The Mid-Term Elections 2018
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Wednesday, September 18, 2019 08:06
VIEWED: 41317
PAGE 2 of 6
Quote:You mention Lamb leans more toward your interests. Not sure of all the similars.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think that GOPers here should remember that DEMOCRATS are NOT YOUR ENEMY. It very much depends on what the person ran on.
Conor Lamb not only said that he wouldn't support Pelosi,Quote:http://freebeacon.com/politics/democrat-special-election-nominee-conor
A hand-picked Democratic nominee running in a Pennsylvania special election in March said Monday morning that he wouldn't support Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) if elected.
-lamb-goes-anti-pelosi/
he is a pro-gun https://heavy.com/news/2018/03/conor-lamb-guns-gun-control-position/ anti-abortion Democrat who is also for
jobs
infrastructural reinvestment
unions
https://conorlamb.com/priorities/
Although I disagree with some of his positions, he's closer to my leanings than the GOP.
Lamb is a young, photogenic campaigner. Saccone is an older guy with a history of being against unions, in a highly union-friendly state. Like all politicians, we should watch Lamb's commitment to his stated core issues once he gets in Congress. The power structure of both parties rewards followers with plum committee appointments and re-election assistance. Many a fiery candidate has gotten into office only to soften and eventually be re-molded into the shape of their party's money-handlers. If that happens, it merely (and once again) demonstrates the necessity of third, fourth, and fifth parties.
But Trump campaigned against him, Trump seemed to consider Saccone his puppet.
If Lamb can oppose Trump nonsense without being radical, that could be a win for America.
Wonder why Lamb ran as Dem - was the GOP spot already taken?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Summary so far:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This November 6 all House Representatives, or their seats, will face reelection. And about 1/3 of the 100 Senators, currently scheduled to be 34. Minnesota has the rare event that both Senate seats are up for Election.
It would be nice if we could keep this thread focused on this Election analysis, discussion or predictions.
The 34 Senate seats include 8 Republican seats, 24 Democrat seats, and 2 Independent seats, who caucus with Democrats.
SENATE - currently 51 R, 47 D, 2 I.
8 REPUBLICAN
3 Republican Senators are retiring, in AZ, TN, UT. Utah considered safe R. Arizona could be tossup after RINO Flake. Tennessee likely to replace RINO Corker with more solid R.
WY, TX, NE, MS expect no change.
Nevada could be a tossup.
24 DEMOCRAT - none are seeking retirement.
14 Expect no change: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN (1), NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA, VA
4 Possible flip: FL, MN (1), OH, WI
6 Tossup: IN, MO, MT, ND, PA, WV
2 INDEPENDENT
Maine - might be tossup
Vermont - expected to remain Sanders.
So, Democrats could easily lose 11 Senators. Or they might flip 2, but certainly still lose the total count.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Seems to be 194 Democrat seats to 241 Republican seats. But currently 193 D seats and 238 R seats are held, with 4 vacant.
Looks like in the last midterms 2014 GOP gained 13 seats, and in 2016 Dems gained back 6 seats. 2010 midterms GOP gained 63 House seats.
What particular races do you find interesting?
So what other contests are on your radar? And how might they effect the balance in Congress?
Cheri Bustos D-IL is likely to flip seat to GOP.
Texas likely to stay GOP Senator, and 36 Reps remain same Party - with 23, 25, 32 closest to flipping.
Missouri has both Senate seats to be elected in November.
Pennsylvania's 18 seats likely to either stay 13-5 ratio for GOP, or change to 11-7.
Got it.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I filled in the info for the post of incumbents not running, and reposted the summary here.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Breakout of 51 Reps not running for reelection of their seats:
16 Dems, 35 GOP.
Retiring: 9 Dems, 23 GOP.
Running for Gov: 4 Dems, 5 GOP.
Running for Sen: 3 Dems, 7 GOP.
Context: in 2016 Hilliary took CO, MN, IL, WA, CA, OR, NV, NM, VA, HI, MD, DE, NJ, NY, NH, VT, ME, RI, CT, MA.
PA could be less predictable, with newly redrawn Districts, and Liberal/Conservative not conforming to norms nor to in-State counterparts.
Summary:
Likely safe Dems: (11)
AZ-9, HI-1, IL-4, MA-3, MD-6, MI-9, MI-13, NM-1, new PA-2, TX-16, TX-29.
Likely safe GOP: (36)
AZ-8, CA-39, CA-49, FL-6, FL-17, FL-27, ID-1, IN-4, IN-6, KS-2, MI-11, MS-3, NJ-2, NJ-11, NM-2, OH-12, OH-16, OK-1, new PA-5, new PA-7, new PA-9, new PA-11, new PA-14, SC-4, SDAL, TN-2, TN -6, TN-7, TX-2, TX-3, TX-5, TX-6, TX-21, TX-27, VA-6, WA-8, WV-3.
Likely flip to GOP:
NH-1, NV-3, NV-4, (3)
PPossible flip to GOP:
MN-1, MN-8, (2)
Dems need to gain 24 seats from GOP to take House Majority.
I had not noticed that NV-4 is actually a rematch of 2014. Barring Primary upset on June 12, the candidates will be the same 2.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Evidence thread?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:I already broke it down in the Evidence thread, and T hasn't dared come into that conversation because he knows I'm right and my detailed response with factual numbers that are backed up by "reputable" sites that he deems propaganda free, destroying his narrative that I can't read.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:It looks like 228,000 votes were cast Tuesday. The last (only) time this district had an opponent for Murphey, there were 320,000 votes cast in November. Lamb got fewer votes than Dem Larry Maggi did then.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol...
And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate.
/sarcasm
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.
If Republicans can come up with a viable candidate, hard to know if Lamb will keep the seat.
Democratic votes were down 8% from 2012. Republican votes were down 48% from 2012. There's no evidence that anybody flipped. 33% less people voted.
The Democrats may have found their winning strategy going forward. Demoralization. Saturate the people with so much negative news on a daily basis that everyone is too tired to vote and hope that they can get more Democrats to show up than Republicans.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
WTF?
What does evidence have to do with Special Election? Have you followed Alice down the rabbit hole?
This thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61678&p=16
Specifically posts starting at 6:09PM on the 13th, and ending with the post that go zero push back from anyone at 5:14AM on the 15th.
Yeah... I followed T down the rabbit hole there. Those posts should have been in this thread. You could copy and paste them here if you'd like. I can't be arsed to do it.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:You mention Lamb leans more toward your interests. Not sure of all the similars.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think that GOPers here should remember that DEMOCRATS are NOT YOUR ENEMY. It very much depends on what the person ran on.
Conor Lamb not only said that he wouldn't support Pelosi,Quote:http://freebeacon.com/politics/democrat-special-election-nominee-conor
A hand-picked Democratic nominee running in a Pennsylvania special election in March said Monday morning that he wouldn't support Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) if elected.
-lamb-goes-anti-pelosi/
he is a pro-gun https://heavy.com/news/2018/03/conor-lamb-guns-gun-control-position/ anti-abortion Democrat who is also for
jobs
infrastructural reinvestment
unions
https://conorlamb.com/priorities/
Although I disagree with some of his positions, he's closer to my leanings than the GOP.
Lamb is a young, photogenic campaigner. Saccone is an older guy with a history of being against unions, in a highly union-friendly state. Like all politicians, we should watch Lamb's commitment to his stated core issues once he gets in Congress. The power structure of both parties rewards followers with plum committee appointments and re-election assistance. Many a fiery candidate has gotten into office only to soften and eventually be re-molded into the shape of their party's money-handlers. If that happens, it merely (and once again) demonstrates the necessity of third, fourth, and fifth parties.
But Trump campaigned against him, Trump seemed to consider Saccone his puppet.
If Lamb can oppose Trump nonsense without being radical, that could be a win for America.
Wonder why Lamb ran as Dem - was the GOP spot already taken?
He doesn't seem like a radical to me. I guess you'd have to see what some of his stances on other issues are. I'm sure he has some Democratic leanings and the Democratic party wouldn't just allow this guy to skate on through as a Democrat if he was a hard Republican just to make a huge news story out of it.
Oh.... wait.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:Evidence thread?
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I already broke it down in the Evidence thread, and T hasn't dared come into that conversation because he knows I'm right and my detailed response with factual numbers that are backed up by "reputable" sites that he deems propaganda free, destroying his narrative that I can't read.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol...
And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate.
/sarcasm
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.It looks like 228,000 votes were cast Tuesday. The last (only) time this district had an opponent for Murphey, there were 320,000 votes cast in November. Lamb got fewer votes than Dem Larry Maggi did then.
If Republicans can come up with a viable candidate, hard to know if Lamb will keep the seat.
Democratic votes were down 8% from 2012. Republican votes were down 48% from 2012. There's no evidence that anybody flipped. 33% less people voted.
The Democrats may have found their winning strategy going forward. Demoralization. Saturate the people with so much negative news on a daily basis that everyone is too tired to vote and hope that they can get more Democrats to show up than Republicans.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
WTF?
