The Mid-Term Elections 2018
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Wednesday, September 18, 2019 08:06
VIEWED: 41317
PAGE 5 of 6
Quote:So the $3 Trillion maturing are from Obamanomics spending explosion?
Originally posted by second:Quote:The Federal government will borrow $4.3 trillion in 2018. $3 trillion of that is debt that is simply debt being rolled over because the bond, note, or bill matured in 2018. Subtract $3 from $4.3 to get $1.3 trillion
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/30/us-borrowing-pace-top-trill
ion-this-year-highest-since/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.763a00d4571b
What the heck is net marketable borrowing?
in “net marketable borrowing”.
That $1.3 trillion goes into Trump’s bank account and my account as tax cuts,
which is nice for me, Trump, and his friends.Quote:https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm535
Privately-held "net marketable borrowing" excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA), but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions.
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Updating with new polls:
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.
435 Seats up for Election.
The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.
Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.
Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.
If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.
Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.
If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.
Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.
The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17
The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35 DJT
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39 DJT
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34. HC
The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39 HC
CA-49 Open Dem 7%, 51-44 HC
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38 HC
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38 DJT
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39 HC
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC
The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34 DJT
The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45 DJT
The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 2% 48-46 HC
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39 DJT
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44 HC
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 46-45 DJT
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 Dem 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41 DJT
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43 DJT
VA-7 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC
If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.
Tossups add 15 R, and 12 D. This brings totals to D216 R216, with 3 Ties.
But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.
So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D216 R219.
But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be D213 R222. D212 R223.
And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be D206 R229. D205 R230.
Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.
2 days to go.
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Reposting for top of the page convenience:
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 5%, 45-40 this was moved to Tossup after this summary was originally posted
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 9%, 53-44 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48. D42 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48. D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 7%, 52-45
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 4%, 48-44
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 8%, 52-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59. D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
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Quote:Today RCP changed to D202 R196 T37.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.
There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground
They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).
RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP
6 days to go.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP
4 days to go.
2 days to go.
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Quote:No. Bonds issued by Reagan, Bush I, Bush II, and Trump, who issued Treasury bills with 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week terms. Debts Trump ran up in his first year are coming to maturity right now.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So the $3 Trillion maturing are from Obamanomics spending explosion?
President Reagan increased the debt by 186 percent. Reaganomics added $1.86 trillion. Reagan's brand of supply-side economics didn't grow the economy enough to offset the lost revenue from its tax cuts. He issued 30 year bonds that are coming to maturity right now.
George H.W. Bush added $1.554 trillion, a 54-percent increase from the $2.857 trillion debt at the end of Reagan's last budget, FY 1989. More debts coming to maturity right now.
President George W. Bush added $5.849 trillion. Bush increased the debt by 101 percent from where it started at $5.8 trillion on September 30, 2001. More debts coming to maturity right now.
As projected in the FY 2019 budget, Trump plans to add $4.775 trillion to the debt. Because the economy has been booming, there should be no debt. There should be a surplus. But that's not happen, is it?
www.thebalance.com/us-debt-by-president-by-dollar-and-percent-3306296
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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I saw somebody make mention which reminded me of strategy.
The Pollsters know what the real bias is, they are just not going to report it. They hope to sway some races by presenting the biased results in a way to affect the spending.
Let's say both sides Want to spend their campaign coffers on the tipping points, the tight races, 1 or 2% margin. So if the polls report those races as 8% Dem, then those are no longer viewed as the group at the tipping point. But if the races which are really going to be won by 8% for GoP are presented as 1%, then those are erroneously viewed as the tipping point group, and the GoP can waste all that cash on races which are already won. And therefore not spend cash on the races which could actually be affected.
I'm not sure if I had remembered to explain that here yet.
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Quote:You pulled that out of your ass, JewelStaiteFan. Where are your many citations, not just one or two, to prove this is not another one of your turds?
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I saw somebody make mention which reminded me of strategy.
The Pollsters know what the real bias is, they are just not going to report it. They hope to sway some races by presenting the biased results in a way to affect the spending.
Let's say both sides Want to spend their campaign coffers on the tipping points, the tight races, 1 or 2% margin. So if the polls report those races as 8% Dem, then those are no longer viewed as the group at the tipping point. But if the races which are really going to be won by 8% for GoP are presented as 1%, then those are erroneously viewed as the tipping point group, and the GoP can waste all that cash on races which are already won. And therefore not spend cash on the races which could actually be affected.
I'm not sure if I had remembered to explain that here yet.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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I saw a news story which quoted 538 as of 2 November as having D217 R200 T18. Which is not what that 270towin site is showing for 538.
Sounds like pollsters are playing hide-the-results so that nobody will know what they are actually predicting, so they cannot be nailed down with their failures.
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No reason to argue about any of this at this point, I figure.
We're all going to know what the deal is in a few days.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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You forget that campaigns and parties have their own internal polling. They don't depend on publicly available results. So if there's any deliberate spin, it's all for our benefit.
Now, the internal polling conducted may or may nor be accurate. Apparently Hillary and the DNC both predicted she would win, which is why the loss came as such a PERSONAL shock to Hillary.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I saw somebody make mention which reminded me of strategy.
The Pollsters know what the real bias is, they are just not going to report it. They hope to sway some races by presenting the biased results in a way to affect the spending.
Let's say both sides Want to spend their campaign coffers on the tipping points, the tight races, 1 or 2% margin. So if the polls report those races as 8% Dem, then those are no longer viewed as the group at the tipping point. But if the races which are really going to be won by 8% for GoP are presented as 1%, then those are erroneously viewed as the tipping point group, and the GoP can waste all that cash on races which are already won. And therefore not spend cash on the races which could actually be affected.
I'm not sure if I had remembered to explain that here yet.
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Why doesn't this graph show Iraq and Afghanistan war spending, which was going full tilt in the early 2000's? Something's not right.
tic tac
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Quote:Part of the reason I asked about it.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Why doesn't this graph show Iraq and Afghanistan war spending, which was going full tilt in the early 2000's? Something's not right.
tic tac
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I am interested if this Election will follow or buck the trend.
Since 1992, Mid-terms have Averaged a 17 Seat gain in the House for Republicans.
Excluding the Rock-The-Vote mistake, it's been a 27 Seat gain each Mid-term on average.
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Updating with new polls:
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.
435 Seats up for Election.
The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.
Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.
Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.
If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.
Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.
If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.
Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.
The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17
The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35 DJT
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39 DJT
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34. HC
The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39 HC
CA-49 Open Dem 7%, 51-44 HC
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38 HC
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38 DJT
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39 HC
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC
The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34 DJT
The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45 DJT
The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 2% 48-46 HC
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39 DJT
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44 HC
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 46-45 DJT
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 GoP 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41 DJT
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43 DJT
VA-7 GoP 2%, 46-44 DJT
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC
If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.
Tossups add 17 R, and 10 D. This brings totals to D214 R218, with 3 Ties.
But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.
So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D214 R221.
But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be D213 R222. D212 R223.
And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be D206 R229. D205 R230.
Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.
2 days to go.
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Quote:Today RCP changed to D202 R196 T37.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.
There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground
They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).
RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP
6 days to go.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP
4 days to go.
2 days to go.
