Will Your State Regain It's Representation Next Decade?
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Thursday, July 17, 2025 20:20
VIEWED: 14891
PAGE 5 of 12
I think this year's census estimate comes out in June, so I should check the figures here in case I forgot something.
This is a reminder to me.
Another thread is 62878.
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The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.
This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.
I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)
There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.
I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.
First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is percent change from Labor Force of March 2018 to March 2019.
Fifth column is Projected Population for 2019.
Sixth column is 2019 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population. (and subtotal)
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.
Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.
ST #R 2010 Popul 2018 Popul | %Chng 2019 Projd |
CA 53 37,252,895 39,557,045 | +0.95 39,931,485 | 52 52/052 760634/(436)
TX 36 25,146,105 28,701,846 | +1.74 29,200,660 | 39 38/090 758522
NY 27 19,378,087 19,542,209 | +0.39 19,617,851 | 25 25/143 769475/433
FL 27 18,804,623 21,299,325 | +1.09 21,531,733 | 29 28/118 755598/432
IL 18 12,831,549 12,741,080 | +0.04 12,745,989 | 16 16/175 772839/431
PA 18 12,702,887 12,807,060 | +1.18 12,957,820 | 16 16/159 785683/425
OH 16 11,536,725 11,689,442 | +1.23 11,832,858 | 15 15/190 763807/435
MI 14 09,884,129 09,998,915 | -0.77 09,921,866 | 13 13/229 735457
GA 14 09,688,681 10,519,475 | -0.21 10,497,522 | 14 13/216 778128/427
NC 13 09,535,692 10,383,620 | +1.58 10,547,657 | 14 13/203 781844/426
NJ 12 08,791,936 09,032,873 | +0.84 09,108,816 | 12 11/240 792820/424
VA 11 08,001,045 08,517,685 | +0.86 08,591,030 | 11 11/251 747753
WA 10 06,724,543 07,535,591 | +3.24 07,779,673 | 11 10/261 741762
MA 09 06,547,817 06,902,149 | +1.53 07,007,750 | 09 09/279 738681
IN 09 06,484,229 06,691,878 | +1.58 06,797,584 | 09 08/296 801102/422
AZ 09 06,392,307 07,171,646 | +2.84 07,375,566 | 10 09/270 777452/428
TN 09 06,346,275 06,770,010 | +2.91 06,967,049 | 09 09/288
MO 08 05,988,927 06,126,452 | -0.46 06,134,331 | 08 08/304 722937
MD 08 05,773,785 06,042,718 | +0.45 06,069,668 | 08 08/312
WI 08 05,687,289 05,813,568 | -0.44 05,788,277 | 08 07/326 773491/429
MN 08 05,303,925 05,611,179 | +1.07 05,671,216 | 07 07/333 757848
CO 07 05,029,324 05,695,564 | +2.17 05,818,329 | 07 07/319 +/414
AL 07 04,780,127 04,887,871 | +1.65 04,968,638 | 06 06/345 766677/434
SC 07 04,625,401 05,084,127 | +2.40 05,206,181 | 07 06/339 803331/421
LA 06 04,533,4
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I will further extrapolate the same Trump Economy trends into the Projected 2020 Population.
The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.
This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019. And 8,023,754 for 2020.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019. And 2,911,910 for 2020.
I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)
There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.
I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.
First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is percent change from Labor Force of March 2018 to March 2019.
Fifth column is Projected Population for 2020 - adding the same amount as the prior year.
Sixth column is 2020 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population. (and subtotal)
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.
Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.
ST #R 2010 Popul 2018 Popul | %Chng 2020 Projd |
CA 53 37,252,895 39,557,045 | +0.95 40,305,924 | 52 52/052 767766/(436)
TX 36 25,146,105 28,701,846 | +1.74 29,699,474 | 39 38/090 771480/434
NY 27 19,378,087 19,542,209 | +0.39 19,693,493 | 25 25/143 772442/433
FL 27 18,804,623 21,299,325 | +1.09 21,763,141 | 29 28/118 763736/
IL 18 12,831,549 12,741,080 | +0.04 12,750,898 | 16 16/175 773136/431
PA 18 12,702,887 12,807,060 | +1.18 13,108,580 | 16 16/159 794824/426
OH 16 11,536,725 11,689,442 | +1.23 11,976,274 | 15 15/190 773065/432
MI 14 09,884,129 09,998,915 | -0.77 09,844,817 | 13 13/229
GA 14 09,688,681 10,519,475 | -0.21 10,475,569 | 14 13/216 776500/430
NC 13 09,535,692 10,383,620 | +1.58 10,711,694 | 14 13/203 794003/427
NJ 12 08,791,936 09,032,873 | +0.84 09,184,759 | 12 11/240 799430/424
VA 11 08,001,045 08,517,685 | +0.86 08,665,375 | 11 11/251
WA 10 06,724,543 07,535,591 | +3.24 08,023,754 | 11 10/261 765034
MA 09 06,547,817 06,902,149 | +1.53 07,113,351 | 09 09/279 749813
IN 09 06,484,229 06,691,878 | +1.58 06,903,290 | 09 08/296 813560/422
AZ 09 06,392,307 07,171,646 | +2.84 07,579,486 | 10 09/270 798948/425
TN 09 06,346,275 06,770,010 | +2.91 07,164,088 | 09 09/288 755161
MO 08 05,988,927 06,126,452 | -0.46 06,106,210 | 08 08/304 719623
MD 08 05,773,785 06,042,718 | +0.45 06,096,618 | 08 08/312
WI 08 05,687,289 05,813,568 | -0.44 05,762,986 | 08 07/326 770111/435
MN 08 05,303,925 05,611,179 | +1.07 05,731,259 | 07 07/333 765871
CO 07 05,029,324 05,695,564 | +2.17
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Gee whiz, without adequate login ability, it takes forever to update this info.