What does evidence have to do with Special Election? Have you followed Alice down the rabbit hole?
This thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61678&p=16
Specifically posts starting at 6:09PM on the 13th, and ending with the post that go zero push back from anyone at 5:14AM on the 15th.
Yeah... I followed T down the rabbit hole there. Those posts should have been in this thread. You could copy and paste them here if you'd like. I can't be arsed to do it.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I don't have interest in a thread very clearly titled as a second/T/JO delusion.
Unless it was about Evidence of Hilliary/Obama Treason, Felony Crimes, Collusion, Election Fraud - which I doubt it was.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Of the 3 General Elections for this District, 2 times Dems did not even put up any candidate.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:He doesn't seem like a radical to me. I guess you'd have to see what some of his stances on other issues are. I'm sure he has some Democratic leanings and the Democratic party wouldn't just allow this guy to skate on through as a Democrat if he was a hard Republican just to make a huge news story out of it.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:You mention Lamb leans more toward your interests. Not sure of all the similars.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think that GOPers here should remember that DEMOCRATS are NOT YOUR ENEMY. It very much depends on what the person ran on.
Conor Lamb not only said that he wouldn't support Pelosi,Quote:http://freebeacon.com/politics/democrat-special-election-nominee-conor
A hand-picked Democratic nominee running in a Pennsylvania special election in March said Monday morning that he wouldn't support Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) if elected.
-lamb-goes-anti-pelosi/
he is a pro-gun https://heavy.com/news/2018/03/conor-lamb-guns-gun-control-position/ anti-abortion Democrat who is also for
jobs
infrastructural reinvestment
unions
https://conorlamb.com/priorities/
Although I disagree with some of his positions, he's closer to my leanings than the GOP.
Lamb is a young, photogenic campaigner. Saccone is an older guy with a history of being against unions, in a highly union-friendly state. Like all politicians, we should watch Lamb's commitment to his stated core issues once he gets in Congress. The power structure of both parties rewards followers with plum committee appointments and re-election assistance. Many a fiery candidate has gotten into office only to soften and eventually be re-molded into the shape of their party's money-handlers. If that happens, it merely (and once again) demonstrates the necessity of third, fourth, and fifth parties.
But Trump campaigned against him, Trump seemed to consider Saccone his puppet.
If Lamb can oppose Trump nonsense without being radical, that could be a win for America.
Wonder why Lamb ran as Dem - was the GOP spot already taken?
Oh.... wait.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Lamb sounds like a possible Conservative, the opposite of Trump. What else do the Dems need to hear to flip a seat that they couldn't otherwise get?
I would be interested to hear his views on Federal Debt, Deficit, spending.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I don't have interest in a thread very clearly titled as a second/T/JO delusion.
Unless it was about Evidence of Hilliary/Obama Treason, Felony Crimes, Collusion, Election Fraud - which I doubt it was.
Fair enough. I will post only the last post I was talking about here. The one that nobody has any arguments against. I'd like to hear your opinion on it. I wasn't aware you didn't see any of that exchange.
Be aware that counts for the election the other night are likely a little off by now. They couldn't make up their damn minds about them and I can't be arsed to tweak them slightly after the fact. Particularly since I got zero argument about them from anyone.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by Oonjerah:
6IXSTRINGJACK
Next time you change your name,
I suggest Jack_the_Cynical
... or the Blindly Embittered?
I think JackThePragmatic is more accurate and has a better ring to it.
With just about 1% of the vote left to tally that they're going to drag out for a day or two, and maybe even throw a recount or two in there to keep MSM viewership up with sagging ratings over the current Russian narrative, the MSM's predictions of voter turnout was heavily overstated. It looks as though the voter turnout was only under 220,000... Not even close to the low estimates of 250,000 that they were saying. This is a steep drop in votes by over 70,000 for District 18, in a race that "everyone" was watching, according to the MSM.
This also makes one wonder how accurate their percentage of who voted for who could possibly be when the actual voter turnout was 12% less than their lowest estimates. It seems that the MSM still doesn't have their fingers on the pulse of the American voter.
Current counted votes found here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pe
nnsylvania-house-special-election.html
Overall, I'd say the only good news for Democrats is that I was right about people not caring. Republicans for the most part seem to be the ones that didn't go to the polls in this special election. If you look at the numbers from the last actual opposed election for this seat in 2012, the Democrats had 10,000 less votes last night than they did in 2012. The Democrats lost the election with only 36% of the vote in 2012 with 122,146 votes, 10,000 or so more than what they managed last night. (113,111 counted so far, or 92% of 2012 Democratic voter turnout).
On the other hand, Republicans won in 2012 with 64% of the vote at 216,727 total votes, 100,000 more than what they managed last night. (112,532 counted so far, or 52% of 2012 Republican voter turnout).
2012 Numbers found here: https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_18th_Congressional_District
What this seems to mean to me is that voting is down for both parties, but it was significantly lower for Republicans. There wasn't any flipping from Democrat to Republican going on here. 8% of Democrats who previously voted chose to stay home, while 48% of Republicans who previously voted chose to stay home. A total vote decrease of around 33% (around 110,000 votes) from the last actual contested election in 2012 would suggest that this election was decided by low voter turnout rather than anybody changing sides.
Unless we get any hard statistics about actual counts of people who voted Republican in 2012 and/or 2016 who flipped to Democrat in last night's election, nobody should believe anything the MSM says about that being the case. There is no evidence of that happening here.
Congratulations on the win. Just keep in mind the numbers as the actual facts when the MSM talks about what the reasons are for this and what it might mean for the future. Don't get your hopes up too much. This race is not the crystal ball the MSM is going to frame it as.
Maybe this is the best Democratic strategy for 2018 and 2020. Saturate us with so much negative news in hopes that nobody shows up to polls anymore and that more Democrats will show up than Republicans on election day.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Of the 3 General Elections for this District, 2 times Dems did not even put up any candidate.
Lamb sounds like a possible Conservative, the opposite of Trump. What else do the Dems need to hear to flip a seat that they couldn't otherwise get?
I would be interested to hear his views on Federal Debt, Deficit, spending.
My guess is that he's socially Liberal and fiscally Conservative, for the most part. If I'm right about this, we need more moderates like him in office instead of the neo-lib/neo-con crazies on either side.
My advice to the Dems if I am right is to have him run again in the mid-term if they want to win it again. They won't have a chance if they try to put a true Leftist in this district. (Going forward I will be making a distinction between Leftist and Liberal, because there is a huge difference between the two).
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Before the election results in Pennsylvania, the president boosted Rick Saccone, and after Conor Lamb's win in the red district, Republicans are praising Lamb and saying he ran as a Republican. The panel discusses.
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/trump-gop-work-to-spin-conor-l
amb-s-win-in-their-favor-1186531907753
How desperate and deceitful are theses losers.
Bye republicans, don't let the door hit you in the ass as you go
T 
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:The numbers I got from 2012 were juSt under 115K and just under 205K. From wiki.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
With just about 1% of the vote left to tally that they're going to drag out for a day or two, and maybe even throw a recount or two in there to keep MSM viewership up with sagging ratings over the current Russian narrative, the MSM's predictions of voter turnout was heavily overstated. It looks as though the voter turnout was only under 220,000... Not even close to the low estimates of 250,000 that they were saying. This is a steep drop in votes by over 70,000 for District 18, in a race that "everyone" was watching, according to the MSM.
This also makes one wonder how accurate their percentage of who voted for who could possibly be when the actual voter turnout was 12% less than their lowest estimates. It seems that the MSM still doesn't have their fingers on the pulse of the American voter.
Current counted votes found here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pe
nnsylvania-house-special-election.html
Overall, I'd say the only good news for Democrats is that I was right about people not caring. Republicans for the most part seem to be the ones that didn't go to the polls in this special election. If you look at the numbers from the last actual opposed election for this seat in 2012, the Democrats had 10,000 less votes last night than they did in 2012. The Democrats lost the election with only 36% of the vote in 2012 with 122,146 votes, 10,000 or so more than what they managed last night. (113,111 counted so far, or 92% of 2012 Democratic voter turnout).
On the other hand, Republicans won in 2012 with 64% of the vote at 216,727 total votes, 100,000 more than what they managed last night. (112,532 counted so far, or 52% of 2012 Republican voter turnout).
2012 Numbers found here: https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_18th_Congressional_District
What this seems to mean to me is that voting is down for both parties, but it was significantly lower for Republicans. There wasn't any flipping from Democrat to Republican going on here. 8% of Democrats who previously voted chose to stay home, while 48% of Republicans who previously voted chose to stay home. A total vote decrease of around 33% (around 110,000 votes) from the last actual contested election in 2012 would suggest that this election was decided by low voter turnout rather than anybody changing sides.
Unless we get any hard statistics about actual counts of people who voted Republican in 2012 and/or 2016 who flipped to Democrat in last night's election, nobody should believe anything the MSM says about that being the case. There is no evidence of that happening here.
