Elections; 2024
POSTED BY: THG
UPDATED: Friday, November 21, 2025 00:12
VIEWED: 206031
PAGE 438 of 514
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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
Originally posted by second:
With the 2024 election already upon us, many people have heard that Donald Trump and JD Vance plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants if they are elected in November, but what does this really mean and look like? Allan Lichtman discusses.
What Lictman should be talking about is why he trashed his rating system.
I don't think it should belong in his hands anymore. The Keys system is great, but he did not properly attribute those keys in this crazy election season. He shouldn't have made his prediction until today.
Now he's busy doing a tour defending his horrible pick this year.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
Speaking of Lichtman... Here's a podcast with Nate Silver just 2 days ago.
Nate Silver: The 'Keys to the White House' is junk science and can't tell you who'll win
Given its track record, I don't believe that I agree with Nate here. But if you don't properly assess the situation when handing those keys out, the system doesn't work. Lichtman did not properly hand out those keys this year. The "True" for both "Strong short-term economy" and "Strong long-term economy" are just downright laughable, but are hardly the only keys that were misappropriated by Lichtman in 2024. Giving Harris the key for "No Primary Contest" is just dubious, given the events of the last several months. There was a primary, and Harris wasn't even in it.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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Not votes: registration applications
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[60%] Fraud Found Among 2,500 Voter Registration Forms Submitted En Masse In PA County
Police in the 2024 battleground state of Pennsylvania are investigating some 2,500 voter registration forms that were submitted in two massive batches -- and investigators say that 60% of the forms they've checked so far are fraudulent. All of the ballots were submitted in Lancaster County, but two other counties are scrutinizing similarly suspect batches. While officials say it's the work of a "large-scale canvassing operation," they're not yet saying who's behind it.
The roughly 2,500 applications landed at or near Pennsylvania's Oct 21 registration deadline; some observers are speculating that the timing may have been tactical, with the intent of exploiting time-pressure administrators would be under ahead of the Nov. 5 Election Day. However, as they examined the massive heap of forms, application processors were immediately alarmed by what they saw:
Multiple applications with the same handwriting and signatures
Many forms filled out on the same day
Applications for previously-registered voters whose signatures on the forms did not match the ones on file
Lancaster County District Attorney Heather Adams briefs reporters on the investigation of fraudulent voter registrations (via WGAL)
That prompted a police investigation, and Lancaster County detectives soon confirmed many of the applications were fraudulent. Indications of fraud included:
Inaccurate addresses
False personal identification information
False names
Names that didn't match the Social Security Number on the form
In many cases, forms had accurate data, but the supposed applicants told detectives they had neither requested nor completed the forms, and confirmed that the signatures were not theirs. In all, 60% of the applications that have been vetted so far were found to be fraudulent.
"It's believed that the fraudulent voter registrations are connected to a large-scale canvassing operation for voter registrations that date back to June," said Lancaster County District Attorney Heather Adams in a Friday press conference. "The majority of applications received are dated August 15 and after. Those canvassing for voter registrations were employed and paid to obtain voter registration applications."
Donald Trump enters a July 31 rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (Spencer Platt/Getty Images via Penn Capital-Star)
Adams declined to provide details about the canvassing organization, or the names of individual suspects. The fraudulent forms included registrations for both Democrats and Republicans. However, "for the general election, [the party affiliation of a bogus registration] really wouldn't matter," noted Adams. She did note that the canvassing operation primarily took place at shopping centers, parking lots, parks, grocery stores, sidewalks and businesses. The fraudulent activity took a variety of forms, from completely bogus applications to ones where a real voter had started registering but then decided not to move forward, only to have an application submitted for them anyway.
"Forgery of an application, which we have seen evidence of, would be a felony of the third degree punishable by up to seven years in prison and a $15,000 fine," said Adams, adding that one provision of the legal code would also enforce a 10-year loss of voting privileges.
Adams said they had all available detectives assigned to the case, who are working under pressure of the approaching Election Day. "[The fraud] appears to be an organized effort at this point," she said, and noted that two other Pennsylvania counties are investigating similarly suspicious batches of registration applications. She declined to name them, but the Berks County DA told the Philadelphia Inquirer "We believe we have some and will be looking into them." Pennsylvanians can check their own voter registraNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
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SIX: Given its track record, I don't believe that I agree with Nate here. But if you don't properly assess the situation when handing those keys out, the system doesn't work. Lichtman did not properly hand out those keys this year. The "True" for both "Strong short-term economy" and "Strong long-term economy" are just downright laughable, but are hardly the only keys that were misappropriated by Lichtman in 2024. Giving Harris the key for "No Primary Contest" is just dubious, given the events of the last several months. There was a primary, and Harris wasn't even in it.
I agree. I think his attempt to predict the outcome based on large scale objective factors, and not horse races of subjective opinions, is admirable and should be developed.
So about a month ago, I listened to a description of how those keys were awarded and I was shocked at how distorted the process was. GIGO. I wondered what would break first: the system, if objectively applied (Trump win), or his (IMHO) obviously biased application.
*****
But there's still plenty of time for cheating!
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA
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Quote:Nate assumes that what a voter tells a pollster will match what the voter does at the polls. Ha-ha! You are a sucker, Nate.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Given its track record, I don't believe that I agree with Nate here.
A pollster (Gallup) called my sister's house. I could have said whatever I pleased to the pollster. I could say that I was voting for Trump. That I would not be voting. That I was an illegal alien. That Jill Stein should be elected. I could say anything.
Nat Silver depends on the polls being truthful, that someone like me is not screwing things up deliberately. Meanwhile, Lichtman depends on measurable facts but would be in the same situation as Nat Silver if Lichtman asked a random sample of people what they think the facts truly are, in their random and ill-informed opinions.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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D.E. Wilson, Jr. -- Ronald Reagan Alum
Oct 25, 2024
Asked by a reporter at a Harris rally why I support Kamala Harris for President, I smiled. I am a Republican who got his start hanging door tags for Goldwater, campaigned for Republicans, and worked for President Reagan. So, I said, here are the reasons:
4. I believe debt matters. Mr. Trump’s policies will increase the national debt and drive-up inflation. Don’t take it from me – listen to the conservative economists in the WSJ. Here, I added that we owe it to the next generation to reduce the debt, not grow it.
7. I believe in controlling our borders. This takes bipartisanship, not mass deportation. Mr. Trump doesn’t want to control our southern border he just wants an issue to use as a scare tactic. He had his chance.
I thanked the reporter for asking me and closed by saying that while I disagree with some of Ms. Harris’ policy proposals (and on increasing the debt), these are issues we can discuss as Americans. With Mr. Trump I would be subject to arrest. I hope this gives the reader a way to think about the upcoming election.
https://rbmralumni4harris.substack.com/p/de-wilson-jr-ronald-reagan-al
um
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Another republican lie put to rest.
T 
Republicans finally get the news they've FEARED in Georgia
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:Nate assumes that what a voter tells a pollster will match what the voter does at the polls. Ha-ha! You are a sucker, Nate.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Given its track record, I don't believe that I agree with Nate here.
Oh. The polls don't matter now because they're not telling you what you want to hear.
Quote:
A pollster (Gallup) called my sister's house. I could have said whatever I pleased to the pollster. I could say that I was voting for Trump. That I would not be voting. That I was an illegal alien. That Jill Stein should be elected. I could say anything.
Why stop at you lying to the pollster? We already know that the pollsters lie to us by hiding away their bias deep down inside of their polling methodologies where nobody but autists like me ever look. They're all run by human beings. Human beings are liars.
There are a million reasons why polls can be inaccurate, and 999,999 of them have nothing to do with you specifically. I know that's hard for you to comprehend since you are the only person that matters in your world.
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Nat Silver depends on the polls being truthful, that someone like me is not screwing things up deliberately. Meanwhile, Lichtman depends on measurable facts but would be in the same situation as Nat Silver if Lichtman asked a random sample of people what they think the facts truly are, in their random and ill-informed opinions.
Incorrect.
Licthman's KEYS depend on measurable facts.
Licthman himself has proven with his pick this year that he is human and/or he is a liar. Harris does not hold nearly as many keys as Licthman claims she does. Not only is one of the keys not even applicable to the present situation, but there are good arguments that several others didn't apply this election cycle as well. Rather than make adjustments for this to his keys system in this unprecedented election cycle, he chose to just give them all to Harris. And nobody in your media would ever fact check that, so here we are.
His failure to predict the correct outcome of the 2024 election was not a failure of the Keys system. It was operator error.
The Keys system isn't what needs to be replaced. It is the person holding the keys that needs to be retired.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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If you want to complain about the 13 Keys, I'd start with the weight of each Key being exactly 1.000000. Could one key be twice as important as another? Maybe!
Why does Key 2 have the same weight as Key 10? One seems trivial compared to other:
Key 2 (no primary contest) is turned true if the incumbent party nominee wins at least two-thirds of the total delegate vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention, with no deep and vocal party divisions.
Key 10 (no foreign or military failure) is turned false if a failure occurs that is perceived to undermine the standing of the United States and/or erode trust in the president's leadership. Lichtman cites the attack on Pearl Harbor under Franklin D. Roosevelt, the botched Bay of Pigs invasion under John F. Kennedy, North Vietnamese victory in the Vietnam War under Gerald Ford, and the Iranian hostage crisis under Jimmy Carter as failures that turned the key false.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
If you want to complain about the 13 Keys.
I didn't complain about the keys. Only how they were handed out this time.
Weighted as 1.00000000 each, Licthman has correctly predicted the last 9 out of 10 elections.
He didn't attribute the keys where they belonged this year. And as I said before, at least one and as many as 3 keys didn't even apply to the 2024 election, but he just gave them all to Harris anyhow. And saying that both the short-term and long-term economy has been strong under the Harris/Biden* administration is objectively false.
Somewhere around here back when Lichtman made his initial prediction I listed what the keys actually were. Some of that the Legacy Media like CNN even admits these things now as it finally starts asking Harris hard questions and forcing her to answer them just two weeks before the election. I didn't think Anderson had it in him... and honestly, when the CIA starts opening the door for Trump like that I start questioning why they're all turning on Harris this late in the game and what their real plan here is.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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Quote:Key 5 (strong short-term economy) is turned false if the economy is in recession during the election campaign. The National Bureau of Economic Research has not officially declared a recession. Therefore, you are in error, 6ix.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
And saying that both the short-term and long-term economy has been strong under the Harris/Biden* administration is objectively false.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Keys_5_and_6
:_Strong_long-term_and_short-term_economy
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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