And by the end of the day RCP changed to D202 R195 T38.
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I will admit that I learned something this Election season. Or, at least, reminded myself of it.
I normally don't track the polls much before Elections, just hear as bout them on MSM, look closely if something sounds off. I already understand what is going to be the result, once I learned decades ago how to translate them.
But the last few weeks I have been tracking them for this thread.
I've learned that this is a tedious and boring task. It is mind numbing - and I love Math (although not accounting). Reading all these lies all the time is depressing, probably why I haven't been subjecting myself to it each season.
I had kind of forgotten about this mental attitude warfare.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I will admit that I learned something this Election season. Or, at least, reminded myself of it.
I normally don't track the polls much before Elections, just hear as bout them on MSM, look closely if something sounds off. I already understand what is going to be the result, once I learned decades ago how to translate them.
But the last few weeks I have been tracking them for this thread.
I've learned that this is a tedious and boring task. It is mind numbing - and I love Math (although not accounting). Reading all these lies all the time is depressing, probably why I haven't been subjecting myself to it each season.
I had kind of forgotten about this mental attitude warfare.
It sure is boring.
Really can't wait for it to be over. Then I go back to work and forget all about it until next time.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Today 538 changed to D220 R197 T18. And 193 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today RCP changed to D202 R196 T37.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP
4 days to go.
2 days to go.
And by the end of the day RCP changed to D202 R195 T38.
Cook to D210 R195 T30.
Consensus to D210 R197 T28.
Battleground changed to D190 R162 T83.
RCP to D202 R194 T39 D43 R50. And NTU to D49 R51, with all Tossups going Dem except MO. That is AZ, IN, FL, NV, MT, WV.
The Crosstab changed to 201 Dark Blue.
1 day to go.
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AFTER FAILED HACKING ATTEMPT, SOS LAUNCHES INVESTIGATION INTO GEORGIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Quote:
ATLANTA – After a failed attempt to hack the state's voter registration system, the Secretary of State's office opened an investigation into the Democratic Party of Georgia on the evening of Saturday, November 3, 2018. Federal partners, including the Department of Homeland Security and Federal Bureau of Investigation, were immediately alerted.
"While we cannot comment on the specifics of an ongoing investigation, I can confirm that the Democratic Party of Georgia is under investigation for possible cyber crimes," said Candice Broce, Press Secretary. "We can also confirm that no personal data was breached and our system remains secure."
Source: Official Georgia .gov Website
http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/general/after_failed_hacking_attempt_sos_l
aunches_investigation_into_georgia_democratic_party_
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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One thing I've noticed is that there is hardly any polling data to go by with a lot of these house races, and a lot of it is so old as to be irrelevant at this point.
Just as a random "toss up" example of this, I'm looking at California's 10th District now here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ca/california_10th
_district_denham_vs_harder-6360.html
Quote:
NY Times/Siena 10/21 - 10/25 501 LV 4.9 47 45 Harder +2
Berkeley IGS 9/16 - 9/23 726 LV 5.0 50 45 Harder +5
Only two polls? Really?
Here's Arizona's 1st District: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/az/arizona_1st_dis
trict_rogers_vs_ohalleran-6342.html
There isn't a single poll on record! I guess we're just guessing here.
No wonder Nate Silver is coming out in the 11th hour basically saying that everything is a toss up. These were literally just the first two random races that I clicked on in the Toss Up category. The third one that I clicked on was Minnesota's 7th District and there's no polling data on record for that one either.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I am a little surprised the polls have not shifted in the past weeks.
This usually means the Pollsters are doubling down on their bias. Then they will be "surprised" at Election Day results.
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What I'm seeing is quite a few of these races have predicted decisions on them but aren't supported by any polling data whatsoever.
I can't wrap my head around any "scientific" basis of these predictions when there is literally no data to back them up at all.
Can somebody explain this?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:You are supposed to just believe.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What I'm seeing is quite a few of these races have predicted decisions on them but aren't supported by any polling data whatsoever.
I can't wrap my head around any "scientific" basis of these predictions when there is literally no data to back them up at all.
Can somebody explain this?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Now you are lifting the curtain, which is verboten.
What do you think will be the D/R totals in Senate after the Election? House?
Did you notice Fienstein has 9% lead with less than 40% of the vote? That would be great for America if she loses.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:You are supposed to just believe.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What I'm seeing is quite a few of these races have predicted decisions on them but aren't supported by any polling data whatsoever.
I can't wrap my head around any "scientific" basis of these predictions when there is literally no data to back them up at all.
Can somebody explain this?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Now you are lifting the curtain, which is verboten.
What do you think will be the D/R totals in Senate after the Election? House?
Did you notice Fienstein has 9% lead with less than 40% of the vote? That would be great for America if she loses.
My prediction for the Senate is 54R/46D.
The house is a crap shoot. I can't even give a prediction there at all based off of the lack of data. I've got to give it a complete 50/50. Since a lot of the predictions right now weigh heavily in favor of Democrats even thought there is no actual data backing them up, I can only say that their optimism is largely unfounded. They may very well take control of the house, but it would be by a very small amount if it happens is my guess.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I kept forgetting to mention that Sean Hannity had identified races on his site, which he felt were the most critical.
These are his top 30, and I included the other data from my prior posts:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 2% 48-46 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
FL-27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
GA-7
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 46-45 DJT
NY-1
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 GoP 1%, 46-45
NC-2
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-5
VA-7 GoP 2%, 46-44 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC
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Then again....
I may have been right all along that most people intending to vote Republican in 2018 just aren't saying shit about it and we get a big surprise and the GOP picks up seats in both the house and the senate.
I don't think it's very likely that GOP house power actually increases tomorrow, but it is a possibility.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:So you are saying D217 R218? Or D218 R217?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:You are supposed to just believe.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What I'm seeing is quite a few of these races have predicted decisions on them but aren't supported by any polling data whatsoever.
I can't wrap my head around any "scientific" basis of these predictions when there is literally no data to back them up at all.
Can somebody explain this?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Now you are lifting the curtain, which is verboten.
What do you think will be the D/R totals in Senate after the Election? House?
Did you notice Fienstein has 9% lead with less than 40% of the vote? That would be great for America if she loses.
My prediction for the Senate is 54R/46D.
The house is a crap shoot. I can't even give a prediction there at all based off of the lack of data. I've got to give it a complete 50/50. Since a lot of the predictions right now weigh heavily in favor of Democrats even thought there is no actual data backing them up, I can only say that their optimism is largely unfounded. They may very well take control of the house, but it would be by a very small amount if it happens is my guess.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Hey 6ix, can you quote this post? (Or whoever gets to it first)
I will say D40 R60 and D at least 185 in the House, R at least 230.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Hey 6ix, can you quote this post? (Or whoever gets to it first)
I will say D40 R60 and D at least 185 in the House, R at least 230.
There you go. Set in stone. lol
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:So you are saying D217 R218? Or D218 R217?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My prediction for the Senate is 54R/46D.
The house is a crap shoot. I can't even give a prediction there at all based off of the lack of data. I've got to give it a complete 50/50. Since a lot of the predictions right now weigh heavily in favor of Democrats even thought there is no actual data backing them up, I can only say that their optimism is largely unfounded. They may very well take control of the house, but it would be by a very small amount if it happens is my guess.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
That's kind of in the 50/50 thing. I don't know what to think because there is no data supporting a lot of the races. As in Zero data.