Congratulations on the win. Just keep in mind the numbers as the actual facts when the MSM talks about what the reasons are for this and what it might mean for the future. Don't get your hopes up too much. This race is not the crystal ball the MSM is going to frame it as.
Maybe this is the best Democratic strategy for 2018 and 2020. Saturate us with so much negative news in hopes that nobody shows up to polls anymore and that more Democrats will show up than Republicans on election day.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I like that you posted numbers during the count, which I could not get. Be well interesting to know what those numbers are now, from the source you used then. Can't really use cross-source figures when evaluating counting trends.
Otherwise your figures look OK.
But I can't fully endorse your conclusions and analysis.
I have not visited PA in recent months.
There are many different factions within the Voting Electorate. The simplest of breakdowns is 3 groups. Those that almost always vote Dem, those that almost always vote GOP, and the rest - often called the swing voter. This middle group is often in urban/suburban areas because they are most susceptible to Mind Control Media within the Media Bubble of their centralized
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Republicans lost. What's the important number. Verified total is at least 39 flipped seats for Democrats since Trump took office.
tick tock
T
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The numbers I got from 2012 were juSt under 115K and just under 205K. From wiki.
I like that you posted numbers during the count, which I could not get. Be well interesting to know what those numbers are now, from the source you used then. Can't really use cross-source figures when evaluating counting trends.
Otherwise your figures look OK.
But I can't fully endorse your conclusions and analysis.
I have not visited PA in recent months.
There are many different factions within the Voting Electorate. The simplest of breakdowns is 3 groups. Those that almost always vote Dem, those that almost always vote GOP, and the rest - often called the swing voter. This middle group is often in urban/suburban areas because they are most susceptible to Mind Control Media within the Media Bubble of their centralized Media Market. Rural voters often need to get satellite dish to obtain their Mind Control Media dosage.
Nationwide polls show Americans identify as Conservatives 38%, Liberals 24%. That leaves 38% in the middle. But Presidential Election results are often close to 50% of voters nationwide. Meaning Righties attract about 12% and Lefties attract about 26%, from the middle. Each State and District has different makeup, factions, components. But, on average, Liberals must more than double their core voter, and Conservatives need to add a buffer of about 1/3 their core voter, to get a majority.
So. PA-18. Suburbs of Pittsburgh, with 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Murphey usually won with about 64%. Max voter turnout for this District seat was 320,000. I'm not finding the max turnout for President, Governor, Senator for 2012, 2014, 2016. So 85,000 Conservative and 120,000 Liberal could be a rough guess of the core Voting blocks here - I don't have precise data. Liberals often cannot find Voting booths on Election Day, explaining their incomplete turnout.
If so, Murphey got 85,000 core plus 120,000 swing voters. And Lamb got practically all of the Liberal core, with Saccone getting 85,000 and only about 30,000 swing voters.
Not having better data can make a mess of numbers, but that seems a reasonable picture.
In a General Election the Pitt Media Market has several different Districts and levels of Office to produce Spin on. With only one race, all by itself, and no other competing dollar drawn for this date in the nation, the Mind Control Media must have been intense.
Come November this 14th District will have media focus diluted.
The numbers now from the same source:
Conor Lamb Democrat 113,813 49.8%
Rick Saccone Republican 113,186 49.6
Drew Miller Libertarian 1,379 0.6
They still don't have the final counts yet. Probably the absentee votes that weren't counted. Might not ever know the final counts since it doesn't matter. I'm actually quite surprised that they didn't demand a recount, but I'm happy they didn't. I always think that's pretty petty and embarrassing when it happens.
Yeah. I know what a swing vote is. My statement on what happened was that there is no way to account for how much the swing vote played a factor here. Well... there no-doubt is a way comparing voter registration lists against vote counts from 2012, 2016 and the other day, but nobody is going to do it.
I disagree that the swing voter is the one most susceptible to mind control though. I think the ones who are firmly locked into their own "sides" are the ones who are most susceptible. The Republicans at home watching Fox News everyday in the runup to the election while the Democrats were watching CNN and MSNBC everyday. Meanwhile, nothing ever seems to change for the better no matter who they vote for. I think the people in the middle are just lost and so disenfranchised that they just vote against whatever is going on today since it's always bad. The swing voter at least makes it to the booth though, rather than just staying home.
Do Right, Be Right
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
In 2016 GOP lost 6 incumbent seats.
FL-7 John Mica (District redrawn)
FL-13 David Jolly (District redrawn)
NJ-5 Scott Garrett
NH-1 Frank Guinta
IL-10 Bob Dold
NV Hardy
New Hampshire CD-1 has been a rematch for the past 4 elections, with Dem winning every Presidential Election year, and GOP winning every midterm Election. Unless GOP doesn't have a solid candidate, expect this seat to flip to GOP.
Illinois CD-10 has been a rematch for the past 4 elections, duplicate history and expectations as NH-1.
New Jersey CD-5 has voted GOP from 2002-2014, until Clinton Toadie in 2016 was funded by huge pile of Clinton funds. Midterms have about 120,000 fewer votes cast than President years. Unless Clinton funding duplicates this feat and also bus voters to the polls, this seat expected to flip back to GOP this midterm.
This is the first midterm following Florida redistricting.
Florida CD-7 voted for Mica (R) by at least 17% margin each time until 2016 when he only got 48.5% of the vote. This seat likely to flip back to GOP this midterm.
Florida CD-13 voted in the last midterm 75% for Jolly (R), and then former GOP Gov Crist won in 2016 with 52%. Likely to flip back to GOP this midterm.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Conor Lamb
Democrat
113,813
49.8%
Rick Saccone
Republican
113,186
49.6
Drew Miller
Libertarian
1,379
0.6
Earlier counts were 112,532 R and 113,111 D.
So R gained 654 while D gained 702.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Summary to this point:
Likely House seats flipping to GOP: (7)
FL-7, FL-13, IL-10, NH-1, NJ-5, NV-3, NV-4
Possible House seats flipping to GOP: (3)
IL-17, MN-1, MN-8
I'm not convinced CA-44 will stay Dem.
Texas House seats closest to flipping to Dem are 23, 25, 32 - but not expected.
Pennsylvania redistricting could gain Dems 0-2 seats.
Democraps need to gain 24 House seats to gain majority.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:The voter that almost always votes for the same Party is the most likely to change their vote from one Election to another?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:Yeah. I know what a swing vote is. My statement on what happened was that there is no way to account for how much the swing vote played a factor here.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The numbers I got from 2012 were juSt under 115K and just under 205K. From wiki.
But I can't fully endorse your conclusions and analysis.
I have not visited PA in recent months.
There are many different factions within the Voting Electorate. The simplest of breakdowns is 3 groups. Those that almost always vote Dem, those that almost always vote GOP, and the rest - often called the swing voter. This middle group is often in urban/suburban areas because they are most susceptible to Mind Control Media within the Media Bubble of their centralized Media Market. Rural voters often need to get satellite dish to obtain their Mind Control Media dosage.
Nationwide polls show Americans identify as Conservatives 38%, Liberals 24%. That leaves 38% in the middle. But Presidential Election results are often close to 50% of voters nationwide. Meaning Righties attract about 12% and Lefties attract about 26%, from the middle. Each State and District has different makeup, factions, components. But, on average, Liberals must more than double their core voter, and Conservatives need to add a buffer of about 1/3 their core voter, to get a majority.
So. PA-18. Suburbs of Pittsburgh, with 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Murphey usually won with about 64%. Max voter turnout for this District seat was 320,000. I'm not finding the max turnout for President, Governor, Senator for 2012, 2014, 2016. So 85,000 Conservative and 120,000 Liberal could be a rough guess of the core Voting blocks here - I don't have precise data. Liberals often cannot find Voting booths on Election Day, explaining their incomplete turnout.
If so, Murphey got 85,000 core plus 120,000 swing voters. And Lamb got practically all of the Liberal core, with Saccone getting 85,000 and only about 30,000 swing voters.
Not having better data can make a mess of numbers, but that seems a reasonable picture.
In a General Election the Pitt Media Market has several different Districts and levels of Office to produce Spin on. With only one race, all by itself, and no other competing dollar drawn for this date in the nation, the Mind Control Media must have been intense.
I disagree that the swing voter is the one most susceptible to mind control though. I think the ones who are firmly locked into their own "sides" are the ones who are most susceptible. The Republicans at home watching Fox News everyday in the runup to the election while the Democrats were watching CNN and MSNBC everyday. Meanwhile, nothing ever seems to change for the better no matter who they vote for. I think the people in the middle are just lost and so disenfranchised that they just vote against whatever is going on today since it's always bad. The swing voter at least makes it to the booth though, rather than just staying home.
???
Did you really post that?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The voter that almost always votes for the same Party is the most likely to change their vote from one Election to another?
???
Did you really post that?
No. I didn't.
I said that the people who always blindly vote for the same party no matter what are the ones who are mind controlled. THEY are the people responsible for the great divide in our country right now and are foolishly playing into the hands of the powerful people that are pulling the strings. THEY are the reason that we have neo-cons and neo-libs in office and we have a Congress that nobody ends up approving or trusting.
