 | 07 | 07/330 | 761,101/431
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 682,875 | 814,645 | 06 | 06/349 | 754,214/434
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | 660,772 | 726,447 | 07 | 06/343 | 784,497/426
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | 755,580 | 776,663 | 06 | 06/355 |
KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | 723,225 | 744,734 | 06 | 05/360 | 815,814/422
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | 766,215 | 838,145 | 05 | 05/365 | 765,116/430
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | 750,323 | 788,616 | 05 | 05/370 |
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | 714,824 | 893,166 | 04 | 04/374 | 798,872/423
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | 761,715 | 789,036 | 04 | 04/382 | 705,735
MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | 742,026 | 746,633 | 04 | 03/393 | 862,136/419
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | 728,990 | 753,456 | 04 | 04/390 |
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | 713,283 | 727,876 | 04 | 03/396 | 840,479/421
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | 690,648 | 790,279 | 04 | 04/378 | 706,844
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | 675,173 | 758,598 | 04 | 04/386 |
NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | 686,397 | 698,799 | 03 | 02/398 | 855,454/420
WV 03 01,853,011 | 01,805,832 | 617,670 | 902,916 | 02 | 02/402 | 737,227
NE 03 01,826,341 | 01,929,268 | 608,780 | 964,634 | 02 | 02/400 | 787,620/425
I D 02 01,567,652 | 01,774,208 | 783,826 | 887,104 | 02 | 02/404 |
H I 02 01,360,301 | 01,420,491 | 680,151 | 7
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Summary of the above Table:
California would get the 435th Seat, just barely keeping its 53 Seats.
The next Seat would have gone to Montana. After that would be RI (would keep 2nd Seat), FL (would gain a 2nd Seat), MN (would keep current Seat).
TX gains 2.
FL gains 1. Also NC, AZ, CO, OR.
NY loses 1. Also IL, PA, MI, MN, VW, RI.
So 7 Seats would migrate if those Populations were Apportioned today.
Of the losers, 3 went to Trump.
Of the gainers, 4 States gaining 5 Electoral Votes went to Trump.
So that would be a gain of a margin of 4 for Trump.
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Quote:Projecting to 2020 Census with current Population and migration trends:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Summary of the above Table:
California would get the 435th Seat, just barely keeping its 53 Seats.
The next Seat would have gone to Montana. After that would be RI (would keep 2nd Seat), FL (would gain a 2nd Seat), MN (would keep current Seat).
TX gains 2.
FL gains 1. Also NC, AZ, CO, OR.
NY loses 1. Also IL, PA, MI, MN, VW, RI.
So 7 Seats would migrate if those Populations were Apportioned today.
Of the losers, 3 went to Trump.
Of the gainers, 4 States gaining 5 Electoral Votes went to Trump.
So that would be a gain of a margin of 4 for Trump.
Florida would gain 2 Seats.
Montana would gain a Seat.
California would lose a Seat.
Either AL, OH, or AZ would lose a Seat. If Illegal Aliens were overcounted in AZ, that would be the most likely loss.
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Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.
ST 00 10 18 20
CA 53 53 53 52 lose 1
TX 32 36 38 38 gains 2
NY 29 27 26 26 loses another
FL 25 27 28 29 gains more
I L 19 18 17 17 loses another
PA 19 18 17 17 loses another
OH 18 16 16 16 will not regain
M I 15 14 13 13 loses another
GA 13 14 14 14
NC 13 13 14 14 gains 1 (should have had last time)
NJ 13 12 12 12 will not regain
VA 11 11 11 11
MA 10 09 09 09 will not regain
WA 09 10 10 10
I N 09 09 09 09
TN 09 09 09 09
MO 09 08 08 08 will not regain
AZ 08 09 10 09
MN 08 08 07 07 loses 1 Seat
W I 08 08 08 08
MD 08 08 08 08
CO 07 07 08 08 gains 1
AL 07 07 07 07
LA 07 06 06 06 will not regain
SC 06 07 07 07
KY 06 06 06 06
OR 05 05 06 06 gains 1
OK 05 05 05 05
CT 05 05 05 05
I A 05 04 04 04 will not regain
MS 04 04 04 04
AR 04 04 04 04
KS 04 04 04 04
NE 03 03 03 03
UT 03 04 04 04
NV 03 04 04 04
NM 03 03 03 03
WV 03 03 02 02 lose 1
I D 02 02 02 02
H I 02 02 02 02
ME 02 02 02 02
NH 02 02 02 02
R I 02 02 01 01 lose 1
MT 01 01 01 02 gain 1
DE 01 01 01 01
SD 01 01 01 01
AK 01 01 01 01
ND 01 01 01 01
VT 01 01 01 01
WY 01 01 01 01
So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.
Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?
Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.