It's blatantly obvious when you know this that the MSM and the websites tracking this are full of shit, but I'm not going to right a wrong with another wrong and pretend to know what is actually going to happen tomorrow. It's really a matter of how many lazy people get up off their ass tomorrow and how many don't.
I think it's ultimately good for the Republicans in 2020 either way, so I'm not even going to put myself out there and give a house prediction other than to say that I don't think there is going to be any huge lead by Democrats if they do manage to eek out a small victory.
I think they're delusional if they believe they're going to pull off a 39 seat gain.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Thanks.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Hey 6ix, can you quote this post? (Or whoever gets to it first)
I will say D40 R60 and D at least 185 in the House, R at least 230.
There you go. Set in stone. lol
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:I think this means they have succeeded in warping your mind.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:So you are saying D217 R218? Or D218 R217?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My prediction for the Senate is 54R/46D.
The house is a crap shoot. I can't even give a prediction there at all based off of the lack of data. I've got to give it a complete 50/50. Since a lot of the predictions right now weigh heavily in favor of Democrats even thought there is no actual data backing them up, I can only say that their optimism is largely unfounded. They may very well take control of the house, but it would be by a very small amount if it happens is my guess.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
That's kind of in the 50/50 thing. I don't know what to think because there is no data supporting a lot of the races. As in Zero data.
It's blatantly obvious when you know this that the MSM and the websites tracking this are full of shit, but I'm not going to right a wrong with another wrong and pretend to know what is actually going to happen tomorrow. It's really a matter of how many lazy people get up off their ass tomorrow and how many don't.
I think it's ultimately good for the Republicans in 2020 either way, so I'm not even going to put myself out there and give a house prediction other than to say that I don't think there is going to be any huge lead by Democrats if they do manage to eek out a small victory.
I think they're delusional if they believe they're going to pull off a 39 seat gain.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I guess we'll see tomorrow.
And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:No feels.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.
And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.
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Quote:Today 538 changed to D220 R197 T18. And 193 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today RCP changed to D202 R196 T37.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP
4 days to go.
2 days to go.
And by the end of the day RCP changed to D202 R195 T38.
Cook to D210 R195 T30.
Consensus to D210 R197 T28.
Battleground changed to D190 R162 T83.
RCP to D202 R194 T39 D43 R50. And NTU to D49 R51, with all Tossups going Dem except MO. That is AZ, IN, FL, NV, MT, WV.
The Crosstab changed to 201 Dark Blue.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R50 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D220 R197 T18 D48 R50 538
D210 R195 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D202 R194 T39 D43 R50 RCP
1 day to go.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:No feels.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.
And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.
My point being that there are numbers you have about the house are pulled out of thin air because a lot of those races don't have any polling data whatsoever.
BTW... I'm sure on your last post you have the D and R counts mixed up for Optimus.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Those numbers for Optimus have been posted on 270towin for about a week without change.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:No feels.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.
And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.
My point being that there are numbers you have about the house are pulled out of thin air because a lot of those races don't have any polling data whatsoever.
BTW... I'm sure on your last post you have the D and R counts mixed up for Optimus.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I only posted leads and percentages from polls of each race. Mostly from that site, or RCP. Some I had to use search engine. I did not post any figures unless a poll stated those numbers.
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Quote:Today Crystal Ball changed to D48 R52. I have not notated tracking of that pundit, but 52 is the highest number from that site. They have IN, MO going GoP. And also D229 R206.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D220 R197 T18. And 193 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP
4 days to go.
Cook to D210 R195 T30.
Consensus to D210 R197 T28.
Battleground changed to D190 R162 T83.
RCP to D202 R194 T39 D43 R50. And NTU to D49 R51, with all Tossups going Dem except MO. That is AZ, IN, FL, NV, MT, WV.
The Crosstab changed to 201 Dark Blue.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R50 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D220 R197 T18 D48 R50 538
D210 R195 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D202 R194 T39 D43 R50 RCP
1 day to go.
And RCP is now D203 R194 T38 D43 R49.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Those numbers for Optimus have been posted on 270towin for about a week without change.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:No feels.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.
And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.
My point being that there are numbers you have about the house are pulled out of thin air because a lot of those races don't have any polling data whatsoever.
BTW... I'm sure on your last post you have the D and R counts mixed up for Optimus.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I only posted leads and percentages from polls of each race. Mostly from that site, or RCP. Some I had to use search engine. I did not post any figures unless a poll stated those numbers.
RCP shows quite a few of the races without any polling data whatsoever, is my point.
I don't see how they were getting any numbers at all on races without polls, so for anybody else to say that they have different numbers without any data is just as much of a joke, IMO.
My remark about Optimus is that you've regularly shown them giving Republicans a solid lead in the house, but in your last post you show them giving the Democrats a 10 seat advantage.
Did they flip last minute, or was that a typo?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:As noted in the summaries I have provided, the big flip for Optimus occurred on 23 October.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Those numbers for Optimus have been posted on 270towin for about a week without change.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:No feels.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.
And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.
My point being that there are numbers you have about the house are pulled out of thin air because a lot of those races don't have any polling data whatsoever.
BTW... I'm sure on your last post you have the D and R counts mixed up for Optimus.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I only posted leads and percentages from polls of each race. Mostly from that site, or RCP. Some I had to use search engine. I did not post any figures unless a poll stated those numbers.
RCP shows quite a few of the races without any polling data whatsoever, is my point.
I don't see how they were getting any numbers at all on races without polls, so for anybody else to say that they have different numbers without any data is just as much of a joke, IMO.
My remark about Optimus is that you've regularly shown them giving Republicans a solid lead in the house, but in your last post you show them giving the Democrats a 10 seat advantage.
Did they flip last minute, or was that a typo?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Election Day.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D220 R197 T18. And 193 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
Cook to D210 R195 T30.
Consensus to D210 R197 T28.
Battleground changed to D190 R162 T83.
RCP to D202 R194 T39 D43 R50. And NTU to D49 R51, with all Tossups going Dem except MO. That is AZ, IN, FL, NV, MT, WV.
The Crosstab changed to 201 Dark Blue.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R50 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D220 R197 T18 D48 R50 538
D210 R195 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D202 R194 T39 D43 R50 RCP
1 day to go.
Today Crystal Ball changed to D48 R52. I have not notated tracking of that pundit, but 52 is the highest number from that site. They have IN, MO going GoP. And also D229 R206.
And RCP is now D203 R194 T38 D43 R49.
And RCP NTU changed to D47 R53.
Optimus is D210 R194 T31
Daily Kos is D206 R200 T29
Politico is D216 R197 T22
CNN is D207 R197 T31
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Updated with new polls:
Michigan Senate. Stabenow 3%, 49-46.
Montana Senate. Dem 1%, 50-49.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 3%, 49-46
WV 5%, 45-40 this was moved to Tossup after this summary was originally posted
MT 1%, 50-49 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 9%, 53-44 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48. D42 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48. D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 7%, 52-45
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 4%, 48-44
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 8%, 52-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59. D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
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Updating with a few polls I missed:
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.
