The Mid-Term Elections 2018
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Wednesday, September 18, 2019 08:06
VIEWED: 41367
PAGE 3 of 6
Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
We remain aware that the government has acknowledged Russian interference, yet the Republican congress has decided to back the fascist, rather than depose him. Looks like they all took money from the Russians.
Nothing is being done about it.
Yup. Everybody is a Russian dude. Or a Nazi. Or whatever...
Where you gonna run? Where you gonna hide?
Nowhere.
Because there's no one like you left.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:What is the Troll jabbering about? The Stuttermonkey fascist who supported and engaged in Election interference was already deposed on 20 January 2017.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
We remain aware that the government has acknowledged Russian interference, yet the Republican congress has decided to back the fascist, rather than depose him. Looks like they all took money from the Russians.
Nothing is being done about it.
Yup. Everybody is a Russian dude. Or a Nazi. Or whatever...
Where you gonna run? Where you gonna hide?
Nowhere.
Because there's no one like you left.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Democrats just won a Wisconsin special election Scott Walker didn’t want to have
It’s another round of big wins for Democrats in the Badger State.
https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17455922/wisconsin-special-elections-res
ults-june
"Democrats aren’t just running up the score in already-blue areas. The party made many of its biggest improvements over the 2016 presidential in districts Trump won in the South and Midwest. This goes to show that the 2016 elections don’t at all seem to have heralded doom for Democrats in regions that tipped to Trump — in fact, it’s many Republican-held seats in those regions that suddenly seem to be flipping to Democrats for the first time in years."
Thought I'd ruin your fantasy with some actual facts. You hate facts. They always prove you wrong.
I predict Trump admitting his son, son in law and others conspired with the Russians to interfere with our election process, will have a negative effect on the republicans chances of keeping the house.
T
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
Democrats just won a Wisconsin special election Scott Walker didn’t want to have
It’s another round of big wins for Democrats in the Badger State.
https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17455922/wisconsin-special-elections-res
ults-june
"Democrats aren’t just running up the score in already-blue areas. The party made many of its biggest improvements over the 2016 presidential in districts Trump won in the South and Midwest. This goes to show that the 2016 elections don’t at all seem to have heralded doom for Democrats in regions that tipped to Trump — in fact, it’s many Republican-held seats in those regions that suddenly seem to be flipping to Democrats for the first time in years."
Thought I'd ruin your fantasy with some actual facts. You hate facts. They always prove you wrong.
I predict Trump admitting his son, son in law and others conspired with the Russians to interfere with our election process, will have a negative effect on the republicans chances of keeping the house.
T
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Quote:Is this where you posted some Mid-terms trend of Presidential party losing seats?
Originally posted by 1kiki:Quote:Quote:
Democrats just won a Wisconsin special election Scott Walker didn’t want to have
It’s another round of big wins for Democrats in the Badger State.
https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17455922/wisconsin-special-elections-res
ults-june
"Democrats aren’t just running up the score in already-blue areas. The party made many of its biggest improvements over the 2016 presidential in districts Trump won in the South and Midwest. This goes to show that the 2016 elections don’t at all seem to have heralded doom for Democrats in regions that tipped to Trump — in fact, it’s many Republican-held seats in those regions that suddenly seem to be flipping to Democrats for the first time in years."
Thought I'd ruin your fantasy with some actual facts. You hate facts. They always prove you wrong.
I predict Trump admitting his son, son in law and others conspired with the Russians to interfere with our election process, will have a negative effect on the republicans chances of keeping the house.
You may want to temper that data with the view that every Liberal since JFK had losses. Bush41, Ford, Nixon were Liberals. 2006 was Rock-The-Vote.
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Tuesday had Primaries in KS, MI, MO, WA, and Special Election in OH.
Looks like OH-12 was won by GOP, the 3rd Republican to hold that seat since some John Kasich guy won it from the Dems in 1982.
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I have not been keeping track of the minor clashes very well, but this Tuesday has Primary Elections, including in WI.
If Conservative Leah Vukmir can win against the lifelong liberal, then Tammy Baldwin can be retired in November.
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Vukmir, huh?
Sounds suspiciously "Russian".
Muller is investigating.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Her maiden name might be Greek, not sure.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Vukmir, huh?
Sounds suspiciously "Russian".
Muller is investigating.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Born in Milwaukee, raised in the suburbs, all schools in WI, all of her Nursing employment in WI, sons in Military Service.
Obviously nothing suspicious there, so obviously Mueller will need to investigate for decades-old Jaywalking and littering infractions.
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Quote:I'm an American. You're the troll, comrade. And you're lying, yet again.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:]What is the Troll jabbering about? The Stuttermonkey fascist who supported and engaged in Election interference was already deposed on 20 January 2017.
You have to be as much a sociopath as Blumpy. Nothing else can explain it.
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Quote:Interesting.Quote:I'm an American. You're the troll, comrade. And you're lying, yet again.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:]What is the Troll jabbering about? The Stuttermonkey fascist who supported and engaged in Election interference was already deposed on 20 January 2017.
You have to be as much a sociopath as Blumpy. Nothing else can explain it.
Are you denying the Drug-Dealer-in-Chief did not ignore the Russian interference, insisting on letting it perpetuate?
Are you denying he did not feverishly conspire and interfere with Democratic Elections in other Nations, such as Israel?
Or are your delusions based on other quicksand?
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Quote:Polls also open in MN, CT, VT.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have not been keeping track of the minor clashes very well, but this Tuesday has Primary Elections, including in WI.
If Conservative Leah Vukmir can win against the lifelong liberal, then Tammy Baldwin can be retired in November.
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Quote:In the WI race for Senate, the Conservative won on the GOP side.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have not been keeping track of the minor clashes very well, but this Tuesday has Primary Elections, including in WI.
If Conservative Leah Vukmir can win against the lifelong liberal, then Tammy Baldwin can be retired in November.
The opponent is a lifelong Democrat and Liberal (under the likes of Clinton and Obama, no less), past President of College Democrats, supporter and fund donator to current Liberal useless Democrap Senator Baldwin, and he outspent Vukmir by $8 Million in this GOP Primary campaign. Fortunately he lost by 7% margin.
WI does not have open Primaries.
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I appreciate you keeping up with this topic as well. I read it but don't generally post.
THUGGER admits it's not about RUSSIA !!! and is, in fact, a witch hunt. "Trump better be innocent of any wrong doing, anywhere, anytime."
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Quote:It was elsewhere, but I don't remember.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Is this where you posted some Mid-terms trend of Presidential party losing seats?
You may want to temper that data with the view that every Liberal since JFK had losses. Bush41, Ford, Nixon were Liberals. 2006 was Rock-The-Vote.
You have to click on the wiki link, since the data table isn't separately postable. But in general, the party of the president in office loses seats in Congress during off-year elections. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election#Historica
l_record_of_midterm_elections
THUGGER admits it's not about RUSSIA !!! and is, in fact, a witch hunt. "Trump better be innocent of any wrong doing, anywhere, anytime."
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Quote:??
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Interesting.Quote:I'm an American. You're the troll, comrade. And you're lying, yet again.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:]What is the Troll jabbering about? The Stuttermonkey fascist who supported and engaged in Election interference was already deposed on 20 January 2017.
You have to be as much a sociopath as Blumpy. Nothing else can explain it.
Are you denying the Drug-Dealer-in-Chief did not ignore the Russian interference, insisting on letting it perpetuate?
Are you denying he did not feverishly conspire and interfere with Democratic Elections in other Nations, such as Israel?
Or are your delusions based on other quicksand?
Have you forgotten how to compose a reply post?
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Quote:hahahahahahahaha. This was from 8 July.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I noticed that the Libtards over at Election Atlas are predicting a 3 Senator gain for Democrats. They usually don't face reality until much closer to the elections.
They even say a phantom Democrat will win a landslide against Gov Walker in WI. LOL.
Before the Primaries, a phantom unnamed Democrat was going to defeat Gov Walker by 17%.