I did notice some things when I was going thru the data.
Using the Census estimate from July 2018, and comparing the Labor Force for March 2018, it seems many States have only about half of their population counted in the Labor Force.
States with more than 50% of their population counted in the Labor Force: VA, WA, MA, IN, MD, WI, MN, CO, CT, IA, KS, NE, ME, NH, RI, SD, ND, VT.
The other 32 States have less than half of their population counted in the Labor Force. That is Civilian Labor Force, so perhaps Military bases might have some effect on those figures.
Outliers: VT 55.4%, MA 54.7%, MN 54.5%, WI 53.9%, MS 42.7%, WV 43.0%, NM 44.5%, AR 44.7%, AL 45.0%.
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Adding in the Seats from these newlt Projected 2020 Apportionment.
Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.
ST 00 10 18 19 20
CA 53 53 53 52 52
TX 32 36 38 38 39
NY 29 27 26 26 26
FL 25 27 28 29 28
IL 19 18 17 17 17
PA 19 18 17 17 17
OH 18 16 16 16 16
MI 15 14 13 13 13
GA 13 14 14 14 14
NC 13 13 14 14 14
NJ 13 12 12 12 12
VA 11 11 11 11 11
MA 10 09 09 09 09
WA 09 10 10 10 10
IN 09 09 09 09 09
TN 09 09 09 09 09
MO 09 08 08 08 08
AZ 08 09 10 10 10
MN 08 08 07 07 07
WI 08 08 08 08 08
MD 08 08 08 08 08
CO 07 07 08 08 08
AL 07 07 07 07 07
LA 07 06 06 06 06
SC 06 07 07 07 07
KY 06 06 06 06 06
OR 05 05 06 06 06
OK 05 05 05 05 05
CT 05 05 05 05 05
IA 05 04 04 04 04
MS 04 04 04 04 04
AR 04 04 04 04 04
KS 04 04 04 04 04
NE 03 03 03 03 03
UT 03 04 04 04 04
NV 03 04 04 04 04
NM 03 03 03 03 03
WV 03 03 02 02 02
ID 02 02 02 02 02
HI 02 02 02 02 02
ME 02 02 02 02 02
NH 02 02 02 02 02
RI 02 02 01 01 01
MT 01 01 01 01 01
DE 01 01 01 01 01
SD 01 01 01 01 01
AK 01 01 01 01 01
ND 01 01 01 01 01
VT 01 01 01 01 01
WY 01 01 01 01 01
So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.
Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?
Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.
Something I didn't really point out: one-time events do not help the accuracy of extrapolating Projection, so if Alabama does not suffer another catastrophic hurricane before the Census, it might not lose a Seat, and then CA would lose 1.
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So, if those projections hold up, then the only difference from now until Census next year is that TX will gain a Seat - from CA - and if FL gains another Seat, WI loses one.
As well, no State which lost a Seat in 2010 Census is looking like they will gain back a Seat.
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Census had a press release on 30 Dec 2019. They dodged and weaved around the facts, but some data could be discerned from it. I have not yet found a set of actual raw data from them. This is all a report of the Census data for 1 July 2019.
https://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html
Here I have copied a prior table, where I extrapolated the projected 1 July Population figures, and I will add a last column or 2 which reflect the data that was just provided.
Well, now that I've filled out the portions of data that they've provided, I can see that none of the numbers add up. The figures that they had for 2018 and now for 2019, the differences do not add to what they state are the differences. So maybe they revised some data from last year. I'll need to look into this.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.
This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.
I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)
There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.
I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.
First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is percent change from Labor Force of March 2018 to March 2019.
Fifth column is Projected Population for 2019.
Sixth column is 2019 assumed number of Seats.
Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population. (and subtotal)
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.
Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.
