The Mid-Term Elections 2018
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Wednesday, September 18, 2019 08:06
VIEWED: 41367
PAGE 4 of 6
Quote:RCP currently D205 R199 D44 R50. Was recently D205 R201 apparently.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:RCP used to be what? On what date?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R
The gap is closing considerably.
I wonder what the October surprise will be.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Nate Silver? He's been telling the same lies, as I detailed above, since 2008.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I actually read polling data.
I've even pointed out in specific instances where the polls were obviously rigged because the demographic makeup was significantly not representative of the electorate in question.
I don't think that this is the norm though. It would be far too easy for people who actually look into things to debunk the whole lot of them if they were.
It's too early to say exactly when, but if we don't see the polls showing more accuracy overall by 2020, I expect it to be no later than 2022.
You don't even have to look at it from my point of view to see that this is likely to happen. Look at it from a business perspective. How many times can Nate Silver fail horribly before the Democrats stop viewing him as a virtual "safe space" for their desires and turn on him and start calling him a liar?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
So this is his 11th cycle of lies. How many more times before you wake up and realize he is lying?
Easy to debunk? I have provided a decent description above, and all of the facts support this truth. But how many people have allowed this to soak in - certainly not you. And then, how many will still remember the same in 2 years? For the past several decades, not that many, including everybody you talk with, apparently.
Those who can remember the same events happening every 2 years are known as Conservatives, or the Poll liars themselves.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
This is 538, Nate Silver's baby.
Posted again for you to reread, or in case you missed it:
Quote:Did you notice, according to that link, they had Trump at 28% on Election Day?
Originally posted by second:Quote:The poll for 2016 is still there at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted:
538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/
Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?
On November 6, 2016, 538 gave Trump a 35% chance of winning.
Why FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a better chance of winning than almost anyone else:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-
better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
Based upon your insipid delusional comments, I immediately assumed that the linky you provided would be no more than the standard useless blather that the Left has relied upon for decades.
That goes like this: in the final days before an Election, the Pollsters are forced to return to reality, after months of Spinning their lies. This is because their self-selected measure of Pollster accuracy is comparing actual Election results to the FINAL POLL taken, the Last Poll they took before the Election. This is their self-chosen gauge to provide credibility for all of their future Polls (their future work, income, money, influence, relevance.). So since they only measure that Last, Final Poll, then that is the ONLY POLL that they make any attempt to reflect reality.
This is the same for every Election.
However, you have accidentally provided a linky which actually swerved into reality, and is actually relevant - either you forgot that reality was included in this particular linky, or you were incapable of recognizing reality when you encountered it.
In that linky, the first actual graph I see, shows the "polling" results for the months leading up to the Election, although the specifics are completely ignored in written narrative filling that web page.
If you look at that graph, you may discover the Universal Truth about Election Polling. Look at October 2016. (We are right now in October 2018). See how the Pollsters feverishly toiled so diligently to sway the opinions of voters? They gave Trump about 13%, only 2-3 weeks before he won a majority of Electoral Votes.
For those who voted for Trump, this weak Tea likely had little effect on their strong minds. But for the weak-minded this tactic is essential - for Democrats, Socialists, Communists and other Liberals rely heavily upon the vote of the most weak-minded - and so they absolutely must sway those weak minds to vote for them. The weak-minded possess an intrinsic need to fit in, be like everybody else, be a part of the majority, so Liberal Pollsters cultivate the illusion that the majority of Americans are Liberals. Compared to the Reality which is revealed on Election Day. (Funny thing is, after decades of this, Liberals in News now actually believe their own Press Releases, and are clearly befuddled and bewildered when reporting Election Day Results.)
This is one reason Democrats push so heavily for voters to Vote Early, Vote Often, use Absentee Ballots, so the Votes can be cast before the Polls drift toward reality, and before the Evilness of the Democrats is revealed, in the final days before Election.
For decades now, the "Poll shift" has always been about 15% toward the Left at this point in the cycle. I just realized now that this graph actually confirms this historical trend - looks about 14-15% comparing 13-14% in October 2016 to their 28% on Election Day.
So if you view the polls today through the lens of historical trends, and consider the Election Day polls will miraculously shift about 15% to the right - as they always do - then how do you interpret today's polls?
Of course, Elections where Votes can only be cast by
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:The day before the number was 33% chance of winning. July 30th it was 50/50. If polling was the same as certainty, there would be no need to vote. Instead, ask the pollsters surveying only 1,000 who will win before the vote and save 137,500,000 people the bother of voting.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Did you notice, according to that link, they had Trump at 28% on Election Day?
Did you notice that Trump declared his voters were under-counted by 5,000,000 in 2016? Trump’s insistent complaints of “voter fraud” are a setup to deny the legitimacy of a Democratic majority in the House should the party win in the midterm elections.
Those who don’t believe such a scenario is possible haven’t been paying attention.
Trump has complained, without evidence, that as many as 5 million people voted illegally in the 2016 presidential election. Trump set up a commission to investigate the votes, but it has not substantiated his claims, nor has it issued any reports. Commission member Matthew Dunlap, Maine’s Democratic secretary of state, said the panel was the “most bizarre thing I’ve ever been a part of.”
Yet Trump keeps raising the issue. For example:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
All levels of government and Law Enforcement are watching carefully for VOTER FRAUD, including during EARLY VOTING. Cheat at your own peril. Violators will be subject to maximum penalties, both civil and criminal!
5:36 PM - 20 Oct 2018
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1053807130120200192
If the Democrats win a majority in the House, Republicans will claim the election was stolen, deny the legitimacy of the victory. Democrats will gain subpoena power, but expect the Trump administration to simply defy requests for information, the way they already are on issues like the Mar a Lago crowd's influence on the Veterans Administration. They'll use claims of voter fraud to justify their disregard of the law. In the very near future, many government officials will probably face hard decisions about whether to defy illegal orders from their political superiors. And remember, this is the good scenario where Democrats take control of the House of Representatives.
www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/paul-krugman-says-trump-might-deny-dem-ho
use-majority-victory_us_5bcd3df9e4b0d38b58799307
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I notice yesterday there were 3 polls on FL Gov, all on the same day. One had one guy ahead by 1%, another had him ahead 2%, another had the other guy ahead 5%. All polled the same day.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Nate Silver? He's been telling the same lies, as I detailed above, since 2008.
So this is his 11th cycle of lies. How many more times before you wake up and realize he is lying?
I'm not a fan of the guy. Why do you think that I'm not awake? I'm always talking about how polls are bullshit... particularly political polls.
I've also said that there are instances where polls are intentionally skewed.
Don't pretend that you thought Trump was going to win in 2016. I was the only one here who was convinced of it. I was the only one among my family and friends that was sure of it as well.
Just like in 2016, there is a "hidden vote" that is not being accounted for. I don't believe that, at least in general, this is an intentional snub. Many people who intend to vote Republican are keeping that fact close to the vest. Even if they're not afraid of being called a Nazi anymore since that word has lost all meaning because of goons like reaverfan, people aren't going to go out of their way and get into arguments with their own family and friends by saying so.
Democrats have become the party of incivility. The only real defense against this is just not talking about politics.
Quote:
Easy to debunk? I have provided a decent description above, and all of the facts support this truth. But how many people have allowed this to soak in - certainly not you. And then, how many will still remember the same in 2 years? For the past several decades, not that many, including everybody you talk with, apparently.
Those who can remember the same events happening every 2 years are known as Conservatives, or the Poll liars themselves.
You're not enlightened man. If anything, you show a lot of characteristics of the NPC meme that describes the ultra-liberal progressive left today. You're completely wrapped up in your own Fox News echo chamber.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Today 538 has changed to D217 R198
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D210 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup.
17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
Daily Kos changed to D206 R200.
So that is
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D202 R210 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D217 R198 D49 R50 538 (Tossup NV)
D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook
The interactive Senate Map there has D44 R50 now. Their tossups are IN, MO, FL, MT, NV, AZ.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I notice that each of those 5 show IN and MO as being Senate tossups, except 538 which shows them both Dem. But polls are already showing them as Dem losing.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
Daily Kos changed to D206 R200.