Now that the Democraps have selected a loser and failure to be their gubernatorial candidate resulting from the Primary, Gov Scott Walker suddenly has a 2% lead, perplexing Libtards.
Libtard Tony Evers is such a failure that the only Office he's been able to hold is Supervisor for Dept of Public Instruction. He only has 2,000 of the fully funded Public Schools to try to keep up with underfunded Charter, Private, Voucher Schools. And he is able to get 120 of them to fail - which is 6% of complete failure. No word on how many are on the verge of failure. Plus he kept a teacher employed who spent his classtime watching porn and sexually harassing teen student girls. Yes, this teacher was in the 2nd District, which was Tammy Baldwin's seat.
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If the primaries are any indication, it shows that the coming "Blue Wave" is anything but a lock. Although, in many of those primaries, Republicans have lost significant ground and fears are that in deep red territory, purple may
be the new color in town.
Well, that's my analysis.
Attention All Dems - VOTE like a Motherfucker. I thank you!
SGG
\
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This November 6 all House Representatives, or their seats, will face reelection. And about 1/3 of the 100 Senators, currently scheduled to be 34. Minnesota has the rare event that both Senate seats are up for Election.
It would be nice if we could keep this thread focused on this Election analysis, discussion or predictions.
The 34 Senate seats include 8 Republican seats, 24 Democrat seats, and 2 Independent seats, who caucus with Democrats.
Historically, Liberals lose percentage of seats in midterms because they cannot expect to ride the coattails of the surge in voters like the President cycle. Office Holders must rely upon stable, solid, sturdy voters to find their way to the voting booths, and most of the fair weather voters are Liberals.
SENATE - currently 51 R, 47 D, 2 I.
8 REPUBLICAN
3 Republican Senators are retiring, in AZ, TN, UT. Utah considered safe R. Arizona could be tossup after RINO Flake. Tennessee likely to replace RINO Corker with more solid R.
WY, TX, NE, MS expect no change.
Nevada could be a tossup.
24 DEMOCRAT - none are seeking retirement.
14 Expect no change: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN (1), NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA, VA
4 Possible flip: FL, MN (1), OH, WI
6 Tossup: IN, MO, MT, ND, PA, WV
2 INDEPENDENT
Maine - might be tossup
Vermont - expected to remain Sanders.
So, Democrats could easily lose 11 Senators. Or they might flip 2, but certainly still lose the total count.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Seems to be 194 Democrat seats to 241 Republican seats. But currently 193 D seats and 238 R seats are held, with 4 vacant.
Looks like in the last midterms 2014 GOP gained 13 seats, and in 2016 Dems gained back 6 seats. 2010 midterms GOP gained 63 House seats.
What particular races do you find interesting?
In Wisconsin Speaker Ryan faces a repeated attempt to Primary him from some apparent Nazi guy. I'm not concerned with either the Primary or General Election for Ryan.
Wisconsin Junior Senator Tammy Baldwin is expected to lose her seat. She was Elected in 2012 (51%) because she had no competition running against a RINO in the General Election after the Primary wiped out 3 strong Conservatives and the RINO escaped (34% beating 31%, although 66% voted Conservative). Somewhat funny that she was running against Tommy Thompson because when she ran for either State Legislature or Congress she stole the Tommy campaign logo, making it Tammy. She has accomplished nothing, but gets plenty of play in Madison (Gay & Lesbian Capital of the World) due to being Lesbian. So Democraps would lose a seat.
So what other contests are on your radar? And how might they effect the balance in Congress?
Update from the 3 March post summary: gain of 3 for GOP, leaving 191 D to 244 R.
Update from the 16 March post: gain of 5 for GOP, leaving 186 D to 249 R.
Update after May Primaries: NC could lose 2 R, and WV-3 could lose an R. Leaving 189 D to 246 R.
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Quote:What is the gamma protection rating on your blinders?
Originally posted by SHINYGOODGUY:
If the primaries are any indication, it shows that the coming "Blue Wave" is anything but a lock. Although, in many of those primaries, Republicans have lost significant ground and fears are that in deep red territory, purple may
be the new color in town.
Well, that's my analysis.
Attention All Dems - VOTE like a Motherfucker. I thank you!
SGG
\Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This November 6 all House Representatives, or their seats, will face reelection. And about 1/3 of the 100 Senators, currently scheduled to be 34. Minnesota has the rare event that both Senate seats are up for Election.
It would be nice if we could keep this thread focused on this Election analysis, discussion or predictions.
The 34 Senate seats include 8 Republican seats, 24 Democrat seats, and 2 Independent seats, who caucus with Democrats.
Historically, Liberals lose percentage of seats in midterms because they cannot expect to ride the coattails of the surge in voters like the President cycle. Office Holders must rely upon stable, solid, sturdy voters to find their way to the voting booths, and most of the fair weather voters are Liberals.
SENATE - currently 51 R, 47 D, 2 I.
8 REPUBLICAN
3 Republican Senators are retiring, in AZ, TN, UT. Utah considered safe R. Arizona could be tossup after RINO Flake. Tennessee likely to replace RINO Corker with more solid R.
WY, TX, NE, MS expect no change.
Nevada could be a tossup.
24 DEMOCRAT - none are seeking retirement.
14 Expect no change: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN (1), NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA, VA
4 Possible flip: FL, MN (1), OH, WI
6 Tossup: IN, MO, MT, ND, PA, WV
2 INDEPENDENT
Maine - might be tossup
Vermont - expected to remain Sanders.
So, Democrats could easily lose 11 Senators. Or they might flip 2, but certainly still lose the total count.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Seems to be 194 Democrat seats to 241 Republican seats. But currently 193 D seats and 238 R seats are held, with 4 vacant.
Looks like in the last midterms 2014 GOP gained 13 seats, and in 2016 Dems gained back 6 seats. 2010 midterms GOP gained 63 House seats.
What particular races do you find interesting?
In Wisconsin Speaker Ryan faces a repeated attempt to Primary him from some apparent Nazi guy. I'm not concerned with either the Primary or General Election for Ryan.
Wisconsin Junior Senator Tammy Baldwin is expected to lose her seat. She was Elected in 2012 (51%) because she had no competition running against a RINO in the General Election after the Primary wiped out 3 strong Conservatives and the RINO escaped (34% beating 31%, although 66% voted Conservative). Somewhat funny that she was running against Tommy Thompson because when she ran for either State Legislature or Congress she stole the Tommy campaign logo, making it Tammy. She has accomplished nothing, but gets plenty of play in Madison (Gay & Lesbian Capital of the World) due to being Lesbian. So Democraps would lose a seat.
So what other contests are on your radar? And how might they effect the balance in Congress?
Update from the 3 March post summary: gain of 3 for GOP, leaving 191 D to 244 R.
Update from the 16 March post: gain of 5 for GOP, leaving 186 D to 249 R.
Update after May Primaries: NC could lose 2 R, and WV-3 could lose an R. Leaving 189 D to 246 R.
75 days until Mid-terms.
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50 days until Mid-terms. I haven't been hearing much from Dems. Maybe I'm just lucky enough to miss their target demographic.
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Elections are 38 days away.
I don't seem to hear a lot about individual races. Just a bunch of generalized discussion about one side or the other.
I've been busy at work. I'm not sure if this is why things sound different to me now, or if this really is a different kind of election.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Elections are 38 days away.
I don't seem to hear a lot about individual races. Just a bunch of generalized discussion about one side or the other.
I've been busy at work. I'm not sure if this is why things sound different to me now, or if this really is a different kind of election.
I haven't heard much about them yet, other than theorized results of how the Kavanaugh situation is going to play out.
I mean, this is just the mid-terms. I think if you look back through the history of mid-terms this is pretty typical outside of the Kavanaugh thing. With the presidential races it seems we have to hear about it non-stop for an entire year leading up to them. With the mid-terms I think it's only usually 3 to 4 weeks. If anything, we're probably hearing more about the mid-terms than usual this time around.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:I recall 1994, 2002, 2010, and 2014 as more active.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Elections are 38 days away.