The swing voter is the one who might at least possibly have a mind of their own. I don't think that it is a case in the majority of them for sure, but if you're looking for somebody who can actually think for themselves, don't bother looking to somebody who always votes R or always votes D. The lights might be on, but nobody is home.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Some people are interested in focusing upon the gender of the members of Congress.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Senate races.
The Democrats:
In MO 2006 (last midterm) McCaskill won with 49.6% of the vote.
In MT Tester won in 2012 with 49% and in 2006 with 49.2%.
In ND Heitkamp won in 2012 with 50%.
In WI 2012 Baldwin won with 51% against a RINO, who had 66% of the Primary vote against him.
In IN Donnelly won in 2012 with 50.04% of the vote.
In OH Brown won 56% in 2006 and 51% in 2012, when Obama carried 51% - 48%.
In ME King won in 2012 with 53%, while Obama carried it 56% - 41%. In 2014 the Republican won with 68%.
In PA Casey won 58% in 2006 and 54% in 2012, when Obama carried 52% - 46%.
In FL Nelson won 60% in 2006 and 55% in 2012. Rick Scott cannot be Gov past Jan 2019.
In WV Manchin won 61% in 2012. In 2014 the Republican won with 62%.
Those first 6-7 should be easy pickups for the GOP. But with RINO McConnell controlling Senate Campaign funds, it could be disaster for GOP.
In WI, the expected matchup of Tammy Baldwin (D) and Leah Vukmir (vUk-meer) (R) would result in a net gender change of Zero. Although Baldwin is a Lesbian, and Vukmir entered politics over concerns for her children.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:So those who have principles and vote accordingly are blind, foolish, and mind-controlled, and the wishy-washy flavor-of-the-day fickle voter has a mind of their own, based upon how many dollars are spend re-educating them?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:No. I didn't.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The voter that almost always votes for the same Party is the most likely to change their vote from one Election to another?
???
Did you really post that?
I said that the people who always blindly vote for the same party no matter what are the ones who are mind controlled. THEY are the people responsible for the great divide in our country right now and are foolishly playing into the hands of the powerful people that are pulling the strings. THEY are the reason that we have neo-cons and neo-libs in office and we have a Congress that nobody ends up approving or trusting.
The swing voter is the one who might at least possibly have a mind of their own. I don't think that it is a case in the majority of them for sure, but if you're looking for somebody who can actually think for themselves, don't bother looking to somebody who always votes R or always votes D. The lights might be on, but nobody is home.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
How enlightening to learn of this phenomena.
So this means the mind-control only works on those who never change their vote. So there is no need or use for political ads. Amazing.
And yet all data shows that the mind-control and political ads only work on populations within the media bubbles (population centers), to swing the votes from one direction to another, from one election to another.
Those outside the media mind-control bubble remain consistently Conservative - look at the election results by voting ward sometime.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:So those who have principles and vote accordingly are blind, foolish, and mind-controlled, and the wishy-washy flavor-of-the-day fickle voter has a mind of their own, based upon how many dollars are spend re-educating them?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:No. I didn't.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The voter that almost always votes for the same Party is the most likely to change their vote from one Election to another?
???
Did you really post that?
I said that the people who always blindly vote for the same party no matter what are the ones who are mind controlled. THEY are the people responsible for the great divide in our country right now and are foolishly playing into the hands of the powerful people that are pulling the strings. THEY are the reason that we have neo-cons and neo-libs in office and we have a Congress that nobody ends up approving or trusting.
The swing voter is the one who might at least possibly have a mind of their own. I don't think that it is a case in the majority of them for sure, but if you're looking for somebody who can actually think for themselves, don't bother looking to somebody who always votes R or always votes D. The lights might be on, but nobody is home.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
How enlightening to learn of this phenomena.
So this means the mind-control only works on those who never change their vote. So there is no need or use for political ads. Amazing.
And yet all data shows that the mind-control and political ads only work on populations within the media bubbles (population centers), to swing the votes from one direction to another, from one election to another.
Those outside the media mind-control bubble remain consistently Conservative - look at the election results by voting ward sometime.
2016:
2012:
2008:
[img] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9a/2008prescoun
tymap.PNG/257px-2008prescountymap.PNG [/img]
2004:
2000:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5d/2000prescoun
tymap2.PNG/488px-2000prescountymap2.PNG
1996:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3d/1996prescoun
tymap2.PNG/488px-1996prescountymap2.PNG
1992:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/37/1992prescoun
tymap2.PNG/400px-1992prescountymap2.PNG
1988:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/1988prescoun
tymap2.PNG/220px-1988prescountymap2.PNG
1984:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/da/1984prescoun
tymap2.PNG/400px-1984prescountymap2.PNG
Of course, the insets are not to scale. The width of Alaska from Attu Island to Ketchikan is over 2,180 miles, while the width of the contiguous United States from San Diego, CA to Brunswick, GA is less than 2,090 miles.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms
Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-n
eed-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms
T
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Wow. Just like what happened with Obama, right? What a daring prediction.
This is a good thing. Obama did the most damage of his 8 years in the first 2. Trump hasn't come close in his first 2. This should ensure that continues.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Looks like Mississippi also has both Senators up for Election.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Originally posted by THGRRI:
GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms
Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-n
eed-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms
T
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms
Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-n
eed-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms
T
I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:kpo does not post predictions which are embarrassing to Libtards.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Originally posted by THGRRI:
GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms
Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-n
eed-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms
T
Do Right, Be Right. :)
kpo only posts highly biased, slanted, unbalanced viewpoints. Reasonable and balanced views are verbotten.
6ix, did you notice T's continued syntax failures again seeped into your post?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
You've got to be the dumbest fucker here.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:kpo does not post predictions which are embarrassing to Libtards.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Originally posted by THGRRI:
GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms
Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-n
eed-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms
T
Do Right, Be Right. :)
kpo only posts highly biased, slanted, unbalanced viewpoints. Reasonable and balanced views are verbotten.
6ix, did you notice T's continued syntax failures again seeped into your post?
No. They look good to me here. He lost his account shortly after fixing it so no way of telling if the fixes stuck until he can get it back.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms
Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-n
eed-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms
T
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Here is a quote of your post, uncorrected.
Normally, quoted text is shown in Cyan. In your post the quote you have to f my post is in white. When I quoted you the first time, I had to correct syntax of T to get your post in Cyan.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Here is a quote of your post, uncorrected.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms
Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-n
eed-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms
T
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Normally, quoted text is shown in Cyan. In your post the quote you have to f my post is in white. When I quoted you the first time, I had to correct syntax of T to get your post in Cyan.
I'm not seeing anything in his quote that's causing that.
He didn't use any opening tags in that particular post at all. His end has the closed italics and the closed font. Open and closed bold and quotes surrounded his post when it was initially quoted.
Could have been a typo on any of our parts while re-posting. I don't think that was anything T did this time.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Yesterday Eric Hovde announced he would not be running for Wisconsin's US Senator.
I had thought he had already announced this.
News displayed a pic of Leah Vukmir, very flattering. I've never seen an image of her before.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I'm not seeing anything in his quote that's causing that.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:Here is a quote of your post, uncorrected.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms
Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campai
gn/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms
T
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Normally, quoted text is shown in Cyan. In your post the quote you have to f my post is in white. When I quoted you the first time, I had to correct syntax of T to get your post in Cyan.
He didn't use any opening tags in that particular post at all. His end has the closed italics and the closed font. Open and closed bold and quotes surrounded his post when it was initially quoted.
Could have been a typo on any of our parts while re-posting. I don't think that was anything T did this time.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
He caused it with an unaccompanied close font. Your error quote of him still has it, my corrected quote of you does not. 2 ways to fix. Delete the font close. Or insert a font start before it.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Whatever you're seeing isn't something that I'm noticing or that's bothering me like being constantly italicized was. And before he put that closing font tag in, every time you quoted him your text would turn pink unless you removed his open font.
He only seems to colorize about half of his posts, so now that he has a close font in the end of every one of his posts there's going to be an extra tag sometimes.
I'll take whatever you're seeing now over being turned pink every time. The only alternative is if he were to remove both of those closing tags from every post again and then we'd be relying on him to remember to put them in manually only when he uses them. I'll take the former.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:politico, the place of Libtard fantasies.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
The House Speaker Paul Ryan does not plan to seek re-election after his current term is up next year, a new report said Thursday.
he Wisconsin Republican and one-time vice presidential candidate — who first entered Congress in 1999 and was elected speaker in October 2015 — has told pals he’s had enough, Politico reported.
The website, citing interviews with three dozen associates, said Ryan was tiring of the job, but would not make a public announcement because he would lose power as a lame duck, making it even more difficult to enact President Trump’s stalled agenda.
But Ryan said later he’s not leaving Congress anytime soon.
Asked by a reporter if he planned to quit anytime soon, Ryan chuckled and said, “I’m not. No.”
https://nypost.com/2017/12/14/paul-ryan-might-not-seek-re-election-in-
2018/
T
Told you so asshole. Way back in February.