435 Seats up for Election.
The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.
Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.
Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.
If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.
Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.
If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.
Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.
The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17
The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35 DJT
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39 DJT
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34. HC
The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39 HC
CA-49 Open Dem 7%, 51-44 HC
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38 HC
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38 DJT
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39 HC
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC
The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34 DJT
The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45 DJT
The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 2% 48-46 HC
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-2 Dem 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44 HC
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 46-45 DJT
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 GoP 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41 DJT
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43 DJT
VA-7 GoP 2%, 46-44 DJT
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC
If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.
Tossups add 17 R, and 10 D. This brings totals to D214 R218, with 3 Ties.
But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.
So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D214 R221.
But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be D213 R222. D212 R223.
And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be D206 R229. D205 R230.
Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.
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Man....
Looking at the map starting to get filled in and it really kind of sucks having to go into work tonight. Something about tracking the colors and the percentages really scratches my OCD itch.
Then again, I've had about enough of this race. I'm looking forward to exorcising my demons on 120 palettes of water and soda. Looks like if I don't cut back on my eating I'm going to pack a few pounds on my days off when it's cold, so I've got a little extra gas in the tank tonight. 
Good luck to everybody, and just realize it's all a rigged game and the results don't really matter at the end of the day. Try not to burn anything down, attacking people or hurting yourself if the numbers don't go the way you want them.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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750,000 votes in for Indiana now and that's only around 33%. That sounds like a huge turnout to me for a mid-term election since there are 4,536,903 total registered voters.
......
Yup. Just checked and saw that in 2014, Indiana was dead last in the country for voter turnout with only 28% of registered voters actually voting.
We're looking at roughly 49% voter turnout in Indiana for 2018 compared to 28% in 2014.
Donnelly is so screwed. He's down around 14 points now, with CNN updating the percent counted to 40% as I wrote this part.
RCP showed Donnelley with an aggregate of 1.3 pts in favor of Donnelly. This might not be indicative of the trending in both the house and the senate across the nation, but it's fairly safe to say at this point that the polls were VERY wrong on this one.
-------
On the House front in Indiana:
No change. None was really expected. Any of the races that aren't already projected as GOP wins lean heavily in favor of the GOP with at least 20% of the vote in. Only Indiana's 2nd district was even on the map as "Likely GOP" and with 20% reporting..... Nevermind... Just looked again and now 73% is in and CNN declared the GOP incumbent the winner.
The two districts which were Democrat weren't on anybody's radar as possible flips, and they're both already easily going to remain Democrat. That's Gary and Indianapolis for ya.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Looking at that 270towin Live coverage map is funny.
They already called VA, VT Senate for Dems. But then they retracted those, leaving every Senate race uncalled.
Boy, they got gumption.
At Fox News Website, The FL Senate had 93% in with 13K vote lead (GoP), and now they still have 93% in, but lead is 25K.
I heard FL has a record number of Absentee Ballots, so that might not get called for days.
MI, NJ Senate are already going to GoP, without voting results posted.
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With East Coast polls closed, 270 had only a D40 R23 Lead in the House. But then they retracted to D22 R23.
Dems should have hoped for a huge pile of House Seats from the East Coast. Because they're gonna lose a pile between the Coasts.
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I was listening to a radio show which transferred to Fox News Radio coverage. That show is overrun by Libtards, all whining about how All the Dems are losing everywhere.
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Tonight had the worst news coverage I've ever seen.
All major networks had Election coverage instead of normal programming. Websites are apparently frozen, locked up, or not updated.
The network TV coverage was adamant in refusing to show any maps of the nation with the races won or lost. They all harped on and on about any minor Dem gain, and outright ignored any races won by GoP.
As cheerleaders for Dems, MSM was adequate, but they completely abdicated any pretense of reporting any news.
At this point I have no idea who won or lost where.
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We watched Air Disasters while votes were being tallied.
Quote:
Democrats Win Control Of US House As Republicans Keep Senate
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-06/first-exit-polls-arrive-all-
eyes-are-indiana-and-kentucky
That means that Nunes' investigation will be stalled. I hope the Senate can take over what he was doing. The House will probably dog Trump over what I think of as trivia, but I also hope Trump can shake that off and continue with his meetings with Putin and Xi Jinping and his other (peace) initiatives and immigration policies.
Aside from that, what might make a big difference in 2020 is who controls the state legislatures and governorships, because THAT will make a difference for redistricting when the Census results come out. I need to look at when (in the year) redistricting happens as opposed to when the elections happen.
Gonna go look at the results for my state and hometown. I got called by a volunteer asking me if I had any questions for XXX, a candidate for city council, and I said I wanted to know was her thoughts on McMansions, and he said ... "That's a good question, I'll put her on", so I got to talk to her directly! She won my vote.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND
America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876
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Here I'll give some local news.
WI is reporting a record number of Absentee Ballots, over 540K, compared to previous mark of 374K in 2014.
With 78% of the Gov race counted, Evers holds a 1,000 vote lead, which is likely to shift to a Walker lead in the remaining 23% of votes. The Absentee Ballots will likely drag this out beyond tonight.
The AG race also has a 2,000 vote lead for Dem, among 2 million votes totalled so far.
Baldwin was declared winner a few minutes after polls closed. Voting results have still not confirmed this Senate race.
House Seats for 6th and 8th were won by incumbents, as expected.
No upsets yet in WI, from what I've heard. Like I said, available news is abysmal.
The Fox Network anchors are lobbying for their Lib candidates to keep their leads.
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Quote:Census occurs during 2020.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
We watched Air Disasters while votes were being tallied.Quote:
Democrats Win Control Of US House As Republicans Keep Senate
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-06/first-exit-polls-arrive-all-
eyes-are-indiana-and-kentucky
That means that Nunes' investigation will be stalled. I hope the Senate can take over what he was doing. The House will probably dog Trump over what I think of as trivia, but I also hope Trump can shake that off and continue with his meetings with Putin and Xi Jinping and his other (peace) initiatives and immigration policies.
Aside from that, what might make a big difference in 2020 is who controls the state legislatures and governorships, because THAT will make a difference for redistricting when the Census results come out. I need to look at when (in the year) redistricting happens as opposed to when the elections happen.
Gonna go look at the results for my state and hometown. I got called by a volunteer asking me if I had any questions for XXX, a candidate for city council, and I said I wanted to know was her thoughts on McMansions, and he said ... "That's a good question, I'll put her on", so I got to talk to her directly! She won my vote.
Results tallied and apportionment announced, how many seats per each State, by early 2021.
For races in 2022, the districts must be drawn before the filing deadlines can be due.
So, unless the filing deadlines are late, Districts must be drawn by the end of 2021. Most States do not change legislatures during the calendar year of 2021.
2022 will be the first Election affected by Census and subsequent redistricting. The Census also affects how large each district will be, and therefore what shape they will be.
Edit: USC Title 13 requires Census totals to be reported 9 months after the Census date. Recently the Census date has been 1 April, thus the obligated total date was 31 December.
Title 2 requires that within 22 days of the first day of the new Congress (in 2021) the Governors of each State be notified.