I don't seem to hear a lot about individual races. Just a bunch of generalized discussion about one side or the other.
I've been busy at work. I'm not sure if this is why things sound different to me now, or if this really is a different kind of election.
I haven't heard much about them yet, other than theorized results of how the Kavanaugh situation is going to play out.
I mean, this is just the mid-terms. I think if you look back through the history of mid-terms this is pretty typical outside of the Kavanaugh thing. With the presidential races it seems we have to hear about it non-stop for an entire year leading up to them. With the mid-terms I think it's only usually 3 to 4 weeks. If anything, we're probably hearing more about the mid-terms than usual this time around.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I recall 1994, 2002, 2010, and 2014 as more active.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Elections are 38 days away.
I don't seem to hear a lot about individual races. Just a bunch of generalized discussion about one side or the other.
I've been busy at work. I'm not sure if this is why things sound different to me now, or if this really is a different kind of election.
I haven't heard much about them yet, other than theorized results of how the Kavanaugh situation is going to play out.
I mean, this is just the mid-terms. I think if you look back through the history of mid-terms this is pretty typical outside of the Kavanaugh thing. With the presidential races it seems we have to hear about it non-stop for an entire year leading up to them. With the mid-terms I think it's only usually 3 to 4 weeks. If anything, we're probably hearing more about the mid-terms than usual this time around.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I won't argue it. I've never paid all that much attention to it before, and I haven't had cable TV for at least 10 years.
Maybe the Democrats did actually learn one lesson from their big loss 2 years ago and they're just going to STFU until the last minute instead of riling up the hidden Trump voters again.
Probably not a bad tactic, to be honest.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:This site is now claiming there will be no change in the total count of Senators per party. And a gain of 6 Governors for the Dems. Still predicts Dem will win WI Senator, by 14%.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:hahahahahahahaha. This was from 8 July.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I noticed that the Libtards over at Election Atlas are predicting a 3 Senator gain for Democrats. They usually don't face reality until much closer to the elections.
They even say a phantom Democrat will win a landslide against Gov Walker in WI. LOL.
Before the Primaries, a phantom unnamed Democrat was going to defeat Gov Walker by 17%.
Now that the Democraps have selected a loser and failure to be their gubernatorial candidate resulting from the Primary, Gov Scott Walker suddenly has a 2% lead, perplexing Libtards.
Libtard Tony Evers is such a failure that the only Office he's been able to hold is Supervisor for Dept of Public Instruction. He only has 2,000 of the fully funded Public Schools to try to keep up with underfunded Charter, Private, Voucher Schools. And he is able to get 120 of them to fail - which is 6% of complete failure. No word on how many are on the verge of failure. Plus he kept a teacher employed who spent his classtime watching porn and sexually harassing teen student girls. Yes, this teacher was in the 2nd District, which was Tammy Baldwin's seat.
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Something makes me wonder. Does reality have a bias?
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Something makes me wonder. Does reality have a bias?
Woah. That's pretty deep, man.
I was going to make a quick answer saying no, but that can't be right.
I mean, really, what is reality? Perception is reality. I don't think anything is concrete.
One of the movie quotes that has stuck with me over the years, and I don't even remember what movie or who said it went something like this, regarding lying:
"When you lie to somebody, you're changing your own reality".
That's why I don't think that anybody in here is actually a "bad" person for their opinions. Their reality just happens to be different than mine.
I could do without the constant insults though.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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"I don't think anything is concrete." Except concrete, when, for example, you hit it after a 24 story fall. At that point I don't think opinions about mass, acceleration, distance, and the human organism will matter.
THUGGER admits it's not about RUSSIA !!! and is, in fact, a witch hunt. "Trump better be innocent of any wrong doing, anywhere, anytime."
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
"I don't think anything is concrete." Except concrete, when, for example, you hit it after a 24 story fall. At that point I don't think opinions about mass, acceleration, distance, and the human organism will matter.
lol... That was pretty funny. Nothing is concrete except, well.... concrete.
True, but then things like this happen:
Quote:
Vesna Vulovic (Serbian Cyrillic: ????? ???????; pronounced ['?e?sna '?u?l??it??]; 3 January 1950 – 23 December 2016) was a Serbian flight attendant. She holds the Guinness world record for surviving the highest fall without a parachute: 10,160 metres (33,330 ft). Her fall took place after an explosion tore through the baggage compartment of JAT Flight 367 on 26 January 1972, causing it to crash near Srbská Kamenice, Czechoslovakia. She was the sole survivor of the crash that air safety investigators attributed to a briefcase bomb. The Yugoslav authorities suspected that Croatian nationalists were to blame, but no one was ever arrested.
I don't think that "laws" of physics are so much laws as they are rules that we haven't completely figured out how to bend or outright break yet.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:At 240 or so feet, it doesn't matter a lot what the substance is. Water or quicksand act similar to concrete at terminal velocity. Highly trained people entering water must be at perfect vertical or expect a broken neck.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
"I don't think anything is concrete." Except concrete, when, for example, you hit it after a 24 story fall. At that point I don't think opinions about mass, acceleration, distance, and the human organism will matter.
lol... That was pretty funny. Nothing is concrete except, well.... concrete.
True, but then things like this happen:Quote:
Vesna Vulovic (Serbian Cyrillic: ????? ???????; pronounced ['?e?sna '?u?l??it??]; 3 January 1950 – 23 December 2016) was a Serbian flight attendant. She holds the Guinness world record for surviving the highest fall without a parachute: 10,160 metres (33,330 ft). Her fall took place after an explosion tore through the baggage compartment of JAT Flight 367 on 26 January 1972, causing it to crash near Srbská Kamenice, Czechoslovakia. She was the sole survivor of the crash that air safety investigators attributed to a briefcase bomb. The Yugoslav authorities suspected that Croatian nationalists were to blame, but no one was ever arrested.
I don't think that "laws" of physics are so much laws as they are rules that we haven't completely figured out how to bend or outright break yet.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
That lucky woman must have intercepted tall soft trees to break the velocity of her descent. Fir can be quite good for that.
I am not convinced that any individual has their own reality. No matter how much Kylie Jenner twitters about it, Sol does not orbit Earth for her while at the same time being the center of Terra's orbit for the rest of us.
But perhaps the point might be that for those who deny reality, reality really is biased against them because of their viewpoint or denial.
But bystander's or passerby who observe the same bias from reality, do they detect that bias, or is their observation skewed by what the denier proclaims.
I am not yet sure of the answer here.
But I do cringe whenever hearing that Opinion trumps Fact, or all Opinions are Equally Valid, or the loudest Opinion is more valid than Truth or Fact.
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I have been getting an inkling that all of these Record-breaking highs of the Stock Market do not bode well for Liberals come Election Day.
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At a certain point one reaches 'terminal velocity', which doesn't have to do with life and death - it's simply your maximum speed in free fall. At that point the acceleration due to gravity is equal to the deceleration due to air resistance. I bet she was a bitty thing with a lot of surface area per weight. There's also what you land on - is it relatively soft, or hard? And how you land - do you come straight down like a pile driver? flat like a splat pancake? or skidding along at an angle slowing down as you go? And then there's her age and resilience. She didn't land unscathed, but at least she survived her injuries.
I can't begin to estimate the odds - one in a billion? trillion? - of surviving that. But it comes down to a very particular set of circumstances.
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Quote:You'd like to believe that. I would like to believe the following story will make a difference. Both are true stories; both will mean nothing to most voters and make no difference to how they vote, since most voters are not in the stock market and don't understand the details of real estate transfers to illegally evade taxes:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have been getting an inkling that all of these Record-breaking highs of the Stock Market do not bode well for Liberals come Election Day.
Mr. Trump won the presidency proclaiming himself a self-made billionaire, and he has long insisted that his father, the legendary New York City builder Fred C. Trump, provided almost no financial help.