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I was looking for more precise details of the Population projections for Census 2020. I found that the most current Projections are from Sabatos Crystal Ball, and are based upon trends and extrapolation of the Population estimates from 2014. The most recent Population estimates, for 1 July 2018, were just released 19 December 2018. These are the figures I used, and approximated results for 2020.
I will, just for fun and greater accuracy, extrapolate Population Projection counts for each State for 2020, based upon the 2018 estimates. This will be taking the Population change from 1 April 2010 to 1 July 2018, and multiplying by 1.25 to get the Population change for 2020. More accurate would be 120/99, or 40/33 - but the estimates are not usually that great to start with.
Projections from that 2014 data indicate Montana would not gain a Seat, and NY would not lose a Seat. And VA, CA would gain a Seat.
I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.
First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.
Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.
ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu | 2020 Projd |
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 40,133,082 | 52 | 52/052 | 764474/435
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 29,590,783 | 39 | 38/090 | 768656/433
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 19,583,239 | 25 | 25/143 | 768117/434
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 21,922,945 | 29 | 28/118 | 769344/432
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 12,718,463 | 16 | 16/175 | 771170/431
PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 12,833,103 | 16 | 16/159 | 778121/429
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 11,727,696 | 15 | 15/190 | 757019
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | 10,027,611 | 13 | 13/230 | 743295
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | 10,727,173 | 14 | 14/204 | 740245
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | 10,595,602 | 14 | 13/217 | 785398/425
NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | 09,093,107 | 12 | 11/241 | 791453/424
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | 08,646,845 | 11 | 11/252 | 752611
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | 07,738,353 | 11 | 10/262 | 737823
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | 06,990,732 | 09 | 09/280 | 736887
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | 06,743,790 | 09 | 08/297 | 794763/423
AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 07,366,481 | 10 | 09/271 | 776495/430
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | 06,875,944 | 09 | 09/289 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | 06,160,833 | 08 | 08/305 | 726061
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | 06,109,951 | 08 | 08/313 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | 05,845,138 | 08 | 07/327 | 781089/428
MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 05,687,992 | 07 | 07/334 | 760089
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | 05,862,124 | 07 | 07/320 | 783359/426
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 04,914,807 | 06 | 06/346 | 758371
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | 05,198,808 | 07 | 06/340 | 802193/420
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | 04,691,604 | 06 | 06/352 | 718946
KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | 04,500,027 | 06 | 05/357 | 821588/419
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | 04,280,623 | 05 | 05/362 | 781531/427
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | 03,990,945 | 05 | 05/367 | 728643
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | 03,572,302 | 04 | 04/371 | 798791/421
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | 03,183,464 | 04 | 04/379 |
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Double posty. I'll make the first one with the 10/8 factor, and this one the 40/33 factor, in case there is a difference.
I was looking for more precise details of the Population projections for Census 2020. I found that the most current Projections are from Sabatos Crystal Ball, and are based upon trends and extrapolation of the Population estimates from 2014. The most recent Population estimates, for 1 July 2018, were just released 19 December 2018. These are the figures I used, and approximated results for 2020.
I will, just for fun and greater accuracy, extrapolate Population Projection counts for each State for 2020, based upon the 2018 estimates. This will be taking the Population change from 1 April 2010 to 1 July 2018, and multiplying by 1.25 to get the Population change for 2020. More accurate would be 120/99, or 40/33 - but the estimates are not usually that great to start with.
I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.
First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.
Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.
ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu 10Pop/Rp 18est P/R
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 40,045,804 | 52 | 52/052 | 762811/435
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 29,456,094 | 38 | 38/090 | 765157/434
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 19,577,023 | 26 | 25/143 | 767874/432
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 21,828,504 | 29 | 28/118 | 766030/433
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 12,721,890 | 16 | 16/175 | 771377/431
PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 12,829,157 | 17 | 16/159 | 777881/429
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 11,721,836 | 15 | 15/192 | 756641
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | | 13 | 13/232 |
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | | 14 | 14/206 |
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | | 14 | 13/219 |
NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | | 12 | 12/244 |
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | | 11 | 11/255 |
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | | 11 | 10/265 |
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | | 09 | 09/283 |
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | | 09 | 08/300 |
AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 07,336,960 | 10 | 09/274 | 773383/430
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | | 09 | 09/292 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | | 08 | 08/308 |
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | | 08 | 08/316 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | | 08 | 07/323 |
MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 05,676,354 | 07 | 07/337 | 758534
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | | 07 | 07/330 |
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 04,910,726 | 06 | 06/349 | 757741
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | | 07 | 06/343 |
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | | 06 | 06/355 |
KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | | 06 | 05/360 |
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | | 05 | 05/365 |
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | | 05 | 05/370 |
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | | 04 | 04/374 |
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | | 04 | 04/382 |
MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | | 04 | 03/393 |
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | | 04 | 04/390 |
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | | 04 | 03/396 |
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | | 04 | 04/378 |
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | | 04 | 04/386 |
NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | | 03 | 02/398
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