Today 538 has changed to D217 R198
So that is
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D202 R210 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D217 R198 D49 R50 538 (Tossup NV)
D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook
The interactive Senate Map there has D44 R50 now. Their tossups are IN, MO, FL, MT, NV, AZ.
Cook and CNN are Holding on to TN and/or TX being tossups, while everybody else knows they are Dem losses.
So, although they are not reporting it, they know the Senate will have at least 52 GoP. CNN hasn't updated since 9 April, apparently.
CNN, 538, Politico have Tester winning MT, but polls already show him losing, so that would switch another Dem seat to GoP.
This leaves NV, FL, and AZ as tossups.
Reality intruding:
D44 R53 Daily Kos
D44 R53 CNN
D44 R53 Politico
D46 R53 538
D44 R53 Cook
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 has changed to D217 R198
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
Daily Kos changed to D206 R200.
So that is
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D202 R210 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D217 R198 D49 R50 538 (Tossup NV)
D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook
The interactive Senate Map there has D44 R50 now. Their tossups are IN, MO, FL, MT, NV, AZ.
And Cook to D209 R196.
New Monmouth poll today boosts Rohrabacher up 5%, to 50%.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I have noticed this.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I actually read polling data.
I've even pointed out in specific instances where the polls were obviously rigged because the demographic makeup was significantly not representative of the electorate in question.
Have you observed any polls in this cycle which you believe are valid or not rigged?
Where the poll's Conservative respondents were not artificially suppressed or absent in the results?
Or do you really, really believe that a couple weeks before the last Election there were only 14% of Americans who were going to vote for Trump, and more than 80% who were going to vote for Hilliary?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I have noticed this.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I actually read polling data.
I've even pointed out in specific instances where the polls were obviously rigged because the demographic makeup was significantly not representative of the electorate in question.
I do remember a particular Florida poll in 2016 where the amount of hispanic voters polled equaled 3 times the actual demographic makeup of the state. Although they didn't outright say that they intentionally polled far more Democrats than they should have, this should have been inferred by anybody who read through the demographic breakdown.
Quote:
Have you observed any polls in this cycle which you believe are valid or not rigged?
Where the poll's Conservative respondents were not artificially suppressed or absent in the results?
Honestly, I haven't looked that deeply into it this year. The only race that matters in my state is Donnely (D) trying to keep his senate seat. He's quite moderate and rather well liked in my state. I personally will be voting against him after his party-line vote against Kavanaugh, but I have no idea how the voters in the rest of the state are going to vote.
Quote:
Or do you really, really believe that a couple weeks before the last Election there were only 14% of Americans who were going to vote for Trump, and more than 80% who were going to vote for Hilliary?
I didn't believe that. You can go back to 2016 and see that I was the only person here who was sure that Trump was going to be elected. Hindsight is 20/20, but you might recall that nobody really believed that Hillary would lose.
The race seems to be much closer this time around according to the polls, so it wouldn't be so much of an upset if they're wrong as it was in 2016. I'm sure that some of these polls are intentionally skewed in favor of the Democrats, but I don't think that most of them are. Even Fox News predicts that Democrats will control the house. I give that 50/50.
People don't want to say they're voting Republican when they know that they're going to be called alt-right or a Nazi for saying so. The polls can't possibly account for that unless they actually factored that into the equation and tried to base it on how off they were 2 years ago when they didn't take this into account.
The October Surprise is 14,000 strong and on its way to the border. I guess we'll just have to see how that plays out.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I have noticed this.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I actually read polling data.
I've even pointed out in specific instances where the polls were obviously rigged because the demographic makeup was significantly not representative of the electorate in question.
I do remember a particular Florida poll in 2016 where the amount of hispanic voters polled equaled 3 times the actual demographic makeup of the state. Although they didn't outright say that they intentionally polled far more Democrats than they should have, this should have been inferred by anybody who read through the demographic breakdown.Quote:
Have you observed any polls in this cycle which you believe are valid or not rigged?
Where the poll's Conservative respondents were not artificially suppressed or absent in the results?
Honestly, I haven't looked that deeply into it this year. The only race that matters in my state is Donnely (D) trying to keep his senate seat. He's quite moderate and rather well liked in my state. I personally will be voting against him after his party-line vote against Kavanaugh, but I have no idea how the voters in the rest of the state are going to vote.Quote:
Or do you really, really believe that a couple weeks before the last Election there were only 14% of Americans who were going to vote for Trump, and more than 80% who were going to vote for Hilliary?
I didn't believe that. You can go back to 2016 and see that I was the only person here who was sure that Trump was going to be elected. Hindsight is 20/20, but you might recall that nobody really believed that Hillary would lose.
The race seems to be much closer this time around according to the polls, so it wouldn't be so much of an upset if they're wrong as it was in 2016. I'm sure that some of these polls are intentionally skewed in favor of the Democrats, but I don't think that most of them are. Even Fox News predicts that Democrats will control the house. I give that 50/50.
People don't want to say they're voting Republican when they know that they're going to be called alt-right or a Nazi for saying so. The polls can't possibly account for that unless they actually factored that into the equation and tried to base it on how off they were 2 years ago when they didn't take this into account.
The October Surprise is 14,000 strong and on its way to the border. I guess we'll just have to see how that plays out.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
"Fox News says Dems will take control of House."
I'm thinking this is the Fox News owned and mismanaged by Libtard Murdoch son #1 and Libtard Murdoch son #2.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
"you might recall that nobody really believed that Hillary would lose"
Including me! Now, my 'not Hillary' protest vote didn't count for spit in California, so I felt no personal responsibility one way or the other for my part in the result. But I was shocked as hell at the way it ended up.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 has changed to D217 R198
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
Daily Kos changed to D206 R200.
So that is
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D202 R210 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D217 R198 D49 R50 538 (Tossup NV)
D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook
The interactive Senate Map there has D44 R50 now. Their tossups are IN, MO, FL, MT, NV, AZ.
And Cook to D209 R196.
And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted.
New Monmouth poll today boosts Rohrabacher up 5%, to 50%.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
RCP showing 205D to 200R.
It's also showing Trump's approval at 44.3%, which except for a single day on June 4th (44.4%) is the highest it's ever been.
I've believe that there's a 50/50 chance for the house to remain GOP if he goes beyond 45% by election day. More if there is as large of a hidden turnout that I expect.
Everybody's already forgotten about Kavanaugh. This entire thing is going to ride on the outcome of the "caravan" reality TV show.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:One point Nat Silver of 538 has made over and over again in recent weeks is that even if you take his House and Senate forecasts at face value, when you think about both of them together, there’s around a 40 percent chance that one of them will be wrong.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP showing 205D to 200R.
It's also showing Trump's approval at 44.3%, which except for a single day on June 4th (44.4%) is the highest it's ever been.
I've believe that there's a 50/50 chance for the house to remain GOP if he goes beyond 45% by election day. More if there is as large of a hidden turnout that I expect.
Everybody's already forgotten about Kavanaugh. This entire thing is going to ride on the outcome of the "caravan" reality TV show.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
He elaborated on this on Twitter this week, making a point that’s important to understand — that a “very normal-sized polling error” in either direction could result in a dramatically different outcome:
This is a unique election in which there will be big practical consequences if polls are off by even a relatively modest amount in *either* direction. Although a House-Senate split is the most likely outcome, there's still a 35-40% chance that one party wins both chambers.
If polls underestimate Republicans by 2-3 points — which is a very normal-sized polling error — the House is a district-by-district nail-biter.
If polls underestimate Dems by 2-3 points, their path to victory in the Senate is much more viable; toss-ups go their way, TN/TX close etc.
More at www.vox.com/2018/10/24/18009356/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-2
018-forecast-analysis
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Now that polls show Senate Dems losing in both NV and MO, today 538 changed to D48 R50 - with NV and MO as tossups. With Dem losing in MT, they still call that a win for their team, the Dems.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 has changed to D217 R198
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
So that is
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D202 R210 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D217 R198 D49 R50 538 (Tossup NV)
D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook
The interactive Senate Map there has D44 R50 now. Their tossups are IN, MO, FL, MT, NV, AZ.
And Cook to D209 R196.
And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted.
New Monmouth poll today boosts Rohrabacher up 5%, to 50%.