But The Times’s investigation, based on a vast trove of confidential tax returns and financial records, reveals that Mr. Trump received the equivalent today of at least $413 million from his father’s real estate empire, starting when he was a toddler and continuing to this day.
Much of this money came to Mr. Trump because he helped his parents dodge taxes. He and his siblings set up a sham corporation to disguise millions of dollars in gifts from their parents, records and interviews show. Records indicate that Mr. Trump helped his father take improper tax deductions worth millions more. He also helped formulate a strategy to undervalue his parents’ real estate holdings by hundreds of millions of dollars on tax returns, sharply reducing the tax bill when those properties were transferred to him and his siblings.
These maneuvers met with little resistance from the Internal Revenue Service, The Times found. The president’s parents, Fred and Mary Trump, transferred well over $1 billion in wealth to their children, which could have produced a tax bill of at least $550 million under the 55 percent tax rate then imposed on gifts and inheritances.
The Trumps paid a total of $52.2 million, or about 5 percent, tax records show.
The president declined repeated requests over several weeks to comment for this article.
But a lawyer for Mr. Trump, Charles J. Harder, sought to distance Mr. Trump from the tax strategies used by his family, saying the president had delegated those tasks to relatives and tax professionals. “President Trump had virtually no involvement whatsoever with these matters,” he said. “The affairs were handled by other Trump family members who were not experts themselves and therefore relied entirely upon the aforementioned licensed professionals to ensure full compliance with the law.”
More at www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-sc
hemes-fred-trump.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Something makes me wonder. Does reality have a bias?
Mildly interesting question, bordering on dull.
Comprehensive answer: Reality doesn't give a sh*t.
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Quote:5% is much too high, unless he claimed income. If he claimed no income in a calendar year, he should have paid Zero Income Taxes. Depending on how his TV Contract is structured, it may have been decades since Trump last worked for wages. Until now, earning Government pay as President.
Originally posted by second:Quote:You'd like to believe that. I would like to believe the following story will make a difference. Both are true stories; both will mean nothing to most voters and make no difference to how they vote, since most voters are not in the stock market and don't understand the details of real estate transfers to illegally evade taxes:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have been getting an inkling that all of these Record-breaking highs of the Stock Market do not bode well for Liberals come Election Day.
Mr. Trump won the presidency proclaiming himself a self-made billionaire, and he has long insisted that his father, the legendary New York City builder Fred C. Trump, provided almost no financial help.
But The Times’s investigation, based on a vast trove of confidential tax returns and financial records, reveals that Mr. Trump received the equivalent today of at least $413 million from his father’s real estate empire, starting when he was a toddler and continuing to this day.
Much of this money came to Mr. Trump because he helped his parents dodge taxes. He and his siblings set up a sham corporation to disguise millions of dollars in gifts from their parents, records and interviews show. Records indicate that Mr. Trump helped his father take improper tax deductions worth millions more. He also helped formulate a strategy to undervalue his parents’ real estate holdings by hundreds of millions of dollars on tax returns, sharply reducing the tax bill when those properties were transferred to him and his siblings.
These maneuvers met with little resistance from the Internal Revenue Service, The Times found. The president’s parents, Fred and Mary Trump, transferred well over $1 billion in wealth to their children, which could have produced a tax bill of at least $550 million under the 55 percent tax rate then imposed on gifts and inheritances.
The Trumps paid a total of $52.2 million, or about 5 percent, tax records show.
The president declined repeated requests over several weeks to comment for this article.
But a lawyer for Mr. Trump, Charles J. Harder, sought to distance Mr. Trump from the tax strategies used by his family, saying the president had delegated those tasks to relatives and tax professionals. “President Trump had virtually no involvement whatsoever with these matters,” he said. “The affairs were handled by other Trump family members who were not experts themselves and therefore relied entirely upon the aforementioned licensed professionals to ensure full compliance with the law.”
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As always, the last person we can trust to tell the truth here is Blumpy.
He's guilty of multiple crimes, including child rape. Complete sociopath.
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JSF
I'm wary of polls. Though perhaps they might be useful when you track individual polls and see if they're going up or down (since their process and bias remain the same poll to poll). Anyway, Salon (rabidly neo-liberal) had an article late last week that the blue-wave is being throttled to a blue, gentle lapping, of water on the shore. It attributed that to the Kavanaugh hearings which are motivating Trump supporters.
Checking 538 out, that appears to be true. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
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Quote:I am sorry. Isolated viewings of my posts regarding polls likely do not reveal my sarcasm, or guarded eye on their accuracy.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
JSF
I'm wary of polls. Though perhaps they might be useful when you track individual polls and see if they're going up or down (since their process and bias remain the same poll to poll). Anyway, Salon (rabidly neo-liberal) had an article late last week that the blue-wave is being throttled to a blue, gentle lapping, of water on the shore. It attributed that to the Kavanaugh hearings which are motivating Trump supporters.
Checking 538 out, that appears to be true. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
MSM polls always trend about 15% Liberal prior to the Election, trying to convince normal people that they are in the minority. They only use the final poll they have, which swings wildly to the Conservative side, as the measure of their stated "accuracy" figures of their historical polls.
So I am belittling the polls which show wildly Blue Waves. Posting their nonsense here for a measure of perspective in posterity.
Whenever the polls suddenly are edited to be more accurate to reality (during every single Election cycle), they always have a new excuse for this "big swing" of polling results, which is not any change at all in the actual poll answers, only in the reported results. That the MSM is giving up their Fiction of Blue Wave this early, using the excuse of Kavanaugh, is what is most telling.
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Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
As always, the last person we can trust to tell the truth here is Blumpy.
He's guilty of multiple crimes, including child rape. Complete sociopath.
Comments like these coming from the extreme left are going to be viewed historically as the reason why the Democrats are doing so poorly right now.
"I don't like him, so he is ____________"
Seems that blank has elevated from racist troll to sociopathic child rapist now.
It's not important at all what somebody like me thinks about these statements since I was immediately lumped in with the original claims of being a racist and sexist when I said I voted for Trump.
Where it is going to matter is when independents and the center left turn their backs on the Democratic party as well.
My prediction is that we start seeing that in the elections next month, and I'm not surprised to see that polling data is already starting to reflect that this far out.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
As always, the last person we can trust to tell the truth here is Blumpy.
He's guilty of multiple crimes, including child rape. Complete sociopath.
Comments like these coming from the extreme left are going to be viewed historically as the reason why the Democrats are doing so poorly right now.
I agree, and the sad thing is they can't help themselves. The far left is as much a problem as the far right. Both spread nothing but hate.
T
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
As always, the last person we can trust to tell the truth here is Blumpy.
He's guilty of multiple crimes, including child rape. Complete sociopath.
Comments like these coming from the extreme left are going to be viewed historically as the reason why the Democrats are doing so poorly right now.
I agree, and the sad thing is they can't help themselves. The far left is as much a problem as the far right. Both spread nothing but hate.
T
I think what we need to do is stop believing that these extreme voices are the norm for the other "side". And then we need to start being very loud about the fact that we do not condone those thoughts or behaviors, no matter what side they're coming from. "By Any Means Necessary" is a terrible way to go about things, and if we don't stop it from happening before it's completely out of control I'm afraid that it WILL usher in an Orwellian dystopia for all of us.
The very fact that you just shocked me here with your agreement of my statement gives me hope that things are starting to take a turn back towards sanity.
Hey... maybe you really do believe that I'm a racist and a sexist and an idiot. But at least you can draw the line and wouldn't call me a sociopathic child rapist just because you don't agree with me.
Thanks for that. ;)
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by THG:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
As always, the last person we can trust to tell the truth here is Blumpy.
He's guilty of multiple crimes, including child rape. Complete sociopath.
Comments like these coming from the extreme left are going to be viewed historically as the reason why the Democrats are doing so poorly right now.
