The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, July 16, 2024 10:38
VIEWED: 5093
PAGE 9 of 10
Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:6ix, Bruce Nash does not know you and doesn't want to. The Numbers was launched by Bruce Nash on October 17th, 1997.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Apes sits at $245,736,744 worldwide going into Weekend 3.
Bruce predicts . . .
6ix, why are you so verbose? Are you pretending to be working with Bruce Nash? Because your length words are not adding any value to his numbers:
Worldwide Box Office $245,736,744
Production Budget: $160,000,000 (worldwide box office is 1.6 times production budget)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Kingdom-of-the-Planet-of-the-Apes-(2
024)#tab=summary
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Nah.
I usually shit talk Bruce because he's a woke dummy and my predictions are usually more accurate than his computer models.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nah.
I usually shit talk Bruce because he's a woke dummy and my predictions are usually more accurate than his computer models.
Case in point, I knew his prediction that Apes only loses -34% this weekend was low.
Quote:
Bruce predicts a 4th place finish for Apes at $16.7 Million, or a -34% drop from last weekend. I think that might be a little charitable after his prediction last week of a -60% drop. Last weekend it didn't lose any theaters and dropped -56%, but this weekend it loses 525 theaters.
It made $3,400,000 on Friday, which was a -50% drop even from last week.
He should probably be better at his job if he's been working on those computer models for 27 years. I'm just using my brain and Microsoft's calculator, and I've only been at this for about 1 year now.
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Oh, and look at that...
Bruce still doesn't have M3GAN on the Top 100 list for 2023, something I caught about a year ago.
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cu
mulative/released-in-2023
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/M3GAN#tab=summary
With $181,134,416 Worldwide, it should be in 44th place, which means that if there isn't any more fuckups on his end, more than half of his Top 100 for 2023 is not legitimate, and his entire page 2 for 101-195 is incorrect as well.
Oops.
And he's the guy that people pay for this type of data.
You got it twisted, idiot. I'm the guy who doesn't want to know Bruce Nash.
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No reply to any of that, huh bigmouth?
That's what I thought, you little brainlet.
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Still no replies out of you on this one today though, huh bitch?
I guess we'll just have to wait until the pirates leak the movie so you can put Haken's site at further risk with more of your unsolicited pirate links before you post in here again.
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You've been posting in all the other cinema threads for days, but still won't touch this one, huh pussy?
You're a waste of carbon dude.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
May 19th:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Bruce is predicting a pretty big 60% this weekend in the US for only $23.4 Million and a drop to 2nd place. He doesn't go into any detail at all about Apes in the prediction article.
Regardless of how it does Internationally, it should be quite a bit less of a drop than 60% simply because we get their new numbers for all week instead of just the weekend numbers. Typically if that film was doing well last year, it amounted to essentially doubling opening weekend's numbers. With a 60% drop in the US on 2nd weekend, maybe that amounts to 85% of the first weekend internationally?
Bruce's $23.4 Million added to the current worldwide total would be just shy of $171.5 Million worldwide.
Let's say 85% of last weekend's $75 Million on top of it.
So maybe we see around $235 Million come Monday?
Maybe Bruce is full of shit and it does $35 Million in the US this weekend and an extra $12 Million internationally and we're well over $250 Million on Monday?
Who knows.... It's all guessing right now.
I'd say I'm still pretty good at guessing even in the weird 2024 market.
$237,539,501 is the grand total right now with the internationals tallied and the Studio projections for the weekend.
Bruce predicted only $23.4 Million in the US this weekend, and the projections in the US are $26 Million.
That low prediction accounts for the $2.539 Million I was low on the worldwide prediction, which means that my international guess for the weekend was spot on.
It's now at 148.5% of the production budget.
My Low/High prediction for the final numbers was $350 Million to $475 Million. I'm still going with that number, but as I said after Friday's numbers came out I think it will be toward the lower end of that prediction and it will not break even.
Apes sits at $245,736,744 worldwide going into Weekend 3.
Bruce predicts a 4th place finish for Apes at $16.7 Million, or a -34% drop from last weekend. I think that might be a little charitable after his prediction last week of a -60% drop. Last weekend it didn't lose any theaters and dropped -56%, but this weekend it loses 525 theaters.
To be fair though, that 1st to 2nd weekend -56% drop includes Thursday Preview Night's $6.6 Million which obviously only the 1st weekend benefits from, so the actual drop was only -51% without the preview night numbers. But still, I think a drop here of only -34% is wishful thinking with Apes losing more than 1/8th of the theaters it was showing in last weekend.
The international drop will be quite a bit more this weekend that last as well, since only the 2nd weekend drop is mitigated by the fact that we only get International updates once per week, and the first "week" is only the weekend numbers internationally, but the 2nd week numbers are for the full week following opening weekend.
Apes made $8,759,462 between Monday and Thursday this week. Subtract that from the current US total of $109,449,252, and you've got $100.7 Million. $100.7 Million was 42.5% of the Worldwide Box Office after the final numbers for Weekend 2 were tallied.
If Bruce is right about another $16.7 Million over the weekend in the US and that 42.5% holds steady, that would result in $126 Million in the US and $171 Internationally for about $297 Million worldwide after 3 weekends.
My guess on May 13th was that it would make +/- 15% from the breakeven point, or $350 Million to $475 Million, but I've always thought it would be toward the low end of that projection.
Nothing I'm seeing here changes my mind on that. In fact, I'm thinking that $350 is a pretty good target for the final number. I don't see any path to $400 Million for Apes anymore. Next weekend it should only add between $20 and $30 Million max, and those numbers jNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Apes hit $300 Million worldwide this week and now sits at $302,372,046.
Bruce predicts $9.37 Million for the weekend, or a -30% drop.
Once again, I think that's a very low drop at this point. I think Bruce is suffering from some wishful thinking here since he's just predicted a catastrophically bad end-of-May weekend.
But who knows? Maybe with nothing exciting coming out this weekend it doesn't see as big a drop as I'm expecting.
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Shockingly, Apes only lost -34% this weekend according to projections, or $8.8 Million.
By his own admission, 9 out of the Top 10 movies this week failed to meet his predictions. The 10th movie, In a Violent Nature, wasn't even predicted to make the Top 10. So that means that all 10 of Bruce's predictions this week failed.
He doesn't have it in his charts yet, but he did mention current international figures for a few movies that are new info.
According to his weekly projection article, Apes is now at $197.1 Million internationally, which means it pulled in just shy of $26 Million internationally last week.
Worldwide total would be at around $336.8 Million after Weekend 4.
It needs around $63.2 Million to break even now. That's a tall hill to climb one month into its run. It's still a slim possibility if the summer box office remains weak and apes stays in theaters for a while.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Worldwide total would be at around $336.8 Million after Weekend 4.
It needs around $63.2 Million to break even now. That's a tall hill to climb one month into its run. It's still a slim possibility if the summer box office remains weak and apes stays in theaters for a while.
$359,791,582 after Weekend 5.
Inching along toward that $400 Million breakeven point. $40 Million to go.
Apes only saw a -40% drop off from last weekend, but it still hasn't really lost a lot of theaters yet. It probably will lose quite a few next weekend.
Assuming the international trends are mirroring the US trends on this, two more -40% drops would have it sitting right around $382 Million. Four more -40% drops would see it at roughly $390 Million.
I don't think it's going to hit the breakeven point.
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