Polls show a tight race in NJ, which all 5 of these call a Dem win. NJ is of course stuck in a media bubble, so they might be gullible enough to give a squeaker Dem win. Otherwise, historical trend shows that Dems lose NJ for Senate.
13 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Trying to rationalize bias and slant? Polls which have a 3 point Dem lead are called for Dems, but with a 7 point Dem Deficit they are calling Tossup.
Originally posted by second:Quote:One point Nat Silver of 538 has made over and over again in recent weeks is that even if you take his House and Senate forecasts at face value, when you think about both of them together, there’s around a 40 percent chance that one of them will be wrong.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP showing 205D to 200R.
It's also showing Trump's approval at 44.3%, which except for a single day on June 4th (44.4%) is the highest it's ever been.
I've believe that there's a 50/50 chance for the house to remain GOP if he goes beyond 45% by election day. More if there is as large of a hidden turnout that I expect.
Everybody's already forgotten about Kavanaugh. This entire thing is going to ride on the outcome of the "caravan" reality TV show.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
He elaborated on this on Twitter this week, making a point that’s important to understand — that a “very normal-sized polling error” in either direction could result in a dramatically different outcome:
This is a unique election in which there will be big practical consequences if polls are off by even a relatively modest amount in *either* direction. Although a House-Senate split is the most likely outcome, there's still a 35-40% chance that one party wins both chambers.
If polls underestimate Republicans by 2-3 points — which is a very normal-sized polling error — the House is a district-by-district nail-biter.
If polls underestimate Dems by 2-3 points, their path to victory in the Senate is much more viable; toss-ups go their way, TN/TX close etc.
More at www.vox.com/2018/10/24/18009356/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-2
018-forecast-analysis
If you are believing this hocum, you must believe that a couple weeks before Election Day 2016, only 13% of Americans really really were going to vote for Trump, and over 80% were really really going to vote for Hilliary. Translated: you're delusional.
The valid question remains: what do you all think will be the excuse used to rationalize the Poll shift to the right in the next week or so?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Well... to be fair, Silver has learned his lessons and is hedging his bets well. He's been able to show the Democrats "winning" every single day leading up to the election, but for the most part it's overall within the so-called margin of error.
He's already built in his excuse, and according to Second there he's already coming out and defending his polling weeks ahead of time by essentially saying "it's so close that there's a very good chance I'm entirely wrong again".
Like I said earlier, they're not making the same mistake as they did last year when they were showing Clinton's chances of winning at well over 80%.
Hell... maybe his reasoning for being much closer this time is that he already is considering the "hidden vote". I doubt very much that's the case though, and if you looked at individual polls in toss up states it wouldn't reflect that idea.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:You are suggesting he considers the hidden vote to be for Dems, while you indicate it would be against Dems.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Well... to be fair, Silver has learned his lessons and is hedging his bets well. He's been able to show the Democrats "winning" every single day leading up to the election, but for the most part it's overall within the so-called margin of error.
He's already built in his excuse, and according to Second there he's already coming out and defending his polling weeks ahead of time by essentially saying "it's so close that there's a very good chance I'm entirely wrong again".
Like I said earlier, they're not making the same mistake as they did last year when they were showing Clinton's chances of winning at well over 80%.
Hell... maybe his reasoning for being much closer this time is that he already is considering the "hidden vote". I doubt very much that's the case though, and if you looked at individual polls in toss up states it wouldn't reflect that idea.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
When polls show the Dems losing a race, he calls it a Tossup or a Dem win. That is not considering a hidden vote FOR Trump, but against.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:How about the obvious? A pollster asks and is given a solid, hard answer although the pollster knows perfectly well that any answers are tentative. The person asked is trying to project certainty, but they may very well change their minds. If the pollster asked me, I'm not changing my mind, but I have never been asked. There are many wishy-washy people out there who will be swayed by, say, a bunch of bombs being mailed to Democrats. But if the Democrats don't hammer the point that Republicans are trying murder them, the wishy-washy will forget the bombs because Democrats won't keep talking about it and the wishy-washy only remember the "Caravan" because Trump talks about it everyday in every way he can think of. Within a week they will drift back toward the GOP.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Well... to be fair, Silver has learned his lessons and is hedging his bets well. He's been able to show the Democrats "winning" every single day leading up to the election, but for the most part it's overall within the so-called margin of error.
He's already built in his excuse, and according to Second there he's already coming out and defending his polling weeks ahead of time by essentially saying "it's so close that there's a very good chance I'm entirely wrong again".
Like I said earlier, they're not making the same mistake as they did last year when they were showing Clinton's chances of winning at well over 80%.
Hell... maybe his reasoning for being much closer this time is that he already is considering the "hidden vote". I doubt very much that's the case though, and if you looked at individual polls in toss up states it wouldn't reflect that idea.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politicians-packages/potential-explosiv
es-sent-to-hillary-clinton-obama-time-warner-idUSKCN1MY1ZE
www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politicians-package-whitehouse/no-suspi
cious-package-addressed-to-white-house-source-idUSKCN1MY24B
The GOP is claiming that Democrats bombed Democrats to win in 2018.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/far-right-says-bomb-threats-fa
lse-flag-democrats.
Without any evidence, members of the far-right media, think tank heads, and Twitter activists shared their conspiratorial theories on social media.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Obama makes namby-pamby speeches. I understand that Obama is an ex-president and feels the need for a certain decorum, but times have changed. Decorum isn’t a big part of national politics these days. How about this instead? When you read it, try to imagine it in Obama’s voice:
The entire Republican Party is dedicated to lying all the time. Climate change is a hoax. Sexual assault victims are making stuff up. Tax cuts are for the middle class. Heh. That’s because the closest they ever come to a real middle class voter is some Wall Street broker making a million dollars a year. And now they’re lying about terrorists marching their way up through Mexico to kill us all. They’re all just lies and everyone knows it. The Republican Party has turned into the party of lies.
There used to be at least a few Republicans compassionate enough to feel bad about ripping immigrant children from their mothers. Not anymore. The ugliest, meanest parts of the Republican Party love it when Jeff Sessions takes those babies away. It gets big cheers at all those creepy rallies that Donald Trump puts on for Fox News. The Republican Party has turned into the party of hate.
Democrats believe in the rule of law. Donald Trump believes the attorney general’s job is to help his friends and punish his enemies. And what do Republicans think of this? Well, the ones in Congress sure don’t seem to have any problem with it. The Republican Party has turned into the party of corruption.
Obama's namby-pamby speeches just aren’t having any effect and aren’t getting any coverage. He needs to be a champion for the Democratic Party, not just for civic virtue in general.
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/10/obama-is-doing-the-political-ra
lly-thing-all-wrong/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Hey! Since we're going to start speaking for Obama, how about this one...
Imagine it, in Obama's voice:
Go fuck yourself, Kevin Drum.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
David Corn's witty intro before Kevin Drum's "story"
Quote:
“The Most Important Election of Our Lives.” That's my new column, and you hear it every time, but this year really is the most important contest in decades (or at least since 2016).
That's not clever. Which is it?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
6ix, if you are paying attention then you should be shocked at how clever Trump was:
Republicans will totally protect people with Pre-Existing Conditions, Democrats will not! Vote Republican.
5:45 AM - 24 Oct 2018
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1055077740792160256
Hopefully, Trump is easy to understand. What he said is plainly different than the truth on preexisting conditions: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) that Obama pushed through Congress is why we have pre-existing conditions protections in the first place, and Trump has been attacking it for years. The Trump administration is currently arguing in federal court that the part of the ACA requiring pre-existing conditions to be covered is unconstitutional. A recent Trump administration rule makes it easier for states to get waivers that would allow their ACA coverage to exclude such protections; another makes it easier for citizens to meet their ACA requirements with short-term limited-duration (STLD) plans that also exclude those protections.
http://alicublog.blogspot.com/2018/10/time-to-go-full-goebbels.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
6ix, if you are paying attention then you should be shocked at how clever Trump was:
Republicans will totally protect people with Pre-Existing Conditions, Democrats will not! Vote Republican.