I agree, and the sad thing is they can't help themselves. The far left is as much a problem as the far right. Both spread nothing but hate.
T
I think what we need to do is stop believing that these extreme voices are the norm for the other "side". And then we need to start being very loud about the fact that we do not condone those thoughts or behaviors, no matter what side they're coming from. "By Any Means Necessary" is a terrible way to go about things, and if we don't stop it from happening before it's completely out of control I'm afraid that it WILL usher in an Orwellian dystopia for all of us.
The very fact that you just shocked me here with your agreement of my statement gives me hope that things are starting to take a turn back towards sanity.
Hey... maybe you really do believe that I'm a racist and a sexist and an idiot. But at least you can draw the line and wouldn't call me a sociopathic child rapist just because you don't agree with me.
Thanks for that. ;)
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Did T's logon get hijacked?
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Quote:That's not my experience at all.
Originally posted by THG:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
As always, the last person we can trust to tell the truth here is Blumpy.
He's guilty of multiple crimes, including child rape. Complete sociopath.
Comments like these coming from the extreme left are going to be viewed historically as the reason why the Democrats are doing so poorly right now.
I agree, and the sad thing is they can't help themselves. The far left is as much a problem as the far right. Both spread nothing but hate.
T
Reichwing = hate. Leftwing = logic and reason, supported by solid facts.
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Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
That's not my experience at all.
Reichwing = hate. Leftwing = logic and reason, supported by solid facts.
Keep it up buddy. That tide the authoritarian Left has been riding is rapidly reaching its ebbing point.
Know that extreme narrow mindedness and broad brush comments like these are what is going to be the end of your little revolutionary LARP fest.
See you at the polls. Don't forget your mask in your mom's basement.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Forgot to point out, Sunday was 30 days til Election.
Are some still clinging to the Blue Wave fantasy?
I think that will not happen, as I have always disputed it would.
And WI can correct it's greatest mistake, which was Sen Baldwin.
I see Heidi Heidkamp is working feverishly to lose her office.
A supermajority in the Senate would be nice, and seems quite possible.
The Seats which could flip in the Senate:
Baldwin - WI
Heidkamp - ND
Manchin - WV
Nelson - FL
Klobuchar - MN
Smith - MN
Brown - OH
King - ME
Donnelly - IN
McCaskill - MO
Tester - MT
These 11 Seats could turn the 51 Seat majority to a 62 Seat majority.
Does anybody have confidence that any specific one of these will win?
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I've already said that I'm changing my vote for Donnelley after his party-line Kavanaugh vote.
Months ago when I said I was voting for him it didn't appear that he was even going to be contested. RCP's got him as a toss up now.
Polls don't mean anything in this race, so anything could happen anywhere. This is what happens when you pull something so outrageous that has never been done before an election. You have no idea how people are going to react.
Don't forget the October Surprise. Who can say which side has an ace up their sleeve that they're waiting to spring last minute to sway the results.
I hope you all enjoy being manipulated as much as I do.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Tossup with 4 weeks to go, from Left-wing Extremist RCP?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I've already said that I'm changing my vote for Donnelley after his party-line Kavanaugh vote.
Months ago when I said I was voting for him it didn't appear that he was even going to be contested. RCP's got him as a toss up now.
Polls don't mean anything in this race, so anything could happen anywhere. This is what happens when you pull something so outrageous that has never been done before an election. You have no idea how people are going to react.
Don't forget the October Surprise. Who can say which side has an ace up their sleeve that they're waiting to spring last minute to sway the results.
I hope you all enjoy being manipulated as much as I do.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Sounds like he has no hope of winning.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Tossup with 4 weeks to go, from Left-wing Extremist RCP?
Sounds like he has no hope of winning.
538 has him at a 3/4 chance of winning. RCP has Donnelly up 5% but is at least wisely calling it a toss up at this point. Both of these organizations were obviously way off the mark in 2016.
Only time will tell.
I expect to see a lot more drama surrounding all of this before election day, but all of these rich fucks that are manipulating everything get to take the weekends off.
The weekend is over.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Does anybody think this:
A year from now, or even further down the road, next month's Election will be commonly known as the Kavanaugh Mid-Terms? Or the Kavanaugh Referendum? Or similar?
Seems fair clear there will be no Blue Wave, and no bucking any pretense of a trend of Midterms "losing ground" for the Party residing at 1600 Penn, so will the incipient GoP win be credited to Kavanaugh, or, more pointedly, the Democrap shenanigans oposing Kavanaugh?
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Who can say. One thing is for sure though... It will never be recognized as anything Trump did.
RCP aggregate has Donnelly up by only 2.5 points now. Not looking too good for him.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I am still thinking SuperMajority, here we come. Thanks Fienstein, Shumer, Floozy-Ford.
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I think that just like 2016, anyone who's pro-Trump /pro-republican is going to keep mum about their opinions, and be under-counted.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
I think that just like 2016, anyone who's pro-Trump /pro-republican is going to keep mum about their opinions, and be under-counted.
Especially in the urban areas. Have you seen any recent videos of what's going on in Portland?
If you thought the extreme left was crazy back in 2016, they're absolutely rabid in 2018. My prediction is the polls are about 10 points off in almost every case.
We'll see what happens.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Yesterday marked 4 weeks to go.
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Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
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Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
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Anybody hear about Florida Governor race? Dems and Soros, Bloomberg are supporting Bernie candidate Gillam.
This guy is on 2 Prime topics, putting 100% of people on Medicare, and Impeach Trump.
Running for Governor.
Medicare currently has 15% participation, with 100% of people contributing, and is scheduled to become insolvent in 2026 - 8 years from now.
No need to calculate the Financial Illiteracy required to think shifting to 100% Recipient participation will solve all of the Medicare problems.
Just conjure how the Federal Program of Medicare is a viable campaign issue for Governor.
Same for Impeach Trump.
How stupid do Socialists think Democrat Voters are?
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Quote:Polls are tricky things. The respondents have to be selected randomly and without any oversampling, the questions have to be neutral and specific, and people have to answer honestly. In 2016 democrats were oversampled, and people didn't want to come out and say they were voting for Trump. It's hard to say how much of that might be going on now, in 2018.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lost the House. I've posted the link twice already, but it's historically the norm for the party of the president to lose substantial numbers from Congress in off-year elections.
Just to re-litigate the 2016 election a bit, to see if any of those factors still hold - While Obama personally got high marks for his demeanor, people were bitterly disappointed that he failed to prosecute - or even investigate - the institutions that caused the 2007 global financial meltdown.
I believe that was the cause of this 2010 off-year election result:
Quote:And I believe that same dynamic carried over into the 2016 presidential election, where Hillary carried the same unpopular (and not populist) message, and the same identity politics, but without the PERSONAL approval that carried Obama along.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2010
The Democratic Party suffered massive defeats in many national and state level elections, with many seats switching to Republican Party control. Although the President's party usually loses congressional, statewide and local seats in midterm elections, the 2010 midterm election season featured some of the biggest losses since the Great Depression. The Republican Party gained 63 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, recapturing the majority, and making it the largest seat change since 1948 and the largest for any midterm election since the 1938 midterm elections. The Republicans gained six seats in the U.S. Senate, expanding its minority, and also gained 680 seats in state legislative races,[4][5][6] to break the previous majority record of 628 set by Democrats in the post-Watergate elections of 1974.[6] This left Republicans in control of 26 state legislatures, compared to the 15 still controlled by Democrats. After the election, Republicans took control of 29 of the 50 State Governorships.
What may be driving this election isn't Trump's policies, but his demeanor, along with the normal historical dynamic. OTOH, I believe that may be mitigated somewhat in the polls by people being mum about supporting Trump's efforts.
Time will tell.
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Look at the wishful thinking on 270 to win...
https://www.270towin.com/maps/nmzJ2
Already predicting the Dems barely squeeze out a win for President with only 752 days left and no Democratic candidate.
lol
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Looking at all the polls for the House of Representatives elections:
10% chance Democrats gain more than 56 seats
80% chance Democrats gain 17 to 56 seats.