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Sounds like a repeat of 2006. Trump is the new MTV, bringing a huge voter surge, which draws the most illiterate, uneducated, gullible, immature voters to sway the Election.
The so-called Tossups for Senate were:
FL - R
IN - R
TN - R
TX - R
MO - R
MT - R
AZ - R
ND - R
NV - NC
WV - D
NJ - D
That sounds like it will be D44 R56.
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Well... Nothing here was a surprise to me. That's what you get when you don't make outlandish claims that have no data to support them.
Looks like I was also right about Indiana. The final number will be somewhere around the high 40% for registered voter turnout, although might not reach 49%.
Donnelly is out. He's one of the three states so far that have been considered flipped to GOP in the senate.
Looks like 26 house seats counted as flipped so far from GOP to Dem, with 2 flipping the other way.
14 seats left. They would have to win 13 of them to get the 39 seat gain that the MSM predicted. However, if the GOP were to win the 14 remaining then we'd be looking at 222D to 215R, which is right around what I was saying would happen.
Hardly a blue wave, but I'm glad it happened really.
Now the Dems can either do something about Trump or come out and say that he didn't do anything wrong (And boy do I think they'll be giving a lot of those seats back in 2020 if Trump is still president by then).
If the GOP kept control of the house, all we'd be hearing about the next 2 years is how unfair it is that Trump didn't get impeached because the GOP had all the control. And like I said before, several times, the Dems taking the house almost ensures that Trump gets re-elected in 2020.
And just so none of the Lefty goons in here start saying that I'm backpedaling and making excuses for how last night went, I invite you to look through my posts over the last week saying that this is what I expected to happen.
Sorry for your loss, JSF.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Remaining key House races and where they currently stand (according to CNN):
LIKELY DEM:
Washington 08: 52.9% D, 47.1% R - Unknown percentage counted
California 25: 51.3% D, 48.7% R - 100% counted (not sure why this isn't called)
California 48: 50.7% D, 49.3% R - 100% counted (not sure why this isn't called)
Utah 04: 51.3% D, 48.7R - 100% counted (not sure why this isn't called)
Georgia 06: 50.5% D, 49.5% $ - 100% counted (not sure why this isn't called)
California 49: 51.9% D, 48.1% R - 85% counted
LIKELY GOP:
California 10: 50.6% R, 49.4% D - 100% counted (not sure why this isn't called)
California 39: 51.3% R, 48.7% D - 100% counted (not sure why this isn't called)
California 45: 51.7% R, 48.3% D - 100% counted (not sure why this isn't called)
Georgia 07: 50.5% R, 49.5% D - 100% counted (not sure why this isn't called)
Minnesota 01: 50.3% R, 49.7% D - 99% counted
North Carolina 09: 49.4% R, 48.8% D - 97% counted
New Jersey 03: 49.8% R, 48.9% D - 97% counted
TOSS UPS:
Maine 02: 46.8% D, 45.2% R - 39% counted
This puts the likely outcome at 228D to 206R with 1 toss up.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Remaining key Senate races and where they stand (according to CNN):
LIKELY GOP:
Montana: 48.8% R, 48.3% D - 95% counted
Florida: 50.2% R, 49.8% D - 99% counted
Mississippi Special Election: 41.5% R, 40.6% D - 99% counted
TOSS UP:
Arizona 49.3% R, 48.4% D - 75% counted.
Likely Senate Outcome: 54R, 45D - 1 Toss Up.
I'd like to add that my prediction for the senate was 54R and 46D.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:NV must have had a pile of Absentee Ballots at the end going all to Dem. Seems that is what happened in WI - Walker was ahead, before 45,000 Absentee Ballots in Milwaukee CO were counted, probably all those Chicago voters, in alphabetical order.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Remaining key Senate races and where they stand (according to CNN):
LIKELY GOP:
Montana: 48.8% R, 48.3% D - 95% counted
Florida: 50.2% R, 49.8% D - 99% counted
Mississippi Special Election: 41.5% R, 40.6% D - 99% counted
TOSS UP:
Arizona 49.3% R, 48.4% D - 75% counted.
Likely Senate Outcome: 54R, 45D - 1 Toss Up.
I'd like to add that my prediction for the senate was 54R and 46D.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
All of those pundits certain D would have 48 but R would not have more than 50, they might have been biased.
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Yep, all these Sanctuary Cities of Illegal Aliens has doomed WI. Stuck with the worst Senator and lost the best Governor we may have ever had. We might lose FOXCONN now.
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Quote:OK, I had felt unease but didn't really see clearly where this would lead - but it is certainly Trump's social media which has served to engage the youth vote, instead of MTV.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like a repeat of 2006. Trump is the new MTV, bringing a huge voter surge, which draws the most illiterate, uneducated, gullible, immature voters to sway the Election.
The so-called Tossups for Senate were:
FL - R
IN - R
TN - R
TX - R
MO - R
MT - R
AZ - R
ND - R
NV - NC
WV - D
NJ - D
That sounds like it will be D44 R56.
Unless Trump stops the tweeter biz, the results will be even worse (for Conservatives) in 2020. If Dems find a credible candidate for 2020 while Trump continues the tweeter storm, he will be the cause of his own downfall. His only hope is if Dems prop up somebody as horrifying as Hilliary.
I had considered the tweeter snippets to be distraction, a sidebar. But that is the purview of the most brainwashed, intolerant, least knowledgeable of the Electorate, and Trump spurred them to vote because he has never understood the dynamic.
So, no real reason for Trump to not be Impeached, but for Senate to convict will depend upon how many Trump has ticked off.
America will be better off if Pelosi does not realize the Political reason to not Impeach Trump is to allow him to implode. So here is hoping she goes for it. Trump is likely toast either way, Pence would be harder to attack, but Trump could collapse the House and Senate races for 2020, which do not favor GoP.
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Some notes about voter surge, which resulted in this disaster.
In Wisconsin:
2014 Governor race had 2.4 million votes cast.
2016 President race had almost 3 million votes cast.
2018 Governor race had over 2.67 million votes cast, last I saw.
That is a huge turnout for a Mid-term. It is no mystery that this results in a Dem shift.
That extra 270,000 votes explains both the Senate results, and the State races like Gov and AG.
The counting of Military Ballots is apparently not completed in WI.
And golly gee, there were apparently thousands of Ballots which were "damaged" and had to be "re-created" (most likely by Liberals). Surprise, surprise.
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lol, wow dude. Don't go drinking yourself into a coma in your bout of depression here. You're pretty much acting right now the way that I thought T would be if the house had gone the other way.
Absolutely none of what you just said is going to happen, just like none of your wildly inaccurate predictions about the 2018 midterms happened.
Go hang out with some friends. You need to blow off some steam.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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going to try to get to this later when final results are in
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Updated with new polls:
Michigan Senate. Stabenow 3%, 49-46.
Montana Senate. Dem 1%, 50-49.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 3%, 49-46
WV 5%, 45-40 this was moved to Tossup after this summary was originally posted
MT 1%, 50-49 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 9%, 53-44 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus isD45 R48.D42 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would beD41 R48.D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 7%, 52-45
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 4%, 48-44
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 8%, 52-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could beD41 R59.D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
going to try to get to this later when final results are inQuote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Updated with new polls:
Michigan Senate. Stabenow 3%, 49-46.