ST #R 2010 Popul 2018 Popul | %Chng 2019 Projd | Actual 2019 Pop/change
CA 53 37,252,895 39,557,045 | +0.95 39,931,485 | 39,512,223
TX 36 25,146,105 28,701,846 | +1.74 29,200,660 | 28,995,881
NY 27 19,378,087 19,542,209 | +0.39 19,617,851 | 19,453,561/ -76,790
FL 27 18,804,623 21,299,325 | +1.09 21,531,733 | 21,477,737
IL 18 12,831,549 12,741,080 | +0.04 12,745,989 | 12,671,821/ -51,250
PA 18 12,702,887 12,807,060 | +1.18 12,957,820 | 12,801,989
OH 16 11,536,725 11,689,442 | +1.23 11,832,858 | 11,689,100
MI 14 09,884,129 09,998,915 | -0.77 09,921,866 | 09,986,857
GA 14 09,688,681 10,519,475 | -0.21 10,497,522 | 10,617,423
NC 13 09,535,692 10,383,620 | +1.58 10,547,657 | 10,488,084
NJ 12 08,791,936 09,032,873 | +0.84 09,108,816 | /-3,835
VA 11 08,001,045 08,517,685 | +0.86 08,591,030 |
WA 10 06,724,5
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Well, it looks like they are revising history again.
Found a table of data.
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state
-total.html
This page, the first of the list of "Tables" which is labeled up til 2019.
Trying to be fair, the data for 2018 was an Estimate, and it could be conjured that more data had become available.
However, the last Census was 2010, and the new set of data for 2019 includes population Census figures from 2010 which are different from what they said in 2018. So this means they are rewriting history. They are changing what the Census had tabulated. Which should be nonsense.
But I will attempt to compile it for predictive purposes.
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Alright, I'll see if I can pack in the new data, alongside the data from last year.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Census had a press release on 30 Dec 2019. They dodged and weaved around the facts, but some data could be discerned from it. I have not yet found a set of actual raw data from them. This is all a report of the Census data for 1 July 2019.
https://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html
Here I have copied a prior table, where I extrapolated the projected 1 July Population figures, and I will add a last column or 2 which reflect the data that was just provided.
Well, now that I've filled out the portions of data that they've provided, I can see that none of the numbers add up. The figures that they had for 2018 and now for 2019, the differences do not add to what they state are the differences. So maybe they revised some data from last year. I'll need to look into this.Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The BLS has released data about Labor Force figures for States. I am now using the change from March 2018 to March 2019 to provide indication of population change, and show resulting projections. These trends are now during the Trump Economy, and are quite different that the prior part of the decade.
This is not a comprehensive analysis, just a snapshot of the annual effect the current Trump Economy has had, and extrapolated upon the Estimates of July 2018 from the Census Bureau.
For example, WA Labor Force went from 3,770,820 in March 2018 to 3,892,959 in March 2019 (not Seasonally Adjusted), an increase of 3.24% in one year. Applied to the 2018 population estimated by The Census Bureau of 7,535,591 results in 7,779,673 for 2019.
Similarly, MS went from 1,276,084 to 1,260,142 - a decrease of 1.25%. Applied to 2018's 2,986,530 gives us 2,949,220 for 2019.
I have noticed with this data that the Trump Economy seems to have populations moving back to cities, Metropolitan areas, and Liberal areas and States - which might be counterproductive to GOP efforts come Election time, and come Reapportionment time for House Seats (effective after Trump leaves Office)
There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019 (from Census Bureau), which would be released around December 2019.
I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.
First column is Population in the 2010 Census. As reported in 2018.
Second column is current Population (est 1 July 2018). As reported in 2018.
Third column is Projected Population for 2019.
Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.
The first 2 columns are the data reported in 2018 for 2010 Census and 2018 Estimate. Then my projected 2019 population, and amount of change. Then the 4 sets of data as reported in 2019.
ST 2010 Pop 2018 Pop | 2019 Projd/chng | 2019 data 2010, 2018, 2019/change
CA 37252895 39557045 | 39931485/374440 | 37253956 39461588 39512223/50,635
TX 25146105 28701846 | 29200660/498814 | 25145561 28628666 28995881/367215
NY 19378087 19542209 | 19617851/75,642 | 19378102 19530351 19453561/-76790
FL 18804623 21299325 | 21531733/232408 | 18801310 21244317 21477737/233420
IL 12831549 12741080 | 12745989/04,909 | 12830632 12723071 12671821/-51250
PA 12702887 12807060 | 12957820/150760 | 12702379 12800922 12801989/01,067
OH 11536725 11689442 | 11832858/143416 | 11536504 11676341 11689100/12,759
MI 09884129 09998915 | 09921866/-77049 | 09883640 09984072 09986857/02,785
GA 09688681 10519475 | 10497522/-21953 | 09687653 10511131 10617423/106292
NC 09535692 10383620 | 10547657/164037 | 09535483 10381615 10488084/106469
NJ 08791936 09032873 | 09108816/25,943 | 08791894 08886025 08882190/-3,835
VA 08001045 08517685 | 08591030/7
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