10% chance Democrats gain fewer than 17 seats.
But the chance Republicans keep control is 20.9%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/
Chance Republicans keep control of the Senate is 81.3%.
10% chance Republicans gain more than 4 seats.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/se
nate/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:So the GoP has 79% chance of NOT retaining House Majority. Good to hear such an unbiased analysis.
Originally posted by second:
Looking at all the polls for the House of Representatives elections:
10% chance Democrats gain more than 56 seats
80% chance Democrats gain 17 to 56 seats.
10% chance Democrats gain fewer than 17 seats.
But the chance Republicans keep control is 20.9%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/
Chance Republicans keep control of the Senate is 81.3%.
10% chance Republicans gain more than 4 seats.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/se
nate/
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Quote:Polls are tricky things. The respondents have to be selected randomly and without any oversampling, the questions have to be neutral and specific, and people have to answer honestly. In 2016 democrats were oversampled, and people didn't want to come out and say they were voting for Trump. It's hard to say how much of that might be going on now, in 2018.
Originally posted by 1kiki:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lost the House. I've posted the link twice already, but it's historically the norm for the party of the president to lose substantial numbers from Congress in off-year elections.
I have seen your link.
Shall I infer you have not seen my responses or discussion of them?
These pseudo-quasi-arguments in your links are quite ancient. Each election cycle, Liberals drag them out of the closet, wipe the dust off, and claim they are fresh arguments, while ignoring the past 30 years of historical evidence that these pretense of arguments are flat.
Have you not read my posts, or are you just hoping everybody will ignore them?
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Polls are tricky things. The respondents have to be selected randomly and without any oversampling, the questions have to be neutral and specific, and people have to answer honestly. In 2016 democrats were oversampled, and people didn't want to come out and say they were voting for Trump. It's hard to say how much of that might be going on now, in 2018.
But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lost the House. I've posted the link twice already, but it's historically the norm for the party of the president to lose substantial numbers from Congress in off-year elections.
Quote:??? I thought I was responding. I have no way to evaluate your claims or the polls. I think there are multiple ways the polls could be going wrong, both positively and negatively. But, "time will tell".
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have seen your link.
Shall I infer you have not seen my responses or discussion of them?
Quote:The arguments were mine, not found in any links. I thought that was clearly indicated.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
These pseudo-quasi-arguments in your links are quite ancient.
Quote:I honestly have no clue what you're referring to. You've made many claims republicans are headed to a House supermajority. But you've provided no data, backed up by no links, to support that. As far as I can tell, they're simply your claims, and there doesn't seem to be a basis for discussion.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Each election cycle, Liberals drag them out of the closet, wipe the dust off, and claim they are fresh arguments, while ignoring the past 30 years of historical evidence that these pretense of arguments are flat.
Have you not read my posts, or are you just hoping everybody will ignore them?
The links I've provided twice in the past were wiki links that showed a nearly invariant pattern that the party of the presidency lost seats in Congress in off year elections over more than 100 years. Other links (links to search results from the house.gov site, that failed to work, also posted twice) showed that sometimes these reversals were dramatic, far exceeding what would be required to flip the current House majority. That indicates a House flip is within proven range.
As for polls, I'm agnostic. I provide them as a resource only. But I have no way to evaluate them other that by noting how they've gone wrong in the past, and that they may still be going wrong now.
You've posted elsewhere that you're really busy. But if this post doesn't address your positions, perhaps you could go back and indicate which polls, which arguments, which statements you take issue with (with quotes) so I can reply specifically.
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Quote:As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
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Quote:As of today, changes are:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196
Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.
3 weeks to go.
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I am disappointed that I have not been able to find time to track this better.
I might just need to give up.
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RCP now showing 205D to 199R
The gap is closing considerably.
I wonder what the October surprise will be.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:RCP used to be what? On what date?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R
The gap is closing considerably.
I wonder what the October surprise will be.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Today Optimus has changed. D 202 R 210.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, changes are:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196
Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.
3 weeks to go.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:RCP used to be what? On what date?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R
The gap is closing considerably.
I wonder what the October surprise will be.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Interesting.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:RCP used to be what? On what date?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R
The gap is closing considerably.
I wonder what the October surprise will be.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:I notice 538 also has 190 solid blue on their spectrum.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today Optimus has changed. D 202 R 210.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, changes are:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196
Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.
3 weeks to go.
Dems only won 194 last time, while riding Hilliary's coattails. Currently have 193.
Something called Crosstab has 197 Dark Blue. Wonder if anybody takes that one seriously.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Interesting.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:RCP used to be what? On what date?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R
The gap is closing considerably.
I wonder what the October surprise will be.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
206 to 189 on September 18th through October 3rd with no change in between.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Not really. The Kavanaugh joke backfired spectacularly on them. Go figure.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Today Cook changed a smidge D208 R197
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today Optimus has changed. D 202 R 210.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, changes are:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, that same site showed the same figures for all except Cook, which moved to D208 R196.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196
Golly, wonder why Optimus hasn't changed.
3 weeks to go.
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Quote:Melania's a money-grubbing whore.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I am still thinking SuperMajority, here we come. Thanks Fienstein, Shumer, Floozy-Ford.
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Quote:Please provide evidence that Soros is supporting anyone. Thanks in advance.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Anybody hear about Florida Governor race? Dems and Soros, Bloomberg are supporting Bernie candidate Gillam.
This guy is on 2 Prime topics, putting 100% of people on Medicare, and Impeach Trump.
Running for Governor.
Medicare currently has 15% participation, with 100% of people contributing, and is scheduled to become insolvent in 2026 - 8 years from now.
No need to calculate the Financial Illiteracy required to think shifting to 100% Recipient participation will solve all of the Medicare problems.
Just conjure how the Federal Program of Medicare is a viable campaign issue for Governor.
Same for Impeach Trump.
How stupid do Socialists think Democrat Voters are?
538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/
But, the Repubs have a fortune in dark money, thanks to the tax giveaways to their rich owners. And of course, nothing has been done about Russian meddling.
Not even in here.
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Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/
Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?
Quote:
Not even in here.
Yeah. It's a shame that Haken doesn't share your love for censorship, huh?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Do you find the timing suspicious, for 4,000 Hondurans caravanning to the U.S. Border? Are they getting bussed across Mejico to make sure they arrive on the correct date?
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
RCP now showing 205D to 199R
The gap is closing considerably.
I wonder what the October surprise will be.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Curious to wonder who thinks this will benefit Dems, and not Trump. Gotta go find that Trump Wins Again GIF, already.
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Quote:Today 538 changed to D210 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, changes are:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196
3 weeks to go.
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201 D44 R50
CNN D206 R201 D45 R49
Optimus D202 R210
Politico D209 R200 D45 R50
538 D210 R199 D48 R50 (tossups MO, NV)
Cook D208 R197 D44 R47
I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Wishful thinking.
And I will also add the Senate Predictions above.
Those show Tammy Baldwin with a 10 point lead, 52-42.
Most of the above pundits have moved WI Gov from Dem win to tossup now.
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Quote:Cook changed again D208 R196 D44 R48
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D210 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, changes are:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196
3 weeks to go.
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201 D44 R50
CNN D206 R201 D45 R49
Optimus D202 R210
Politico D209 R200 D45 R50
538 D210 R199 D48 R50 (tossups MO, NV)
Cook D208 R197 D44 R47
I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Wishful thinking.
And I will also add the Senate Predictions above.
Those show Tammy Baldwin with a 10 point lead, 52-42.
Most of the above pundits have moved WI Gov from Dem win to tossup now.
And 538 D216 R199
18 days to go.
Tonight WI has a Senator debate, followed by a Governor debate.
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Thanks for posting.
I have no dog in this fight. California is a big blue state and I don't see that changing any time soon. I'm mostly curious how this turns out from a predictive standpoint (who gets it right?), and also from a national political standpoint. Do the democrats win back any power positions?