5:45 AM - 24 Oct 2018
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1055077740792160256
Hopefully, Trump is easy to understand. What he said is plainly different than the truth on preexisting conditions: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) that Obama pushed through Congress is why we have pre-existing conditions protections in the first place, and Trump has been attacking it for years. The Trump administration is currently arguing in federal court that the part of the ACA requiring pre-existing conditions to be covered is unconstitutional. A recent Trump administration rule makes it easier for states to get waivers that would allow their ACA coverage to exclude such protections; another makes it easier for citizens to meet their ACA requirements with short-term limited-duration (STLD) plans that also exclude those protections.
http://alicublog.blogspot.com/2018/10/time-to-go-full-goebbels.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Don't get me started on healthcare. That entire system is broke and I doubt there is ever going to be any fixing it.
Ever since the ACA came out, middle class Americans have paid anywhere from 15% to 40% increases on their monthly dues every year, just to keep it afloat.
Do you realize that people who don't have a lot of money would be forced to "voluntarily" drop their coverage once it becomes completely unaffordable?
Unlike some other long term problems, this is something that would start happening within the next 5 or so years when these insurance costs started truly breaking the bank.
I suspect that since there will no longer be a tax penalty for not having insurance that many people will start going without health insurance next year because of these costs.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Think how much money would be saved if you don't spend anything on healthcare. But if you do want to spend, in 2016 it was $9,364 per person per year in the USA, about 50% higher than the next most expensive country, Switzerland, and about 100% more than Canada. Maybe the Swiss know something that the GOP should check into, know what I mean? Maybe a field trip to Canada or somewhere else would give Trump and the GOP ideas that reduce costs.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Don't get me started on healthcare. That entire system is broke and I doubt there is ever going to be any fixing it.
Ever since the ACA came out, middle class Americans have paid anywhere from 15% to 40% increases on their monthly dues every year, just to keep it afloat.
Do you realize that people who don't have a lot of money would be forced to "voluntarily" drop their coverage once it becomes completely unaffordable?
Unlike some other long term problems, this is something that would start happening within the next 5 or so years when these insurance costs started truly breaking the bank.
I suspect that since there will no longer be a tax penalty for not having insurance that many people will start going without health insurance next year because of these costs.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/10/the-opportunity-costs-of-capita
lism/
www.commonwealthfund.org/sites/default/files/documents/___media_files_
publications_fund_report_2017_may_mossialos_intl_profiles_v5.pdf
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:And now, later in the day, 538 has also changed to D216 R198. This is backing off their certainty of Dems taking control of House.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Now that polls show Senate Dems losing in both NV and MO, today 538 changed to D48 R50 - with NV and MO as tossups. With Dem losing in MT, they still call that a win for their team, the Dems.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Cook to D209 R196.
And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted.
13 days to go.
So that is:
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R198 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D44 R48 Cook
D205 R200 D44 R50 RCP
And at RCP, something called NTU has D47 R53. Maybe that is No Toss Up. Where they call FL, MT, and IN for Dems, even tho MT and IN polls have Dems losing. They call NV, AZ, MO for GoP.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Sense might be returning to MSM, Polls:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/senate-slipping-away-dems-fight-preserve-blu
e-wave-225449107--election.html
NEW YORK (AP) — In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It's whether there will be a wave at all.
Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats' narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats.
"It's always been an inside straight, and it still is," Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said of Democrats' outlook in the Senate, where they need to pick up two seats while holding on to several others in Republican-leaning states to seize the majority. "If it had been a different year, with a different map, we might have had a terrific sweep. That would be a long shot."
While the trend may be troubling for Democrats, the evolving political landscape remains unsettled two weeks before Election Day, even with millions of votes already cast across 20 states.
There are signs that the Democrats' position in the expanding House battlefield may actually be improving. Yet Republican candidates locked in tight races from New York to Nevada find themselves in stronger-than-expected positions because of a bump in President Donald Trump's popularity, the aftermath of a divisive Supreme Court fight and the sudden focus on a caravan of Latin American migrants making an arduous trek toward the U.S. border.
Democrats say they never assumed it would be easy.
"It's still much closer than people think, with a surprise or two in the wings," New York's Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, told The Associated Press.
The midterm elections will decide whether Republicans maintain control of Congress for the final two years of Trump's first term. Even if Democrats lose the Senate and win the House, they could block much of Trump's agenda and use subpoena power to investigate his many scandals. Some in the party's far-left wing have also vowed to impeach the president, while others promise to roll back the Republican tax overhaul and expand health care coverage for all Americans.
Democrats have enjoyed an overwhelming enthusiasm advantage for much of the Trump era. They hope an explosion of early voting across states like Florida, Texas and Nevada is further proof of their enthusiasm gap.
It took voters in the Houston area less than six hours Monday to set a new opening day record for early voting during a midterm election. And in some Florida counties, two and three times as many voters cast ballots on the first day of early voting Monday compared to four years ago.
Public and private polling, however, suggests the GOP is getting more excited as Nov. 6 approaches.
"Republican enthusiasm doesn't quite equal the white-hot enthusiasm of Democratic voters, but the Kavanaugh hearings got it pretty close," said GOP consultant Whit Ayres.
He also attributes the party's strong position on an unusual Senate map. Democrats are defending 26 seats of the 35 seats in play, including 10 in states that Trump carried in 2016. Ayres calls it "maybe the most Republican-leaning map of our lifetimes."
He expects the GOP to maintain the Senate majority, perhaps adding a seat or two to its current 51-49 edge. Others have begun to envision the GOP picking up as many as four or five new seats.
Democrats, meanwhile, have effectively protected their Senate candidates in states across the Midwest — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — that helped give Trump the presidency in 2016. They are increasingly pessimistic about picking up any seats, however.
The Tennessee Senate contest, in particular, has shifted sharply in Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn's direction in recent weeks, while Democrat
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
So here is a question: if Gillum wins FL Gov race, will all of the undercover FBI agents in his corrupt Tallahassee Mayoral administration be reassigned to a different case, leaving the Gillum corruption unpursued, or will the FBI expand their investigation to the Governor's Office?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Think how much money would be saved if you don't spend anything on healthcare.
Yeah. Because healthcare grows on trees.
The real secret the hospitals don't want you to know is that their actual cost of operations is nothing and every penny they charge is 100% profit.
Are you sure you're rich. Because you don't seem to know much about money.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I do hope you don't believe what you wrote. A quarter of hospital expenditure, or roughly $215 billion, comes from administrative costs. These costs include marketing expenditure, overheads associated with performing administrative tasks, and the salaries paid to employees responsible for coding and billing. U.S. hospitals spend more on administrative costs than foreign hospitals because of factors in the U.S. such as per-patient billing and the need for administrative staff to negotiate multiple contracts. However, more careful money management could help local hospitals reduce their spending by more than $150 billion out of the $215 billion they spend now.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The real secret the hospitals don't want you to know is that their actual cost of operations is nothing and every penny they charge is 100% profit.
https://healthcaremba.gwu.edu/blog/the-top-costs-associated-with-runni
ng-a-hospital/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
What I wrote is sarcasm.
I'm all about looking into Single Payer options that cut out all the fat.
But we never talk about that.
The ACA did nothing but prop up the insurance company Ponzi Scheme and all of the bad medicinal practices that lead to all of these insane costs.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Sarcasm does not actually work in print. It requires tone of voice. Watch any comedy on TV to see how it is done. The following is not sarcasm and it should change the election, but it won't:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What I wrote is sarcasm.
I'm all about looking into Single Payer options that cut out all the fat.
But we never talk about that.
The ACA did nothing but prop up the insurance company Ponzi Scheme and all of the bad medicinal practices that lead to all of these insane costs.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Trump uses a personal iPhone that’s insecure and routinely surveilled by Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies. Despite being warned repeatedly about this, he continues to use it to call up his friends and yak all night long. White House officials say they hope he refrains from discussing classified information.
Trump is a Republican, right? This is the party that spent two years pretending to be outraged that Hillary Clinton used an unclassified network to respond to an email about a phone call to the newly-elected president of Malawi. But their reaction to the president of the United States chatting merrily away on a phone that we know the Russians and Chinese are listening in on? Apparently nothing.