Montana Senate. Dem 1%, 50-49.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 3%, 49-46
WV 5%, 45-40 this was moved to Tossup after this summary was originally posted
MT 1%, 50-49 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 9%, 53-44 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus isD45 R48.D42 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would beD41 R48.D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 7%, 52-45
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 4%, 48-44
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 8%, 52-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could beD41 R59.D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
Yes. I am planning a summary with results, but accurate results are a bit hard to find right now.
Plus I'm busy with other things right now.
If that extra 11% turnout of Lib voters in WI is representative of other States, that would explain why results shifted Left of some Polling.
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Quote:I may be a little wrong about part of this.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:OK, I had felt unease but didn't really see clearly where this would lead - but it is certainly Trump's social media which has served to engage the youth vote, instead of MTV.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like a repeat of 2006. Trump is the new MTV, bringing a huge voter surge, which draws the most illiterate, uneducated, gullible, immature voters to sway the Election.
The so-called Tossups for Senate were:
FL - R
IN - R
TN - R
TX - R
MO - R
MT - R
AZ - R
ND - R
NV - NC
WV - D
NJ - D
That sounds like it will be D44 R56.
Unless Trump stops the tweeter biz, the results will be even worse (for Conservatives) in 2020. If Dems find a credible candidate for 2020 while Trump continues the tweeter storm, he will be the cause of his own downfall. His only hope is if Dems prop up somebody as horrifying as Hilliary.
I had considered the tweeter snippets to be distraction, a sidebar. But that is the purview of the most brainwashed, intolerant, least knowledgeable of the Electorate, and Trump spurred them to vote because he has never understood the dynamic.
So, no real reason for Trump to not be Impeached, but for Senate to convict will depend upon how many Trump has ticked off.
America will be better off if Pelosi does not realize the Political reason to not Impeach Trump is to allow him to implode. So here is hoping she goes for it. Trump is likely toast either way, Pence would be harder to attack, but Trump could collapse the House and Senate races for 2020, which do not favor GoP.
Now that Hilliary and her Clinton Cadre of Criminal Cohorts can see that they have gotten away with all their crimes, and easily snookered American lemmings, she might feel ready to take on Trump in a rematch. If she shoehorns and jury-rigs her way to the nomination, maybe Trump can win again.
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Had to drive through the ghetto today to get home because of an accident on the expressway.
Thought it was interesting to see all the signs up for the election. They weren't actually for any candidate. They all just said "Vote Democrat November 6th".
One of the rare occasions I wish I had a cell phone with a camera.
I wonder how long those signs are going to stay up.
I'm sure there not going anywhere soon. If I remember to bring my tablet with me I'll take that route home again tomorrow and snap some pics.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Yup, the uninformed and gullible must be told there is an Election imminent, and how they must vote.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Had to drive through the ghetto today to get home because of an accident on the expressway.
Thought it was interesting to see all the signs up for the election. They weren't actually for any candidate. They all just said "Vote Democrat November 6th".
One of the rare occasions I wish I had a cell phone with a camera.
I wonder how long those signs are going to stay up.
I'm sure there not going anywhere soon. If I remember to bring my tablet with me I'll take that route home again tomorrow and snap some pics.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
The Democrat Voter in a nutshell. Not anybody who is aware or knowledgeable.
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Quote:Now the facts are leaking out.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Some notes about voter surge, which resulted in this disaster.
In Wisconsin:
2014 Governor race had 2.4 million votes cast.
2016 President race had almost 3 million votes cast.
2018 Governor race had over 2.67 million votes cast, last I saw.
That is a huge turnout for a Mid-term. It is no mystery that this results in a Dem shift.
That extra 270,000 votes explains both the Senate results, and the State races like Gov and AG.
The counting of Military Ballots is apparently not completed in WI.
And golly gee, there were apparently thousands of Ballots which were "damaged" and had to be "re-created" (most likely by Liberals). Surprise, surprise.
After waiting for the Statewide totals to come in (to find out how many Ballots had to be manufactured), the EARLY VOTING Ballots of Milwaukee started to get counted, after Walker had won the honest votes. And SHAZAAM! all of these Ballots were "damaged" and needed to be "re-created" in the heart of Libtard Milwaukee.
45,000 uncounted Ballots. All going to Dems, looked like all straight tickets. Probably in alphabetical order, or in sequence of cemetary plots.
Yep, Standard Operating Practice for Democrat Election Fraud. Although you might think they develop a new method of Election Fraud, it is more amazing that the Honest Electorate puts up with this Criminal Fraud.
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Quote:And the same tactics are happening in Broward and Palm Beach Counties where Democrat Criminals are toiling feverishly to steal all Florida Elections. They are manufacturing votes in secret and sorting which votes they want to count and which to ignore/discard.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Now the facts are leaking out.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Some notes about voter surge, which resulted in this disaster.
In Wisconsin:
2014 Governor race had 2.4 million votes cast.
2016 President race had almost 3 million votes cast.
2018 Governor race had over 2.67 million votes cast, last I saw.
That is a huge turnout for a Mid-term. It is no mystery that this results in a Dem shift.
That extra 270,000 votes explains both the Senate results, and the State races like Gov and AG.
The counting of Military Ballots is apparently not completed in WI.
And golly gee, there were apparently thousands of Ballots which were "damaged" and had to be "re-created" (most likely by Liberals). Surprise, surprise.
After waiting for the Statewide totals to come in (to find out how many Ballots had to be manufactured), the EARLY VOTING Ballots of Milwaukee started to get counted, after Walker had won the honest votes. And SHAZAAM! all of these Ballots were "damaged" and needed to be "re-created" in the heart of Libtard Milwaukee.
45,000 uncounted Ballots. All going to Dems, looked like all straight tickets. Probably in alphabetical order, or in sequence of cemetary plots.
Yep, Standard Operating Practice for Democrat Election Fraud. Although you might think they develop a new method of Election Fraud, it is more amazing that the Honest Electorate puts up with this Criminal Fraud.
Amazingly, all votes are adding to the Dem totals.
No Fraud going on here folks.
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Quote:And the same tactic was just used to steal the AZ Election from 2 days before.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:And the same tactics are happening in Broward and Palm Beach Counties where Democrat Criminals are toiling feverishly to steal all Florida Elections. They are manufacturing votes in secret and sorting which votes they want to count and which to ignore/discard.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Now the facts are leaking out.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Some notes about voter surge, which resulted in this disaster.
In Wisconsin:
2014 Governor race had 2.4 million votes cast.
2016 President race had almost 3 million votes cast.
2018 Governor race had over 2.67 million votes cast, last I saw.
That is a huge turnout for a Mid-term. It is no mystery that this results in a Dem shift.
That extra 270,000 votes explains both the Senate results, and the State races like Gov and AG.
The counting of Military Ballots is apparently not completed in WI.
And golly gee, there were apparently thousands of Ballots which were "damaged" and had to be "re-created" (most likely by Liberals). Surprise, surprise.
After waiting for the Statewide totals to come in (to find out how many Ballots had to be manufactured), the EARLY VOTING Ballots of Milwaukee started to get counted, after Walker had won the honest votes. And SHAZAAM! all of these Ballots were "damaged" and needed to be "re-created" in the heart of Libtard Milwaukee.