But mostly I've been very busy. I've been training my replacement and re-writing the SOPs before I move into another group.
So I appreciate you all for following and posting, and making up for my inability to invest a whole lot in this cycle.
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Quote:There is a guy who worked closely with Trump for years and was high up in the GOP apparatus. He has some insight for you, 1kiki:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
So I appreciate you all for following and posting, and making up for my inability to invest a whole lot in this cycle.
Michael Cohen has fully given up on his former boss Donald Trump. On Friday, Cohen told a reporter that people should get out to vote to avoid "another two or another six years of this craziness." He didn't specify "vote against Trump and the GOP," but his meaning seemed fairly clear in the video at
https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/1053344486376394752
From 2017 to 2018, Cohen was deputy finance chairman of the Republican National Committee. On 11 October 2018, Cohen re-registered himself as Democratic in an effort to distance “himself from the values of the current” administration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Cohen_(lawyer)
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Reregistered as a "Democratic", huh?
Not really sure what that means for him in the long run. Donald Trump was a Democratic all of his life until he ran for President.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:The poll for 2016 is still there at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/
Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?
On November 6, 2016, 538 gave Trump a 35% chance of winning. The chance of "winning" a game of Russian roulette is 16.7% with one pull of the trigger. With two pulls the chance of a bullet in your brain increases to 33.4%, about the same as Trump's chances of winning in 2016. Russian roulette is not a game I would play even once, let alone twice. The probabilities are against you.
Why FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a better chance of winning than almost anyone else:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-
better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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lol
Russia!!!!!!
I'm relatively happy with the way things are going right now.
What you need to realize is that half the country was looking at the 2016 elections as playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets.
Not everyone shares your opinions, Second. I know how much that truth pains you.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:I will feel no pain, 6ix. The GOP has a noteworthy chance of increasing its control in the Senate, and to a lesser extent, the House. If the GOP does well in this election, which I hope they don't, they will be giving the wealthy another tax cut. That will be my multi-million dollar consolation prize when the Democrats lose. Too bad you won't get a prize, 6ix, but ha-ha for me!
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol
Russia!!!!!!
I'm relatively happy with the way things are going right now.
What you need to realize is that half the country was looking at the 2016 elections as playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets.
Not everyone shares your opinions, Second. I know how much that truth pains you.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:The key part was re-registered, not registered. Cohen has been Democrat for his whole life, only registering as Republican for the past year or so (not 2 years), plus something like a year one other time.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Reregistered as a "Democratic", huh?
Not really sure what that means for him in the long run. Donald Trump was a Democratic all of his life until he ran for President.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I don't think second wanted you, or anybody else, to be paying attention to any facts. Facts and truth are not favorable to his delusions.
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:I will feel no pain, 6ix. The GOP has a noteworthy chance of increasing its control in the Senate, and to a lesser extent, the House. If the GOP does well in this election, which I hope they don't, they will be giving the wealthy another tax cut. That will be my multi-million dollar consolation prize when the Democrats lose. Too bad you won't get a prize, 6ix, but ha-ha for me!
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol
Russia!!!!!!
I'm relatively happy with the way things are going right now.
What you need to realize is that half the country was looking at the 2016 elections as playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets.
Not everyone shares your opinions, Second. I know how much that truth pains you.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Enjoy it.
Maybe you'll stop bitching for a while and you can go brag to somebody who cares.
I don't care about money beyond being able to pay the bills. I'll be enjoying all of my free time while you're obsessing over stupid shit. :)
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Did you notice, according to that link, they had Trump at 28% on Election Day?
Originally posted by second:Quote:The poll for 2016 is still there at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted:
538 says the Dems have a 5/6 chance of getting a majority in the house. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/ho
use/
Yup. How did 538's polls work out for you 2 years ago?
On November 6, 2016, 538 gave Trump a 35% chance of winning.
Why FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a better chance of winning than almost anyone else:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-
better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
Based upon your insipid delusional comments, I immediately assumed that the linky you provided would be no more than the standard useless blather that the Left has relied upon for decades.
That goes like this: in the final days before an Election, the Pollsters are forced to return to reality, after months of Spinning their lies. This is because their self-selected measure of Pollster accuracy is comparing actual Election results to the FINAL POLL taken, the Last Poll they took before the Election. This is their self-chosen gauge to provide credibility for all of their future Polls (their future work, income, money, influence, relevance.). So since they only measure that Last, Final Poll, then that is the ONLY POLL that they make any attempt to reflect reality.
This is the same for every Election.
However, you have accidentally provided a linky which actually swerved into reality, and is actually relevant - either you forgot that reality was included in this particular linky, or you were incapable of recognizing reality when you encountered it.
In that linky, the first actual graph I see, shows the "polling" results for the months leading up to the Election, although the specifics are completely ignored in written narrative filling that web page.
If you look at that graph, you may discover the Universal Truth about Election Polling. Look at October 2016. (We are right now in October 2018). See how the Pollsters feverishly toiled so diligently to sway the opinions of voters? They gave Trump about 13%, only 2-3 weeks before he won a majority of Electoral Votes.
For those who voted for Trump, this weak Tea likely had little effect on their strong minds. But for the weak-minded this tactic is essential - for Democrats, Socialists, Communists and other Liberals rely heavily upon the vote of the most weak-minded - and so they absolutely must sway those weak minds to vote for them. The weak-minded possess a need to fit in, be like everybody else, be a part of the majority, so Liberal Pollsters cultivate the illusion that the majority of Americans are Liberals. Compared to the Reality which is revealed on Election Day. (Funny thing is, after decades of this, Liberals in News now actually believe their own Press Releases, and are clearly befuddled and bewildered when reporting Election Day Results.)
This is one reason Democrats push so heavily for voters to Vote Early, Vote Often, use Absentee Ballots, so the Votes can be cast before the Polls drift toward reality, and before the Evilness of the Democrats is revealed, in the final days before Election.
For decades now, the "Poll shift" has always been about 15% toward the Left at this point in the cycle. I just realized now that this graph actually confirms this historical trend - looks about 14-15% comparing 13-14% in October 2016 to their 28% on Election Day.
So if you view the polls today through the lens of historical trends, and consider the Election Day polls will miraculously shift about 15% to the right - as they always do - then how do you interpret today's polls?
Of course, Elections where Votes can only be cast by Mail, in advance, are obviously excluded from Reality. They are Lost to the most delusional and weak-minded of
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Quote:I am not bragging: anything I've done you could do it better, faster, and easier. But I've seen that wrong ideas people have are a drag upon their lives. They don't want to let go of the bad idea. They would rather drive over a cliff and die then make a left hand turn (which would be the same as admitting they had been wrong) to avoid a personal catastrophe. All the people I have known that went over the cliff, crashed and burned, I couldn't stop any of them from what they did to themselves. It is like the smoker who only developed the willpower to stop smoking after he had lung cancer. It's too late, he could have quit anytime, but he waited until he had lost a lung to change his mind about who gets cancer. Need I mention that tobacco companies made a fortune off of him? More explicitly, the GOP is also making a fortune off the people who buy their brand name product and smoke it.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Enjoy it.
Maybe you'll stop bitching for a while and you can go brag to somebody who cares.
I don't care about money beyond being able to pay the bills. I'll be enjoying all of my free time while you're obsessing over stupid shit. :)
Do Right, Be Right. :)
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:I have been observing the predictive trends for decades now, but then I am REALLY good with Math.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Thanks for posting.
I have no dog in this fight. California is a big blue state and I don't see that changing any time soon. I'm mostly curious how this turns out from a predictive standpoint (who gets it right?), and also from a national political standpoint. Do the democrats win back any power positions?
But mostly I've been very busy. I've been training my replacement and re-writing the SOPs before I move into another group.
So I appreciate you all for following and posting, and making up for my inability to invest a whole lot in this cycle.
When you have time to review this thread, check the post I made just above, about an hour ago.
Also, that predictive standpoint is the reason I am posting almost daily changes in the polls. Obviously, I cannot state what those polls will show in 2 weeks at this point, but posting them consistently will help paint the picture, or record it for later reference.
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Quote:Here is an interesting part of that site.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Cook changed again D208 R196 D44 R48
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D210 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:As of today, changes are:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/ note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Daily Kos D206 R201
538 D214 R202
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D214 R202
Cook D208 R196
3 weeks to go.
So that is
Daily Kos D206 R201 D44 R50
CNN D206 R201 D45 R49
Optimus D202 R210
Politico D209 R200 D45 R50
538 D210 R199 D48 R50 (tossups MO, NV)
Cook D208 R197 D44 R47
I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup. Wishful thinking.
And I will also add the Senate Predictions above.
And 538 D216 R199
This is the table version of the Optimus House Predictions, which is the most right-leaning of the polls shown at this point. Currently D202 R210
https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/index_show_table.php?map_
title=0ptimus-house-forecast
Now, I can point out that, with the exception of the Rock-The-Vote mistake of 2006, the past few decades of Mid-Terms result in GoP gains, restoring a modicum of reason to Congress.
So their prediction specifies that:
Likely Dems include Current 6D, plus 3R that will flip.
Leaning Dems include current 6D, plus 6R that will flip.
Tossups include current 2D, plus 21R that are going to flip.
Leaning GoP include current 1D that is going to flip, plus 28R.
Likely GoP include current 1D that is going to flip, plus 40R.
This means, of 438 Seats, only 2 Dems will flip to GoP in a Mid-Term Election. That seems hilarious.
For me, at least, this seems clear that the massive number of flips from GoP to Dem in a Mid-term is the opposite of historical trend. Seems Liberals cannot learn from History.
Let's see how this list of projected counter-trend of flips will emerge on Election Day. Ha ha.
Current GoP Likely to flip to Dem:
NJ-2 Open
PA-6
PA-13
Current GoP Leaning to flip to Dem;
AZ-2 OPEN
CA-49 OPEN
CO-6
MN-3
NJ-11 OPEN
VA-10
Current GoP considered Tossup to flip to Dem:
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39 OPEN
CA-45
CA-48
FL-26
FL-27 OPEN
IA-1
IL-6
KS-2 OPEN
KS-3
KY-6
MI-11 OPEN
MN-2
NC-9 OPEN
NJ-3
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
TX-7
TX-32
Current Dems Leaning toward flip to GoP:
MN-1 OPEN
Current Dems Likely to flip to GoP:
PA-14 Lamb
Anybody think that bias in the slate will hold up for 3 weeks?
For observers of Real World Elections, this delusion is incredulous.
16 States. AZ, CA, CO, KS, MI, MN, NJ, NC, KY, PA, FL, NY, TX, IA, IL, VA.
States not in that list:
AK, AL, AR, DE, LA, WI, IN, TN, SC, MS, GA, MD, NE, MT, ID, UT, OR, WA, WV, VT, NH, ME, RI, OH, HI, MA, CT, WY, NM, MO, ND, SD, NV, OK.
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Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D210 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup.
D206 R201 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D202 R210 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups MO, NV)
D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook
17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
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Quote:538 has changed D217 R199 D49 R50 (Tossup is NV). So, even more strongly saying Dems take control of the House. Plus, either a Tie or status quo in Senate.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Today 538 changed to D210 R199.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197
Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
I also looked at that site's Senate map. They have D44 R49, with 7 tossup.
D206 R201 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R201 D45 R49 CNN
D202 R210 Optimus
D209 R200 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 D48 R50 538 (tossups MO, NV)
D208 R196 D44 R48 Cook
17 days to go. Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control. So 538 is essentially saying Dems win control of the House.
Daily Kos changed to D206 R200.
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I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND
America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876
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Quote:You are correct. We will find out that it has turned out the same as it has turned out each time before. But Liberals fervently hope that everybody will forget that History repeats itself, so they can pull the curtain back again, and start the new show for 2020, which starts about 3 months from now.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out.
And, if we already know (from proven past practice) that they are lying, then why is anybody listening to their lies?
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Rasmussen Polls indicate a strong Dem showing at the Voting booth could garner a 50-50 Senate, while a strong GoP showing would result in D44 R56.
Plus, Walker likely to win Gov in WI, while Libs call this opposite.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:You are correct. We will find out that it has turned out the same as it has turned out each time before. But Liberals fervently hope that everybody will forget that History repeats itself, so they can pull the curtain back again, and start the new show for 2020, which starts about 3 months from now.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out.
And, if we already know (from proven past practice) that they are lying, then why is anybody listening to their lies?
I don't think, at least in general, that they're lying. Even to themselves.
They just have no idea how to truly make polls at this point, in this political climate.
I think during the next 6 years that polls are going to start being a lot more accurate. As more people say "fuck it" and stop worrying about idiots like Reaverfan and T calling them a Nazi and they just speak their minds, they're not going to continue to be secretive about who they support and why.
My guess is that similar to 2016, the polling data for 2018 is far under-representative of the support on the right because people still aren't admitting that they're voting against Democrats.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Not lying. Methinks you're fooling yourself. If they hadn't proven for the past several decades that they trod out the same lies each cycle, you might have a viable concept. I might have considered this a possibility in 1980s or early 90s.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:You are correct. We will find out that it has turned out the same as it has turned out each time before. But Liberals fervently hope that everybody will forget that History repeats itself, so they can pull the curtain back again, and start the new show for 2020, which starts about 3 months from now.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think this is one of those things that we'll only know how it turns out after it turns out.
And, if we already know (from proven past practice) that they are lying, then why is anybody listening to their lies?
I don't think, at least in general, that they're lying. Even to themselves.
They just have no idea how to truly make polls at this point, in this political climate.
I think during the next 6 years that polls are going to start being a lot more accurate. As more people say "fuck it" and stop worrying about idiots like Reaverfan and T calling them a Nazi and they just speak their minds, they're not going to continue to be secretive about who they support and why.
My guess is that similar to 2016, the polling data for 2018 is far under-representative of the support on the right because people still aren't admitting that they're voting against Democrats.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
They don't know how to make polls. Then how/why do they continue to target, skew, slant, bias, imbalance the questions to ensure they get the results they are programmed to get? Your proposition requires they are insipid, and incompetent, not intentionally disingenuous.
Accuracy. Prior to 2016 they were quite accurate in responses, just disingenuous with their "reporting" of "results" from their polls. You just had to know what the standard built-in slant was in order to understand them. It is possible the normal segment of response refusal has expanded in the past few years, but they still know what those mean - the Pollsters just are not reporting them. And MSM actually believes their own Press Releases now, which wasn't the case back when actual News Organizations existed, instead of a harem of Weather Girls spouting the Entertainment Division TelePrompTer pablum.
With HD technology, you can virtually see the vacuum behind the eyes of the likes of Savannah, Maddow, Hoda, etc. Seeing their vacuous expressions on Election Night was quite entertaining.
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I actually read polling data.
I've even pointed out in specific instances where the polls were obviously rigged because the demographic makeup was significantly not representative of the electorate in question.
I don't think that this is the norm though. It would be far too easy for people who actually look into things to debunk the whole lot of them if they were.
Look at what's happening on the streets. Particularly in Portland. You're a pretty brave man if you'd drive around those streets with a Trump for President bumper sticker on your car. No. It's better just to keep your mouth shut until election day.
Hell.... Even Buzzfeed recently came out and said that Antifa is not Anti-Fascist.
The tides they are a turnin'. Just like I predicted.
It's too early to say exactly when, but if we don't see the polls showing more accuracy overall by 2020, I expect it to be no later than 2022.
You don't even have to look at it from my point of view to see that this is likely to happen. Look at it from a business perspective. How many times can Nate Silver fail horribly before the Democrats stop viewing him as a virtual "safe space" for their desires and turn on him and start calling him a liar?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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