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/10/donald-trump-chats-with-russian
-and-chinese-spies-each-night/
American spy agencies learned that China and Russia were eavesdropping on the president’s cellphone calls from human sources inside foreign governments and intercepting communications between foreign officials.
www.nytimes.com/2018/10/24/us/politics/trump-phone-security.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:If your claims are accurate, that the administrator saves money by negotiating lower costs, then deleting that role would bloat the expenses outside of admin - possibly more than the cost of the admin for this task.
Originally posted by second:Quote:I do hope you don't believe what you wrote. A quarter of hospital expenditure, or roughly $215 billion, comes from administrative costs. These costs include marketing expenditure, overheads associated with performing administrative tasks, and the salaries paid to employees responsible for coding and billing. U.S. hospitals spend more on administrative costs than foreign hospitals because of factors in the U.S. such as per-patient billing and the need for administrative staff to negotiate multiple contracts. However, more careful money management could help local hospitals reduce their spending by more than $150 billion out of the $215 billion they spend now.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The real secret the hospitals don't want you to know is that their actual cost of operations is nothing and every penny they charge is 100% profit.
https://healthcaremba.gwu.edu/blog/the-top-costs-associated-with-runni
ng-a-hospital/
Drastically reduced total costs make the percentage (25%) of admin look larger than it would be without the savings. Who would be happier if the full total was large enough to make that admin portion only 15%?
Otherwise, most of those admin costs are Government mandated nonsense. Obamacare has exploded these costs. These Obamacare costs thrust upon medical facilities are the primary reason I have heard Doctors needed to fold up shop - Obamacare paperwork put them out of business, they were required to spend most of their time on paperwork instead of providing Medical Care.
I agree with eliminated the Government Mandated, such as delete Obamacare, but can't say I agree with the cost-saving functions of admin - those must be saving more funds than what that function costs. The only argument to avoiding that cost-saving is to distribute Medical Care bloat to external parties and suppliers.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:That site lists a new Poll today.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:And now, later in the day, 538 has also changed to D216 R198. This is backing off their certainty of Dems taking control of House.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Now that polls show Senate Dems losing in both NV and MO, today 538 changed to D48 R50 - with NV and MO as tossups. With Dem losing in MT, they still call that a win for their team, the Dems.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
13 days to go.
So that is:
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R198 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D44 R48 Cook
And at RCP, something called NTU has D47 R53. Maybe that is No Toss Up. Where they call FL, MT, and IN for Dems, even tho MT and IN polls have Dems losing. They call NV, AZ, MO for GoP.
Stabenow of MI has lost 9 points from her lead, and now polls at less than 50% of Likely Voters. But the pundits chosen by, and listed at that site show her to be solid Blue, Safe. With 12 days remaining, perhaps reality is beginning to intrude, or that mysterious unforeseen "poll shift" is starting to show. Stabenow's crazy has long been overdue for a Retirement.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
This is a repost of the OP, for those who have missed reading it, or forgot.
The Trolls have been getting rambunctious and off-topic. There is room in this forum for Other, more specific topic threads instead of hijacking this thread.
Quote:Update from this OP, Senate Seats have changed since then. McCain's Seat is not included in this change, is not in this Election.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This November 6 all House Representatives, or their seats, will face reelection. And about 1/3 of the 100 Senators, currently scheduled to be 34. Minnesota has the rare event that both Senate seats are up for Election.
It would be nice if we could keep this thread focused on this Election analysis, discussion or predictions.
The 34 Senate seats include 8 Republican seats, 24 Democrat seats, and 2 Independent seats, who caucus with Democrats.
Historically, Liberals lose percentage of seats in midterms because they cannot expect to ride the coattails of the surge in voters like the President cycle. Office Holders must rely upon stable, solid, sturdy voters to find their way to the voting booths, and most of the fair weather voters are Liberals.
17 States have no Senate Election this year. Of the 33 States with a Senate Election, MN and MS have Special Elections on the same ballot for their 2nd Senate seat. For a total of 35 Senate Elections.
I haven't looked into it yet, but I've seen implications that MN might have a combined Election, meaning the top 2 vote getters become Senator, instead of specific separate races for each seat.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
With 12 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
CA, HI,
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1), VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY, NE,
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 6%, 47-41
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 4%, 49-45
MT 3%, 46-43
NJ 5%, 51-46
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 11%, 50-39
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48.
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority:
AZ GoP 2%, 48-46
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 1%, 47-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 6%, 51-45
FL,
TN GoP 3%, 47-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Today a new poll for FL Senate has them 45% and 46%. Assuming that poll has a Left tilt, that means the Dem loses. If there is no slant in the poll, then FL could be an actual Tossup.
With less than 47%, 538 calls that for Dems.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:You are not reading 538 correctly. What it said at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/florida/ is this:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Today a new poll for FL Senate has them 47% and 46%. Assuming that poll has a Left tilt, that means the Corrupt Dem Gillum loses. If there is no slant in the poll, then FL could be an actual Tossup.
With less than 48%, 538 calls that for Dems.
Date of Poll: Oct 23-25
Pollster was Siena College/New York Times
308 Likely Voters were asked who they would vote for.
51% said Nelson (D)
41% said Scott (R)
Which leaves 8% of the voters polled don’t know which way is up. 51%+41%+8%=100%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/se
nate/florida/
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2018
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I did not look at the 538 site, it is unreadable on my device. And I know better than to believe nonstop liars NYT.
Originally posted by second:Quote:You are not reading 538 correctly. What it said at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/florida/ is this:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Today a new poll for FL Senate has them 47% and 46%. Assuming that poll has a Left tilt, that means the Corrupt Dem Gillum loses. If there is no slant in the poll, then FL could be an actual Tossup.
With less than 48%, 538 calls that for Dems.
Date of Poll: Oct 23-25
Pollster was Siena College/New York Times
308 Likely Voters were asked who they would vote for.
51% said Nelson (D)
41% said Scott (R)
Which leaves 8% of the voters polled don’t know which way is up. 51%+41%+8%=100%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/se
nate/florida/
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2018
I misstated the results of the Strategic Research Assoc. Poll, which was 46%, 45%, 9% from 800 LV +/- 3.5%
This is listed at 270towin.com as well as the readable 538 prediction map & table.
I corrected my incorrect figure in the post you quoted.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updated with new poll for NM.
With 40% of the vote, Libs are calling this a win.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 11 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY, NE,
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 4%, 49-45
MT 3%, 46-43
NJ 5%, 51-46
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 11%, 50-39
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48.
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority:
FL
AZ GoP 2%, 48-46
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 1%, 47-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 6%, 51-45
TN GoP 3%, 47-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Now RCP is D205 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:And now, later in the day, 538 has also changed to D216 R198. This is backing off their certainty of Dems taking control of House.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Cook to D209 R196.
And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted.
So that is:
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R198 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D44 R48 Cook
D205 R200 D44 R50 RCP
And at RCP, something called NTU has D47 R53. Maybe that is No Toss Up. Where they call FL, MT, and IN for Dems, even tho MT and IN polls have Dems losing. They call NV, AZ, MO for GoP.
And CNN is D206 R199
And 538 is D214 R199
Plus Crosstab changed to 199 Dark Blue.
Cook changed to D43 R48 (tossups are TX, TN, NV, AZ, FL, MT, NJ, IN, MO)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Now RCP is D205 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:And now, later in the day, 538 has also changed to D216 R198. This is backing off their certainty of Dems taking control of House.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Cook to D209 R196.
And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted.
So that is:
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R198 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D44 R48 Cook
D205 R200 D44 R50 RCP
And at RCP, something called NTU has D47 R53. Maybe that is No Toss Up. Where they call FL, MT, and IN for Dems, even tho MT and IN polls have Dems losing. They call NV, AZ, MO for GoP.
And CNN is D206 R199
And 538 is D214 R199
Plus Crosstab changed to 199 Dark Blue.
Cook changed to D43 R48 (tossups are TX, TN, NV, AZ, FL, MT, NJ, IN, MO - looks like NJ, MT are new)
So that is:
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D214 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R199 D44 R50 RCP
With 11 days remaining.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I just want to say again ... thanks! for the running updates.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Did you see the Senate Summary, with Pumpkin and Green highlights?