JJ
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Sounds like yesterday's Election for Arizona-8 was won by a Conservative woman. And Trump had tweeted in support of her.
The MSM/DNC polls had shown conservative voters underrepresented, shocking revelation to all.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like yesterday's Election for Arizona-8 was won by a Conservative woman. And Trump had tweeted in support of her.
The MSM/DNC polls had shown conservative voters underrepresented, shocking revelation to all.
JJ
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Libtards are genius when they explain that Conservative Republicans winning Elections means that Conservatives and Republicans won't win Elections.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I think their problem is that most of them just take it personally.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Some States having Primaries tomorrow.
Big surge in polls for GOP could prove interesting.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
In the Primaries yesterday:
In Indiana, CD-2 had about 54,000 votes for GOP, and 32,000 for Dems.
For IN-1 about 52k voted Dem (inc) and 22k voted GOP.
For IN-4 about 20k voted Dem and 80k voted GOP.
For IN-6 about 23k voted Dem and 73k voted GOP.
For IN-7 about 42k voted Dem (inc) and 30k voted GOP.
For IN-9 about 45k voted Dem and 69k voted GOP (Inc).
For the Senate, 2 sitting GOP Congressmen were defeated.
For Ohio-4 about 21,000 voted for Dems and 65,000 voted for GOP (incumbent).
For OH-5 about 26,000 voted Dem and 62,000 voted GOP (Inc).
For OH-6 about 29,000 voted Dem and 59,000 voted GOP (incumbent).
For OH-7 about 30,000 voted Dem and 54,000 voted GOP (Inc)
For OH-9 about 48k voted Dem (Inc) and 21k voted GOP.
For OH-10 about 34k voted Dem and 53k voted GOP (Inc).
For OH-12 about 44k voted Dem and 67k voted GOP.
For OH-16 about 41k voted Dem and 64k voted GOP.
For NC-2 about 33k voted Dem and 23k voted GOP (Inc).
NC-3 incumbent wins (GOP).
For NC-5 about 28k voted Dem and 40k voted GOP (Inc).
For NC-9 about 46k voted Dem and 36k voted GOP (incumbent lost).
For NC-11 about 33k voted Dem and 41k voted GOP (Inc).
For NC-12 about 45k voted Dem (Inc) and 7k voted GOP.
For Senator from West Virginia, about 160k voted Dem (Inc) and 136k voted GOP.
For WV-3 about 57k voted Dem and 38k voted GOP.
Of that, NC-2 and NC-9 look interesting. And WV-3 is GOP.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Apparently Mike Braun in Indiana is a lifelong Democrat who is now a newly minted lifelong Republican and Conservative.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
North Carolina got CDs redrawn and renumbered. CD-2 seems completely different than the last 3 Elections. CD-9 looks similar to the CD-8 territory of the past 3 Elections, and a little bit like the previous decade's CD-9.
Looks like 2010 produced 6 GOP and 7 Dem before redistricting, and in 2014, 2016 elected 10 GOP and 3 Dem.
So GOP could easily lose 2 House seats from NC.
WV-3 has voted GOP in 2014, 2016, but was Dem for 32 years before.
It might be a GOP loss this year.
I also updated the OP.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Apparently Mike Braun in Indiana is a lifelong Democrat who is now a newly minted lifelong Republican and Conservative.
Quote:
Braun is from Jasper, Indiana. He graduated from Jasper High School. He went to Wabash College, where he earned a bachelor's degree, and Harvard Business School, where he earned a master's degree. Braun is the president and CEO of Meyer Distributing.
Braun was a member of the Jasper School Board from 2004 to 2014. He was succeeded by Arlet Jackle. He was elected to the state House in 2014. Braun won the Republican primary for the United States Senate in the 2018 election. Braun resigned from the state House on November 1, 2017, to focus on his U.S. Senate campaign.
Braun and his wife, Maureen, have four children. He is Roman Catholic. Braun's brother, Steve Braun, was a candidate for the Republican nomination in Indiana's 4th congressional district.
If by "Lifelong Democrat" you mean between the time he got his Liberal brainwashing at Harvard up until he served a low level government post on a school board, and by "newly minted" you mean back in 2012 while he was still on the school board and two years before he went into any real politics.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Yup. He's like 62, right?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Apparently Mike Braun in Indiana is a lifelong Democrat who is now a newly minted lifelong Republican and Conservative.Quote:If by "Lifelong Democrat" you mean between the time he got his Liberal brainwashing at Harvard up until he served a low level government post on a school board, and by "newly minted" you mean back in 2012 while he was still on the school board and two years before he went into any real politics.
Braun is from Jasper, Indiana. He graduated from Jasper High School. He went to Wabash College, where he earned a bachelor's degree, and Harvard Business School, where he earned a master's degree. Braun is the president and CEO of Meyer Distributing.
Braun was a member of the Jasper School Board from 2004 to 2014. He was succeeded by Arlet Jackle. He was elected to the state House in 2014. Braun won the Republican primary for the United States Senate in the 2018 election. Braun resigned from the state House on November 1, 2017, to focus on his U.S. Senate campaign.
Braun and his wife, Maureen, have four children. He is Roman Catholic. Braun's brother, Steve Braun, was a candidate for the Republican nomination in Indiana's 4th congressional district.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Being 54, on School Board, and CEO as Registered Democrap does not add up to Conservative to me.
Being a Libtard for 30ish years of adulthood in the real world could just imply he is beyond stupid.
Have you checked the Unemployment Rate thread?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Looks like none of those ballyhooed teachers were able to locate the Voting booths like they claimed they would, in OH, IN, WV, NC.
Good thing Unionized overpaid teachers are Untrainable.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Yup. He's like 62, right?
Being 54, on School Board, and CEO as Registered Democrap does not add up to Conservative to me.
Being a Libtard for 30ish years of adulthood in the real world could just imply he is beyond stupid.
Well... he is a Harvard grad that runs a business. I can't imagine he's too stupid. I'm going to say that he probably wasn't all that Democrat for most of his life, possibly even through his Harvard education. His brother also runs as a Conservative. He probably put on the Democrat mask because it was the easiest way to get the cushy school board position, and it's probably a lot easier to interact with teachers when you're not labeled a Conservative.
This would make sense that he only changed his label to Republican only after the last time he was voted in on the school board and two years before he ran for a higher office.
Quote:
Have you checked the Unemployment Rate thread?
Not yet.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Looks like none of those ballyhooed teachers were able to locate the Voting booths like they claimed they would, in OH, IN, WV, NC.
Good thing Unionized overpaid teachers are Untrainable.
Good. My property taxes went up 20% last year, and 90% of that rise was for education.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I am not really familiar with your exact location, but I tend to assume that statement is not technically correct.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Good. My property taxes went up 20% last year, and 90% of that rise was for education.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
For the vast majority of instances, "education" is the excuse given, but the actual cause is Union Pay Raises for incompetent teachers. This is often disguised by neglected buildings maintenance, expansion, other failed budgeting in lieu of wasting more funds on teachers instead of having a simple balanced Budget.
I don't believe it is actually "education" but just more wasted cash funneled to Unions.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Granted, this is about polling. Given that:
In December 2017 people were talking about a 'blue wave'
The Democrats' Wave Could Turn Into A Flood | FiveThirtyEight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-wave-could-turn-int
o-a-flood/
Dec 22, 2017
A mere two months later, the blue wave failed to majestically sweep the extant elections
What Happened To The Democratic Wave? | FiveThirtyEight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happened-to-the-democratic-w
ave/
Feb 1, 2018
Yesterday, CNN described it as a trickle
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/opinions/gop-wins-against-democrats-blu
e-wave-stewart-opinion/index.html
For Dems, 'blue wave' is now a trickle
Updated 3:34 AM ET, Fri May 11, 2018
I've been harping on this since the early days of the Hillary campaign. The dems are clueless about coming up with an economic message for the vast majority of people who've been in economic distress for far too long.
Bill said it best "It's the economy, stupid". Then the dems forgot and decided they should focus on 'demographics'.
So anyway ... anyone up for a rational, fact-based, and civil discussion about the topic?
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Good breakdown of the progression of their delusions.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Granted, this is about polling. Given that:
In December 2017 people were talking about a 'blue wave'
The Democrats' Wave Could Turn Into A Flood | FiveThirtyEight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-wave-could-turn-int
o-a-flood/
Dec 22, 2017
A mere two months later, the blue wave failed to majestically sweep the extant elections
What Happened To The Democratic Wave? | FiveThirtyEight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happened-to-the-democratic-w
ave/
Feb 1, 2018
Yesterday, CNN described it as a trickle
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/opinions/gop-wins-against-democrats-blu
e-wave-stewart-opinion/index.html
For Dems, 'blue wave' is now a trickle
Updated 3:34 AM ET, Fri May 11, 2018
I've been harping on this since the early days of the Hillary campaign. The dems are clueless about coming up with an economic message for the vast majority of people who've been in economic distress for far too long.
Bill said it best "It's the economy, stupid". Then the dems forgot and decided they should focus on 'demographics'.
