new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, September 24, 2020 1:26 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have been wondering what effect the travel rate of Americans has had on the caseload, the rate of infection.

I'll post some lists to ruminate on.

https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/IS.AIR.PSGR/rankings

Rank Country Value Year
1 United States 889,022,000.00 2018
2 China 611,439,800.00 2018
3 Ireland 167,598,600.00 2018
4 United Kingdom 165,388,600.00 2018
5 India 164,035,600.00 2018
6 Japan 126,387,500.00 2018
7 Turkey 115,595,500.00 2018
8 Indonesia 115,154,100.00 2018
9 Germany 109,796,200.00 2018
10 Brazil 102,110,000.00 2018
11 Russia 99,327,310.00 2018
12 United Arab Emirates 95,533,070.00 2018
13 Canada 89,380,000.00 2018
14 Korea 88,157,580.00 2018
15 Spain 80,672,100.00 2018
16 Thailand 76,053,040.00 2018
17 Australia 75,667,650.00 2018
18 France 70,188,030.00 2018
19 Mexico 64,569,640.00 2018
20 Malaysia 60,481,770.00 2018
21 Hong Kong SAR, China 47,101,820.00 2018
22 Vietnam 47,049,670.00 2018
23 Netherlands 43,996,040.00 2018
24 Philippines 43,080,120.00 2018
25 Singapore 40,401,520.00 2018
26 Saudi Arabia 39,141,660.00 2018
27 Colombia 33,704,040.00 2018
28 Hungary 31,226,850.00 2018
29 Qatar 29,178,920.00 2018
30 Switzerland 28,857,990.00 2018
31 Italy 27,630,440.00 2018
32 Iran 25,604,870.00 2018
33 South Africa 23,921,750.00 2018
34 Chile 19,517,180.00 2018
35 Argentina 18,081,940.00 2018
36 Peru 17,758,530.00 2018
37 Portugal 17,367,960.00 2018
38 New Zealand 17,249,050.00 2018
39 Greece 15,125,930.00 2018
40 Belgium 13,639,490.00 2018

Wow, I did not realize how fitting this info was. USA is 5 times the air travel rate as the 3rd ranked. China and USA are alone in the stratosphere above the next plateau of 3.

USA also has large domestic air travel, while Wuhan air travel was locked down to anywhere within China, but Wuhan to the rest of the world was continued and encouraged.

This really seems to far more relevant to the case rate and spread in US, compared to all of these other pretexts.

1KIKI

Thursday, September 24, 2020 2:14 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I'd appreciate a name to track this down in all its finer details.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll try to find it. I don't recall hearing the actual name, or remembering what it sounded like.

In April, Luc Montagnier - France.
3 August, Dr. Li-Meng Yan - Wuhan China

Wow, they seem to really have that buried well. Haven't found the right combo of terms yet.
He escaped from Peoples Liberation Army, where he worked.

THANKS for the efforts!

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, September 26, 2020 1:14 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
What you are missing is reproductive log function that living things have. It starts out very slowly, when the initial numbers are low, so it never looks like much at the start. It's very deceiving that way. But then it takes off ...

2^2 = 4
4^2 = 16
16^2 = 256
256^2 = 65,536
65,536^2 = 4,294,967,296
4,294,967,296^2 = 14,844,674,407,000,000,000

... in only 6 steps ... and so on.

Once the virus is in a population, unless active measures are taken to suppress it, the numbers would zoom up anyway. And when you're looking for the start of exponential growth you have to look where the numbers are low, not where they've already gotten high. So, imo, it would be very difficult to say the increase - which btw started earlier than you think - is due to some random but relatively small number of imports, or the natural mathematics of biological increase.

I presume that just about everybody here except you can see that your data set does not match the actual graph or data from Portland cases.
On the other hand, I presume most of the same folk can see that the description I provided does fit the Real World data accurately.

SIGNYM

Saturday, September 26, 2020 8:16 AM

From ZH, fwiw

Quote:
Breakthrough Research On Severe COVID-19 Infections Opens Door To New Treatment

So far, scientists have figured out that being male, elderly, and having underlying medical conditions can all raise risk factors for patients. But even patients who check all these boxes don't always experience serious symptoms. Scientists suspect that several factors influence severity, including pre-existing levels of inflammation, natural immunity levels, and the amount and strain of virus that starts the infection - along with variations in patients' genetic makeup.

As has been previously reported, many patients suffer the worst of the symptoms for COVID-19 due to an immune system overreaction called a "cytokine storm". As Dr. Fauci once explained, while "too little immunity is no good"..."too much immunity is really, really bad".

Now, researchers have discovered the role of a critical protein which could open the door to a new potential COVID-19 treatment.

Studies comparing reactions to COVID-19 in siblings have unearthed an interesting detail: the availability of a substance called interferon. Interferons are signaling proteins that help orchestrate the body’s defense against viral pathogens; they're used to treat diseases like Hepatitis C.