Originally posted by 1kiki:
I just want to say again ... thanks! for the running updates.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
No - but it sounds festive.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:It was posted Friday afternoon. It disagrees with the pundit consensus.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
No - but it sounds festive.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Lauren Hollis at Townhall.com has an article "Making of a Red Wave"
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Reposted for top of page reference:
Updated with new poll for NM.
With 40% of the vote, Libs are calling this a win.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 11 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY, NE,
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 4%, 49-45
MT 3%, 46-43
NJ 5%, 51-46
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 11%, 50-39
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48.
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority:
FL
AZ GoP 2%, 48-46
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 1%, 47-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 6%, 51-45
TN GoP 3%, 47-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Today RCP changed to D205 R201.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Now RCP is D205 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today it says Optimus changed to D209 R197.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Cook to D209 R196.
And 538 to D218 R198. This is actual control of the House being predicted.
And CNN is D206 R199
And 538 is D214 R199
Plus Crosstab changed to 199 Dark Blue.
Cook changed to D43 R48 (tossups are TX, TN, NV, AZ, FL, MT, NJ, IN, MO - looks like NJ, MT are new)
So that is:
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D214 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R199 D44 R50 RCP
With 11 days remaining.
On 3 October this was D206 R189. Hmmmm. Is this a Right Shift, toward reality and away from the Fake Lib slant? I think somebody around here has said this would happen, as it does every single cycle.
On 23 October the averages of the above 7 were:
D208.9 R198.7 D45.2 R49.5
Now is:
D208.3 R198.9 D44.8 R49.5
Golly, D falling, R gaining. I've heard somebody mentioning that common trend somewhere.
9 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
New poll today has FL tied at 46%.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY, NE,
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 4%, 49-45
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 51-46 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 11%, 50-39
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48. D43 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48. D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 2%, 48-46
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 1%, 47-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 6%, 51-45
TN GoP 3%, 47-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59. D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.
435 Seats up for Election.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:This is from 16 October.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I notice 538 also has 190 solid blue on their spectrum.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today Optimus has changed. D 202 R 210.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, changes are:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196
Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.
3 weeks to go.
Dems only won 194 last time, while riding Hilliary's coattails. Currently have 193.
Something called Crosstab has 197 Dark Blue. Wonder if anybody takes that one seriously.
538 is now up to 192 solid blue.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I finally remembered that I had posted this on 20 October.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Here is an interesting part of that site.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
This is the table version of the Optimus House Predictions, which is the most right-leaning of the polls shown at this point. Currently D202 R210
https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/index_show_table.php?map_
title=0ptimus-house-forecast
Now, I can point out that, with the exception of the Rock-The-Vote mistake of 2006, the past few decades of Mid-Terms result in GoP gains, restoring a modicum of reason to Congress.
So their prediction specifies that:
Likely Dems include Current 6D, plus 3R that will flip.
Leaning Dems include current 6D, plus 6R that will flip.
Tossups include current 2D, plus 21R that are going to flip.
Leaning GoP include current 1D that is going to flip, plus 28R.
Likely GoP include current 1D that is going to flip, plus 40R.
This means, of 438 Seats, only 2 Dems will flip to GoP in a Mid-Term Election. That seems hilarious.
For me, at least, this seems clear that the massive number of flips from GoP to Dem in a Mid-term is the opposite of historical trend. Seems Liberals cannot learn from History.
Let's see how this list of projected counter-trend of flips will emerge on Election Day. Ha ha.
Current GoP Likely to flip to Dem:
NJ-2 Open
PA-6
PA-13
Current GoP Leaning to flip to Dem;
AZ-2 OPEN
CA-49 OPEN
CO-6
MN-3
NJ-11 OPEN
VA-10
Current GoP considered Tossup to flip to Dem:
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39 OPEN
CA-45
CA-48
FL-26
FL-27 OPEN
IA-1
IL-6
KS-2 OPEN
KS-3
KY-6
MI-11 OPEN
MN-2
NC-9 OPEN
NJ-3
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
TX-7
TX-32
Current Dems Leaning toward flip to GoP:
MN-1 OPEN
Current Dems Likely to flip to GoP:
PA-14 Lamb
Anybody think that bias in the slate will hold up for 3 weeks?
For observers of Real World Elections, this delusion is incredulous.
16 States. AZ, CA, CO, KS, MI, MN, NJ, NC, KY, PA, FL, NY, TX, IA, IL, VA.
States not in that list:
AK, AL, AR, DE, LA, WI, IN, TN, SC, MS, GA, MD, NE, MT, ID, UT, OR, WA, WV, VT, NH, ME, RI, OH, HI, MA, CT, WY, NM, MO, ND, SD, NV, OK.
I will try to build upon it.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Today RCP changed to D205 R201.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Now RCP is D205 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And CNN is D206 R199
And 538 is D214 R199
Plus Crosstab changed to 199 Dark Blue.
Cook changed to D43 R48 (tossups are TX, TN, NV, AZ, FL, MT, NJ, IN, MO - looks like NJ, MT are new)
So that is:
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D214 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R199 D44 R50 RCP
With 11 days remaining.
9 days to go.
Today RCP changed to D205 R200.
8 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
New poll today has FL tied at 46%.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY, NE,
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 4%, 49-45
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 51-46 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 11%, 50-39
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus isD45 R48.D43 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would beD41 R48.D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 2%, 48-46
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 1%, 47-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 6%, 51-45
TN GoP 3%, 47-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could beD41 R59.D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
Just to be clear, an unbiased evaluation would have TX, IN, NV moved from Tossup to likely GoP win. However, that would dash any prospect of Dems getting a Majority in the Senate. So they perpetuate their hopeful illusion.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updated with new NJ poll.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY, NE,
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 4%, 49-45
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 11%, 50-39
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48. D43 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48. D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 2%, 48-46
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 1%, 47-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 6%, 51-45
TN GoP 3%, 47-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59. D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
8 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Today RCP changed to D205 R200.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today RCP changed to D205 R201.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Now RCP is D205 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And CNN is D206 R199
And 538 is D214 R199
Plus Crosstab changed to 199 Dark Blue.
Cook changed to D43 R48 (tossups are TX, TN, NV, AZ, FL, MT, NJ, IN, MO - looks like NJ, MT are new)
So that is:
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D214 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R199 D44 R50 RCP
With 11 days remaining.
9 days to go.
And 538 D216 R196
And Politico D208 R199
So that is:
D206 R200 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 Optimus
D208 R199 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R196 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R200 D44 R50 RCP
8 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Those are very discrepant predictions, and the numbers haven't gotten closer yet. It'll be interesting to see who's been 'righter'.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I don't think any of those 7 are righter. Not D48, perhaps D43 due to the lack of commitment on Tossups. Not D216 either.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Those are very discrepant predictions, and the numbers haven't gotten closer yet. It'll be interesting to see who's been 'righter'.
Those are only displaying their Left Bias.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.
435 Seats up for Election.
Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.
Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.
If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.
Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.
If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.
Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.
The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17
The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34
The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39
CA-49 Open Dem 14%, 53-39
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41
The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34
The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45
The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46
CA-45 Dem 7%, 52-45
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45
IA-3 Dem 2%, 43-41
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 45-44
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43
NY-22 Dem 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43
VA-7 Dem 1%, 46-45
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39
If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.
Tossups add 15 R, and 12 D. This brings totals to D216 R216, with 3 Ties.
But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.
So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D216 R219.
But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be D213 R222.
And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be D206 R229.
Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I forgot to point out if the "called" races were those with, say, 6% or more lead, and less were "Tossups" then the picture would be:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.
435 Seats up for Election.
The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.
Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.
Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.
If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.
Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.
If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.
Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.
The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17
The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34
The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39
CA-49 Open Dem 14%, 53-39
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41
The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34
The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45
The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46
CA-45 Dem 7%, 52-45
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45
IA-3 Dem 2%, 43-41
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 45-44
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43
NY-22 Dem 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43
VA-7 Dem 1%, 46-45
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39
If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.
Tossups add 15 R, and 12 D. This brings totals to D216 R216, with 3 Ties.
But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.
So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D216 R219.
But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be D213 R222.
And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be D206 R229.
Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.
Lean D currently D has all 3 move to Tossup. Call becomes D203 R200 T32.