So anyway ... anyone up for a rational, fact-based, and civil discussion about the topic?
I likely never would have found all that Libtard POV from such Leftie sources.
All of those Democrap Millionaires think Obamanomics was the Promised Land, not a mirage.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Today Leah Vukmir was endorsed by the WI GOP at their Convention, with 72% of the polling.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I did in the OP.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How about you JSF? Any insight into Wisconsin?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Lesbian Tammy Baldwin is expected to lose her Senate Seat. In 2012 that race was lost in the GOP Primary. Solid Conservative Leah Vukmir is expected to win. Pity losing her as State Senator because it has been difficult filling her seat with reasonable candidates, near Milwaukee.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I am not really familiar with your exact location, but I tend to assume that statement is not technically correct.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Good. My property taxes went up 20% last year, and 90% of that rise was for education.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
For the vast majority of instances, "education" is the excuse given, but the actual cause is Union Pay Raises for incompetent teachers. This is often disguised by neglected buildings maintenance, expansion, other failed budgeting in lieu of wasting more funds on teachers instead of having a simple balanced Budget.
I don't believe it is actually "education" but just more wasted cash funneled to Unions.
I definitely don't know enough about the issue to argue with you about it since I don't have kids and don't really care all that much. My neighbor's kids seem pretty bright compared to that girl I was seeing a few years back who had a kid in one of the neighboring school systems that were known to be terrible. A lot of that could be chalked up to family/home life though, as she wasn't providing a very good one for her kids, and my neighbors have it pretty together.
I am in Indiana too, which is consistently run mostly GOP and has comparatively low taxes and a surprising amount of government services offered for them compared to other states in the great lakes area.
This site lists Indiana as 39th in teacher pay. https://www.app.com/story/news/investigations/data/2017/08/01/states-w
ho-pay-teachers-the-most/495826001/
It also shows Illinois at 10, Michigan at 15, and Wisconsin at 29.
You're probably right though. The teachers saw a majority of that money I'm sure.
I was kind of surprised to see the taxes go back down again this year. We had two years of great decreases that were pretty much wiped out by that education spending last year. This years reduction saw about a 50% decrease in last year's increase.
All of these decreases, and the year of the increase, came as the actual listed value of my property steadily increased about $8,000. I've called and verifed every year and this increase is not because they mistakenly added something to my home like central A/C or something. This is just because (according to them at least) that property values in my area have been rising over the last 5 or so years.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I heard an ad today, about or for the other candidate on the GOP primary.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today Leah Vukmir was endorsed by the WI GOP at their Convention, with 72% of the polling.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I did in the OP.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How about you JSF? Any insight into Wisconsin?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Lesbian Tammy Baldwin is expected to lose her Senate Seat. In 2012 that race was lost in the GOP Primary. Solid Conservative Leah Vukmir is expected to win. Pity losing her as State Senator because it has been difficult filling her seat with reasonable candidates, near Milwaukee.
The ad described how some have left the Democraps to become Republicans. The WV Gov, and Phil Gramm, Ronald Reagan. And this guy, a lifelong Democrat (he looks to be 30ish), has decided to become a Conservative Republican.
The ad was from a PAC. I really could not tell if the ad was supposed to support this guy, or sarcastically undercut him.
A lifelong Democrap who now decides to be a Conservative Republican. This seems to be the only way for Liberal Democraps to get elected anymore.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
On Tuesday there were some Primary Elections in at least 4 States including TX, AR, KY, GA. Not sure if any were for Congress.
Well, not any noteworthy races for Congress, but in KY, TX, and GA it looks like any Democrat with a chance of winning in November has just been Primaried by the Loony Lefty Extremist Fringe Kooks. Either the Dems do not want to win any seats, or the Republican voters were allowed to cast ballots for the worst of the Dem candidates.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
This is not about any specific races. And as we have seen, polls need to be considered with very, VERY large caveats.
However -
Reuters Poll: Republicans Lead Generic Ballot for First Time in 2018 ...
National Review-May 22, 2018
The case against Democrats winning back the House
CNN-May 25, 2018
I consider myself to be a pretty non-partisan bellweather. And I'm just about as fed up with Trump's chaotic antics as I am with democrat's conniving. So this item was surprising.
SECOND is a troll because it constantly misrepresents what people post, fails to address their actual positions, and resorts to personal attacks when its brain isn't working (which is most of the time).
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Are you suggesting you believed the propaganda prior to today? So many days this took to filter to you.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
This is not about any specific races. And as we have seen, polls need to be considered with very, VERY large caveats.
However -
Reuters Poll: Republicans Lead Generic Ballot for First Time in 2018 ...
National Review-May 22, 2018
The case against Democrats winning back the House
CNN-May 25, 2018Quote:SECOND is a troll because it constantly misrepresents what people post, fails to address their actual positions, and resorts to personal attacks when its brain isn't working (which is most of the time).
I consider myself to be a pretty non-partisan bellweather. And I'm just about as fed up with Trump's chaotic antics as I am with democrat's conniving. So this item was surprising.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
"Are you suggesting you believed the propaganda prior to today?"
No.
As I mentioned many, many, many times, I didn't vote for Trump. I voted against Hillary. And I was hoping Trump would normalize relations with our nuclear equal. But the fact that Trump seemed to stand against the Deep State, and also stand against international business running our policies, were points in his favor.
However, he seems to have lost his way. It's starting to look like he's caved to the Deep State and international corporations. Though maybe it was too much to expect one man to stand against a 50 year old behemoth. In any case, I've tired of antics and would like to see some substance.
That's why the Reuters poll surprised me. I assume I'm about on track with a lot of people. Apparently not.
Maybe they're just coming to the point I got to a while ago about the DNI, FBI, CIA, NSA, and DNC. And the dems are starting to look worse and worse to more people, which means, in relative terms, republicans are doing better.
SECOND is a troll because it constantly misrepresents what people post, fails to address their actual positions, and resorts to personal attacks when its brain isn't working (which is most of the time).
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Were you expecting a blue wave in your state? Are you now expecting a red wave?
Originally posted by 1kiki:
"Are you suggesting you believed the propaganda prior to today?"
No.
As I mentioned many, many, many times, I didn't vote for Trump. I voted against Hillary. And I was hoping Trump would normalize relations with our nuclear equal. But the fact that Trump seemed to stand against the Deep State, and also stand against international business running our policies, were points in his favor.
However, he seems to have lost his way. It's starting to look like he's caved to the Deep State and international corporations. Though maybe it was too much to expect one man to stand against a 50 year old behemoth. In any case, I've tired of antics and would like to see some substance.
That's why the Reuters poll surprised me. I assume I'm about on track with a lot of people. Apparently not.
Maybe they're just coming to the point I got to a while ago about the DNI, FBI, CIA, NSA, and DNC. And the dems are starting to look worse and worse to more people, which means, in relative terms, republicans are doing better.
SECOND is a troll because it constantly misrepresents what people post, fails to address their actual positions, and resorts to personal attacks when its brain isn't working (which is most of the time).
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Not expecting. Just observing how the coverage has been changing.
My state is California, which is so blue it bleeds blue.
My contention - since the democratic primaries - was the Hillary was a weak candidate, with a lot of baggage. Since the election, my contention has been that Trump was elected specifically because he was promising something different. And that the democrats needed to get off their fat, donor-bloated, 'demographics' shaped asses, and start coming up with policies that reflected people's economic concerns. I also contended that the democrats were trying to hide behind the 'RUSSIA' campaign to un-elect Trump, as a smokescreen for their inability to do anything helpful for the voter at the national level.
To my surprise, though in an unexpected way, this analysis seems to be coming true. I think the democrats are now linked to 'dirty tricks' played by the intelligence community and the Hillary campaign, and they're experiencing blowback.
In terms of expectations, I still believe that Trump needs to come up with a clear-cut accomplishment. People are fickle.
SECOND is a troll because it constantly misrepresents what people post, fails to address their actual positions, and resorts to personal attacks when its brain isn't working (which is most of the time).
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:For this year's Elections, it's becoming hard to imagine the Economy, the pocketbook won't create a red wave in November.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Not expecting. Just observing how the coverage has been changing.
My state is California, which is so blue it bleeds blue.
My contention - since the democratic primaries - was the Hillary was a weak candidate, with a lot of baggage. Since the election, my contention has been that Trump was elected specifically because he was promising something different. And that the democrats needed to get off their fat, donor-bloated, 'demographics' shaped asses, and start coming up with policies that reflected people's economic concerns. I also contended that the democrats were trying to hide behind the 'RUSSIA' campaign to un-elect Trump, as a smokescreen for their inability to do anything helpful for the voter at the national level.
To my surprise, though in an unexpected way, this analysis seems to be coming true. I think the democrats are now linked to 'dirty tricks' played by the intelligence community and the Hillary campaign, and they're experiencing blowback.
In terms of expectations, I still believe that Trump needs to come up with a clear-cut accomplishment. People are fickle.