45,000 uncounted Ballots. All going to Dems, looked like all straight tickets. Probably in alphabetical order, or in sequence of cemetary plots.
Yep, Standard Operating Practice for Democrat Election Fraud. Although you might think they develop a new method of Election Fraud, it is more amazing that the Honest Electorate puts up with this Criminal Fraud.
Amazingly, all votes are adding to the Dem totals.
No Fraud going on here folks.
Good thing Dems can continue Voting for 2 days after the Honest Votes have ended Voting.
Back in FL, wanna guess who Ben Nelson's Lawyer is, to coordinate the theft? Mark Elias, Hilliary's bagman for paying off FusionGPS for the Fake Dossier.
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I guess The Theft Election is the most appropriate name for this cycle.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Yup, the uninformed and gullible must be told there is an Election imminent, and how they must vote.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Had to drive through the ghetto today to get home because of an accident on the expressway.
Thought it was interesting to see all the signs up for the election. They weren't actually for any candidate. They all just said "Vote Democrat November 6th".
One of the rare occasions I wish I had a cell phone with a camera.
I wonder how long those signs are going to stay up.
I'm sure there not going anywhere soon. If I remember to bring my tablet with me I'll take that route home again tomorrow and snap some pics.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
The Democrat Voter in a nutshell. Not anybody who is aware or knowledgeable.
I just think it speaks volumes about the party and how insulting they are to the intelligence of their voter base and the intended demographic these signs were designed for.
Never in my life have I seen signs like these for either party. Personally, I don't have any respect for anybody who presses the buttons to vote for a party on either side.
These signs imply the following.
1. Don't bother educating yourself. We know reading is hard and boring.
2. Let us make the decisions for you.
3. You've already done the hard part of getting to the polling place. Now just shut your brain off and press that party line button and let us take care of the rest.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I guess The Theft Election is the most appropriate name for this cycle.
Stupid jsf. That's what you are. Wow, you're a drone.
T
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Quote:Imply my ass.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Yup, the uninformed and gullible must be told there is an Election imminent, and how they must vote.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Had to drive through the ghetto today to get home because of an accident on the expressway.
Thought it was interesting to see all the signs up for the election. They weren't actually for any candidate. They all just said "Vote Democrat November 6th".
One of the rare occasions I wish I had a cell phone with a camera.
I wonder how long those signs are going to stay up.
I'm sure there not going anywhere soon. If I remember to bring my tablet with me I'll take that route home again tomorrow and snap some pics.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
The Democrat Voter in a nutshell. Not anybody who is aware or knowledgeable.
I just think it speaks volumes about the party and how insulting they are to the intelligence of their voter base and the intended demographic these signs were designed for.
Never in my life have I seen signs like these for either party. Personally, I don't have any respect for anybody who presses the buttons to vote for a party on either side.
These signs imply the following.
1. Don't bother educating yourself. We know reading is hard and boring.
2. Let us make the decisions for you.
3. You've already done the hard part of getting to the polling place. Now just shut your brain off and press that party line button and let us take care of the rest.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
They are far too stupid to infer, and it is far too obvious to everybody who has a clue, laughing and snickering at these tards.
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Lets not forget folks, they are still counting votes across the country and the dems are still picking up seats. I'm so happy...
T
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Lets not forget folks, they are still counting votes across the country and the dems are still picking up seats. I'm so happy...
T
I didn't forget.
I already laid it out in a previous post several days ago.
Final house tally should be 229D 206R or 228D 207R, depending how Maine swings. Apparently they're counting the votes with an abacus there.
Final senate tally should be 54R 46D or 55R 45D depending on Arizona. The Arizona race seems to have swung a few points in the Dem's favor over the last few days with only 17% of the votes left to tally.
I'm actually hoping the Dems pick that one up so that my prediction for the Senate was perfect.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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The dems won many many local state legislative seats as well as gaining a majority in congress. They also came out on top in winning governorship's.
Now watch the republican senate start challenging Trump. They paid close attention to these elections. Many of them are up for reelection in two years. The senate reelection map favors the dems in 2020.
For senate republicans to continue providing cover for Trump in most races means they will lose. And if they help Trump kill the Russian investigation watch out. Protests in their home states will be brutal.
T
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The Russian investigation has been over for weeks. They learned from Comey and didn't want to drop any huge bombs like that before the elections. The "bomb" would be either he did or did not collude.
My prediction is that he didn't. Mueller should be letting us know very soon.
You're going to have to start beating that Tax Return drum again if you want to try to impeach him.
Quote:
The dems won many many local state legislative seats as well as gaining a majority in congress.
You'd have to provide some detailed information for that statement to mean anything. All I looked into or cared about was my own state and nothing changed either way here.
Quote:
They also came out on top in winning governorship's.
Nothing changed in my state here either. Personally, I don't care that Illinois has another Democrat Governor, let alone Guam.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Lets not forget folks, they are still counting votes across the country and the dems are still picking up seats. I'm so happy...
T
I didn't forget.
I already laid it out in a previous post several days ago.
Final house tally should be 229D 206R or 228D 207R, depending how Maine swings. Apparently they're counting the votes with an abacus there.
Final senate tally should be 54R 46D or 55R 45D depending on Arizona. The Arizona race seems to have swung a few points in the Dem's favor over the last few days with only 17% of the votes left to tally.
I'm actually hoping the Dems pick that one up so that my prediction for the Senate was perfect.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Endorsing Election Fraud.
I hadn't thought you would stoop that low. But you will support any Criminal activity needed to get your much desired 2nd Great Recession.
Maybe I was crazy to expect more from you.
Your glee for anarchy and chaos is disturbing.
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Last Tuesday Scott and DeSantis won Election in Florida. Since then the Criminal Democrats have stolen the Election by creating tens of thousands of Fake Votes, maybe 100,000. Now Florida is in recount, so the Democrat Criminals can manufacture even more Fake Votes.
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Quote:Endorsing Election Fraud.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Lets not forget folks, they are still counting votes across the country and the dems are still picking up seats. I'm so happy...
T
I didn't forget.
I already laid it out in a previous post several days ago.
Final house tally should be 229D 206R or 228D 207R, depending how Maine swings. Apparently they're counting the votes with an abacus there.
Final senate tally should be 54R 46D or 55R 45D depending on Arizona. The Arizona race seems to have swung a few points in the Dem's favor over the last few days with only 17% of the votes left to tally.
I'm actually hoping the Dems pick that one up so that my prediction for the Senate was perfect.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I hadn't thought you would stoop that low. But you will support any Criminal activity needed to get your much desired 2nd Great Recession.
Maybe I was crazy to expect more from you.
Your glee for anarchy and chaos is disturbing.
I see our wacko Leftist/Socialists on the board aren't the only ones who specialize on hyperbole.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
"... our wacko Leftist/Socialists on the board aren't the only ones who specialize on hyperbole."
Like THAT isn't hyperbole. The stupid sh*t you post.
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
"... our wacko Leftist/Socialists on the board aren't the only ones who specialize on hyperbole."
Like THAT isn't hyperbole. The stupid sh*t you post.
