Is 2016 the year of the Third Party?
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Thursday, June 5, 2025 14:21
VIEWED: 11479
PAGE 4 of 9
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
And Hilliary fell behind Trump in OH, PA, FL. Are these the 3 states that no President has ever won a race without winning one of these 3? Or is it that they won 2 of the 3 of these?
She is winning none of them.
http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-polls-ohio
-pennsylvania-florida-2016-7
Based on only a 2-way race:
With these 3 states going for Trump, if the election were held today, and all other states voted the same as 2012, Trump would win the Electoral College with 273 - assuming no 3rd party Electoral votes.
States that might flip to Hilliary, based upon recent polls:
North Carolina with current Clinton lead 42-40%, worth 15 Electors.
States that might also flip to Trump, based on recent polls:
Nevada, currently Clinton 45-43%, worth 6 Electors.
Iowa, currently tied with 40%, worth 6 Electors.
If these 3 flipped in this way, Trump's Electors would drop to 270, still a win.
Indiana looks safe for Trump, with 8% margin.
Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico look safe for Hilliary currently, with margins of 5, 7, and 9%.
North Carolina only gave 40% for Trump in the primary, but almost half of their delegates to Hilliary in the primary.
Indiana Primary went Trump and Bernie.
Nevada Primary went Trump with 48% and Hilliary with 47%.
Iowa Primary went Cruz, with 25% for Trump, and Hilliary got about half.
Wisconsin Primary went for Cruz and Bernie. This could be a puzzle, but only 10 Electors worth.
New Mexico Primary went Hilliary with about half.
Handy linky:
http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php
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In a 3-way race, some data is hard to get because most polls are not including anybody but Hilliary and Trump.
But some polls are still showing strong support for "Other"
Because of the strong unfavorable ratings for both New York Liberal #1 and new York Liberal #2, it is possible that many of the undecideds could go to a third party.
By adding the "Other" and the "Undecided" results, the total could represent the states most likely to give an Elector outside of Dem/GOP.
24% CO, for 9 Electors. 11% Other, 13% Undecided.
24% OH, for 18 Electors. 9% Other, 15% Undecided.
23% VA, for 13 Electors. 9% Other, 14% Undecided.
22% ME, for 4 Electors. 6% Other, 16% Undecided. Maine gave Perot the second-most votes in 1992.
21% PA, for 20 Electors. 8% Other, 13% Undecided.
21% FL, for 29 Electors. 8%, 13%.
21% WI, for 10 Electors. 5%, 16%.
21% IA, for 6 Electors. 7%, 14%.
18% NC, for 15 Electors. 4%, 14%.
16% GA, for 16 Electors. 3%, 13%.
15% AZ, for 11 Electors. 2%, 13%.
15% NH, for 4 Electors. 1%, 14%.
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After hearing Democrats chanting "Hilliary for Prison" I wonder how unfavorable she becomes in the upcoming polls. This is following Hilliary's latest scandal for subverting Bernie, disenfranchising Democrat voters, directing "news" retailers which fake stories to push and on which dates, etc.
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Libertarian Party nears 15%, enough to be included in Campaign debates.
http://www.inquisitr.com/3339487/gary-johnson-polls-as-libertarian-can
didate-nears-15-percent-mark-needed-to-join-debates-new-poll-shows-johnson-could-win-in-utah/
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Another recent poll shows Gary Johnson is drawing from Trump's numbers, and Jill Stein (the first female Presidential Nominee of this year) is drawing from Hilliary's numbers.
http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/gary-johnson-donald-trump-poll/2016/07/
21/id/739764/
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Recent poll: Gary Johnson gains, Trump moves ahead of Hilliary nationwide.
Of course, the nationwide polls are meaningless, except for qualifying inclusion in the debates.
Difficult to find polls which are including more than New York Liberal #1 and New York Liberal #2 in specific states. Looks like many states are considered tossups, yet no online poll data available.
http://www.inquisitr.com/3357391/gary-johnson-jill-stein-are-both-poll
ing-at-record-highs-are-americans-finally-waking-up-the-third-parties/
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From your link:
'The poll found 21 percent of likely voters will not back Trump or Clinton. That compares with about 13 percent of likely voters who opted out of the two main choices at the same point in the 2012 race between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
The poll also showed a majority of American voters have an overall "unfavorable" view of both main candidates, with 46 percent of Clinton supporters and 47 percent of Trump supporters saying their top priority when voting will be to stop the opposing candidate from reaching the White House.'
The Democrats needlessly shot themselves by shoe-horning Hillary into the slot, instead of letting the voters' choice freely play out. Hence the Democratic flight to 'other' candidates.
From my very small, non-representative vantage point, the lifelong Democrats I work with (and there are only about 2 republicans in 40 people) are planning on voting in this ratio: 2 Hillary : 1 Donald : 1 Gary : 1 undecided. So Hillary is getting less than half the historic Democratic vote.
I'd argue that Donald is also a third party, who just happens to be running under the moniker 'Republican'. But as a mis-labelled third-party, his personal negatives are high enough that ANOTHER third party candidate is also drawing substantial numbers.
Let me just point out that the author left out vital relevant facts in the opinion piece. Doing that is known as cherry-picking. And whether you do that in the news, in discussion, in debate or in opinion, when you distort the facts, you've changed the nature of your communication into propaganda. But WE don't have any of THAT in the US, do we?!
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Quote:Thanks for your poll.
Originally posted by 1kiki:
From your link:
'The poll found 21 percent of likely voters will not back Trump or Clinton. That compares with about 13 percent of likely voters who opted out of the two main choices at the same point in the 2012 race between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
The poll also showed a majority of American voters have an overall "unfavorable" view of both main candidates, with 46 percent of Clinton supporters and 47 percent of Trump supporters saying their top priority when voting will be to stop the opposing candidate from reaching the White House.'
The Democrats needlessly shot themselves by shoe-horning Hillary into the slot, instead of letting the voters' choice freely play out. Hence the Democratic flight to 'other' candidates.
From my very small, non-representative vantage point, the lifelong Democrats I work with (and there are only about 2 republicans in 40 people) are planning on voting in this ratio: 2 Hillary : 1 Donald : 1 Gary : 1 undecided. So Hillary is getting less than half the historic Democratic vote.
I'd argue that Donald is also a third party, who just happens to be running under the moniker 'Republican'. But as a mis-labelled third-party, his personal negatives are high enough that ANOTHER third party candidate is also drawing substantial numbers.
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Libertarian and Green parties are splitting the former Bernie voters, but Libertarian is swooping the former Cruz voters.
http://www.redstate.com/brandon_morse/2016/07/27/parties-lose-disaffec
ted-voters-gary-johnson-wins/
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Libertarian and Green parties are splitting the former Bernie voters, but Libertarian is swooping the former Cruz voters.
http://www.redstate.com/brandon_morse/2016/07/27/parties-lose-disaffec
ted-voters-gary-johnson-wins/
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