SECOND is a troll because it constantly misrepresents what people post, fails to address their actual positions, and resorts to personal attacks when its brain isn't working (which is most of the time).
For those who now support Trump, his Tax Reform will be enough to give him 2020, assuming he's alive. As long as he keeps making effort on Repealing Obamacare Nd building a Wall.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
And the dems are starting to look worse and worse to more people, which means, in relative terms, republicans are doing better.
I think at this point that this is the one thing that is going in Trump's favor.
People are sick of the Democrat/MSM/Hollywood Elite bullshit. YouTube channels are getting 10 times as many daily views as CNN/MSNBC and Fox. The Oscars hit a record low. The NFL had to make a new rule to try to get the politics out of the game.
Nobody gives a shit anymore what rich people think.
They need to all just STFU and do their damn jobs.
We are not entertained.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Garrett of VA is not running again this November.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I need to update the current tally/summary. This is from 12 March.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Summary so far:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This November 6 all House Representatives, or their seats, will face reelection. And about 1/3 of the 100 Senators, currently scheduled to be 34. Minnesota has the rare event that both Senate seats are up for Election.
It would be nice if we could keep this thread focused on this Election analysis, discussion or predictions.
The 34 Senate seats include 8 Republican seats, 24 Democrat seats, and 2 Independent seats, who caucus with Democrats.
SENATE - currently 51 R, 47 D, 2 I.
8 REPUBLICAN
3 Republican Senators are retiring, in AZ, TN, UT. Utah considered safe R. Arizona could be tossup after RINO Flake. Tennessee likely to replace RINO Corker with more solid R.
WY, TX, NE, MS expect no change.
Nevada could be a tossup.
24 DEMOCRAT - none are seeking retirement.
14 Expect no change: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN (1), NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA, VA
4 Possible flip: FL, MN (1), OH, WI
6 Tossup: IN, MO, MT, ND, PA, WV
2 INDEPENDENT
Maine - might be tossup
Vermont - expected to remain Sanders.
So, Democrats could easily lose 11 Senators. Or they might flip 2, but certainly still lose the total count.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Seems to be 194 Democrat seats to 241 Republican seats. But currently 193 D seats and 238 R seats are held, with 4 vacant.
Looks like in the last midterms 2014 GOP gained 13 seats, and in 2016 Dems gained back 6 seats. 2010 midterms GOP gained 63 House seats.
What particular races do you find interesting?
So what other contests are on your radar? And how might they effect the balance in Congress?
Cheri Bustos D-IL is likely to flip seat to GOP.
Texas likely to stay GOP Senator, and 36 Reps remain same Party - with 23, 25, 32 closest to flipping.
Missouri has both Senate seats to be elected in November.
Pennsylvania's 18 seats likely to either stay 13-5 ratio for GOP, or change to 11-7.
Got it.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Some Primaries were held yesterday, including the Jungle Primary in CA.
Dems were trying to Primary some Republican seats, not sure if they succeeded.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:CA has 53 Congressional Districts. Primary winners:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Some Primaries were held yesterday, including the Jungle Primary in CA.
Dems were trying to Primary some Republican seats, not sure if they succeeded.
Those with a Dem winner and no GOP candidate were CD-5, 20, 34, 40.
Those with 2 Dem winners and not a GOP incumbent were CD-6, 27, 44.
Those with only a Dem running were CD-13, 19, 32.
One with 2 GOP winners is CD-8.
Those with a D and R winner, and the R had higher vote count were CD-4, 10, 21, 22, 23, 25, 39 (no Inc), 42, 45, 48, 49 (no Inc), 50 (no Inc).
The rest had a D and R winner, with the D getting higher vote count.
One interesting race is CD-31 with the incumbent having 0.7% more than the GOP candidate.
I have not checked all the details, but it looks like the goal of Primarying incumbent GOP seats has failed.
All of the seats with an R lead are currently held by R, and all with a D lead are currently held by D.
So, no likely flips from R to D. But some potential flips from D to R.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Sounds like a GOP incumbent got Primaried yesterday.
SC-1.
Trump critic and supposed Fiscal Conservative was beat by Trump supporter.
One surprise was a Special Election for WI Senate District 1, Minn carpetbagger Dem Frostman won. One local issue was about 60% of homes have manure in their water - tap water, well water, shower water. For those unfamiliar, this area has fractured bedrock (Kewaunee County).
Although this particular Special Election was meaningless - but was demanded by Eric Holder - the word is that the identical matchup will occur in November. That could prove a problem for GOP and WI - and could bring a halt to FOXCONN just like PA Dems were able to do there. That project would bring LCD Screen Making to the continent for the first time, ground was broken in the past month or so. 15,000 manufacturing jobs.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
U.S. Inflation Accelerates to Six-Year High, Eroding Wages
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/u-s-inflation-at-si
x-year-high-eating-away-at-wage-increases
Obama saved the economy from Bush's failed presidency. Trump is doing what Bush did, and we're going to be the ones left holding the bag.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Democrats just won a Wisconsin special election Scott Walker didn’t want to have
It’s another round of big wins for Democrats in the Badger State.
https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17455922/wisconsin-special-elections-res
ults-june
"Democrats aren’t just running up the score in already-blue areas. The party made many of its biggest improvements over the 2016 presidential in districts Trump won in the South and Midwest. This goes to show that the 2016 elections don’t at all seem to have heralded doom for Democrats in regions that tipped to Trump — in fact, it’s many Republican-held seats in those regions that suddenly seem to be flipping to Democrats for the first time in years."
Thought I'd ruin your fantasy with some actual facts. You hate facts. They always prove you wrong.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Did you have some specific seats other than what I already Mentioned?
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Democrats just won a Wisconsin special election Scott Walker didn’t want to have
It’s another round of big wins for Democrats in the Badger State.
https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17455922/wisconsin-special-elections-res
ults-june
"Democrats aren’t just running up the score in already-blue areas. The party made many of its biggest improvements over the 2016 presidential in districts Trump won in the South and Midwest. This goes to show that the 2016 elections don’t at all seem to have heralded doom for Democrats in regions that tipped to Trump — in fact, it’s many Republican-held seats in those regions that suddenly seem to be flipping to Democrats for the first time in years."
Thought I'd ruin your fantasy with some actual facts. You hate facts. They always prove you wrong.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I filled in the info for the post of incumbents not running, and reposted the summary here.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Breakout of 51 Reps not running for reelection of their seats:
16 Dems, 35 GOP.
Retiring: 9 Dems, 23 GOP.
Running for Gov: 4 Dems, 5 GOP.
Running for Sen: 3 Dems, 7 GOP.
Context: in 2016 Hilliary took CO, MN, IL, WA, CA, OR, NV, NM, VA, HI, MD, DE, NJ, NY, NH, VT, ME, RI, CT, MA.
PA could be less predictable, with newly redrawn Districts, and Liberal/Conservative not conforming to norms nor to in-State counterparts.
Summary:
Likely safe Dems: (11)
AZ-9, HI-1, IL-4, MA-3, MD-6, MI-9, MI-13, NM-1, new PA-2, TX-16, TX-29.
Likely safe GOP: (36)
AZ-8, CA-39, CA-49, FL-6, FL-17, FL-27, ID-1, IN-4, IN-6, KS-2, MI-11, MS-3, NJ-2, NJ-11, NM-2, OH-12, OH-16, OK-1, new PA-5, new PA-7, new PA-9, new PA-11, new PA-14, SC-4, SDAL, TN-2, TN -6, TN-7, TX-2, TX-3, TX-5, TX-6, TX-21, TX-27, VA-6, WA-8, WV-3.
Likely flip to GOP:
NH-1, NV-3, NV-4, (3)
PPossible flip to GOP:
MN-1, MN-8, (2)
Dems need to gain 24 seats from GOP to take House Majority.
I had not noticed that NV-4 is actually a rematch of 2014. Barring Primary upset on June 12, the candidates will be the same 2.
Trump was stumping in MN. Sounds like most are expecting MN-8 to flip to GOP.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
U.S. Inflation Accelerates to Six-Year High, Eroding Wages
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/u-s-inflation-at-si
x-year-high-eating-away-at-wage-increases
Obama saved the economy from Bush's failed presidency. Trump is doing what Bush did, and we're going to be the ones left holding the bag.
Bill Clinton temporarily boosted the economy by selling us long term to China's interests.
GWB oversaw oil prices double early in his presidency, and then the housing bubble crash and the derivatives crash in the DOW that were both an inevitable collapse from a system designed to benefit the rich at the cost of the rest of us.
Obama completely destroyed the long term value of the dollar by instituting quantitative easing.
Runaway inflation is the long term effect of quantitative easing.
Buckle up, buttercup. This ride has only just begun.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Did you not see the sign? Please don't feed the trolls.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
U.S. Inflation Accelerates to Six-Year High, Eroding Wages
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/u-s-inflation-at-si
x-year-high-eating-away-at-wage-increases
Obama saved the economy from Bush's failed presidency. Trump is doing what Bush did, and we're going to be the ones left holding the bag.
Bill Clinton temporarily boosted the economy by selling us long term to China's interests.