Are you, or are you not happy that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in the house of representatives now?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Or maybe the Blue Ripple followed by the Wave of Thefts.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I guess The Theft Election is the most appropriate name for this cycle.
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Quote:And I just heard today that Hilliary is gearing up her 2020 campaign. Not sure if that will survive 2 years.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I may be a little wrong about part of this.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:OK, I had felt unease but didn't really see clearly where this would lead - but it is certainly Trump's social media which has served to engage the youth vote, instead of MTV.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like a repeat of 2006. Trump is the new MTV, bringing a huge voter surge, which draws the most illiterate, uneducated, gullible, immature voters to sway the Election.
The so-called Tossups for Senate were:
FL - R
IN - R
TN - R
TX - R
MO - R
MT - R
AZ - R
ND - R
NV - NC
WV - D
NJ - D
That sounds like it will be D44 R56.
Unless Trump stops the tweeter biz, the results will be even worse (for Conservatives) in 2020. If Dems find a credible candidate for 2020 while Trump continues the tweeter storm, he will be the cause of his own downfall. His only hope is if Dems prop up somebody as horrifying as Hilliary.
I had considered the tweeter snippets to be distraction, a sidebar. But that is the purview of the most brainwashed, intolerant, least knowledgeable of the Electorate, and Trump spurred them to vote because he has never understood the dynamic.
So, no real reason for Trump to not be Impeached, but for Senate to convict will depend upon how many Trump has ticked off.
America will be better off if Pelosi does not realize the Political reason to not Impeach Trump is to allow him to implode. So here is hoping she goes for it. Trump is likely toast either way, Pence would be harder to attack, but Trump could collapse the House and Senate races for 2020, which do not favor GoP.
Now that Hilliary and her Clinton Cadre of Criminal Cohorts can see that they have gotten away with all their crimes, and easily snookered American lemmings, she might feel ready to take on Trump in a rematch. If she shoehorns and jury-rigs her way to the nomination, maybe Trump can win again.
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After Mz. Taliban was defeated last Tuesday in her race for AZ Senator, Taliban loving Democrats were able to spend the past week manufacturing Fake Ballots, and today it was announced they successfully stole the Election.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
And I just heard today that Hilliary is gearing up her 2020 campaign. Not sure if that will survive 2 years.
This would be worse for the Democrats in 2020 than if Nancy Pelosi gets speaker of the house.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:If Trump and Hilliary are still alive in 2020:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
And I just heard today that Hilliary is gearing up her 2020 campaign. Not sure if that will survive 2 years.
This would be worse for the Democrats in 2020 than if Nancy Pelosi gets speaker of the house.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Hilliary's campaign slogan is simple: Impeach Trump.
And Trump's campaign slogan is also simple: Impeach Hilliary.
Imagine the fun.
You think Stretch Pelosi won't be the next Speaker?
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Quote:OMG. I literally laughed out loud. Sad ... but true, and at the same time hysterically funny.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
If Trump and Hilliary are still alive in 2020:
Hilliary's campaign slogan is simple: Impeach Trump.
And Trump's campaign slogan is also simple: Impeach Hilliary.
Imagine the fun.
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I had not seen the campaign ads in Dane County (Madison) or Milwaukee, but they had been against the FOXCONN Project bringing in 13,000 new, hi-tech, high-paying jobs to Wisconsin - the first facility of its kind in USA - and now Tony Evers is trying to find a way to sabotage prosperity, just like they promised.
Like I had already said, Liberals voted to get rid of jobs.
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
"... our wacko Leftist/Socialists on the board aren't the only ones who specialize on hyperbole."
Like THAT isn't hyperbole. The stupid sh*t you post.
Are you, or are you not happy that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in the house of representatives now?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Fingerpointing as high art form.
Originally posted by 1kiki:Quote:OMG. I literally laughed out loud. Sad ... but true, and at the same time hysterically funny.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
If Trump and Hilliary are still alive in 2020:
Hilliary's campaign slogan is simple: Impeach Trump.
And Trump's campaign slogan is also simple: Impeach Hilliary.
Imagine the fun.
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Which races and states are still outstanding? I can't find anything with a complete summary. Can you?
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Quote:In addition to getting rid of those jobs, Gov-Elect Evers is now striving to push Kimberly-Clark out of the State, moving 800 jobs to someplace like OK or AR.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I had not seen the (Democrap) campaign ads in Dane County (Madison) or Milwaukee, but they had been against the FOXCONN Project bringing in 13,000 new, hi-tech, high-paying jobs to Wisconsin - the first facility of its kind in USA - and now Tony Evers is trying to find a way to sabotage prosperity, just like they promised.
Like I had already said, Liberals voted to get rid of jobs.
KC has been a large employer in WI. The 2 houses I own were each built as Kimberly-Clark subdivisions.
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Quote:Depends on who you ask. Democrats are still Voting in FL, GA. Dems might still be voting in those 2 Counties in AZ, but McSally conceded after winning on Election Day and only 6 days of continued Dem Voting afterwards.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Which races and states are still outstanding? I can't find anything with a complete summary. Can you?
If I was going to look, I would check Dave Leips Election Atlas and/or ballotpedia.
I'm sorry, but I am too busy at work.
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Hey, I appreciate the reply.
Have too much fun on Thanksgiving!
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Quote:Yeah, Voting was legally required to end on Election Day, but only Republicans stopped Voting when polls closed, as always.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Hey, I appreciate the reply.
Have too much fun on Thanksgiving!
So total counts are a moving target, just like The Constitution, for them.
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You definitely have been watching way too much Fox News. Plus, drinking the "company" Kool-aid is NOT recommended.
SGG
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Yeah, Voting was legally required to end on Election Day, but only Republicans stopped Voting when polls closed, as always.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Hey, I appreciate the reply.
Have too much fun on Thanksgiving!
So total counts are a moving target, just like The Constitution, for them.
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Jewels, what planet do you live on?
SGG
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Depends on who you ask. Democrats are still Voting in FL, GA. Dems might still be voting in those 2 Counties in AZ, but McSally conceded after winning on Election Day and only 6 days of continued Dem Voting afterwards.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Which races and states are still outstanding? I can't find anything with a complete summary. Can you?
If I was going to look, I would check Dave Leips Election Atlas and/or ballotpedia.
I'm sorry, but I am too busy at work.
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Crime, easy...peasy!
sgg
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Last Tuesday Scott and DeSantis won Election in Florida. Since then the Criminal Democrats have stolen the Election by creating tens of thousands of Fake Votes, maybe 100,000. Now Florida is in recount, so the Democrat Criminals can manufacture even more Fake Votes.
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Quote:Reportedly Scott and DeSantis are still the Victor's in FL, but Criminal Gillum has not conceded.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Depends on who you ask. Democrats are still Voting in FL, GA. Dems might still be voting in those 2 Counties in AZ, but McSally conceded after winning on Election Day and only 6 days of continued Dem Voting afterwards.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Which races and states are still outstanding? I can't find anything with a complete summary. Can you?
If I was going to look, I would check Dave Leips Election Atlas and/or ballotpedia.
I'm sorry, but I am too busy at work.
And the mostest bestest literate candidate that Dems found to run for Public Office, Stacy Abrams, declares she needs a "re-vote" in GA.
In WI the AG race has qualified for recount.
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