Lean D currently R has 3 move to Tossup. Call becomes D200 R200 T35.
Of the so-called Tossups, 2 move to Dem, 3 to GoP. Call becomes D202 R203, T30. Of which 13 are polling GoP Leads, 14 are polling Dem Leads, and 3 are Ties.
Since this is not a Rosy picture for Libs, they are churning out a narrative to help you ignore the facts.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Today RCP has changed to D204 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today RCP changed to D205 R200.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And 538 D216 R196
And Politico D208 R199
So that is:
D206 R200 T29 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R196 T23 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R200 T30 D44 R50 RCP
8 days to go.
And Optimus to D208 R198.
And Cook D209 R197.
7 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Lots of new polls today.
I'll try to update.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 4%, 49-45
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48. D43 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48. D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 2%, 48-46
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 3%, 49-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 3%, 47-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59. D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
7 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Adding a tag for those which voted Trump in 2016.
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.
435 Seats up for Election.
The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.
Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.
Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.
If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.
Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.
If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.
Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.
The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17
The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35 DJT
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39 DJT
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34
The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39
CA-49 Open Dem 14%, 53-39
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38 DJT
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41
The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34 DJT
The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45 DJT
The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46
CA-45 Dem 7%, 52-45
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45
IA-3 Dem 2%, 43-41 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39 DJT
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 Dem 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41 DJT
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43 DJT
VA-7 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39
If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.
Tossups add 15 R, and 12 D. This brings totals to D216 R216, with 3 Ties.
But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.
So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D216 R219.
But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be D213 R222.
And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be D206 R229.
Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today RCP has changed to D204 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today RCP changed to D205 R200.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And 538 D216 R196
And Politico D208 R199
So that is:
D206 R200 T29 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D209 R197 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R196 T23 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, MO)
D209 R196 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D205 R200 T30 D44 R50 RCP
8 days to go.
And Optimus to D208 R198.
And Cook D209 R197.
7 days to go.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.
There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground
They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).
RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP
6 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I did hear reasons why 2 seats are so close.
AZ only has a RINO (McSally) as option to Ms. Taliban.
NJ only has a RINO as option to the crook Dem.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updated with some of the Poll figures today.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 4%, 49-45
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48. D43 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48. D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 2%, 48-46
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 3%, 49-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 9%, 50-41
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59. D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
6 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updated with some of the Poll figures today.
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 5%, 45-40 this was moved to Tossup after this summary was originally posted
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 10%, 52-42 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48. D42 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48. D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 7%, 52-45
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 3%, 49-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 8%, 52-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59. D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
5 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:RCP changed to D203 R198 T34.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today RCP has changed to D204 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Optimus to D208 R198.
And Cook D209 R197.
7 days to go.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.
There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground
They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).
RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP
6 days to go.
5 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Polls are also showing Fienstein with 7% lead, 36-29, and consistently well under 50%. But her challenger is another Democrat, so not really any change other abusing women for political gain.
Polls showing Tie at 47 for WI Gov.
And it looks like Oregon might get it's first GoP Gov in something like 40 years. This is a Mail Vote State, so the actual votes might be already cast, and maybe poll answers are starting to reflect what vote was cast.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I heard that Montana's Libertarian candidate for Senate has withdrawn from the race and endorsed the Republican candidate.
For the pundits admitting that 50 Republican Senators would hold upcoming seats prior to this, this would make 51 GoP Senators.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I don't think that anybody but Nate Silver has had the illusion that the GOP wasn't taking the senate for over a month now.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Every pundit listed at that 270towin site has been steadfastly avoiding any number over 50 Senators for GoP. That would dash their hopes.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I don't think that anybody but Nate Silver has had the illusion that the GOP wasn't taking the senate for over a month now.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:RCP changed to D203 R198 T34.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today RCP has changed to D204 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Optimus to D208 R198.
And Cook D209 R197.
7 days to go.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.
There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground
They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).
RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP
6 days to go.
Last Monday 538 changed to 192 Dark Blue. Today changed to 190 Dark Blue.
And by the end of the day, RCP was D203 R195 T37. That is 37 Tossups compared to 19 Tossups from 538.
5 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:RCP changed to D203 R198 T34.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.
There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground
They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).
RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP
6 days to go.
Last Monday 538 changed to 192 Dark Blue. Today changed to 190 Dark Blue.
And by the end of the day, RCP was D203 R195 T37. That is 37 Tossups compared to 19 Tossups from 538.
5 days to go.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP
4 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updating with polls from CA, IA:
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.
435 Seats up for Election.
The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.
Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.
Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.
If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.
Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.
If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.
Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.
The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17
The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35 DJT
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39 DJT
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34. HC
The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39 HC
CA-49 Open Dem 7%, 51-44 HC
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38 HC
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38 DJT
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39 HC
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC
The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34 DJT
The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45 DJT
The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 7%, 52-45 HC
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39 DJT
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44 HC
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 Dem 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41 DJT
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43 DJT
VA-7 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC
If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.
Tossups add 15 R, and 12 D. This brings totals to D216 R216, with 3 Ties.
But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.
So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D216 R219.
But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be D213 R222. D212 R223.
And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be D206 R229.
Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.
4 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updated with some of the Poll figures today. WI has Dem 9%, from the same group giving 5%, 51-46 for WI Gov (which is Tie elsewhere).
So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.
With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.
No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.
Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.
Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32
Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32
So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.
Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 5%, 45-40 this was moved to Tossup after this summary was originally posted
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 9%, 53-44 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43
Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40
Without Tossups, pundit consensus is D45 R48. D42 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be D41 R48. D40 R48.
Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 7%, 52-45
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 3%, 49-46
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 8%, 52-44
FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be D41 R59. D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.
4 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I heard something about FL Senate candidate Scott. Of all the Elections he has won, every single one was polled showing him losing.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updating with polls from CA:
I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.
435 Seats up for Election.
The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.
Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.
Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.
If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.
Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.
If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.
Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.
The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17
The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35 DJT
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39 DJT
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34. HC
The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39 HC
CA-49 Open Dem 7%, 51-44 HC
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38 HC
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38 DJT
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39 HC
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC
The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34 DJT
The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45 DJT
The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 2% 48-46 HC
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39 DJT
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44 HC
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 Dem 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41 DJT
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43 DJT
VA-7 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC
If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.
Tossups add 15 R, and 12 D. This brings totals to D216 R216, with 3 Ties.
But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.
So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D216 R219.
But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be D213 R222. D212 R223.
And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be D206 R229. D205 R230.
Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.
3 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
A 2017 article in the peer-reviewed American Political Science Review analyzed 49 field experiments to assess the effectiveness of campaigns’ traditional tactics. “We argue that the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans’ candidates choices in general elections is zero,” the article concludes.
More at https://qz.com/1449789/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
A 2017 article in the peer-reviewed American Political Science Review analyzed 49 field experiments to assess the effectiveness of campaigns’ traditional tactics. “We argue that the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans’ candidates choices in general elections is zero,” the article concludes.
More at https://qz.com/1449789/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Wow. Just what we need. An app that lets a bunch of idiots brow-beat other idiots into voting based off of feels.
Quote:
The app doesn’t try to change anyone’s mind. Opinions are usually too hardened for that.
No. But what it DOES do is let every idiot with an opinion judge their friends and family members based off of their PRIVATE voting records, and it should be outlawed.
Quote:
The most consistent and effective way to boost turnout, argues Donald Green, a political scientist at Columbia University, is through conversations and encouragement from people we trust.
Encouragement? That's a laugh. You're going to have people like T calling you dummies and people like reaverfan calling you nazis. These people will be your best friends and your siblings.
I'm no stranger to voting lists, so I know how it works and I also know that there won't be any information in there about me either way because I don't vote in primaries. This is the only way they get the little "D" or "R" by your name.
I've never voted in a primary since I know that, and now that an app like this exists I'm glad my insider knowledge from years ago kept me from ever doing it. It's why I get political mailers from both sides.
I also don't have a cell phone and won't be on any friend's lists, so according to the info on how the app works, they won't be able to pull me up anyhow.