GWB oversaw oil prices double early in his presidency, and then the housing bubble crash and the derivatives crash in the DOW that were both an inevitable collapse from a system designed to benefit the rich at the cost of the rest of us.
Obama completely destroyed the long term value of the dollar by instituting quantitative easing.
Runaway inflation is the long term effect of quantitative easing.
Buckle up, buttercup. This ride has only just begun.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
What does this have to do with the thread topic? Or are you second's sockpuppet today?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Did you not see the sign? Please don't feed the trolls.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
U.S. Inflation Accelerates to Six-Year High, Eroding Wages
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/u-s-inflation-at-si
x-year-high-eating-away-at-wage-increases
Obama saved the economy from Bush's failed presidency. Trump is doing what Bush did, and we're going to be the ones left holding the bag.
Bill Clinton temporarily boosted the economy by selling us long term to China's interests.
GWB oversaw oil prices double early in his presidency, and then the housing bubble crash and the derivatives crash in the DOW that were both an inevitable collapse from a system designed to benefit the rich at the cost of the rest of us.
Obama completely destroyed the long term value of the dollar by instituting quantitative easing.
Runaway inflation is the long term effect of quantitative easing.
Buckle up, buttercup. This ride has only just begun.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
What does this have to do with the thread topic? Or are you second's sockpuppet today?
Nah.... Second and RF are too busy blowing each other to operate any sockpuppets.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.
Like and agree
T
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JJ:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.
Like and agree
T
Why you haven't started doing it yet then.
I can only imagine that it has to do with the laziness and entitled attitudes that are associated with today's Leftists.
Calling somebody a Nazi or a Commie is not a legitimate argument.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:You whine about Nazi and Hitler. I don't recall you whining about reichwing. Is his your bias showing?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JJ:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.
Like and agree
T
Why you haven't started doing it yet then.
I can only imagine that it has to do with the laziness and entitled attitudes that are associated with today's Leftists.
Calling somebody a Nazi or a Commie is not a legitimate argument.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:You whine about Nazi and Hitler. I don't recall you whining about reichwing. Is his your bias showing?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:Why you haven't started doing it yet then.
Originally posted by JJ:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.
Like and agree
T
I can only imagine that it has to do with the laziness and entitled attitudes that are associated with today's Leftists.
Calling somebody a Nazi or a Commie is not a legitimate argument.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:You whine about Nazi and Hitler. I don't recall you whining about reichwing. Is his your bias showing?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:Why you haven't started doing it yet then.
Originally posted by JJ:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.
Like and agree
T
I can only imagine that it has to do with the laziness and entitled attitudes that are associated with today's Leftists.
Calling somebody a Nazi or a Commie is not a legitimate argument.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
lol... what bias?
It's obvious I don't care for the Right Wing all that much either. I've never made any bones about that. I've been known to call them Rethugs while calling the other side Demoncrats.
Don't much care for the term Reichwing either though. I figured that's just under the umbrella of Nazi/Fasisim that RF ironically posts every time he spews his diarrhea here.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Over the weekend this front runner was a serious victim in a fatal collision. After 2 major surgeries and some organs removed, she is expected to survive.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like a GOP incumbent got Primaried yesterday.
SC-1.
Trump critic and supposed Fiscal Conservative was beat by Trump supporter.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:The simple truth is lost on these trolls. They have to resort to ad hominems, because they know it's true, and have no argument.
Originally posted by JJ:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.
Like and agree
T
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:You defend your fascist president constantly. When have you not?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It's obvious I don't care for the Right Wing all that much either.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Gonna be hard getting all that egg off your mask the day after Election. Stick your head in a washing machine.Quote:The simple truth is lost on these trolls. They have to resort to ad hominems, because they know it's true, and have no argument.Quote:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.
Like and agree
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:We're well aware of the millions in dark money that the Kochs and Adelson (among others) will spend lying to gullible rednecks, but it's a sure bet that more people will make their voices heard.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Gonna be hard getting all that egg off your mask the day after Election. Stick your head in a washing machine.Quote:The simple truth is lost on these trolls. They have to resort to ad hominems, because they know it's true, and have no argument.Quote:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.
Like and agree
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Some videos play, some won't.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Another day of Primaries.
Libtards lost in droves all over the place.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I noticed that the Libtards over at Election Atlas are predicting a 3 Senator gain for Democrats. They usually don't face reality until much closer to the elections.
They even say a phantom Democrat will win a landslide against Gov Walker in WI. LOL.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I noticed that the Libtards over at Election Atlas are predicting a 3 Senator gain for Democrats. They usually don't face reality until much closer to the elections.
They even say a phantom Democrat will win a landslide against Gov Walker in WI. LOL.
I've long predicted a Republican sweep. The blue wave will be cancelled out in a number of ways.
Between the dark money and the Russian interference the Republicans concede, and will not do anything about, the American electoral system is no more effective at rooting out true evil than the Russian.
We are on the brink of becoming the 4th reich. I know that, as a Russian troll, that makes you happy.
As an American who isn't a sociopath and remembers freedom, and things like environmental laws, I think the parasite that is humanity will be rejected by its host, more sooner than later.
When the planet shuts us down, there won't be anything left to fight over.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Looks like it is another Tweak a Troll Twit Day.Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I noticed that the Libtards over at Election Atlas are predicting a 3 Senator gain for Democrats. They usually don't face reality until much closer to the elections.
They even say a phantom Democrat will win a landslide against Gov Walker in WI. LOL.
I've long predicted a Republican sweep. The blue wave will be cancelled out in a number of ways.
Between the dark money and the Russian interference the Republicans concede, and will not do anything about, the American electoral system is no more effective at rooting out true evil than the Russian.
We are on the brink of becoming the 4th reich. I know that, as a Russian troll, that makes you happy.
As an American who isn't a sociopath and remembers freedom, and things like environmental laws, I think the parasite that is humanity will be rejected by its host, more sooner than later.
When the planet shuts us down, there won't be anything left to fight over.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
It's been many moons since I heard about some blue wave.
Maybe they merely realized they're just waving goodbye.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I presume the pure irony is lost on you.
Originally posted by REAVERFAN:
The simple truth is lost on these trolls. They have to resort to ad hominems, because they know it's true, and have no argument.
THUGGER admits it's not about RUSSIA !!! and is, in fact, a witch hunt. "Trump better be innocent of any wrong doing, anywhere, anytime."
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Some videos play, some won't.
Was it this one?
Your link was:
h t t p s : // www. youtube .com...
you have to remove the "s" from the h t t p
h t t p : / / www. youtube .com...
(I've added spaces so the text of the link can be seen)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quite a few Primaries will be held on 14 August, which will deflate a lot of Libtard dreams.
But that has not stopped polls from making wildly speculating predictions in advance.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Sounds like some WWE actor won an Election somewhere, maybe TN. As a conservative Republican.
95 days til Mid-terms.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like some WWE actor won an Election somewhere, maybe TN. As a conservative Republican.
95 days til Mid-terms.
It was just a mayorial race. Wouldn't have even made the news anywhere if he wasn't a Pro Wrestler.
https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/02/kane-wwe-wrest
ler-glenn-jacobs-wins-knox-county-mayoral-race/851265002/
I never really paid all that much attention to Wrestling, even when I was a kid, but I do vaguely remember the name Kane. He might have even been a Wrestler when it was still the WWF.
EDIT: Yup. Kane joined the WWF in 1995. WWF didn't change their name to WWE until 2002. It looks like the World Wildlife Foundation had agreed to let Vince McMahon use the WWF in America, but not overseas. He blew them off as Wrestling became bigger and in 2002 a UK court ruled against McMahon and instead of fighting it he just changed it to WWE.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Yes, Mayor of a County.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like some WWE actor won an Election somewhere, maybe TN. As a conservative Republican.
95 days til Mid-terms.
It was just a mayorial race. Wouldn't have even made the news anywhere if he wasn't a Pro Wrestler.
https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/02/kane-wwe-wrest
ler-glenn-jacobs-wins-knox-county-mayoral-race/851265002/
I never really paid all that much attention to Wrestling, even when I was a kid, but I do vaguely remember the name Kane. He might have even been a Wrestler when it was still the WWF.
EDIT: Yup. Kane joined the WWF in 1995. WWF didn't change their name to WWE until 2002. It looks like the World Wildlife Foundation had agreed to let Vince McMahon use the WWF in America, but not overseas. He blew them off as Wrestling became bigger and in 2002 a UK court ruled against McMahon and instead of fighting it he just changed it to WWE.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Knox County includes Knoxville, the 3rd largest city in TN.
Like Cook County includes Chicago, and Los Angeles County includes some city in CA.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
We remain aware that the government has acknowledged Russian interference, yet the Republican congress has decided to back the fascist, rather than depose him. Looks like they all took money from the Russians.
Nothing is being done about it.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
We remain aware that the government has acknowledged Russian interference, yet the Republican congress has decided to back the fascist, rather than depose him. Looks like they all took money from the Russians.
Nothing is being done about it.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME