TRUMP - Just because.....................Naw, I just can't say it!
POSTED BY: SHINYGOODGUY
UPDATED: Monday, March 9, 2026 20:06
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Quote:Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. His chart of Trump:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
3 weeks before that, Hillary was up in far more than barely double digits. That's when Nate Silver gave Trump less than a 3% chance of winning the election.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
Trump vs Rogue One, movie reviewed at Variety
http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/rogue-one-donald-trump-felicity-jones-
1201947992/
The movie’s one true note of revelation is its explosive topicality, which feels both accidental and inevitable. The relevance wasn’t planned — and if it had been, “Rogue One” would probably be just another didactic liberal message movie. (A rumor fueled by Donald Trump supporters, that the film was rewritten to include anti-Trump sentiments, has turned out to be totally false.) Yet part of the power of “Rogue One” is that as you watch it, the fight against the Empire expresses something in the air, something beyond itself.
I acknowledge: As part of the 53 percent of the electorate who didn’t vote for Donald Trump, it’s easy enough for me to say that the Empire, with its top-down authoritarian menace, equals what the gathering Trump administration is starting to look like. But my real point isn’t about facile fascism. It’s about how the ragtag, hanging-by-a-thread spirit of the Rebel Alliance connects, to an astonishing degree, with the dazed and confused mood that anti-Trump voters now find themselves in. The true subject of “Rogue One” is what it takes to get up and fight, just when you’re starting to be convinced that all hope is lost. Right now, more Democratic voters than you can count feel that way. We feel like our government has been taken over by a figure who got voted in because his supporters wanted, with some legitimacy, to see him “drain the swamp” — and instead, here’s a man who is already rattling the American nuclear saber (and talking about making it bigger and longer), as if it were his own personal Death Star.
For a lot of people, it’s impossible to watch “Rogue One” without thinking of that parallel. The Death Star, the weapon that incarnates the spirit of the Empire, has a power of annihilation that in “Rogue One” — far more than in “Star Wars” — plays off the imagery of nuclear detonation. The movie isn’t about trade policy or racism (though the multi-ethnic cast, led by the Mexican-born Diego Luna’s utilitarian cool as Cassian Andor, makes its own statement). The explicit metaphorical upshot of “Rogue One” is that people who dream of wiping things out with nuclear weapons have to be stopped. They need to be defeated. And Trump is already flirting with becoming that person. You can just imagine his Twitter review of “Rogue One”: “The new Stars Wars movie is junk. A dying franchise. Will someone bring back Harrison Ford — I am tired of these rebel wimps. Boring!”
You’d be hard-pressed to pinpoint where Donald Trump’s fantasies leave off and his policies begin. The galactically ginormous success of “Star Wars” gave rise, over time, to the preeminence of fantasy culture. And while I don’t want to serve up an overly tidy cause-and-effect equation, it seems naïve to imagine that the new, fake-news America has no connection to our all-fantasy-all-the-time movie culture. On a mass scale, we no longer want (or expect) reality at the movies. That makes it easier to stop wanting — or expecting — reality in other places. Put another way: How many of the people who voted for Donald Trump really care if he’s a fantasy-based or even fraudulent politician? He’s an exciting character. That’s what matters. Maybe that’s why “Rogue One” packs a political punch. The movie speaks to its audience in the language of fantasy, and that has a special power when the leadership it’s commenting on threatens to leave reality-based thinking in the dustbin of history.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives,
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SECOND, why do you keep referencing Nate Silver? The guy was right, once. But wrong so often afterwards. His mistake was that he believed the fake polls ... yeah, those polls where Democrats were "oversampled", which led to fake results. Which led to your fake analysis.
If you want to do a real analysis, go look at the Investors Business Daily poll, which (unlike Nate Silver's data) took results every day, and was much more accurate.
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
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"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
"If you aren't aware, Texans don't have much concern for the well-being of Yankees or Californians, even Yankee factory workers in Indiana "- SECOND
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Quote:More accurate? Signym, your preferred pollster is still saying that “Trump Holds 2-Point Lead Over Clinton As Election Day Arrives”. 45% to 43%. But in the real world, Hillary has the 2-point lead. Hillary: 48.1% to Trump: 46.0%
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND, If you want to do a real analysis, go look at the Investors Business Daily poll, which (unlike Nate Silver's data) took results every day, and was much more accurate.
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll
www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president
Signym, Trump cheated. The actual winner of the election is Comey and his two letters to Congress about Hillary being a felony who needs jail time. Comey claimed he was merely notifying Congress that he was energetically seeking the evidence to lockup Hillary and nobody about to vote, according to Comey, will assume Hillary is guilty until a jury convicts her.
www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/21/14025198/trump-undecided-fi
nal-weeks-survey
Signym’s pollster:
www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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New Home Buyers Are Paying a $600 Trump Tax Per Year on Mortgages
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/12/home-buyers-are-paying-600-trum
p-tax-new-mortgages
Matt Yglesias tweeted yesterday about mortgage interest rates going up after the election, and that got me curious about just how quickly they spiked upward after we all learned that Donald Trump would be our next president. The chart above shows the answer: pretty darn quickly.
On November 8, the average 30-year fixed mortgage was available at a rate of 3.53 percent. Within two days it had gone up 21 basis points, and within a week it had gone up 43 basis points. Adjustable mortgages spiked upward too, though not as dramatically, and both rates continued to drift upward until December 14. Then they spiked upward again thanks to the Fed's decision to increase interest rates.
So what does this mean for your ordinary working-class joe who voted for Trump? Well, for a 30-year fixed mortgage on a $200,000 loan, the monthly payment has increased from about $900 to $950. That's an extra $600 per year.
Generally speaking, this spike was due to the fact that everyone panicked after Trump won, causing treasury bond yields to jump 35 basis points in a week. More specifically, however, is it due to China selling US treasuries in greater quantities than usual? Maybe! But whatever the cause, if you waited until after the election to buy a house, you're paying a pretty stiff Trump penalty.
http://myf.red/g/ccse 
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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What are you talking about "Trump Tax"
Obama is still our Aweful 45th President after 8 years of equal and greater terribleness...
Seriously Second... WTF?
Hillary lost 3 times so the new tactic is to blame as much as you can before Obama hands over the horrible reins?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND, why do you keep referencing Nate Silver? The guy was right, once. But wrong so often afterwards. His mistake was that he believed the fake polls ... yeah, those polls where Democrats were "oversampled", which led to fake results. Which led to your fake analysis.
Nate Silver is DONE....
I could jack off and randomly hit a bullseye at any pool hall in the area.
Just remember that as bad as Nate Silver was at predicting the President, he was much worse when Trump won the Primary.
I respect the always nearly accurate "Gallup Polls" who said "fuk this. My name is Paul and this is between y'all".
I agree that noboyd should listen to FAKE NEWS
CNN
MSNBC
even FOX NEWS
The "Legacy Media"
Walk the Dinosaur. (Thank you, Mork. Nanu-Nanu)
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Sorry if this haz been posted alredy:
----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early
http://www.nooalf.com
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Quote:
SECOND, If you want to do a real analysis, go look at the Investors Business Daily poll, which (unlike Nate Silver's data) took results every day, and was much more accurate.- http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll = SIGNY
More accurate?= SECOND
Yes, more accurate
Quote:And YOUR preferred predictor? What was HIS prediction? Based on what polls?
Signym, your preferred pollster is still saying that “Trump Holds 2-Point Lead Over Clinton As Election Day Arrives”. 45% to 43%. But in the real world, Hillary has the 2-point lead. Hillary: 48.1% to Trump: 46.0%
www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president =SEOCND
FiveThirtyEight
Hillary Clinton chance of winning: 71.4%
Donald Trump chance of winning: 28.6%
Hillary Clinton electoral votes 302.2
Donald Trump electoral votes 235.0
Hillary Clinton popular vote 48.5%
Donald Trump popular vote 44.9%
Objectively, the IBD poll was more accurate.
Quote:HOW??? And what does this have to do with Comey? Aren't you just spinning the wheel of excuses again?
Signym, Trump cheated.
Quote:WHOA, that's some serious delusion there.
The actual winner of the election is Comey and his two letters to Congress about Hillary being a felony who needs jail time.
Where in god's name is there anything even remotely like that in Comey's letters???
SECOND, I'm going to a breather from talking to you about Trump. Your extreme concern has pushed you into some dark intense space. Spew away, if you feel you must, but try to open up your scope of thought. Stewing on what happened and trying to rewrite history simply isn't going to work.
Carry on.
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"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
"If you aren't aware, Texans don't have much concern for the well-being of Yankees or Californians, even Yankee factory workers in Indiana "- SECOND
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Quote:Signym, objectively you are full of shit. Your pollster gave Trump a 2-point lead, but Hillary ended with the 2-point lead. Nat Silver gave the odds that Trump would win the electoral vote. It is clear that Signym doesn't understand probability. Stay away from the poker table, race track and other games of chance, unless you are playing against those who know even less than you do.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
FiveThirtyEight
Hillary Clinton chance of winning: 71.4%
Donald Trump chance of winning: 28.6%
Hillary Clinton electoral votes 302.2
Donald Trump electoral votes 235.0
Hillary Clinton popular vote 48.5%
Donald Trump popular vote 44.9%
Objectively, the IBD poll was more accurate.Quote:HOW??? And what does this have to do with Comey? Aren't you just spinning the wheel of excuses again?
Signym, Trump cheated.Quote:WHOA, that's some serious delusion there.
The actual winner of the election is Comey and his two letters to Congress about Hillary being a felony who needs jail time.
Where in god's name is there anything even remotely like that in Comey's letters???
SECOND, I'm going to a breather from talking to you about Trump. Your extreme concern has pushed you into some dark intense space. Spew away, if you feel you must, but try to open up your scope of thought. Stewing on what happened and trying to rewrite history simply isn't going to work.
Carry on.
And Trump cheating? Giuliani asked Comey to write the two letters that would sink Hillary. Then Giuliani ran his mouth on TV. Then Giuliani realized that if he had said it any plainer on TV, he would be indicted. Then Giuliani changed his story to something less incriminating. Giuliani was part of Trump’s campaign and spoke at Trump’s convention.
You can read, and listen to, Giuliani:
Rudy Giuliani Confirms FBI Insiders Leaked Information To The Trump Campaign
“Did I hear about it? You’re darn right I heard about it.”
www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-fbi-clinton-emails_us_581c9
e3fe4b0e80b02c93d6b
Giuliani changes story on FBI
www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/rudy-giuliani-hillary-clinton-email-fb
i/
If I were Obama, I'd have Comey and Giuliani waterboarded until they give the full story. But it won't happen since Obama isn't me. This is the very last chance to know for certain exactly what Comey and Giuliani did and why. Obama will flitter away the time and opportunity, leaving historians guessing and hypothesizing forever.
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Quote:Factually wrong.
Nat Silver gave the odds that Trump would win the electoral vote.= SECOND
One last time:
Quote:
FiveThirtyEight
2016 Election Forecast
President
Updated Nov. 8, 2016
Hillary Clinton chance of winning: 71.4%
Donald Trump chance of winning: 28.6%
Hillary Clinton electoral votes 302.2
Donald Trump electoral votes 235.0
Hillary Clinton popular vote 48.5%
Donald Trump popular vote 44.9%
IBD/TIPP gave Trump a 2-point lead in the pools, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 3.7 lead. Nate Silver predicted that Hillary had a 71% chance of winning. Nate Silver gave Hillary a roughly 70-point electoral college lead (with a number of votes still undecided). Please look at the relevant statistics again.
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"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
"If you aren't aware, Texans don't have much concern for the well-being of Yankees or Californians, even Yankee factory workers in Indiana "- SECOND
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