A growing body of evidence, including twin landmark studies published Thursday in the journal "Science" showed that "insufficient" interferon levels may be a dangerous precursor to a serious infection. As one researcher explained, the data suggest the virus uses this "one big trick" to slip past the body's initial defense systems.

"It looks like this virus has one big trick," said Shane Crotty, a professor in the Center for Infectious Disease and Vaccine Research at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California. "That big trick is to avoid the initial innate immune response for a significant period of time and, in particular, avoid an early type-1 interferon response."

The research highlights the potential for interferon-based therapies to expand a range of non-vaccine-related treatments, like Gilead's remdesivir and convalescent plasma.

Research shows the timing of medical intervention is also critical.

"We think timing may be essential because it’s only in the very early phase one can really battle the virus particles and defend against infection," said Alexander Hoischen, head of the genomic technologies and immuno-genomics group at Radboud University Medical Center in Nijmegen that analyzed the DNA of the two sets of brothers.

Then again, some people are believed to have trouble fighting infections because they make antibodies that deactivate their own interferon. On Thursday, a global consortium of researchers said such immune reactions to the protein could account for life-threatening pneumonia in at least 2.6% of women and 12.5% of men that causes inflammation in the patient's lungs.

Findings from the research offer the first explanation for the significantly higher mortality rate seen in male and elderly COVID-19 patients.

Interferon-blocking antibodies appeared in 101 of 987 patients with severe disease, but none of the 663 people with an asymptomatic or mild case, according to the research being published in "Science". Patients over 65 were also more likely than younger ones to have the autoimmune abnormality, which was "clinically silent until the patients were infected with SARS-CoV-2," said a group of more than 100 scientists said.

Researchers estimated that Inteferon issues might underlie as many as 14% of fatalities and the most severe cases.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/breakthrough-research-severe-co
vid-19-infections-opens-door-new-treatment

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, September 29, 2020 2:15 AM

I heard Fake News report over the weekend that all Midwest States are increasing their cases, and their positivity rates. If they are like WI, then the majority of new cases are coming from college kids, age 18-24. Which means, outside of kiki's magical world, deaths will not rise after any lag time from these cases.

3rd graph on this page:
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, September 29, 2020 4:40 AM

Get ready for 4 more years of the virus.

The only way the Legacy Media stops talking about it is if Biden wins, which isn't going to happen.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

1KIKI

Tuesday, September 29, 2020 4:58 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I heard Fake News report over the weekend that all Midwest States are increasing their cases, and their positivity rates. If they are like WI, then the majority of new cases are coming from college kids, age 18-24. Which means, outside of kiki's magical world, deaths will not rise after any lag time from these cases.

3rd graph on this page:
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm

FYI - I don't need your statements and tidbits to see which way things are going. Cases had a first peak at day 37, deaths had a first peak at day 50; cases had a second peak at day 142, deaths at day 154. Cases are going up again but haven't reached a peak.

Sp I'll just wait and see.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, September 29, 2020 5:26 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Get ready for 4 more years of the virus.

The only way the Legacy Media stops talking about it is if Biden wins, which isn't going to happen.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I'm not sure. Maybe it all ends on November 5th, no matter which way the vote goes.

Anyhow, those who want 4 more years of Virus are going to vote for Dem Governor, so they all deserve the Government they Elect. Same for Sheriff, Mayor, Congressperson, etc.

SIGNYM

Friday, October 2, 2020 2:05 PM

THIS IS A HUGELY LONG READ.

Quote:
There’s something strange about this coronavirus pandemic. Even after months of extensive research by the global scientific community, many questions remain open.

Why, for instance, was there such an enormous death toll in northern Italy, but not the rest of the country? Just three contiguous regions in northern Italy have 25,000 of the country’s nearly 36,000 total deaths; just one region, Lombardy, has about 17,000 deaths. Almost all of these were concentrated in the first few months of the outbreak. What happened in Guayaquil, Ecuador, in April, when so many died so quickly that bodies were abandoned in the sidewalks and streets?* Why, in the spring of 2020, did so few cities account for a substantial portion of global deaths, while many others with similar density, weather, age distribution, and travel patterns were spared? What can we really learn from Sweden, hailed as a great success by some because of its low case counts and deaths as the rest of Europe experiences a second wave, and as a big failure by others because it did not lock down and suffered excessive death rates earlier in the pandemic? Why did widespread predictions of catastrophe in Japan not bear out? The baffling examples go on.

I’ve heard many explanations for these widely differing trajectories over the past nine months—weather, elderly populations, vitamin D, prior immunity, herd immunity—but none of them explains the timing or the scale of these drastic variations. But there is a potential, overlooked way of understanding this pandemic that would help answer these questions, reshuffle many of the current heated arguments, and, crucially, help us get the spread of COVID-19 under control.

By now many people have heard about R0—the basic reproductive number of a pathogen, a measure of its contagiousness on average. But unless you’ve been reading scientific journals, you’re less likely to have encountered k, the measure of its dispersion. The definition of k is a mouthful, but it’s simply a way of asking whether a virus spreads in a steady manner or in big bursts, whereby one person infects many, all at once. After nine months of collecting epidemiological data, we know that this is an overdispersed pathogen, meaning that it tends to spread in clusters, but this knowledge has not yet fully entered our way of thinking about the pandemic—or our preventive practices.

Read: Herd immunity is not a strategy

The now-famed R0 (pronounced as “r-naught”) is an average measure of a pathogen’s contagiousness, or the mean number of susceptible people expected to become infected after being exposed to a person with the disease. If one ill person infects three others on average, the R0 is three. This parameter has been widely touted as a key factor in understanding how the pandemic operates. News media have produced multiple explainers and visualizations for it. Movies praised for their scientific accuracy on pandemics are lauded for having characters explain the “all-important” R0. Dashboards track its real-time evolution, often referred to as R or Rt, in response to our interventions. (If people are masking and isolating or immunity is rising, a disease can’t spread the same way anymore, hence the difference between R0 and R.)

Unfortunately, averages aren’t always useful for understanding the distribution of a phenomenon, especially if it has widely varying behavior. If Amazon’s CEO, Jeff Bezos, walks into a bar with 100 regular people in it, the average wealth in that bar suddenly exceeds $1 billion. If I also walk into that bar, not much will change. Clearly, the average is not that useful a number to understand the distribution of wealth in that bar, or how to change it. Sometimes, the mean is not the message. Meanwhile, if the bar has a person infected with COVID-19, and if it is also poorly ventilated and loud, causing people to speak loudly at close range, almost everyone in the room could potentially be infected—a pattern that’s been observed many times since the pandemic begin, and that is simila

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SIGNYM

Friday, October 9, 2020 10:29 PM

Headlines are looking like this

Quote:
Spanish Government Seals Off Madrid As COVID-19 Crisis Worsens; Merkel Says "Tougher Measures" Coming: Live Updates
ummary:

Italy tops 5,000 new cases
Spanish gov't locks down Madrid
Merkel says she will impose tougher measures if no improvement seen in ten days
London mayor says lockdown "inevitable"
Netherland reports latest record jump
Spain declares "public health emergency" in Madrid
France places more cities on lockdown
Confirmed COVID-19 cases neared daily record yesterday
Russia reports new record
Takeda enrolls first patients for new drug trial
China joins WHO vaccine initiative
Iran bars hospitals from taking non-urgent cases as COVID hammers country

* * *

Update (1100ET): Italy just recorded 5,372 new cases on Friday, topping 5,000 new cases for the first time since March 29, according to JHU data. Yesterday, Italy reported 4,458 new cases, which was, at the time, the largest daily tally since April 11.

see chart here: (insert https:) //zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ITALYMAP.jpg?itok=pWEIDMO4

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/frances-expands-localized-lockdowns-
global-covid-19-cases-see-near-record-jump-live-updates

Australia's prolonged lockdown is just ... brutal. And nonsensical, since they've included a curfew (why? Is the virus more contagious at night?)

In Melbourne, the restrictions are

Quote:
– No traveling more than 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) from their homes;

– No traveling to other states inside of the country;

– Those under house arrest [everyone] are permitted to leave home for just one hour each day for exercise;

– Only one person is permitted to go shopping per family each day; shopping is to be done within 5 kilometers from home;

– Unlike traditional prisons, visitations are not permitted to house arrestees;

– All school activities are to be conducted online;

– All businesses, services and construction cancelled;

– Organized sport, forget it;

– In the case of funerals, try and delay your demise if at all possible, otherwise, expect just 10 guests;

– Ditto for weddings;

– Curfew in effect between 8 pm and 5 am.

Meanwhile, as to be expected, the authorities have been enthusiastic about meting out their street justice on people who allegedly violate the regime’s rules. And not just on the street. The police have been authorized to enter private residences without a warrant.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/12/letters-from-melbour
ne-ghost-town-police-state-under-brutal-covid-lockdown/

SOME jurisdictions have used Covid-19 as an excuse to ban the sale of guns(??) and alcohol.

There are two things missing from the latest uptick:

Deaths, and masks.

When people start runnig around with their hair on fire about "cases", the first thing I do is check divoc-91 for attendant "deaths". And so far, I'm not seeing the same meteoritic rise.

Quote:
In the last several weeks, Melbourne has introduced shockingly draconian anti-Covid measures, imposed on the metropolis of some 5 million souls. What tragedy was responsible for spurring officials to leap into action? To blame was a fractional uptick in the number of coronavirus deaths – seven to be exact, and all involving citizens above the age of 70 years old.

The media jumped on the “new single-day record in Victoria,” which brought the state death toll to 56. I repeat, 56, and the overwhelming majority of those cases involved elderly people in nursing facilities, some of which are under investigation for their handling of patients. While it goes without saying that elderly lives matter, do seven elderly deaths really warrant the shutdown of one of Australia’s busiest cities?

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/12/letters-from-melbour
ne-ghost-town-police-state-under-bruta

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