Just one more reason that people should remove social media and all of its intrusions from their lives.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
This was today's headline from CNN
"With the midterms just days away, CNN's Key Race ratings moves six contests in favor of the Democrats"
'key races' '6 contests' moved ... OK, this is intriguing ... click on the link ...
"CNN Key Races: Six races move toward Democrats as battle for control of the House enters the home stretch"
Uhhhhh ... I haven't thought of House control as being a battle for a while now. Anything for a headline, I guess.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/03/politics/cnn-house-key-races-final-
update/index.html
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I suspect the polls are not accurate. Probably a bit more accurate than in 2016, but nothing to bet on.
We won't know what the actual results are until the last vote is tallied.
But, yeah. None of the polls have ever shown that the house was a battle. Even the heavily Republican biased Optimus outlier shows a drastically different outcome the other way.
What I find to be interesting about this all is how grossly intriguing it is. On face value, both the Senate and House race outcomes seem to have been set in stone for months now, which should make them about as interesting to watch as a sporting event that was a blowout in the first period.
But OTOH, since polls have become so inaccurate, it's like we're watching a game where even though it seems one side is dominating the other, nobody has bothered to keep the score.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Once bit - twice shy! I was surprised with Hillary, and it's in the back of my mind that the polls could be equally erroneous this time around. So I'm watching with great interest to see the final pollster score. Still, the MEDIA hasn't been calling it a 'battle' for House control for weeks. They've been flogging the dem advantage. So why start calling it a 'battle' now? I dunno - stir up drama, like this is some phonied-up 'reality' tv show? Get more clicks? Sway the vote?
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
The worst outcome would be a tie in the House. I would rather the Dems eek out a one seat victory than a tie. The MSM would love that though. Every single tie in the house that Pence would have to be the tie breaker for would be a scandal.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:You know what should be outlawed? Making promises that are lies: Instead of running on the tax bill they already passed, Republicans are trying to convince voters with a new (nonexistent) one. It’s been about two weeks since President Donald Trump said Republicans would deliver a 10 percent tax cut to the middle class before the 2018 midterm elections. Of course it was never going to happen.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No. But what it DOES do is let every idiot with an opinion judge their friends and family members based off of their PRIVATE voting records, and it should be outlawed.
You know what else should be outlawed? Not remembering. Trump knows the majority of voters won't, can't, remember even 1% of what he says, which frees him. "Trump says there’s another tax cut on the way." www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/21/18005468/trump-tax-cut-midd
le-class-2-0
I can remember the last tax cut from Trump and who got the money: me and Trump.
U.S. borrowing on pace to top $1.3 trillion this year, the highest since 2010
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/30/us-borrowing-pace-top-trill
ion-this-year-highest-since/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.763a00d4571b
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Yeah, whatever.
The app should be outlawed.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I looked around for something that would really give 6ixStringJack the creepy-crawlers about his "violated" privacy and I found it:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yeah, whatever.
The app should be outlawed.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
If you have a driver's license, you are automatically registered to vote in 13 states and the District of Columbia. More states are expected to pass the reform soon.
Going full automatic, your ballot is mailed to you in Oregon. Never miss an election, automatically. Anybody who can make "X" can vote.
6ixStringJack would have to avoid Oregon because they make voting so easy for everybody, even Jehovah's Witnesses who might accidentally fall into sinfulness by voting (they religiously object to voting www.jw.org/en/jehovahs-witnesses/faq/political-neutrality/ ).
More at www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/11/map-of-the-day-automatic-voter-
registration/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:With 3 days to go, I found no changes in any predictions at the site.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.
There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground
They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).
RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP
6 days to go.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.
So that is:
D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP
4 days to go.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Are you expecting Dems to win control of House?
Originally posted by 1kiki:
This was today's headline from CNN
"With the midterms just days away, CNN's Key Race ratings moves six contests in favor of the Democrats"
'key races' '6 contests' moved ... OK, this is intriguing ... click on the link ...
"CNN Key Races: Six races move toward Democrats as battle for control of the House enters the home stretch"
Uhhhhh ... I haven't thought of House control as being a battle for a while now. Anything for a headline, I guess.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/03/politics/cnn-house-key-races-final-
update/index.html
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:What do you think the results will be? How many R and D in the House? I haven't been looking elsewhere than that 270towin site.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I suspect the polls are not accurate. Probably a bit more accurate than in 2016, but nothing to bet on.
We won't know what the actual results are until the last vote is tallied.
But, yeah. None of the polls have ever shown that the house was a battle. Even the heavily Republican biased Optimus outlier shows a drastically different outcome the other way.
What I find to be interesting about this all is how grossly intriguing it is. On face value, both the Senate and House race outcomes seem to have been set in stone for months now, which should make them about as interesting to watch as a sporting event that was a blowout in the first period.
But OTOH, since polls have become so inaccurate, it's like we're watching a game where even though it seems one side is dominating the other, nobody has bothered to keep the score.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:What would be the number of each Party in a Tie?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The worst outcome would be a tie in the House. I would rather the Dems eek out a one seat victory than a tie. The MSM would love that though. Every single tie in the house that Pence would have to be the tie breaker for would be a scandal.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Who is this Pence that would be a Tie breaker of the House?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:You know what should be outlawed? Making promises that are lies: Instead of running on the tax bill they already passed, Republicans are trying to convince voters with a new (nonexistent) one. It’s been about two weeks since President Donald Trump said Republicans would deliver a 10 percent tax cut to the middle class before the 2018 midterm elections. Of course it was never going to happen.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No. But what it DOES do is let every idiot with an opinion judge their friends and family members based off of their PRIVATE voting records, and it should be outlawed.
You know what else should be outlawed? Not remembering. Trump knows the majority of voters won't, can't, remember even 1% of what he says, which frees him. "Trump says there’s another tax cut on the way." www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/21/18005468/trump-tax-cut-midd
le-class-2-0
I can remember the last tax cut from Trump and who got the money: me and Trump.
U.S. borrowing on pace to top $1.3 trillion this year, the highest since 2010
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/30/us-borrowing-pace-top-trill
ion-this-year-highest-since/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.763a00d4571b
What the heck is net marketable borrowing?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:I looked around for something that would really give 6ixStringJack the creepy-crawlers about his "violated" privacy and I found it:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yeah, whatever.
The app should be outlawed.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
If you have a driver's license, you are automatically registered to vote in 13 states and the District of Columbia. More states are expected to pass the reform soon.
Going full automatic, your ballot is mailed to you in Oregon. Never miss an election, automatically. Anybody who can make "X" can vote.
6ixStringJack would have to avoid Oregon because they make voting so easy for everybody, even Jehovah's Witnesses who might accidentally fall into sinfulness by voting (they religiously object to voting www.jw.org/en/jehovahs-witnesses/faq/political-neutrality/ ).
More at www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/11/map-of-the-day-automatic-voter-
registration/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Though I'm not a fan of Oregon's mailed ballots, I don't have any problem with being automatically registered to vote when you get a driver's license.
None of what you just posted is a violation of privacy even close to the level of that voting history app.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:In Oregon, the government knows that everybody voted, each in their own special way. You end up in either 3 groups of "voters" or the 4th group that told Oregon they opted out: 1) You marked your ballot and returned it in the mail. 2) You returned in the mail a blank ballot or ballot where you voted for both Dem and GOP or you scribbled obscenities on the ballot before mailing it back. 3) You returned your ballot to the garbage can rather than the Postman. 4) You opted out if you were a Jehovah's Witness or had some religious objection to having a ballot mailed to you.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Though I'm not a fan of Oregon's mailed ballots, I don't have any problem with being automatically registered to vote when you get a driver's license.
None of what you just posted is a violation of privacy even close to the level of that voting history app.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:The Federal government will borrow $4.3 trillion in 2018. $3 trillion of that is debt that is simply debt being rolled over because the bond, note, or bill matured in 2018. Subtract $3 from $4.3 to get $1.3 trillion
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/30/us-borrowing-pace-top-trill
ion-this-year-highest-since/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.763a00d4571b
What the heck is net marketable borrowing?
in “net marketable borrowing”.
That $1.3 trillion goes into Trump’s bank account and my account as tax cuts,
which is nice for me, Trump, and his friends.
Quote:https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm535
Privately-held "net marketable borrowing" excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA), but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME